WASDE-411 June 10, 2004 Note: Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are down 4 million bushels from last month as smaller production is partially offset by larger carryin stocks. Forecast winter wheat production is 20 million bushels below last month because of lower yields, especially in several major hard red winter producing States. Projected use is unchanged from last month but is down 190 million bushels from last year. The projected price range is unchanged at $3.25 to $3.85 per bushel. Forecast 2003/04 U.S. wheat ending stocks are up 15 million bushels due to lower-than-expected exports. The 2004/05 global outlook for wheat has shifted modestly from last month with projected production rising, trade increasing, and stocks growing. Projected 2004/05 global production is up nearly 5 million tons, with foreign production up just over 5 million tons from last month, led by increases for Russia, the EU-25, China, and Iran. Projected global trade is also up from last month, mostly due to increased imports by Iraq of wheat purchased in 2003/04 but not shipped until 2004/05. This year's EU-25 crop is forecast at a record 128 million tons, up 1 million tons from last month and nearly 21 million tons above last year. As a result of this large crop, EU-25 exports are projected at 15 million tons, up 1 million tons from last month and up nearly 6 million tons from last year. Projected Russian exports are up 1 million tons, offsetting a decline in India's exports. Projected global consumption is raised by nearly 2 million tons. Global ending stocks are up 3 million tons from last month but are still more than 2 million tons below the 2003/04 level. The combined 2004/05 stocks of the major foreign exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25) and the former Soviet Union are only marginally higher than last month but are up over 8 million tons from last year. COARSE GRAINS: The 2004/05 outlook for U.S. feed grains is unchanged from last month, with no changes to production, use, and prices. Corn prices in 2004/05 are projected to average $2.55 to $2.95 per bushel, compared with a forecast of $2.45 to $2.55 per bushel for 2003/04. Except for grain sorghum and barley, 2003/04 feed grain forecasts are unchanged from last month. Grain sorghum exports are lowered 10 million bushels from last month but feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels. The projected price range for 2003/04 grain sorghum is lowered 5 cents on each end to $2.40 to $2.50 per bushel. Barley imports are raised 5 million bushels. The global outlook for 2004/05 coarse grains has changed slightly from last month as increased production results in larger ending stocks, especially for corn. A 1.6-million-ton increase in Ukraine's corn crop accounts for most of the change in foreign coarse grain production. Global coarse grain trade is little changed from last month. However, compared to 2003/04, declining coarse grain feed use in the former Soviet Union reflects increased supplies of wheat for feeding. For 2003/04, global coarse grain production, trade, and stocks are up from last month. Global coarse grain production is up just over 1 million tons, imports are increased fractionally, and ending stocks are up nearly 2 million tons. China's 2003/04 corn crop is up nearly 2 million tons. Global 2003/04 corn ending stocks are over 2 million tons larger this month but are still 33 million tons below the 2002/03 level. RICE: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2004/05 supply and use balance while only minor changes are made on the use side. The export projection is unchanged from last month at 111 million cwt; however combined medium- and short-grain exports are raised 1 million cwt to 25 million cwt, while long-grain exports are reduced 1 million cwt to 86 million cwt. Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 24.8 million cwt, unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price range for 2004/05 is unchanged at $8.25 to $8.75 per cwt compared to a revised $7.40 to $7.50 per cwt for 2003/04. Projected global 2004/05 production and ending stocks are reduced from a month ago, while imports, exports, and consumption are slightly reduced. World production is projected at 399.8 million tons, down nearly 2 million tons from a month ago, but up 11.5 million tons from the revised 2003/04 level. The decline in global production is due to smaller crops projected for Australia and China. China's 2004/05 rice crop is projected at 120.75 million tons, 1.75 million tons below last month, but 8.3 million tons above the revised 2003/04 estimate. China's 2003/04 rice production estimate is based on official data from the Government of China. Global ending stocks in 2004/05 are projected at 64.9 million tons, 4.5 million tons below last month, 17.5 million tons below the revised 2003/04 estimate, and the lowest stocks since 1982/83. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 90.2 million tons, unchanged from last month. Soybean production is projected at a record 2,965 million bushels, or 80.7 million tons. A projected increase in 2003/04 soybean ending stocks for South America is expected to provide increased export competition for U.S. soybeans and soybean meal in 2004/05. As a result, 2004/05 U.S. soybean exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 1,065 million bushels. Soybean crush is also reduced based on lower soybean meal export prospects. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2004/05 is projected at $5.70 to $6.70 per bushel, down 15 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $185 to $215 per short ton, down $10 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 24.5 to 28.5 cents per pound, down slightly from last month. Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at a record 378.3 million tons, up 42.6 million tons (13 percent) from 2003/04. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 288.1 million tons, up 28 million tons from 2003/04. Global soybean production is projected to increase 35.8 million tons to a record 225 million tons as yields in both the United States and South America recover from relatively low levels in 2003/04. Improved yields and prospective increases in harvested area, especially in Brazil, will push South American soybean production to a record 113 million tons, accounting for just over half of 2004/05 global production. The Brazilian soybean crop is projected at a record 66 million tons, up 25 percent from the drought-reduced 2003/04 crop. Global production of high-oil-content seed is up only slightly as increased rapeseed production is mostly offset by reduced sunflowerseed production. Rapeseed production is projected higher for China, the EU, and Canada, but lower for India. Sunflowerseed production is lower for Ukraine and Russia as producers reduce plantings from 2003/04. Sunflowerseed area was unusually high in 2003/04 as producers replanted wheat area lost to winterkill. Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 6 percent in 2004/05, led by gains for both soybean and cottonseed meal. Protein meal consumption in China is projected to increase 8 percent, with soybean meal projected to rise 6 percent. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 4 percent for 2004/05, also led by relatively strong gains for China. Despite a 6-percent gain in oilseed crush, 2004/05 global oilseed stocks are projected to rise 37 percent to a record 50.8 million tons. Changes for 2003/04 include reduced soybean production and trade. Brazil soybean production is reduced 0.9 million tons to 52.6 million tons. Forecast soybean imports for China are reduced 1.25 million tons to 19 million tons as strong soybean prices reduce crush. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply and ending stocks for fiscal-year 2004/05 are reduced 23,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower carryin stocks. For 2003/04, sugar production is lowered 23,000 tons, based on processors' production reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminant products due to the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 are unchanged from last month. Red meat production forecasts for 2004 are reduced slightly. This is primarily the result of lower forecast beef and pork output in the second quarter due to a slower-than-expected pace of slaughter and lighter carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production forecasts through the year are reduced. Despite higher prices, broiler hatchery and slaughter data point towards a relatively slow pace of expansion while turkey production data indicate a steeper rate of decline through 2004. Egg production forecasts for 2004 are little changed. Meat exports for 2004 and 2005 are reduced as a higher forecast for pork exports is more than offset by reduced poultry shipments. Pork shipments, primarily to Asia, are expected to remain strong as imports of competing meats are constrained. Poultry exports are lowered as weakness in sales to several major markets is expected to continue. Assuming continued strength in meat demand, livestock and poultry price forecasts for both 2004 and 2005 are increased. The 2004 Choice steer price forecast is raised to $84 to $88 per cwt and the hog price is raised to $47 to $49 per cwt. Broiler and turkey prices in 2004 are also increased as production forecasts have been lowered and demand remains strong. Prices for cattle, hogs, and broilers for 2005 are raised slightly. Milk production forecasts for 2003/04 and 2004/05 are little changed. A slower decline in cow numbers is more than offset by slower-than-expected growth in output per cow, resulting in a fractional reduction in the 2003/04 milk production forecast. Forecast milk production 2004/05 is raised due to the slower rate of decline in cow numbers. Relatively strong prices are expected to limit CCC net removals. Milk prices are forecast to moderate from their recent highs as product prices have been declining. Consequently, price forecasts for 2003/04 are reduced. For 2003/04, Class III prices are forecast at $15.25 to $15.45 per cwt and the Class IV price at $12.20 to $12.50 per cwt. The all milk price is forecast is at $16.00 to $16.20 per cwt. For 2004/05, the all milk price is raised slightly. COTTON: The U.S. projections for 2004/05 are unchanged from last month. The world projections for 2004/05 reflect higher production and consumption relative to last month and slightly lower ending stocks. World production is projected at a record 102.9 million bales, marginally above last month. Production is projected 10 percent above the 2003/04 season, due mainly to increases for China, Australia, Pakistan, and Brazil, which are partially offset by decreases for India and the United States. World consumption is projected at 99.9 million bales, 1 percent above last month and 1.3 percent above 2003/04. Continued strong growth in China's textile activity is driving the year-to-year increase in world consumption, as consumption in the United States and in many foreign countries outside China is projected to decline. World trade is raised slightly from last month. Global stocks are projected to rise 10 percent from the 2003/04 level. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: KEITH J. COLLINS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on July 12, 2004. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2004: July 12, Aug. 12, Sep. 10, Oct. 12, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-411-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 1,816.85 2,350.46 241.28 1,910.86 439.60 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,837.16 2,276.75 233.64 1,941.83 334.93 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 1,921.33 2,257.48 230.40 1,960.82 296.65 June : 1,925.09 2,260.02 232.30 1,963.18 296.84 Wheat : 2002/03 : 566.86 768.74 108.49 601.60 167.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 550.02 717.16 107.26 588.41 128.74 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 588.67 717.41 102.13 594.15 123.26 June : 593.43 722.18 103.63 595.75 126.43 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 871.82 1,066.38 104.14 900.96 165.41 2003/04 (Est.) : 898.84 1,064.25 101.41 940.49 123.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 930.89 1,052.78 102.76 948.81 103.97 June : 931.84 1,055.60 103.36 950.10 105.49 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 378.16 515.35 28.65 408.30 107.04 2003/04 (Est.) : 388.30 495.34 24.96 412.92 82.42 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 401.77 487.28 25.51 417.86 69.42 June : 399.82 482.25 25.31 417.33 64.92 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 293.96 366.50 72.98 248.38 45.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 345.66 395.60 92.33 262.97 40.31 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 347.56 392.06 89.71 264.78 37.56 June : 347.02 392.03 89.71 264.78 37.54 Wheat : 2002/03 : 43.71 66.96 23.25 30.34 13.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 63.59 79.01 31.43 32.85 14.72 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 56.62 72.70 26.54 32.58 13.59 June : 56.08 72.58 26.54 32.58 13.46 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 243.72 291.32 45.87 214.51 30.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 275.70 308.95 57.63 226.44 24.89 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 284.03 311.29 59.65 228.45 23.19 June : 284.03 311.39 59.65 228.45 23.29 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.54 0.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 6.37 7.64 3.26 3.68 0.70 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 6.91 8.07 3.52 3.75 0.79 June : 6.91 8.07 3.52 3.75 0.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-411-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 1,522.89 1,983.96 168.30 1,662.48 394.45 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,491.50 1,881.15 141.31 1,678.86 294.62 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 1,573.77 1,865.42 140.69 1,696.04 259.09 June : 1,578.07 1,867.99 142.59 1,698.40 259.30 Wheat : 2002/03 : 523.16 701.78 85.24 571.26 153.77 2003/04 (Est.) : 486.43 638.15 75.83 555.56 114.02 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 532.05 644.71 75.59 561.57 109.67 June : 537.35 649.60 77.10 563.17 112.96 Coarse grains 5/ : 2002/03 : 628.10 775.06 58.27 686.45 134.47 2003/04 (Est.) : 623.14 755.30 43.79 714.05 98.87 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 646.85 741.49 43.11 720.36 80.79 June : 647.80 744.21 43.71 721.65 82.21 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 371.63 507.12 24.79 404.77 106.21 2003/04 (Est.) : 381.93 487.70 21.70 409.24 81.72 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 394.87 479.22 21.99 414.11 68.63 June : 392.92 474.18 21.79 413.57 64.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2002/03 : 88.28 135.67 30.62 98.66 36.59 2003/04 (Est.) : 93.47 130.06 32.99 98.61 32.03 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 102.50 135.16 30.50 99.00 36.46 June : 102.88 134.91 31.28 99.86 35.35 : United States 2002/03 : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 18.26 23.69 13.80 6.30 3.60 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 17.60 21.24 11.50 5.80 3.90 June : 17.60 21.24 11.50 5.80 3.90 : Foreign 3/ 2002/03 : 71.07 110.95 18.72 91.39 31.21 2003/04 (Est.) : 75.21 106.37 19.19 92.31 28.43 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 84.90 113.92 19.00 93.20 32.56 June : 85.28 113.67 19.78 94.06 31.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-411-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 329.73 366.80 71.32 267.48 44.04 2003/04 (Est.) : 335.74 379.77 70.48 282.92 37.02 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 378.00 413.58 June : 378.32 415.34 77.65 301.08 50.84 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 185.29 191.08 53.23 187.70 4.95 2003/04 (Est.) : 194.88 199.83 59.08 194.98 4.71 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : June : 207.62 212.33 61.10 206.36 5.41 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 94.80 103.05 35.85 96.03 6.58 2003/04 (Est.) : 101.24 107.81 37.57 100.50 6.37 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : June : 105.46 111.83 39.07 104.68 6.54 : : United States Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 83.94 91.36 29.45 47.52 5.