WASDE-405 December 11, 2003 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are 25 million bushels lower than last month due to a 25- million-bushel increase in exports. The projection for larger exports is based on stronger-than-expected shipments to date and an increase in the world wheat import forecast. All of the increase in exports is projected to occur in the HRW class. Projected imports and domestic use are unchanged. However, changes in the allocation of imports by class result in an 18-million- bushel increase in SRW supplies and ending stocks. Offsetting decreases in HRW and White wheat supplies and ending stocks also are projected. Similar, but smaller, changes are made in the by-class estimates for 2002/03. The December 15 ERS Wheat Outlook report will provide more details. The projected 2003/04 wheat price range is up 10 cents on the lower end to $3.20 to $3.40 per bushel. Projected 2003/04 global wheat production and stocks are up from last month. Projected production is up over 2 million tons due to increases in the crops of Australia, Brazil, Canada, Eastern Europe, and Iran. Crops are reduced for Argentina, the EU, and South Africa. Projected global imports are up about 1.5 million tons from last month due to larger imports by China, the EU, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Madagascar, and South Africa. Projected imports are reduced for Iran. Projected global stocks are raised just over 1.5 million tons due primarily to larger stocks in Australia, China, the EU, and Turkey. Noteworthy reductions in stocks are projected for India, the United States, and Tunisia. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2003/04 U.S. feed grain ending stocks are lowered by just over 1 million tons because of larger exports. Projected corn exports are 50 million bushels larger than last month due to less competition from Argentina, the stronger-than-expected pace of corn export sales to date, and recent sales made to non-traditional markets (Malaysia and Indonesia). Projected corn feed and residual use is unchanged. Despite a significant export price premium for sorghum versus corn, projected sorghum exports are up 10 million bushels due to larger-than-expected sales to the EU. The EU applies a lower import duty to sorghum than to corn. However, projected sorghum feed and residual is lowered 10 million bushels. Projected corn ending stocks are down 50 million bushels from last month but projected sorghum stocks are unchanged. Because of stronger- than-expected prices and a reduction in corn ending stocks, the projected 2003/04 price range for corn is raised 10 cents on each end to $2.00 to $2.40 per bushel. Global 2003/04 coarse grain supply and use are projected to be up slightly but stocks are down from last month. Production is projected to be up just over 1 million tons due to larger crops in Australia, Canada, Eastern Europe, Russia, and Iran. However, smaller crops are projected in Argentina (both corn and sorghum) and the EU. Global coarse grain use is up nearly 3 million tons this month due primarily to increased use in Australia, Canada, the EU, Eastern Europe, the FSU-12, and Morocco. However, use is lowered in Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States. Global coarse grain imports are projected fractionally lower than last month as imports are projected to decline for Japan, Korea, and Mexico but increase for the EU. Projected global coarse grain stocks are down nearly 2 million tons from last month because of significant reductions in Argentina, the EU, the FSU-12, Mexico, South Africa, and the United States. However, there are some offsetting increases in the stocks of Australia, Brazil, Canada, Eastern Europe, and Japan as well as an increase of over 1 million tons in Saudi Arabia's barley stocks. RICE: No changes are made to the U.S. 2003/04 rice supply and use projections or projected season-average farm price from a month ago. Global 2003/04 rice production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks are raised from last month. The increase in global rice production is due primarily to larger crops projected for Iran and Argentina. Rice exports are raised slightly for Argentina and India. Global rice ending stocks in 2003/04 are projected at 84.2 million tons, up 1.2 million tons from last month. The increase is due primarily to increases in Vietnam and Iran. Note: The rice consumption and stocks series for Vietnam are revised from 1997/98 to 2003/04 based in part on information received from the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Hanoi and further analysis in Washington, D.C. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at 76.5 million tons, unchanged from last month. U.S. soybean supply and use projections are also unchanged, leaving stocks at 125 million bushels. Soybean oil production is reduced 75 million pounds based on a lower extraction rate. Soybean oil consumption and stocks are both reduced, reflecting lower production. Increased canola oil imports from Canada are expected to offset reduced soybean oil consumption. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2003/04 is projected at $6.85 to $7.65 per bushel compared with $6.65 to $7.55 last month. The soybean oil price is forecast at 26 to 29 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents on both ends of the range as tight U.S. soybean oil stocks push prices to the highest level in 9 years. The season-average soybean meal price is forecast at $215 to $240 per short ton, up $5 on the lower end of the range. Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at 344.9 million tons, down 2.6 million tons from last month. Foreign production, projected at 268.4 million tons, is also down 2.6 million tons. Lower production of soybeans, peanuts, and sunflowerseed is only partially offset by increased rapeseed production. Argentina's soybean production is forecast at 36.5 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from last month. Increased area resulting from planting delays for other crops is more than offset by lower expected yields. Sunflowerseed and peanut production are also reduced for Argentina as dry weather has led producers to reduce plantings for these crops. Canada's rapeseed production is increased 0.3 million tons to 6.7 million tons, and soybean production is reduced 0.4 million tons to 2.3 million tons based on official Canadian data. Other changes include lower peanut production for Senegal and reduced sunflowerseed production for Turkey. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2003/04 is increased 74,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, based on processors' production projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Beet sugar production is up 78,000 tons, more than offsetting a small decrease in cane sugar. Total use is unchanged. The total stocks-to-use ratio is 20.6 percent, compared with 19.8 percent last month. The balance sheet for 2002/03 reflects minor changes. Note: "Deliveries" in the sugar table has been renamed "sales" to indicate change of ownership, consistent with the change in the Sweetener Market Data report. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The total meat production forecast for 2003 is reduced as lower expected beef production more than offsets higher expected pork production. Fourth-quarter beef production forecasts are reduced from last month as the pace of cattle slaughter and slaughter weights have been well below last year. Conversely, the pace of hog slaughter has been higher than expected and the fourth-quarter forecast of pork production is raised. Changes in broiler and turkey production forecasts reflect NASS third-quarter slaughter data. Forecast beef production for 2004 is unchanged from last month. Production is expected to be below 2003 as lower cattle inventories and slaughter more than offset an expected recovery in weights. Imports of Canadian cattle will not be assumed until a resumption of trade is announced by the U.S. government. The production forecast for pork is raised as large imports of hogs from Canada are expected to continue into early 2004. NASS will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December 30, providing an indication of U.S. producers' production intentions for 2004. Total poultry production for 2004 is raised as higher forecast broiler production more than offsets a reduced turkey production forecast. Eggs set data point to more rapid