ISSN: 1554-9089 WASDE-423 June 10, 2005 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2005/06 ending stocks of wheat are down 59 million bushels from last month due to smaller beginning stocks and lower production. Beginning stocks are down 14 million bushels with higher projected food use and exports for 2004/05. Forecast winter wheat production is 45 million bushels less than last month because of lower yields. Projected use is unchanged from last month but is down 131 million bushels from last year. The 2005/06 projected price range is $2.65 to $3.15 per bushel, up 10 cents on each end from last month compared with an estimated $3.39 for 2004/05. The 2005/06 global wheat outlook has shifted modestly from last month with projected production falling, imports increasing, and stocks declining. Foreign production is down 1.6 million tons due mostly to smaller crops in Australia (down 1.5 million), the EU-25, Argentina, India, and Morocco. These declines are partially offset by larger crops in Russia (up 2 million tons) and Turkey. Projected global imports are up fractionally, mostly due to larger imports by Morocco, Tunisia, and Nigeria. The pattern of global exports has shifted from last month with larger exports projected for Russia and Turkey and smaller exports for Australia, Argentina, and India. Global consumption rises fractionally due largely to increased wheat feeding in Russia. Global wheat stocks fall with the largest declines in the United States and Australia. COARSE GRAINS: Except for small increases to U.S. barley exports and oat imports, no other changes are projected for 2004/05 feedgrains relative to last month. Similarly, the outlook for 2005/06 is unchanged from last month for production, use, and prices. The 2005/06 projected price range for corn is $1.55 to $1.95, compared with $2.00 to $2.10 for 2004/05. The most noteworthy change in the global outlook for 2004/05 is in Brazil with a 2-million-ton reduction in the corn crop, lower imports, smaller feed use and exports, and a 0.4-million-ton drop in ending stocks. The global outlook for 2005/06 is for decreased coarse grains production, lower use, and a moderate drop in stocks relative to last month. Smaller crops are projected in Ukraine (down 1.5 million tons), Russia (down 1 million), Argentina and Australia (each down 0.5 million), and several other countries. Global coarse grain use in 2005/06 is down fractionally with the largest declines occurring in Russia, Ukraine, and Australia. Consumption is up in Egypt, Iran, and Tunisia. Global imports are down slightly as smaller imports by Turkey, Russia, Indonesia, and Chile are only partially offset by larger imports by Egypt, Morocco, Brazil, and Iran. Exports from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and Kazakstan are lower while exports by the EU-25 and South Africa rise. Global ending stocks drop just over 2 million tons with the largest declines occurring in Russia, Ukraine, and Australia. Stocks are up in Iran, Egypt, Tunisia, and several other countries. RICE: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2005/06 supply and use balance while only minor changes are made on the use side. The export projection is raised 1 million cwt to 121 million cwt because of an increase in the combined medium- and short-grain export projection. Tight supplies in Australia (medium- grain exporter), because of drought and below normal irrigation supplies, likely will translate into larger export opportunities for U.S. rice in markets in the Middle East and Oceania. The domestic and residual use projection is unchanged from a month ago. Ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 31.7 million cwt, 1 million cwt below last month. The season-average farm price range for 2005/06 is unchanged at $7.20 to $7.50 per cwt compared to $7.20 to $7.40 per cwt for 2004/05. Slight changes are made to global supply and use projections for 2005/06. World production is projected at a record 410.4 million tons, up less than 100,000 tons from last month but 8.6 million tons above 2004/05. Global ending stocks in 2005/06 are projected at 67.3 million tons, the lowest stocks since 1982/83. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 89.2 million tons, unchanged from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 2,895 million bushels, or 78.8 million tons. A projected decrease in 2004/05 soybean ending stocks this month for South America is expected to provide increased U.S. export opportunities. As a result, 2005/06 U.S. soybean exports are increased 10 million bushels to 1,135 million bushels. Prospects for increased exports and reduced soybean supplies result in a slight decrease in soybean crush from last month. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 255 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2005/06 is projected at $4.95 to $5.95 per bushel, up 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $160 to $190 per short ton, up $10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 20.5 to 23.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range. Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 377.0 million tons, down 4.1 million tons (1 percent) from 2004/05. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 287.8 million tons, up 3.2 million tons from 2004/05. Global soybean production is projected to increase 3.4 million tons to a record 219.7 million tons. Although U.S. soybean production is expected to decline from last year's record level, a rebound in yields and production in Brazil will push South American soybean production to a record 108 million tons, accounting for just below half of 2005/06 global production. The Brazilian soybean crop is projected at a record 62 million tons, up 17 percent from the drought-reduced 2004/05 crop. Global production of high-oil content seed is down 5 percent as lower rapeseed production is only partly offset by increased sunflowerseed production. Rapeseed production is projected lower for China, the EU-25, Canada, and India. Sunflowerseed production is higher for Ukraine as producers expand plantings from 2004/05. Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3 percent in 2005/06, primarily due to gains for soybean meal. Protein meal consumption in China is projected to increase 8 percent, with a 15 percent increase in soybean meal more than offsetting decreased consumption of rapeseed and cottonseed meal. World soybean trade increases 7 percent to 65.6 million tons, nearly all of which is due to higher imports for China to a record 27.0 million tons. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 5 percent for 2005/06 led by gains for China, India, and the EU-25. Global oilseed crush is projected to increase 3 percent, and oilseed stocks are projected to increase 3.5 million tons to a record 58.2 million tons. Changes for 2004/05 for the U.S. include increased soybean crush and exports and reduced ending stocks. Global soybean ending stocks are also reduced, reflecting the effect of reduced Brazil soybean production for 2003/04. The crop is reduced from 52.6 million tons to 50.5 million tons based on analysis of crush and trade statistics for the marketing year. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply and use for fiscal year 2005/06 are unchanged from a month ago. Year-ending stocks are 759,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 and 2006 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. It is assumed that the current delay in the implementation of the minimal-risk rule is temporary. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. The total U.S. meat production forecast for 2005 is increased slightly. Beef production is raised marginally, reflecting slightly higher slaughter in the second quarter. The pork production forecast is raised slightly because slaughter weights are expected to be heavier than previously projected as weights have been running higher so far this year. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled for release June 24, will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions into 2006. Broiler production is forecast higher than last month as production to date has been revised upward and increases in hatch and weights are expected to carry forward through the year. Egg production is forecast lower than last month as the growth of laying flocks has slowed. Egg production forecasts for 2006 are unchanged. Livestock and poultry prices are forecast weaker in the second quarter of 2005 based on prices to date. Except for eggs, forecasts for other quarters of 2005 and 2006 are unchanged. Egg price forecasts are lower. Milk production in 2005 and 2006 is forecast higher than last month as recent good returns are expected to result in increased cow numbers. The recent Milk Production report indicated that cow numbers are above 2004 and producers are expected to expand herds through 2006. Larger supplies of milk are expected to pressure butter and cheese prices, but strong exports continue to support nonfat dry milk prices. The nonfat dry milk price forecasts for both 2005 and 2006 are raised, which helps support increased Class IV prices even in the face of lower butter price forecasts. The cheese price forecast is raised in 2005 because current cheese prices are higher than expected, resulting in a slightly higher Class III price. But the cheese price forecast for 2006 is reduced in the face of larger milk production, lowering the Class III price next year. The all milk price for 2005 is slightly higher at $14.80 to $15.20 per cwt, but the 2006 forecast is lowered to $13.05 to $14.05 per cwt. COTTON: This month's 2005/06 U.S. projections include larger beginning stocks that are more than offset by larger exports, leaving ending stocks marginally lower. The production forecast is unchanged from last month, as is domestic mill use. With larger U.S. supplies and slightly reduced foreign supplies, U.S. exports are raised 500,000 bales to a record 15.0 million, accounting for a slightly higher share of world trade relative to last month. Ending stocks are now projected at 6.2 million bales, or 30 percent of total use. The 2005/06 world projections show only slight revisions from last month. World production of 106.2 million bales is reduced marginally, while consumption and trade are nearly unchanged. World ending stocks are projected lower by about just over 1.0 million bales to 44.1 million, due to reduced estimates of beginning stocks and production. For 2004/05, U.S. exports are reduced 400,000 bales to 13.0 million based on slower than expected shipments to date, thereby raising ending stocks by a like amount. The lower U.S. exports are associated with a 1.5-million-bale reduction in estimated imports by China, also reflecting activity to date. Lower imports by China and Thailand in 2004/05 are partially offset by increases for India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey. U.S. domestic mill use is reduced 268,000 to 6.2 million bales in 2003/04, based on recent revisions by the Bureau of the Census. Ending stocks are unchanged. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: CHARLES F. CONNER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 12, 2005. In 2005, the WASDE report will be released on July 12, Aug. 12, Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 10, and Dec. 9. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. 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WASDE-423-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 1,857.56 2,300.94 240.25 1,947.81 353.13 2004/05 (Est.) : 2,033.42 2,386.55 230.58 1,989.46 397.09 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 1,980.18 2,378.94 230.82 2,000.58 378.36 June : 1,973.64 2,370.72 229.63 1,999.08 371.64 Wheat : 2003/04 : 553.92 719.70 109.47 588.72 130.98 2004/05 (Est.) : 624.51 755.49 106.92 606.01 149.48 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 615.21 764.77 108.17 617.33 147.44 June : 612.42 761.90 107.37 617.65 144.25 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 914.17 1,081.45 103.71 945.45 136.00 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,007.15 1,143.15 98.61 969.34 173.81 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 954.65 1,129.06 98.20 966.67 162.39 June : 950.84 1,124.65 97.75 964.62 160.04 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 389.47 499.79 27.07 413.64 86.15 2004/05 (Est.) : 401.77 487.92 25.06 414.12 73.80 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 410.31 485.11 24.45 416.59 68.53 June : 410.37 484.17 24.51 416.82 67.35 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 345.33 395.14 88.61 262.13 44.40 2004/05 (Est.) : 385.60 434.56 82.92 274.38 77.26 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 362.93 445.12 84.14 271.71 89.27 June : 361.71 443.48 84.18 271.71 87.59 Wheat : 2003/04 : 63.81 78.90 31.56 32.48 14.87 2004/05 (Est.) : 58.74 75.54 28.85 32.35 14.34 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 59.46 76.09 25.86 31.79 18.45 June : 58.24 74.49 25.86 31.79 16.85 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 275.10 308.49 53.72 226.01 28.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 319.45 350.40 50.67 238.08 61.65 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 296.32 360.16 54.48 235.91 69.78 June : 296.32 360.12 54.48 235.91 69.74 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 6.42 7.74 3.33 3.65 0.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 7.41 8.61 3.40 3.95 1.26 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 7.14 8.86 3.81 4.02 1.04 June : 7.14 8.87 3.84 4.02 1.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-423-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 1,512.23 1,905.80 151.65 1,685.67 308.73 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,647.83 1,952.00 147.66 1,715.08 319.83 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 1,617.25 1,933.82 146.68 1,728.88 289.09 June : 1,611.93 1,927.25 145.45 1,727.37 284.05 Wheat : 2003/04 : 490.11 640.80 77.92 556.24 116.11 2004/05 (Est.) : 565.77 679.94 78.07 573.66 135.14 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 555.75 688.68 82.32 585.54 128.99 June : 554.18 687.41 81.52 585.86 127.41 Coarse grains 5/ : 2003/04 : 639.07 772.96 49.99 719.44 107.24 2004/05 (Est.) : 687.69 792.74 47.94 731.26 112.16 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 658.33 768.89 43.72 730.76 92.61 June : 654.52 764.53 43.27 728.71 90.30 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 383.05 492.04 23.74 409.99 85.39 2004/05 (Est.) : 394.36 479.31 21.65 410.17 72.54 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 403.17 476.25 20.64 412.57 67.49 June : 403.23 475.30 20.67 412.80 66.34 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2003/04 : 95.10 134.70 33.07 98.29 37.34 2004/05 (Est.) : 119.61 156.94 33.34 108.06 48.74 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 107.00 156.07 39.00 111.50 45.17 June : 106.19 154.93 38.89 111.53 44.05 : United States 2003/04 : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.22 3.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 23.25 26.79 13.00 6.30 7.50 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 19.50 26.64 14.50 5.80 6.30 June : 19.50 27.04 15.00 5.80 6.20 : Foreign 3/ 2003/04 : 76.85 111.02 19.31 92.07 33.83 2004/05 (Est.) : 96.36 130.16 20.34 101.76 41.24 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 87.50 129.43 24.50 105.70 38.87 June : 86.69 127.89 23.89 105.73 37.85 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-423-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 334.29 379.15 66.81 278.41 40.05 2004/05 (Est.) : 381.05 421.10 71.99 299.75 54.70 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 378.00 435.58 June : 376.96 431.66 77.13 307.25 58.24 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 189.68 195.19 57.51 189.49 4.79 2004/05 (Est.) : 203.10 207.89 58.28 202.32 4.91 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : June : 209.41 214.32 59.68 208.81 4.96 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 100.51 107.33 38.40 98.44 6.82 2004/05 (Est.) : 107.91 114.73 40.29 105.50 7.25 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : June : 111.42 118.68 42.57 110.38 6.96 : : United States Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 76.60 82.94 24.98 45.53 4.15 2004/05 (Est.) : 96.44 101.27 31.05 49.54 9.88 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 89.21 100.85 31.57 50.31 9.07 June : 89.21 99.62 31.83 50.04 8.11 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 35.21 37.27 4.20 32.80 0.27 2004/05 (Est.) : 38.37 40.13 5.78 34.04 0.31 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 38.84 40.61 5.99 34.34 0.28 June : 38.69 40.48 5.52 34.67 0.30 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 8.77 11.60 0.74 10.06 0.80 2004/05 (Est.) : 9.56 12.09 0.86 10.25 0.98 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 9.72 12.33 0.99 10.48 0.85 June : 9.65 12.33 0.94 10.41 0.98 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 257.69 296.21 41.84 232.88 35.90 2004/05 (Est.) : 284.61 319.83 40.94 250.21 44.82 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 288.79 334.73 June : 287.76 332.04 45.30 257.21 50.13 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 154.47 157.92 53.31 156.69 4.