WASDE-343 - October 9, 1998 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1998/99 ending stocks of wheat are up 17 million bushels from last month as smaller domestic use more than offsets a smaller crop. The crop estimate of 2,557 million bushels (published in the September 30 Small Grains report) is down 8 million from the September 11 forecast. The projected feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels from last month because of the smaller-than-expected use during the June-August quarter. The projected price range is down 5 cents on each end to $2.45 to $2.75 per bushel. Projected 1998/99 global production, use, and stocks are down from last month. Smaller global production is largely because of reductions for Russia, Kazakstan, and Argentina. Global imports are up slightly as increases for Bangladesh, North Korea, and South Korea more than offset reductions for Indonesia and Iran. Smaller projected exports for Argentina and Kazakstan (because of the smaller crops) are largely offset by increases for Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Ukraine. Much of the reductions in projected global use and stocks is due to the smaller crop in Russia. COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for U.S. 1998/99 feed grains is for lower stocks because of a slightly smaller crop and larger use than last month. The U.S. corn crop, at 9.743 billion bushels, is up 5 million from last month. Smaller sorghum production is forecast, and the barley and oats crops (published in the September 30 Small Grains report) are also down from the September 11 forecast. The larger corn crop is more than offset by smaller carryin stocks and larger use. Corn feed and residual use is up 100 million bushels from last month because of larger-than-expected use in 1997/98. Corn exports are projected up 25 million bushels because of reduced competition from Argentina. The projected price range for corn is unchanged at $1.80 to $2.20 per bushel. Global 1998/99 coarse grain supply and use projections are down from last month. Foreign production is down around 11 million tons from last month because of reductions for Russia, Argentina, the EU, Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Kazakstan. Except for Argentina, the lower production in these countries largely is reflected in reduced use and/or smaller stocks. For Argentina, the smaller corn crop will result in lower exports. Global imports are down slightly because of smaller corn imports by South Korea due to larger feed wheat imports and reduced feed ingredient needs. RICE: The U.S. 1998/99 rice crop is projected at 181.5 million cwt, up marginally from last month. Average yield is projected at 5,696 pounds per acre, up slightly from last month, but down over 400 pounds from the 1996/97 record. Beginning stocks for 1998/99 are down 2.4 million cwt from last month based on an errata to the Rice Stocks report issued by NASS. No changes are made on the use side. Ending stocks are projected at 26.3 million cwt, down 2 million cwt from last month and a decline of 1.4 million cwt from 1997/98. The season-average prices projection is reduced 25 cents per cwt on each end to $8.75 to $9.75, reflecting declining domestic and international prices. Projected 1998/99 global rice production, consumption, and ending stocks are down from last month while exports are raised slightly. Global production is projected at 376.3 million tons, down 2.4 million tons from last month and a decline of 9 million tons from the record 1997/98 crop. The lower world rice crop resulted primarily from decreases in production in India and Bangladesh. Crops are also lowered for Japan, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Cambodia, Nigeria, and Ghana. Slightly offsetting the declines are increases in the rice crops in Pakistan, Uruguay, and Senegal. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production prospects for 1998/99 are off sharply from last month but are still record high at 84.3 million metric tons. Soybean production is forecast at a record 2,769 million bushels, down 140 million bushels from a month ago but up nearly 2 percent from 1997/98. Indicated U.S. yield is off sharply to 38.7 bushels per acre, and down slightly from the revised 1997/98 yield. Reductions in the Corn Belt account for most of the decrease. Cottonseed production is down again this month to 5.0 million short tons, the lowest since 1989/90. The first survey-based sunflowerseed production forecast of 2.1 million metric tons is close to earlier indications. Peanut production is little changed this month at 3.61 billion pounds. U.S. oilseed demand prospects for 1998/99 are reduced this month, reflecting lowered export prospects for seeds and products. Larger competing supplies abroad more than offset some increase in importer demand. Projected soybean exports are reduced 30 million bushels this month to 830 million while soybean crush is lowered 25 million bushels to 1,600 million bushels. Stocks are reduced 90 million bushels to 395 million, constituting 15.3 percent of use. A drop of 0.7 million short tons in prospective soybean meal exports to 8.4 million tons is the main reason for lower crush as increased domestic meal use is only partially offsetting. A strong finish to 1997/98 prompts an increase for projected 1998/99 domestic use. Soybean oil exports are also reduced, as increased supplies and exports in Argentina more than offset small upward revisions to importer demand. Domestic soybean oil use is raised to 15.35 billion pounds. Projected stocks of soybean oil are cut to 1.45 billion pounds from last month's 1.59 billion. Season-average U.S. soybean prices are forecast at $5.00 to $5.70 per bushel, up 35 cents from last month. Soybean oil prices are raised 1.0 cent per pound and soybean meal prices are raised to $130 to $150 per short ton. Global oilseed production for 1998/99 is projected at a record 288.3 million metric tons, down 2.5 million from last month but up 1.5 million tons from 1997/98. Major foreign changes this month include a 1.0-million-ton increase for Argentina's soybean crop to 16.5 million tons and a 0.3-million-ton increase for India's soybean crop to 5.8 million. Partially offsetting is a reduction in China's soybean crop of 0.3 million tons to 13.5 million. Argentina growers are indicating more interest in soybean plantings at the expense of corn plantings. China's soybean yield is cut marginally this month, based mainly on dry weather in Eastern Heilongjiang Province. Other notable changes this month include a 0.4-million- ton upward revision for China's peanut crop and sharp reductions for Indonesia's palm oil and palm kernel production estimates for both 1997/98 and 1998/99. SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 1998/99 is projected at 11.7 million short tons, raw value, up 1 percent from 1997/98. Projected imports of 1.81 million tons under tariff rate quota are 4 percent above estimated TRQ imports in 1997/98. Projected sugar production is decreased slightly from last month, based on reduced forecast sugarcane output in Texas. The projected 1998/99 ending stocks-to-use ratio is 14.4 percent. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The U.S. total meat production estimates for both 1998 and 1999 are down slightly from last month. Fed cattle slaughter lagged expectations this summer and more than offset higher than anticipated slaughter weights, pulling down the third-quarter beef production estimate. Third-quarter 1998 pork production was marginally lower than forecast as hog slaughter and average weights fell below expectations. Both broiler and turkey output this summer lagged expectations. With numbers of heavy cattle in feedlots still large and record high slaughter weights, the beef production forecasts for the rest of 1998 and early 1999 are boosted slightly. The September 25 Hogs and Pigs report showed the June- August pig crop and September-November farrowing intentions to be slightly below expectations. Based on this, the pork production estimate for first half 1999 is lowered 125 million pounds. Meat export forecasts are lowered this month, primarily as a result of the poor economic situation in Russia. The largest impact is on broiler exports, as Russia is the number one market for U.S. broiler exports. Butter prices remained strong through the summer and the strength has carried into the seasonally strong year- end holiday demand period. This, combined with seasonally low milk production, is helping hold cheese prices at high levels and will support high farm level milk prices at least through autumn. The milk price forecasts are increased this month. High butter prices are resulting in larger butter imports than previously forecast. COTTON: This month's 1998/99 U.S. situation includes lower production, mill use, and exports compared with last month's estimates. Total production is now forecast at 13.3 million bales, down 275,000 bales. Domestic mill use is reduced 100,000 bales to 10.6 million bales, reflecting both lower supplies and continued sluggish demand. Exports also are reduced 100,000 bales, to 4.5 million. Lower offtake is expected to leave stocks of 2.35 million bales, near last month's level and 15.6 percent of total use. The world projections for 1998/99 show moderately lower production and sharply lower consumption this month. World production of 84.8 million bales is down 0.6 million, mainly due to decreases in the United States and Egypt. Total world consumption of 86.6 million bales is down 1.5 percent, based on lower forecasts for China, Brazil, India, Turkey, Russia, and the United States, due to a general slowdown in world demand and rising inventories of yarn and textiles. China's mill restructuring program is reducing its cotton consumption and mill use in Brazil and Russia is restricted by financial difficulties. World trade is reduced due to falling import demand, with lower exports projected for China, the United States, Uzbekistan, and other countries. Projected world ending stocks are raised 2 percent from last month. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on November 10, 1998. You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. NOTE: WASDE REPORT AVAILABLE IN PDF FORMAT You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm Acrobat files can be viewed or print in their original form, page by page. GET TIMELY DISPATCHES FROM AGRICULTURE'S NEW FRONTIER New forecasts for U.S. agriculture and presentations from USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 98, held February 23-24, 1998, are waiting for you. More than 60 speakers discussed farm prospects and front-burner issues ranging from biotechnology, to organic food standards, to transportation problems. DOWNLOAD SPEECHES: www.usda.gov/oce AGRICULTURAL BASELINE PROJECTIONS TO 2007, WAOB-WOAB-98-1. 124 pages, $21.00. Available now. PROCEEDINGS OF AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 98. WAOB-YCON-98, $25.00. Speeches and illustrations presented by speakers at the February 1998 conference. Off press April. BUY BOTH REPORTS AND SAVE. Ask for WAOB-WAOB-PKG-98, $40.00. WASDE-343-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 1,871.67 2,125.51 251.16 1,836.16 289.35 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,885.66 2,175.01 246.50 1,853.06 321.96 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 1,869.31 2,189.51 239.29 1,877.64 311.86 October : 1,849.84 2,171.79 237.57 1,867.33 304.46 Wheat : 1996/97 : 583.29 689.15 124.02 577.88 111.27 1997/98 (Est.) : 611.71 722.98 117.54 587.98 135.01 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 596.20 731.36 115.64 603.69 127.67 October : 590.62 725.63 115.29 601.82 123.81 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 908.18 1,006.04 106.98 879.15 126.89 1997/98 (Est.) : 888.58 1,015.48 103.56 880.70 134.78 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 894.45 1,026.67 102.57 886.83 139.85 October : 882.93 1,017.70 100.97 880.42 137.29 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 380.19 430.32 20.17 379.13 51.19 1997/98 (Est.) : 385.37 436.55 25.40 384.38 52.17 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 378.67 431.47 21.07 387.13 44.34 October : 376.29 428.46 21.31 385.10 43.36 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 335.20 366.45 81.27 245.23 39.95 1997/98 (Est.) : 340.03 385.81 76.56 250.51 58.74 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 347.48 413.85 78.91 256.23 78.71 October : 346.86 411.03 79.66 257.40 73.98 Wheat : 1996/97 : 62.19 74.94 27.25 35.61 12.07 1997/98 (Est.) : 68.76 83.41 28.31 35.44 19.66 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 69.80 91.94 29.26 38.59 24.09 October : 69.60 91.72 29.26 37.91 24.55 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 267.56 284.93 51.52 206.40 27.01 1997/98 (Est.) : 265.42 295.40 45.47 211.76 38.17 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 271.76 314.69 46.91 214.09 53.70 October : 271.33 312.17 47.66 215.94 48.58 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 5.45 6.58 2.50 3.22 0.87 1997/98 (Est.) : 5.84 7.00 2.78 3.31 0.90 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 5.92 7.22 2.74 3.55 0.93 October : 5.93 7.15 2.74 3.55 0.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-343-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 1,536.47 1,759.06 169.89 1,590.93 249.40 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,545.64 1,789.20 169.94 1,602.54 263.22 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 1,521.84 1,775.66 160.37 1,621.42 233.15 October : 1,502.98 1,760.76 157.91 1,609.94 230.48 Wheat : 1996/97 : 521.10 614.21 96.76 542.27 99.20 1997/98 (Est.) : 542.95 639.57 89.23 552.53 115.34 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 526.40 639.43 86.39 565.10 103.58 October : 521.02 633.91 86.04 563.91 99.26 Coarse grains 5/ : 1996/97 : 640.62 721.11 55.45 672.75 99.88 1997/98 (Est.) : 623.16 720.08 58.09 668.94 96.61 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 622.69 711.98 55.66 672.74 86.15 October : 611.60 705.53 53.31 664.48 88.71 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 374.74 423.74 17.67 375.92 50.32 1997/98 (Est.) : 379.52 429.55 22.62 381.07 51.27 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 372.75 424.25 18.33 383.58 43.42 October : 370.36 421.31 18.57 381.55 42.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1996/97 : 89.43 123.19 26.90 88.21 37.03 1997/98 (Est.) : 91.12 128.15 26.26 88.08 40.48 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 85.34 125.85 25.68 88.00 37.76 October : 84.78 125.26 25.16 86.64 38.48 : United States 1996/97 : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Est.) : 18.79 22.78 7.50 11.35 3.89 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 13.56 17.74 4.60 10.70 2.40 October : 13.29 17.48 4.50 10.60 2.35 : Foreign 3/ 1996/97 : 70.49 101.24 20.03 77.08 33.06 1997/98 (Est.) : 72.32 105.37 18.76 76.73 36.59 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 71.77 108.11 21.08 77.30 35.36 October : 71.49 107.78 20.66 76.04 36.