ISSN:1554-9089 WASDE-438 September 12, 2006 WHEAT: The 2006/07 U.S. wheat balance sheet is little changed from last month. Food use is raised 5 million bushels for 2006/07 in line with the 2005/06 revision based on the most recent mill grind estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Census. Ending stocks for 2006/07 are projected lower at 429 million bushels. The projected price range is tightened 5 cents on both ends to $3.95 to $4.45 per bushel. Global 2006/07 wheat production and ending stocks are lowered again this month while consumption and trade are projected higher. Global production is projected at 596.1 million tons, down 1.9 million tons from last month. Lower projected output for Australia more than offsets increased production in Canada. Small declines are also projected for Argentina, EU-25, and FSU-12. Global consumption is projected 0.5 million tons higher this month with the largest increase for India. India is projected to import 6 million tons of wheat in 2006/07, up 1.5 million from last month. Lower exports for Australia and Argentina are more than offset by higher exports for Canada and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are projected at 126.4 million tons, down 2 million from last month. COARSE GRAINS: U.S. corn production for 2006/07 is forecast at 11.1 billion bushels this month, up 138 million based on higher yields, which more than offset a small reduction in harvested area. The forecast 154.7 bushel-per- acre yield would be the second highest ever and production would be the second highest. Beginning stocks are lowered 50 million bushels reflecting stronger fourth-quarter exports during the 2005/06 marketing year. Total corn supplies for 2006/07 are projected at 13.1 billion bushels, 102 million bushels below last year's record. Total use is raised to 11.9 billion bushels, 690 million higher than the 2005/06 record. Exports for 2006/07 are raised 100 million bushels reflecting reduced supplies of coarse grains and feed-quality wheat outside the United States. U.S. ending stocks are lowered to 1.2 billion bushels, down 12 million. The 2006/07 marketing year average price is unchanged from last month at $2.15 to $2.55 per bushel. U.S. sorghum production for 2006/07 is forecast at 305 million bushels this month, up 8 million bushels on higher forecast yields, particularly in Kansas and Nebraska. Sorghum food and residual use and ending stocks are both raised slightly this month. The projected price range is unchanged at $1.95 to 2.35 per bushel. Global 2006/07 coarse grain production is lowered to 969.4 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month. Higher production in the United States is more than offset by lower corn production in EU-25 and FSU-12, lower barley and oats production in EU-25, Canada, and Australia, and lower rye production in EU-25. Summer heat and dryness across Europe followed by heavy harvest-season rains adversely affected crops in EU-25 and FSU-12. Barley and oats production in Canada is lowered on reduced area and yields. Drought in Australia has reduced yield prospects for feed grains there. With lower beginning stocks and higher consumption, world coarse grain ending stocks are lowered 1.7 million tons to 125.8 million tons. RICE: Note: The market impact of genetically engineered rice found in U.S. long-grain supplies is considered in this report. U.S. rice production in 2006/07 is forecast at 193.3 million cwt, 4 million cwt below last month due entirely to a reduction in area. Harvested area is estimated at 2.8 million acres, 72,000 acres below last month. The average yield is estimated at 6,846 pounds per acre, up 33 pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is estimated at 143.6 million cwt, down 4.3 million from last month. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 49.6 million cwt, up 0.3 million cwt from a month ago. All- rice beginning stocks are raised 8.6 million cwt from last month. Domestic and residual use is lowered 4.5 million cwt from a month ago based in part on the decline in 2005/06. Rice exports for 2006/07 are projected at 97 million cwt, unchanged from a month earlier. Compared with last month, forecast exports to some markets are reduced while exports to others are increased. The ending stocks are projected at 31.9 million cwt, 9.2 million cwt above last month. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.50 per cwt on each end to $8.75 to $9.25 per cwt compared to $7.62 per cwt in 2005/06. On August 30 the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimated August 1 U.S. rice stocks at 43 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 8.6 million cwt above last month's projection, and 5.30 million cwt above a year earlier. NASS estimated rough rice stocks at 37.4 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 3.9 million cwt. Global 2006/07 rice supply and use are little changed from a month ago. Ending stocks are projected at 79.4 million tons, 0.4 million above last month, but down 1 million tons from 2005/06. The increase in ending stocks from a month ago is due mainly to larger U.S. stocks. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2006/07 are projected at 15.7 million tons, up 2.1 million tons from last month as larger supplies more than offset increased use. Soybean production is forecast at 3.1 billion bushels, up 165 million bushels from last month based on higher yield prospects, especially in the western Corn Belt. Other oilseed production changes include reductions for peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean export prospects are raised 35 million bushels based on increased supplies, lower prices, and increased import demand for China. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels based on improved soybean meal export prospects, especially to Mexico. Ending stocks are projected at 530 million bushels, up 80 million from last month. For 2005/06, strong foreign demand for soybeans and soybean meal raises exports and crush and lowers ending stocks. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2006/07 are projected at $4.90 to $5.90 per bushel, down 10 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $147.50 to $177.50 per short ton, down $7.50 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at 23 to 27 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2006/07 is projected at 386.5 million tons, up 3.3 million tons from last month. U.S. oilseed production is forecast at 93.6 million tons, up 4.4 million from last month. Foreign production is down 1.1 million tons to 292.9 million, unchanged from last year. Most of the change in foreign production is due to reduced peanut production for India, where sown area was reduced mainly by the effects of excessive early-season moisture. Soybean production is reduced for China based on lower yield prospects. Lower cottonseed production for India, Pakistan, Australia, and Brazil is partly offset by an increase for China. Other foreign changes include increased rapeseed production for EU-25, partly offset by a reduction for Canada, based on recent government survey results. Sunflowerseed production is raised for Romania, Bulgaria, and China and reduced for Russia. SUGAR: Projected 2006/07 U.S. sugar supply is increased 147,000 tons, raw value, from last month, due to higher beginning stocks and production. Production is increased 100,000 tons based on processor estimates compiled by the Farm Service Agency (FSA). Sugar use is unchanged. For 2005/06, total supply is increased 47,000 tons. Production is increased 72,000 tons based on processor estimates compiled by FSA. Imports of high-tier sugar are reduced 25,000 tons based on U.S. Customs reporting. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast total U.S. meat production is reduced for 2006 but raised for 2007. This primarily reflects reduced beef production due to the slow pace of fed cattle marketings during 2006. However, marketings are expected to increase in 2007, leading to higher forecast beef production next year. Pork production forecasts are unchanged from last month as higher expected slaughter in the third quarter of 2006 is offset by slightly lower expected weights due to summer heat. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are unchanged from last month. Beef export forecasts for 2006 and 2007 are raised from last month. Exports to Canada and Mexico are expected to remain strong and the recent announcement to permit the export of boneless beef to South Korea is expected to support a modestly stronger export forecast, especially for 2007. However, the pace of recovery in exports to South Korea is expected to be gradual. Export forecasts for pork and poultry are unchanged from last month. The cattle price forecast for 2006 is raised from last month as the slower pace of fed cattle marketings is supporting prices at higher than expected levels. Prices for 2007 are unchanged this month. However, larger cattle marketings in 2007 are expected to result in lower prices year-to-year. Price forecasts for hogs and broilers are raised slightly for 2006. Continued relatively strong demand for pork and broiler meat plus moderate growth in broiler production are expected to help support prices. The milk production forecast for 2006 is raised from last month primarily due to a smaller-than-expected impact from hot weather on milk per cow. Milk production for 2007 is raised slightly. Despite higher forecast production, relatively strong demand for cheese is helping support prices. However, butter supplies are relatively large and prices are weaker than previously expected. Nonfat dry milk price forecasts are little changed from last month although CCC net removals for 2006 and 2007 are forecast lower. In the face of higher forecast cheese prices, the 2006 Class III price is raised, but lower-than-expected butter prices result in a lower Class IV price forecast. The all milk price forecast for 2006 is increased to $12.65 to $12.85 per cwt. Price forecasts for 2007 are unchanged from last month. COTTON: This month's U.S. cotton forecasts for 2006/07 include marginally lower production and ending stocks. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Lower world beginning stocks and production, combined with increased consumption, reduce this month's forecast of 2006/07 ending stocks. World production is reduced from last month as lower crops in Pakistan, Brazil, Australia, Mali, and others are partially offset by increases for China and Turkey. World consumption is raised 550,000 bales, due mainly to an increase for India that is based on revised government estimates of mill consumption. The revisions for India affect both 2005/06 and 2006/07 and reduce India's estimated 2006/07 ending stocks by 14 percent. Forecast world trade is reduced slightly as a reduction in import demand by China is partially offset by increases for Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. World stocks are reduced 3 percent from last month. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. APPROVED BY: CHARLES F.CONNER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. 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WASDE-438-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2004/05 : 2,043.34 2,401.18 240.99 1,993.64 407.54 2005/06 (Est.) : 2,008.01 2,415.56 245.99 2,021.96 393.60 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 1,985.70 2,378.86 241.22 2,044.01 334.85 September : 1,983.20 2,376.80 243.53 2,045.23 331.56 Wheat : 2004/05 : 628.84 761.57 110.97 610.13 151.45 2005/06 (Est.) : 618.35 769.79 115.02 623.73 146.07 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 598.00 743.69 110.11 615.27 128.42 September : 596.10 742.16 110.71 615.79 126.38 Coarse grains 4/ : 2004/05 : 1,014.01 1,153.73 101.64 975.63 178.10 2005/06 (Est.) : 973.87 1,151.97 102.89 984.84 167.12 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 969.89 1,137.50 103.07 1,010.04 127.46 September : 969.42 1,136.54 104.79 1,010.75 125.80 Rice, milled : 2004/05 : 400.49 485.88 28.38 407.88 78.00 2005/06 (Est.) : 415.80 493.80 28.09 413.39 80.41 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 417.81 497.66 28.04 418.69 78.97 September : 417.69 498.09 28.04 418.70 79.39 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2004/05 : 385.62 434.59 83.91 275.97 74.71 2005/06 (Est.) : 363.12 442.72 91.38 279.00 72.34 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 347.34 426.63 86.85 292.00 47.79 September : 350.93 429.22 89.39 292.12 47.72 Wheat : 2004/05 : 58.74 75.53 29.01 31.82 14.70 2005/06 (Est.) : 57.28 74.20 27.47 31.28 15.45 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 49.03 67.34 24.49 31.03 11.82 September : 49.03 67.34 24.49 31.16 11.68 Coarse grains 4/ : 2004/05 : 319.42 350.42 51.41 240.22 58.80 2005/06 (Est.) : 298.74 359.66 60.18 243.96 55.52 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 292.05 351.38 59.27 256.86 35.25 September : 295.77 353.82 61.81 256.98 35.03 Rice, milled : 2004/05 : 7.46 8.64 3.50 3.94 1.21 2005/06 (Est.) : 7.11 8.86 3.73 3.76 1.37 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 6.26 7.91 3.08 4.11 0.72 September : 6.14 8.06 3.08 3.97 1.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-438-9 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2004/05 : 1,657.72 1,966.59 157.08 1,717.66 332.83 2005/06 (Est.) : 1,644.89 1,972.84 154.62 1,742.96 321.25 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 1,638.36 1,952.23 154.37 1,752.01 287.06 September : 1,632.27 1,947.57 154.15 1,753.12 283.84 Wheat : 2004/05 : 570.11 686.04 81.96 578.30 136.75 2005/06 (Est.) : 561.07 695.59 87.55 592.45 130.61 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 548.98 676.36 85.61 584.25 116.60 September : 547.07 674.83 86.22 584.63 114.70 Coarse grains 5/ : 2004/05 : 694.59 803.31 50.23 735.41 119.30 2005/06 (Est.) : 675.13 792.31 42.70 740.88 111.61 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 677.84 786.12 43.80 753.18 92.21 September : 673.65 782.72 42.98 753.76 90.77 Rice, milled : 2004/05 : 393.02 477.24 24.88 403.95 76.79 2005/06 (Est.) : 408.69 484.94 24.36 409.63 79.04 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 411.54 489.75 24.96 414.58 78.25 September : 411.55 490.03 24.96 414.73 78.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2004/05 : 120.33 163.39 35.00 108.82 54.03 2005/06 (Est.) : 114.15 168.18 44.18 117.37 52.18 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 115.59 168.08 43.35 121.69 48.29 September : 114.94 167.12 43.10 122.24 46.73 : United States 2004/05 : 23.25 26.73 14.44 6.69 5.50 2005/06 (Est.) : 23.89 29.42 17.55 5.90 5.95 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 20.43 26.36 16.20 5.50 4.70 September : 20.35 26.33 16.20 5.50 4.60 : Foreign 3/ 2004/05 : 97.08 136.66 20.56 102.13 48.53 2005/06 (Est.) : 90.26 138.76 26.63 111.47 46.23 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 95.16 141.72 27.15 116.19 43.59 September : 94.60 140.79 26.90 116.74 42.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-438-10 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2004/05 : 381.27 425.22 74.60 302.05 56.29 2005/06 (Est.) : 389.00 445.29 77.52 317.89 60.75 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 383.15 445.14 81.24 324.62 55.83 September : 386.49 447.25 82.19 324.60 58.21 Oilmeals : 2004/05 : 205.96 212.93 60.09 203.86 8.22 2005/06 (Est.) : 215.47 223.69 65.16 214.76 7.66 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 221.13 228.77 66.14 221.43 6.55 September : 221.86 229.52 66.34 222.41 6.58 Vegetable Oils : 2004/05 : 111.20 119.38 42.31 108.71 9.31 2005/06 (Est.) : 116.95 126.26 44.90 115.30 9.64 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 120.33 129.48 46.40 120.74 7.84 September : 120.53 130.17 46.92 120.96 8.20 : : United States Oilseeds : 2004/05 : 95.94 100.77 30.71 50.17 8.29 2005/06 (Est.) : 96.14 105.11 26.71 51.91 15.19 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 89.18 105.98 30.55 51.95 13.51 September : 93.63 109.70 31.49 52.37 15.65 Oilmeals : 2004/05 : 39.27 41.09 6.94 33.94 0.22 2005/06 (Est.) : 39.76 41.67 7.29 34.05 0.33 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 40.26 42.23 7.30 34.66 0.28 September : 40.58 42.61 7.61 34.67 0.33 Vegetable Oils : 2004/05 : 9.76 12.39 0.84 10.45 1.09 2005/06 (Est.) : 10.38 13.82 0.83 11.26 1.74 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 10.07 14.15 0.84 11.90 1.41 September : 10.16 14.30 0.86 11.91 1.53 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2004/05 : 285.34 324.45 43.90 251.89 48.00 2005/06 (Est.) : 292.86 340.18 50.81 265.98 45.56 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 293.98 339.16 50.69 272.67 42.32 September : 292.87 337.55 50.70 272.23 42.56 Oilmeals : 2004/05 : 166.69 171.83 53.15 169.93 8.01 2005/06 (Est.) : 175.71 182.02 57.87 180.71 7.33 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 180.88 186.53 58.85 186.78 6.27 September : 181.28 186.91 58.73 187.74 6.25 Vegetable Oils : 2004/05 : 101.44 107.00 41.47 98.26 8.22 2005/06 (Est.) : 106.58 112.44 44.07 104.04 7.90 2006/07 (Proj.) : August : 110.26 115.33 45.56 108.84 6.43 September : 110.37 115.86 46.06 109.04 6.68 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-438-11 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.7 57.2 57.9 57.9 Harvested : 50.0 50.1 47.1 47.