growth in broiler production than forecast last month. Turkey production forecasts are reduced from last month as weak returns are now expected to keep production below year-earlier levels through the middle of 2004. Egg production in 2004 is forecast to rise slightly from 2003 as producers respond to high prices. Tight supplies of Choice cattle and beef continue to drive prices upward. The fourth-quarter Choice steer price is now forecast at $102 to $103 per cwt, but the 2003 annual average price is expected to remain near $85 per cwt. Steer prices in 2004 are raised as prices will reflect continued tight cattle markets. Hog price forecasts are raised in 2003 despite higher expected production as prices are receiving support from high beef prices. The 2004 price forecast is raised slightly from last month. Broiler price forecasts for the last quarter of 2003 and 2004 are increased from last month as high beef prices are expected to boost demand for broiler meat next year. Turkey prices are forecast slightly higher in 2003 but the forecast for 2004 is unchanged from last month. The egg price forecast is increased for 2003 and early 2004 as supplies of eggs remain relative tight. The dairy production forecast for 2003/04 is reduced 400 million pounds from last month. Milk per cow continues to lag long-term trends. The stocks forecast is also reduced from last month. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised to reflect the tighter supplies. The all milk price is forecast to be $12.35 to $12.95 in 2003/04. COTTON: U.S. projections for 2003/04 are unchanged this month. The world projections for 2003/04 include marginally higher beginning stocks and production and lower consumption, resulting in slightly larger ending stocks. Production is raised in India and Turkmenistan, partially offset by reductions in Turkey and elsewhere. Consumption is reduced mainly in India and Turkey, with smaller reductions in a number of countries. Projected ending stocks are raised nearly 2 percent to 32.2 million bales, which would be the smallest world stocks since 1994/95. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on January 12, 2004. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2004: Jan. 12, Feb. 10, Mar. 10, Apr. 8, May 12, June 11, July 12, Aug. 12, Sep. 10, Oct. 12, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. Mark Your Calendar for Outlook Forum 2004 USDA will hold the 80th Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19-20, 2004, in Arlington, Virginia. Details will be announced in the fall. To receive detailed information, send your address to agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to Outlook Forum 2004, USDA/WAOB, Mail Stop 3812 South Building, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. 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WASDE-405-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 1,872.88 2,416.82 238.58 1,902.25 514.57 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,816.84 2,331.41 239.30 1,915.99 415.42 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 1,821.47 2,234.27 221.83 1,917.04 317.23 December : 1,825.60 2,241.02 224.90 1,922.93 318.09 Wheat : 2001/02 : 581.86 787.59 108.04 586.48 201.11 2002/03 (Est.) : 566.84 767.95 106.60 602.39 165.56 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 548.24 711.96 98.56 585.66 126.31 December : 550.51 716.07 100.24 588.14 127.93 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 892.42 1,081.17 103.51 904.63 176.54 2002/03 (Est.) : 869.90 1,046.44 105.39 903.44 143.01 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 882.58 1,025.98 97.75 918.06 107.92 December : 883.78 1,026.79 98.91 920.86 105.94 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 398.60 548.06 27.03 411.14 136.92 2002/03 (Est.) : 380.09 517.01 27.31 410.16 106.85 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 390.64 496.32 25.52 413.32 83.00 December : 391.30 498.15 25.75 413.93 84.22 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 321.84 405.18 84.29 253.47 67.42 2002/03 (Est.) : 295.63 368.18 72.98 250.10 45.11 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 349.37 399.76 85.26 258.82 55.68 December : 349.37 399.76 87.47 258.57 53.73 Wheat : 2001/02 : 53.26 80.04 26.19 32.70 21.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 44.06 67.32 23.25 30.70 13.37 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 63.59 79.00 29.26 33.20 16.55 December : 63.59 79.00 29.94 33.20 15.86 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 261.86 317.12 55.15 216.92 45.05 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.03 292.64 45.87 215.87 30.91 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 279.58 313.22 53.03 221.74 38.45 December : 279.58 313.22 54.56 221.49 37.18 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 6.71 8.02 2.95 3.85 1.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.54 0.83 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 6.20 7.54 2.97 3.88 0.69 December : 6.20 7.54 2.97 3.88 0.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-405-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 1,551.04 2,011.64 154.28 1,648.78 447.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,521.21 1,963.22 166.32 1,665.89 370.31 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 1,472.10 1,834.51 136.57 1,658.22 261.55 December : 1,476.22 1,841.25 137.43 1,664.36 264.36 Wheat : 2001/02 : 528.60 707.56 81.85 553.79 179.96 2002/03 (Est.) : 522.78 700.63 83.35 571.70 152.19 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 484.66 632.96 69.31 552.45 109.76 December : 486.92 637.07 70.30 554.93 112.07 Coarse grains 5/ : 2001/02 : 630.56 764.05 48.36 687.71 131.49 2002/03 (Est.) : 624.88 753.80 59.52 687.57 112.10 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 603.00 712.76 44.72 696.32 69.47 December : 604.21 713.58 44.36 699.37 68.76 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 391.89 540.04 24.07 407.29 135.71 2002/03 (Est.) : 373.55 508.79 23.46 406.63 106.02 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 384.44 488.78 22.55 409.44 82.32 December : 385.10 490.61 22.78 410.05 83.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2001/02 : 98.52 141.16 29.09 94.58 46.94 2002/03 (Est.) : 88.03 134.98 30.61 97.93 36.87 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 92.14 128.91 32.26 97.69 31.66 December : 92.17 129.04 32.11 97.17 32.19 : United States 2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.38 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 18.22 23.65 13.20 6.20 4.25 December : 18.22 23.65 13.20 6.20 4.25 : Foreign 3/ 2001/02 : 78.22 114.84 18.09 86.88 39.49 2002/03 (Est.) : 70.82 110.25 18.71 90.66 31.48 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 73.93 105.26 19.06 91.49 27.41 December : 73.96 105.39 18.91 90.97 27.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-405-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 324.90 360.67 64.31 264.65 36.93 2002/03 (Est.) : 328.96 365.89 72.82 269.06 41.95 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 347.52 388.89 78.64 288.71 40.68 December : 344.93 386.89 78.53 287.51 39.92 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 183.04 188.46 53.84 184.12 5.81 2002/03 (Est.) : 187.20 193.01 55.33 188.94 5.39 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 200.32 205.85 60.92 199.51 5.75 December : 199.62 205.00 60.81 199.12 5.52 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 92.40 101.18 33.85 92.22 8.09 2002/03 (Est.) : 94.35 102.44 36.35 95.71 6.15 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 100.94 107.25 36.97 100.37 6.73 December : 100.68 106.84 37.20 99.97 6.54 : : United States Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.97 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Est.) : 83.78 91.20 29.45 47.52 5.59 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 76.54 82.98 25.11 44.60 4.37 December : 76.54 82.98 25.11 44.58 4.38 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 38.89 40.34 7.06 33.00 0.