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 164.73 167.76 52.50 168.28 4.60 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : June : 170.72 173.84 54.16 174.14 4.66 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 91.75 95.74 37.65 88.38 6.03 2004/05 (Est.) : 98.35 102.65 39.42 95.25 6.28 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : June : 101.77 106.35 41.62 99.97 5.98 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-423-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.1 59.7 58.6 * 58.6 * Harvested : 53.1 50.0 51.2 * 51.2 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 44.2 43.2 42.7 * 41.8 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 491 546 541 527 Production : 2,345 2,158 2,185 2,140 Imports : 63 71 70 70 Supply, total : 2,899 2,776 2,796 2,737 Food : 907 895 890 890 Seed : 80 79 78 78 Feed and residual : 207 215 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,193 1,189 1,168 1,168 Exports : 1,159 1,060 950 950 Use, total : 2,353 2,249 2,118 2,118 Ending stocks : 546 527 678 619 CCC inventory : 61 54 Free stocks : 485 473 Outstanding loans : 37 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.39 2.55- 3.05 2.65- 3.15 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total ============================================================================ 2004/05 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 26 546 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 691 465 389 145 2,776 Domestic use : 517 244 255 94 79 1,189 Exports : 391 310 121 208 30 1,060 Use, total : 908 554 376 302 109 2,249 Ending stocks Jun : 176 137 90 87 36 527 May : 180 138 84 95 43 541 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For May and June, planted acres reported in March 31, 2005, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using 10-year average harvested-to-planted ratios and projected yield derived from 1985-2004 trend yield. For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June 10 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2005/06 will first be published * * in the July 12 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-423-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.0 97.0 97.1 * 97.1 * Harvested : 85.7 86.0 86.2 * 86.2 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.21 3.71 3.44 3.44 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 30.9 28.7 61.7 61.6 Production : 274.9 319.2 296.1 296.1 Imports : 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 Supply, total : 308.2 350.0 359.8 359.8 Feed and residual : 156.0 162.1 157.2 157.2 Food, seed & industrial : 69.7 75.7 78.4 78.4 Domestic, total : 225.7 237.7 235.6 235.6 Exports : 53.7 50.7 54.5 54.5 Use, total : 279.4 288.4 290.1 290.1 Ending stocks, total : 28.7 61.6 69.8 69.7 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 28.7 61.6 Outstanding loans : 4.4 7.1 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.6 80.9 81.4 * 81.4 * Harvested : 70.9 73.6 74.2 * 74.2 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 142.2 160.4 148.0 * 148.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,087 958 2,215 2,215 Production : 10,089 11,807 10,985 10,985 Imports : 14 10 10 10 Supply, total : 11,190 12,775 13,210 13,210 Feed and residual : 5,798 6,000 5,850 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 2,537 2,760 2,870 2,870 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,168 1,400 1,500 1,500 Domestic, total : 8,335 8,760 8,720 8,720 Exports : 1,897 1,800 1,950 1,950 Use, total : 10,232 10,560 10,670 10,670 Ending stocks, total : 958 2,215 2,540 2,540 CCC inventory : 0 1 Free stocks : 958 2,214 Outstanding loans : 164 275 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.42 2.00- 2.10 1.55- 1.95 1.55- 1.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of corn use including fuel alcohol see the ERS Feed Outlook table 5, or ERS feed grain data at http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/. Under "Custom" select data type: supply and use. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For May and June, planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 2005, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected based on the relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2004 omitting 2002. Projected yield derived from a linear trend fit over 1960-2004 (1988 omitted), adjusted for 2005 planting progress. WASDE-423-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.4 7.5 7.4 * 7.4 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.8 6.5 6.4 * 6.4 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 52.7 69.8 63.7 * 63.7 * Beginning stocks : 43 34 66 66 Production : 411 455 405 405 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 454 488 471 471 Feed and residual : 180 195 170 170 Food, seed & industrial : 40 52 53 53 Total domestic : 220 247 223 223 Exports : 201 175 180 180 Use, total : 421 422 403 403 Ending stocks, total : 34 66 68 68 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.39 1.65- 1.75 1.35- 1.75 1.35- 1.75 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.3 4.5 4.0 * 4.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.0 3.5 * 3.5 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 69.4 63.6 * 63.6 * Beginning stocks : 69 120 135 131 Production : 278 279 225 225 Imports : 21 12 15 15 Supply, total : 368 412 375 371 Feed and residual : 84 115 100 100 Food, seed & industrial : 145 145 140 140 Total domestic : 229 260 240 240 Exports : 19 21 15 15 Use, total : 248 281 255 255 Ending stocks, total : 120 131 120 116 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.83 2.50 1.95- 2.35 1.95- 2.35 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.6 4.1 4.3 * 4.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.2 1.8 2.0 * 2.0 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 65.0 64.7 63.5 * 63.5 * Beginning stocks : 50 65 54 57 Production : 144 116 130 130 Imports : 90 88 85 85 Supply, total : 285 269 269 272 Feed and residual : 144 135 130 130 Food, seed & industrial : 73 74 74 74 Total domestic : 217 209 204 204 Exports : 2 3 3 3 Use, total : 220 212 207 207 Ending stocks, total : 65 57 62 65 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.48 1.00- 1.40 1.00- 1.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2005, Prospective Plantings. Harvested Area-- For Sorghum harvested acres is the five year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 1999-2004 (excluding 2002). For barley and oats harvested acres is the five year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 1999-2004 (excluding 2002). Yield-- For sorghum 10 year average yield (1995-2004, excluding 2002). For barley and oats projected yield derived from 1960-2004 trend yield with oat yield adjusted for rounding. WASDE-423-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.02 3.35 3.36 * 3.36 * Harvested : 3.00 3.32 3.33 * 3.33 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,670 6,942 6,751 * 6,751 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 26.8 23.7 39.4 39.4 Production : 199.9 230.8 225.0 225.0 Imports : 15.6 14.0 14.5 14.5 Supply, total : 242.2 268.5 278.9 278.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 114.9 123.1 126.2 126.2 Exports, total 4/ : 103.7 106.0 120.0 121.0 Rough : 34.4 30.0 33.0 33.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 69.3 76.0 87.0 88.0 Use, total : 218.6 229.1 246.2 247.2 Ending stocks : 23.7 39.4 32.7 31.7 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.8 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.08 7.20- 7.40 7.20- 7.50 7.20- 7.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.57 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,451 6,569 Beginning stocks : 15.7 10.3 24.0 25.0 Production : 149.0 168.9 172.0 172.0 Supply, total 7/ : 174.5 190.2 207.5 208.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 83.4 86.2 91.0 91.0 Exports 8/ : 80.7 79.0 93.0 93.0 Use, total : 164.2 165.2 184.0 184.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 25.0 23.5 24.5 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.75 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,407 8,212 Beginning stocks : 9.3 12.4 14.3 13.3 Production : 50.9 61.9 53.0 53.0 Supply, total 7/ : 66.8 77.3 70.3 69.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 31.4 37.0 35.2 35.2 Exports 8/ : 23.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 Use, total : 54.4 64.0 62.2 63.2 Ending stocks : 12.4 13.3 8.1 6.