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-343-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 261.19 283.24 49.41 219.06 16.40 1997/98 (Est.) : 286.79 303.19 53.35 229.62 22.20 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 290.81 313.19 52.20 235.45 28.58 October : 288.34 310.54 52.58 235.48 26.18 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 149.32 156.07 50.30 150.72 5.74 1997/98 (Est.) : 156.05 161.79 51.43 155.53 5.56 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 160.72 166.26 54.27 160.14 5.46 October : 160.63 166.19 54.17 160.45 5.36 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 75.48 82.92 28.83 75.32 7.25 1997/98 (Est.) : 76.84 84.09 29.26 77.32 6.58 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 80.16 86.87 30.33 80.08 6.35 October : 79.80 86.38 29.90 79.71 6.45 : : United States Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 74.82 81.47 24.63 44.13 4.64 1997/98 (Est.) : 83.57 88.84 24.62 48.94 6.44 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 88.14 95.17 24.10 48.84 13.87 October : 84.27 91.38 23.28 48.18 11.45 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 33.76 35.03 6.60 28.21 0.23 1997/98 (Est.) : 37.41 39.05 8.76 29.96 0.33 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 37.48 39.18 8.40 30.53 0.26 October : 36.92 38.74 7.76 30.71 0.26 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 8.46 11.19 1.61 8.62 0.96 1997/98 (Est.) : 9.64 12.28 2.19 9.14 0.96 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 9.66 12.35 2.03 9.27 1.05 October : 9.59 12.24 1.95 9.31 0.98 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 186.36 201.77 24.78 174.93 11.76 1997/98 (Est.) : 203.22 214.34 28.73 180.68 15.76 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 202.66 218.03 28.10 186.61 14.71 October : 204.07 219.15 29.30 187.30 14.74 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 115.56 121.04 43.70 122.51 5.51 1997/98 (Est.) : 118.64 122.74 42.67 125.57 5.22 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 123.25 127.08 45.87 129.61 5.20 October : 123.71 127.45 46.41 129.73 5.10 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 67.02 71.73 27.22 66.70 6.29 1997/98 (Est.) : 67.20 71.81 27.07 68.18 5.62 1998/99 (Proj.) : September : 70.50 74.52 28.30 70.81 5.30 October : 70.21 74.14 27.95 70.40 5.47 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-343-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 75.6 71.0 65.8 66.2 Harvested : 62.9 63.6 59.2 59.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 36.3 39.7 43.3 43.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 376 444 723 722 Production : 2,285 2,527 2,565 2,557 Imports : 92 95 90 90 Supply, total : 2,753 3,065 3,378 3,370 Food : 891 915 925 925 Seed : 103 93 93 93 Feed and residual : 314 294 400 375 Domestic, total : 1,308 1,302 1,418 1,393 Exports : 1,001 1,040 1,075 1,075 Use, total : 2,310 2,342 2,493 2,468 Ending stocks : 444 722 885 902 CCC inventory : 93 94 94 95 Free stocks : 351 628 791 807 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.30 3.38 2.50- 2.80 2.45- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1997/98 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 3/ : 1,264 723 529 402 146 3,065 Domestic use : 600 263 269 107 63 1,302 Exports : 358 240 180 205 57 1,040 Use, total : 958 503 449 312 120 2,342 Ending stocks, total : 306 220 80 90 26 722 : 1998/99 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 306 220 80 90 26 722 Production : 1,188 487 443 298 141 2,557 Supply, total 3/ : 1,496 763 523 398 190 3,370 Domestic use : 602 253 310 136 92 1,393 Exports : 470 275 100 190 40 1,075 Use, total : 1,072 528 410 326 132 2,468 Ending stocks, total : October : 424 235 113 72 59 902 September : 412 215 114 96 49 885 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-343-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 104.5 102.4 102.0 101.9 Harvested : 94.5 92.4 90.6 90.4 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.83 2.87 3.00 3.00 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 14.4 27.0 40.1 38.2 Production : 267.3 265.2 271.5 271.0 Imports : 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 Supply, total : 284.6 295.0 314.3 311.7 Feed and residual : 156.8 159.6 160.4 162.2 Food, seed & industrial : 49.2 51.8 53.3 53.3 Domestic, total : 206.1 211.4 213.7 215.5 Exports : 51.5 45.5 46.9 47.7 Use, total : 257.6 256.9 260.6 263.2 Ending stocks, total : 27.0 38.2 53.7 48.6 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 26.9 38.2 53.7 48.6 Outstanding loans : 5.0 8.5 8.8 8.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.5 80.2 80.8 80.8 Harvested : 73.1 73.7 73.8 73.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 127.1 127.0 132.0 132.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 426 883 1,399 1,308 Production : 9,293 9,366 9,738 9,743 Imports : 13 10 10 10 Supply, total : 9,733 10,259 11,147 11,061 Feed and residual : 5,362 5,654 5,750 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,692 1,782 1,850 1,850 Domestic, total : 7,054 7,436 7,600 7,700 Exports : 1,795 1,515 1,625 1,650 Use, total : 8,849 8,951 9,225 9,350 Ending stocks, total : 883 1,308 1,922 1,711 CCC inventory : 2 0 0 0 Free stocks : 881 1,308 1,922 1,711 Outstanding loans : 179 310 325 325 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.71 2.45 1.80- 2.20 1.80- 2.20 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-343-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 13.2 10.1 9.7 9.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 11.9 9.4 7.8 7.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.5 69.5 67.5 66.5 Beginning stocks : 18 47 36 49 Production : 803 653 529 521 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 821 701 565 570 Feed : 524 387 275 275 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 45 45 Total domestic : 569 442 320 320 Exports : 205 210 195 195 Use, total : 774 652 515 515 Ending stocks, total : 47 49 50 55 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.34 2.20 1.65- 2.05 1.65- 2.05 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.1 6.9 6.4 6.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.4 6.1 6.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.5 58.3 61.3 59.9 Beginning stocks : 100 109 120 120 Production : 396 374 372 358 Imports : 37 40 35 35 Supply, total : 532 524 528 513 Feed : 220 158 210 185 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 392 330 382 357 Exports : 31 74 30 35 Use, total : 423 404 412 392 Ending stocks, total : 109 120 116 121 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.74 2.38 1.75- 2.15 1.75- 2.15 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 5.0 4.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.8 60.5 60.4 60.5 Beginning stocks : 66 67 74 74 Production : 155 176 177 170 Imports : 97 98 95 90 Supply, total : 319 341 346 334 Feed : 155 170 175 165 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 95 95 Total domestic : 250 265 270 260 Exports : 3 2 2 2 Use, total : 252 267 272 262 Ending stocks, total : 67 74 74 72 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.96 1.60 1.00- 1.40 1.10- 1.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-343-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.82 3.06 3.22 3.22 Harvested : 2.80 3.03 3.19 3.19 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,121 5,896 5,685 5,696 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.0 27.2 30.0 27.7 Production : 171.3 178.9 181.2 181.5 Imports : 10.0 9.2 10.0 10.0 Supply, total : 206.3 215.3 221.2 219.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 100.7 102.4 108.9 108.9 Exports, total 4/ : 78.4 85.2 84.0 84.0 Rough : 12.6 26.0 24.0 24.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 65.9 59.2 60.0 60.0 Use, total : 179.1 187.6 192.9 192.9 Ending stocks : 27.2 27.7 28.3 26.3 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.96 9.64 9.00-10.00 8.75- 9.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 1.96 2.26 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,777 5,380 Beginning stocks : 10.1 14.1 14.3 14.3 Production : 113.4 121.6 132.9 133.2 Supply, total 6/ : 132.2 143.7 156.3 156.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 61.6 59.7 70.9 71.9 Exports 7/ : 56.5 69.7 67.0 68.0 Use, total : 118.1 129.4 137.9 139.9 Ending stocks : 14.1 14.3 18.4 16.5 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.84 0.77 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,926 7,406 Beginning stocks : 14.3 12.1 14.7 12.3 Production : 58.0 57.2 48.2 48.3 Supply, total 6/ : 73.2 70.5 63.9 61.