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 36.65 38.06 5.65 32.17 0.24 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 34.33 36.09 4.30 31.56 0.23 December : 34.33 36.09 4.30 31.57 0.23 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 9.64 12.88 1.55 10.03 1.31 2002/03 (Est.) : 9.22 12.06 1.24 9.93 0.89 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 8.64 11.28 0.63 9.94 0.71 December : 8.61 11.27 0.64 9.93 0.70 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 235.07 262.37 34.34 214.02 30.06 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.18 274.69 43.37 221.53 36.36 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 270.98 305.91 53.53 244.11 36.31 December : 268.39 303.90 53.42 242.94 35.55 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 144.15 148.11 46.77 151.12 5.52 2002/03 (Est.) : 150.55 154.95 49.68 156.78 5.15 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 166.00 169.76 56.62 167.96 5.52 December : 165.29 168.91 56.52 167.55 5.30 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 82.76 88.30 32.30 82.20 6.78 2002/03 (Est.) : 85.13 90.39 35.12 85.79 5.26 2003/04 (Proj.) : November : 92.30 95.97 36.33 90.43 6.02 December : 92.08 95.57 36.57 90.04 5.84 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-405-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.6 60.5 61.7 61.7 Harvested : 48.6 45.9 52.8 52.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 40.2 35.3 44.2 44.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 876 777 491 491 Production : 1,957 1,619 2,337 2,337 Imports : 108 77 75 75 Supply, total : 2,941 2,473 2,903 2,903 Food : 926 918 910 910 Seed : 84 84 85 85 Feed and residual : 191 126 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,201 1,128 1,220 1,220 Exports : 962 854 1,075 1,100 Use, total : 2,164 1,982 2,295 2,320 Ending stocks : 777 491 608 583 CCC inventory : 99 66 60 60 Free stocks : 678 425 548 523 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 3.10- 3.40 3.20- 3.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 612 354 332 241 79 1,619 Supply, total 3/ : 975 607 424 325 142 2,473 Domestic use : 480 204 264 103 77 1,128 Exports : 307 258 105 147 37 854 Use, total : 787 462 369 250 114 1,982 Ending stocks, total : 188 145 55 75 28 491 : 2003/04 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,063 500 379 298 97 2,337 Supply, total 3/ : 1,256 660 452 380 155 2,903 Domestic use : 486 252 281 116 85 1,220 Exports : 500 255 125 180 40 1,100 Use, total : 986 506 406 296 125 2,320 Ending stocks, total : December : 270 153 46 83 30 583 November : 308 153 28 88 30 608 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-405-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 95.4 98.7 98.5 98.5 Harvested : 83.6 82.8 86.5 86.5 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.13 2.96 3.23 3.23 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 30.9 30.9 Production : 261.7 244.9 279.3 279.3 Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 316.8 292.3 312.9 312.9 Feed and residual : 158.5 151.2 153.2 153.0 Food, seed & industrial : 58.1 64.3 68.2 68.2 Domestic, total : 216.6 215.5 221.4 221.2 Exports : 55.1 45.9 53.0 54.6 Use, total : 271.7 261.4 274.4 275.7 Ending stocks, total : 45.0 30.9 38.4 37.2 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 44.9 30.8 38.4 37.1 Outstanding loans : 5.6 7.1 8.3 8.3 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 75.8 79.1 79.1 79.1 Harvested : 68.8 69.3 71.8 71.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.2 130.0 143.2 143.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,086 1,086 Production : 9,507 9,008 10,278 10,278 Imports : 10 14 10 10 Supply, total : 11,416 10,619 11,374 11,374 Feed and residual : 5,861 5,642 5,700 5,700 Food, seed & industrial : 2,054 2,298 2,450 2,450 Domestic, total : 7,915 7,940 8,150 8,150 Exports : 1,905 1,592 1,875 1,925 Use, total : 9,820 9,533 10,025 10,075 Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,086 1,349 1,299 CCC inventory : 6 5 3 3 Free stocks : 1,590 1,081 1,346 1,296 Outstanding loans : 213 277 320 320 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.32 1.90- 2.30 2.00- 2.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-405-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.3 9.6 9.5 9.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.3 7.9 7.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.7 51.0 51.0 Beginning stocks : 42 61 43 43 Production : 515 370 400 400 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 556 431 443 443 Feed and residual : 208 158 165 155 Food, seed & industrial : 45 45 45 45 Total domestic : 253 203 210 200 Exports : 242 186 190 200 Use, total : 495 388 400 400 Ending stocks, total : 61 43 43 43 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.32 1.95- 2.35 2.05- 2.45 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.7 4.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.2 54.9 58.9 58.9 Beginning stocks : 106 93 69 69 Production : 249 227 276 276 Imports : 24 18 30 30 Supply, total : 380 338 375 375 Feed and residual : 88 65 85 85 Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 173 173 Total domestic : 260 238 258 258 Exports : 26 30 25 25 Use, total : 287 269 283 283 Ending stocks, total : 93 69 92 92 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.72 2.65- 2.95 2.65- 2.95 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.6 4.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.4 56.7 65.0 65.0 Beginning stocks : 73 63 50 50 Production : 117 119 145 145 Imports : 96 95 100 100 Supply, total : 286 277 294 294 Feed and residual : 148 152 145 145 Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 73 Total domestic : 220 224 218 218 Exports : 3 3 2 2 Use, total : 223 227 220 220 Ending stocks, total : 63 50 74 74 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.25- 1.55 1.25- 1.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-405-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.33 3.24 3.00 3.00 Harvested : 3.31 3.21 2.98 2.98 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,496 6,578 6,656 6,656 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 26.8 26.8 Production : 215.3 211.0 198.2 198.2 Imports : 13.2 14.8 16.0 16.0 Supply, total : 256.9 264.8 241.0 241.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.3 113.4 124.0 124.0 Exports, total 4/ : 94.7 124.6 95.0 95.0 Rough : 32.2 43.0 42.0 42.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.5 81.5 53.0 53.0 Use, total : 218.0 238.0 219.0 219.0 Ending stocks : 39.0 26.8 22.0 22.0 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.8 68.3 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.22 7.00- 7.50 7.00- 7.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260 Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 15.7 15.7 Production : 167.6 157.2 146.0 146.0 Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.1 172.2 172.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.7 79.2 87.8 87.8 Exports 8/ : 73.8 99.2 74.0 74.0 Use, total : 161.6 178.4 161.8 161.8 Ending stocks : 26.8 15.7 10.4 10.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729 Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 9.3 9.3 Production : 47.7 53.7 52.2 52.2 Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 68.9 67.0 67.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.5 34.3 36.2 36.2 Exports 8/ : 20.9 25.3 21.0 21.0 Use, total : 56.4 59.6 57.2 57.2 Ending stocks : 10.7 9.3 9.8 9.8 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-405-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.1 73.9 73.6 73.6 Harvested : 73.0 72.4 72.5 72.5 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 39.6 38.0 33.8 33.8 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 248 208 169 169 Production : 2,891 2,749 2,452 2,452 Imports : 2 5 8 8 Supply, total : 3,141 2,962 2,629 2,629 Crushings : 1,700 1,615 1,485 1,485 Exports : 1,064 1,045 890 890 Seed : 90 90 91 90 Residual : 79 42 39 39 Use, total : 2,933 2,793 2,505 2,505 Ending stocks : 208 169 125 125 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.53 6.65- 7.55 6.85 - 7.65 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,767 2,358 1,485 1,491 Production : 18,898 18,438 16,735 16,660 Imports : 46 46 85 85 Supply, total : 21,711 20,843 18,305 18,236 Domestic : 16,833 17,091 16,300 16,250 Exports : 2,519 2,261 850 850 Use, total : 19,353 19,352 17,150 17,100 Ending stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,155 1,136 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 22.04 24.50- 26.00- : 27.50 29.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 383 240 220 220 Production : 40,292 38,213 35,340 35,340 Imports : 143 166 340 340 Supply, total : 40,819 38,619 35,900 35,900 Domestic : 33,070 32,386 31,200 31,200 Exports : 7,508 6,013 4,500 4,500 Use, total : 40,579 38,399 35,700 35,700 Ending stocks : 240 220 200 200 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 181.57 210.00- 215.00- : 240.00 240.