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 75.62 82.18 25.45 43.98 4.05 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 90.20 94.98 30.24 49.39 6.19 June : 90.20 94.98 29.86 48.95 7.01 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 36.62 38.09 5.65 32.20 0.24 2003/04 (Est.) : 33.83 35.85 4.01 31.64 0.20 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 38.21 40.01 5.54 34.20 0.27 June : 37.80 39.30 5.22 33.81 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 9.20 12.05 1.24 9.90 0.90 2003/04 (Est.) : 8.43 11.10 0.65 9.80 0.65 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 9.55 11.94 0.82 10.30 0.83 June : 9.43 11.84 0.78 10.25 0.81 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 245.79 275.45 41.87 219.96 38.20 2003/04 (Est.) : 260.12 297.60 45.02 238.94 32.97 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 287.80 318.60 June : 288.12 320.36 47.79 252.14 43.83 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 148.67 152.99 47.58 155.50 4.71 2003/04 (Est.) : 161.05 163.98 55.07 163.34 4.51 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : June : 169.82 173.03 55.88 172.55 5.14 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 85.60 91.01 34.61 86.12 5.68 2003/04 (Est.) : 92.81 96.71 36.92 90.70 5.72 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : June : 96.04 99.99 38.29 94.43 5.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-411-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.3 61.7 59.5 * 59.5 * Harvested : 45.8 52.8 50.4 * 50.4 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.0 44.2 41.3 * 40.9 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 777 491 526 541 Production : 1,606 2,337 2,080 2,061 Imports : 77 75 65 65 Supply, total : 2,460 2,903 2,671 2,667 Food : 918 900 915 915 Seed : 84 82 82 82 Feed and residual : 113 225 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,115 1,207 1,197 1,197 Exports : 854 1,155 975 975 Use, total : 1,969 2,362 2,172 2,172 Ending stocks : 491 541 499 495 CCC inventory : 66 61 Free stocks : 425 480 Outstanding loans : 51 37 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.56 3.40 3.25- 3.85 3.25- 3.85 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,063 500 379 298 97 2,337 Supply, total 3/ : 1,253 657 462 383 148 2,903 Domestic use : 518 241 249 116 82 1,207 Exports : 512 265 145 190 43 1,155 Use, total : 1,030 506 394 306 126 2,362 Ending stocks Jun : 223 151 69 76 22 541 May : 214 152 68 70 22 526 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For May and June, planted acres reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using 10-year average harvested-to-planted ratios and projected yield derived from 1985-2003 trend yield. For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June 11 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2003/04 will first be published * * in the July 11 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-411-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.5 98.1 96.6 * 96.6 * Harvested : 82.6 85.8 85.3 * 85.3 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.95 3.21 3.33 3.33 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.0 30.9 24.8 24.9 Production : 243.6 275.5 283.8 283.8 Imports : 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 Supply, total : 291.0 308.6 310.9 311.0 Feed and residual : 149.3 155.8 154.3 154.3 Food, seed & industrial : 64.9 70.3 73.8 73.8 Domestic, total : 214.2 226.1 228.1 228.1 Exports : 45.9 57.6 59.6 59.6 Use, total : 260.1 283.8 287.8 287.8 Ending stocks, total : 30.9 24.9 23.2 23.3 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 30.8 24.9 Outstanding loans : 7.1 5.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.9 78.7 79.0 * 79.0 * Harvested : 69.3 71.1 71.9 * 71.9 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 129.3 142.2 145.0 * 145.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,596 1,087 806 806 Production : 8,967 10,114 10,425 10,425 Imports : 14 10 15 15 Supply, total : 10,578 11,211 11,246 11,246 Feed and residual : 5,558 5,800 5,725 5,725 Food, seed & industrial : 2,340 2,555 2,680 2,680 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 996 1,195 1,300 1,300 Domestic, total : 7,898 8,355 8,405 8,405 Exports : 1,592 2,050 2,100 2,100 Use, total : 9,491 10,405 10,505 10,505 Ending stocks, total : 1,087 806 741 741 CCC inventory : 5 1 Free stocks : 1,082 805 Outstanding loans : 277 225 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.32 2.45- 2.55 2.55- 2.95 2.55- 2.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of corn use including fuel alcohol see the ERS Feed Outlook table 5, or ERS feed grain data at http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/. Under "Custom" select data type: supply and use. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For May and June, planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 2004, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1998-2003 omitting 2002. Projected yield derived from a linear trend fit over 1960-2003 (1988 omitted), adjusted for planting progress. WASDE-411-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.4 8.6 * 8.6 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.1 7.8 7.3 * 7.3 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 50.6 52.7 62.6 * 62.6 * Beginning stocks : 61 43 44 44 Production : 361 411 455 455 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 422 454 499 499 Feed and residual : 169 185 190 190 Food, seed & industrial : 24 25 35 35 Total domestic : 193 210 225 225 Exports : 186 200 225 225 Use, total : 379 410 450 450 Ending stocks, total : 43 44 49 49 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.32 2.40- 2.50 2.50- 2.90 2.50- 2.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.3 4.7 * 4.7 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.7 4.1 * 4.1 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.0 58.9 62.5 * 62.5 * Beginning stocks : 92 69 103 108 Production : 227 276 255 255 Imports : 18 20 20 20 Supply, total : 337 365 378 383 Feed and residual : 65 65 80 80 Food, seed & industrial : 173 172 172 172 Total domestic : 238 237 252 252 Exports : 30 20 25 25 Use, total : 268 257 277 277 Ending stocks, total : 69 108 101 106 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.72 2.85 2.60- 3.00 2.60- 3.00 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 4.6 4.3 * 4.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.1 2.2 2.1 * 2.1 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.4 65.0 62.9 * 62.9 * Beginning stocks : 63 50 64 64 Production : 116 145 130 130 Imports : 95 90 90 90 Supply, total : 274 284 284 284 Feed and residual : 150 145 145 145 Food, seed & industrial : 72 73 74 74 Total domestic : 222 218 219 219 Exports : 3 3 3 3 Use, total : 224 220 222 222 Ending stocks, total : 50 64 62 62 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.81 1.48 1.45- 1.75 1.45- 1.75 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2004, Prospective Plantings. Harvested Area-- For Sorghum harvested acres is the five year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 1998-2003 (excluding 2002). For barley harvested acres is the three year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 2000-2003 (excluding 2002). For oats harvested acres reported in March 31, 2004 Prospective Plantings. Yield-- For sorghum 10 year (1994-2003) average yield. For barley and oats projected yield derived from 1960-2003 trend yield. WASDE-411-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.26 * 3.26 * Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.24 * 3.24 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,578 6,645 6,721 * 6,721 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 21.9 21.9 Production : 211.0 199.2 217.5 217.5 Imports : 14.8 14.0 14.5 14.5 Supply, total : 264.8 239.9 253.9 253.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 116.0 118.1 118.1 Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 102.0 111.0 111.0 Rough : 43.0 37.0 38.0 38.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.5 65.0 73.0 73.0 Use, total : 238.0 218.0 229.1 229.1 Ending stocks : 26.8 21.9 24.8 24.8 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.5 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 7.40- 7.50 8.25- 8.75 8.25- 8.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 12.2 12.2 Production : 157.2 149.0 162.5 162.5 Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 173.9 184.4 184.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.2 81.8 84.0 84.0 Exports 8/ : 99.2 80.0 87.0 86.0 Use, total : 178.4 161.8 171.0 170.0 Ending stocks : 15.7 12.2 13.4 14.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,299 Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 7.9 7.9 Production : 53.7 50.1 55.0 55.0 Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 64.2 67.7 67.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 34.2 34.1 34.1 Exports 8/ : 25.3 22.0 24.0 25.0 Use, total : 59.6 56.2 58.1 59.1 Ending stocks : 9.3 7.9 9.6 8.