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.1 42.7 38.0 37.0 Exports 7/ : 22.0 15.5 17.0 16.0 Use, total : 61.0 58.2 55.0 53.0 Ending stocks : 12.1 12.3 8.9 8.8 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0; 1998/99-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-343-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 64.2 70.6 72.7 72.7 Harvested : 63.4 69.6 71.6 71.6 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 37.6 38.8 40.6 38.7 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 183 131 200 200 Production : 2,382 2,703 2,909 2,769 Imports : 9 5 6 6 Supply, total : 2,575 2,839 3,115 2,975 Crushings : 1,436 1,597 1,625 1,600 Exports : 882 877 860 830 Seed : 83 86 83 86 Residual : 43 78 62 64 Use, total : 2,443 2,639 2,630 2,580 Ending stocks : 131 200 485 395 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.35 6.45 4.65- 5.35 5.00 - 5.70 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,405 1,310 Production : 15,752 18,108 _3/ 18,280 18,080 Imports : 53 57 55 55 Supply, total : 17,821 19,685 19,740 19,445 Domestic : 14,263 15,200 15,300 15,350 Exports : 2,037 3,175 2,850 2,650 Use, total : 16,300 18,375 18,150 18,000 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,310 1,590 1,445 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.50 25.84 25.00- 25.50- : 27.00 28.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 212 210 200 275 Production : 34,210 38,070 _3/ 38,550 37,925 Imports : 102 55 50 50 Supply, total : 34,524 38,335 38,800 38,250 Domestic : 27,320 28,660 29,450 29,600 Exports : 6,994 9,400 9,100 8,400 Use, total : 34,314 38,060 38,550 38,000 Ending stocks : 210 275 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 270.90 185.54 125.00- 130.00- : 140.00 150.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,605 million bushels. WASDE-343-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :====================== : : Estimate : September October ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,488 1,495 1,495 Production 2/3/ : 7,205 7,925 7,980 7,975 Beet sugar : 4,013 4,300 4,420 4,420 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,192 3,625 3,560 3,555 Imports 2/ : 2,774 2,167 NA 2,228 TRQ 5/ : 2,277 1,741 NA 1,808 Other 6/ : 497 426 420 420 Total supply : 11,471 11,580 NA 11,698 : Exports 2/7/ : 211 185 150 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,742 9,900 10,075 10,075 Domestic food use : 9,564 9,755 9,905 9,905 Other 8/ : 178 145 170 170 Miscellaneous 9/ : 30 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,983 10,085 10,225 10,225 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,488 1,495 NA 1,473 : Stocks to use ratio : 14.9 14.8 NA 14.4 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1996/97 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1998/99 are based on October Crop Production report and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1997/98 (projected 1998/99): FL 1,925 (1,890); HI 340 (340); LA 1,265 (1,220); TX 80 (90); PR 15 (15). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1997/98 TRQ includes a forecast 50,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-343-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.63 13.81 12.87 12.87 Harvested : 12.87 13.27 10.60 10.35 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 707 680 614 616 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.61 3.97 3.88 3.89 Production : 18.94 18.79 13.56 13.29 Imports : 0.40 0.01 0.30 0.30 Supply, total : 21.95 22.78 17.74 17.48 Domestic use : 11.13 11.35 10.70 10.60 Exports : 6.87 7.50 4.60 4.50 Use, total : 17.99 18.85 15.30 15.10 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.01 0.04 0.04 0.03 Ending stocks : 3.97 3.89 2.40 2.35 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 69.3 64.9 66.2 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. 5/ Average for August 1998. WASDE-343-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 105.85 583.29 118.17 97.07 577.88 124.02 111.27 United States : 10.23 62.19 2.51 8.54 35.61 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 95.62 521.10 115.66 88.52 542.27 96.76 99.20 Major exporters 4/ : 19.47 167.91 23.16 43.89 96.39 87.15 27.00 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.01 0.45 5.08 10.18 0.80 Australia : 1.48 23.70 0.02 1.18 3.59 19.21 2.40 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.22 4.39 8.20 19.50 9.05 EU-15 : 11.12 98.51 22.90 37.87 79.51 38.26 14.76 Major importers 5/ : 37.39 173.63 36.32 15.80 206.34 2.06 38.94 Brazil : 0.22 3.20 5.57 0.00 8.40 0.00 0.58 China : 24.30 110.57 2.69 3.40 112.60 0.79 24.17 East. Europe : 7.13 26.50 4.54 10.60 31.63 0.79 5.75 N. Africa : 1.99 15.98 14.25 0.36 27.44 0.09 4.70 Pakistan : 2.90 16.91 3.01 0.45 20.12 0.00 2.70 Selected other : India : 12.00 62.10 1.45 0.35 66.84 1.70 7.00 FSU-12 6/ : 10.94 63.30 6.07 22.81 70.54 3.45 6.32 Russia : 3.19 34.90 1.98 14.65 37.81 0.60 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.72 7.70 0.00 1.50 5.10 2.25 1.07 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 111.27 611.71 115.50 102.68 587.98 117.54 135.01 United States : 12.07 68.76 2.58 8.01 35.44 28.31 19.66 Total foreign : 99.20 542.95 112.92 94.67 552.53 89.23 115.34 Major exporters 4/ : 27.00 152.95 21.50 46.23 98.62 78.95 23.88 Argentina : 0.80 14.80 0.02 0.35 4.90 10.00 0.72 Australia : 2.40 19.42 0.03 2.60 5.00 15.50 1.34 Canada : 9.05 24.28 0.20 3.37 7.37 20.17 5.99 EU-15 : 14.76 94.45 21.25 39.92 81.36 33.28 15.83 Major importers 5/ : 38.94 187.96 36.67 17.89 210.56 3.84 49.17 Brazil : 0.58 2.40 5.70 0.00 8.14 0.00 0.54 China : 24.17 123.30 1.90 5.00 115.00 1.00 33.37 East. Europe : 5.75 34.86 1.57 11.33 32.68 2.25 7.25 N. Africa : 4.70 10.18 17.50 0.31 28.35 0.09 3.94 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 3.80 0.30 20.20 0.10 2.85 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.28 1.72 0.35 68.40 0.00 9.60 FSU-12 6/ : 6.32 80.51 5.41 24.00 71.98 3.80 16.45 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.10 16.00 39.01 0.90 8.04 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.95 0.00 1.20 4.80 1.90 3.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-343-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 135.16 596.20 113.01 110.34 603.69 115.64 127.67 October : 135.01 590.62 113.31 108.76 601.82 115.29 123.81 United States : September : 19.69 69.80 2.45 10.89 38.59 29.26 24.09 October : 19.66 69.60 2.45 10.21 37.91 29.26 24.55 Total foreign : September : 115.48 526.40 110.56 99.45 565.10 86.39 103.58 October : 115.34 521.02 110.86 98.55 563.91 86.04 99.26 Major exporters 4/ : September : 24.87 161.31 21.07 51.05 103.67 74.51 29.07 October : 23.88 160.66 21.07 51.55 104.15 73.61 27.85 Argentina Sep : 0.72 11.50 0.03 0.30 4.80 6.90 0.55 Oct : 0.72 10.50 0.03 0.30 4.85 6.00 0.40 Australia Sep : 2.34 23.50 0.03 2.50 4.80 17.00 4.07 Oct : 1.34 23.50 0.03 2.50 4.80 17.00 3.07 Canada Sep : 5.99 23.15 0.20 4.20 8.20 15.50 5.64 Oct : 5.99 23.30 0.20 4.20 8.20 15.50 5.79 EU-15 Sep : 15.81 103.16 20.81 44.05 85.86 35.11 18.81 Oct : 15.83 103.36 20.81 44.55 86.31 35.11 18.58 Major importers 5/ : September : 49.16 179.03 33.26 18.86 214.53 3.39 43.54 October : 49.17 178.83 33.26 18.86 214.33 4.04 42.90 Brazil Sep : 0.54 2.55 5.90 0.00 8.40 0.00 0.59 Oct : 0.54 2.35 5.90 0.00 8.20 0.00 0.59 China Sep : 33.37 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 0.70 28.67 Oct : 33.37 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 1.00 28.37 East. Europe Sep : 7.24 33.97 1.36 12.30 34.07 2.00 6.51 Oct : 7.25 33.97 1.36 12.30 34.07 2.35 6.16 N. Africa Sep : 3.94 13.41 15.80 0.31 28.96 0.09 4.10 Oct : 3.94 13.41 15.80 0.31 28.96 0.09 4.10 Pakistan Sep : 2.85 18.50 2.00 0.30 20.80 0.20 2.35 Oct : 2.85 18.50 2.00 0.30 20.80 0.20 2.35 Selected other : India Sep : 9.60 67.00 1.50 0.35 69.80 0.00 8.30 Oct : 9.60 67.00 1.50 0.35 69.80 0.00 8.30 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 15.85 63.15 4.88 22.42 70.94 4.60 8.34 Oct : 16.45 58.65 4.88 20.82 69.44 4.00 6.54 Russia Sep : 8.04 32.00 2.00 15.00 38.00 1.00 3.04 Oct : 8.04 28.50 2.00 13.50 36.50 0.50 1.54 Kazakstan Sep : 3.22 6.50 0.00 1.30 4.90 2.80 2.02 Oct : 3.32 5.50 0.00 1.30 4.90 2.30 1.