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 43.2 42.0 38.3 38.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 546 540 568 568 Production : 2,158 2,105 1,801 1,801 Imports : 71 82 105 105 Supply, total : 2,775 2,727 2,474 2,474 Food : 910 915 915 920 Seed : 78 78 80 80 Feed and residual : 182 157 145 145 Domestic, total : 1,169 1,149 1,140 1,145 Exports : 1,066 1,009 900 900 Use, total : 2,235 2,159 2,040 2,045 Ending stocks : 540 568 434 429 CCC inventory : 54 43 35 Free stocks : 486 525 394 Outstanding loans : 58 42 30 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.42 3.90- 4.50 3.95- 4.45 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2005/06 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 193 159 88 62 38 540 Production : 930 467 309 298 101 2,105 Supply, total 3/ : 1,123 638 424 371 171 2,727 Domestic use : 481 226 241 118 84 1,149 Exports : 430 282 76 175 47 1,009 Use, total : 911 507 318 293 130 2,159 Ending stocks, total : 212 131 106 78 40 568 : 2006/07 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 212 131 106 78 40 568 Production : 660 423 380 284 55 1,801 Supply, total 3/ : 873 598 506 372 125 2,474 Domestic use : 453 222 274 117 79 1,145 Exports : 300 265 120 190 25 900 Use, total : 753 487 394 307 104 2,045 Ending stocks, total : September : 120 111 112 65 21 429 August : 123 113 112 65 21 434 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-438-12 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 97.0 96.3 93.5 93.5 Harvested : 86.0 85.9 82.3 82.1 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.71 3.47 3.55 3.60 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 28.7 58.8 56.8 55.5 Production : 319.2 298.5 291.9 295.6 Imports : 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.4 Supply, total : 350.1 359.3 351.1 353.5 Feed and residual : 165.8 162.2 160.8 160.9 Food, seed & industrial : 74.1 81.5 95.8 95.8 Domestic, total : 239.9 243.6 256.6 256.7 Exports : 51.4 60.2 59.3 61.8 Use, total : 291.3 303.8 315.8 318.5 Ending stocks, total : 58.8 55.5 35.2 35.0 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 58.8 55.5 35.0 Outstanding loans : 7.2 4.4 0.0 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 80.9 81.8 79.4 79.4 Harvested : 73.6 75.1 72.1 71.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 160.4 147.9 152.2 154.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 958 2,114 2,062 2,012 Production : 11,807 11,112 10,976 11,114 Imports : 11 11 10 10 Supply, total : 12,776 13,237 13,047 13,135 Feed and residual : 6,158 6,100 6,125 6,125 Food, seed & industrial : 2,686 2,975 3,540 3,540 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,323 1,600 2,150 2,150 Domestic, total : 8,844 9,075 9,665 9,665 Exports : 1,818 2,150 2,150 2,250 Use, total : 10,662 11,225 11,815 11,915 Ending stocks, total : 2,114 2,012 1,232 1,220 CCC inventory : 1 1 0 Free stocks : 2,113 2,011 1,220 Outstanding loans : 280 171 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.06 1.99 2.15- 2.55 2.15- 2.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-438-13 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.5 5.7 5.3 5.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.6 68.7 55.8 57.3 Beginning stocks : 34 57 51 51 Production : 454 394 296 305 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 487 451 347 355 Feed and residual : 191 150 85 90 Food, seed & industrial : 55 55 55 55 Total domestic : 246 205 140 145 Exports : 184 195 165 165 Use, total : 430 400 305 310 Ending stocks, total : 57 51 42 45 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.79 1.85 1.95- 2.35 1.95- 2.35 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.3 3.0 3.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.6 64.8 61.2 61.2 Beginning stocks : 120 128 108 108 Production : 280 212 183 183 Imports : 12 5 20 20 Supply, total : 412 346 311 311 Feed and residual : 103 53 40 40 Food, seed & industrial : 157 158 155 155 Total domestic : 261 211 195 195 Exports : 23 27 20 20 Use, total : 284 238 215 215 Ending stocks, total : 128 108 96 96 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.53 2.45- 2.85 2.45- 2.85 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.7 63.0 56.3 56.3 Beginning stocks : 65 58 53 53 Production : 116 115 107 107 Imports : 90 94 100 100 Supply, total : 271 267 260 260 Feed and residual : 136 138 130 130 Food, seed & industrial : 74 74 75 75 Total domestic : 210 212 205 205 Exports : 3 2 2 2 Use, total : 213 214 207 207 Ending stocks, total : 58 53 53 53 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.63 1.60- 2.00 1.60- 2.00 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-438-14 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.38 2.91 2.84 Harvested : 3.33 3.36 2.90 2.82 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,988 6,636 6,813 6,846 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 23.7 37.7 34.3 43.0 Production : 232.4 223.2 197.2 193.3 Imports : 13.2 17.0 17.5 17.5 Supply, total : 269.2 277.9 249.1 253.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 122.7 117.9 129.4 124.9 Exports, total 4/ : 108.8 117.0 97.0 97.0 Rough : 33.9 35.0 37.0 37.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 75.0 82.0 60.0 60.0 Use, total : 231.5 234.9 226.4 221.9 Ending stocks : 37.7 43.0 22.7 31.9 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.2 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 7.33 7.62 9.25- 9.75 8.75- 9.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.57 2.73 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,630 6,493 Beginning stocks : 10.3 22.7 24.4 32.7 Production : 170.4 177.5 147.9 143.6 Supply, total 7/ : 191.3 212.8 185.3 189.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 84.7 85.6 96.3 91.8 Exports 8/ : 83.8 94.5 76.0 76.0 Use, total : 168.5 180.1 172.3 167.8 Ending stocks : 22.7 32.7 13.0 21.5 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.75 0.63 Yield (pounds/acre) : 8,212 7,255 Beginning stocks : 12.4 13.8 8.8 9.4 Production : 61.9 45.7 49.3 49.6 Supply, total 7/ : 76.8 64.3 62.7 63.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 38.0 32.4 33.1 33.1 Exports 8/ : 25.0 22.5 21.0 21.0 Use, total : 63.0 54.9 54.1 54.1 Ending stocks : 13.8 9.4 8.6 9.5 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.1; 2006/07-0.9. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-438-15 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 75.2 72.1 74.9 74.9 Harvested : 74.0 71.4 73.9 73.9 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 42.2 43.3 39.6 41.8 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 112 256 515 485 Production : 3,124 3,086 2,928 3,093 Imports : 6 4 4 4 Supply, total : 3,242 3,346 3,446 3,581 Crushings : 1,696 1,740 1,750 1,765 Exports : 1,097 945 1,090 1,125 Seed : 88 92 91 91 Residual : 104 85 _3/ 65 70 Use, total : 2,986 2,862 2,996 3,051 Ending stocks : 256 485 450 530 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.74 5.68 5.00- 6.00 4.90 - 5.90 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,076 1,699 2,944 3,094 Production : 19,360 20,360 19,775 19,945 Imports : 26 35 55 55 Supply, total : 20,462 22,094 22,774 23,094 Domestic : 17,439 17,900 19,200 19,200 Exports : 1,324 1,100 1,200 1,250 Use, total : 18,763 19,000 20,400 20,450 Ending stocks : 1,699 3,094 2,374 2,644 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 23.01 23.50 23.00- 23.00- : 27.00 27.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 211 172 250 300 Production : 40,715 41,013 41,685 42,035 Imports : 147 165 165 165 Supply, total : 41,073 41,350 42,100 42,500 Domestic : 33,561 33,400 34,100 34,100 Exports : 7,340 7,650 7,750 8,100 Use, total : 40,901 41,050 41,850 42,200 Ending stocks : 172 300 250 300 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 182.89 173.50 155.00- 147.50- : 185.00 177.50 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through May, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. WASDE-438-16 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projection Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :====================== : : Estimate : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,897 1,332 1,581 1,628 Production 2/ : 7,877 7,406 8,345 8,445 Beet sugar : 4,611 4,421 4,800 4,878 Cane sugar : 3,266 2,985 3,545 3,567 Florida : 1,693 1,368 1,745 1,730 Hawaii : 258 239 265 269 Louisiana : 1,157 1,202 1,350 1,370 Texas : 158 176 185 198 Imports : 2,100 3,390 2,298 2,298 TRQ 3/ : 1,408 2,630 1,848 1,848 Other program 4/ : 500 300 325 325 Other 5/ : 192 460 125 125 Supply, total : 11,874 12,128 12,224 12,371 : Exports : 259 200 200 200 Deliveries : 10,188 10,300 10,415 10,415 Food : 10,019 10,150 10,250 10,250 Other 6/ : 169 150 165 165 Miscellaneous 7/ : 95 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,542 10,500 10,615 10,615 Ending stocks : 1,332 1,628 1,609 1,756 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 15.5 15.2 16.