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2004 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres are estimated using average harvested-to-planted ratios by class of rice, 1999-2003. Yield is projected using the average annual percentage increase in yield, 2001-2003. WASDE-411-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.0 73.4 75.4 * 75.4 * Harvested : 72.5 72.3 74.1 * 74.1 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.0 33.4 40.0 * 40.0 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 208 178 115 115 Production : 2,756 2,418 2,965 2,965 Imports : 5 8 5 5 Supply, total : 2,969 2,604 3,085 3,085 Crushings : 1,615 1,475 1,665 1,650 Exports : 1,045 900 1,080 1,065 Seed : 89 92 91 91 Residual : 41 22 59 59 Use, total : 2,791 2,489 2,895 2,865 Ending stocks : 178 115 190 220 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.53 7.65 5.85- 6.85 5.70 - 6.70 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,021 1,021 Production : 18,438 16,495 _3/ 18,730 18,565 Imports : 46 235 105 105 Supply, total : 20,843 18,221 19,856 19,691 Domestic : 17,091 16,350 17,400 17,300 Exports : 2,261 850 1,200 1,150 Use, total : 19,352 17,200 18,600 18,450 Ending stocks : 1,491 1,021 1,256 1,241 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.04 31.50 25.00- 24.50- : 29.00 28.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 240 220 175 175 Production : 38,213 35,030 _3/ 39,610 39,260 Imports : 166 475 165 165 Supply, total : 38,619 35,725 39,950 39,600 Domestic : 32,386 31,300 33,800 33,800 Exports : 6,013 4,250 5,900 5,550 Use, total : 38,399 35,550 39,700 39,350 Ending stocks : 220 175 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 181.57 270.00 195.00- 185.00- : 225.00 215.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,470 million bushels. *Planted acres reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted-to-harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional trend. WASDE-411-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :===================== : : Estimate : May June ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,528 1,661 2,223 2,200 Production 2/ : 8,379 8,940 8,590 8,590 Beet sugar : 4,415 4,863 4,520 4,520 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,964 4,077 4,070 4,070 Imports : 1,730 1,659 1,591 1,591 TRQ 4/ : 1,210 1,224 1,206 1,206 Other program 5/ : 488 400 350 350 Other 6/ : 32 35 35 35 Supply, total : 11,637 12,260 12,404 12,381 : Exports : 142 200 150 150 Deliveries : 9,674 9,860 9,905 9,905 Food : 9,466 9,670 9,715 9,715 Other 7/ : 208 190 190 190 Miscellaneous 8/ : 160 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,976 10,060 10,055 10,055 Ending stocks : 1,661 2,200 2,349 2,326 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.6 21.9 23.4 23.1 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2004/05 are based on March Prospective Plantings and trend yields. 3/ Production by state for 2003/04 (projected 2004/05): FL 2,151 (2,040); HI 280 (270); LA 1,458 (1,575); TX 188 (185); PR 0 (0). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2004/05, includes only the US commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical discrepancies. WASDE-411-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.96 13.48 14.40 * 14.40 * Harvested : 12.42 12.00 12.70 * 12.70 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 665 730 665 * 665 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 7.45 5.38 3.60 3.60 Production : 17.21 18.26 17.60 17.60 Imports : 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 24.72 23.69 21.24 21.24 Domestic use : 7.27 6.30 5.80 5.80 Exports : 11.90 13.80 11.50 11.50 Use, total : 19.17 20.10 17.30 17.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.17 -0.01 0.04 0.04 Ending stocks : 5.38 3.60 3.90 3.90 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 44.5 62.7 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2003/04 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-April. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on 1999-2003 U.S. average abandonment. Projected yield per harvested acre based on 1999-2003 U.S. average yield per harvested acre. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2003/04 is 17.7 percent. WASDE-411-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 201.87 566.86 107.59 112.44 601.60 108.49 167.14 United States : 21.15 43.71 2.11 3.08 30.34 23.25 13.37 Total foreign : 180.72 523.16 105.49 109.36 571.26 85.24 153.77 Major exporters 4/ : 30.84 163.04 14.60 66.87 135.99 45.25 27.23 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.06 0.29 3.38 6.10 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.06 8.18 9.40 5.73 EU-25 5/ : 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 Major importers 6/ : 96.57 143.51 54.42 11.38 210.57 5.22 78.71 Brazil : 0.90 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.44 0.50 6.65 N. Africa 8/ : 5.61 11.70 18.77 0.30 29.67 0.38 6.04 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.44 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.00 9.30 1.63 9.06 0.37 1.53 Selected other : India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 : 16.64 96.96 4.10 23.91 73.66 25.82 18.23 Russia : 6.48 50.55 1.05 16.00 39.32 12.62 6.13 Kazakhstan : 4.70 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 6.24 5.42 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.14 550.02 101.73 99.93 588.41 107.26 128.74 United States : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 32.85 31.43 14.72 Total foreign : 153.77 486.43 99.69 93.81 555.56 75.83 114.02 Major exporters 4/ : 27.23 168.54 7.29 60.65 128.90 50.50 23.66 Argentina : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.00 1.76 Australia : 3.14 24.92 0.08 3.00 5.70 17.50 4.94 Canada : 5.73 23.50 0.20 3.60 7.78 15.50 6.15 EU-25 5/ : 16.83 106.62 7.00 53.97 110.15 9.50 10.81 Major importers 6/ : 78.71 147.66 50.25 9.97 210.23 6.64 59.75 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.60 0.30 10.00 1.30 0.81 China : 60.38 86.49 3.00 6.00 104.50 2.70 42.67 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.65 16.83 7.90 1.15 25.66 1.00 4.72 N. Africa 8/ : 6.04 16.04 15.20 0.30 30.28 0.26 6.74 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.10 0.40 18.90 0.20 1.63 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.53 0.00 9.15 1.27 8.96 0.33 1.39 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.02 0.60 68.42 5.50 6.90 FSU-12 : 18.23 61.41 7.24 17.28 65.99 9.83 11.06 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 2.23 Kazakhstan : 5.42 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.20 4.64 Ukraine : 3.26 3.60 3.50 0.73 10.03 0.02 0.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-411-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 128.75 588.67 99.98 104.30 594.15 102.13 123.26 June : 128.74 593.43 101.08 104.50 595.75 103.63 126.43 United States : May : 14.31 56.62 1.77 5.44 32.58 26.54 13.59 June : 14.72 56.08 1.77 5.44 32.58 26.54 13.46 Total foreign : May : 114.43 532.05 98.22 98.86 561.57 75.59 109.67 June : 114.02 537.35 99.32 99.06 563.17 77.10 112.96 Major exporters 4/ : May : 23.74 188.00 5.29 64.78 133.38 55.00 28.64 June : 23.66 189.00 5.29 64.78 133.38 56.00 28.56 Argentina May : 1.76 14.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 1.79 Jun : 1.76 14.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 1.79 Australia May : 5.02 24.00 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 6.49 Jun : 4.94 24.00 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 6.41 Canada May : 6.15 23.50 0.20 3.80 8.00 15.50 6.35 Jun : 6.15 23.50 0.20 3.80 8.00 15.50 6.35 EU-25 5/ May : 10.81 126.50 5.00 58.00 114.30 14.00 14.01 Jun : 10.81 127.50 5.00 58.00 114.30 15.00 14.01 Major importers 6/ : May : 60.26 143.83 57.10 8.31 209.48 3.19 48.52 June : 59.75 146.14 58.20 8.51 209.98 3.19 50.91 Brazil May : 0.81 4.70 5.50 0.40 10.20 0.10 0.71 Jun : 0.81 5.00 5.50 0.40 10.20 0.10 1.01 China May : 42.38 84.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 31.38 Jun : 42.67 85.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 32.67 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 5.62 16.74 9.45 1.30 26.14 0.70 4.97 Jun : 4.72 17.74 10.25 1.50 26.54 0.70 5.47 N. Africa 8/ May : 6.64 16.18 14.90 0.30 30.63 0.26 6.83 Jun : 6.74 16.18 14.90 0.30 30.73 0.26 6.83 Pakistan May : 1.63 19.00 0.20 0.40 19.30 0.05 1.48 Jun : 1.63 19.00 0.50 0.40 19.30 0.05 1.78 SE Asia 9/ May : 1.39 0.00 9.55 1.38 9.27 0.33 1.34 Jun : 1.39 0.00 9.55 1.38 9.27 0.33 1.34 Selected other : India May : 6.72 72.00 0.02 0.50 69.22 2.00 7.52 Jun : 6.90 72.00 0.02 0.50 69.92 1.50 7.50 FSU-12 May : 11.06 79.29 3.99 19.41 69.88 11.16 13.30 Jun : 11.06 81.29 3.99 19.41 69.88 12.16 14.30 Russia May : 2.23 40.00 1.00 13.00 36.50 3.50 3.23 Jun : 2.23 42.00 1.00 13.00 36.50 4.50 4.23 Kazakhstan May : 4.64 11.50 0.02 1.80 6.50 5.50 4.15 Jun : 4.64 11.50 0.02 1.80 6.50 5.50 4.15 Ukraine May : 0.31 15.00 0.50 2.50 12.00 2.00 1.81 Jun : 0.31 15.00 0.50 2.50 12.00 2.00 1.