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-343-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 97.86 908.18 103.52 576.19 879.15 106.98 126.89 United States : 14.44 267.56 2.93 156.94 206.40 51.52 27.01 Total foreign : 83.42 640.62 100.59 419.25 672.75 55.45 99.88 Major exporters 4/ : 6.48 66.85 1.26 32.89 41.98 23.57 9.04 Argentina : 0.71 18.93 0.08 4.79 6.78 11.84 1.11 Australia : 0.66 10.15 0.01 4.50 5.74 4.41 0.67 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 19.14 21.78 5.43 4.81 Major importers 5/ : 24.05 197.12 64.67 172.00 234.46 24.62 26.76 EU-15 : 9.83 103.75 16.90 72.58 95.52 22.79 12.17 East. Europe : 4.16 49.65 1.85 38.47 49.75 1.71 4.21 Japan : 2.06 0.24 20.66 16.44 20.85 0.00 2.11 Mexico : 3.43 26.49 5.37 15.87 31.55 0.04 3.70 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.31 3.99 13.41 18.33 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.49 8.77 6.97 9.15 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 35.70 141.32 2.11 89.55 128.59 4.00 46.54 FSU-12 6/ : 4.93 52.15 1.63 33.46 53.83 1.55 3.32 Russia : 1.49 31.65 0.75 19.84 32.56 0.35 0.98 Ukraine : 1.74 9.51 0.03 5.70 10.19 0.23 0.86 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 126.89 888.58 100.00 583.28 880.70 103.56 134.78 United States : 27.01 265.42 2.97 159.76 211.76 45.47 38.17 Total foreign : 99.88 623.16 97.03 423.51 668.94 58.09 96.61 Major exporters 4/ : 9.04 66.80 2.04 34.73 44.34 23.45 10.08 Argentina : 1.11 24.61 0.01 5.94 8.12 15.26 2.35 Australia : 0.67 9.19 0.01 4.12 5.35 3.19 1.34 Canada : 4.81 24.94 1.51 20.32 23.17 3.60 4.49 Major importers 5/ : 26.76 207.29 63.79 173.10 234.75 24.21 38.87 EU-15 : 12.17 109.37 17.40 73.61 96.10 20.08 22.77 East. Europe : 4.21 58.30 1.07 42.35 53.53 3.09 6.96 Japan : 2.11 0.20 20.89 16.39 20.79 0.00 2.40 Mexico : 3.70 23.86 7.97 16.74 31.98 0.50 3.05 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.20 3.25 11.04 16.15 0.55 0.99 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 7.65 6.07 8.36 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 46.54 114.65 1.70 93.80 129.66 6.05 27.18 FSU-12 6/ : 3.32 67.95 1.50 37.63 58.17 3.13 11.48 Russia : 0.98 40.85 0.62 21.00 33.85 1.55 7.06 Ukraine : 0.86 15.35 0.00 8.23 12.73 0.93 2.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-343-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 132.23 894.45 99.88 583.00 886.83 102.57 139.85 October : 134.77 882.93 99.35 580.29 880.42 100.97 137.29 United States : September : 40.15 271.76 2.79 160.58 214.09 46.91 53.70 October : 38.17 271.33 2.67 162.44 215.94 47.66 48.58 Total foreign : September : 92.08 622.69 97.08 422.41 672.74 55.66 86.15 October : 96.60 611.60 96.68 417.86 664.48 53.31 88.71 Major exporters 4/ : September : 9.92 63.80 1.64 35.11 44.89 21.29 9.17 October : 10.08 61.97 1.64 35.54 45.23 19.59 8.87 Argentina Sep : 2.19 20.59 0.01 5.97 8.18 12.66 1.95 Oct : 2.35 18.99 0.01 6.37 8.48 11.16 1.71 Australia Sep : 1.34 8.81 0.01 4.56 5.74 3.23 1.19 Oct : 1.34 8.81 0.01 4.56 5.74 3.23 1.19 Canada Sep : 4.49 25.38 1.21 20.26 23.05 3.90 4.13 Oct : 4.49 25.15 1.21 20.29 23.08 3.70 4.07 Major importers 5/ : September : 38.95 199.34 62.46 171.24 233.33 26.66 40.75 October : 38.87 195.65 61.86 169.65 231.74 26.51 38.11 EU-15 Sep : 22.75 106.98 18.20 74.24 96.34 23.71 27.88 Oct : 22.76 105.07 18.10 74.05 96.10 23.86 25.97 East. Europe Sep : 6.76 50.93 0.74 40.13 51.13 2.55 4.75 Oct : 6.96 49.16 0.74 39.23 50.28 2.25 4.32 Japan Sep : 2.40 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.23 Oct : 2.40 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.23 Mexico Sep : 3.05 24.03 7.17 16.45 32.27 0.10 1.88 Oct : 3.05 24.03 7.17 16.45 32.27 0.10 1.88 Southeast Asia Sep : 1.04 14.75 2.75 11.34 16.90 0.30 1.34 Oct : 0.99 14.75 2.75 11.34 16.90 0.30 1.29 South Korea Sep : 0.75 0.49 7.70 6.00 8.21 0.00 0.73 Oct : 0.50 0.49 7.20 5.50 7.71 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China Sep : 26.29 134.65 2.30 98.40 135.75 4.10 23.39 Oct : 27.18 135.65 2.50 95.50 132.95 4.10 28.28 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 7.63 46.99 1.63 28.95 50.94 1.83 3.48 Oct : 11.48 42.19 1.63 28.95 49.59 1.33 4.38 Russia Sep : 4.21 24.90 0.75 16.25 28.60 0.55 0.71 Oct : 7.06 21.60 0.75 15.80 28.20 0.20 1.01 Ukraine Sep : 1.56 12.10 0.00 5.55 11.80 0.80 1.06 Oct : 2.56 11.10 0.00 6.10 11.10 0.80 1.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-343-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 69.08 591.41 70.98 393.90 569.20 73.24 91.29 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.34 136.21 179.19 45.60 22.43 Total foreign : 58.26 355.35 70.64 257.69 390.01 27.64 68.85 Major exporters 4/ : 2.60 24.51 0.11 6.78 11.29 12.73 3.20 Argentina : 0.40 15.50 0.00 2.78 4.32 10.83 0.75 South Africa : 2.20 9.01 0.11 4.00 6.97 1.90 2.45 Major importers 5/ : 11.82 93.88 48.28 92.72 131.63 9.73 12.62 EU-15 : 2.33 34.79 10.17 27.50 35.96 8.06 3.28 Japan : 1.07 0.00 15.96 12.00 16.10 0.00 0.93 Mexico : 2.60 18.92 3.14 7.10 22.17 0.04 2.45 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.11 3.99 13.22 18.12 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.07 8.34 6.64 8.30 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 34.70 127.47 0.08 86.00 113.35 3.89 45.00 FSU-12 6/ : 1.69 4.73 0.36 3.39 5.68 0.25 0.85 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.12 0.37 1.22 0.00 0.16 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 91.29 577.73 71.37 409.42 583.75 73.73 85.27 United States : 22.43 237.90 0.25 143.62 188.88 38.48 33.22 Total foreign : 68.85 339.83 71.12 265.79 394.87 35.25 52.05 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 26.85 0.35 7.40 12.05 14.90 3.45 Argentina : 0.75 19.30 0.00 3.40 5.00 13.50 1.55 South Africa : 2.45 7.55 0.35 4.00 7.05 1.40 1.90 Major importers 5/ : 12.62 101.30 47.99 94.80 132.95 13.30 15.66 EU-15 : 3.28 38.65 11.20 30.83 38.78 9.74 4.60 Japan : 0.93 0.00 16.20 11.80 15.90 0.00 1.23 Mexico : 2.45 17.50 4.50 7.20 21.95 0.50 2.00 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.00 3.25 10.85 15.95 0.55 0.99 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.50 6.03 7.95 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 45.00 104.30 0.25 91.00 117.55 6.00 26.00 FSU-12 6/ : 0.85 10.56 0.44 6.87 9.13 0.45 2.26 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.20 1.56 2.50 0.00 0.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-343-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 86.46 597.32 69.36 414.36 591.39 71.12 92.39 October : 85.27 593.82 68.86 413.59 589.19 69.96 89.90 United States : September : 35.53 247.35 0.25 146.06 193.05 41.28 48.81 October : 33.22 247.49 0.25 148.60 195.59 41.91 43.47 Total foreign : September : 50.93 349.97 69.11 268.30 398.34 29.85 43.57 October : 52.05 346.33 68.61 265.00 393.60 28.05 46.43 Major exporters 4/ : September : 3.25 25.00 0.25 7.50 12.35 13.00 3.15 October : 3.45 23.50 0.25 7.90 12.75 11.50 2.95 Argentina Sep : 1.35 16.50 0.00 3.50 5.10 11.50 1.25 Oct : 1.55 15.00 0.00 3.90 5.50 10.00 1.05 South Africa Sep : 1.90 8.50 0.25 4.00 7.25 1.50 1.90 Oct : 1.90 8.50 0.25 4.00 7.25 1.50 1.90 Major importers 5/ : September : 15.99 92.16 45.98 92.07 130.44 11.81 11.87 October : 15.66 89.76 45.48 90.82 129.24 11.51 10.15 EU-15 Sep : 4.63 34.96 11.37 30.62 38.11 9.34 3.51 Oct : 4.60 33.76 11.37 30.62 38.11 9.34 2.29 Japan Sep : 1.23 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.03 Oct : 1.23 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.03 Mexico Sep : 2.00 17.50 4.25 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Oct : 2.00 17.50 4.25 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Southeast Asia Sep : 1.04 14.55 2.75 11.15 16.70 0.30 1.34 Oct : 0.99 14.55 2.75 11.15 16.70 0.30 1.29 South Korea Sep : 0.75 0.09 7.00 5.40 7.10 0.00 0.73 Oct : 0.50 0.09 6.50 4.90 6.60 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China Sep : 25.00 122.00 0.25 95.00 121.25 4.00 22.00 Oct : 26.00 124.00 0.25 93.00 119.25 4.00 27.00 