WASDE-400 July 11, 2003 Note: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For other crops, area estimates reflect the June 30 NASS Acreage report, and methods used to project yield are noted on each table. Survey-based area, yield, and production forecasts reported by NASS will be adopted in the August 12 issue of this report. Beginning with today's report, world supply and demand for soybeans and total oilseeds excludes intra-EU trade. Historical revisions are available at www.usda.gov/oce. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are up 134 million bushels from last month due to a sharply larger supply and only a small increase in expected use. Total wheat production is forecast at 2.311 billion bushels, up more than 40 percent from last year and the largest crop since 1998/1999. Forecast winter wheat production is 90 million bushels above last month due to higher yields. The first survey-based spring wheat (including durum) production forecast is well above last month's projections, despite lower planted area estimates in the June 30 Acreage report. Both the harvested-to-planted ratio and yield are higher than the averages assumed last month. Supplies are also boosted by larger reported carryin stocks than forecast last month. Projected exports are up 25 million bushels due to larger U.S. supplies, lower U.S. prices, and reduced competition. The projected 2003/04 price range is down 10 cents on each end to $2.80 to $3.40 per bushel. Projected 2003/04 world wheat production is down slightly from last month but use drops more, leaving ending stocks up slightly from last month. Foreign production is down slightly from last month as reductions for Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Pakistan are only partially offset by increases for Canada and North Africa. Smaller supplies in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Pakistan result in higher imports and reduced domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Russia's smaller crop is reflected in smaller domestic use, while EU exports, domestic use, and ending stocks decline from last month's projections. With the larger prospective crops, Canada's exports are increased while North Africa's imports are reduced. Projected global ending stocks are up from last month due to the larger U.S. crop, but are still down sharply from a year earlier. COARSE GRAINS: The 2003/04 outlook for U.S. feed grains is for bigger crops, rising use, and slightly higher stocks. Projected 2003/04 corn production is up 210 million bushels from last month because crop conditions indicate prospective yields are higher than the trend yields used last month. However, all but 10 million bushels of the production gain is offset by reduced carryin stocks and higher use of corn for the production of ethanol. The projected price range for corn is unchanged from last month at $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel. Forecast U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are down 75 million bushels from last month due to higher prospective use of corn in ethanol production and a 50-million-bushel increase in feed and residual use. Feed and residual use is higher because the June 1 stocks report indicated higher than expected use in the March-May quarter. Global 2003/04 coarse grain supply and use projections are up from last month, largely because of the bigger U.S. corn crop. Foreign coarse grain production is little changed from last month as reductions for Eastern Europe and Ukraine are largely offset by increases for Canada and several other countries. Lower prospective corn exports for Eastern Europe are offset by increased exports by Brazil from the 2002/03 crop. Brazil's 2002/03 crop is revised up 3 million tons to a record 43.5 million tons. The larger Brazilian corn crop also accounts for much of the rise in projected global coarse grain stocks. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2003/04 is projected at 195 million cwt, down 4 million cwt from last month and about 16 million cwt below 2002/03. Estimated harvested area of 2.97 million acres reported in the NASS Acreage report is 46,000 acres below last month, 240,000 acres below 2002/03, and the lowest since 1996/97. Average yield for 2003/04 is adjusted slightly lower because of a change in the distribution of reported area by type of rice. Long-grain rice production is projected at 145 million cwt, 2 million cwt above last month but 12.2 million cwt below 2002/03. Combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 50 million cwt, 6 million cwt below last month, and down 3.7 million cwt from 2002/03. Projected imports for 2003/04 are raised slightly to 15 million cwt. Exports in 2003/04 are projected at 87 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from last month and 33 million cwt below the revised 2002/03 estimate. Ending stocks are projected at 17.5 million cwt, down 5 million cwt from last month, about 3 million cwt below the revised 2002/03 estimate, and the lowest stocks since 1980/81. The season-average farm price range for 2003/04 is raised $1.00 per cwt on each end to $6.25 to $6.75 per cwt compared to $4.18 per cwt for 2002/03. U.S. exports for 2002/03 are forecast at a record 120 million cwt, 3 million cwt above last month. Rough rice exports for 2002/03 are increased to a record 45 million cwt and combined milled and brown exports (rough-equivalent basis) are raised to 75 million cwt, up 1 and 2 million cwt, respectively, from a month ago. The increase is based largely on Census data reported through April and data from the U.S. Export Sales report. Global rice production for 2003/04 is projected at 394 million tons, slightly above last month's largely trend-based projection, but nearly 13 million tons above 2002/03. Global consumption for 2003/04 is projected at a record 412 million tons, slightly above last month and 2002/03. Global consumption is projected to exceed production for the third consecutive year, resulting in a further drawdown in stocks to 88.6 million tons, 3.5 million tons below last month, 18.1 million tons below 2002/03, and the lowest stocks since 1984/85. Global exports in 2003/04 are projected at 25.4 million tons, nearly the same as last month, but nearly 2 million tons below 2002/03. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2003/04 are projected at 8.0 million tons, up 2.8 million tons from 2002/03. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 87.9 million tons, up 4.6 million tons from 2002/03, primarily reflecting increased soybean production. Soybean production is projected at 2.89 billion bushels (78.5 million tons), up 30 million bushels from last month because harvested area reported in the June 30 Acreage report is above the June projection. Increased yields for other oilseeds, especially sunflowerseed, will result in modest year-to-year production gains despite lower area. Total oilseed use for the U.S. is projected to rise modestly for 2003/04 as gains in domestic use are mostly offset by lower exports. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 990 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from last month, but down 40 million bushels from 2002/03. The decline from 2002/03 reflects strong competition expected from anticipated record soybean crops and stocks in South America. U.S. soybean crush is projected to increase only 15 million bushels for 2003/04, reflecting relatively slow growth in domestic soybean meal use and limited soybean meal export prospects. Soybean oil supplies are expected to decline for 2003/04 due to reduced beginning stocks and the small increase in soybean crush. Expected modest growth in domestic soybean oil use will curtail exports for 2003/04, which are projected to decline by over 1 billion pounds to 1.1 billion pounds. The projected season-average soybean price for 2003/04 is lowered 10 cents on each end to $4.35 to $5.35 per bushel, compared with $5.50 per bushel for 2002/03. The lower price is the result of projected increases in global stocks and increased oilseed supplies. The soybean meal price range is lowered 5 dollars on each end to $145 to $175 per short ton, compared with $175 per ton projected for 2002/03. Soybean oil prices are projected at 18 to 21 cents for 2003/04, down from 22 cents for 2002/03, reflecting significantly larger global oilseed supplies. Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at a record 352.1 million tons, up 24.4 million tons from 2002/03. Foreign oilseed production of 264.2 million tons is up 19.8 million tons from 2002/03. Almost half of the increase in global production is for soybeans, with record crops indicated for Brazil and Argentina at 56 million tons and 37 million tons, respectively. Combined soybean production for Brazil and Argentina, which trailed U.S. soybean production just two years ago, is expected to exceed U.S. production by over 15 percent. Expected global production of other oilseeds is up 12.7 million tons, led by sharp increases for rapeseed and cottonseed. Rapeseed production for Canada rises almost 3 million tons due to higher area and a rebound from drought-reduced yields. China's rapeseed production is expected to rise by over 1 million tons to 11.6 million tons. Global cottonseed production for 2003/04 increases by over 3 million tons, with China accounting for about half of the gain. Global consumption growth of both protein meals and vegetable oils in 2003/04 is expected to exceed 4 percent. Protein demand growth will be driven by strong gains in China and several other Asian and Mideastern countries. Protein meal consumption for China is expected to increase by 8 percent, led by gains for soybean meal. However, increased oilseed production in China will limit oilseed import growth, with soybean imports projected to reach 18.5 million tons compared with 18.2 million tons in 2002/03. Global vegetable oil consumption is expected to gain 4-5 percent, led by gains in China and in India. India is expected to show a moderate gain in per capita oil consumption after a decline in 2002/03. U.S. soybean exports for 2002/03 are forecast at 1,030 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month. Seed use is increased slightly due to higher planted area reported in the June 30 Acreage report. These increases in use are more than offset by a 36-million-bushel reduction in residual use, raising soybean ending stocks for 2002/03 by 15 million bushels, to 155 million bushels. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2003/04 is reduced 60,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Lower cane sugar production in Florida more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The decrease in Florida production reflects lower-than- expected area intended for sugarcane harvest reported in the June Acreage report. For fiscal year 2002/03, imports under the re- export programs are increased 40,000 tons based on higher-than- expected pace to date. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Note: The discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada resulted in the United States placing a ban on imports of ruminant animals and products from that country as of May 20. Due to uncertainties as to the length of the ban, the impact of BSE in this report is limited to the impacts of the ban to date. Subsequent estimates will reflect information available at that time. Total U.S. meat production in 2003 and 2004 is projected higher than last month. Forecast 2003 beef and broiler production is raised but forecast pork production is reduced fractionally. Larger- than-expected cattle slaughter in the second quarter has increased near-term beef production forecasts, and higher forecast placements through the summer are expected to lead to larger beef production in the latter part of 2003 and early 2004. The release of USDA's Cattle report on July 18 will provide a basis for reevaluating beef production into 2004. Broiler production forecasts for 2003 are raised as heavier bird weights more than offset continued lower egg sets and chick placements. The 2003 pork production forecast is little changed from last month as higher-than- expected hog slaughter in the second quarter is more than offset by declines in forecast fourth-quarter slaughter. The June 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that although producers intend to cut back on production, the rate of decline is less than previously expected. Thus, projected 2004 pork production is raised from last month. Broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2004 are unchanged. Meat imports for 2003 are reduced. Beef import forecasts in the second and third quarters reflect the cutoff of Canadian beef since May 20. Pork imports are raised from last month for both 2003 and 2004. The meat export forecast for second-quarter 2003 is lowered as beef and poultry exports for the quarter to date are below expectations. Beef sales to Mexico have been weak and poultry sales to Asian markets are lower than expected. Cattle prices for 2003 and 2004 are forecast lower than last month as higher beef production is expected to limit cattle price gains. Hog price forecasts for 2003 are higher than last month as strong beef prices supported second-quarter hog prices and the fourth- quarter hog price forecast is raised. Broiler price forecasts are unchanged from last month but turkey price forecasts for 2003 are lowered. Pork and poultry price forecasts for 2004 are unchanged. Dairy production forecasts for 2002/03 and 2003/04 are lowered from last month as milk-per-cow forecasts are reduced. Cheese prices have risen sharply and are expected to remain above spring levels through the fall. As a result, the 2002/03 Class III price forecast is raised to $10.15 to $10.25. However, due to continued large stocks of butter and surpluses of nonfat dry milk, the Class IV price is not expected to respond much to higher cheese prices. The Class IV price is forecast at $9.95 to $10.15 per cwt. The average all milk price forecast is raised to $11.60 to $11.70 per cwt. Price forecasts for 2003/04 are little changed from last month. COTTON: This month's U.S. projections for 2003/04 include lower production and domestic mill use, larger exports, and lower stocks. Beginning stocks are 100,000 bales below last month. Projected U.S. production is reduced 3.5 percent this month to 16.6 million bales, reflecting planted area in the June 30 Acreage report combined with historical average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill use is cut sharply to 6.8 million bales, as indicators of both current mill activity and textile trade suggest reduced prospects for next season. U.S. exports are raised 2.6 percent due to increasingly tight foreign supplies relative to demand. Ending stocks are reduced to 3.9 million bales, which is 21 percent of total use. World 2003/04 supply and demand projections show little change from last month. An increase in beginning stocks is about offset by a reduction in world production, which mainly reflects the reduction in the U.S. crop. Likewise, world consumption is little changed as the reduction in U.S. mill use is more than offset by higher consumption overseas. The world trade forecast is adjusted down slightly. World ending stocks, at about 33.0 million bales, are nearly the same as last month and the lowest since 1994/95. For 2002/03, U.S. mill use is reduced 100,000 bales based on recent activity. Exports are raised 200,000 bales to 11.6 million bales, reflecting atypically strong end-of-season shipments. Accordingly, ending stocks are reduced 100,000 bales. The 2002/03 world estimates include higher production and lower consumption, resulting in an increase of nearly 2 percent in ending stocks. Production is raised in Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and others, partially offset by a decrease for Syria. Consumption is reduced in Brazil, the United States, Taiwan, and others, partially offset by an increase for China. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED JAMES A. MOSELEY (for) SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12, 2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. Mark Your Calendar for Outlook Forum 2004 USDA will hold the 80th Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19- 20, 2004, in Arlington, Virginia. Details will be announced in the fall. To receive detailed information, send your address to agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to Outlook Forum 2004, USDA/WAOB, Mail Stop 3812 South Building, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. 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WASDE-400-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 1,872.11 2,408.35 238.58 1,899.59 508.76 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,810.62 2,319.38 230.50 1,907.66 411.72 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 1,858.51 2,272.17 226.31 1,921.31 350.86 July : 1,862.02 2,273.74 225.59 1,921.24 352.50 Wheat : 2001/02 : 581.08 781.74 108.04 584.57 197.17 2002/03 (Est.) : 563.83 761.00 102.14 596.89 164.11 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 561.45 726.53 99.32 589.93 136.61 July : 560.30 724.41 98.92 584.12 140.29 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 892.41 1,079.98 103.52 904.76 175.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 865.38 1,040.60 101.04 899.62 140.97 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 903.34 1,043.55 101.49 921.38 122.17 July : 907.64 1,048.62 101.30 924.95 123.67 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 398.61 546.63 27.03 410.26 136.37 2002/03 (Est.) : 381.40 517.78 27.32 411.15 106.63 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 393.73 502.08 25.50 410.00 92.08 July : 394.08 500.71 25.38 412.17 88.55 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 321.86 405.20 84.29 253.48 67.42 2002/03 (Est.) : 295.54 368.24 72.99 252.31 42.93 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 343.75 393.96 82.53 255.79 55.64 July : 352.57 401.38 83.29 258.97 59.12 Wheat : 2001/02 : 53.26 80.04 26.19 32.70 21.