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-411-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 194.56 871.82 102.90 596.10 900.96 104.14 165.41 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.56 149.40 214.51 45.87 30.94 Total foreign : 149.52 628.10 100.34 446.70 686.45 58.27 134.47 Major exporters 4/ : 8.44 56.01 4.87 31.88 44.66 16.89 7.77 Argentina : 0.96 19.45 0.00 5.12 7.33 11.94 1.14 Australia : 1.99 6.55 0.01 4.11 5.45 2.12 0.99 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 35.78 203.43 78.64 201.58 270.44 10.14 37.26 EU-25 6/ : 21.07 137.45 6.35 102.03 135.51 8.63 20.72 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.33 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.41 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.78 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.91 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.55 23.68 25.18 39.52 45.93 0.96 6.52 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.15 4.15 13.44 18.75 0.55 1.06 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.94 6.69 9.24 0.00 1.25 Selected other : China : 85.58 130.62 1.83 98.43 136.29 15.34 66.39 Other Europe : 2.25 22.24 1.02 17.35 21.10 1.40 3.01 FSU-12 : 11.39 60.74 0.90 34.95 52.74 8.09 12.20 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.30 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.11 0.43 9.30 13.26 3.99 2.90 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 165.41 898.84 100.08 616.09 940.49 101.41 123.76 United States : 30.94 275.70 2.32 155.86 226.44 57.63 24.89 Total foreign : 134.47 623.14 97.77 460.23 714.05 43.79 98.87 Major exporters 4/ : 7.77 63.14 2.93 33.71 46.87 18.79 8.19 Argentina : 1.14 16.10 0.02 4.78 7.04 9.07 1.15 Australia : 0.99 12.39 0.00 5.12 6.45 5.42 1.52 Canada : 3.14 26.31 2.07 19.48 24.08 3.28 4.16 Major importers 5/ : 37.26 192.07 77.52 203.95 272.97 4.62 29.26 EU-25 6/ : 20.72 121.35 7.31 100.95 134.22 3.87 11.29 Japan : 2.41 0.20 20.04 15.54 20.37 0.00 2.28 Mexico : 3.91 28.10 9.30 20.11 36.15 0.02 5.14 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.52 26.46 22.26 41.81 48.47 0.30 6.46 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.60 3.93 13.40 18.76 0.43 1.40 South Korea : 1.25 0.30 9.73 7.56 10.13 0.00 1.15 Selected other : China : 66.39 125.13 1.61 100.50 139.30 8.10 45.72 Other Europe : 3.01 17.95 1.32 16.96 20.70 0.22 1.36 FSU-12 : 12.20 55.32 1.16 39.28 56.95 5.95 5.79 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.70 21.48 33.20 3.00 2.20 Ukraine : 2.90 15.60 0.25 10.70 14.30 2.31 2.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-411-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 121.90 930.89 98.41 618.97 948.81 102.76 103.97 June : 123.76 931.84 98.83 620.03 950.10 103.36 105.49 United States : May : 24.79 284.03 2.47 154.43 228.45 59.65 23.19 June : 24.89 284.03 2.47 154.43 228.45 59.65 23.29 Total foreign : May : 97.11 646.85 95.94 464.53 720.36 43.11 80.79 June : 98.87 647.80 96.36 465.60 721.65 43.71 82.21 Major exporters 4/ : May : 8.37 67.06 2.96 34.49 47.93 20.94 9.52 June : 8.19 66.96 2.96 34.36 47.91 21.06 9.14 Argentina May : 1.15 19.35 0.01 4.98 7.29 11.56 1.66 Jun : 1.15 19.35 0.01 4.98 7.29 11.56 1.66 Australia May : 1.88 11.66 0.00 5.39 6.61 4.95 1.97 Jun : 1.52 11.56 0.00 5.26 6.59 5.07 1.41 Canada May : 4.11 26.32 2.25 19.78 24.73 3.40 4.55 Jun : 4.16 26.32 2.25 19.78 24.73 3.40 4.60 Major importers 5/ : May : 28.94 210.03 75.96 206.60 276.99 5.07 32.88 June : 29.26 210.23 76.01 206.97 277.26 5.09 33.15 EU-25 6/ May : 11.34 139.95 3.06 101.49 135.40 4.51 14.44 Jun : 11.29 139.95 3.06 101.49 135.40 4.51 14.39 Japan May : 2.28 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Jun : 2.28 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Mexico May : 4.79 27.45 10.94 22.17 38.31 0.01 4.85 Jun : 5.14 27.45 10.94 22.17 38.31 0.01 5.21 N Afr/M.East 7/May : 6.50 26.07 23.64 41.94 49.00 0.15 7.06 Jun : 6.46 26.27 23.74 42.39 49.35 0.15 6.98 S.-east Asia 8/May : 1.35 15.92 3.91 13.87 19.37 0.40 1.41 Jun : 1.40 15.92 3.84 13.77 19.26 0.43 1.47 South Korea May : 1.15 0.33 9.51 7.14 9.79 0.00 1.20 Jun : 1.15 0.33 9.51 7.14 9.79 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China May : 43.92 124.30 2.01 102.80 142.85 4.08 23.30 Jun : 45.72 124.30 2.01 102.80 142.85 4.08 25.10 Other Europe May : 1.36 22.68 0.96 17.78 21.65 1.10 2.25 Jun : 1.36 22.68 0.96 17.78 21.65 1.10 2.25 FSU-12 May : 5.84 55.95 1.10 34.81 51.79 5.69 5.41 Jun : 5.79 57.05 1.10 35.51 52.49 6.09 5.36 Russia May : 2.20 30.10 0.80 18.30 29.10 2.00 2.00 Jun : 2.20 30.10 0.80 18.30 29.10 2.00 2.00 Ukraine May : 2.19 16.80 0.07 9.45 13.30 3.16 2.60 Jun : 2.14 17.90 0.07 10.15 14.00 3.56 2.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-411-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 147.97 600.99 76.63 434.83 626.70 78.26 122.25 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.18 200.63 40.45 27.60 Total foreign : 107.42 373.22 76.26 293.65 426.07 37.81 94.65 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.44 6.50 12.52 12.30 3.07 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.00 2.50 4.00 11.20 0.63 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.44 4.00 8.52 1.10 2.44 Major importers 5/ : 11.25 89.33 49.04 93.60 133.68 2.52 13.42 Egypt : 0.25 6.00 4.86 9.10 10.90 0.00 0.21 EU-25 6/ : 2.66 49.08 4.33 38.38 49.24 2.00 4.83 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.87 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.28 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.25 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.20 18.50 0.51 1.04 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.78 0.00 1.25 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 44.50 0.78 34.00 37.50 4.63 3.87 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 84.79 121.30 0.03 96.00 125.90 15.24 64.97 Other Europe : 1.76 17.68 0.54 14.37 16.84 0.66 2.49 FSU-12 : 1.50 8.54 0.19 6.39 7.86 0.85 1.51 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.25 615.92 77.36 448.03 648.96 77.30 89.22 United States : 27.60 256.90 0.25 147.33 212.23 52.07 20.46 Total foreign : 94.65 359.02 77.11 300.70 436.73 25.23 68.76 Major exporters 4/ : 3.07 20.30 0.71 6.70 12.80 9.50 1.78 Argentina : 0.63 12.50 0.01 2.60 4.10 8.50 0.54 South Africa : 2.44 7.80 0.70 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.24 Major importers 5/ : 13.42 81.08 50.80 92.29 132.46 0.82 12.03 Egypt : 0.21 6.15 4.50 8.90 10.70 0.00 0.16 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.00 5.00 35.00 45.80 0.40 2.62 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.80 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 3.25 20.50 6.30 11.00 26.20 0.02 3.83 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.32 3.90 13.14 18.49 0.40 1.37 South Korea : 1.25 0.07 9.50 7.40 9.67 0.00 1.15 Selected other : Brazil : 3.87 41.50 0.55 35.00 38.80 4.00 3.12 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.00 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.91 China : 64.97 115.83 0.10 98.00 128.60 8.00 44.30 Other Europe : 2.49 14.27 0.78 13.98 16.46 0.20 0.88 FSU-12 : 1.51 11.54 0.50 9.67 11.16 1.03 1.36 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.40 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-411-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 86.96 642.58 75.00 454.30 662.74 77.74 66.80 June : 89.22 643.83 75.22 455.29 664.19 78.46 68.86 United States : May : 20.46 264.81 0.38 145.42 213.50 53.34 18.81 June : 20.46 264.81 0.38 145.42 213.50 53.34 18.81 Total foreign : May : 66.49 377.77 74.61 308.88 449.24 24.40 47.98 June : 68.76 379.02 74.84 309.87 450.69 25.12 50.04 Major exporters 4/ : May : 1.66 24.80 0.51 6.80 12.90 12.00 2.07 June : 1.78 24.80 0.51 6.80 12.90 12.00 2.19 Argentina May : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.20 11.00 0.85 Jun : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.20 11.00 0.85 South Africa May : 1.12 9.30 0.50 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.22 Jun : 1.24 9.30 0.50 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.34 Major importers 5/ : May : 11.78 93.26 48.21 97.60 138.75 0.91 13.58 June : 12.03 93.26 48.11 97.50 138.66 0.91 13.84 Egypt May : 0.16 6.20 4.70 9.00 10.90 0.00 0.16 Jun : 0.16 6.20 4.70 9.00 10.90 0.00 0.16 EU-25 6/ May : 2.62 51.00 2.50 40.10 51.50 0.50 4.12 Jun : 2.62 51.00 2.50 40.10 51.50 0.50 4.12 Japan May : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Jun : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Mexico May : 3.60 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 3.69 Jun : 3.83 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 3.92 S.