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-405-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===================== : : Estimate : November December ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 2,180 1,426 1,305 1,305 Production 2/ : 7,900 8,378 8,895 8,969 Beet sugar : 3,915 4,415 4,720 4,798 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,985 3,963 4,175 4,171 Imports : 1,535 1,713 1,584 1,584 TRQ 4/ : 1,158 1,200 1,224 1,224 Other program 5/ : 296 488 325 325 Other 6/ : 81 25 35 35 Supply, total : 11,615 11,517 11,784 11,858 : Exports 7/ : 137 142 160 160 Sales for dom. use 8/ : 10,082 9,976 9,675 9,675 Food : 9,894 9,769 9,450 9,450 Other 9/ : 188 207 225 225 Miscellaneous 10/ : -30 94 0 0 Use, total : 10,189 10,212 9,835 9,835 Ending stocks : 1,426 1,305 1,949 2,023 : Stocks to use ratio : 14.0 12.8 19.8 20.6 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service and Bureau of the Census. 2/ Production for 2003/04 is based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Production by state for 2002/03 (projected 2003/04): FL 2,127 (2,137); HI 276 (286); LA 1,369 (1,566); TX 191 (182); PR 0 (0). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2003/04, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Indicates change of ownership, not necessarily delivery. 9/ Transfer to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-405-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.77 13.96 13.63 13.63 Harvested : 13.83 12.43 12.11 12.11 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 665 722 722 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 5.39 5.39 Production : 20.30 17.21 18.22 18.22 Imports : 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 26.32 24.72 23.65 23.65 Domestic use : 7.70 7.27 6.20 6.20 Exports : 11.00 11.90 13.20 13.20 Use, total : 18.70 19.17 19.40 19.40 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.17 0.00 0.00 Ending stocks : 7.45 5.39 4.25 4.25 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 44.5 61.8 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-October 2003. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2003/04 is 22.0 percent. WASDE-405-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 205.73 581.86 108.25 107.86 586.48 108.04 201.11 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.20 32.70 26.19 21.15 Total foreign : 181.88 528.60 105.32 102.66 553.79 81.85 179.96 Major exporters 4/ : 27.51 151.91 10.25 52.98 108.98 54.25 26.44 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.07 1.14 Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.69 7.57 16.27 6.73 EU-15 : 12.73 90.99 9.82 46.50 91.10 11.49 10.94 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 142.32 48.95 12.45 204.20 3.65 92.03 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.47 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.90 1.69 10.94 30.54 4.15 6.73 India : 21.50 69.68 0.03 0.50 65.12 3.09 23.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.56 20.45 69.31 13.81 17.14 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48 Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.18 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 3.00 13.44 5.49 2.96 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 201.11 566.84 106.20 113.00 602.39 106.60 165.56 United States : 21.15 44.06 2.11 3.44 30.70 23.25 13.37 Total foreign : 179.96 522.78 104.10 109.56 571.70 83.35 152.19 Major exporters 4/ : 26.44 142.43 12.89 58.86 116.64 41.36 23.76 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.18 6.50 1.77 Australia : 7.63 10.06 0.50 3.38 6.10 9.15 2.94 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.12 8.26 9.40 5.65 EU-15 : 10.94 103.87 12.00 51.28 97.10 16.32 13.40 Major importers 5/ : 92.03 138.75 45.98 10.20 198.68 4.64 73.44 Brazil : 0.90 2.94 6.73 0.45 9.90 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.43 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 N. Africa 6/ : 5.66 11.17 18.61 0.30 29.47 0.30 5.68 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.25 0.40 18.38 1.18 1.50 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.15 1.70 8.99 0.37 1.40 Selected other : East. Europe : 6.73 30.46 1.99 9.99 29.54 4.65 4.99 India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.64 4.50 15.70 FSU-12 8/ : 17.14 97.39 3.67 24.06 74.22 24.86 19.12 Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.52 16.00 39.32 12.62 5.61 Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.50 6.66 Ukraine : 2.96 20.55 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.25 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-405-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 163.72 548.24 94.44 101.86 585.66 98.56 126.31 December : 165.56 550.51 95.92 102.36 588.14 100.24 127.93 United States : November : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 33.20 29.26 16.55 December : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 33.20 29.94 15.86 Total foreign : November : 150.35 484.66 92.40 95.74 552.45 69.31 109.76 December : 152.19 486.92 93.88 96.24 554.93 70.30 112.07 Major exporters 4/ : November : 21.84 151.00 4.17 55.08 112.18 48.50 16.34 December : 23.76 151.50 5.17 55.58 113.18 48.00 19.25 Argentina Nov : 1.77 13.00 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.00 1.50 Dec : 1.77 12.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 7.50 1.50 Australia Nov : 2.26 24.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 17.50 2.58 Dec : 2.94 24.50 0.01 3.50 6.20 17.50 3.75 Canada Nov : 6.07 22.00 0.15 3.50 7.70 14.50 6.02 Dec : 5.65 23.50 0.15 3.50 7.70 15.50 6.10 EU-15 Nov : 11.74 92.00 4.00 48.00 93.00 8.50 6.24 Dec : 13.40 91.00 5.00 48.50 94.00 7.50 7.90 Major importers 5/ : November : 73.64 140.64 39.45 9.45 196.81 3.00 53.93 December : 73.44 142.54 39.45 9.45 197.71 3.49 54.23 Brazil Nov : 0.63 4.70 5.60 0.35 10.00 0.01 0.92 Dec : 0.66 5.20 5.60 0.35 10.00 0.50 0.96 China Nov : 60.38 87.00 0.50 6.00 104.50 1.30 42.08 Dec : 60.38 87.00 1.00 6.00 104.50 1.30 42.58 N. Africa 6/ Nov : 5.80 15.98 13.10 0.30 29.48 0.21 5.19 Dec : 5.68 15.98 13.10 0.30 29.48 0.21 5.07 Pakistan Nov : 1.57 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.32 Dec : 1.50 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.25 SE Asia 7/ Nov : 1.40 0.00 9.05 1.55 8.95 0.33 1.17 Dec : 1.40 0.00 9.05 1.55 8.95 0.33 1.17 Selected other : East. Europe Nov : 4.97 20.92 5.06 8.36 27.33 1.23 2.39 Dec : 4.99 20.98 5.06 8.36 27.40 1.23 2.41 India Nov : 15.70 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 3.00 10.75 Dec : 15.70 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 4.00 9.75 FSU-12 8/ Nov : 19.12 61.88 6.94 17.33 65.63 10.21 12.10 Dec : 19.12 61.88 6.94 17.33 65.63 10.21 12.10 Russia Nov : 5.61 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.61 Dec : 5.61 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.61 Kazakhstan Nov : 6.66 12.00 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.50 6.07 Dec : 6.66 12.00 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.50 6.07 Ukraine Nov : 3.25 4.00 3.00 0.73 9.72 0.10 0.43 Dec : 3.25 4.00 3.00 0.73 9.72 0.10 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-405-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 188.75 892.42 101.38 596.82 904.63 103.51 176.54 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 158.57 216.92 55.15 45.05 Total foreign : 136.05 630.56 98.82 438.24 687.71 48.36 131.49 Major exporters 4/ : 7.41 64.34 5.32 35.78 48.38 19.91 8.78 Argentina : 1.27 18.73 0.00 5.47 7.63 11.32 1.05 Australia : 1.31 12.56 0.05 5.45 6.72 4.94 2.26 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.11 20.69 25.00 2.52 3.52 Major importers 5/ : 29.89 159.56 68.34 161.75 219.28 5.53 32.98 EU-15 : 18.00 106.76 4.24 77.94 103.80 5.04 20.16 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.94 15.52 20.14 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.58 27.17 9.06 19.23 35.27 0.05 4.49 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.22 3.82 13.55 18.96 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.85 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.17 Selected other : China : 81.66 122.27 1.96 94.21 133.08 8.63 64.19 East. Europe : 2.69 51.02 1.53 36.05 46.15 3.88 5.20 FSU-12 6/ : 5.92 62.35 1.00 33.71 51.39 6.63 11.25 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.93 17.03 0.10 9.04 12.96 3.49 2.60 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 176.54 869.90 101.83 591.44 903.44 105.39 143.01 United States : 45.05 245.03 2.56 151.30 215.87 45.87 30.91 Total foreign : 131.49 624.88 99.26 440.14 687.57 59.52 112.10 Major exporters 4/ : 8.78 55.49 4.60 31.31 43.93 17.99 6.94 Argentina : 1.05 19.44 0.03 4.39 6.52 12.75 1.24 Australia : 2.26 6.55 0.01 4.16 5.47 2.30 1.05 Canada : 3.52 19.87 4.24 18.46 22.79 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 32.98 156.66 69.56 161.19 219.76 6.97 32.47 EU-15 : 20.16 106.37 4.35 78.28 104.80 6.61 19.47 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.33 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.41 Mexico : 4.49 25.02 8.78 18.48 34.52 0.05 3.71 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.97 4.11 13.62 18.93 0.31 0.89 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.89 6.74 9.38 0.00 1.06 Selected other : China : 64.19 129.15 1.83 95.03 136.28 15.34 43.56 East. Europe : 5.20 50.35 1.49 38.11 48.07 3.38 5.59 FSU-12 6/ : 11.25 60.82 0.72 35.27 52.99 8.15 11.66 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.45 29.85 3.43 7.20 Ukraine : 2.60 17.10 0.22 9.28 13.27 4.04 2.