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 43.99 67.27 23.41 30.48 13.38 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 59.23 74.68 25.86 32.39 16.44 July : 62.89 79.00 26.54 32.39 20.08 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 261.86 317.12 55.15 216.92 45.05 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.04 292.79 45.89 217.99 28.91 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 278.29 311.88 53.92 219.47 38.49 July : 283.58 315.16 54.03 222.64 38.49 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 6.74 8.04 2.96 3.87 1.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 6.51 8.19 3.70 3.85 0.64 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 6.23 7.40 2.75 3.94 0.71 July : 6.10 7.22 2.72 3.95 0.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-400-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 1,550.25 2,003.15 154.29 1,646.11 441.33 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,515.08 1,951.14 157.50 1,655.35 368.78 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 1,514.76 1,878.21 143.78 1,665.51 295.22 July : 1,509.45 1,872.36 142.31 1,662.27 293.38 Wheat : 2001/02 : 527.82 701.70 81.85 551.87 176.02 2002/03 (Est.) : 519.84 693.74 78.73 566.41 150.73 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 502.22 651.86 73.46 557.54 120.17 July : 497.40 645.41 72.39 551.74 120.21 Coarse grains 5/ : 2001/02 : 630.55 762.85 48.37 687.84 130.16 2002/03 (Est.) : 620.34 747.81 55.16 681.64 112.06 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 625.05 731.67 47.57 701.92 83.67 July : 624.07 733.46 47.27 702.31 85.17 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 391.87 538.59 24.07 406.40 135.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 374.90 509.59 23.62 407.30 105.99 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 387.50 494.68 22.75 406.06 91.38 July : 387.98 493.49 22.66 408.22 88.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2001/02 : 98.46 141.16 29.05 94.45 47.20 2002/03 (Est.) : 87.72 134.92 30.21 97.83 36.96 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 95.50 131.83 30.70 99.00 33.14 July : 94.84 131.80 29.98 99.14 32.96 : United States 2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.72 11.60 7.30 5.80 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 17.20 23.15 11.50 7.20 4.50 July : 16.60 22.45 11.80 6.80 3.90 : Foreign 3/ 2001/02 : 78.16 114.84 18.05 86.76 39.76 2002/03 (Est.) : 70.51 110.20 18.61 90.53 31.16 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 78.30 108.69 19.20 91.80 28.64 July : 78.24 109.35 18.18 92.34 29.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-400-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 324.46 360.11 64.06 264.57 36.72 2002/03 (Est.) : 327.63 364.34 72.15 268.81 38.24 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 344.00 379.04 July : 352.05 390.30 74.42 286.63 43.43 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 183.06 188.43 53.75 183.86 5.75 2002/03 (Est.) : 187.00 192.76 55.85 187.18 5.79 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : July : 198.62 204.41 59.58 197.29 6.30 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 92.24 100.67 33.59 92.43 7.59 2002/03 (Est.) : 93.57 101.16 35.54 94.29 6.59 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : July : 99.40 105.97 36.47 98.41 6.78 : : United States Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.97 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Est.) : 83.25 90.65 29.04 47.33 5.17 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 87.37 92.72 26.92 48.07 7.72 July : 87.85 93.60 27.74 48.19 7.98 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 38.89 40.34 7.06 32.99 0.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 36.35 37.64 5.64 31.69 0.31 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 37.23 38.75 5.82 32.66 0.27 July : 37.20 38.67 5.66 32.74 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 9.64 13.04 1.55 10.18 1.31 2002/03 (Est.) : 9.15 12.10 1.19 10.05 0.86 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 9.28 12.09 0.79 10.27 0.90 July : 9.30 11.89 0.78 10.30 0.82 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 234.63 261.80 34.09 213.95 29.84 2002/03 (Est.) : 244.38 273.69 43.12 221.48 33.08 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : 256.63 286.32 July : 264.20 296.70 46.68 238.43 35.45 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 144.17 148.09 46.69 150.86 5.46 2002/03 (Est.) : 150.65 155.12 50.21 155.49 5.48 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : July : 161.43 165.74 53.92 164.55 6.03 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 82.59 87.64 32.04 82.25 6.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 84.42 89.07 34.36 84.23 5.73 2003/04 (Proj.) : June : July : 90.10 94.08 35.69 88.11 5.96 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-400-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.6 60.4 61.7 * 60.9 Harvested : 48.6 45.8 52.7 * 52.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 40.2 35.3 41.3 * 43.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 876 777 468 492 Production : 1,957 1,616 2,176 2,311 Imports : 108 78 100 100 Supply, total : 2,941 2,472 2,744 2,903 Food : 926 935 930 930 Seed : 84 83 85 85 Feed and residual : 191 102 175 175 Domestic, total : 1,201 1,120 1,190 1,190 Exports : 962 860 950 975 Use, total : 2,164 1,980 2,140 2,165 Ending stocks : 777 492 604 738 CCC inventory : 99 66 Free stocks : 678 426 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 2.90- 3.50 2.80- 3.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 973 618 417 321 142 2,472 Domestic use : 470 218 257 96 80 1,120 Exports : 315 255 105 150 35 860 Use, total : 785 473 362 246 115 1,980 Ending stocks, total : 189 145 55 75 28 492 : 2003/04 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 189 145 55 75 28 492 Production : 1,091 467 366 293 93 2,311 Supply, total 3/ : 1,281 666 421 383 151 2,903 Domestic use : 496 246 261 102 85 1,190 Exports : 410 240 100 190 35 975 Use, total : 906 486 361 292 120 2,165 Ending stocks, total : 375 179 60 92 31 738 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June Crop Production. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1998-2002. For July: Area planted, area harvested, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production report. WASDE-400-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 95.4 98.7 98.7 * 98.7 * Harvested : 83.6 82.8 87.2 * 87.3 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.13 2.96 3.19 3.25 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 30.9 28.9 Production : 261.7 244.9 278.1 283.4 Imports : 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 Supply, total : 316.8 292.4 311.5 314.8 Feed and residual : 158.5 153.0 152.6 152.6 Food, seed & industrial : 58.1 64.6 66.6 69.7 Domestic, total : 216.6 217.7 219.1 222.3 Exports : 55.1 45.9 53.9 54.0 Use, total : 271.7 263.5 273.0 276.3 Ending stocks, total : 45.0 28.9 38.5 38.5 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1 Free stocks : 44.9 28.8 Outstanding loans : 5.6 6.5 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 75.8 79.1 79.0 * 79.1 * Harvested : 68.8 69.3 72.0 * 72.0 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.2 130.0 139.7 * 142.7 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,084 1,009 Production : 9,507 9,008 10,060 10,270 Imports : 10 15 10 10 Supply, total : 11,416 10,619 11,154 11,289 Feed and residual : 5,861 5,700 5,600 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 2,054 2,310 2,375 2,500 Domestic, total : 7,915 8,010 7,975 8,100 Exports : 1,905 1,600 1,850 1,850 Use, total : 9,820 9,610 9,825 9,950 Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,009 1,329 1,339 CCC inventory : 6 5 Free stocks : 1,590 1,004 Outstanding loans : 213 250 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.25- 2.35 1.90- 2.30 1.90- 2.