-east Asia 7/May : 1.34 15.64 3.91 13.60 19.09 0.40 1.41 Jun : 1.37 15.64 3.81 13.50 18.99 0.40 1.43 South Korea May : 1.15 0.07 9.30 7.00 9.32 0.00 1.20 Jun : 1.15 0.07 9.30 7.00 9.32 0.00 1.20 Selected other : Brazil May : 3.12 43.50 0.40 36.20 40.00 4.50 2.52 Jun : 3.12 43.50 0.40 36.20 40.00 4.50 2.52 Canada May : 0.91 9.50 2.20 8.70 11.40 0.30 0.91 Jun : 0.91 9.50 2.20 8.70 11.40 0.30 0.91 China May : 42.47 115.00 0.20 100.00 131.60 4.00 22.07 Jun : 44.30 115.00 0.20 100.00 131.60 4.00 23.90 Other Europe May : 0.89 17.92 0.53 14.58 17.06 0.60 1.68 Jun : 0.89 17.92 0.53 14.58 17.06 0.60 1.68 FSU-12 May : 1.36 9.57 0.61 8.26 9.65 0.83 1.07 Jun : 1.36 11.17 0.61 9.16 10.55 1.53 1.07 Russia May : 0.11 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 Jun : 0.11 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-411-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 3/ : 137.18 378.16 26.19 408.30 28.65 107.04 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.54 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 135.97 371.63 25.71 404.77 24.79 106.21 Major exporters 4/ : 30.58 115.90 0.04 111.11 18.78 16.64 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.65 1.99 0.05 Thailand : 2.40 17.20 0.00 9.92 7.55 2.13 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.07 55.12 12.11 67.29 0.33 11.69 Brazil : 0.54 7.02 1.25 8.10 0.02 0.69 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.65 1.20 2.60 0.25 0.88 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 0.68 2.20 1.90 4.00 0.00 0.78 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.50 2.00 2.51 5.05 0.06 0.89 Selected other : Burma : 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 1.59 8.09 0.63 8.79 0.20 1.32 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.57 4.93 0.13 5.03 0.57 1.03 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 3/ : 107.04 388.30 24.30 412.92 24.96 82.42 United States : 0.83 6.37 0.45 3.68 3.26 0.70 Total foreign : 106.21 381.93 23.85 409.24 21.70 81.72 Major exporters 4/ : 16.64 131.94 0.04 114.85 17.15 16.61 India : 11.00 88.00 0.00 83.75 2.75 12.50 Pakistan : 0.05 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.90 0.35 Thailand : 2.13 17.70 0.00 10.20 8.75 0.88 Vietnam : 3.47 21.34 0.04 18.20 3.75 2.89 Major importers 5/ : 11.69 58.39 10.20 68.70 0.34 11.24 Brazil : 0.69 8.60 0.60 8.40 0.05 1.44 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.68 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.85 Indonesia : 4.34 34.25 1.25 36.65 0.00 3.19 Nigeria : 0.78 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 0.58 Philippines : 3.81 9.10 1.35 10.25 0.00 4.01 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.89 2.28 3.20 5.32 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.10 1.66 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.15 China : 67.22 112.46 1.00 135.40 1.20 44.09 Egypt : 0.77 3.97 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.74 Japan : 1.32 7.09 0.70 8.44 0.20 0.47 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.60 0.73 0.00 0.24 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.18 4.87 0.18 0.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-411-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 85.51 401.77 24.55 417.86 25.51 69.42 June : 82.42 399.82 24.55 417.33 25.31 64.92 United States : May : 0.70 6.91 0.46 3.75 3.52 0.79 June : 0.70 6.91 0.46 3.75 3.52 0.79 Total foreign : May : 84.81 394.87 24.09 414.11 21.99 68.63 June : 81.72 392.92 24.09 413.57 21.79 64.13 Major exporters 4/ : May : 16.61 134.40 0.04 118.15 16.75 16.15 June : 16.61 134.40 0.04 118.15 16.75 16.15 India May : 12.50 90.00 0.00 86.50 2.75 13.25 Jun : 12.50 90.00 0.00 86.50 2.75 13.25 Pakistan May : 0.35 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.60 Jun : 0.35 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.60 Thailand May : 0.88 17.90 0.00 10.30 8.00 0.48 Jun : 0.88 17.90 0.00 10.30 8.00 0.48 Vietnam May : 2.89 21.50 0.04 18.60 4.00 1.83 Jun : 2.89 21.50 0.04 18.60 4.00 1.83 Major importers 5/ : May : 11.47 58.19 10.03 68.87 0.46 10.35 June : 11.24 58.19 9.88 68.35 0.36 10.59 Brazil May : 1.44 8.10 0.60 8.45 0.05 1.64 Jun : 1.44 8.10 0.60 8.45 0.05 1.64 EU-25 6/ May : 0.93 1.71 1.15 2.46 0.35 0.98 Jun : 0.85 1.71 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.78 Indonesia May : 3.19 34.40 2.00 36.60 0.00 2.99 Jun : 3.19 34.40 2.00 36.60 0.00 2.99 Nigeria May : 0.58 2.30 1.60 4.03 0.00 0.45 Jun : 0.58 2.30 1.60 4.03 0.00 0.45 Philippines May : 4.01 9.10 0.50 10.50 0.00 3.11 Jun : 4.01 9.10 0.50 9.92 0.00 3.69 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 1.13 2.30 3.10 5.41 0.06 1.07 Jun : 0.99 2.30 3.10 5.41 0.06 0.93 Selected other : Burma May : 1.56 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.01 Jun : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 C. Am & Car. 8/May : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 Jun : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 China May : 46.92 122.50 1.30 135.70 1.20 33.82 Jun : 44.09 120.75 1.30 135.70 1.20 29.24 Egypt May : 0.74 4.00 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.71 Jun : 0.74 4.00 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.71 Japan May : 0.47 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 0.47 Jun : 0.47 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 0.47 Mexico May : 0.21 0.19 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.18 Jun : 0.24 0.19 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.21 South Korea May : 0.70 4.80 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.86 Jun : 0.61 4.80 0.21 4.94 0.00 0.68 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-411-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World : 47.40 88.28 30.45 98.66 30.62 0.25 36.59 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.38 Total foreign : 39.95 71.07 30.38 91.39 18.72 0.08 31.21 Major exporters 4/ : 11.11 24.24 1.44 14.11 14.22 0.01 8.45 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.93 6.88 3/ 1.82 5.34 0.00 1.65 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.12 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.72 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.89 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.23 Major importers : 26.75 43.78 23.92 70.60 3.31 0.06 20.47 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 5.13 10.60 1.22 13.30 0.05 0.00 3.59 Mexico : 0.72 0.19 2.30 2.10 0.07 0.03 1.02 China : 12.61 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 7.68 EU-25 8/ : 1.74 2.15 3.93 4.84 1.59 0.06 1.34 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.26 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.46 0.16 8.87 8.91 0.06 0.08 2.45 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.40 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.94 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World : 36.59 93.46 33.59 98.61 32.99 0.02 32.03 United States : 5.38 18.26 0.05 6.30 13.80 -0.01 3.60 Total foreign : 31.21 75.21 33.54 92.31 19.19 0.03 28.43 Major exporters 4/ : 8.45 24.44 2.66 14.45 13.96 -0.04 7.18 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.75 9.60 0.15 0.03 1.98 Central Asia 5/ : 1.65 6.84 0.01 1.89 5.16 0.00 1.44 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.43 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 1.89 2.97 0.53 1.14 2.86 -0.08 1.46 Australia : 1.23 1.40 3/ 0.08 2.05 -0.10 0.61 Major importers : 20.47 47.59 26.17 71.21 3.76 0.06 19.21 Brazil : 2.88 5.65 0.48 3.75 0.95 -0.10 4.40 India : 3.59 13.10 0.90 13.30 0.55 0.00 3.74 Mexico : 1.02 0.31 1.45 2.00 0.13 0.03 0.63 China : 7.68 22.30 8.80 32.20 0.20 0.00 6.38 EU-25 8/ : 1.34 1.96 3.14 3.95 1.46 0.06 0.98 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.29 4.10 2.20 6.20 0.40 0.00 0.99 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.45 0.17 7.73 8.31 0.08 0.08 1.88 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.60 0.07 1.70 1.95 0.01 0.03 0.