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-405-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 143.40 882.58 99.39 599.66 918.06 97.75 107.92 December : 143.01 883.78 99.36 601.08 920.86 98.91 105.94 United States : November : 30.91 279.58 2.73 153.30 221.74 53.03 38.45 December : 30.91 279.58 2.73 153.05 221.49 54.56 37.18 Total foreign : November : 112.49 603.00 96.66 446.36 696.32 44.72 69.47 December : 112.10 604.21 96.62 448.03 699.37 44.36 68.76 Major exporters 4/ : November : 6.67 64.22 2.49 33.01 46.06 20.11 7.21 December : 6.94 64.75 2.49 33.36 46.43 20.11 7.65 Argentina Nov : 1.24 17.90 0.01 5.08 7.24 10.72 1.19 Dec : 1.24 16.80 0.01 4.68 6.84 10.22 1.00 Australia Nov : 0.58 11.06 0.00 5.01 6.30 4.45 0.88 Dec : 1.05 12.26 0.00 5.44 6.76 4.95 1.60 Canada Nov : 3.13 25.88 2.06 18.58 23.24 3.92 3.91 Dec : 3.14 26.31 2.06 18.90 23.55 3.92 4.04 Major importers 5/ : November : 33.75 147.04 69.28 161.20 219.89 4.66 25.52 December : 32.47 146.84 69.33 161.68 220.49 4.00 24.15 EU-15 Nov : 21.68 92.95 5.06 75.78 102.20 4.51 12.97 Dec : 19.47 92.75 5.46 76.65 103.19 3.86 10.63 Japan Nov : 2.26 0.25 19.68 15.16 19.98 0.00 2.22 Dec : 2.41 0.25 19.58 15.06 19.89 0.00 2.37 Mexico Nov : 3.98 25.45 10.12 20.06 36.10 0.05 3.41 Dec : 3.71 25.45 9.93 19.81 35.85 0.05 3.19 Southeast Asia Nov : 0.88 15.95 3.86 14.20 19.58 0.10 1.00 Dec : 0.89 15.95 3.86 14.20 19.58 0.10 1.02 South Korea Nov : 1.06 0.38 9.65 7.36 10.03 0.00 1.06 Dec : 1.06 0.38 9.60 7.31 9.98 0.00 1.06 Selected other : China Nov : 43.54 121.30 2.10 95.96 138.60 8.52 19.81 Dec : 43.56 121.30 2.10 95.96 138.60 8.52 19.83 East. Europe Nov : 5.47 41.77 2.06 35.09 44.95 1.66 2.69 Dec : 5.59 41.95 2.06 35.29 45.15 1.66 2.79 FSU-12 6/ Nov : 11.66 53.98 1.04 39.06 56.88 5.07 4.74 Dec : 11.66 54.48 1.00 39.54 57.36 5.36 4.42 Russia Nov : 7.19 28.50 0.50 20.35 31.95 2.40 1.84 Dec : 7.20 29.00 0.50 20.85 32.45 2.40 1.85 Ukraine Nov : 2.61 16.30 0.32 11.70 15.67 2.04 1.52 Dec : 2.61 16.30 0.32 11.70 15.67 2.34 1.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-405-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 152.12 599.35 74.42 433.12 621.72 75.99 129.75 United States : 48.24 241.48 0.26 148.87 201.05 48.38 40.55 Total foreign : 103.88 357.86 74.17 284.25 420.67 27.61 89.20 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.75 0.93 6.60 12.60 11.87 2.33 Argentina : 0.64 14.70 0.00 2.65 4.15 10.80 0.39 South Africa : 0.49 10.05 0.92 3.95 8.45 1.07 1.94 Major importers 5/ : 12.20 81.76 45.39 87.25 125.90 0.55 12.89 EU-15 : 3.74 40.01 2.91 32.80 42.40 0.06 4.19 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.68 20.40 4.08 8.40 23.60 0.05 3.51 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.07 3.82 13.42 18.82 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.62 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.17 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 2.05 1.02 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.66 11.96 0.20 1.06 China : 81.19 114.09 0.04 92.00 123.30 8.61 63.40 East. Europe : 1.50 26.75 1.07 20.09 23.57 3.01 2.74 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.81 0.65 5.70 7.04 0.37 1.46 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 129.75 602.51 75.80 433.17 631.56 79.38 100.70 United States : 40.55 228.80 0.37 143.32 201.69 40.45 27.58 Total foreign : 89.20 373.70 75.43 289.85 429.87 38.93 73.12 Major exporters 4/ : 2.33 24.70 0.17 5.90 11.90 13.20 2.10 Argentina : 0.39 15.50 0.02 1.80 3.30 12.00 0.60 South Africa : 1.94 9.20 0.15 4.10 8.60 1.20 1.49 Major importers 5/ : 12.89 79.56 47.87 88.08 126.96 0.55 12.82 EU-15 : 4.19 40.09 3.20 32.60 42.20 0.20 5.08 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.87 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.51 18.80 5.28 9.50 24.70 0.05 2.84 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.67 4.11 13.34 18.64 0.30 0.89 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.70 8.97 0.00 1.06 Selected other : Brazil : 1.02 45.00 0.35 32.50 36.50 5.50 4.37 Canada : 1.06 8.98 3.95 10.25 12.55 0.31 1.11 China : 63.40 121.30 0.03 93.00 126.50 15.24 42.99 East. Europe : 2.74 27.36 0.81 21.30 24.72 2.45 3.73 FSU-12 6/ : 1.46 8.44 0.23 6.34 7.72 0.90 1.52 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-405-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 100.31 609.79 75.64 433.60 633.66 74.05 76.45 December : 100.70 610.03 75.59 435.61 636.49 74.82 74.24 United States : November : 27.58 261.07 0.25 144.79 207.02 47.63 34.26 December : 27.58 261.07 0.25 144.79 207.02 48.90 32.99 Total foreign : November : 72.73 348.72 75.39 288.81 426.64 26.42 42.19 December : 73.12 348.96 75.33 290.82 429.47 25.92 41.25 Major exporters 4/ : November : 2.30 22.90 0.26 6.60 12.70 11.00 1.76 December : 2.10 22.40 0.26 6.60 12.70 10.50 1.56 Argentina Nov : 0.60 14.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 10.00 0.61 Dec : 0.60 13.50 0.01 2.50 4.00 9.50 0.61 South Africa Nov : 1.69 8.90 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.14 Dec : 1.49 8.90 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 0.94 Major importers 5/ : November : 12.82 71.19 50.16 83.88 122.87 0.25 11.06 December : 12.82 71.19 50.16 84.88 123.87 0.25 10.05 EU-15 Nov : 4.88 30.50 4.00 26.50 36.10 0.10 3.18 Dec : 5.08 30.50 4.00 27.60 37.20 0.10 2.28 Japan Nov : 1.39 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.40 Dec : 1.46 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.46 Mexico Nov : 3.06 19.00 6.50 10.50 25.70 0.05 2.81 Dec : 2.84 19.00 6.50 10.50 25.70 0.05 2.59 Southeast Asia Nov : 0.88 15.67 3.86 13.92 19.30 0.10 1.00 Dec : 0.89 15.67 3.86 13.92 19.30 0.10 1.02 South Korea Nov : 1.06 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.06 Dec : 1.06 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.06 Selected other : Brazil Nov : 3.82 37.50 0.30 33.00 37.00 3.00 1.62 Dec : 4.37 37.50 0.30 33.00 37.00 3.00 2.17 Canada Nov : 1.10 9.20 2.00 8.60 11.10 0.30 0.90 Dec : 1.11 9.60 2.00 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.91 China Nov : 42.97 114.00 0.10 94.00 129.10 8.50 19.47 Dec : 42.99 114.00 0.10 94.00 129.10 8.50 19.49 East. Europe Nov : 3.61 21.86 0.99 20.36 23.80 1.18 1.48 Dec : 3.73 21.70 0.99 20.32 23.75 1.18 1.49 FSU-12 6/ Nov : 1.52 10.58 0.40 8.23 9.70 1.52 1.27 Dec : 1.52 11.08 0.40 8.73 10.20 1.52 1.27 Russia Nov : 0.12 1.50 0.30 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.12 Dec : 0.12 2.00 0.30 1.90 2.30 0.00 0.