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Projections for 2006/07 are based on processors' submissions compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2006/07, includes only U.S. commitments under current trade agreements, minus shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ For 2005/06, high-tier (400) and other (60). For 2006/07, high-tier (50) and other (75). 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. WASDE-438-17 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.66 14.25 15.28 15.28 Harvested : 13.06 13.80 12.82 12.82 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 855 831 765 762 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.45 5.50 5.90 5.95 Production : 23.25 23.89 20.43 20.35 Imports : 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 26.73 29.42 26.36 26.33 Domestic use : 6.69 5.90 5.50 5.50 Exports : 14.44 17.55 16.20 16.20 Use, total : 21.13 23.45 21.70 21.70 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.11 0.02 -0.04 0.03 Ending stocks : 5.50 5.95 4.70 4.60 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 41.6 47.7 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Average price for August 2005-July 2006. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2006/07 is 21.6 percent. WASDE-438-18 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World 3/ : 132.73 628.84 109.90 106.64 610.13 110.97 151.45 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.92 4.96 31.82 29.01 14.70 Total foreign : 117.86 570.11 107.98 101.69 578.30 81.96 136.75 Major exporters 4/ : 23.44 201.23 7.72 65.49 135.84 55.91 40.64 Argentina : 1.40 16.00 0.00 0.08 5.01 11.83 0.55 Australia : 5.36 22.60 0.08 3.70 6.40 14.74 6.89 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.25 5.01 9.23 14.97 7.99 EU-25 5/ : 10.60 136.77 7.39 56.70 115.20 14.37 25.20 Major importers 6/ : 62.69 156.40 60.59 8.29 214.35 3.40 61.94 Brazil : 0.51 5.85 5.21 0.30 10.20 0.02 1.35 China : 43.29 91.95 6.75 4.00 102.00 1.17 38.82 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.66 9.60 1.95 28.27 0.60 4.96 N. Africa 8/ : 7.47 17.17 18.41 0.30 32.58 0.21 10.25 Pakistan : 1.38 19.50 1.42 0.40 20.00 0.05 2.25 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.03 0.00 9.75 0.91 9.30 0.42 2.06 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.15 0.01 0.50 72.84 2.12 4.10 FSU-12 : 10.99 86.83 4.57 20.81 72.93 15.19 14.27 Russia : 2.65 45.40 1.20 13.60 37.40 7.95 3.89 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.03 2.10 11.70 4.35 2.61 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 151.45 618.35 110.15 111.95 623.73 115.02 146.07 United States : 14.70 57.28 2.22 4.27 31.28 27.47 15.45 Total foreign : 136.75 561.07 107.92 107.68 592.45 87.55 130.61 Major exporters 4/ : 40.64 186.41 7.84 69.76 140.68 55.00 39.21 Argentina : 0.55 12.50 0.01 0.08 5.10 7.50 0.46 Australia : 6.89 24.50 0.08 4.00 6.70 16.50 8.27 Canada : 7.99 26.78 0.25 5.18 9.38 16.00 9.64 EU-25 5/ : 25.20 122.64 7.50 60.50 119.50 15.00 20.84 Major importers 6/ : 61.94 162.22 58.59 8.60 219.14 4.41 59.19 Brazil : 1.35 4.87 6.20 0.70 10.90 0.80 0.72 China : 38.82 97.45 1.02 3.50 101.00 1.40 34.89 Select. Mideast 7/ : 4.96 19.32 12.10 1.90 29.74 0.65 5.99 N. Africa 8/ : 10.25 15.18 18.70 0.30 33.78 0.22 10.13 Pakistan : 2.25 21.50 1.00 0.40 21.50 0.05 3.20 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.06 0.00 10.50 1.38 10.15 0.38 2.03 Selected other : India : 4.10 68.64 0.03 0.30 69.97 0.80 2.00 FSU-12 : 14.27 92.20 4.48 22.91 75.27 20.15 15.52 Russia : 3.89 47.70 1.10 14.90 38.40 10.50 3.79 Kazakhstan : 3.64 11.00 0.05 2.70 7.40 3.00 4.29 Ukraine : 2.61 18.70 0.05 2.90 12.50 6.46 2.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-438-19 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 145.69 598.00 110.43 104.68 615.27 110.11 128.42 September : 146.07 596.10 111.63 104.28 615.79 110.71 126.38 United States : August : 15.45 49.03 2.86 3.95 31.03 24.49 11.82 September : 15.45 49.03 2.86 3.95 31.16 24.49 11.68 Total foreign : August : 130.24 548.98 107.57 100.73 584.25 85.61 116.60 September : 130.61 547.07 108.77 100.33 584.63 86.22 114.70 Major exporters 4/ : August : 38.91 179.85 7.06 66.68 137.50 59.80 28.51 September : 39.21 177.82 7.06 66.78 137.60 59.50 26.99 Argentina Aug : 0.46 13.50 0.01 0.08 4.90 8.80 0.27 Sep : 0.46 13.25 0.01 0.08 4.90 8.50 0.32 Australia Aug : 7.87 21.50 0.00 3.90 6.60 17.00 5.77 Sep : 8.27 19.50 0.00 4.00 6.70 16.50 4.57 Canada Aug : 9.64 25.50 0.25 4.70 9.00 18.50 7.89 Sep : 9.64 25.90 0.25 4.70 9.00 19.00 7.79 EU-25 5/ Aug : 20.93 119.35 6.80 58.00 117.00 15.50 14.58 Sep : 20.84 119.18 6.80 58.00 117.00 15.50 14.32 Major importers 6/ : August : 59.13 171.29 55.03 7.93 220.32 4.70 60.43 September : 59.19 171.29 55.03 7.93 220.49 4.70 60.32 Brazil Aug : 0.72 3.50 6.80 0.20 10.60 0.03 0.40 Sep : 0.72 3.50 6.80 0.20 10.60 0.03 0.40 China Aug : 34.97 105.00 0.70 4.00 101.00 2.00 37.67 Sep : 34.89 105.00 0.70 4.00 101.00 2.00 37.59 Sel. Mideast 7/Aug : 5.99 18.80 11.08 1.50 29.59 0.65 5.63 Sep : 5.99 18.80 11.08 1.50 29.59 0.65 5.63 N. Africa 8/ Aug : 10.13 18.33 16.60 0.30 35.13 0.22 9.71 Sep : 10.13 18.33 16.60 0.30 35.13 0.22 9.72 Pakistan Aug : 3.20 21.70 0.60 0.40 22.00 0.50 3.00 Sep : 3.20 21.70 0.60 0.40 22.00 0.50 3.00 SE Asia 9/ Aug : 1.89 0.00 10.05 1.12 9.85 0.38 1.71 Sep : 2.03 0.00 10.05 1.12 10.02 0.38 1.68 Selected other : India Aug : 2.00 68.00 4.50 0.50 71.50 0.50 2.50 Sep : 2.00 68.00 6.00 0.30 72.50 0.50 3.00 FSU-12 Aug : 15.59 80.51 4.04 19.81 71.70 15.66 12.78 Sep : 15.52 79.89 4.04 19.61 71.35 16.16 11.94 Russia Aug : 3.79 42.00 1.20 13.20 36.40 7.50 3.09 Sep : 3.79 41.50 1.20 13.20 36.40 7.50 2.59 Kazakhstan Aug : 4.29 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.60 4.50 3.71 Sep : 4.29 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.60 4.50 3.71 Ukraine Aug : 2.46 13.50 0.10 1.70 10.80 3.50 1.76 Sep : 2.40 13.50 0.10 1.60 10.60 4.00 1.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-438-20 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World 3/ : 139.72 1014.01 101.19 641.37 975.63 101.64 178.10 United States : 28.76 319.42 2.24 165.87 240.22 51.41 58.80 Total foreign : 110.96 694.59 98.95 475.50 735.41 50.23 119.30 Major exporters 4/ : 10.53 75.13 3.04 36.67 50.03 24.89 13.78 Argentina : 1.00 24.90 0.01 6.60 9.06 15.24 1.61 Australia : 2.25 11.57 0.00 5.71 6.93 4.62 2.27 Canada : 4.09 26.45 2.47 19.16 23.74 2.85 6.42 Major importers 5/ : 32.89 225.58 76.28 214.16 283.31 4.61 46.83 EU-25 6/ : 12.62 150.75 3.68 106.54 138.82 4.01 24.23 Japan : 1.85 0.20 19.71 15.05 19.88 0.00 1.88 Mexico : 5.68 28.95 8.98 22.13 38.28 0.03 5.31 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.16 28.34 20.29 39.01 46.07 0.06 8.66 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 6.91 6.65 6.84 0.00 2.71 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.62 16.73 3.24 13.37 19.38 0.52 1.69 South Korea : 1.42 0.34 8.72 6.66 9.01 0.00 1.47 Selected other : China : 45.48 138.25 2.07 100.21 141.17 7.62 37.02 Other Europe : 1.70 29.05 0.66 19.83 24.96 2.31 4.14 FSU-12 : 5.96 62.95 1.06 38.09 54.62 8.10 7.26 Russia : 2.93 29.60 0.68 19.00 29.40 1.13 2.67 Ukraine : 1.62 23.00 0.02 11.35 15.20 6.77 2.67 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 178.10 973.87 102.32 632.38 984.84 102.89 167.12 United States : 58.80 298.74 2.13 162.24 243.96 60.18 55.52 Total foreign : 119.30 675.13 100.19 470.15 740.88 42.70 111.61 Major exporters 4/ : 13.78 65.07 2.75 36.38 49.72 19.78 12.10 Argentina : 1.61 17.90 0.00 6.66 9.12 8.91 1.48 Australia : 2.27 13.76 0.00 5.81 7.04 6.02 2.97 Canada : 6.42 26.04 1.87 19.60 24.31 4.08 5.94 Major importers 5/ : 46.83 201.52 77.91 209.64 278.61 5.20 42.45 EU-25 6/ : 24.23 131.48 3.22 100.00 132.15 4.01 22.78 Japan : 1.88 0.19 19.87 15.34 20.17 0.00 1.77 Mexico : 5.31 25.53 10.50 21.58 37.98 0.10 3.26 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 8.66 26.54 19.06 38.78 45.72 0.87 7.68 Saudi Arabia : 2.71 0.20 7.60 7.63 7.81 0.00 2.70 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.69 17.18 4.17 14.88 20.74 0.23 2.07 South Korea : 1.47 0.33 8.54 6.57 8.90 0.00 1.43 Selected other : China : 37.02 147.47 2.21 103.12 147.17 4.03 35.49 Other Europe : 4.14 26.80 0.57 19.04 25.03 1.94 4.53 FSU-12 : 7.26 55.08 1.07 33.46 49.43 8.27 5.71 Russia : 2.67 