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-411-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World : May : 32.66 102.50 30.80 99.00 30.50 0.00 36.46 June : 32.03 102.88 31.62 99.86 31.28 0.03 35.35 United States : May : 3.60 17.60 0.04 5.80 11.50 0.04 3.90 June : 3.60 17.60 0.04 5.80 11.50 0.04 3.90 Total foreign : May : 29.06 84.90 30.76 93.20 19.00 -0.04 32.56 June : 28.43 85.28 31.58 94.06 19.78 -0.01 31.45 Major exporters 4/ : June : 7.18 27.58 2.30 14.62 14.26 -0.05 8.24 Pakistan Jun : 1.98 8.75 1.35 9.80 0.20 0.03 2.06 Central Asia 5/Jun : 1.44 7.30 3/ 1.95 5.12 0.00 1.66 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jun : 1.28 4.42 3/ 0.20 4.16 0.00 1.34 S. Hemis 7/ Jun : 1.46 4.20 0.40 1.10 3.13 -0.09 1.92 Australia Jun : 0.61 2.50 3/ 0.07 2.20 -0.10 0.94 Major importers Jun : 19.21 54.56 24.54 72.96 4.29 0.04 21.03 Brazil Jun : 4.40 6.50 0.50 3.90 2.20 -0.10 5.40 India Jun : 3.74 12.00 1.30 13.50 0.10 0.00 3.44 Mexico Jun : 0.63 0.55 1.55 1.90 0.20 0.03 0.61 China Jun : 6.38 29.00 6.25 34.20 0.20 0.00 7.23 EU-25 8/ Jun : 0.98 2.10 2.89 3.62 1.30 0.06 0.99 Russia Jun : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Jun : 0.99 4.25 2.17 6.10 0.23 0.00 1.08 Sel. Asia 9/ Jun : 1.88 0.17 8.40 8.30 0.06 0.05 2.04 Indonesia Jun : 0.37 0.04 2.25 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.39 Thailand Jun : 0.38 0.07 2.10 2.05 0.01 0.00 0.49 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-411-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 32.18 197.31 62.87 164.91 190.57 62.07 39.72 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.97 47.51 28.44 4.85 Total foreign : 26.52 122.30 62.74 120.94 143.07 33.63 34.87 Major exporters 3/ : 21.33 92.50 1.72 51.90 55.92 32.04 27.59 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.48 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.32 27.17 29.76 20.13 15.00 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.79 51.37 53.61 67.71 0.32 6.43 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.08 0.89 16.82 16.26 17.84 0.03 0.93 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 39.72 189.12 58.60 168.57 195.38 59.05 33.01 United States : 4.85 65.80 0.22 40.14 43.25 24.49 3.13 Total foreign : 34.87 123.32 58.38 128.43 152.13 34.56 29.88 Major exporters 3/ : 27.59 90.60 1.00 57.38 61.91 32.35 24.94 Argentina : 12.48 34.00 0.30 24.78 26.31 8.78 11.70 Brazil : 15.00 52.60 0.70 31.25 34.16 21.00 13.14 Major importers 4/ : 6.43 18.13 47.59 52.98 67.72 0.34 4.09 China : 4.47 16.00 19.00 27.60 36.94 0.28 2.25 EU-25 : 0.93 0.73 15.59 14.92 16.38 0.03 0.84 Japan : 0.71 0.23 4.85 3.80 5.14 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 4.10 4.20 4.23 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : June : 33.01 224.97 65.85 181.65 210.77 66.36 46.69 United States : June : 3.13 80.69 0.14 44.91 48.99 28.99 5.99 Total foreign : June : 29.88 144.27 65.71 136.74 161.78 37.38 40.70 Major exporters 3/ : June : 24.94 110.00 1.15 62.60 67.63 35.02 33.44 Argentina Jun : 11.70 39.00 0.35 26.00 27.57 8.82 14.66 Brazil Jun : 13.14 66.00 0.80 35.00 38.36 23.20 18.38 Major importers 4/ : June : 4.09 19.84 53.91 55.84 71.30 0.26 6.28 China Jun : 2.25 17.50 24.00 29.20 39.10 0.20 4.45 EU-25 Jun : 0.84 0.84 16.09 15.50 16.94 0.03 0.80 Japan Jun : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Mexico Jun : 0.04 0.11 4.40 4.48 4.51 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-411-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 4.15 130.66 43.56 132.46 42.15 3.77 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.38 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.93 96.00 43.41 103.08 36.69 3.57 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 42.77 0.32 9.87 33.44 0.88 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.75 21.46 0.32 8.13 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.51 1.23 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.38 36.49 26.60 62.14 1.14 1.19 EU-25 : 1.05 12.88 21.64 34.36 0.35 0.87 China : 0.00 21.50 0.00 20.71 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.77 133.87 46.89 134.32 46.66 3.54 United States : 0.20 31.78 0.43 28.40 3.86 0.16 Total foreign : 3.57 102.09 46.45 105.93 42.80 3.38 Major exporters 3/ : 0.88 49.10 0.28 9.98 39.54 0.74 Argentina : 0.20 19.82 0.00 0.24 19.69 0.10 Brazil : 0.64 24.68 0.28 8.55 16.45 0.60 India : 0.04 4.60 0.00 1.19 3.40 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 36.11 28.95 64.06 1.02 1.18 EU-25 : 0.87 11.86 23.80 35.38 0.30 0.85 China : 0.00 22.22 0.05 21.57 0.70 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : June : 3.54 144.15 48.53 143.17 48.80 4.26 United States : June : 0.16 35.62 0.15 30.66 5.04 0.23 Total foreign : June : 3.38 108.54 48.38 112.50 43.76 4.03 Major exporters 3/ : June : 0.74 52.22 0.15 11.38 40.38 1.36 Argentina Jun : 0.10 20.69 0.00 0.24 20.15 0.40 Brazil Jun : 0.60 27.65 0.15 9.35 18.13 0.92 India Jun : 0.04 3.88 0.00 1.79 2.10 0.04 Major importers 4/ : June : 1.18 38.09 29.90 67.12 0.93 1.11 EU-25 Jun : 0.85 12.32 24.50 36.60 0.31 0.77 China Jun : 0.00 23.50 0.00 22.90 0.60 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-411-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 2.55 30.48 8.62 30.66 9.17 1.82 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.48 22.11 8.60 22.91 8.14 1.14 Major exporters 3/ : 0.54 12.54 0.12 5.50 7.31 0.38 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.19 0.07 3.07 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.24 2.97 0.05 2.32 0.71 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.07 8.45 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.26 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.11 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.82 30.98 8.96 31.04 9.25 1.46 United States : 0.68 7.48 0.11 7.42 0.39 0.46 Total foreign : 1.14 23.50 8.85 23.63 8.87 1.00 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 13.28 0.09 5.46 7.94 0.35 Argentina : 0.05 4.61 0.00 0.11 4.51 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.97 0.07 3.23 2.82 0.09 EU-25 : 0.23 2.70 0.02 2.12 0.61 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 6.00 3.22 9.21 0.03 0.37 China : 0.25 4.93 2.36 7.31 0.01 0.23 India : 0.13 1.06 0.75 1.79 0.02 0.14 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : June : 1.47 33.40 10.04 32.97 10.22 1.71 United States : June : 0.46 8.42 0.05 7.85 0.52 0.56 Total foreign : June : 1.00 24.97 9.99 25.12 9.70 1.15 Major exporters 3/ : June : 0.35 14.32 0.10 5.67 8.69 0.41 Argentina Jun : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Brazil Jun : 0.09 6.68 0.05 3.35 3.37 0.10 EU-25 Jun : 0.22 2.80 0.05 2.20 0.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : June : 0.37 6.11 3.92 9.93 0.03 0.44 China Jun : 0.23 5.21 2.66 7.80 0.02 0.28 India Jun : 0.14 0.90 1.15 2.02 0.01 0.16 Pakistan Jun : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-411-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ ============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : ============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2003 : II : 6902 4741 11740 8275 1439 9846 21586 1802 44.0 III : 7081 4807 11980 8448 1409 9985 21965 1823 41.7 IV : 5973 5499 11575 8240 1423 9780 21355 1858 41.5 Annual : 26238 19945 46574 32749 5650 38902 85476 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I : 5834 5130 11061 8208 1302 9627 20688 1816 42.7 II*: 6360 4900 11352 8515 1370 10010 21362 1835 43.6 III*: 6675 4965 11730 8725 1350 10205 21935 1865 41.6 IV*: 6000 5440 11536 8475 1375 9970 21506 1880 41.8 Annual : May Proj : 25086 20485 45950 34066 5442 40000 85950 7391 169.8 Jun Proj : 24869 20435 45679 33923 5397 39812 85491 7396 169.7 : 2005 : I*: 5725 5050 10869 8400 1315 9830 20699 1845 43.1 Annual : May Proj : 24350 20315 45036 35125 5575 41190 86226 7495 172.1 Jun Proj : 24350 20315 45036 35125 5575 41190 86226 7495 172.2 ============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2003 : II : 78.49 42.64 59.6 60.6 73.9 11.00 III : 83.07 42.90 63.4 59.1 89.9 13.30 IV : 99.38 36.89 64.6 67.4 110.7 14.40 Annual : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.52 : 2004 : I : 82.16 44.18 73.2 62.1 114.8 14.07 II*: 88-89 54-55 77-78 65-66 82-83 18.95-19.15 III*: 82-86 49-51 73-77 65-69 85-89 16.65-17.15 IV*: 85-93 40-44 70-76 67-73 93-101 15.15-15.95 Annual : May Proj : 83-86 45-47 71-75 63-66 95-100 16.30-16.80 Jun Proj : 84-88 47-49 73-76 65-67 94-97 16.20-16.60 : 2005 : I*: 82-88 47-51 68-74 59-63 96-104 12.85-13.85 Annual : May Proj : 82-89 44-47 68-74 64-69 91-99 13.05-14.05 Jun Proj : 83-89 45-49 69-75 64-69 91-99 13.05-14.05 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-411-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2003 : 691 26339 3006 30036 2523 518 26995 64.9 2004 Proj. May : 518 25187 3315 29020 465 525 28030 66.7 Jun : 518 24970 3433 28921 451 525 27945 66.5 2005 Proj. May : 525 24451 3340 28316 600 550 27166 64.1 Jun : 525 24451 3420 28396 600 550 27246 64.2 : PORK : 2003 : 533 19966 1185 21684 1717 532 19435 51.8 2004 Proj. May : 532 20506 1130 22168 1945 460 19763 52.2 Jun : 532 20456 1130 22118 2073 460 19585 51.7 2005 Proj. May : 460 20336 1090 21886 2035 460 19391 50.7 Jun : 460 20336 1090 21886 2085 460 19341 50.6 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2003 : 1238 46710 4358 52306 4247 1059 47000 118.4 2004 Proj. May : 1059 46086 4625 51770 2415 994 48361 120.6 Jun : 1059 45815 4751 51625 2530 994 48101 119.9 2005 Proj. May : 994 45172 4613 50779 2639 1019 47121 116.4 Jun : 994 45172 4701 50867 2689 1019 47159 116.5 : BROILERS : 2003 : 763 32399 12 33173 4932 608 27633 81.5 2004 Proj. May : 608 33701 12 34321 4600 600 29121 85.1 Jun : 608 33560 22 34190 4299 600 29291 85.6 2005 Proj. May : 600 34749 12 35361 4900 600 29861 86.4 Jun : 600 34749 12 35361 4800 600 29961 86.7 : TURKEYS : 2003 : 333 5576 1 5911 482 354 5074 17.4 2004 Proj. May : 354 5371 2 5727 455 325 4946 16.8 Jun : 354 5326 2 5682 408 300 4973 16.9 2005 Proj. May : 325 5502 1 5828 495 325 5007 16.9 Jun : 300 5502 1 5803 495 300 5007 16.9 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2003 : 1101 38477 16 39595 5511 965 33118 100.4 2004 Proj. May : 965 39563 18 40546 5195 929 34421 103.1 Jun : 965 39378 28 40371 4844 904 34622 103.7 2005 Proj. May : 929 40741 17 41687 5495 929 35262 104.6 Jun : 904 40741 17 41662 5395 904 35362 104.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2003 : 2339 85187 4374 91901 9758 2024 80118 218.8 2004 Proj. May : 2024 85649 4643 92316 7610 1923 82782 223.7 Jun : 2024 85193 4779 91996 7374 1898 82723 223.6 2005 Proj. May : 1923 85913 4630 92466 8134 1948 82383 221.0 Jun : 1898 85913 4718 92529 8084 1923 82521 221.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-411-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2004 Projected : 2005 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2002 : 2003 : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 15.0 15.0 Production : 7268.0 7273.0 7391.0 7396.0 7495.0 7495.0 Imports : 15.0 13.3 12.0 12.4 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7293.4 7296.6 7416.7 7422.1 7522.0 7522.0 : Use : Exports : 174.0 146.4 110.0 108.2 140.0 140.0 Hatching use : 961.3 959.4 999.3 989.3 1030.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 13.7 15.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6147.8 6177.1 6292.4 6309.6 6338.0 6338.0 Per capita (number) : 255.9 254.7 256.8 257.5 256.2 256.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Proj 1/: 2004/05 Proj 1/ Commodity :2001/02:2002/03:-----------------:------------------ : 1/ : 1/ : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 8.7 8.7 Production : 169.3 170.4 169.6 169.5 171.5 171.7 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 168.2 169.3 168.5 168.4 170.6 170.7 Imports 2/ : 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 182.1 185.5 184.7 184.6 184.4 184.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 170.6 173.3 176.0 175.9 176.1 176.2 Ending commercial stks. 2: 11.2 11.0 8.7 8.7 8.2 8.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 9.6 8.8 2.6 2.8 3.8 3.9 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 11.03 10.63 15.60- 15.25- 11.85- 11.85- : 15.80 15.45 12.85 12.85 : Class IV : 11.22 10.05 12.30- 12.20- 11.00- 11.00- : 12.60 12.50 12.20 12.20 : All milk 5/ : 12.74 11.91 16.20- 16.00- 13.15- 13.20- : 16.40 16.20 14.15 14.20 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4: Butter : 0 29 -6 -6 0 0 Cheese : 9 47 7 7 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 817 719 220 235 320 330 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-411-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 23-year record of the differences between the June projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the June projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.6 million tons (2.9%) ranging from -32.2 to 29.6 million tons. The June projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 10 times. Reliability of June Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.9 15.6 -32.2 29.6 13 10 U.S. : 4.8 2.9 -7.4 8.4 13 10 Foreign : 3.0 14.3 -26.2 28.2 12 11 Exports : World : 4.2 4.8 -16.6 12.3 14 8 U.S. : 8.7 2.9 -10.0 7.8 13 10 Foreign : 4.8 3.9 -11.6 6.5 16 7 Domestic use : World : 1.8 9.7 -27.5 19.6 14 9 U.S. : 6.2 2.0 -6.4 3.2 15 8 Foreign : 1.8 8.8 -24.2 18.1 14 9 Ending stocks : World : 9.9 12.7 -26.7 29.7 14 9 U.S. : 16.0 3.6 -9.6 14.9 13 10 Foreign : 10.1 10.2 -21.5 14.9 13 10 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 2.8 22.5 -31.4 76.0 9 14 U.S. : 9.7 19.7 -35.9 70.3 10 13 Foreign : 2.1 12.2 -29.9 39.5 7 16 Exports : World : 5.9 6.1 -9.4 16.5 15 8 U.S. : 16.0 8.4 -22.8 15.3 9 14 Foreign : 13.5 7.0 -19.1 14.2 12 11 Domestic use : World : 1.6 12.8 -19.4 33.2 8 15 U.S. : 4.3 7.7 -16.6 33.0 15 8 Foreign : 1.5 9.7 -12.7 33.5 9 14 Ending stocks : World : 15.2 19.7 -69.9 48.0 13 10 U.S. : 35.5 17.1 -57.6 43.9 11 12 Foreign : 13.7 10.0 -26.3 14.0 16 7 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.8 -21.8 15.2 16 7 U.S. : 5.8 0.3 -1.1 0.5 14 9 Foreign : 2.3 7.8 -21.9 15.3 15 8 Exports : World : 8.6 1.7 -7.5 1.1 16 7 U.S. : 8.9 0.3 -1.0 0.7 13 7 Foreign : 9.4 1.6 -7.1 0.9 17 6 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.7 -20.3 5.0 19 4 U.S. : 7.5 0.2 -0.5 0.5 10 13 Foreign : 1.7 5.7 -20.8 5.2 20 3 Ending stocks : World : 11.9 5.1 -13.5 8.2 14 9 U.S. : 27.1 0.3 -0.9 0.9 10 11 Foreign : 12.6 5.1 -14.2 8.3 15 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-411-33 Reliability of June Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.9 4.6 -11.3 12.0 10 13 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 13.3 2.6 -6.4 6.4 13 10 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 6.1 2.4 -7.2 5.4 15 8 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 47.4 3.0 -7.1 8.4 6 17 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.3 3.6 -13.9 11.4 13 9 U.S. : 8.7 1.3 -2.8 3.1 10 13 Foreign : 4.5 3.1 -12.4 10.5 12 11 Exports : World : 5.5 1.4 -4.2 2.7 11 12 U.S. : 19.7 1.1 -2.4 3.0 15 8 Foreign : 6.2 1.1 -3.5 1.9 10 13 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.1 -7.9 4.5 10 13 U.S. : 8.3 0.7 -1.4 1.3 12 10 Foreign : 2.7 2.1 -7.2 4.3 11 12 Ending stocks : World : 14.7 5.2 -14.3 15.2 14 9 U.S. : 34.0 1.4 -3.4 3.5 11 12 Foreign : 13.8 4.3 -13.4 12.5 16 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 23 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-411-34 Reliability of United States June Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 11.9 806 -3327 2379 11 12 Exports : 17.6 316 -850 588 9 14 Domestic use : 8.0 543 -5888 1095 15 8 Ending stocks : 42.6 601 -2091 1460 11 12 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.8 104 -228 171 10 13 Exports : 17.5 41 -105 97 10 13 Domestic use : 16.1 62 -139 100 11 12 Ending stocks : 49.7 67 -189 191 7 16 : BARLEY : Production : 10.1 37 -73 206 7 16 Exports : 32.6 19 -92 53 13 9 Domestic use : 10.9 39 -72 95 12 11 Ending stocks : 15.0 25 -59 79 9 14 : OATS : Production : 16.6 42 -77 231 6 17 Exports : 78.7 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 8.1 28 -39 160 8 15 Ending stocks : 17.0 20 -59 77 6 15 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.2 1566 -3721 4432 14 9 Exports : 17.7 1094 -2650 1964 12 11 Domestic use : 3.9 884 -1800 2259 14 9 Ending stocks : 33.8 79 -204 488 10 13 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.0 712 -1923 1760 14 9 Exports : 27.0 438 -1700 914 11 12 Domestic use : 3.2 417 -985 1050 16 7 Ending stocks : 35.3 499 -1023 1288 11 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.6 383 -348 819 16 6 Pork : 1.9 304 -579 676 15 7 Broilers : 1.0 253 -507 596 13 8 Turkeys : 1.4 60 -210 116 12 10 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.8 51 -83 125 16 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.5 0.8 -2.7 2.1 10 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 23 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2003 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1980/81 thru 2002/03 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----------- End of File -----------------