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-405-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 3/ : 149.46 398.60 25.75 411.14 27.03 136.92 United States : 0.89 6.71 0.42 3.85 2.95 1.22 Total foreign : 148.57 391.89 25.33 407.29 24.07 135.71 Major exporters 4/ : 30.39 135.50 0.06 117.05 18.42 30.48 India : 25.05 93.08 0.00 87.35 6.30 24.48 Pakistan : 0.48 3.88 0.00 2.64 1.63 0.10 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.24 2.40 Vietnam : 2.96 21.04 0.04 17.30 3.24 3.49 Major importers 5/ : 12.85 54.36 12.36 66.86 0.43 12.28 Brazil : 1.17 7.12 0.63 8.30 0.03 0.59 EU-15 : 0.89 1.62 0.92 2.22 0.34 0.88 Indonesia : 4.61 33.09 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.84 Nigeria : 1.02 2.10 1.91 4.35 0.00 0.68 Philippines : 2.80 8.45 1.20 9.04 0.00 3.41 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 2.13 1.40 3.20 5.18 0.06 1.50 Selected other : Burma : 1.38 10.44 0.00 9.90 1.00 0.92 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.07 0.09 0.38 0.44 0.00 0.10 China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Egypt : 0.89 3.58 0.03 3.15 0.47 0.86 Japan : 1.66 8.24 0.66 8.92 0.05 1.59 Mexico : 0.16 0.19 0.54 0.68 0.00 0.20 South Korea : 1.28 5.52 0.12 5.10 0.13 1.68 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 3/ : 136.92 380.09 25.91 410.16 27.31 106.85 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.54 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 135.71 373.55 25.44 406.63 23.46 106.02 Major exporters 4/ : 30.48 118.38 0.04 114.05 17.35 17.50 India : 24.48 75.70 0.00 83.68 4.50 12.00 Pakistan : 0.10 4.23 0.00 2.64 1.60 0.08 Thailand : 2.40 17.12 0.00 9.92 7.25 2.35 Vietnam : 3.49 21.33 0.04 17.80 4.00 3.06 Major importers 5/ : 12.28 54.93 12.00 67.31 0.42 11.49 Brazil : 0.59 6.90 1.20 8.10 0.03 0.56 EU-15 : 0.88 1.64 0.93 2.22 0.33 0.89 Indonesia : 4.84 33.20 3.00 36.76 0.00 4.27 Nigeria : 0.68 2.20 1.82 4.09 0.00 0.61 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 1.50 2.15 2.54 5.08 0.06 1.05 Selected other : Burma : 0.92 10.44 0.00 10.10 0.40 0.86 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China : 82.17 122.18 0.23 134.80 2.50 67.27 Egypt : 0.86 3.70 0.05 3.28 0.65 0.69 Japan : 1.59 8.09 0.70 8.79 0.20 1.39 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.48 0.70 0.00 0.11 South Korea : 1.68 4.93 0.13 5.07 0.57 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-405-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 105.68 390.64 24.68 413.32 25.52 83.00 December : 106.85 391.30 24.15 413.93 25.75 84.22 United States : November : 0.83 6.20 0.51 3.88 2.97 0.69 December : 0.83 6.20 0.51 3.88 2.97 0.69 Total foreign : November : 104.85 384.44 24.17 409.44 22.55 82.32 December : 106.02 385.10 23.64 410.05 22.78 83.53 Major exporters 4/ : November : 15.55 132.30 0.04 115.85 16.40 15.64 December : 17.50 132.30 0.04 116.10 16.65 17.09 India Nov : 11.95 89.00 0.00 85.25 2.75 12.95 Dec : 12.00 89.00 0.00 85.00 3.00 13.00 Pakistan Nov : 0.08 4.50 0.00 2.70 1.65 0.23 Dec : 0.08 4.50 0.00 2.70 1.65 0.23 Thailand Nov : 2.35 17.80 0.00 10.20 8.00 1.95 Dec : 2.35 17.80 0.00 10.20 8.00 1.95 Vietnam Nov : 1.16 21.00 0.04 17.70 4.00 0.50 Dec : 3.06 21.00 0.04 18.20 4.00 1.90 Major importers 5/ : November : 12.42 55.86 11.32 68.05 0.56 10.99 December : 11.49 56.42 10.85 67.65 0.44 10.67 Brazil Nov : 0.91 7.50 0.60 8.30 0.05 0.66 Dec : 0.56 7.50 0.50 8.30 0.05 0.21 EU-15 Nov : 0.76 1.62 0.90 2.23 0.45 0.61 Dec : 0.89 1.69 0.93 2.23 0.33 0.95 Indonesia Nov : 4.27 33.54 3.00 36.97 0.00 3.84 Dec : 4.27 33.54 3.00 36.97 0.00 3.84 Nigeria Nov : 1.65 2.30 1.25 4.00 0.00 1.20 Dec : 0.61 2.30 1.25 3.56 0.00 0.60 Philippines Nov : 3.81 8.84 0.80 9.70 0.00 3.75 Dec : 3.81 8.84 0.80 9.70 0.00 3.75 Sel. Mideast 6/Nov : 0.78 1.60 3.70 5.32 0.06 0.70 Dec : 1.05 2.27 3.20 5.32 0.06 1.13 Selected other : Burma Nov : 0.81 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.55 Dec : 0.86 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.60 C. Am & Car. 7/Nov : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 Dec : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China Nov : 67.30 118.00 0.30 135.00 2.50 48.10 Dec : 67.27 118.00 0.25 135.00 2.50 48.02 Egypt Nov : 0.69 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.59 Dec : 0.69 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.59 Japan Nov : 1.39 7.10 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.34 Dec : 1.39 7.08 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.32 Mexico Nov : 0.11 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.12 Dec : 0.11 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.12 South Korea Nov : 1.07 4.50 0.16 5.02 0.10 0.62 Dec : 1.10 4.45 0.16 5.00 0.10 0.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-405-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World : 42.64 98.52 29.56 94.58 29.09 0.10 46.94 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.70 11.00 0.18 7.45 Total foreign : 36.64 78.22 29.53 86.88 18.09 -0.08 39.50 Major exporters 4/ : 8.78 27.63 1.40 12.65 14.14 -0.09 11.12 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.02 4.15 0.27 0.91 3.78 -0.14 2.90 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Major importers : 26.09 47.45 23.32 67.80 2.64 0.01 26.41 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.80 0.67 -0.15 2.42 India : 3.77 12.30 1.95 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.69 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 2.07 2.20 0.09 0.03 0.72 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.25 0.34 0.00 12.61 Europe : 1.58 2.62 4.35 5.35 1.30 0.06 1.84 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.77 0.21 9.59 8.98 0.05 0.08 2.46 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 Thailand : 0.38 0.10 2.06 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World : 46.94 88.03 30.68 97.93 30.61 0.25 36.87 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.39 Total foreign : 39.50 70.83 30.62 90.66 18.71 0.08 31.48 Major exporters 4/ : 11.12 23.96 1.44 13.91 14.07 0.01 8.53 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.20 0.23 0.03 2.46 Central Asia 5/ : 1.94 6.74 3/ 1.82 5.24 0.00 1.63 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 3.98 3/ 0.21 3.76 0.05 1.44 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.73 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.89 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.23 Major importers : 26.41 43.81 24.07 70.17 3.23 0.06 20.83 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.45 0.49 -0.10 3.03 India : 4.69 10.60 1.40 13.30 0.05 0.00 3.34 Mexico : 0.72 0.19 2.30 2.10 0.05 0.03 1.04 China : 12.61 22.60 3.13 29.50 0.75 0.00 8.08 Europe : 1.84 2.19 3.87 4.90 1.53 0.06 1.41 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.27 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 8/ : 2.46 0.16 8.89 8.97 0.06 0.08 2.42 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.38 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.95 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-405-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World : November : 36.77 92.14 32.74 97.69 32.26 0.03 31.66 December : 36.87 92.17 32.46 97.17 32.11 0.03 32.19 United States : November : 5.39 18.22 0.05 6.20 13.20 0.00 4.25 December : 5.39 18.22 0.05 6.20 13.20 0.00 4.25 Total foreign : November : 31.38 73.93 32.69 91.49 19.06 0.03 27.41 December : 31.48 73.96 32.41 90.97 18.91 0.03 27.94 Major exporters 4/ : November : 8.48 24.40 2.01 14.16 13.62 -0.04 7.14 December : 8.53 24.40 2.03 14.16 13.37 -0.04 7.46 Pakistan Nov : 2.46 7.90 1.30 9.40 0.05 0.03 2.18 Dec : 2.46 7.90 1.30 9.40 0.05 0.03 2.18 Central Asia 5/Nov : 1.58 6.55 0.01 1.88 4.94 0.00 1.32 Dec : 1.63 6.65 0.01 1.90 4.91 0.00 1.47 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Nov : 1.44 4.57 3/ 0.20 4.52 0.00 1.28 Dec : 1.44 4.59 3/ 0.20 4.47 0.00 1.36 S. Hemis 7/ Nov : 1.89 2.90 0.25 1.12 2.54 -0.08 1.46 Dec : 1.89 2.85 0.28 1.10 2.49 -0.08 1.51 Australia Nov : 1.23 1.20 3/ 0.10 1.70 -0.10 0.73 Dec : 1.23 1.20 3/ 0.08 1.70 -0.10 0.76 Major importers Nov : 20.81 46.30 25.54 70.55 3.71 0.06 18.33 Dec : 20.83 46.33 25.34 70.15 3.81 0.06 18.48 Brazil Nov : 3.03 5.00 0.20 3.55 1.65 -0.10 3.13 Dec : 3.03 5.00 0.20 3.60 1.65 -0.10 3.08 India Nov : 3.34 12.50 1.15 13.40 0.10 0.00 3.49 Dec : 3.34 12.70 1.00 13.30 0.30 0.00 3.44 Mexico Nov : 1.04 0.30 1.40 2.00 0.18 0.03 0.54 Dec : 1.04 0.30 1.55 2.00 0.18 0.03 0.69 China Nov : 8.08 22.00 7.00 30.20 0.10 0.00 6.78 Dec : 8.08 22.00 7.00 30.20 0.10 0.00 6.78 Europe Nov : 1.43 2.13 3.89 4.80 1.43 0.06 1.17 Dec : 1.41 2.06 3.77 4.68 1.32 0.06 1.18 Russia Nov : 0.22 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.22 Dec : 0.22 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Nov : 1.24 4.20 1.85 6.10 0.20 0.00 0.99 Dec : 1.29 4.10 1.85 6.00 0.20 0.00 1.04 Sel. Asia 8/ Nov : 2.42 0.17 8.45 8.90 0.06 0.08 2.00 Dec : 2.42 0.17 8.37 8.77 0.06 0.08 2.05 Indonesia Nov : 0.38 0.04 2.20 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.34 Dec : 0.38 0.04 2.20 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.34 Thailand Nov : 0.60 0.07 1.90 2.05 0.01 0.03 0.48 Dec : 0.60 0.07 1.90 2.05 0.01 0.03 0.48 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-405-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 30.71 184.87 54.21 