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2005 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres are estimated using average harvested-to-planted ratios by class of rice, 2000-2004. Projected yield derived from a linear trend fit over 1990-2004. WASDE-423-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.4 75.2 73.9 * 73.9 * Harvested : 72.5 74.0 72.6 * 72.6 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 33.9 42.5 39.9 * 39.9 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 178 112 355 320 Production : 2,454 3,141 2,895 2,895 Imports : 6 5 3 3 Supply, total : 2,638 3,258 3,253 3,218 Crushings : 1,530 1,675 1,690 1,680 Exports : 880 1,110 1,125 1,135 Seed : 92 89 91 91 Residual : 24 64 58 58 Use, total : 2,525 2,938 2,964 2,964 Ending stocks : 112 320 290 255 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.34 5.70 4.70- 5.70 4.95 - 5.95 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,491 1,076 1,241 1,526 Production : 17,080 19,045 19,065 18,950 Imports : 306 105 110 110 Supply, total : 18,877 20,226 20,416 20,586 Domestic : 16,866 17,300 17,650 17,650 Exports : 935 1,400 1,500 1,400 Use, total : 17,801 18,700 19,150 19,050 Ending stocks : 1,076 1,526 1,266 1,536 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 29.97 22.75 20.00- 20.50- : 23.00 23.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 220 211 250 250 Production : 36,324 39,874 40,235 40,035 Imports : 270 165 165 165 Supply, total : 36,815 40,250 40,650 40,450 Domestic : 32,250 33,900 34,000 34,400 Exports : 4,354 6,100 6,400 5,800 Use, total : 36,604 40,000 40,400 40,200 Ending stocks : 211 250 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 256.05 180.00 150.00- 160.00- : 180.00 190.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. *Planted acres reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted-to-harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2004 regional trend. WASDE-423-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :====================== : : : May June ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,343 1,343 Production 2/ : 8,649 8,067 8,140 8,140 Beet sugar : 4,692 4,693 4,370 4,370 Cane sugar : 3,957 3,374 3,770 3,770 Florida : 2,154 1,684 1,950 1,950 Hawaii : 251 269 250 250 Louisiana : 1,377 1,263 1,400 1,400 Texas : 175 158 170 170 Imports : 1,754 1,639 1,591 1,591 TRQ 3/ : 1,230 1,229 1,206 1,206 Other program 4/ : 464 350 325 325 Other 5/ : 60 60 60 60 Supply, total : 12,073 11,603 11,074 11,074 : Exports : 288 240 200 200 Deliveries : 9,862 10,020 10,115 10,115 Food : 9,678 9,875 9,950 9,950 Other 6/ : 184 145 165 165 Miscellaneous 7/ : 26 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,176 10,260 10,315 10,315 Ending stocks : 1,897 1,343 759 759 Stocks to use ratio : 18.6 13.1 7.4 7.4 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2005/06 are based on March 31 Prospective Plantings and trend yields. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2005/06, includes only the U.S. commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Includes high-tier and other. 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-423-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.48 13.66 13.82 * 13.82 * Harvested : 12.00 13.06 12.57 * 12.57 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 730 855 745 * 745 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 5.39 3.51 7.10 7.50 Production : 18.26 23.25 19.50 19.50 Imports : 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 23.69 26.79 26.64 27.04 Domestic use : 6.22 6.30 5.80 5.80 Exports : 13.76 13.00 14.50 15.00 Use, total : 19.98 19.30 20.30 20.80 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.20 -0.01 0.04 0.04 Ending stocks : 3.51 7.50 6.30 6.20 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 61.8 42.8 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2004/05 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-April. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on 2002-2004 U.S. average abandonment. Projected yield per harvested acre based on 2002-2004 U.S. average yield per harvested acre. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2004/05 is 40.5 percent. WASDE-423-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 165.78 553.92 101.99 96.87 588.72 109.47 130.98 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.72 5.64 32.48 31.56 14.87 Total foreign : 152.41 490.11 100.27 91.24 556.24 77.92 116.11 Major exporters 4/ : 27.04 170.69 6.22 57.55 126.73 54.16 23.06 Argentina : 1.53 14.00 0.00 0.08 5.23 9.41 0.90 Australia : 3.14 26.23 0.07 3.23 5.96 18.03 5.46 Canada : 5.73 23.55 0.23 3.44 7.64 15.79 6.08 EU-25 5/ : 16.64 106.90 5.91 50.80 107.90 10.93 10.63 Major importers 6/ : 78.87 149.06 51.89 9.97 210.64 6.80 62.38 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.18 0.20 9.80 1.38 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.85 17.99 7.95 1.30 26.22 1.00 5.56 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.29 15.48 0.30 30.08 0.17 7.47 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 10.09 1.32 9.20 0.32 2.15 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 16.48 60.91 7.11 17.58 65.65 7.85 11.00 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.03 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.65 Kazakhstan : 3.67 11.00 0.01 2.70 6.80 4.11 3.78 Ukraine : 3.25 3.60 3.37 0.43 9.03 0.07 1.13 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 130.98 624.51 106.39 106.54 606.01 106.92 149.48 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.93 5.85 32.35 28.85 14.34 Total foreign : 116.11 565.77 104.46 100.69 573.66 78.07 135.14 Major exporters 4/ : 23.06 200.03 7.04 63.98 134.60 54.70 40.83 Argentina : 0.90 16.00 0.01 0.08 5.30 10.50 1.11 Australia : 5.46 21.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 15.70 5.73 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.25 5.00 9.20 15.00 7.99 EU-25 5/ : 10.63 136.67 6.70 56.00 114.50 13.50 26.00 Major importers 6/ : 62.38 153.89 59.25 8.44 212.36 3.05 60.11 Brazil : 0.51 5.85 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.05 1.20 China : 43.29 91.00 7.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.16 9.50 1.90 27.54 0.60 5.09 N. Africa 8/ : 7.47 16.62 16.90 0.30 31.93 0.21 8.85 Pakistan : 1.58 19.00 1.50 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.53 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.15 0.00 9.75 1.11 9.40 0.29 2.21 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 72.88 2.00 4.10 FSU-12 : 11.00 86.43 4.09 21.11 72.73 13.46 15.33 Russia : 2.65 45.30 1.20 14.00 38.00 6.30 4.85 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.20 2.20 11.80 4.20 2.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-423-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 149.55 615.21 103.74 111.04 617.33 108.17 147.44 June : 149.48 612.42 103.94 112.34 617.65 107.37 144.25 United States : May : 14.72 59.46 1.91 5.44 31.79 25.86 18.45 June : 14.34 58.24 1.91 5.44 31.79 25.86 16.85 Total foreign : May : 134.83 555.75 101.83 105.60 585.54 82.32 128.99 June : 135.14 554.18 102.03 106.90 585.86 81.52 127.41 Major exporters 4/ : May : 39.78 189.50 6.34 67.48 138.60 58.50 38.52 June : 40.83 186.75 6.34 67.78 138.90 57.00 38.02 Argentina May : 1.11 15.50 0.01 0.08 5.30 10.50 0.82 Jun : 1.11 15.00 0.01 0.08 5.30 10.00 0.82 Australia May : 5.43 23.00 0.08 3.10 5.80 16.50 6.21 Jun : 5.73 21.50 0.08 3.40 6.10 15.50 5.71 Canada May : 7.94 23.50 0.25 4.30 8.50 15.50 7.69 Jun : 7.99 23.50 0.25 4.30 8.50 15.50 7.74 EU-25 5/ May : 25.30 127.50 6.00 60.00 119.00 16.00 23.80 Jun : 26.00 126.75 6.00 60.00 119.00 16.00 23.75 Major importers 6/ : May : 60.10 155.42 56.45 8.10 213.24 3.14 55.59 June : 60.11 154.67 56.75 8.10 213.14 3.14 55.24 Brazil May : 1.38 5.00 5.20 0.20 10.20 0.05 1.33 Jun : 1.20 4.80 5.20 0.20 10.20 0.05 0.95 China May : 38.29 93.00 4.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 33.29 Jun : 38.29 93.00 4.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 33.29 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 5.09 18.33 10.30 2.00 27.39 0.60 5.73 Jun : 5.09 18.33 10.30 2.00 27.39 0.60 5.73 N. Africa 8/ May : 8.62 14.03 17.40 0.30 32.73 0.21 7.11 Jun : 8.85 13.48 17.70 0.30 32.83 0.21 6.99 Pakistan May : 2.53 21.00 0.50 0.40 20.00 0.05 3.98 Jun : 2.53 21.00 0.50 0.40 20.00 0.05 3.98 SE Asia 9/ May : 2.21 0.00 9.75 1.18 9.65 0.28 2.03 Jun : 2.21 0.00 9.75 1.18 9.65 0.28 2.03 Selected other : India May : 4.50 74.00 0.02 0.50 73.02 1.00 4.50 Jun : 4.10 73.50 0.02 0.50 73.02 0.50 4.10 FSU-12 May : 15.53 86.75 3.99 22.81 75.23 15.26 15.78 Jun : 15.33 88.67 3.99 23.81 76.23 16.26 15.50 Russia May : 4.85 45.00 1.20 15.00 39.00 7.00 5.05 Jun : 4.85 47.00 1.20 16.00 40.00 8.00 5.05 Kazakhstan May : 3.64 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.40 4.00 3.76 Jun : 3.64 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.40 4.00 3.76 Ukraine May : 3.03 16.70 0.20 3.00 13.00 4.00 2.93 Jun : 2.83 16.70 0.20 3.00 13.00 4.00 2.