27.60 0.54 17.60 27.65 1.76 1.40 Ukraine : 2.67 18.14 0.08 8.45 11.99 6.34 2.57 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-438-21 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 167.61 969.89 101.26 641.21 1010.04 103.07 127.46 September : 167.12 969.42 103.00 640.23 1010.75 104.79 125.80 United States : August : 56.79 292.05 2.54 160.84 256.86 59.27 35.25 September : 55.52 295.77 2.54 160.97 256.98 61.81 35.03 Total foreign : August : 110.82 677.84 98.72 480.37 753.18 43.80 92.21 September : 111.61 673.65 100.47 479.27 753.76 42.98 90.77 Major exporters 4/ : August : 11.73 67.31 3.40 37.53 51.65 21.12 9.68 September : 12.10 65.81 3.40 37.23 51.25 20.89 9.17 Argentina Aug : 1.48 21.57 0.00 7.11 9.67 11.96 1.43 Sep : 1.48 21.57 0.00 7.11 9.67 11.96 1.43 Australia Aug : 2.97 11.81 0.00 6.17 7.39 5.22 2.17 Sep : 2.97 11.06 0.00 6.04 7.27 4.90 1.87 Canada Aug : 5.57 24.54 2.87 19.92 25.24 3.33 4.42 Sep : 5.94 23.74 2.87 19.72 24.94 3.43 4.19 Major importers 5/ : August : 42.13 206.20 76.65 213.23 283.01 5.03 36.94 September : 42.45 202.65 77.55 212.93 282.61 3.98 36.05 EU-25 6/ Aug : 22.66 131.43 2.95 102.12 134.65 4.71 17.68 Sep : 22.78 127.88 2.95 101.12 133.55 3.66 16.40 Japan Aug : 1.77 0.17 19.47 14.97 19.90 0.00 1.51 Sep : 1.77 0.17 19.47 14.97 19.90 0.00 1.51 Mexico Aug : 3.26 28.43 10.20 22.18 38.68 0.00 3.21 Sep : 3.26 28.43 10.20 22.18 38.68 0.00 3.21 N Afr/M.East 7/Aug : 7.58 28.03 18.90 39.39 46.76 0.10 7.65 Sep : 7.68 28.03 19.60 39.89 47.26 0.10 7.95 Saudi Arabia Aug : 2.70 0.20 8.00 7.83 8.01 0.00 2.89 Sep : 2.70 0.20 8.00 7.83 8.01 0.00 2.89 S.-east Asia 8/Aug : 1.97 17.53 3.56 15.27 20.93 0.23 1.90 Sep : 2.07 17.53 3.56 15.27 20.93 0.23 2.00 South Korea Aug : 1.43 0.33 8.83 6.86 9.19 0.00 1.40 Sep : 1.43 0.33 8.83 6.86 9.19 0.00 1.40 Selected other : China Aug : 35.50 146.06 2.34 104.92 151.23 4.03 28.64 Sep : 35.49 146.06 2.34 104.92 151.23 4.03 28.63 Other Europe Aug : 4.57 24.11 0.64 18.82 24.38 2.06 2.88 Sep : 4.53 23.96 0.64 18.67 24.23 2.06 2.84 FSU-12 Aug : 5.66 58.52 0.93 35.74 50.98 9.08 5.06 Sep : 5.71 57.45 0.93 34.86 50.10 9.38 4.60 Russia Aug : 1.40 29.80 0.60 18.50 28.25 2.20 1.35 Sep : 1.40 29.50 0.60 18.10 27.95 2.20 1.35 Ukraine Aug : 2.52 19.95 0.07 10.35 13.65 6.50 2.39 Sep : 2.57 19.15 0.07 9.85 13.05 6.80 1.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-438-22 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World 3/ : 103.23 712.31 77.11 471.53 685.01 78.18 130.53 United States : 24.34 299.91 0.28 156.43 224.65 46.18 53.70 Total foreign : 78.90 412.39 76.83 315.10 460.36 32.00 76.83 Major exporters 4/ : 3.18 32.22 0.37 8.50 14.90 16.72 4.15 Argentina : 0.22 20.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.57 0.96 South Africa : 2.96 11.72 0.36 5.00 9.70 2.14 3.19 Major importers 5/ : 12.96 98.03 47.22 100.52 140.09 0.70 17.42 Egypt : 0.48 5.84 5.40 9.50 11.30 0.00 0.42 EU-25 6/ : 2.94 53.48 2.97 42.00 51.70 0.16 7.52 Japan : 1.04 0.00 16.49 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.03 Mexico : 4.37 22.05 5.95 12.60 27.90 0.03 4.44 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 16.53 3.23 13.20 19.20 0.51 1.66 South Korea : 1.42 0.08 8.64 6.62 8.67 0.00 1.47 Selected other : Brazil : 7.88 35.00 0.50 32.10 38.50 0.68 4.19 Canada : 1.14 8.84 2.37 7.91 10.31 0.24 1.80 China : 44.85 130.29 0.00 98.00 131.00 7.59 36.56 Other Europe : 1.18 23.70 0.43 16.58 20.17 1.72 3.40 FSU-12 : 1.36 15.39 0.55 11.01 12.71 2.42 2.17 Ukraine : 0.84 8.80 0.01 5.30 6.00 2.33 1.32 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 130.53 692.44 77.04 472.04 696.81 76.01 126.15 United States : 53.70 282.26 0.28 154.95 230.52 54.61 51.10 Total foreign : 76.83 410.18 76.77 317.09 466.29 21.40 75.05 Major exporters 4/ : 4.15 21.50 0.75 8.30 14.60 9.25 2.55 Argentina : 0.96 14.50 0.00 4.20 5.90 8.50 1.06 South Africa : 3.19 7.00 0.75 4.10 8.70 0.75 1.49 Major importers 5/ : 17.42 90.47 48.16 97.85 137.23 0.40 18.42 Egypt : 0.42 5.86 4.30 8.30 10.10 0.00 0.48 EU-25 6/ : 7.52 48.32 2.80 39.00 48.50 0.10 10.04 Japan : 1.03 0.00 16.70 12.20 16.70 0.00 1.03 Mexico : 4.44 19.20 7.00 12.40 27.90 0.10 2.64 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.66 16.98 4.16 14.70 20.55 0.20 2.04 South Korea : 1.47 0.06 8.40 6.50 8.50 0.00 1.43 Selected other : Brazil : 4.19 41.00 0.50 33.00 39.50 2.00 4.19 Canada : 1.80 9.46 1.80 8.40 10.90 0.25 1.91 China : 36.56 139.36 0.08 101.00 137.00 4.00 35.00 Other Europe : 3.40 22.18 0.29 16.00 20.50 1.50 3.87 FSU-12 : 2.17 13.13 0.55 10.07 11.71 2.38 1.76 Ukraine : 1.32 7.15 0.00 4.40 5.10 2.30 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-438-23 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 127.04 689.31 76.66 478.19 723.48 78.29 92.88 September : 126.15 690.78 78.41 478.36 724.63 80.28 92.31 United States : August : 52.37 278.80 0.25 155.58 245.50 54.61 31.31 September : 51.10 282.30 0.25 155.58 245.50 57.15 31.00 Total foreign : August : 74.67 410.52 76.41 322.61 477.97 23.68 61.57 September : 75.05 408.48 78.16 322.78 479.13 23.13 61.31 Major exporters 4/ : August : 2.55 26.50 0.40 8.40 14.90 12.10 2.45 September : 2.55 26.50 0.40 8.40 14.90 12.10 2.45 Argentina Aug : 1.06 17.50 0.00 4.30 6.10 11.50 0.96 Sep : 1.06 17.50 0.00 4.30 6.10 11.50 0.96 South Africa Aug : 1.49 9.00 0.40 4.10 8.80 0.60 1.49 Sep : 1.49 9.00 0.40 4.10 8.80 0.60 1.49 Major importers 5/ : August : 18.32 90.44 47.65 98.70 138.57 1.20 16.64 September : 18.42 88.94 47.85 98.90 138.77 0.70 15.74 Egypt Aug : 0.48 5.87 4.80 8.60 10.60 0.00 0.55 Sep : 0.48 5.87 4.80 8.60 10.60 0.00 0.55 EU-25 6/ Aug : 10.04 45.83 2.50 39.00 48.80 1.00 8.56 Sep : 10.04 44.33 2.50 39.00 48.80 0.50 7.56 Japan Aug : 1.03 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.60 0.00 0.93 Sep : 1.03 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.60 0.00 0.93 Mexico Aug : 2.64 21.30 7.00 12.70 28.30 0.00 2.64 Sep : 2.64 21.30 7.00 12.70 28.30 0.00 2.64 S.-east Asia 7/Aug : 1.94 17.33 3.55 15.10 20.75 0.20 1.87 Sep : 2.04 17.33 3.55 15.10 20.75 0.20 1.97 South Korea Aug : 1.43 0.07 8.70 6.80 8.80 0.00 1.40 Sep : 1.43 0.07 8.70 6.80 8.80 0.00 1.40 Selected other : Brazil Aug : 4.19 40.50 0.75 34.50 41.50 1.00 2.94 Sep : 4.19 40.50 0.75 34.50 41.50 1.00 2.94 Canada Aug : 1.82 9.00 2.80 9.00 12.00 0.20 1.42 Sep : 1.91 9.00 2.80 9.00 12.00 0.20 1.51 China Aug : 35.00 138.00 0.10 103.00 141.00 4.00 28.10 Sep : 35.00 138.00 0.10 103.00 141.00 4.00 28.10 Other Europe Aug : 3.87 20.16 0.31 16.09 20.18 1.80 2.37 Sep : 3.87 20.01 0.31 15.94 20.03 1.80 2.37 FSU-12 Aug : 1.76 13.13 0.45 10.39 11.78 2.03 1.53 Sep : 1.76 11.93 0.45 9.49 10.88 1.83 1.43 Ukraine Aug : 1.07 6.80 0.00 4.50 5.00 2.00 0.87 Sep : 1.07 6.00 0.00 4.00 4.50 1.80 0.77 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-438-24 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 3/ : 85.39 400.49 26.31 407.88 28.38 78.00 United States : 0.76 7.46 0.42 3.94 3.50 1.21 Total foreign : 84.63 393.02 25.89 403.95 24.88 76.79 Major exporters 4/ : 17.44 128.13 0.32 110.77 19.94 15.18 India : 10.80 83.13 0.00 80.74 4.69 8.50 Pakistan : 0.64 4.92 0.00 2.55 2.80 0.20 Thailand : 1.71 17.36 0.00 9.48 7.27 2.31 Vietnam : 4.30 22.72 0.32 18.00 5.17 4.16 Major importers 5/ : 12.56 60.22 9.25 68.66 0.59 12.78 Brazil : 1.34 9.00 0.55 9.00 0.30 1.59 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.83 0.50 35.85 0.05 3.45 Nigeria : 1.00 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.42 Philippines : 4.05 9.43 1.50 10.40 0.00 4.57 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.31 3.27 5.05 0.06 1.46 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 9.57 0.00 10.30 0.19 0.71 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.07 0.42 0.48 0.00 0.13 China : 43.92 125.36 0.61 130.30 0.66 38.93 Egypt : 0.72 4.13 0.00 3.25 1.10 0.50 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.78 8.30 0.20 1.92 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.75 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 0.85 5.00 0.19 4.86 0.27 0.91 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 3/ : 78.00 415.80 26.77 413.39 28.09 80.41 United States : 1.21 7.11 0.54 3.76 3.73 1.37 Total foreign : 76.79 408.69 26.23 409.63 24.36 79.04 Major exporters 4/ : 15.18 137.21 0.40 115.53 19.20 18.06 India : 8.50 91.04 0.00 85.22 3.80 10.52 Pakistan : 0.20 5.55 0.00 2.56 2.90 0.30 Thailand : 2.31 18.20 0.05 9.50 7.30 3.76 Vietnam : 4.16 22.42 0.35 18.25 5.20 3.48 Major importers 5/ : 12.78 59.81 11.02 69.84 0.49 13.30 Brazil : 1.59 7.80 0.60 9.15 0.25 0.59 EU-25 6/ : 1.13 1.71 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.09 Indonesia : 3.45 34.96 0.90 35.80 0.00 3.51 Nigeria : 0.42 2.70 1.78 4.35 0.00 0.55 