158.10 184.02 53.62 32.14 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.87 28.95 5.66 Total foreign : 23.96 106.20 54.14 111.84 133.15 24.67 26.48 Major exporters 3/ : 16.41 77.05 1.40 46.60 50.13 23.39 21.33 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.01 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.82 18.12 42.29 48.65 62.54 0.39 4.30 China : 4.91 15.41 10.39 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 EU-15 : 0.85 1.23 18.30 17.34 19.23 0.06 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.89 5.21 0.00 0.67 Mexico : 0.18 0.07 4.51 4.61 4.66 0.00 0.10 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 32.14 196.66 64.10 166.15 191.57 63.17 38.15 United States : 5.66 74.83 0.13 43.97 47.56 28.44 4.61 Total foreign : 26.48 121.83 63.97 122.19 144.01 34.73 33.54 Major exporters 3/ : 21.33 92.20 1.72 52.16 56.17 33.09 25.99 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 23.51 24.84 8.71 12.51 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.32 27.45 30.04 21.46 13.38 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.71 51.79 54.05 67.88 0.35 6.57 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.99 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-15 : 1.08 0.81 17.05 16.08 17.81 0.06 1.06 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 37.57 201.48 67.50 175.73 202.63 67.17 36.75 December : 38.15 199.46 66.98 174.87 201.69 66.84 36.07 United States : November : 4.61 66.73 0.22 40.42 43.95 24.22 3.39 December : 4.61 66.73 0.22 40.42 43.95 24.22 3.39 Total foreign : November : 32.96 134.75 67.28 135.31 158.68 42.94 33.36 December : 33.54 132.73 66.76 134.46 157.74 42.61 32.67 Major exporters 3/ : November : 25.38 102.50 1.90 58.71 63.30 40.91 25.57 December : 25.99 101.00 1.80 58.41 62.99 40.81 25.00 Argentina Nov : 11.90 38.00 0.40 25.80 27.32 12.00 10.98 Dec : 12.51 36.50 0.30 25.50 27.01 11.50 10.80 Brazil Nov : 13.38 60.00 1.50 31.61 34.59 25.80 14.49 Dec : 13.38 60.00 1.50 31.61 34.59 26.20 14.09 Major importers 4/ : November : 6.61 18.22 54.74 58.14 72.66 0.38 6.52 December : 6.57 18.17 54.46 58.02 72.42 0.29 6.49 China Nov : 4.47 16.20 22.00 29.25 37.81 0.29 4.57 Dec : 4.47 16.20 22.00 29.25 37.90 0.20 4.57 EU-15 Nov : 1.06 0.70 18.60 17.64 19.45 0.06 0.85 Dec : 1.06 0.65 18.60 17.60 19.40 0.06 0.85 Japan Nov : 0.71 0.28 5.15 4.01 5.43 0.00 0.71 Dec : 0.71 0.28 5.15 4.05 5.43 0.00 0.71 Mexico Nov : 0.05 0.09 4.40 4.45 4.49 0.00 0.05 Dec : 0.05 0.09 4.40 4.45 4.49 0.00 0.05 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-405-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 3.79 125.30 43.99 126.63 42.36 4.10 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.00 6.81 0.22 Total foreign : 3.45 88.75 43.86 96.63 35.55 3.88 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.67 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.99 Argentina : 0.10 16.50 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.14 32.37 27.79 56.53 3.34 1.42 EU-15 : 0.62 13.91 19.54 30.92 2.27 0.87 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.10 131.44 45.53 133.37 43.96 3.73 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.38 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.88 96.77 45.38 103.99 38.51 3.53 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 42.98 0.33 9.92 33.49 0.89 Argentina : 0.30 18.57 0.00 0.23 18.44 0.20 Brazil : 0.65 21.68 0.33 8.25 13.75 0.65 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.44 1.30 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.42 36.67 27.89 61.82 3.04 1.13 EU-15 : 0.87 12.96 19.75 30.68 2.26 0.63 China : 0.00 21.37 0.03 20.64 0.76 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 3.87 139.34 48.44 139.19 48.41 4.05 December : 3.73 138.64 48.50 138.83 48.20 3.84 United States : November : 0.20 32.06 0.31 28.31 4.08 0.18 December : 0.20 32.06 0.31 28.31 4.08 0.18 Total foreign : November : 3.67 107.28 48.14 110.88 44.33 3.87 December : 3.53 106.58 48.20 110.53 44.11 3.66 Major exporters 3/ : November : 1.02 49.54 0.33 10.63 39.22 1.04 December : 0.89 49.31 0.33 10.60 39.06 0.87 Argentina Nov : 0.33 20.38 0.00 0.27 20.12 0.33 Dec : 0.20 20.15 0.00 0.24 19.96 0.15 Brazil Nov : 0.65 24.97 0.33 8.78 16.50 0.67 Dec : 0.65 24.97 0.33 8.78 16.50 0.67 India Nov : 0.04 4.19 0.00 1.58 2.60 0.05 Dec : 0.04 4.19 0.00 1.58 2.60 0.05 Major importers 4/ : November : 1.13 39.71 29.62 66.22 3.00 1.24 December : 1.13 39.74 29.62 66.25 3.00 1.24 EU-15 Nov : 0.63 14.15 20.46 32.38 2.18 0.68 Dec : 0.63 14.15 20.46 32.38 2.18 0.68 China Nov : 0.00 23.28 0.20 22.68 0.80 0.00 Dec : 0.00 23.28 0.20 22.68 0.80 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-405-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 2.72 28.87 8.26 28.69 8.59 2.57 United States : 1.26 8.57 0.02 7.64 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.46 20.29 8.24 21.05 7.44 1.50 Major exporters 3/ : 0.47 11.70 0.17 5.24 6.60 0.50 Argentina : 0.10 3.88 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.13 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.18 3.11 0.02 2.02 1.10 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.46 4.48 2.00 6.48 0.06 0.41 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 India : 0.18 0.86 1.55 2.39 0.00 0.19 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.57 30.54 9.14 30.93 9.50 1.81 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.50 22.17 9.12 23.18 8.48 1.14 Major exporters 3/ : 0.50 12.53 0.11 5.19 7.63 0.33 Argentina : 0.13 4.40 0.00 0.12 4.35 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.25 0.07 3.15 2.25 0.10 EU-15 : 0.20 2.88 0.04 1.92 1.03 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.40 3.09 8.45 0.06 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.35 0.05 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.28 1.97 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 1.84 32.12 9.86 32.30 9.72 1.80 December : 1.81 31.98 9.60 32.04 9.60 1.76 United States : November : 0.67 7.59 0.04 7.39 0.39 0.52 December : 0.68 7.56 0.04 7.37 0.39 0.52 Total foreign : November : 1.16 24.53 9.82 24.91 9.33 1.28 December : 1.14 24.43 9.56 24.67 9.22 1.24 Major exporters 3/ : November : 0.33 14.01 0.14 5.67 8.37 0.43 December : 0.33 13.94 0.14 5.67 8.31 0.43 Argentina Nov : 0.05 4.80 0.00 0.13 4.65 0.08 Dec : 0.05 4.74 0.00 0.13 4.59 0.08 Brazil Nov : 0.10 6.04 0.10 3.33 2.75 0.17 Dec : 0.10 6.04 0.10 3.33 2.75 0.17 EU-15 Nov : 0.18 3.17 0.04 2.22 0.98 0.19 Dec : 0.18 3.16 0.04 2.22 0.97 0.19 Major importers 4/ : November : 0.38 6.12 3.31 9.31 0.09 0.42 December : 0.38 6.12 3.11 9.11 0.09 0.42 China Nov : 0.25 5.12 1.75 6.79 0.08 0.25 Dec : 0.25 5.12 1.75 6.79 0.08 0.25 India Nov : 0.13 0.97 1.45 2.38 0.01 0.17 Dec : 0.13 0.97 1.25 2.18 0.01 0.17 Pakistan Nov : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 Dec : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-405-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2002 : IV : 6783 5255 12148 7936 1482 9552 21700 1835 41.6 Annual : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7221 169.8 : 2003 : I : 6287 4889 11275 7770 1379 9275 20550 1776 42.9 II : 6907 4734 11738 8238 1438 9808 21546 1788 43.9 III : 7078 4795 11965 8454 1407 9989 21954 1810 41.5 IV*: 6025 5450 11575 8175 1475 9770 21345 1835 41.6 Annual : Nov Proj : 26772 19719 46877 32634 5697 38842 85719 7203 170.1 Dec Proj : 26297 19868 46553 32638 5699 38843 85396 7209 169.9 : 2004 : I*: 6150 4925 11174 8040 1370 9535 20709 1790 43.4 II*: 6550 4775 11419 8515 1430 10080 21499 1795 44.2 III*: 6700 4825 11617 8665 1430 10225 21842 1830 41.9 Annual : Nov Proj : 25400 19725 45506 33450 5790 39770 85276 7260 171.7 Dec Proj : 25400 19750 45531 33610 5710 39830 85361 7265 171.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2002 : IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.5 11.97 Annual : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.11 : 2003 : I : 77.82 35.38 60.3 61.1 77.2 11.37 II : 78.49 42.64 59.6 60.6 73.9 11.07 III : 83.07 42.90 63.4 59.1 89.9 13.20 IV*: 102-102 37-38 63-64 67-68 112-113 14.65-14.85 Annual : Nov Proj : 85.10 38.98 61.3 61.7 85.3 12.45-12.55 Dec Proj : 85.47 39.61 61.7 62.1 88.4 12.55-12.65 : 2004 : I*: 93-97 39-41 60-64 59-63 93-97 12.25-12.75 II*: 84-92 39-43 61-67 60-64 82-88 10.95-11.75 III*: 79-85 40-44 63-69 61-67 86-94 11.45-12.45 Annual : Nov Proj : 82-88 38-42 59-64 61-66 87-93 11.70-12.60 Dec Proj : 84-91 39-42 61-66 61-66 88-95 11.85-12.65 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-405-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2002 : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.6 2003 Proj. Nov : 691 26877 2851 30419 2628 500 27291 65.5 Dec : 691 26402 2860 29953 2584 500 26869 64.5 2004 Proj. Nov : 500 25505 3430 29435 2660 550 26225 62.3 Dec : 500 25505 3430 29435 2620 550 26265 62.4 : PORK : 2002 : 536 19685 1070 21291 1611 533 19147 51.5 2003 Proj. Nov : 533 19741 1250 21524 1681 540 19303 51.4 Dec : 533 19890 1228 21651 1687 540 19424 51.7 2004 Proj. Nov : 540 19747 1375 21662 1695 540 19427 51.2 Dec : 540 19772 1375 21687 1695 540 19452 51.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2002 : 1160 47305 4450 52915 4065 1238 47612 120.9 2003 Proj. Nov : 1238 47018 4265 52521 4315 1054 47152 118.5 Dec : 1238 46694 4247 52179 4277 1054 46848 117.8 2004 Proj. Nov : 1054 45647 4976 51677 4360 1104 46213 115.1 Dec : 1054 45672 4968 51694 4320 1104 46270 115.3 : BROILERS : 2002 : 712 31895 12 32619 4807 763 27049 80.5 2003 Proj. Nov : 763 32285 13 33060 4916 625 27520 81.1 Dec : 763 32288 12 33063 4787 625 27651 81.4 2004 Proj. Nov : 625 33092 12 33729 5100 650 27979 81.6 Dec : 625 33250 12 33887 5030 650 28207 82.2 : TURKEYS : 2002 : 241 5638 1 5879 439 333 5108 17.7 2003 Proj. Nov : 333 5622 1 5956 452 325 5179 17.8 Dec : 333 5625 1 5959 476 325 5157 17.7 2004 Proj. Nov : 325 5714 1 6040 465 325 5249 17.8 Dec : 325 5635 1 5961 490 325 5145 17.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2002 : 960 38079 16 39056 5380 1101 32575 99.6 2003 Proj. Nov : 1101 38418 17 39536 5469 956 33111 100.2 Dec : 1101 38418 16 39536 5356 956 33224 100.6 2004 Proj. Nov : 956 39336 17 40309 5675 981 33652 100.8 Dec : 956 39395 17 40368 5620 981 33766 101.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2002 : 2120 85384 4466 91971 9445 2339 80187 220.5 2003 Proj. Nov : 2339 85436 4282 92057 9784 2010 80263 218.8 Dec : 2339 85112 4263 91715 9633 2010 80072 218.4 2004 Proj. Nov : 2010 84983 4993 91986 10035 2085 79865 216.0 Dec : 2010 85067 4985 92062 9940 2085 80036 216.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-405-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2003 Projected : 2004 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2001 : 2002 : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 12.0 12.0 Production : 7155.0 7221.0 7203.0 7209.0 7260.0 7265.0 Imports : 8.9 15.0 13.3 13.1 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7175.2 7246.4 7226.6 7232.4 7284.0 7289.0 : Use : Exports : 190.0 174.0 154.5 154.0 173.0 160.0 Hatching use : 964.2 961.3 957.0 957.0 980.0 980.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 10.3 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 6010.6 6100.8 6103.1 6109.4 6119.0 6137.0 Per capita (number) : 252.6 253.6 251.1 251.4 249.2 250.0 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Proj 1/: 2003/04 Proj 1/ Commodity :2000/01:2001/02:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.2 11.0 11.0 Production : 165.2 169.2 169.9 169.9 171.4 171.0 Farm use : 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 164.0 168.0 168.8 168.8 170.4 170.0 Imports 2/ : 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.3 182.0 185.0 185.0 186.3 185.9 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 169.2 170.5 172.7 172.7 176.7 176.7 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 9.1 8.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.4 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 6.3 9.6 9.2 9.2 6.1 5.9 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 12.29 11.03 10.63 10.63 10.95- 11.10- : 11.65 11.70 : Class IV : 13.88 11.22 10.05 10.05 9.70- 9.80- : 10.60 10.60 : All milk 5/ : 14.51 12.74 11.90 11.90 12.15- 12.35- : 12.85 12.95 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 0 0 29 29 15 10 Cheese : 17 9 47 47 10 10 Nonfat dry milk : 525 817 751 751 515 500 Dry whole milk : 3 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-405-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 22-year record of the differences between the December projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the December projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.8 million tons (0.7%) ranging from -10.2 to 6.1 million tons. The December projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 8 times. Reliability of December Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.7 3.8 -10.2 6.1 14 8 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 11 9 Foreign : 0.8 3.8 -10.3 6.3 14 8 Exports : World : 3.1 3.6 -12.6 5.7 16 6 U.S. : 5.1 1.7 -3.9 3.4 9 13 Foreign : 4.8 3.9 -11.2 5.9 18 4 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.6 -13.0 11.0 13 9 U.S. : 5.5 1.7 -2.4 3.6 8 14 Foreign : 1.1 5.5 -16.1 8.7 14 8 Ending stocks : World : 4.8 5.9 -15.0 6.1 14 8 U.S. : 9.2 2.0 -7.0 2.1 14 8 Foreign : 4.7 4.7 -12.5 9.7 13 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.5 -19.8 6.9 13 9 U.S. : 1.0 2.2 -7.5 5.8 12 10 Foreign : 1.2 7.3 -16.3 7.6 12 10 Exports : World : 4.7 4.9 -10.8 12.4 15 7 U.S. : 11.6 6.0 -11.6 12.4 10 12 Foreign : 9.9 5.2 -14.9 7.2 12 9 Domestic use : World : 1.1 9.0 -18.4 22.8 12 10 U.S. : 3.0 5.2 -17.9 16.5 12 10 Foreign : 1.2 7.5 -10.5 22.7 13 9 Ending stocks : World : 7.9 11.0 -30.3 17.5 16 6 U.S. : 16.1 8.2 -23.9 21.2 12 10 Foreign : 10.0 7.7 -19.5 8.3 16 6 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.7 5.8 -16.2 4.7 17 5 U.S. : 2.8 0.2 -0.3 0.5 10 10 Foreign : 1.7 5.9 -16.2 4.6 18 4 Exports : World : 7.9 1.5 -6.1 0.9 18 4 U.S. : 5.7 0.2 -0.6 0.3 12 8 Foreign : 9.0 1.4 -6.0 0.9 16 6 Domestic use : World : 1.3 4.2 -15.9 1.5 18 4 U.S. : 5.8 0.2 -0.4 0.4 12 10 Foreign : 1.3 4.2 -16.1 1.7 18 4 Ending stocks : World : 9.0 3.8 -13.4 4.8 16 6 U.S. : 14.7 0.2 -0.3 0.8 10 12 Foreign : 9.5 3.9 -13.5 4.6 16 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-405-33 Reliability of December Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.4 3.0 -7.9 3.8 14 8 U.S. : 1.8 1.0 -2.7 2.1 7 15 Foreign : 4.2 2.8 -7.5 2.7 13 9 Exports : World : 4.7 1.8 -8.1 3.7 14 8 U.S. : 7.4 1.6 -3.9 4.8 13 9 Foreign : 16.1 1.9 -7.4 5.4 12 10 Domestic use : World : 2.5 3.0 -5.8 3.0 15 7 U.S. : 2.8 1.1 -3.6 2.1 15 7 Foreign : 3.1 2.5 -5.4 3.4 15 7 Ending stocks : World : 12.3 2.5 -8.2 5.2 13 9 U.S. : 26.2 1.9 -2.8 4.9 5 17 Foreign : 16.6 2.5 -8.4 2.7 14 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.2 1.8 -6.3 4.4 11 10 U.S. : 1.4 0.2 -0.5 0.4 10 11 Foreign : 2.7 1.9 -6.7 4.3 10 11 Exports : World : 4.0 1.0 -2.7 1.2 13 9 U.S. : 10.7 0.7 -1.2 1.1 13 9 Foreign : 5.0 0.9 -3.3 1.6 11 10 Mill use : World : 1.9 1.6 -6.0 1.6 11 11 U.S. : 4.0 0.3 -0.9 1.0 13 8 Foreign : 2.0 1.5 -5.5 2.1 12 10 Ending stocks : World : 9.8 3.4 -8.1 9.4 10 12 U.S. : 20.3 0.9 -2.1 2.1 6 16 Foreign : 9.4 2.9 -8.6 8.9 13 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 22 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-405-34 Reliability of United States December Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.0 77 -250 159 12 9 Exports : 11.9 211 -450 408 10 12 Domestic use : 3.3 198 -574 535 15 7 Ending stocks : 18.7 314 -986 907 12 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.4 16 -53 52 10 12 Exports : 13.6 32 -90 97 15 6 Domestic use : 9.9 43 -114 127 8 14 Ending stocks : 32.3 35 -104 82 11 11 : BARLEY : Production : 1.2 5 -12 24 8 10 Exports : 18.3 12 -37 30 9 11 Domestic use : 5.2 20 -30 70 9 12 Ending stocks : 10.5 16 -39 28 14 7 : OATS : Production : 0.9 3 -18 16 7 7 Exports : 48.2 1 -4 7 6 6 Domestic use : 3.4 14 -39 36 12 10 Ending stocks : 12.9 16 -46 52 13 9 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.7 846 -2578 1265 13 9 Exports : 8.9 595 -1900 1300 11 11 Domestic use : 2.5 587 -1206 1166 14 8 Ending stocks : 29.1 71 -214 188 9 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.5 363 -1418 745 14 8 Exports : 20.0 302 -900 964 9 11 Domestic use : 2.4 308 -985 500 14 8 Ending stocks : 15.7 233 -623 708 12 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.2 843 -441 2311 15 5 Pork : 2.8 458 -1240 1592 11 9 Broilers : 1.6 351 -1337 516 13 7 Turkeys : 2.1 86 -294 181 14 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 81 -127 163 14 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.4 2.0 -6.0 5.6 9 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 22 for crops and 20 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2002 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 2001/02 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------- End of file --------