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-423-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 167.28 914.17 101.32 614.76 945.45 103.71 136.00 United States : 30.94 275.10 2.45 156.08 226.01 53.72 28.76 Total foreign : 136.34 639.07 98.87 458.67 719.44 49.99 107.24 Major exporters 4/ : 7.87 70.09 2.48 33.90 47.07 22.91 10.46 Argentina : 1.04 18.60 0.05 4.95 7.31 11.31 1.07 Australia : 1.20 14.81 0.00 5.47 6.70 7.22 2.09 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.09 19.21 23.81 3.64 4.10 Major importers 5/ : 37.94 195.31 79.36 205.62 274.82 5.50 32.30 EU-25 6/ : 21.50 122.91 8.13 101.94 135.47 4.39 12.68 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.15 37.23 0.01 5.59 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 3.77 26.03 15.97 34.20 40.73 0.35 4.69 Saudi Arabia : 2.65 0.20 8.42 8.65 8.84 0.00 2.43 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.04 15.50 3.92 12.73 18.04 0.75 1.67 South Korea : 1.29 0.30 8.99 6.78 9.14 0.00 1.43 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.53 99.46 139.20 7.72 45.61 Other Europe : 3.11 18.84 1.38 17.26 20.86 0.36 2.11 FSU-12 : 11.98 55.42 1.46 39.24 56.61 6.09 6.16 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.95 21.53 33.25 2.47 2.93 Ukraine : 2.65 15.60 0.14 10.50 13.80 2.77 1.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 136.00 1007.15 97.92 633.07 969.34 98.61 173.81 United States : 28.76 319.45 2.18 162.19 238.08 50.67 61.65 Total foreign : 107.24 687.69 95.74 470.88 731.26 47.94 112.16 Major exporters 4/ : 10.46 73.84 2.64 35.56 49.31 24.51 13.11 Argentina : 1.07 23.90 0.01 6.45 9.06 14.51 1.42 Australia : 2.09 10.96 0.00 5.11 6.34 5.17 1.54 Canada : 4.10 26.44 2.30 19.47 24.27 2.80 5.78 Major importers 5/ : 32.30 223.13 73.96 211.57 281.93 4.70 42.75 EU-25 6/ : 12.68 150.58 3.11 106.16 139.54 4.01 22.82 Japan : 2.15 0.20 19.94 15.41 20.24 0.00 2.05 Mexico : 5.59 29.08 9.35 22.48 38.65 0.01 5.36 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.69 26.78 17.70 36.10 43.30 0.11 5.75 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 7.10 6.83 7.01 0.00 2.72 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.67 15.87 3.27 13.00 18.81 0.58 1.43 South Korea : 1.43 0.34 8.66 7.09 9.52 0.00 0.91 Selected other : China : 45.61 137.05 1.91 100.60 142.35 6.08 36.14 Other Europe : 2.11 28.87 0.80 19.35 24.68 2.34 4.76 FSU-12 : 6.16 62.86 1.37 38.02 54.50 7.69 8.20 Russia : 2.93 29.55 1.00 19.10 29.45 1.00 3.03 Ukraine : 1.82 23.00 0.07 11.35 15.20 6.51 3.19 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-423-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 174.40 954.65 96.61 628.29 966.67 98.20 162.39 June : 173.81 950.84 96.17 626.82 964.62 97.75 160.04 United States : May : 61.70 296.32 2.15 157.30 235.91 54.48 69.78 June : 61.65 296.32 2.15 157.30 235.91 54.48 69.74 Total foreign : May : 112.71 658.33 94.47 471.00 730.76 43.72 92.61 June : 112.16 654.52 94.03 469.53 728.71 43.27 90.30 Major exporters 4/ : May : 13.35 70.20 2.13 35.84 49.91 23.56 12.21 June : 13.11 69.07 2.13 35.45 49.40 23.56 11.36 Argentina May : 1.41 23.15 0.00 6.65 9.26 14.01 1.29 Jun : 1.42 22.65 0.00 6.66 9.27 13.51 1.28 Australia May : 1.79 10.56 0.00 5.04 6.44 4.47 1.43 Jun : 1.54 10.06 0.00 4.74 5.99 4.47 1.13 Canada May : 5.78 26.50 1.86 19.71 24.61 3.55 5.97 Jun : 5.78 26.37 1.86 19.61 24.54 3.75 5.72 Major importers 5/ : May : 42.90 203.65 73.76 208.57 279.05 5.20 36.07 June : 42.75 204.05 73.72 209.27 279.65 5.50 35.37 EU-25 6/ May : 22.82 132.98 3.14 102.15 135.59 4.86 18.49 Jun : 22.82 132.98 3.14 102.15 135.59 5.16 18.19 Japan May : 2.05 0.19 19.84 15.36 20.19 0.00 1.89 Jun : 2.05 0.19 19.84 15.36 20.19 0.00 1.89 Mexico May : 5.36 28.83 9.55 22.78 39.20 0.01 4.53 Jun : 5.36 28.83 9.55 22.78 39.20 0.01 4.53 N Afr/M.East 7/May : 5.60 24.77 16.18 35.28 42.23 0.01 4.31 Jun : 5.75 25.17 16.34 36.08 42.94 0.01 4.31 Saudi Arabia May : 2.72 0.20 7.60 7.63 7.81 0.00 2.71 Jun : 2.72 0.20 7.60 7.63 7.81 0.00 2.71 S.-east Asia 8/May : 1.73 16.27 3.71 13.88 19.74 0.33 1.64 Jun : 1.43 16.27 3.51 13.78 19.64 0.33 1.24 South Korea May : 0.91 0.35 9.01 7.04 9.47 0.00 0.79 Jun : 0.91 0.35 9.01 7.04 9.47 0.00 0.79 Selected other : China May : 36.14 135.70 2.01 101.90 144.50 3.10 26.25 Jun : 36.14 135.70 2.01 101.90 144.50 3.10 26.25 Other Europe May : 4.85 24.68 0.85 19.46 24.59 2.35 3.44 Jun : 4.76 24.68 0.85 19.41 24.54 2.35 3.40 FSU-12 May : 7.95 56.39 1.70 36.47 53.27 6.07 6.70 Jun : 8.20 53.24 1.30 34.72 51.37 5.67 5.70 Russia May : 3.03 28.60 1.25 18.50 29.10 0.81 2.98 Jun : 3.03 27.60 0.85 17.60 28.20 0.81 2.48 Ukraine May : 3.09 18.20 0.09 10.15 14.00 4.98 2.40 Jun : 3.19 16.70 0.09 9.65 13.30 4.68 2.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-423-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 123.60 623.76 76.66 444.43 647.21 77.13 100.15 United States : 27.60 256.28 0.36 147.27 211.72 48.18 24.34 Total foreign : 95.99 367.48 76.30 297.15 435.48 28.96 75.81 Major exporters 4/ : 2.97 24.70 0.25 6.88 13.08 11.67 3.18 Argentina : 0.53 15.00 0.04 2.80 4.40 10.94 0.22 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.22 4.08 8.68 0.73 2.96 Major importers 5/ : 13.44 82.89 49.61 91.27 130.97 1.20 13.78 Egypt : 0.20 5.74 3.74 8.00 9.50 0.00 0.18 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.86 5.75 36.01 46.81 0.46 3.17 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.71 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.34 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.37 3.89 12.60 17.90 0.73 1.66 South Korea : 1.29 0.07 8.78 6.60 8.71 0.00 1.43 Selected other : Brazil : 4.80 42.00 0.35 33.00 38.60 4.44 4.11 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.04 8.74 11.24 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 97.00 128.40 7.55 44.85 Other Europe : 2.58 15.13 0.91 14.35 16.67 0.34 1.61 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.54 0.64 9.56 11.05 1.31 1.35 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 100.15 706.29 74.30 464.32 678.45 74.73 127.99 United States : 24.34 299.92 0.25 152.41 222.51 45.72 56.27 Total foreign : 75.81 406.38 74.05 311.92 455.94 29.01 71.72 Major exporters 4/ : 3.18 31.50 0.16 7.80 14.15 16.00 4.69 Argentina : 0.22 19.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.00 0.53 South Africa : 2.96 12.00 0.15 4.30 8.95 2.00 4.16 Major importers 5/ : 13.78 96.93 45.96 99.15 139.55 1.06 16.06 Egypt : 0.18 5.78 4.50 8.60 10.20 0.00 0.26 EU-25 6/ : 3.17 53.35 2.50 41.70 52.50 0.50 6.02 Japan : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 4.34 22.00 5.70 12.30 27.60 0.01 4.43 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.66 15.67 3.26 12.85 18.65 0.55 1.40 South Korea : 1.43 0.08 8.50 7.00 9.10 0.00 0.91 Selected other : Brazil : 4.11 35.50 1.50 33.50 39.10 0.70 1.31 Canada : 1.14 8.84 2.20 8.20 10.80 0.15 1.23 China : 44.85 128.00 0.10 98.50 131.50 6.00 35.45 Other Europe : 1.61 23.44 0.36 15.89 19.68 1.55 4.19 FSU-12 : 1.35 15.30 0.64 10.99 12.64 2.13 2.52 Russia : 0.16 3.45 0.40 3.10 3.65 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-423-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 128.70 674.27 73.76 463.85 680.87 74.48 122.10 June : 127.99 673.34 73.26 463.52 680.29 73.93 121.04 United States : May : 56.27 279.03 0.25 148.60 221.50 49.53 64.53 June : 56.27 279.03 0.25 148.60 221.50 49.53 64.53 Total foreign : May : 72.43 395.24 73.51 315.25 459.38 24.95 57.57 June : 71.72 394.31 73.01 314.92 458.79 24.40 56.52 Major exporters 4/ : May : 4.67 28.50 0.10 8.00 14.40 15.00 3.87 June : 4.69 28.00 0.10 8.00 14.40 14.80 3.59 Argentina May : 0.52 19.00 0.00 3.80 5.50 13.50 0.52 Jun : 0.53 18.50 0.00 3.80 5.50 13.00 0.53 South Africa May : 4.14 9.50 0.10 4.20 8.90 1.50 3.34 Jun : 4.16 9.50 0.10 4.20 8.90 1.80 3.06 Major importers 5/ : May : 16.41 91.61 46.40 98.80 139.30 0.91 14.21 June : 16.06 91.61 46.50 98.90 139.45 0.91 13.81 Egypt May : 0.31 5.95 4.20 8.50 10.15 0.00 0.31 Jun : 0.26 5.95 4.50 8.70 10.40 0.00 0.31 EU-25 6/ May : 6.02 47.87 2.50 40.50 51.10 0.60 4.68 Jun : 6.02 47.87 2.50 40.50 51.10 0.60 4.68 Japan May : 1.34 0.00 16.70 12.25 16.75 0.00 1.29 Jun : 1.34 0.00 16.70 12.25 16.75 0.00 1.29 Mexico May : 4.43 21.60 5.90 12.60 28.10 0.01 3.83 Jun : 4.43 21.60 5.90 12.60 28.10 0.01 3.83 S.