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June, planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres for corn projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001. Corn projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Corn projected yield is the trend yield adjusted for crop conditions. WASDE-400-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.3 9.6 9.5 * 9.5 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.3 8.2 * 8.1 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.7 67.8 * 67.8 * Beginning stocks : 42 61 46 41 Production : 515 370 553 551 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 556 431 599 592 Feed and residual : 208 165 225 225 Food, seed & industrial : 45 45 55 55 Total domestic : 253 210 280 280 Exports : 242 180 250 250 Use, total : 495 390 530 530 Ending stocks, total : 61 41 69 62 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.30- 2.40 1.65- 2.05 1.65- 2.05 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.1 5.4 * 5.5 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.8 * 4.9 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.2 54.9 62.8 * 59.5 * Beginning stocks : 106 93 63 69 Production : 249 227 300 292 Imports : 24 20 30 30 Supply, total : 380 340 393 391 Feed and residual : 88 68 100 100 Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 173 173 Total domestic : 260 241 273 273 Exports : 26 29 25 30 Use, total : 287 270 298 303 Ending stocks, total : 93 69 95 88 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.72 2.15- 2.55 2.15- 2.55 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.8 * 4.7 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.2 * 2.3 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.4 56.8 61.3 * 64.7 * Beginning stocks : 73 63 58 50 Production : 117 119 135 148 Imports : 96 100 95 95 Supply, total : 286 282 288 293 Feed and residual : 148 158 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 73 Total domestic : 220 230 223 223 Exports : 3 3 2 2 Use, total : 223 233 225 225 Ending stocks, total : 63 50 63 68 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.15- 1.55 1.15- 1.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June-- planted acres reported in March 31, 2003 Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2002 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2002 period. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production. WASDE-400-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.33 3.24 3.04 * 2.99 * Harvested : 3.31 3.21 3.02 * 2.97 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,496 6,578 6,600 * 6,572 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 23.2 20.7 Production : 215.3 211.0 199.0 195.0 Imports : 13.2 14.5 14.5 15.0 Supply, total : 256.9 264.4 236.7 230.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.5 123.7 126.1 126.2 Exports, total 4/ : 94.5 120.0 88.0 87.0 Rough : 32.2 45.0 36.0 37.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.4 75.0 52.0 50.0 Use, total : 218.0 243.7 214.1 213.2 Ending stocks : 39.0 20.7 22.6 17.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.0 68.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.18 5.25- 5.75 6.25- 6.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260 Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 14.6 11.8 Production : 167.6 157.2 143.0 145.0 Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.3 168.1 167.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.9 87.5 89.0 89.0 Exports 8/ : 73.7 95.0 64.0 68.0 Use, total : 161.6 182.5 153.0 157.0 Ending stocks : 26.8 11.8 15.1 10.3 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729 Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 7.1 7.4 Production : 47.7 53.7 56.0 50.0 Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 68.6 67.1 61.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.6 36.2 37.1 37.2 Exports 8/ : 20.8 25.0 24.0 19.0 Use, total : 56.4 61.2 61.1 56.2 Ending stocks : 10.7 7.4 6.0 5.7 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For June: Planted acres reported in March 31, 2003 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1998-2002. For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. For June and July: Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1990-2002 period. WASDE-400-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.1 73.8 73.2 * 73.7** Harvested : 73.0 72.2 71.9 * 72.7** : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 39.6 37.8 39.7 * 39.7** : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 248 208 140 155 Production : 2,891 2,730 2,855 2,885 Imports : 2 4 4 4 Supply, total : 3,141 2,942 2,999 3,044 Crushings : 1,700 1,610 1,620 1,625 Exports : 1,064 1,030 960 990 Seed : 90 90 89 89 Residual : 80 57 _3/ 80 80 Use, total : 2,933 2,787 2,749 2,784 Ending stocks : 208 155 250 260 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.50 4.45- 5.45 4.35 - 5.35 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,505 1,455 Production : 18,898 18,340 18,255 18,315 Imports : 46 55 75 75 Supply, total : 21,821 20,755 19,835 19,845 Domestic : 16,942 17,100 17,400 17,400 Exports : 2,519 2,200 1,100 1,100 Use, total : 19,461 19,300 18,500 18,500 Ending stocks : 2,360 1,455 1,335 1,345 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 22.00 18.00- 18.00- : 21.00 21.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 383 240 250 250 Production : 40,292 37,920 38,560 38,625 Imports : 143 240 240 175 Supply, total : 40,818 38,400 39,050 39,050 Domestic : 33,070 32,150 32,600 32,800 Exports : 7,508 6,000 6,200 6,000 Use, total : 40,578 38,150 38,800 38,800 Ending stocks : 240 250 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 175.00 150.00- 145.00- : 180.00 175.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate a below-average residual. *Planted acres reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted-to-harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional trend analysis. **Planted and harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report. Projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional trend analysis. WASDE-400-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===================== : : Estimate : June July ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,281 1,563 1,603 Production 2/3/ : 7,907 8,404 8,595 8,495 Beet sugar : 3,915 4,450 4,450 4,450 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,992 3,954 4,145 4,045 Imports 2/ : 1,535 1,663 1,581 1,581 TRQ 5/ : 1,158 1,258 1,221 1,221 Other program 6/ : 296 380 325 325 Other 7/ : 81 25 35 35 Total supply : 11,622 11,348 11,739 11,679 : Exports 2/8/ : 137 155 150 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,085 9,790 10,050 10,050 Domestic food use : 9,897 9,600 9,850 9,850 Other 9/ : 188 190 200 200 Miscellaneous 10/ : 119 -200 0 0 Use, total : 10,341 9,745 10,200 10,200 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,281 1,603 1,539 1,479 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.4 16.4 15.1 14.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2003/04 are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2002/03 (projected 2003/04): FL 2,125 (2,000); HI 280 (280); LA 1,360 (1,600); TX 189 (165); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2002/03, available TRQs assume shortfall of 30,000 tons. For 2003/04, includes only the US commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 35,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-400-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.77 13.96 14.25 * 13.92 * Harvested : 13.83 12.43 12.90 * 12.55 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 665 640 * 635 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 5.90 5.80 Production : 20.30 17.21 17.20 16.60 Imports : 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 26.32 24.72 23.15 22.45 Domestic use : 7.70 7.30 7.20 6.80 Exports : 11.00 11.60 11.50 11.80 Use, total : 18.70 18.90 18.70 18.60 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.02 -0.05 -0.05 Ending stocks : 7.45 5.80 4.50 3.90 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 42.8 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2002/03 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-May. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * For June, planted area reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." For July, planted area reported in June 30 "Acreage." For both June and July, projected harvested area based on 1991-2002 average acreage abandonment by State, excluding the high and low years. Projected yields for both June and July based on 1991-2002 average yield per harvested acre by State, excluding the high and low years. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 30.2 percent. WASDE-400-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 200.65 581.08 108.45 108.90 584.57 108.04 197.17 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.21 32.70 26.19 21.15 Total foreign : 176.81 527.82 105.52 103.69 551.87 81.85 176.02 Major exporters 4/ : 24.53 152.12 10.25 54.00 109.18 54.25 23.48 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14 Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 4.72 7.76 16.27 6.53 EU-15 : 9.75 91.20 9.82 46.50 91.10 11.49 8.18 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.32 48.95 12.45 203.20 3.65 92.03 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.90 1.69 10.94 30.54 4.15 6.73 India : 21.50 69.68 0.03 0.50 64.20 3.09 23.93 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.56 20.46 69.31 13.81 17.14 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48 Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 3.00 13.44 5.49 2.96 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 197.17 563.83 103.76 114.42 596.89 102.14 164.11 United States : 21.15 43.99 2.12 2.78 30.48 23.41 13.38 Total foreign : 176.02 519.84 101.64 111.64 566.41 78.73 150.73 Major exporters 4/ : 23.48 140.70 11.86 59.34 114.83 38.00 23.20 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 4.98 6.00 2.47 Australia : 7.63 9.39 0.50 4.03 6.75 8.50 2.27 Canada : 6.53 15.69 0.35 4.95 8.00 8.00 6.57 EU-15 : 8.18 103.32 11.00 50.28 95.10 15.50 11.90 Major importers 5/ : 92.03 139.02 45.30 10.25 198.31 4.10 73.94 Brazil : 0.90 2.94 6.70 0.35 9.85 0.01 0.68 China : 76.59 90.29 0.50 6.50 105.20 1.65 60.53 N. Africa 6/ : 5.66 11.56 17.40 0.30 29.18 0.21 5.24 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.25 0.40 18.60 0.90 1.57 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.25 1.80 9.10 0.33 1.43 Selected other : East. Europe : 6.73 30.55 1.97 10.14 29.72 3.85 5.68 India : 23.93 71.81 0.03 0.60 73.30 4.50 17.96 FSU-12 8/ : 17.14 96.43 3.33 25.56 74.99 25.26 16.64 Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.30 17.50 40.60 13.00 3.73 Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.50 6.66 Ukraine : 2.96 20.55 0.75 4.00 14.50 6.60 3.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-400-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 165.09 561.45 96.28 106.97 589.93 99.32 136.61 July : 164.11 560.30 95.98 103.99 584.12 98.92 140.29 United States : June : 12.73 59.23 2.72 4.76 32.39 25.86 16.44 July : 13.38 62.89 2.72 4.76 32.39 26.54 20.08 Total foreign : June : 152.36 502.22 93.56 102.21 557.54 73.46 120.17 July : 150.73 497.40 93.26 99.23 551.74 72.39 120.21 Major exporters 4/ : June : 22.82 162.50 5.22 57.73 114.10 55.00 21.44 July : 23.20 162.00 5.17 57.73 113.40 55.00 21.97 Argentina Jun : 1.97 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.00 9.50 1.98 Jul : 2.47 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.00 9.50 2.48 Australia Jun : 2.38 23.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 16.50 2.69 Jul : 2.27 23.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 16.50 2.58 Canada Jun : 6.57 24.00 0.20 4.65 7.70 14.50 8.57 Jul : 6.57 25.00 0.15 4.65 7.70 15.00 9.02 EU-15 Jun : 11.90 101.00 5.00 49.50 95.20 14.50 8.20 Jul : 11.90 99.50 5.00 49.50 94.50 14.00 7.90 Major importers 5/ : June : 74.09 138.95 43.20 9.45 196.86 2.70 56.67 July : 73.94 138.65 42.95 9.50 196.76 2.50 56.27 Brazil Jun : 0.68 3.80 6.50 0.35 10.00 0.01 0.98 Jul : 0.68 3.80 6.50 0.35 10.00 0.01 0.98 China Jun : 60.68 87.00 1.50 6.00 104.50 0.80 43.88 Jul : 60.53 87.00 1.50 6.00 104.50 0.80 43.73 N. Africa 6/ Jun : 5.24 15.38 13.70 0.30 29.03 0.21 5.08 Jul : 5.24 15.88 13.20 0.30 29.03 0.21 5.08 Pakistan Jun : 1.57 19.00 0.25 0.40 18.85 0.40 1.57 Jul : 1.57 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.32 SE Asia 7/ Jun : 1.43 0.00 9.05 1.50 9.00 0.33 1.15 Jul : 1.43 0.00 9.05 1.55 9.00 0.33 1.15 Selected other : East. Europe Jun : 6.03 25.78 2.82 9.56 28.95 1.70 3.98 Jul : 5.68 24.93 2.87 9.41 28.58 1.48 3.42 India Jun : 17.46 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 2.00 13.51 Jul : 17.96 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 2.00 14.01 FSU-12 8/ Jun : 18.62 65.33 4.74 20.26 69.10 8.66 10.93 Jul : 16.64 62.18 5.39 17.38 65.12 8.16 10.93 Russia Jun : 3.73 36.00 1.00 14.50 37.50 2.00 1.23 Jul : 3.73 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 2.00 1.23 Kazakhstan Jun : 6.66 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.50 6.58 Jul : 6.66 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.50 6.58 Ukraine Jun : 5.14 7.20 1.00 1.60 11.80 1.00 0.54 Jul : 3.16 6.00 1.50 0.73 9.73 0.50 0.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-400-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 187.56 892.41 101.23 597.54 904.76 103.52 175.22 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 158.57 216.92 55.15 45.05 Total foreign : 134.86 630.55 98.67 438.97 687.84 48.37 130.16 Major exporters 4/ : 7.41 64.34 5.33 35.88 48.58 19.92 8.58 Argentina : 1.27 18.72 0.01 5.47 7.63 11.32 1.05 Australia : 1.31 12.56 0.05 5.50 6.77 4.96 2.20 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.11 20.85 25.16 2.52 3.37 Major importers 5/ : 28.74 159.47 68.33 161.84 218.73 5.53 32.29 EU-15 : 17.37 106.67 4.24 78.03 103.24 5.04 20.00 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.06 27.17 9.05 19.23 35.27 0.05 3.96 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.22 3.82 13.55 18.96 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.85 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.17 Selected other : China : 81.66 122.27 1.96 94.21 133.08 8.63 64.19 East. Europe : 2.65 51.02 1.53 36.54 46.74 3.89 4.57 FSU-12 6/ : 5.93 62.35 1.00 33.71 51.39 6.63 11.26 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.93 17.03 0.10 9.04 12.97 3.49 2.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 175.22 865.38 98.96 590.38 899.62 101.04 140.97 United States : 45.05 245.04 2.69 153.12 217.99 45.89 28.91 Total foreign : 130.16 620.34 96.27 437.26 681.64 55.16 112.06 Major exporters 4/ : 8.58 53.94 4.44 30.31 43.07 17.48 6.41 Argentina : 1.05 19.44 0.03 4.39 6.53 12.76 1.23 Australia : 2.20 5.30 0.01 3.56 4.84 2.05 0.62 Canada : 3.37 19.59 3.99 18.04 22.44 1.65 2.85 Major importers 5/ : 32.29 157.15 67.70 159.77 216.84 6.44 33.85 EU-15 : 20.00 106.13 4.07 76.42 101.59 6.17 22.44 Japan : 2.34 0.22 19.24 15.11 19.74 0.00 2.06 Mexico : 3.96 25.77 9.03 19.22 35.25 0.05 3.45 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.97 4.11 13.72 19.03 0.22 0.88 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 9.21 6.81 9.48 0.00 1.28 Selected other : China : 64.19 129.15 1.92 95.03 136.27 13.55 45.43 East. Europe : 4.57 50.08 1.54 38.80 48.94 3.04 4.21 FSU-12 6/ : 11.26 60.76 0.64 35.11 52.78 8.10 11.78 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.30 18.45 29.85 3.40 7.19 Ukraine : 2.61 17.10 0.15 9.23 13.21 4.03 2.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-400-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 140.21 903.34 99.94 601.01 921.38 101.49 122.17 July : 140.97 907.64 100.44 602.51 924.95 101.30 123.67 United States : June : 30.92 278.29 2.67 152.68 219.47 53.92 38.49 July : 28.91 283.58 2.67 152.68 222.64 54.03 38.49 Total foreign : June : 109.29 625.05 97.27 448.33 701.92 47.57 83.67 July : 112.06 624.07 97.77 449.83 702.31 47.27 85.17 Major exporters 4/ : June : 6.62 66.70 2.49 34.42 47.73 20.14 7.95 July : 6.41 67.80 2.49 34.74 47.98 20.76 7.96 Argentina Jun : 1.23 19.95 0.01 5.08 7.24 12.72 1.24 Jul : 1.23 19.95 0.01 5.08 7.24 12.72 1.24 Australia Jun : 0.73 9.91 0.00 4.93 6.39 3.03 1.22 Jul : 0.62 10.26 0.00 5.11 6.61 3.35 0.92 Canada Jun : 2.95 27.43 2.06 20.11 24.86 3.37 4.20 Jul : 2.85 28.18 2.06 20.24 24.89 3.67 4.53 Major importers 5/ : June : 32.98 159.35 70.17 163.29 223.35 7.27 31.88 July : 33.85 160.08 69.72 164.31 223.68 7.77 32.21 EU-15 Jun : 22.42 106.50 3.51 77.26 104.48 7.12 20.83 Jul : 22.44 106.65 3.51 77.60 104.73 7.62 20.26 Japan Jun : 2.06 0.25 18.74 14.21 19.04 0.00 2.02 Jul : 2.06 0.25 18.74 14.21 19.04 0.00 2.02 Mexico Jun : 2.65 25.45 12.13 21.06 37.70 0.05 2.48 Jul : 3.45 25.45 11.63 21.56 37.60 0.05 2.88 Southeast Asia Jun : 0.88 15.47 4.36 14.12 19.50 0.10 1.11 Jul : 0.88 15.85 4.16 14.30 19.68 0.10 1.11 South Korea Jun : 1.26 0.38 9.86 7.56 10.23 0.00 1.26 Jul : 1.28 0.38 9.86 7.56 10.23 0.00 1.28 Selected other : China Jun : 45.43 125.30 2.31 95.06 137.71 8.03 27.31 Jul : 45.43 125.30 2.31 95.06 137.71 8.03 27.31 East. Europe Jun : 4.19 50.43 1.60 38.61 48.78 3.37 4.07 Jul : 4.21 48.21 1.60 37.83 47.99 2.74 3.29 FSU-12 6/ Jun : 11.48 53.22 1.03 37.80 55.32 5.42 4.99 Jul : 11.78 52.52 1.22 38.30 56.07 4.57 4.89 Russia Jun : 7.04 27.70 0.80 20.35 31.95 1.51 2.08 Jul : 7.19 28.20 0.80 20.35 31.95 2.20 2.04 Ukraine Jun : 2.47 16.50 0.03 10.35 14.05 3.38 1.57 Jul : 2.62 15.30 0.22 10.85 14.80 1.84 1.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-400-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 151.61 599.01 74.28 433.66 622.18 75.99 128.44 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 148.87 201.05 48.38 40.55 Total foreign : 103.37 357.53 74.02 284.79 421.13 27.61 87.89 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.75 0.93 6.50 12.60 11.87 2.34 Argentina : 0.64 14.70 0.01 2.65 4.15 10.80 0.39 South Africa : 0.49 10.05 0.92 3.85 8.45 1.07 1.94 Major importers 5/ : 11.68 81.44 45.39 87.25 125.90 0.55 12.05 EU-15 : 3.74 39.69 2.91 32.80 42.40 0.06 3.87 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.17 20.40 4.08 8.40 23.60 0.05 2.99 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.07 3.82 13.42 18.82 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.62 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.17 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 2.05 1.02 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.67 11.97 0.20 1.06 China : 81.19 114.09 0.04 92.00 123.30 8.61 63.40 East. Europe : 1.50 26.75 1.07 20.73 24.21 3.01 2.10 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.81 0.65 5.70 7.04 0.37 1.46 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 128.44 599.02 74.03 434.26 630.64 76.08 96.82 United States : 40.55 228.80 0.38 144.79 203.46 40.64 25.63 Total foreign : 87.89 370.21 73.65 289.47 427.18 35.44 71.18 Major exporters 4/ : 2.34 24.70 0.27 5.90 12.00 13.00 2.30 Argentina : 0.39 15.50 0.02 1.80 3.30 12.00 0.61 South Africa : 1.94 9.20 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.69 Major importers 5/ : 12.05 78.91 47.11 87.79 125.86 0.47 11.75 EU-15 : 3.87 39.44 3.00 32.60 41.60 0.20 4.51 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.00 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.19 Mexico : 2.99 18.80 5.50 9.50 24.70 0.05 2.54 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.67 4.11 13.44 18.74 0.22 0.88 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 9.00 6.70 8.97 0.00 1.28 Selected other : Brazil : 1.02 43.50 0.30 32.50 36.50 4.50 3.82 Canada : 1.06 9.07 3.70 9.92 12.22 0.40 1.20 China : 63.40 121.30 0.01 93.00 126.50 13.50 44.71 East. Europe : 2.10 27.29 0.88 22.35 25.97 2.10 2.20 FSU-12 6/ : 1.46 8.42 0.23 6.32 7.69 0.89 1.53 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.00 0.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-400-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 95.75 621.73 74.76 432.90 634.17 75.54 83.31 July : 96.82 625.61 74.81 433.63 636.92 74.99 85.51 United States : June : 27.54 255.54 0.25 142.25 202.57 46.99 33.76 July : 25.63 260.87 0.25 142.25 205.75 46.99 34.01 Total foreign : June : 68.21 366.19 74.51 290.65 431.59 28.55 49.55 July : 71.18 364.75 74.56 291.38 431.17 28.00 51.50 Major exporters 4/ : June : 2.30 25.00 0.26 6.60 12.70 13.00 1.86 July : 2.30 25.00 0.26 6.60 12.70 13.00 1.86 Argentina Jun : 0.61 16.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 12.00 0.62 Jul : 0.61 16.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 12.00 0.62 South Africa Jun : 1.69 9.00 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.24 Jul : 1.69 9.00 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.24 Major importers 5/ : June : 10.91 80.29 48.86 87.68 127.87 0.35 11.84 July : 11.75 80.59 48.16 88.28 127.87 0.35 12.28 EU-15 Jun : 4.51 40.00 3.00 32.00 42.20 0.20 5.11 Jul : 4.51 40.00 3.00 32.00 42.20 0.20 5.11 Japan Jun : 1.19 0.00 15.50 11.00 15.50 0.00 1.20 Jul : 1.19 0.00 15.50 11.00 15.50 0.00 1.20 Mexico Jun : 1.74 19.00 7.00 10.00 25.80 0.05 1.89 Jul : 2.54 19.00 6.50 10.50 25.70 0.05 2.29 Southeast Asia Jun : 0.88 15.27 4.36 13.93 19.30 0.10 1.11 Jul : 0.88 15.57 4.16 14.03 19.40 0.10 1.11 South Korea Jun : 1.26 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.26 Jul : 1.28 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.28 Selected other : Brazil Jun : 2.32 37.50 0.30 33.00 37.00 2.00 1.12 Jul : 3.82 37.50 0.30 33.00 37.00 2.00 2.62 Canada Jun : 1.20 9.50 2.00 8.60 11.20 0.30 1.20 Jul : 1.20 9.20 2.00 8.60 11.10 0.30 1.00 China Jun : 44.71 118.00 0.10 93.00 128.10 8.00 26.71 Jul : 44.71 118.00 0.10 93.00 128.10 8.00 26.71 East. Europe Jun : 2.20 29.04 0.78 22.56 26.28 3.00 2.75 Jul : 2.20 27.24 0.78 22.06 25.78 2.43 2.02 FSU-12 6/ Jun : 1.38 9.25 0.70 7.40 8.87 1.33 1.13 Jul : 1.53 9.25 0.70 7.40 8.87 1.33 1.28 Russia Jun : 0.13 1.20 0.60 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.13 Jul : 0.13 1.20 0.60 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-400-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 3/ : 148.03 398.61 25.75 410.26 27.03 136.37 United States : 0.89 6.74 0.42 3.87 2.96 1.22 Total foreign : 147.14 391.87 25.33 406.40 24.07 135.15 Major exporters 4/ : 28.34 135.50 0.06 117.17 18.42 28.31 India : 25.05 93.08 0.00 87.35 6.30 24.48 Pakistan : 0.48 3.88 0.00 2.65 1.63 0.09 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.25 2.40 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.25 1.34 Major importers 5/ : 12.85 54.36 12.23 65.70 0.42 13.32 Brazil : 1.17 7.12 0.63 8.08 0.03 0.82 EU-15 : 0.89 1.62 0.92 2.22 0.34 0.88 Indonesia : 4.61 33.09 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.84 Nigeria : 1.02 2.10 1.91 3.55 0.00 1.48 Philippines : 2.80 8.45 1.20 8.90 0.00 3.55 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 2.13 1.40 3.20 5.18 0.06 1.50 Selected other : Burma : 1.38 10.44 0.00 9.90 1.00 0.92 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.07 0.09 0.38 0.44 0.00 0.10 China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Egypt : 0.89 3.58 0.03 3.15 0.47 0.86 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.66 9.00 0.05 1.52 Mexico : 0.16 0.19 0.54 0.68 0.00 0.20 South Korea : 1.74 5.52 0.12 5.10 0.13 2.14 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 3/ : 136.37 381.40 25.88 411.15 27.32 106.63 United States : 1.22 6.51 0.46 3.85 3.70 0.64 Total foreign : 135.15 374.90 25.42 407.30 23.62 105.99 Major exporters 4/ : 28.31 119.44 0.04 114.03 17.25 16.51 India : 24.48 77.00 0.00 83.89 4.25 13.34 Pakistan : 0.09 4.23 0.00 2.67 1.50 0.15 Thailand : 2.40 17.12 0.00 9.92 7.50 2.10 Vietnam : 1.34 21.09 0.04 17.55 4.00 0.92 Major importers 5/ : 13.32 55.14 12.12 67.31 0.57 12.69 Brazil : 0.82 7.25 1.10 8.10 0.03 1.04 EU-15 : 0.88 1.71 0.89 2.23 0.49 0.76 Indonesia : 4.84 33.20 3.50 36.79 0.00 4.75 Nigeria : 1.48 2.20 1.82 3.85 0.00 1.65 Philippines : 3.55 8.45 1.00 9.55 0.00 3.45 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 1.50 1.88 2.79 5.30 0.06 0.81 Selected other : Burma : 0.92 10.44 0.00 10.10 0.50 0.76 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China : 82.17 122.18 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.60 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.60 0.74 Japan : 1.52 8.09 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.13 Mexico : 0.20 0.10 0.48 0.70 0.00 0.08 South Korea : 2.14 4.93 0.15 5.20 0.67 1.34 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-400-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 108.36 393.73 25.00 410.00 25.50 92.08 July : 106.63 394.08 25.13 412.17 25.38 88.55 United States : June : 0.71 6.23 0.46 3.94 2.75 0.71 July : 0.64 6.10 0.48 3.95 2.72 0.55 Total foreign : June : 107.64 387.50 24.54 406.06 22.75 91.38 July : 105.99 387.98 24.66 408.22 22.66 88.00 Major exporters 4/Jul: 16.51 134.30 0.04 115.70 16.80 18.35 India Jul: 13.34 91.00 0.00 85.25 3.25 15.84 Pakistan Jul: 0.15 4.50 0.00 2.75 1.55 0.35 Thailand Jul: 2.10 17.80 0.00 10.00 8.00 1.90 Vietnam Jul: 0.92 21.00 0.04 17.70 4.00 0.26 Major importers 5/Jul: 12.69 54.88 11.78 67.88 0.51 10.96 Brazil Jul: 1.04 7.00 0.75 8.13 0.00 0.67 EU-15 Jul: 0.76 1.63 0.90 2.23 0.45 0.61 Indonesia Jul: 4.75 33.30 3.50 36.95 0.00 4.60 Nigeria Jul: 1.65 2.30 1.25 4.00 0.00 1.20 Philippines Jul: 3.45 8.60 0.80 9.70 0.00 3.15 Sel. Mideast 6/ Jul: 0.81 1.60 3.55 5.35 0.06 0.55 Selected other : Burma Jul: 0.76 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.50 C. Am. & Car. 7/Jul: 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China Jul: 67.60 120.00 0.30 135.00 2.50 50.40 Egypt Jul: 0.74 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.64 Japan Jul: 1.13 8.00 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.97 Mexico Jul: 0.08 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.09 South Korea Jul: 1.34 5.00 0.20 5.28 0.00 1.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-400-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World : 42.70 98.46 29.66 94.45 29.05 0.11 47.20 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.70 11.00 0.18 7.45 Total foreign : 36.70 78.16 29.64 86.76 18.05 -0.07 39.76 Major exporters 4/ : 8.78 27.63 1.40 12.67 14.14 -0.09 11.09 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.02 4.15 0.27 0.94 3.78 -0.14 2.88 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Major importers : 26.15 47.45 23.44 67.68 2.64 0.02 26.69 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.80 0.67 -0.15 2.42 India : 3.77 12.30 1.95 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.69 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 2.07 2.20 0.09 0.03 0.72 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.00 0.34 0.00 12.86 Europe : 1.58 2.62 4.37 5.38 1.30 0.07 1.82 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.85 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.84 0.21 9.63 9.03 0.05 0.08 2.52 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 Thailand : 0.39 0.10 2.10 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.66 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World : 47.20 87.72 30.18 97.83 30.21 0.10 36.96 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.06 7.30 11.60 0.02 5.80 Total foreign : 39.76 70.51 30.12 90.53 18.61 0.09 31.16 Major exporters 4/ : 11.09 23.76 1.46 13.98 14.03 0.01 8.28 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.20 0.25 0.03 2.44 Central Asia 5/ : 1.94 6.83 3/ 1.87 5.23 0.00 1.67 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 3.98 3/ 0.21 3.76 0.05 1.44 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.88 2.44 0.53 1.15 3.05 -0.08 1.72 Australia : 2.21 1.40 3/ 0.13 2.50 -0.10 1.09 Major importers : 26.69 43.68 23.82 70.11 3.12 0.07 20.89 Brazil : 2.42 3.80 0.65 3.50 0.55 -0.10 2.92 India : 4.69 10.60 1.40 13.40 0.05 0.00 3.24 Mexico : 0.72 0.19 2.20 2.25 0.05 0.03 0.79 China : 12.86 22.60 2.60 28.70 0.75 0.00 8.61 Europe : 1.82 2.19 4.21 5.17 1.54 0.07 1.44 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.13 2.10 6.30 0.13 0.00 1.26 Selected Asia 8/ : 2.52 0.16 8.96 9.09 0.05 0.08 2.42 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.38 Thailand : 0.66 0.07 1.95 2.00 0.01 0.03 0.65 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-400-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World : June : 36.34 95.50 31.00 99.00 30.70 0.00 33.14 July : 36.96 94.84 30.27 99.14 29.98 -0.01 32.96 United States : June : 5.90 17.20 0.05 7.20 11.50 -0.05 4.50 July : 5.80 16.60 0.05 6.80 11.80 -0.05 3.90 Total foreign : June : 30.44 78.30 30.95 91.80 19.20 0.05 28.64 July : 31.16 78.24 30.22 92.34 18.18 0.04 29.06 Major exporters 4/ : July : 8.28 25.16 1.78 14.20 13.43 -0.04 7.63 Pakistan Jul : 2.44 8.50 0.90 9.40 0.10 0.03 2.31 Central Asia 5/Jul : 1.67 6.67 0.01 1.88 5.02 0.00 1.46 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jul : 1.44 4.29 3/ 0.20 4.29 0.00 1.24 S. Hemis 7/ Jul : 1.72 3.10 0.38 1.16 2.38 -0.08 1.73 Australia Jul : 1.09 1.50 3/ 0.12 1.60 -0.10 0.97 Major importers Jul : 20.89 49.79 23.59 71.64 3.09 0.07 19.47 Brazil Jul : 2.92 4.25 0.30 3.70 1.00 -0.10 2.87 India Jul : 3.24 11.70 1.80 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.09 Mexico Jul : 0.79 0.30 1.85 2.25 0.07 0.03 0.60 China Jul : 8.61 27.00 2.60 29.70 0.25 0.00 8.26 Europe Jul : 1.44 2.17 4.06 4.97 1.46 0.07 1.18 Russia Jul : 0.22 3/ 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Jul : 1.26 4.20 2.35 6.45 0.20 0.00 1.16 Sel. Asia 8/ Jul : 2.42 0.17 8.93 9.28 0.06 0.08 2.10 Indonesia Jul : 0.38 0.04 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.34 Thailand Jul : 0.65 0.07 1.90 2.10 0.01 0.03 0.49 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-400-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 30.58 184.42 54.35 158.02 183.97 53.37 32.02 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.87 28.95 5.66 Total foreign : 23.84 105.75 54.29 111.76 133.10 24.42 26.36 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.40 46.41 49.96 23.12 21.25 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.01 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.78 18.12 42.29 48.65 62.54 0.39 4.26 China : 4.91 15.41 10.39 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 EU-15 : 0.85 1.23 18.30 17.34 19.23 0.06 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.89 5.21 0.00 0.67 Mexico : 0.18 0.07 4.51 4.61 4.66 0.00 0.10 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 32.02 195.82 62.08 166.34 192.34 62.70 34.88 United States : 5.66 74.29 0.11 43.82 47.81 28.03 4.22 Total foreign : 26.36 121.53 61.97 122.52 144.53 34.67 30.66 Major exporters 3/ : 21.25 91.90 1.50 53.43 57.45 33.03 24.17 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 24.36 25.69 9.30 11.08 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.10 28.07 30.66 20.93 13.07 Major importers 4/ : 4.26 18.72 50.10 53.09 67.21 0.36 5.51 China : 2.10 16.51 18.20 24.76 32.94 0.27 3.60 EU-15 : 1.08 0.81 17.40 16.68 18.41 0.06 0.81 Japan : 0.67 0.28 5.15 4.08 5.40 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.85 4.90 4.95 0.00 0.10 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 34.88 207.53 64.10 175.08 202.96 63.76 39.80 United States : July : 4.22 78.52 0.11 44.23 48.84 26.94 7.07 Total foreign : July : 30.66 129.02 63.99 130.85 154.12 36.81 32.73 Major exporters 3/ : July : 24.17 97.25 1.50 56.88 61.27 34.94 26.71 Argentina Jul : 11.08 37.00 0.40 25.40 26.84 9.90 11.74 Brazil Jul : 13.07 56.00 1.10 30.38 33.22 22.01 14.95 Major importers 4/ : July : 5.51 18.78 51.64 56.17 70.79 0.39 4.73 China Jul : 3.60 16.60 18.50 27.10 35.66 0.30 2.74 EU-15 Jul : 0.81 0.85 18.30 17.34 19.05 0.06 0.85 Japan Jul : 0.71 0.29 5.05 4.01 5.34 0.00 0.71 Mexico Jul : 0.10 0.09 5.00 5.02 5.07 0.00 0.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-400-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 3.75 125.32 43.65 126.41 42.27 4.04 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.00 6.81 0.22 Total foreign : 3.41 88.76 43.52 96.41 35.46 3.82 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.67 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.99 Argentina : 0.10 16.50 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.14 32.37 27.63 56.38 3.34 1.42 EU-15 : 0.62 13.91 19.54 30.92 2.27 0.87 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.04 131.54 45.04 131.97 44.56 4.09 United States : 0.22 34.40 0.22 29.17 5.44 0.23 Total foreign : 3.82 97.14 44.82 102.80 39.12 3.86 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 44.16 0.35 10.10 34.20 1.20 Argentina : 0.30 19.26 0.00 0.26 18.90 0.40 Brazil : 0.65 22.17 0.35 8.30 14.10 0.76 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.54 1.20 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.42 35.32 27.57 60.20 2.98 1.13 EU-15 : 0.87 13.42 19.25 30.64 2.26 0.63 China : 0.00 19.63 0.03 18.96 0.70 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 4.09 138.55 47.26 137.89 47.42 4.59 United States : July : 0.23 35.04 0.16 29.76 5.44 0.23 Total foreign : July : 3.86 103.51 47.10 108.13 41.97 4.37 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.20 47.75 0.36 10.98 36.83 1.50 Argentina Jul : 0.40 20.09 0.00 0.27 19.73 0.49 Brazil Jul : 0.76 23.99 0.36 8.80 15.40 0.91 India Jul : 0.04 3.67 0.00 1.91 1.70 0.10 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.13 37.53 28.69 63.02 3.10 1.23 EU-15 Jul : 0.63 13.78 19.66 31.21 2.18 0.68 China Jul : 0.00 21.49 0.00 20.59 0.90 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-400-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 2.59 28.83 8.32 28.77 8.59 2.38 United States : 1.31 8.57 0.02 7.69 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.29 20.25 8.30 21.08 7.45 1.31 Major exporters 3/ : 0.47 11.70 0.17 5.24 6.60 0.50 Argentina : 0.10 3.88 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.13 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.18 3.11 0.02 2.02 1.10 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.46 2.00 6.47 0.06 0.22 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 India : 0.00 0.84 1.55 2.38 0.00 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.38 30.52 9.77 31.03 9.69 1.96 United States : 1.07 8.32 0.03 7.76 1.00 0.66 Total foreign : 1.31 22.20 9.75 23.27 8.69 1.30 Major exporters 3/ : 0.50 12.89 0.17 5.28 7.84 0.45 Argentina : 0.13 4.53 0.00 0.13 4.45 0.09 Brazil : 0.18 5.36 0.13 3.15 2.36 0.16 EU-15 : 0.20 3.00 0.04 2.01 1.03 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.22 5.00 3.40 8.16 0.06 0.41 China : 0.21 4.35 1.30 5.41 0.05 0.40 India : 0.00 0.62 2.00 2.61 0.01 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 1.96 31.99 9.63 32.02 9.64 1.92 United States : July : 0.66 8.31 0.03 7.89 0.50 0.61 Total foreign : July : 1.30 23.68 9.60 24.12 9.14 1.31 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.45 13.64 0.19 5.54 8.25 0.49 Argentina Jul : 0.09 4.72 0.00 0.13 4.58 0.10 Brazil Jul : 0.16 5.80 0.15 3.30 2.63 0.18 EU-15 Jul : 0.20 3.11 0.04 2.11 1.04 0.21 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.41 5.62 2.86 8.42 0.05 0.41 China Jul : 0.40 4.75 1.15 5.85 0.05 0.40 India Jul : 0.00 0.84 1.60 2.44 0.00 0.00 Pakistan Jul : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-400-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2002 : III : 7097 4832 12030 8251 1412 9807 21837 1821 41.8 IV : 6783 5255 12148 7936 1482 9552 21700 1835 41.6 Annual : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7221 169.8 : 2003 : I : 6287 4889 11275 7770 1379 9275 20550 1776 42.9 II : 6910 4750 11757 8275 1425 9835 21592 1790 43.8 III*: 6975 4710 11780 8275 1400 9805 21585 1825 41.7 IV*: 6225 5160 11484 8100 1475 9700 21184 1850 41.9 Annual : Jun Proj : 26287 19514 46190 32220 5679 38410 84600 7241 171.2 Jul Proj : 26397 19509 46296 32420 5679 38615 84911 7241 170.4 : 2004 : I*: 6025 4850 10975 7900 1375 9405 20380 1785 43.7 II*: 6650 4700 11445 8325 1450 9915 21360 1805 44.6 Annual : Jun Proj : 25650 19300 45335 32725 5775 39030 84365 7300 172.8 Jul Proj : 25675 19450 45510 32725 5775 39030 84540 7300 172.8 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2002 : III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.33 IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.5 11.97 Annual : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.11 : 2003 : I : 77.82 35.38 60.3 61.1 77.2 11.37 II : 78.49 42.64 59.6 60.6 73.9 11.07 III*: 72-74 40-42 60-62 63-65 74-76 11.90-12.30 IV*: 73-79 38-40 58-62 68-72 77-83 12.05-12.75 Annual : Jun Proj : 76-79 38-40 59-61 64-66 75-78 11.20-11.60 Jul Proj : 75-77 39-40 59-61 63-65 75-78 11.60-11.90 : 2004 : I*: 74-80 39-43 57-61 59-63 74-80 11.10-12.10 II*: 78-84 41-45 59-63 61-67 69-75 10.35-11.35 Annual : Jun Proj : 77-84 41-44 58-63 64-69 74-80 11.15-12.15 Jul Proj : 77-83 41-44 58-63 64-69 74-80 11.15-12.15 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-400-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2002 : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.6 2003 Proj. Jun : 691 26392 3265 30348 2455 525 27368 65.7 Jul : 691 26502 3155 30348 2445 525 27378 65.7 2004 Proj. Jun : 525 25755 3425 29705 2550 600 26555 63.1 Jul : 525 25780 3425 29730 2550 600 26580 63.2 : PORK : 2002 : 536 19685 1070 21291 1611 533 19147 51.5 2003 Proj. Jun : 533 19536 1159 21228 1668 540 19020 50.6 Jul : 533 19531 1204 21268 1668 540 19060 50.7 2004 Proj. Jun : 540 19322 1200 21062 1695 540 18827 49.6 Jul : 540 19472 1255 21267 1695 540 19032 50.