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 1.76 6.69 0.39 4.23 7.09 0.40 1.35 Oct : 2.26 5.49 0.39 4.23 6.39 0.40 1.35 Russia Sep : 0.36 1.40 0.15 0.95 1.75 0.00 0.16 Oct : 0.56 1.20 0.15 0.95 1.75 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-343-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 3/ : 50.13 380.19 17.27 379.13 20.17 51.19 United States : 0.81 5.45 0.32 3.22 2.50 0.87 Total foreign : 49.32 374.74 16.95 375.92 17.67 50.32 Major exporters 4/ : 12.33 117.28 0.00 106.54 12.48 10.59 Thailand : 0.81 13.66 0.00 8.55 5.27 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.73 3.27 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.62 51.59 7.56 59.62 1.33 5.82 Indonesia : 2.62 32.08 0.80 33.97 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China : 21.73 136.57 0.33 132.13 0.94 25.56 Japan : 2.48 9.41 0.50 9.25 0.10 3.05 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 3/ : 51.19 385.37 23.64 384.38 25.40 52.17 United States : 0.87 5.84 0.29 3.31 2.78 0.90 Total foreign : 50.32 379.52 23.35 381.07 22.62 51.27 Major exporters 4/ : 10.59 121.09 0.00 106.52 15.20 9.95 Thailand : 0.65 15.05 0.00 8.70 6.20 0.80 Vietnam : 0.00 18.17 0.00 14.57 3.60 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.82 48.48 13.23 61.14 1.15 5.23 Indonesia : 1.53 30.55 5.70 35.60 0.00 2.18 Selected other : China : 25.56 140.49 0.30 136.14 2.75 27.46 Japan : 3.05 9.12 0.60 9.20 0.75 2.82 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 52.80 378.67 19.59 387.13 21.07 44.34 October : 52.17 376.29 20.23 385.10 21.31 43.36 United States : September : 0.98 5.92 0.32 3.55 2.74 0.93 October : 0.90 5.93 0.32 3.55 2.74 0.86 Total foreign : September : 51.82 372.75 19.27 383.58 18.33 43.42 October : 51.27 370.36 19.91 381.55 18.57 42.50 Major exporters 4/ : September : 10.45 120.20 0.00 107.65 13.10 9.90 October : 9.95 118.90 0.00 106.65 13.30 8.90 Thailand Sep : 0.80 14.80 0.00 8.90 5.80 0.90 Oct : 0.80 14.80 0.00 8.90 5.80 0.90 Vietnam Sep : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Oct : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : September : 5.23 52.64 9.09 61.12 1.26 4.58 October : 5.23 52.58 9.29 61.11 1.26 4.73 Indonesia Sep : 2.18 33.00 1.50 35.20 0.00 1.48 Oct : 2.18 33.00 1.50 35.20 0.00 1.48 Selected other : China Sep : 27.46 132.00 0.50 137.50 1.00 21.46 Oct : 27.46 132.00 0.50 137.50 1.00 21.46 Japan Sep : 2.82 8.10 0.70 9.15 0.20 2.27 Oct : 2.82 7.90 0.70 9.15 0.20 2.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-343-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 17.51 131.73 36.42 115.51 135.83 36.96 12.86 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.24 39.08 42.50 24.00 3.58 Total foreign : 12.51 66.89 36.17 76.43 93.33 12.96 9.29 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.77 1.20 31.49 33.86 11.32 6.80 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.56 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.80 0.90 19.90 21.68 8.42 3.40 Major importers 4/ : 1.76 16.40 27.43 31.32 43.24 0.56 1.80 EU-15 : 0.82 1.14 15.31 14.67 16.09 0.35 0.84 Japan : 0.55 0.15 5.04 3.81 5.11 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.69 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 12.86 156.09 39.16 126.15 148.93 40.02 19.16 United States : 3.58 73.55 0.12 43.46 47.94 23.87 5.44 Total foreign : 9.29 82.54 39.04 82.69 100.99 16.15 13.73 Major exporters 3/ : 6.80 52.40 2.70 33.50 36.45 14.00 11.45 Argentina : 3.40 18.70 1.00 13.00 13.85 2.80 6.45 Brazil : 3.40 31.00 1.70 20.00 22.00 9.10 5.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.80 18.35 28.73 34.22 46.56 0.70 1.62 EU-15 : 0.84 1.57 15.56 15.39 16.71 0.50 0.76 Japan : 0.64 0.15 4.95 3.80 5.10 0.00 0.63 China : 0.00 14.73 3.00 10.45 17.55 0.18 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 19.39 156.39 38.37 128.61 150.19 38.29 25.66 October : 19.16 153.63 38.67 128.40 150.16 38.13 23.17 United States : September : 5.44 79.16 0.16 44.22 48.17 23.40 13.19 October : 5.44 75.36 0.16 43.54 47.62 22.59 10.75 Total foreign : September : 13.95 77.23 38.20 84.38 102.02 14.89 12.48 October : 13.73 78.27 38.50 84.86 102.54 15.54 12.42 Major exporters 3/ : September : 11.35 47.40 1.25 34.30 37.20 12.90 9.90 October : 11.45 48.40 1.40 34.70 37.65 13.50 10.10 Argentina Sep : 6.45 15.50 0.25 13.60 14.50 2.50 5.20 Oct : 6.45 16.50 0.40 14.00 14.95 3.00 5.40 Brazil Sep : 4.90 29.00 1.00 20.10 22.00 8.20 4.70 Oct : 5.00 29.00 1.00 20.10 22.00 8.30 4.70 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.62 17.85 29.18 34.40 46.27 0.72 1.65 October : 1.62 17.55 29.28 34.23 46.07 0.72 1.65 EU-15 Sep : 0.76 1.84 15.50 15.50 16.70 0.52 0.88 Oct : 0.76 1.84 15.50 15.50 16.70 0.52 0.88 Japan Sep : 0.63 0.18 4.70 3.65 4.96 0.00 0.54 Oct : 0.63 0.18 4.70 3.65 4.96 0.00 0.54 China Sep : 0.00 13.80 3.50 10.30 17.10 0.20 0.00 Oct : 0.00 13.50 3.60 10.13 16.90 0.20 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-343-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 4.31 91.81 34.35 92.73 33.96 3.78 United States : 0.19 31.04 0.09 24.78 6.34 0.19 Total foreign : 4.12 60.78 34.26 67.95 27.61 3.59 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.65 0.20 6.36 21.79 1.08 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.72 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.84 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.58 2.45 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 19.64 23.32 38.64 4.54 1.22 EU-15 : 1.12 11.62 14.71 22.07 4.49 0.90 China : 0.00 6.95 3.60 10.53 0.02 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.78 100.10 36.31 99.44 36.98 3.77 United States : 0.19 34.54 0.05 26.00 8.53 0.25 Total foreign : 3.59 65.56 36.26 73.44 28.46 3.52 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 30.12 0.10 7.24 22.70 1.37 Argentina : 0.25 10.60 0.00 0.39 9.90 0.56 Brazil : 0.84 15.73 0.10 5.55 10.30 0.81 India : 0.00 3.80 0.00 1.30 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.22 21.50 24.66 41.92 4.39 1.08 EU-15 : 0.90 12.01 16.24 23.86 4.36 0.92 China : 0.00 8.36 4.00 12.35 0.01 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 3.74 101.86 37.92 101.66 38.11 3.76 October : 3.77 101.66 37.92 101.64 37.99 3.72 United States : September : 0.18 34.97 0.05 26.72 8.26 0.23 October : 0.25 34.40 0.05 26.85 7.62 0.23 Total foreign : September : 3.56 66.89 37.88 74.94 29.85 3.53 October : 3.52 67.25 37.88 74.79 30.37 3.49 Major exporters 3/ : September : 1.41 30.81 0.10 7.07 23.83 1.42 October : 1.37 31.32 0.10 7.05 24.35 1.38 Argentina Sep : 0.56 11.08 0.00 0.40 10.68 0.56 Oct : 0.56 11.41 0.00 0.40 11.00 0.57 Brazil Sep : 0.81 15.81 0.10 5.75 10.15 0.82 Oct : 0.81 15.81 0.10 5.75 10.15 0.82 India Sep : 0.04 3.92 0.00 0.92 3.00 0.05 Oct : 0.00 4.10 0.00 0.90 3.20 0.00 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.08 21.54 25.62 42.69 4.43 1.12 October : 1.08 21.41 25.62 42.56 4.43 1.12 EU-15 Sep : 0.92 12.07 16.95 24.66 4.29 0.98 Oct : 0.92 12.07 16.95 24.66 4.29 0.98 China Sep : 0.00 8.24 4.40 12.64 0.00 0.00 Oct : 0.00 8.10 4.40 12.50 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-343-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 2.64 20.68 5.93 20.89 5.92 2.43 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.47 0.92 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 13.53 5.90 14.42 5.00 1.74 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.27 0.64 4.50 4.40 0.85 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.72 0.18 2.60 1.29 0.38 EU-15 : 0.20 2.63 0.46 1.80 1.32 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 2.05 1.96 3.97 0.08 0.34 China : 0.35 1.39 1.67 3.01 0.08 0.32 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.02 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.43 22.84 6.86 22.96 6.84 2.33 United States : 0.69 8.21 0.03 6.90 1.44 0.59 Total foreign : 1.74 14.63 6.83 16.07 5.40 1.73 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.77 0.69 4.61 4.86 0.85 Argentina : 0.30 2.25 0.00 0.10 2.14 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.76 0.20 2.68 1.28 0.39 EU-15 : 0.17 2.76 0.49 1.83 1.43 0.16 Major importers 4/ : 0.34 2.54 2.22 4.69 0.04 0.38 China : 0.32 1.67 1.80 3.40 0.04 0.36 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.02 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 2.37 23.15 6.69 23.08 6.77 2.37 October : 2.33 23.15 6.78 23.21 6.75 2.31 United States : September : 0.64 8.29 0.03 6.94 1.29 0.72 October : 0.59 8.20 0.03 6.96 1.20 0.66 Total foreign : September : 1.73 14.86 6.66 16.14 5.47 1.65 October : 1.73 14.95 6.76 16.24 5.54 1.65 Major exporters 3/ : September : 0.85 8.88 0.71 4.74 4.88 0.81 October : 0.85 8.95 0.71 4.74 4.95 0.82 Argentina Sep : 0.30 2.35 0.00 0.11 2.24 0.30 Oct : 0.30 2.42 0.00 0.11 2.32 0.30 Brazil Sep : 0.39 3.74 0.21 2.78 1.20 0.36 Oct : 0.39 3.74 0.21 2.78 1.20 0.36 EU-15 Sep : 0.16 2.78 0.50 1.86 1.43 0.15 Oct : 0.16 2.78 0.50 1.86 1.43 0.15 Major importers 4/ : September : 0.38 2.54 2.33 4.80 0.05 0.40 October : 0.38 2.56 2.33 4.81 0.05 0.40 China Sep : 0.36 1.65 2.00 3.57 0.05 0.38 Oct : 0.36 1.62 2.00 3.55 0.05 0.38 Pakistan Sep : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.02 Oct : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-343-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World : 33.76 89.43 29.18 88.21 26.90 0.25 37.03 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total foreign : 31.15 70.49 28.78 77.08 20.03 0.25 33.06 Major exporters 5/ : 10.13 39.45 0.59 23.48 16.01 0.07 10.61 Pakistan : 1.36 7.32 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.02 1.82 India : 3.35 13.81 0.04 12.51 1.26 0.00 3.43 Central Asia 6/ : 2.02 6.57 0.01 1.10 6.03 0.00 1.47 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.42 3.67 0.01 0.30 3.31 0.00 0.49 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.48 5.35 0.23 1.30 4.41 0.02 2.33 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.38 0.00 0.95 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 19.21 27.26 22.87 46.04 2.45 0.18 20.67 Brazil : 1.15 1.29 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.96 Mexico : 0.34 1.08 0.95 1.60 0.45 0.04 0.28 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.00 0.01 0.00 15.11 Europe : 2.03 1.95 6.22 6.65 1.61 0.05 1.88 Turkey : 0.54 3.60 1.36 4.74 0.21 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.95 0.05 8.31 8.15 0.18 0.10 1.88 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World : 37.03 91.12 26.93 88.08 26.26 0.26 40.48 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.01 11.35 7.50 0.04 3.89 Total foreign : 33.06 72.32 26.92 76.73 18.76 0.22 36.59 Major exporters 5/ : 10.61 39.32 0.93 23.85 15.54 0.08 11.40 Pakistan : 1.82 7.00 0.15 7.10 0.35 0.03 1.49 India : 3.43 12.00 0.50 12.60 0.15 0.00 3.18 Central Asia 6/ : 1.47 7.21 0.01 1.09 5.68 0.00 1.92 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.49 4.32 4/ 0.31 3.69 0.00 0.80 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.33 5.60 0.25 1.34 4.30 0.03 2.51 Australia : 0.95 3.06 4/ 0.21 2.71 0.00 1.09 Argentina : 1.04 1.30 0.05 0.49 0.85 0.01 1.05 Major importers : 20.67 29.79 20.39 45.40 1.92 0.14 23.38 Brazil : 0.96 1.75 1.85 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 0.28 0.96 1.60 2.05 0.25 0.04 0.51 China : 15.11 21.10 1.83 20.80 0.03 0.00 17.21 Europe : 1.88 2.13 6.22 6.75 1.38 0.05 2.05 Turkey : 0.56 3.80 1.45 5.00 0.10 0.00 0.71 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.05 7.43 7.41 0.16 0.05 1.75 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.05 0.07 South Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.25 1.30 0.05 0.00 0.41 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.61 million bales in 1996/97 and 1.81 million in 1997/98. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-343-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World : September : 40.51 85.34 25.86 88.00 25.68 0.27 37.76 October : 40.48 84.78 25.26 86.64 25.16 0.25 38.48 United States : September : 3.88 13.56 0.30 10.70 4.60 0.04 2.40 October : 3.89 13.29 0.30 10.60 4.50 0.03 2.35 Total foreign : September : 36.64 71.77 25.56 77.30 21.08 0.23 35.36 October : 36.59 71.49 24.96 76.04 20.66 0.23 36.13 Major exporters 5/ : September : 11.58 40.71 0.60 24.31 15.83 0.08 12.67 October : 11.40 40.49 0.60 24.11 15.69 0.08 12.61 Pakistan Sep : 1.49 7.50 0.10 7.30 0.20 0.03 1.57 Oct : 1.49 7.50 0.10 7.30 0.20 0.03 1.57 India Sep : 3.18 12.50 0.25 12.70 0.15 0.00 3.08 Oct : 3.18 12.50 0.25 12.50 0.25 0.00 3.18 Central Asia 6/Sep : 1.92 7.37 0.01 1.16 5.80 0.00 2.33 Oct : 1.92 7.37 0.01 1.16 5.65 0.00 2.48 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Sep : 0.80 4.31 4/ 0.34 3.73 0.00 1.04 Oct : 0.80 4.32 4/ 0.34 3.69 0.00 1.09 S. Hemis 8/ Sep : 2.67 6.11 0.23 1.36 4.50 0.03 3.13 Oct : 2.51 6.11 0.23 1.36 4.50 0.03 2.97 Australia Sep : 1.25 3.20 4/ 0.23 2.70 0.00 1.53 Oct : 1.09 3.20 4/ 0.23 2.70 0.00 1.37 Argentina Sep : 1.05 1.60 0.03 0.49 1.00 0.01 1.18 Oct : 1.05 1.60 0.03 0.49 1.00 0.01 1.18 Major importers Sep : 23.25 27.51 19.33 45.45 3.82 0.14 20.68 Oct : 23.38 27.47 18.83 44.48 3.55 0.14 21.51 Brazil Sep : 1.11 1.80 1.70 3.50 0.00 0.00 1.11 Oct : 1.16 1.80 1.45 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.16 Mexico Sep : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 Oct : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 China Sep : 17.21 18.80 0.75 20.30 2.00 0.00 14.46 Oct : 17.21 18.80 0.75 19.80 1.80 0.00 15.16 Europe Sep : 2.05 2.16 6.30 6.82 1.42 0.05 2.22 Oct : 2.05 2.11 6.30 6.81 1.35 0.05 2.26 Turkey Sep : 0.63 3.70 1.80 5.40 0.10 0.00 0.63 Oct : 0.71 3.70 1.55 5.20 0.10 0.00 0.66 Sel. Asia 9/ Sep : 1.74 0.05 7.33 7.23 0.15 0.05 1.69 Oct : 1.75 0.05 7.33 7.23 0.15 0.05 1.70 Indonesia Sep : 0.07 0.02 1.75 1.70 0.00 0.05 0.09 Oct : 0.07 0.02 1.75 1.70 0.00 0.05 0.09 S. Korea Sep : 0.41 4/ 1.25 1.25 0.05 0.00 0.36 Oct : 0.41 4/ 1.25 1.25 0.05 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.54 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-343-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1997 : IV : 6258 4766 11167 6831 1428 8383 19550 1667 38.2 Annual : 25384 17244 43209 27271 5478 33258 76467 6460 156.6 : 1998 : I : 6215 4687 11038 6845 1290 8258 19296 1637 39.2 II : 6463 4430 11015 6991 1321 8453 19468 1635 40.9 III : 6660 4625 11400 6925 1325 8380 19780 1660 38.7 IV *: 6275 5000 11398 7000 1350 8475 19873 1715 38.6 Annual : Sep Proj : 25653 18792 44940 27797 5311 33627 78567 6622 157.8 Oct Proj : 25613 18742 44851 27761 5286 33566 78417 6647 157.3 : 1999 : I *: 5925 4800 10846 7100 1200 8435 19281 1665 39.7 II *: 5975 4700 10788 7400 1350 8895 19683 1675 41.5 III *: 6150 4800 11061 7400 1375 8910 19971 1700 39.5 Annual : Sep Proj : 23900 19550 43915 29200 5300 35045 78960 6765 160.1 Oct Proj : 23925 19425 43815 29200 5300 35045 78860 6790 160.0 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1997 : IV : 66.61 43.53 54.0 66.5 88.2 14.53 Annual : 66.32 51.36 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.34 : 1998 : I : 61.73 34.74 56.4 55.1 79.0 14.60 II : 64.16 39.42 61.0 59.1 66.5 13.73 III : 59.00 33.33 70.4 63.4 76.0 15.23 IV *: 60-62 27-29 61-63 68-70 80-84 17.00-17.40 Annual : Sep Proj : 62-63 33-34 62-63 60-61 75-77 14.90-15.10 Oct Proj : 61.47 33.87 62.5 61.7 75.9 15.15-15.25 1999 : I *: 68-72 32-34 56-60 54-58 72-78 14.65-15.35 II *: 71-77 35-37 57-61 58-62 62-68 12.90-13.90 III *: 69-75 36-38 58-62 61-67 67-73 12.60-13.60 Annual : Sep Proj : 69-75 32-35 56-61 60-64 70-76 13.35-14.35 Oct Proj : 69-75 33-35 56-61 60-64 70-76 13.60-14.50 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-343-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1997 : 377 25490 2343 28210 2136 465 25609 66.9 1998 Proj. Sep : 465 25759 2536 28760 2110 400 26250 68.0 Oct : 465 25719 2536 28720 2110 400 26210 67.9 1999 Proj. Sep : 400 24006 2760 27166 2155 350 24661 63.3 Oct : 400 24031 2760 27191 2135 350 24706 63.4 : PORK : 1997 : 366 17274 633 18273 1044 408 16821 48.7 1998 Proj. Sep : 408 18822 640 19870 1245 475 18150 52.1 Oct : 408 18772 660 19840 1245 475 18120 52.0 1999 Proj. Sep : 475 19580 700 20755 1300 490 18965 54.0 Oct : 475 19455 700 20630 1260 490 18880 53.7 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1997 : 759 43358 3059 47176 3185 895 43096 117.8 1998 Proj. Sep : 895 45089 3272 49256 3362 892 45002 122.0 Oct : 895 45000 3292 49187 3362 892 44933 121.9 1999 Proj. Sep : 892 44064 3545 48501 3463 857 44181 119.0 Oct : 892 43964 3545 48401 3403 857 44141 118.9 : BROILERS : 1997 : 641 27041 5 27687 4664 607 22416 72.7 1998 Proj. Sep : 607 27558 5 28169 5008 600 22561 72.5 Oct : 607 27522 5 28133 4683 600 22850 73.5 1999 Proj. Sep : 600 28943 4 29547 5025 650 23872 76.1 Oct : 600 28943 4 29547 4525 650 24372 77.7 : TURKEYS : 1997 : 328 5412 1 5741 598 415 4727 17.6 1998 Proj. Sep : 415 5246 1 5663 461 400 4801 17.8 Oct : 415 5222 1 5638 421 350 4866 18.0 1999 Proj. Sep : 400 5235 1 5636 500 400 4735 17.4 Oct : 350 5235 1 5586 430 300 4855 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1997 : 975 32964 6 33944 5646 1029 27269 90.8 1998 Proj. Sep : 1029 33324 6 34359 5904 1007 27447 90.6 Oct : 1029 33264 6 34299 5539 957 27801 91.8 1999 Proj. Sep : 1007 34724 5 35736 5937 1055 28743 93.9 Oct : 957 34724 5 35686 5367 955 29363 96.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1997 : 1734 76322 3065 81120 8831 1924 70364 208.6 1998 Proj. Sep : 1924 78413 3278 83615 9266 1899 72449 212.6 Oct : 1924 78264 3298 83486 8901 1849 72735 213.7 1999 Proj. Sep : 1899 78788 3550 84237 9400 1912 72924 213.0 Oct : 1849 78688 3550 84087 8770 1812 73504 214.9 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-343-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1998 Projected : 1999 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1996 : 1997 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.2 8.5 7.4 7.4 10.0 10.0 Production : 6371.3 6459.8 6622.3 6647.3 6765.0 6790.0 Imports : 5.4 6.9 5.9 5.9 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6387.9 6475.2 6635.6 6660.6 6779.0 6804.0 : Use : Exports : 253.1 227.8 226.2 226.2 243.0 243.0 Hatching use : 863.8 894.8 921.1 921.1 970.0 970.0 Ending stocks : 8.5 7.4 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5262.4 5345.2 5478.3 5503.3 5556.0 5581.0 Per capita (number) : 237.8 239.4 243.2 244.4 244.5 245.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Proj 1/: 1998/99 Proj 1/ Commodity :1995/96:1996/97:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.9 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.8 Production : 154.1 156.4 157.2 156.9 159.5 159.2 Farm use : 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 152.5 155.0 155.8 155.6 158.2 157.9 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 3.4 4.0 3.3 3.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 159.9 162.7 165.1 165.5 166.8 167.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.9 156.1 158.9 159.0 160.5 161.2 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.9 5.9 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 1.1 2.7 4.5 4.5 3.7 3.5 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) : 13.50 11.88 13.25- 13.28 12.30- 12.55- : 13.35 13.10 13.35 All milk 5/ : 14.49 13.53 14.45- 14.52 14.00- 14.30- : 14.55 14.80 15.10 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 24 24 20 15 15 Cheese : 5 10 8 8 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 84 222 370 370 305 290 Dry whole milk : 7 7 15 14 9 9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-343-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 17-year record of the differences between the October projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the October projection and the final estimate have averaged 8.4 million tons (1.6%) ranging from -26.7 to 9.5 million tons. The October projection has been below the estimate 10 times and above 7 times. Reliability of October Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.6 8.4 -26.7 9.5 10 7 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 9 6 Foreign : 1.9 8.4 -26.8 9.6 10 7 Exports : World : 3.4 3.9 -12.1 3.0 11 5 U.S. : 8.2 2.9 -10.0 5.2 7 10 Foreign : 4.5 3.5 -10.0 3.9 13 4 Domestic use : World : 1.3 6.6 -22.7 7.0 10 7 U.S. : 6.2 1.9 -3.3 3.6 7 10 Foreign : 1.3 6.3 -20.3 9.2 11 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.1 7.3 -23.8 13.5 10 7 U.S. : 10.6 2.6 -4.9 6.8 8 9 Foreign : 6.0 5.6 -22.8 7.5 11 6 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.4 11.6 -33.7 9.6 12 5 U.S. : 2.6 5.7 -14.5 17.9 12 5 Foreign : 1.5 9.0 -21.1 7.5 13 4 Exports : World : 5.8 5.9 -12.0 13.7 10 6 U.S. : 14.8 7.8 -14.9 15.5 8 9 Foreign : 12.0 6.0 -12.4 8.9 9 8 Domestic use : World : 1.2 9.8 -22.6 19.2 9 8 U.S. : 3.6 6.4 -13.4 17.0 8 9 Foreign : 1.3 8.3 -19.1 17.2 10 7 Ending stocks : World : 9.7 13.1 -39.0 14.9 12 5 U.S. : 19.4 10.5 -29.1 16.3 8 9 Foreign : 11.8 8.2 -16.7 7.2 14 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.5 -20.9 3.0 15 1 U.S. : 3.1 0.2 -0.4 0.3 9 8 Foreign : 2.3 7.5 -21.0 3.1 15 2 Exports : World : 8.3 1.4 -4.5 1.1 12 5 U.S. : 7.7 0.2 -0.8 0.6 8 8 Foreign : 10.1 1.4 -4.5 1.2 12 5 Domestic use : World : 1.8 5.7 -20.3 2.5 14 3 U.S. : 5.8 0.1 -0.3 0.4 9 8 Foreign : 1.8 5.7 -20.7 2.7 14 3 Ending stocks : World : 10.2 3.6 -8.6 3.2 12 5 U.S. : 13.6 0.2 -0.7 0.3 9 7 Foreign : 11.0 3.7 -8.6 3.0 12 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-343-30 Reliability of October Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.6 2.9 -9.3 4.5 8 9 U.S. : 2.8 1.5 -3.2 3.1 8 9 Foreign : 4.8 2.6 -9.1 4.0 8 9 Exports : World : 5.1 1.5 -3.5 2.5 12 5 U.S. : 9.2 1.8 -2.9 5.8 10 7 Foreign : 16.5 1.3 -3.6 2.5 8 9 Domestic use : World : 2.8 3.2 -7.6 2.9 10 7 U.S. : 3.3 1.2 -4.3 1.3 13 4 Foreign : 3.6 2.6 -4.7 3.6 11 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.9 2.3 -5.2 5.3 8 9 U.S. : 28.5 2.1 -4.2 4.5 5 12 Foreign : 15.0 1.6 -3.6 3.3 9 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.6 3.0 -10.1 9.9 9 7 U.S. : 3.6 0.5 -1.4 1.2 11 6 Foreign : 4.3 2.9 -10.4 10.2 8 8 Exports : World : 4.2 1.0 -3.1 1.3 8 9 U.S. : 14.4 0.8 -2.4 1.5 9 8 Foreign : 6.2 1.1 -3.2 1.8 7 10 Mill use : World : 2.3 1.8 -6.1 3.4 7 10 U.S. : 5.0 0.4 -0.9 0.9 11 5 Foreign : 2.3 1.7 -5.6 4.0 7 10 Ending stocks : World : 13.0 4.5 -11.0 12.4 8 8 U.S. : 24.3 1.0 -2.0 2.3 5 12 Foreign : 14.1 4.3 -11.5 11.7 11 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 17 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-343-31 Reliability of United States October Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 2.8 206 -541 618 11 6 Exports : 15.3 275 -575 533 7 10 Domestic use : 4.1 238 -558 530 9 8 Ending stocks : 22.1 376 -1187 629 8 9 : SORGHUM : Production : 3.7 25 -59 71 10 7 Exports : 18.9 45 -115 97 9 8 Domestic use : 8.9 44 -114 78 8 9 Ending stocks : 39.5 51 -142 110 6 11 : BARLEY : Production : 1.3 6 -12 24 7 7 Exports : 30.4 18 -37 38 9 7 Domestic use : 5.7 23 -47 70 9 7 Ending stocks : 10.5 18 -38 56 10 7 : OATS : Production : 0.9 4 -18 16 6 5 Exports : 81.9 2 -4 8 4 8 Domestic use : 3.6 14 -39 36 8 8 Ending stocks : 15.6 21 -46 47 12 5 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.1 912 -2388 1050 12 5 Exports : 9.7 649 -1950 741 7 9 Domestic use : 2.8 604 -1250 1075 11 6 Ending stocks : 30.3 70 -179 198 6 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.4 465 -1310 791 12 5 Exports : 23.2 354 -1125 910 10 7 Domestic use : 2.6 322 -985 450 13 4 Ending stocks : 26.1 371 -791 750 6 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.6 828 -716 2038 9 6 Pork : 2.8 484 -1240 1592 8 7 Broilers : 2.1 327 -629 546 12 3 Turkeys : 2.2 77 -123 211 11 4 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.8 97 -111 163 10 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.8 -6.2 4.6 7 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 17 for crops and 15 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1997 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1996/97 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----- End of File -----