Philippines : 4.57 9.80 1.90 11.00 0.00 5.27 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.46 2.38 3.76 5.39 0.06 2.14 Selected other : Burma : 0.71 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.20 0.55 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.13 0.07 0.45 0.49 0.00 0.15 China : 38.93 126.41 0.70 128.00 0.80 37.25 Egypt : 0.50 4.13 0.00 3.28 1.00 0.36 Japan : 1.92 8.26 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.43 Mexico : 0.17 0.18 0.60 0.78 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 0.91 4.77 0.40 4.85 0.13 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-438-25 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 79.86 417.81 25.97 418.69 28.04 78.97 September : 80.41 417.69 25.94 418.70 28.04 79.39 United States : August : 1.09 6.26 0.56 4.11 3.08 0.72 September : 1.37 6.14 0.56 3.97 3.08 1.01 Total foreign : August : 78.76 411.54 25.41 414.58 24.96 78.25 September : 79.04 411.55 25.39 414.73 24.96 78.38 Major exporters 4/ : August : 18.02 137.24 0.40 118.18 19.75 17.73 September : 18.06 137.24 0.40 118.13 19.75 17.82 India Aug : 10.52 91.00 0.00 87.50 4.30 9.72 Sep : 10.52 91.00 0.00 87.50 4.30 9.72 Pakistan Aug : 0.26 5.20 0.00 2.61 2.50 0.35 Sep : 0.30 5.20 0.00 2.56 2.50 0.44 Thailand Aug : 3.76 18.50 0.10 9.57 8.25 4.54 Sep : 3.76 18.50 0.10 9.57 8.25 4.54 Vietnam Aug : 3.48 22.54 0.30 18.50 4.70 3.12 Sep : 3.48 22.54 0.30 18.50 4.70 3.12 Major importers 5/ : August : 13.08 60.85 9.79 70.30 0.38 13.05 September : 13.30 60.81 9.74 70.45 0.38 13.03 Brazil Aug : 0.59 8.50 0.60 9.25 0.15 0.29 Sep : 0.59 8.50 0.60 9.25 0.15 0.29 EU-25 6/ Aug : 1.09 1.78 0.98 2.60 0.18 1.07 Sep : 1.09 1.74 0.98 2.60 0.18 1.03 Indonesia Aug : 3.41 35.09 0.60 35.65 0.00 3.45 Sep : 3.51 35.09 0.60 35.80 0.00 3.40 Nigeria Aug : 0.57 2.80 1.70 4.45 0.00 0.62 Sep : 0.55 2.80 1.60 4.45 0.00 0.50 Philippines Aug : 5.27 9.75 1.75 11.25 0.00 5.52 Sep : 5.27 9.75 1.75 11.25 0.00 5.52 Sel. Mideast 7/Aug : 2.00 2.44 3.10 5.49 0.05 2.00 Sep : 2.14 2.44 3.10 5.49 0.05 2.14 Selected other : Burma Aug : 0.55 10.70 0.00 10.50 0.25 0.50 Sep : 0.55 10.70 0.00 10.50 0.25 0.50 C. Am & Car. 8/Aug : 0.15 0.07 0.45 0.50 0.00 0.17 Sep : 0.15 0.07 0.45 0.50 0.00 0.17 China Aug : 37.23 128.00 0.80 127.80 0.80 37.43 Sep : 37.25 128.00 0.80 127.80 0.80 37.45 Egypt Aug : 0.36 4.14 0.00 3.30 0.80 0.40 Sep : 0.36 4.14 0.00 3.30 0.80 0.40 Japan Aug : 2.43 7.94 0.65 8.20 0.20 2.62 Sep : 2.43 7.94 0.65 8.20 0.20 2.62 Mexico Aug : 0.18 0.18 0.60 0.80 0.00 0.16 Sep : 0.18 0.18 0.60 0.80 0.00 0.16 South Korea Aug : 1.10 4.70 0.27 4.84 0.10 1.12 Sep : 1.10 4.70 0.27 4.84 0.10 1.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-438-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World : 43.05 120.33 33.34 108.82 35.00 -1.12 54.03 United States : 3.45 23.25 0.03 6.69 14.44 0.11 5.50 Total foreign : 39.60 97.08 33.31 102.13 20.56 -1.23 48.53 Major exporters 4/ : 14.69 45.77 1.89 23.50 16.62 -0.19 22.41 Central Asia 5/ : 1.71 8.01 3/ 1.51 5.90 0.00 2.32 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.30 5.01 3/ 0.20 4.13 0.00 1.97 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.34 0.45 5.26 4.23 -0.20 7.94 Australia : 0.89 3.00 3/ 0.07 2.00 -0.12 1.96 Brazil : 4.63 5.90 0.21 4.20 1.56 -0.10 5.08 India : 4.19 19.00 1.04 14.80 0.66 0.00 8.76 Major importers 8/ : 23.02 47.42 28.66 73.87 2.59 -1.06 23.70 Mexico : 1.14 0.63 1.81 2.10 0.14 0.03 1.32 China : 14.96 29.00 6.39 38.50 0.03 -1.25 13.06 EU-25 9/ : 0.97 2.31 3.08 3.47 1.66 0.06 1.16 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.45 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.48 4.15 3.41 7.10 0.15 0.00 1.79 Pakistan : 2.03 11.14 1.70 10.75 0.56 0.03 3.54 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.20 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.38 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.28 2.10 0.00 0.03 0.63 Bangladesh : 0.35 0.06 1.85 1.88 0.00 0.01 0.38 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World : 54.03 114.15 44.38 117.37 44.18 -1.18 52.18 United States : 5.50 23.89 0.03 5.90 17.55 0.02 5.95 Total foreign : 48.53 90.26 44.35 111.47 26.63 -1.19 46.23 Major exporters 4/ : 22.41 43.76 1.51 25.09 21.97 -0.09 20.71 Central Asia 5/ : 2.32 8.34 3/ 1.46 6.86 0.00 2.34 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.97 4.24 3/ 0.19 4.47 0.00 1.55 S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.94 8.98 0.59 5.16 5.69 -0.10 6.77 Australia : 1.96 2.80 3/ 0.06 3.00 -0.12 1.82 Brazil : 5.08 4.70 0.31 4.05 1.97 0.00 4.07 India : 8.76 19.20 0.40 16.50 3.25 0.00 8.61 Major importers 8/ : 23.70 42.93 40.48 81.90 2.97 -1.11 23.34 Mexico : 1.32 0.64 1.70 2.00 0.35 0.03 1.28 China : 13.06 26.20 19.28 46.50 0.04 -1.30 13.31 EU-25 9/ : 1.16 2.49 2.34 2.77 1.94 0.06 1.22 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.79 3.55 3.45 6.90 0.20 0.00 1.69 Pakistan : 3.54 9.85 1.95 11.75 0.32 0.03 3.25 Indonesia : 0.38 0.03 2.20 2.18 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.63 0.05 1.89 2.05 0.01 0.03 0.50 Bangladesh : 0.38 0.07 2.21 2.20 0.00 0.01 0.46 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade. WASDE-438-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World : August : 52.49 115.59 43.83 121.69 43.35 -1.44 48.29 September : 52.18 114.94 43.59 122.24 43.10 -1.37 46.73 United States : August : 5.90 20.43 0.03 5.50 16.20 -0.04 4.70 September : 5.95 20.35 0.03 5.50 16.20 0.03 4.60 Total foreign : August : 46.59 95.16 43.80 116.19 27.15 -1.40 43.59 September : 46.23 94.60 43.56 116.74 26.90 -1.40 42.13 Major exporters 4/ : August : 21.16 46.21 1.81 25.47 22.52 -0.09 21.27 September : 20.71 45.51 1.88 26.07 22.32 -0.09 19.80 Central Asia 5/Aug : 2.39 7.93 3/ 1.40 6.74 0.00 2.18 Sep : 2.34 7.93 3/ 1.40 6.74 0.00 2.13 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Aug : 1.55 4.64 3/ 0.18 4.71 0.00 1.30 Sep : 1.55 4.47 3/ 0.18 4.56 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis 7/ Aug : 6.48 9.84 0.76 5.34 5.00 -0.10 6.83 Sep : 6.77 9.39 0.73 5.19 5.03 -0.10 6.77 Australia Aug : 1.82 2.60 3/ 0.06 2.70 -0.12 1.79 Sep : 1.82 2.40 3/ 0.06 2.70 -0.12 1.59 Brazil Aug : 3.83 5.50 0.50 4.20 1.50 0.00 4.13 Sep : 4.07 5.25 0.50 4.05 1.50 0.00 4.27 India Aug : 9.31 21.00 0.50 16.75 4.25 0.00 9.81 Sep : 8.61 21.00 0.60 17.50 4.25 0.00 8.46 Major importers 8/ : August : 23.26 45.37 39.65 86.32 2.94 -1.31 20.33 September : 23.34 45.49 39.37 86.30 2.89 -1.31 20.34 Mexico Aug : 1.28 0.64 1.30 1.90 0.30 0.03 0.99 Sep : 1.28 0.64 1.30 1.90 0.30 0.03 0.99 China Aug : 13.28 27.50 20.00 51.00 0.03 -1.50 11.25 Sep : 13.31 28.00 19.50 51.00 0.03 -1.50 11.29 EU-25 9/ Aug : 1.20 2.38 2.12 2.47 2.01 0.06 1.16 Sep : 1.22 2.30 2.08 2.42 1.96 0.06 1.17 Russia Aug : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Sep : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Aug : 1.69 4.15 2.60 6.70 0.20 0.00 1.54 Sep : 1.69 4.25 2.55 6.70 0.20 0.00 1.59 Pakistan Aug : 3.24 10.50 1.80 12.20 0.30 0.03 3.02 Sep : 3.25 10.10 2.00 12.20 0.30 0.03 2.82 Indonesia Aug : 0.37 0.03 2.20 2.18 0.02 0.05 0.35 Sep : 0.37 0.03 2.20 2.18 0.02 0.05 0.35 Thailand Aug : 0.48 0.05 2.05 2.10 0.00 0.03 0.46 Sep : 0.50 0.05 2.05 2.10 0.00 0.03 0.47 Bangladesh Aug : 0.42 0.07 2.15 2.20 0.00 0.01 0.44 Sep : 0.46 0.07 2.30 2.30 0.00 0.01 0.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade. WASDE-438-28 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 2/ : 38.60 215.95 63.50 175.65 205.26 64.54 48.26 United States : 3.06 85.01 0.15 46.16 51.40 29.86 6.96 Total foreign : 35.55 130.94 63.35 129.49 153.85 34.68 41.30 Major exporters 3/ : 30.99 96.05 1.26 57.54 62.04 32.34 33.93 Argentina : 15.40 39.00 0.69 27.31 28.75 9.31 17.03 Brazil : 15.51 53.00 0.53 29.25 32.10 20.14 16.81 Major importers 4/ : 3.62 19.55 51.93 53.34 68.53 0.42 6.15 China : 2.10 17.40 25.80 30.36 40.21 0.39 4.70 EU-25 : 0.90 0.79 14.61 14.00 15.40 0.01 0.88 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.30 3.15 4.50 0.00 0.26 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.64 3.73 3.76 0.00 0.05 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 2/ : 48.26 218.64 64.17 185.08 214.49 65.20 51.39 United States : 6.96 84.00 0.11 47.36 52.16 25.72 13.19 Total foreign : 41.30 134.65 64.06 137.72 162.33 39.48 38.20 Major exporters 3/ : 33.93 99.50 0.78 61.45 65.88 36.65 31.68 Argentina : 17.03 40.50 0.58 32.50 34.03 7.30 16.78 Brazil : 16.81 55.00 0.17 27.80 30.41 26.75 14.82 Major importers 4/ : 6.15 18.65 53.01 56.79 72.16 0.38 5.26 China : 4.70 16.35 27.70 34.50 44.55 0.35 3.85 EU-25 : 0.88 0.86 14.10 13.68 14.99 0.01 0.84 Japan : 0.26 0.23 4.05 2.88 4.24 0.00 0.30 Mexico : 0.05 0.15 3.73 3.84 3.88 0.00 0.04 : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 52.51 217.74 69.10 190.15 220.15 69.23 49.97 September : 51.39 221.89 69.42 190.76 220.12 70.08 52.49 United States : August : 14.00 79.68 0.11 47.63 51.88 29.67 12.24 September : 13.19 84.18 0.11 48.04 52.42 30.62 14.44 Total foreign : August : 38.51 138.06 68.99 142.53 168.27 39.57 37.73 September : 38.20 137.71 69.31 142.73 167.70 39.46 38.06 Major exporters 3/ : August : 31.96 102.00 1.14 62.20 66.66 36.50 31.94 September : 31.68 102.00 1.04 62.40 66.50 36.30 31.92 Argentina Aug : 15.30 41.30 0.90 33.00 34.54 7.80 15.17 Sep : 16.78 41.30 0.80 33.70 35.24 7.00 16.64 Brazil Aug : 16.57 56.00 0.23 28.00 30.72 25.40 16.68 Sep : 14.82 56.00 0.23 27.50 29.86 26.00 15.19 Major importers 4/ : August : 5.36 19.09 56.90 59.99 76.31 0.39 4.64 September : 5.26 18.59 57.40 59.99 75.91 0.39 4.94 China Aug : 3.95 16.70 31.50 37.75 48.55 0.35 3.25 Sep : 3.85 16.20 32.00 37.75 48.15 0.35 3.55 EU-25 Aug : 0.84 0.95 13.88 13.45 14.81 0.01 0.85 Sep : 0.84 0.95 13.88 13.45 14.81 0.01 0.85 Japan Aug : 0.30 0.20 4.10 2.90 4.32 0.00 0.28 Sep : 0.30 0.20 4.10 2.90 4.32 0.00 0.28 Mexico Aug : 0.04 0.16 3.76 3.88 3.92 0.00 0.04 Sep : 0.04 0.16 3.76 3.88 3.92 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-438-29 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 2/ : 5.39 138.71 45.84 136.82 46.52 6.59 United States : 0.19 36.94 0.13 30.45 6.66 0.16 Total foreign : 5.20 101.77 45.70 106.38 39.86 6.44 Major exporters 3/ : 2.98 48.19 0.25 10.68 36.59 4.16 Argentina : 1.20 21.53 0.00 0.50 20.50 1.74 Brazil : 1.75 22.66 0.25 8.88 14.24 1.54 India : 0.04 4.01 0.00 1.31 1.85 0.88 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 36.85 27.43 63.10 1.19 1.18 EU-25 : 0.85 11.01 21.72 32.21 0.53 0.85 China : 0.00 24.03 0.07 23.46 0.63 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 2/ : 6.59 145.40 50.29 145.34 51.06 5.88 United States : 0.16 37.21 0.15 30.30 6.94 0.27 Total foreign : 6.44 108.19 50.14 115.04 44.12 5.61 Major exporters 3/ : 4.16 51.37 0.19 11.24 40.95 3.53 Argentina : 1.74 25.44 0.00 0.56 24.70 1.91 Brazil : 1.54 21.61 0.19 9.26 12.70 1.38 India : 0.88 4.33 0.00 1.42 3.55 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 39.77 29.38 68.11 1.10 1.12 EU-25 : 0.85 10.76 22.46 32.49 0.72 0.86 China : 0.00 27.30 0.90 27.85 0.35 0.00 : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 5.89 149.80 51.58 149.99 52.12 5.16 September : 5.88 150.73 52.14 151.18 52.35 5.22 United States : August : 0.23 37.82 0.15 30.94 7.03 0.23 September : 0.27 38.13 0.15 30.94 7.35 0.27 Total foreign : August : 5.66 111.99 51.43 119.05 45.09 4.93 September : 5.61 112.60 51.99 120.25 45.00 4.95 Major exporters 3/ : August : 3.55 52.04 0.20 11.51 41.35 2.93 September : 3.53 52.54 0.20 11.60 41.70 2.97 Argentina Aug : 2.00 25.93 0.00 0.62 25.75 1.56 Sep : 1.91 26.44 0.00 0.60 26.00 1.75 Brazil Aug : 1.31 21.71 0.20 9.41 12.50 1.31 Sep : 1.38 21.71 0.20 9.52 12.60 1.17 India Aug : 0.24 4.40 0.00 1.48 3.10 0.05 Sep : 0.24 4.40 0.00 1.48 3.10 0.05 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.12 42.27 30.07 71.21 1.19 1.06 September : 1.12 42.35 29.89 71.17 1.13 1.06 EU-25 Aug : 0.86 10.58 22.80 32.63 0.75 0.86 Sep : 0.86 10.58 22.80 32.63 0.75 0.86 China Aug : 0.00 29.87 0.80 30.27 0.40 0.00 Sep : 0.00 29.95 0.80 30.40 0.35 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-438-30 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 2/ : 2.64 32.47 8.96 31.72 9.23 3.12 United States : 0.49 8.78 0.01 7.91 0.60 0.77 Total foreign : 2.15 23.69 8.94 23.81 8.63 2.35 Major exporters 3/ : 1.41 13.24 0.16 5.63 7.68 1.51 Argentina : 0.86 5.09 0.00 0.41 4.75 0.79 Brazil : 0.37 5.65 0.00 3.09 2.41 0.52 EU-25 : 0.18 2.51 0.16 2.14 0.51 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 6.32 3.83 9.91 0.05 0.63 China : 0.34 5.42 1.74 7.21 0.04 0.25 India : 0.10 0.90 2.02 2.63 0.01 0.38 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.12 34.37 9.27 33.61 9.39 3.76 United States : 0.77 9.24 0.02 8.12 0.50 1.40 Total foreign : 2.35 25.13 9.26 25.49 8.89 2.35 Major exporters 3/ : 1.51 13.85 0.75 6.47 8.03 1.61 Argentina : 0.79 6.10 0.00 0.42 5.63 0.84 Brazil : 0.52 5.31 0.02 3.13 2.15 0.57 EU-25 : 0.20 2.45 0.73 2.92 0.25 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.63 7.13 3.58 10.71 0.11 0.52 China : 0.25 6.15 1.60 7.70 0.10 0.20 India : 0.38 0.97 1.95 2.98 0.01 0.32 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.00 : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 3.27 34.94 9.63 35.33 9.73 2.77 September : 3.76 35.19 9.72 35.60 9.97 3.10 United States : August : 1.34 8.97 0.03 8.71 0.54 1.08 September : 1.40 9.05 0.03 8.71 0.57 1.20 Total foreign : August : 1.93 25.97 9.60 26.62 9.19 1.69 September : 2.35 26.14 9.70 26.89 9.40 1.90 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.30 13.89 0.77 6.53 8.23 1.20 September : 1.61 14.05 0.92 6.84 8.43 1.31 Argentina Aug : 0.85 6.22 0.00 0.46 5.88 0.74 Sep : 0.84 6.34 0.00 0.56 5.93 0.69 Brazil Aug : 0.26 5.21 0.02 3.12 2.11 0.26 Sep : 0.57 5.25 0.02 3.18 2.25 0.41 EU-25 Aug : 0.20 2.46 0.75 2.95 0.25 0.21 Sep : 0.20 2.46 0.90 3.10 0.25 0.21 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.40 7.74 3.70 11.49 0.08 0.27 September : 0.52 7.76 3.75 11.57 0.08 0.38 China Aug : 0.20 6.74 1.90 8.54 0.08 0.22 Sep : 0.20 6.76 1.80 8.46 0.08 0.22 India Aug : 0.20 0.99 1.75 2.88 0.01 0.05 Sep : 0.32 0.99 1.90 3.05 0.01 0.16 Pakistan Aug : 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.00 Sep : 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-438-31 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2005 : III : 6560 5000 11643 8939 1375 10445 22088 1871 44.1 IV : 6209 5526 11822 8904 1405 10432 22254 1915 43.7 Annual : 24683 20685 45711 35365 5504 41386 87097 7504 177.0 : 2006 : I : 6078 5321 11486 8937 1354 10416 21902 1878 45.6 II : 6699 4998 11782 9129 1440 10701 22483 1880 46.9 III*: 6950 5050 12081 9000 1410 10535 22616 1900 44.7 IV*: 6300 5650 12039 8950 1445 10520 22559 1925 44.8 Annual : Aug Proj : 26127 21019 47492 36015 5649 42181 89673 7582 181.3 Sep Proj : 26027 21019 47388 36016 5649 42172 89560 7583 182.0 : 2007 : I*: 6400 5350 11839 9000 1375 10500 22339 1895 46.3 II*: 6800 5225 12111 9175 1445 10750 22861 1915 47.3 Annual : Aug Proj : 26755 21625 48734 36575 5730 42825 91559 7705 183.1 Sep Proj : 26825 21625 48798 36575 5730 42825 91623 7690 183.2 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2005 : III : 81.79 50.51 72.1 76.5 66.6 14.97 IV : 90.27 45.67 66.7 83.6 75.0 15.17 Annual : 87.28 50.05 70.8 73.4 65.5 15.14 : 2006 : I : 89.24 42.63 62.7 67.3 71.4 13.53 II : 80.39 48.45 61.0 71.3 62.7 12.00 III*: 84-85 51-52 68-69 78-79 64-65 11.95-12.15 IV*: 85-89 42-44 64-68 79-83 74-78 13.15-13.65 Annual : Aug Proj : 82-84 45-46 64-65 73-75 69-71 12.60-12.80 Sep Proj : 85-86 46-47 64-65 74-75 68-69 12.65-12.85 : 2007 : I*: 82-88 37-41 64-70 62-68 72-78 12.55-13.35 II*: 81-87 39-43 65-71 64-70 69-75 12.45-13.45 Annual : Aug Proj : 81-87 39-42 65-70 68-74 75-81 12.90-13.90 Sep Proj : 81-87 39-42 65-70 68-74 73-79 12.90-13.90 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-438-32 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2005 : 637 24784 3599 29020 698 571 27751 65.5 2006 Proj. Aug : 571 26229 3222 30022 1103 575 28344 66.3 Sep : 571 26129 3197 29897 1123 575 28199 65.9 2007 Proj. Aug : 575 26857 3340 30772 1385 575 28812 66.8 Sep : 575 26927 3340 30842 1500 575 28767 66.7 : PORK : 2005 : 543 20706 1025 22274 2665 494 19115 50.0 2006 Proj. Aug : 494 21039 1026 22559 3018 500 19041 49.4 Sep : 494 21039 1026 22559 3018 500 19041 49.4 2007 Proj. Aug : 500 21645 1030 23175 3150 500 19525 50.2 Sep : 500 21645 1030 23175 3150 500 19525 50.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2005 : 1187 45846 4804 51837 3372 1080 47385 117.0 2006 Proj. Aug : 1080 47627 4433 53140 4136 1088 47916 117.2 Sep : 1080 47523 4408 53011 4156 1088 47767 116.8 2007 Proj. Aug : 1088 48869 4554 54511 4547 1089 48875 118.5 Sep : 1088 48933 4554 54575 4662 1089 48824 118.3 : BROILERS : 2005 : 713 34986 34 35733 5203 924 29607 85.7 2006 Proj. Aug : 924 35630 41 36595 5476 750 30369 87.1 Sep : 924 35631 41 36596 5476 750 30370 87.1 2007 Proj. Aug : 750 36184 36 36970 5595 770 30605 87.0 Sep : 750 36184 36 36970 5595 770 30605 87.0 : TURKEYS : 2005 : 288 5432 8 5728 570 206 4952 16.7 2006 Proj. Aug : 206 5575 9 5790 554 250 4986 16.7 Sep : 206 5575 9 5790 554 250 4986 16.7 2007 Proj. Aug : 250 5655 4 5909 595 280 5034 16.7 Sep : 250 5655 4 5909 595 280 5034 16.7 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2005 : 1005 40935 42 41981 5902 1132 34947 103.7 2006 Proj. Aug : 1132 41721 52 42906 6165 1005 35735 105.1 Sep : 1132 41712 52 42897 6165 1007 35724 105.0 2007 Proj. Aug : 1005 42358 41 43404 6320 1052 36032 105.0 Sep : 1007 42358 41 43406 6320 1056 36030 105.