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2002 : 1160 47305 4450 52915 4065 1238 47612 120.9 2003 Proj. Jun : 1238 46331 4585 52154 4128 1079 46947 118.0 Jul : 1238 46437 4525 52200 4118 1079 47003 118.1 2004 Proj. Jun : 1079 45476 4792 51347 4250 1154 45943 114.3 Jul : 1079 45651 4847 51577 4250 1154 46173 114.9 : BROILERS : 2002 : 712 31895 12 32619 4807 763 27050 80.5 2003 Proj. Jun : 763 31875 12 32650 4950 700 27000 79.5 Jul : 763 32073 12 32848 4875 700 27273 80.3 2004 Proj. Jun : 700 32375 12 33087 5200 650 27237 79.4 Jul : 700 32375 12 33087 5200 650 27237 79.4 : TURKEYS : 2002 : 241 5638 1 5880 438 333 5108 17.7 2003 Proj. Jun : 333 5605 1 5939 438 350 5150 17.7 Jul : 333 5605 1 5939 428 350 5160 17.7 2004 Proj. Jun : 350 5699 1 6050 465 350 5234 17.8 Jul : 350 5699 1 6050 445 350 5254 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2002 : 960 38080 17 39057 5379 1101 32576 99.7 2003 Proj. Jun : 1101 37990 17 39109 5498 1056 32554 98.6 Jul : 1101 38193 17 39311 5413 1056 32841 99.4 2004 Proj. Jun : 1056 38604 17 39677 5775 1008 32893 98.6 Jul : 1056 38604 17 39677 5755 1008 32913 98.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2002 : 2120 85385 4467 91972 9444 2339 80188 220.5 2003 Proj. Jun : 2339 84321 4602 91263 9626 2135 79501 216.5 Jul : 2339 84630 4542 91511 9531 2135 79844 217.5 2004 Proj. Jun : 2135 84080 4809 91024 10025 2162 78836 212.9 Jul : 2135 84255 4864 91254 10005 2162 79086 213.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-400-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2003 Projected : 2004 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2001 : 2002 : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.0 12.0 Production : 7155.0 7221.0 7241.0 7241.0 7300.0 7300.0 Imports : 8.9 15.0 12.2 12.9 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7175.2 7246.4 7263.5 7264.2 7322.0 7324.0 : Use : Exports : 190.0 174.0 169.0 169.0 173.0 173.0 Hatching use : 964.2 961.3 961.2 961.2 980.0 980.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 10.3 10.0 12.0 10.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 6010.6 6100.8 6123.3 6122.0 6159.0 6159.0 Per capita (number) : 252.6 253.6 252.0 251.9 250.9 250.9 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Proj 1/: 2003/04 Proj 1/ Commodity :2000/01:2001/02:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.2 11.9 11.7 Production : 165.2 169.2 170.6 170.0 172.6 172.4 Farm use : 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 164.0 168.0 169.5 169.0 171.5 171.4 Imports 2/ : 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.3 182.0 186.0 185.4 188.4 188.1 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 169.2 170.4 172.6 172.4 177.3 177.3 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.9 11.7 9.9 9.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 6.3 9.6 8.8 8.7 5.9 6.1 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 12.29 11.03 9.75- 10.15- 9.70- 9.75- : 9.95 10.25 10.70 10.65 : Class IV : 13.88 11.22 9.90- 9.95- 9.50- 9.55- : 10.20 10.15 10.70 10.65 : All milk 5/ : 14.51 12.74 11.25- 11.60- 11.05- 11.15- : 11.45 11.70 12.05 12.05 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 0 0 40 30 40 30 Cheese : 17 9 50 50 30 30 Nonfat dry milk : 525 817 715 705 480 500 Dry whole milk : 3 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-400-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 22-year record of the differences between the July projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the July projection and the final estimate have averaged 13.9 million tons (2.6%) ranging from -34.6 to 23.7 million tons. The July projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 9 times. Reliability of July Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.6 13.9 -34.6 23.7 13 9 U.S. : 2.8 1.7 -6.2 5.4 8 14 Foreign : 2.9 13.4 -32.0 21.1 13 9 Exports : World : 4.4 5.0 -14.5 11.3 11 11 U.S. : 8.0 2.7 -10.0 7.8 12 10 Foreign : 5.2 4.4 -10.8 7.1 12 10 Domestic use : World : 1.8 9.4 -25.7 17.4 13 9 U.S. : 6.3 1.9 -5.0 3.6 10 12 Foreign : 1.7 8.4 -22.4 15.9 14 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.6 12.3 -26.0 27.0 14 8 U.S. : 13.7 3.3 -10.2 13.9 12 10 Foreign : 10.1 10.2 -25.0 13.8 14 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 2.5 20.0 -33.8 53.6 10 12 U.S. : 7.5 15.8 -32.6 57.7 9 13 Foreign : 2.0 11.9 -25.1 28.2 8 14 Exports : World : 6.0 6.3 -11.1 17.8 15 7 U.S. : 15.7 8.2 -20.9 15.0 8 14 Foreign : 13.9 7.2 -13.3 14.2 13 9 Domestic use : World : 1.5 12.2 -20.4 26.7 9 13 U.S. : 4.0 7.1 -14.5 22.2 15 7 Foreign : 1.6 10.1 -9.8 30.5 10 12 Ending stocks : World : 14.1 17.9 -60.2 41.0 12 10 U.S. : 30.9 15.2 -50.5 39.5 8 14 Foreign : 11.8 9.1 -25.4 9.9 15 7 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.5 -24.0 13.1 16 6 U.S. : 4.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 11 9 Foreign : 2.2 7.5 -24.3 13.2 16 6 Exports : World : 8.3 1.6 -6.7 0.9 15 7 U.S. : 7.8 0.2 -0.7 0.7 12 8 Foreign : 9.2 1.5 -6.5 0.7 16 6 Domestic use : World : 1.8 5.9 -22.4 22.9 14 8 U.S. : 6.8 0.2 -0.4 0.5 9 13 Foreign : 1.8 5.9 -22.9 22.8 14 8 Ending stocks : World : 11.4 4.6 -15.6 8.0 18 4 U.S. : 23.7 0.3 -0.5 1.0 11 10 Foreign : 12.4 4.7 -16.5 8.4 18 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-400-33 Reliability of July Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.7 4.5 -11.9 7.5 11 11 U.S. : 5.6 3.3 -9.8 9.7 10 12 Foreign : 6.5 4.3 -9.8 6.2 13 9 Exports : World : 6.7 2.3 -10.7 3.8 15 7 U.S. : 10.8 2.2 -6.0 6.2 13 9 Foreign : 18.7 2.1 -9.9 2.6 12 10 Domestic use : World : 3.7 4.5 -9.9 6.9 15 7 U.S. : 4.4 1.7 -4.4 4.5 14 8 Foreign : 4.2 3.7 -8.8 4.6 15 7 Ending stocks : World : 13.1 2.5 -4.7 4.9 14 8 U.S. : 40.2 2.7 -4.0 8.2 7 15 Foreign : 18.1 2.6 -9.3 3.5 15 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.0 3.3 -13.3 10.3 14 8 U.S. : 8.3 1.3 -2.8 3.6 13 9 Foreign : 4.1 2.8 -12.1 10.5 11 10 Exports : World : 4.8 1.2 -4.1 2.7 10 12 U.S. : 17.9 0.9 -2.1 2.8 14 8 Foreign : 6.5 1.2 -3.4 2.0 7 15 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.1 -7.8 3.4 10 12 U.S. : 7.5 0.6 -1.4 1.3 12 9 Foreign : 2.7 2.1 -7.1 4.0 10 12 Ending stocks : World : 14.8 5.2 -14.3 15.3 14 8 U.S. : 33.1 1.4 -3.4 2.4 10 12 Foreign : 14.6 4.4 -13.9 12.9 15 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 22 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-400-34 Reliability of United States July Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 8.3 569 -1103 2034 12 10 Exports : 17.0 305 -775 546 8 14 Domestic use : 4.4 267 -558 770 15 7 Ending stocks : 36.7 535 -1840 1343 9 13 : SORGHUM : Production : 13.5 84 -213 176 12 10 Exports : 16.8 40 -115 97 11 11 Domestic use : 14.5 57 -139 113 10 12 Ending stocks : 52.2 70 -174 157 7 15 : BARLEY : Production : 6.5 27 -87 62 7 14 Exports : 31.6 20 -92 43 15 6 Domestic use : 8.7 32 -47 87 10 12 Ending stocks : 21.1 36 -50 114 7 15 : OATS : Production : 10.8 29 -39 144 4 17 Exports : 73.2 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 6.2 22 -39 67 8 14 Ending stocks : 14.2 18 -33 68 9 13 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.5 1347 -3271 4432 15 7 Exports : 13.3 876 -2450 1764 10 12 Domestic use : 4.4 989 -1550 4470 12 10 Ending stocks : 31.4 75 -204 413 8 13 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.2 586 -1753 1553 14 8 Exports : 24.0 381 -1550 1219 12 9 Domestic use : 3.0 370 -985 758 15 7 Ending stocks : 37.2 528 -1123 1568 9 13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.3 305 -258 694 15 6 Pork : 0.9 143 -277 400 11 10 Broilers : 0.8 169 -301 469 13 8 Turkeys : 1.3 49 -134 101 15 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.8 46 -48 115 14 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.5 0.8 -2.7 2.1 10 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 22 for crops and 21 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2002 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 2001/02 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------------ End of file --------------------