-east Asia 7/May : 1.70 16.07 3.70 13.70 19.55 0.30 1.61 Jun : 1.40 16.07 3.50 13.60 19.45 0.30 1.21 South Korea May : 0.91 0.08 8.80 6.90 9.00 0.00 0.79 Jun : 0.91 0.08 8.80 6.90 9.00 0.00 0.79 Selected other : Brazil May : 1.71 44.00 0.40 36.00 41.90 2.00 2.21 Jun : 1.31 44.00 0.60 36.00 41.80 1.60 2.51 Canada May : 1.23 8.90 1.80 8.00 10.60 0.20 1.13 Jun : 1.23 8.90 1.80 8.00 10.60 0.20 1.13 China May : 35.45 127.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 3.00 25.65 Jun : 35.45 127.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 3.00 25.65 Other Europe May : 4.29 19.72 0.46 16.06 19.85 1.70 2.92 Jun : 4.19 19.72 0.46 16.01 19.80 1.70 2.87 FSU-12 May : 2.42 11.05 1.01 9.99 11.58 1.13 1.78 Jun : 2.52 10.55 0.61 9.59 11.18 1.13 1.38 Russia May : 0.36 2.00 0.80 2.50 3.00 0.00 0.16 Jun : 0.36 2.00 0.40 2.10 2.60 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-423-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 3/ : 110.32 389.47 24.80 413.64 27.07 86.15 United States : 0.83 6.42 0.50 3.65 3.33 0.76 Total foreign : 109.49 383.05 24.31 409.99 23.74 85.39 Major exporters 4/ : 17.81 131.94 0.04 114.47 19.48 15.84 India : 11.00 87.00 0.00 84.10 3.10 10.80 Pakistan : 0.05 4.85 0.00 2.70 1.95 0.24 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.14 1.71 Vietnam : 3.47 22.08 0.04 18.20 4.30 3.09 Major importers 5/ : 12.34 59.35 9.41 68.14 0.37 12.59 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.70 8.69 0.08 1.23 EU-25 6/ : 0.96 1.72 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.65 36.00 0.00 4.02 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.20 1.29 10.25 0.00 4.05 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.21 2.99 5.15 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.35 0.47 0.00 0.11 China : 67.22 112.46 1.12 135.00 0.88 44.93 Egypt : 0.72 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.83 0.49 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.54 0.73 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.19 4.64 0.21 0.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 3/ : 86.15 401.77 24.45 414.12 25.06 73.80 United States : 0.76 7.41 0.45 3.95 3.40 1.26 Total foreign : 85.39 394.36 24.01 410.17 21.65 72.54 Major exporters 4/ : 15.84 129.77 0.04 114.83 17.70 13.12 India : 10.80 86.00 0.00 84.00 3.00 9.80 Pakistan : 0.24 4.92 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.41 Thailand : 1.71 17.00 0.00 9.48 8.50 0.73 Vietnam : 3.09 21.85 0.04 18.60 4.20 2.18 Major importers 5/ : 12.59 60.13 9.28 68.82 0.44 12.75 Brazil : 1.23 8.98 0.45 9.00 0.20 1.45 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.83 0.70 35.85 0.00 3.70 Nigeria : 1.15 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.57 Philippines : 4.05 9.40 1.25 10.40 0.00 4.30 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.27 3.45 5.22 0.06 1.43 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 9.57 0.00 10.30 0.15 0.75 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.11 China : 44.93 126.00 0.70 135.10 0.60 35.93 Egypt : 0.49 3.93 0.00 3.33 0.85 0.25 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.68 8.30 0.20 1.82 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.80 0.00 0.13 South Korea : 0.82 5.00 0.22 4.74 0.00 1.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-423-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 74.80 410.31 23.90 416.59 24.45 68.53 June : 73.80 410.37 24.00 416.82 24.51 67.35 United States : May : 1.26 7.14 0.46 4.02 3.81 1.04 June : 1.26 7.14 0.46 4.02 3.84 1.01 Total foreign : May : 73.55 403.17 23.44 412.57 20.64 67.49 June : 72.54 403.23 23.54 412.80 20.67 66.34 Major exporters 4/ : May : 13.41 135.10 0.04 116.29 17.00 15.26 June : 13.12 135.10 0.04 116.29 17.00 14.97 India May : 9.80 90.00 0.00 85.00 3.00 11.80 Jun : 9.80 90.00 0.00 85.00 3.00 11.80 Pakistan May : 0.41 5.00 0.00 2.80 2.00 0.61 Jun : 0.41 5.00 0.00 2.80 2.00 0.61 Thailand May : 0.73 17.80 0.00 9.49 8.00 1.04 Jun : 0.73 17.80 0.00 9.49 8.00 1.04 Vietnam May : 2.47 22.30 0.04 19.00 4.00 1.81 Jun : 2.18 22.30 0.04 19.00 4.00 1.52 Major importers 5/ : May : 12.58 59.44 9.19 69.11 0.34 11.76 June : 12.75 59.44 9.19 69.22 0.36 11.79 Brazil May : 1.28 8.10 0.55 9.10 0.10 0.74 Jun : 1.45 8.10 0.55 9.21 0.13 0.77 EU-25 6/ May : 1.13 1.80 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.18 Jun : 1.13 1.80 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.18 Indonesia May : 3.70 34.90 0.70 35.60 0.00 3.70 Jun : 3.70 34.90 0.70 35.60 0.00 3.70 Nigeria May : 0.57 2.60 1.40 4.35 0.00 0.22 Jun : 0.57 2.60 1.40 4.35 0.00 0.22 Philippines May : 4.30 9.30 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.25 Jun : 4.30 9.30 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.25 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 1.43 2.27 3.25 5.32 0.06 1.57 Jun : 1.43 2.27 3.25 5.32 0.06 1.57 Selected other : Burma May : 1.33 10.73 0.00 10.40 0.15 1.51 Jun : 0.75 10.73 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.93 C. Am & Car. 8/May : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.10 Jun : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.10 China May : 36.23 127.50 0.90 135.20 0.60 28.83 Jun : 35.93 127.50 0.90 135.20 0.60 28.53 Egypt May : 0.35 4.00 0.00 3.35 0.75 0.25 Jun : 0.25 4.00 0.00 3.35 0.75 0.15 Japan May : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Jun : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Mexico May : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.83 0.00 0.10 Jun : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.83 0.00 0.10 South Korea May : 1.30 4.90 0.25 4.66 0.00 1.79 Jun : 1.30 4.90 0.25 4.66 0.00 1.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-423-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World : 39.60 95.10 33.95 98.29 33.07 -0.05 37.34 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.22 13.76 0.20 3.51 Total foreign : 34.21 76.85 33.91 92.07 19.31 -0.24 33.83 Major exporters 4/ : 11.51 30.74 3.18 18.26 14.83 -0.16 12.49 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.75 6.74 0.01 1.82 4.99 0.00 1.69 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.44 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 4.85 9.36 0.95 5.02 3.90 -0.20 6.44 Australia : 1.30 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.12 0.89 Brazil : 2.88 6.02 0.55 3.95 0.96 -0.10 4.63 Major importers : 20.46 42.66 26.11 67.18 3.05 -0.09 19.09 India : 3.59 13.80 0.80 13.50 0.63 0.00 4.06 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.12 0.03 1.10 China : 10.40 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 -0.25 9.61 EU-25 8/ : 1.52 1.96 3.15 3.90 1.71 0.06 0.96 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.37 4.10 2.37 6.20 0.36 0.00 1.28 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.33 0.14 7.63 8.08 0.06 0.08 1.88 Indonesia : 0.40 0.03 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.56 0.06 1.68 1.85 0.00 0.03 0.42 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World : 37.34 119.61 32.85 108.06 33.34 -0.34 48.74 United States : 3.51 23.25 0.03 6.30 13.00 -0.01 7.50 Total foreign : 33.83 96.36 32.82 101.76 20.34 -0.33 41.24 Major exporters 4/ : 12.49 38.08 1.91 19.40 16.07 -0.16 17.18 Pakistan : 2.03 11.30 1.00 10.40 0.60 0.03 3.31 Central Asia 5/ : 1.69 7.93 3/ 1.84 5.26 0.00 2.52 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.28 4.80 3/ 0.20 3.96 0.00 1.92 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.63 0.51 5.29 4.55 -0.20 7.94 Australia : 0.89 2.80 3/ 0.07 2.10 -0.12 1.66 Brazil : 4.63 6.40 0.20 4.20 1.80 -0.10 5.33 Major importers : 19.09 54.32 26.32 75.68 2.85 -0.19 21.39 India : 4.06 18.10 0.75 15.00 0.80 0.00 7.11 Mexico : 1.10 0.63 1.90 2.10 0.18 0.03 1.33 China : 9.61 29.00 6.50 38.00 0.03 -0.35 7.43 EU-25 8/ : 0.96 2.30 3.22 3.61 1.64 0.06 1.17 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.45 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.28 4.15 3.50 7.00 0.15 0.00 1.78 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.15 9.00 8.55 0.06 0.08 2.35 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.40 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.48 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.10 2.00 0.01 0.03 0.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-423-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World : May : 49.07 107.00 39.30 111.50 39.00 -0.30 45.17 June : 48.74 106.19 39.24 111.53 38.89 -0.30 44.05 United States : May : 7.10 19.50 0.04 5.80 14.50 0.04 6.30 June : 7.50 19.50 0.04 5.80 15.00 0.04 6.20 Total foreign : May : 41.97 87.50 39.26 105.70 24.50 -0.34 38.87 June : 41.24 86.69 39.20 105.73 23.89 -0.34 37.85 Major exporters 4/ : June : 17.18 35.07 2.17 19.88 18.98 -0.16 15.71 Pakistan Jun : 3.31 9.50 1.15 10.80 0.65 0.03 2.48 Central Asia 5/Jun : 2.52 7.44 3/ 1.86 6.08 0.00 2.03 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jun : 1.92 4.28 3/ 0.19 4.61 0.00 1.41 S. Hemis 7/ Jun : 7.94 10.85 0.47 5.30 5.75 -0.20 8.41 Australia Jun : 1.66 2.60 3/ 0.06 2.80 -0.12 1.52 Brazil Jun : 5.33 6.70 0.20 4.20 2.20 -0.10 5.93 Major importers Jun : 21.39 47.90 32.68 79.16 3.18 -0.19 19.82 India Jun : 7.11 15.50 0.60 15.80 0.80 0.00 6.61 Mexico Jun : 1.33 0.90 1.20 2.00 0.23 0.03 1.18 China May : 8.93 25.50 15.00 41.00 0.03 -0.35 8.76 Jun : 7.43 25.50 15.00 41.00 0.03 -0.35 7.26 EU-25 8/ Jun : 1.17 2.15 2.85 3.26 1.93 0.06 0.92 Russia Jun : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey Jun : 1.78 3.70 3.30 7.00 0.15 0.00 1.63 Sel. Asia 9/ Jun : 2.35 0.15 8.31 8.65 0.06 0.08 2.02 Indonesia Jun : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Jun : 0.55 0.05 2.00 2.10 0.01 0.03 0.47 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and estimated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-423-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 40.40 186.26 54.15 163.76 190.14 55.67 35.00 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.78 23.95 3.06 Total foreign : 35.54 119.48 53.99 122.13 145.36 31.72 31.94 Major exporters 3/ : 28.49 87.41 0.88 55.36 60.00 29.30 27.47 Argentina : 12.47 33.00 0.54 25.04 26.62 6.71 12.68 Brazil : 15.93 50.50 0.33 29.33 32.24 19.82 14.70 Major importers 4/ : 6.05 17.43 43.57 49.00 63.24 0.34 3.46 China : 4.47 15.39 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.63 14.64 14.13 15.46 0.01 0.74 Japan : 0.31 0.23 4.69 3.54 4.93 0.00 0.30 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.89 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 35.00 216.32 61.09 174.16 203.31 61.94 47.16 United States : 3.06 85.48 0.14 45.59 49.76 30.21 8.71 Total foreign : 31.94 130.84 60.96 128.58 153.55 31.74 38.44 Major exporters 3/ : 27.47 95.80 0.75 57.37 62.45 29.32 32.25 Argentina : 12.68 39.00 0.45 26.40 28.05 7.57 16.51 Brazil : 14.70 53.00 0.28 29.47 32.69 19.65 15.65 Major importers 4/ : 3.46 20.15 49.84 52.63 67.94 0.38 5.13 China : 2.10 18.00 22.80 29.00 38.85 0.35 3.70 EU-25 : 0.74 0.79 14.96 14.29 15.69 0.01 0.79 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.55 3.32 4.71 0.00 0.30 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.90 3.99 4.03 0.00 0.04 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : June : 47.16 219.72 65.58 183.52 214.02 66.45 51.99 United States : June : 8.71 78.79 0.08 45.72 49.76 30.89 6.93 Total foreign : June : 38.44 140.93 65.50 137.80 164.25 35.56 45.06 Major exporters 3/ : June : 32.25 105.80 0.58 60.95 66.47 33.25 38.92 Argentina Jun : 16.51 39.00 0.35 27.75 29.50 8.25 18.11 Brazil Jun : 15.65 62.00 0.22 31.60 35.15 22.00 20.72 Major importers 4/ : June : 5.13 19.29 54.30 56.97 73.08 0.37 5.27 China Jun : 3.70 17.00 27.00 33.12 43.67 0.33 3.70 EU-25 Jun : 0.79 0.85 15.20 14.50 15.94 0.01 0.89 Japan Jun : 0.30 0.23 4.60 3.40 4.79 0.00 0.34 Mexico Jun : 0.04 0.13 4.00 4.09 4.13 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-423-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 4.44 128.83 43.99 128.95 44.61 3.69 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.25 29.26 3.95 0.19 Total foreign : 4.24 95.87 43.75 99.70 40.66 3.50 Major exporters 3/ : 1.16 46.96 0.27 10.02 37.02 1.35 Argentina : 0.35 19.76 0.00 0.62 18.95 0.54 Brazil : 0.77 22.78 0.27 8.28 14.76 0.78 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 33.04 26.77 58.79 1.09 1.13 EU-25 : 0.87 11.10 21.86 32.59 0.40 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.56 0.65 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.69 137.28 45.68 136.89 45.94 3.82 United States : 0.19 36.17 0.15 30.75 5.53 0.23 Total foreign : 3.50 101.11 45.53 106.14 40.41 3.60 Major exporters 3/ : 1.35 47.84 0.20 11.51 36.48 1.41 Argentina : 0.54 20.86 0.00 0.76 19.97 0.68 Brazil : 0.78 23.22 0.20 8.71 14.81 0.68 India : 0.04 3.77 0.00 2.05 1.70 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.13 36.04 27.76 62.58 1.23 1.12 EU-25 : 0.85 11.23 22.75 33.61 0.36 0.86 China : 0.00 22.95 0.06 22.19 0.82 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : June : 3.82 144.34 46.78 143.85 47.14 3.96 United States : June : 0.23 36.32 0.15 31.21 5.26 0.23 Total foreign : June : 3.60 108.02 46.63 112.64 41.87 3.73 Major exporters 3/ : June : 1.41 50.66 0.10 12.71 37.93 1.53 Argentina Jun : 0.68 21.65 0.00 1.00 20.60 0.73 Brazil Jun : 0.68 24.60 0.10 9.40 15.23 0.75 India Jun : 0.05 4.41 0.00 2.31 2.10 0.05 Major importers 4/ : June : 1.12 39.51 28.33 66.60 1.24 1.12 EU-25 Jun : 0.86 11.40 23.20 34.19 0.39 0.87 China Jun : 0.00 26.37 0.05 25.62 0.80 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-423-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 1.97 29.90 8.38 29.72 8.98 1.55 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.42 0.49 Total foreign : 1.30 22.15 8.24 22.07 8.56 1.07 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.68 0.08 5.10 7.70 0.34 Argentina : 0.05 4.51 0.00 0.11 4.41 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.64 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.10 EU-25 : 0.23 2.54 0.04 2.03 0.57 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.54 9.02 0.03 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.55 31.90 9.09 31.27 9.50 1.76 United States : 0.49 8.64 0.05 7.85 0.64 0.69 Total foreign : 1.07 23.26 9.04 23.42 8.87 1.07 Major exporters 3/ : 0.34 12.95 0.14 5.11 7.97 0.35 Argentina : 0.04 4.75 0.00 0.12 4.61 0.07 Brazil : 0.10 5.65 0.05 3.01 2.68 0.10 EU-25 : 0.21 2.55 0.09 1.98 0.68 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 6.07 3.88 9.91 0.03 0.45 China : 0.33 5.18 2.20 7.42 0.02 0.27 India : 0.11 0.87 1.60 2.40 0.01 0.17 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : June : 1.76 33.62 9.77 33.28 10.11 1.77 United States : June : 0.69 8.60 0.05 8.01 0.64 0.70 Total foreign : June : 1.07 25.03 9.72 25.28 9.48 1.07 Major exporters 3/ : June : 0.35 13.66 0.07 5.18 8.56 0.33 Argentina Jun : 0.07 5.02 0.00 0.14 4.90 0.05 Brazil Jun : 0.10 6.04 0.03 3.10 2.97 0.10 EU-25 Jun : 0.19 2.59 0.04 1.94 0.70 0.18 Major importers 4/ : June : 0.45 7.02 4.33 11.30 0.02 0.47 China Jun : 0.27 5.97 2.60 8.56 0.01 0.27 India Jun : 0.17 1.02 1.65 2.64 0.01 0.19 Pakistan Jun : 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-423-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2004 : II : 6253 4897 11237 8492 1366 9983 21220 1847 43.8 III : 6360 5047 11493 8839 1390 10365 21858 1870 42.2 IV : 6097 5435 11623 8537 1389 10053 21676 1906 42.0 Annual : 24548 20509 45419 34063 5454 40021 85440 7443 170.8 : 2005 : I : 5727 5136 10951 8571 1320 10013 20964 1855 43.2 II*: 6250 4950 11286 8825 1375 10325 21611 1865 44.9 III*: 6875 5100 12064 9125 1375 10635 22699 1875 43.0 IV*: 6400 5575 12074 8850 1400 10375 22449 1910 43.2 Annual : May Proj : 25202 20696 46264 35128 5452 41086 87350 7555 173.8 Jun Proj : 25252 20761 46375 35371 5470 41348 87723 7505 174.3 : 2006 : I*: 5950 5175 11219 8750 1310 10185 21404 1865 44.5 Annual : May Proj : 25975 20940 47311 36275 5535 42325 89636 7635 177.9 Jun Proj : 25975 20940 47311 36275 5535 42325 89636 7635 178.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2004 : II : 88.15 54.91 79.3 66.6 79.7 18.53 III : 83.58 56.58 75.7 73.1 66.2 15.50 IV : 85.09 54.35 68.3 77.1 68.0 16.07 Annual : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.05 : 2005 : I : 89.09 51.92 71.9 65.9 64.5 15.67 II*: 89-90 53-54 72-73 67-68 56-57 14.75-14.95 III*: 81-85 48-50 72-76 70-74 60-64 14.05-14.55 IV*: 81-87 40-44 71-77 74-80 64-70 14.70-15.50 Annual : May Proj : 85-89 48-51 72-75 69-72 63-66 14.70-15.20 Jun Proj : 85-88 48-50 72-74 69-72 61-64 14.80-15.20 : 2006 : I*: 74-80 45-49 70-76 60-66 62-68 13.75-14.75 Annual : May Proj : 76-82 44-48 71-77 66-71 68-73 13.15-14.15 Jun Proj : 76-82 44-48 71-77 66-71 63-68 13.05-14.05 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-423-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2004 : 518 24650 3680 28848 461 637 27750 66.1 2005 Proj. May : 637 25304 3701 29642 625 575 28442 67.1 Jun : 637 25354 3701 29692 625 575 28492 67.2 2006 Proj. May : 575 26077 3740 30392 660 575 29157 68.1 Jun : 575 26077 3740 30392 660 575 29157 68.1 : PORK : 2004 : 532 20529 1100 22161 2179 543 19439 51.3 2005 Proj. May : 543 20716 1015 22274 2545 545 19184 50.1 Jun : 543 20781 1015 22339 2545 545 19249 50.3 2006 Proj. May : 545 20960 1020 22525 2745 545 19235 49.8 Jun : 545 20960 1020 22525 2745 545 19235 49.8 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2004 : 1059 45555 4961 51575 2649 1187 47739 119.0 2005 Proj. May : 1187 46399 4889 52475 3179 1130 48166 118.8 Jun : 1187 46510 4889 52586 3179 1133 48274 119.1 2006 Proj. May : 1130 47446 4935 53511 3413 1130 48968 119.6 Jun : 1133 47446 4935 53514 3413 1133 48968 119.6 : BROILERS : 2004 : 608 33699 27 34334 4768 713 28853 84.3 2005 Proj. May : 713 34752 36 35501 4969 650 29882 86.5 Jun : 713 34993 36 35742 4969 650 30123 87.2 2006 Proj. May : 650 35887 36 36573 5110 675 30788 88.3 Jun : 650 35887 36 36573 5110 675 30788 88.3 : TURKEYS : 2004 : 354 5383 5 5742 443 288 5011 17.0 2005 Proj. May : 288 5381 5 5674 516 250 4908 16.5 Jun : 288 5398 8 5694 526 250 4918 16.6 2006 Proj. May : 250 5462 4 5716 525 300 4891 16.3 Jun : 250 5462 4 5716 535 300 4881 16.3 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2004 : 966 39585 34 40584 5423 1004 34157 102.4 2005 Proj. May : 1004 40638 45 41687 5621 903 35163 104.3 Jun : 1004 40897 48 41949 5631 903 35415 105.0 2006 Proj. May : 903 41864 44 42811 5775 979 36057 105.8 Jun : 903 41864 44 42811 5785 979 36047 105.8 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2004 : 2025 85140 4995 92159 8072 2191 81896 221.4 2005 Proj. May : 2191 87037 4934 94163 8800 2033 83330 223.0 Jun : 2191 87407 4937 94536 8810 2036 83690 224.0 2006 Proj. May : 2033 89310 4979 96322 9188 2109 85025 225.4 Jun : 2036 89310 4979 96325 9198 2112 85015 225.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-423-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.3 13.7 14.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 Production : 7297.0 7443.0 7555.2 7505.2 7635.0 7635.0 Imports : 13.3 12.7 13.0 13.0 12.8 12.8 Total supply : 7320.6 7469.4 7582.7 7532.7 7661.8 7661.8 : Use : Exports : 146.2 166.7 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 Hatching use : 959.4 987.2 1026.6 1026.6 1110.0 1050.0 Ending stocks : 13.7 14.5 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6201.3 6301.0 6342.1 6292.0 6337.8 6397.8 Per capita (number) : 255.7 257.2 256.4 254.3 253.8 256.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2003 : 2004 : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.4 170.8 173.8 174.3 177.9 178.7 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 9.9 8.3 7.2 7.2 7.5 7.6 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 172.7 173.2 176.8 177.6 Imports : 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 Total cml. supply : 184.2 183.3 184.9 185.4 189.2 190.1 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.3 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.5 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 Commercial use 2/ : 174.7 176.2 177.4 177.9 181.6 182.5 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.2 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 172.7 173.2 176.8 177.6 Imports : 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply : 182.8 183.0 185.9 186.3 189.7 190.6 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 CCC net removals 1/ : 8.1 1.3 -0.3 -0.3 1.5 0.9 Commercial use 2/ : 166.2 173.5 178.1 178.4 180.0 181.4 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : 29 -7 0 0 8 0 Cheese : 41 6 0 0 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 664 105 -25 -25 125 75 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-423-32 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.3031 1.6431 1.460- 1.470- 1.330- 1.310- : 1.510 1.510 1.430 1.410 : Butter : 1.1194 1.8239 1.455- 1.450- 1.350- 1.305- : 1.535 1.520 1.480 1.435 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8090 0.8405 0.880- 0.900- 0.820- 0.860- : 0.920 0.940 0.890 0.930 : Dry whey : 0.1667 0.2319 0.225- 0.235- 0.175- 0.175- : 0.255 0.255 0.205 0.205 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 11.42 15.39 13.55- 13.60- 11.95- 11.70- : 14.05 14.00 12.95 12.70 : Class IV : 10.00 13.20 12.05- 12.20- 11.05- 11.20- : 12.65 12.70 12.15 12.30 : All milk 3/ : 12.52 16.05 14.70- 14.80- 13.15- 13.05- : 15.20 15.20 14.15 14.05 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-423-33 Note: Tables on pages 33-35 present a 24-year record of the differences between the June projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the June projection and the final estimate have averaged 16.2 million tons (3.0%) ranging from -32.2 to 29.6 million tons. The June projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 10 times. Reliability of June Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.0 16.2 -32.2 29.6 14 10 U.S. : 4.8 2.9 -7.4 8.4 14 10 Foreign : 3.1 14.9 -28.8 28.2 13 11 Exports : World : 4.2 4.8 -16.6 12.3 15 8 U.S. : 8.6 2.8 -10.0 7.8 14 10 Foreign : 4.8 3.9 -11.6 6.5 17 7 Domestic use : World : 1.8 9.7 -27.5 19.6 15 9 U.S. : 6.0 1.9 -6.4 3.2 15 9 Foreign : 1.8 8.9 -24.2 18.1 15 9 Ending stocks : World : 10.1 13.1 -26.7 29.7 15 9 U.S. : 15.5 3.5 -9.6 14.9 14 10 Foreign : 10.3 10.6 -21.9 14.9 14 10 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.0 24.6 -77.0 76.0 11 13 U.S. : 9.8 20.3 -35.9 70.3 11 13 Foreign : 2.3 13.4 -41.6 39.5 9 15 Exports : World : 5.9 6.2 -9.4 16.5 15 9 U.S. : 15.8 8.3 -22.8 15.3 8 16 Foreign : 13.0 6.7 -19.1 14.2 13 11 Domestic use : World : 1.6 13.1 -20.4 33.2 9 15 U.S. : 4.3 7.8 -16.6 33.0 16 8 Foreign : 1.5 9.7 -11.7 33.5 10 14 Ending stocks : World : 16.4 22.0 -69.9 48.0 15 9 U.S. : 35.7 17.8 -57.6 43.9 12 12 Foreign : 14.3 11.0 -30.5 14.0 17 7 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.6 -21.8 15.2 17 7 U.S. : 5.9 0.3 -1.1 0.5 15 9 Foreign : 2.3 7.6 -21.9 15.3 16 8 Exports : World : 8.3 1.6 -7.5 1.1 17 7 U.S. : 8.8 0.3 -1.0 0.7 13 8 Foreign : 9.0 1.5 -7.1 0.9 17 7 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.6 -20.3 5.0 19 5 U.S. : 7.4 0.2 -0.5 0.5 11 13 Foreign : 1.7 5.7 -20.8 5.2 20 4 Ending stocks : World : 12.0 5.3 -13.5 8.2 15 9 U.S. : 27.8 0.3 -0.9 0.9 12 10 Foreign : 12.6 5.3 -14.2 8.3 16 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-423-34 Reliability of June Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS 4/ :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.8 4.5 -11.3 12.0 11 13 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 12.9 2.6 -6.4 6.4 14 10 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 5.7 2.2 -7.2 4.5 16 8 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 47.2 3.1 -7.1 8.4 7 17 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.6 4.1 -16.4 11.4 14 9 U.S. : 9.3 1.5 -5.6 3.1 11 13 Foreign : 4.7 3.3 -12.4 10.5 13 11 Exports : World : 5.6 1.4 -4.2 2.7 12 12 U.S. : 19.4 1.1 -2.4 3.0 16 8 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.5 1.9 11 13 Mill use : World : 2.7 2.4 -8.1 4.5 11 13 U.S. : 8.1 0.7 -1.4 1.3 13 10 Foreign : 2.9 2.3 -7.6 4.3 13 11 Ending stocks : World : 15.5 5.6 -14.3 15.2 16 8 U.S. : 34.6 1.5 -3.4 3.5 12 12 Foreign : 14.7 4.7 -13.4 12.5 17 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 24 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. 4/ Global soybean supply and use projections for 2004/05 were initially released in June 2004. Therefore, an insufficient number of observations are available to provide meaningful reliability statistics for global soybean supply and use. WASDE-423-35 Reliability of United States June Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 11.9 830 -3327 2379 12 12 Exports : 17.2 309 -850 588 9 15 Domestic use : 7.8 536 -5888 1095 16 8 Ending stocks : 42.5 631 -2091 1460 12 12 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.1 100 -228 171 10 13 Exports : 18.2 42 -105 97 10 14 Domestic use : 15.2 60 -139 100 12 12 Ending stocks : 50.6 65 -189 191 8 16 : BARLEY : Production : 10.0 36 -73 206 8 16 Exports : 33.5 18 -92 53 13 10 Domestic use : 10.8 38 -72 95 13 11 Ending stocks : 15.8 26 -59 79 10 14 : OATS : Production : 16.4 41 -77 231 6 18 Exports : 75.4 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 7.9 27 -39 160 8 16 Ending stocks : 17.0 19 -59 77 6 16 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.8 1449 -3721 4432 15 9 Exports : 17.1 1063 -2650 1964 13 11 Domestic use : 3.6 822 -1800 2259 14 10 Ending stocks : 31.4 74 -204 488 10 13 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.7 666 -1923 1553 15 9 Exports : 26.2 426 -1700 914 12 12 Domestic use : 2.9 378 -985 758 16 7 Ending stocks : 33.6 477 -1023 1288 11 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.6 380 -348 819 16 7 Pork : 1.8 293 -579 676 16 7 Broilers : 1.0 231 -507 596 14 8 Turkeys : 1.4 59 -210 116 13 10 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.8 51 -83 125 17 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.7 1.1 -3.6 3.9 12 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 33 and 34 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 24 for crops and 23 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2004 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----- End of File -----