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2005 : 2192 86781 4846 93819 9274 2212 82333 220.7 2006 Proj. Aug : 2212 89348 4485 96045 10301 2093 83651 222.2 Sep : 2212 89235 4460 95907 10321 2095 83491 221.8 2007 Proj. Aug : 2093 91227 4595 97915 10867 2141 84907 223.5 Sep : 2095 91291 4595 97981 10982 2145 84854 223.3 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-438-33 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2006 Projected : 2007 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2004 : 2005 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.7 14.5 16.0 16.0 18.0 18.0 Production : 7440.0 7503.6 7582.0 7583.0 7705.0 7690.0 Imports : 12.7 9.0 8.0 8.0 8.8 8.8 Total supply : 7466.4 7527.1 7606.0 7607.0 7731.8 7716.8 : Use : Exports : 167.5 203.3 175.4 175.4 179.0 179.0 Hatching use : 988.1 999.8 994.3 994.3 990.0 990.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 16.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 Consumption : Total : 6296.3 6308.0 6418.3 6419.3 6544.8 6529.8 Per capita (number) : 257.1 255.2 257.3 257.3 260.0 259.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2006 Projected : 2007 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2004 : 2005 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.9 177.0 181.3 182.0 183.1 183.2 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.3 7.2 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.6 Marketings : 169.8 175.9 180.3 180.9 182.1 182.2 Imports : 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply : 183.4 187.7 192.7 193.4 195.4 195.9 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 7.2 8.0 8.2 8.6 7.9 7.7 CCC net removals 1/ : -0.1 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 176.4 179.7 184.5 184.8 187.5 188.2 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.2 9.0 9.0 8.4 8.6 Marketings : 169.8 175.9 180.3 180.9 182.1 182.2 Imports : 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.5 5.7 5.7 Total cml. supply : 183.1 188.6 193.9 194.4 196.2 196.5 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.2 9.0 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.6 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.3 -1.0 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.2 Commercial use 2/ : 173.7 180.6 184.6 185.0 185.9 186.7 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : -7 0 0 0 0 0 Cheese : 6 -2 0 0 0 0 Nonfat dry milk : 105 -81 75 65 130 100 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-438-34 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2006 Projected : 2007 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2004 : 2005 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.6431 1.4875 1.220- 1.230- 1.295- 1.295- : 1.240 1.250 1.395 1.395 : Butter : 1.8239 1.5405 1.210- 1.205- 1.220- 1.220- : 1.250 1.245 1.350 1.350 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8405 0.9409 0.855- 0.850- 0.815- 0.815- : 0.875 0.870 0.885 0.885 : Dry whey : 0.2319 0.2782 0.295- 0.295- 0.250- 0.250- : 0.315 0.315 0.280 0.280 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 15.39 14.05 11.50- 11.60- 12.00- 12.00- : 11.70 11.80 13.00 13.00 : Class IV : 13.20 12.87 10.75- 10.70- 10.45- 10.45- : 11.05 11.00 11.55 11.55 : All milk 3/ : 16.05 15.14 12.60- 12.65- 12.90- 12.90- : 12.80 12.85 13.90 13.90 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-438-35 Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a 25-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 9.7 million tons (1.8%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 15 times and above 10 times. Reliability of September Projections =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2005/06 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.8 9.7 -30.7 13.1 15 10 U.S. : 1.4 0.9 -1.4 2.5 9 16 Foreign : 2.0 9.6 -30.9 12.0 16 9 Exports : World : 4.3 4.9 -13.5 6.2 18 7 U.S. : 8.8 2.9 -10.0 7.2 10 15 Foreign : 5.2 4.3 -11.5 4.0 17 8 Domestic use : World : 1.4 7.6 -23.4 13.2 16 9 U.S. : 5.6 1.8 -3.7 3.6 11 14 Foreign : 1.4 7.2 -21.0 12.3 18 7 Ending stocks : World : 7.3 9.6 -28.3 14.3 19 6 U.S. : 13.7 3.1 -9.1 12.4 12 13 Foreign : 8.0 8.5 -26.0 7.4 18 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.8 16.0 -50.6 24.9 19 6 U.S. : 3.6 8.5 -21.5 26.0 18 7 Foreign : 1.9 11.5 -29.6 13.9 17 8 Exports : World : 5.1 5.3 -11.5 16.5 17 8 U.S. : 13.8 7.4 -19.0 14.5 11 14 Foreign : 12.2 6.3 -15.3 12.7 14 11 Domestic use : World : 1.3 10.8 -29.1 20.8 12 13 U.S. : 3.4 6.3 -15.8 13.2 18 7 Foreign : 1.4 8.9 -20.2 22.0 16 9 Ending stocks : World : 11.6 16.6 -43.2 24.6 19 6 U.S. : 18.5 9.3 -32.2 13.5 12 13 Foreign : 13.4 11.2 -25.8 15.2 21 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.9 6.7 -24.1 3.4 20 5 U.S. : 4.1 0.2 -0.5 0.5 14 10 Foreign : 2.0 6.7 -24.4 3.6 20 5 Exports : World : 8.3 1.6 -6.7 0.8 17 8 U.S. : 8.1 0.2 -0.9 0.9 13 10 Foreign : 9.3 1.6 -6.7 0.8 17 8 Domestic use : World : 1.4 4.7 -22.7 3.0 21 4 U.S. : 5.5 0.2 -0.4 0.4 13 11 Foreign : 1.4 4.7 -23.1 3.2 21 4 Ending stocks : World : 11.2 4.9 -14.2 5.2 21 4 U.S. : 17.2 0.2 -0.9 0.7 14 11 Foreign : 12.0 4.9 -14.2 6.1 21 4 =============================================================================== 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-438-36 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2005/06 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== SOYBEANS 4/ :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.4 4.7 -11.8 11.5 16 9 U.S. : 4.9 3.1 -8.3 5.1 13 12 Foreign : 6.1 4.7 -10.7 17.0 13 12 Exports : World : 6.2 2.4 -9.4 9.5 16 9 U.S. : 9.9 2.2 -5.3 5.5 14 11 Foreign : 16.5 2.3 -9.4 8.0 10 15 Domestic use : World : 3.1 4.2 -9.3 11.3 15 10 U.S. : 3.7 1.5 -3.8 2.7 17 8 Foreign : 4.1 3.9 -7.5 9.4 16 9 Ending stocks : World : 14.7 3.4 -12.2 6.8 15 10 U.S. : 31.0 2.4 -9.2 4.8 8 17 Foreign : 18.5 3.1 -12.0 8.6 15 9 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.3 3.0 -12.6 9.5 16 9 U.S. : 5.0 0.8 -2.3 2.4 14 10 Foreign : 3.8 2.7 -11.2 9.8 16 9 Exports : World : 5.1 1.4 -5.7 2.2 15 10 U.S. : 14.5 1.0 -2.2 2.0 15 10 Foreign : 6.1 1.2 -3.5 1.9 12 13 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.3 -7.2 3.2 11 14 U.S. : 5.7 0.5 -1.1 1.3 13 10 Foreign : 2.7 2.2 -7.1 4.0 12 12 Ending stocks : World : 11.9 4.3 -12.7 12.5 17 8 U.S. : 27.6 1.2 -2.3 2.5 10 15 Foreign : 12.4 4.0 -13.2 10.9 17 8 =============================================================================== 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2005/06 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 25 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. 4/ Global soybean supply and use projections were initially released in June 2004. Therefore, an insufficient number of observations are available to provide meaningful reliability statistics for global soybean supply and use. WASDE-438-37 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2005/06 2/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 3.9 322 -846 885 18 7 Exports : 14.6 265 -725 521 10 15 Domestic use : 3.8 244 -553 430 18 7 Ending stocks : 21.5 345 -1321 490 12 13 : SORGHUM : Production : 4.5 28 -69 81 11 13 Exports : 16.0 38 -115 97 14 11 Domestic use : 8.7 36 -114 78 12 13 Ending stocks : 35.5 43 -155 112 9 16 : BARLEY : Production : 3.4 12 -29 36 10 15 Exports : 28.8 17 -82 38 12 11 Domestic use : 7.9 27 -47 72 10 13 Ending stocks : 13.0 22 -61 70 11 14 : OATS : Production : 7.1 14 -19 44 4 20 Exports : 66.4 2 -5 8 7 10 Domestic use : 4.4 15 -39 30 9 16 Ending stocks : 14.2 16 -40 47 12 13 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.5 1120 -2846 1680 16 9 Exports : 11.9 785 -2350 1900 11 14 Domestic use : 2.9 687 -1550 1075 16 9 Ending stocks : 29.8 70 -179 368 10 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.6 538 -1473 791 14 11 Exports : 25.3 380 -1250 1219 12 13 Domestic use : 2.4 307 -985 450 18 7 Ending stocks : 27.5 442 -1333 1143 11 14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.0 981 -727 2486 16 7 Pork : 2.3 383 -1315 1242 13 10 Broilers : 1.9 474 -1337 1063 16 7 Turkeys : 2.2 96 -444 235 15 8 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.3 83 -111 188 16 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.4 2.2 -7.2 6.8 13 10 =============================================================================== 1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2005/06 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 25 for crops and 23 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2005 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS.