ISSN: 1554-9089 WASDE-422 May 12, 2005 Note: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2005/06 season. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2006 projections of U.S. livestock and dairy products. Projections reflect economic analysis, normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. Starting with this issue, milk and dairy product supply, use, and prices are reported on a calendar-year basis and use is reported on a skim-solids basis as well as on a fat basis (page 31). Price forecasts now include several major dairy products as well as milk (page 32). WHEAT: The 2005/06 U.S. wheat outlook is for a modest increase in production, a decrease in exports, and a rise in stocks. Total production is up 1 percent from 2004/05 to 2,185 million bushels. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is up 6 percent because of reduced abandonment and higher yields. Spring and durum production is projected to decline based on trend yields and the most recent 10-year average of harvested-to-planted ratios. Total wheat supplies are up only 2 percent, reflecting smaller beginning stocks. Total wheat use is projected to decrease by 5 percent in 2005/06 because of smaller exports and feed and residual use. Food use is unchanged. Projected exports of 950 million bushels are down 100 million because of larger exportable supplies in the EU-25, Ukraine, and Russia. U.S. ending stocks are up 137 million bushels, and the largest since 2001/02. The 2005/06 price range is $2.55 to $3.05 per bushel, compared with an estimated $3.39 for 2004/05. The 2005/06 global wheat outlook includes larger carry-in stocks, offsetting smaller crops, resulting in larger supplies. Global wheat production declines to 615.2 million tons, down 9.7 million. Most of the decrease is due to a drop in EU-25 production with smaller declines projected for Canada, Ukraine, Argentina, and Russia. Canada's crop is down but quality is expected to improve. Larger crops are projected for the United States, China, India, Kazakhstan, and Australia. Despite the drop in global production, stocks are expected to decline just 2.1 million tons. World wheat imports are projected down just over 1 million tons, partly due to lower imports by China and Pakistan. However, Turkey and Morocco's imports rise. Smaller coarse grain crops are projected to increase wheat feeding in the EU- 25, Russia, and Ukraine. Global wheat stocks decline slightly with the largest reduction in China. The largest increase in stocks is projected for the United States. COARSE GRAINS: The U.S. outlook for 2005/06 includes decreased feed-grain production but larger supplies, lower domestic use but higher exports, increased ending stocks, and lower prices. The 2005/06 corn crop is projected at 10,985 million bushels, 7 percent below last year's record. The projection is based on Prospective Plantings, the harvested-to- planted relationship for 1999-2004 (omitting 2002), and trend yields adjusted up for the rapid pace of 2005 planting. The smaller corn crop is offset by larger carry-in stocks, leaving total corn supplies up. Total 2005/06 corn use expands as higher exports offset a decline in domestic use, which is down 40 million bushels largely due to reduced feed and residual use. Feed and residual use declines due to increased use of non-grain feed ingredients and lower residual disappearance because of a return to near-to- trend yields. Food, seed, and industrial use is up due to increased use of corn to produce ethanol. U.S. corn exports are up 150 million bushels because of less competition. With supplies exceeding use, ending stocks of corn are 2,540 million bushels, up 325 million, and the largest since 1987/88. The projected price range for corn is $1.55 to $1.95 for 2005/06, compared with $2.00 to $2.10 for 2004/05. Stocks of grain sorghum and oats are little changed but barley stocks are down 15 million bushels. The global outlook for 2005/06 is for decreased production, lower use, and a moderate drop in stocks. Smaller coarse grain crops are expected in the United States, the EU-25, and several other countries. Global coarse grain use and imports are down fractionally. U.S. corn exports are expected to expand because of reduced competition from China, Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine. China's corn stocks are projected to continue to decline in 2005/06 with global coarse grain stocks down 12 million tons. However, coarse grain stocks in the United States are up 8 million tons. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2005/06 is projected at 225.0 million cwt, 5.8 million cwt below record 2004/05. Planted area is estimated at 3.358 million acres, up 11,000 acres, while harvested area is projected at 3.333 million acres, up 8,000 acres. Rice yield is projected at 6,751 pounds per acre, down 191 pounds per acre or nearly 3 percent from the 2004/05 record. The lower yield is based on trend yields for 1990 through 2004. Additionally, the lower yield reflects that a smaller share of the 2005/06 crop will be comprised of higher- yielding, medium-grain rice produced in California. Total supplies are projected at a record 278.9 million cwt, 4 percent above 2004/05. Domestic and residual use for 2005/06 is projected at a record 126.2 million cwt, 3 million cwt above 2004/05. Exports are projected at 120 million cwt, 14 million cwt above the revised 2004/05 projection, and the second largest export level on record. Ending stocks of 32.7 million cwt would be 6.7 million cwt below the revised 2004/05 level, including long-grain ending stocks of 23.5 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain stocks of 8.1 million cwt. U.S. rice prices are expected to continue to be supported by tight global supplies and a firmness in international prices. The projected seasonal- average price range for 2005/06 is $7.20 to $7.50 per cwt compared to a revised $7.20 to $7.40 per cwt for 2004/05. Global 2005/06 rice production is projected at a record 410.3 million tons, up about 8 million from 2004/05. World consumption is projected at a record 416.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. Global exports are expected to be down slightly from 2004/05, and down 2.6 million tons from 2003/04. Ending stocks are expected to decline for the sixth consecutive year, to 68.5 million tons, 6.3 million below 2004/05, and the lowest since 1982/83. The global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.5 percent, down from 18.1 percent in 2004/05, and the lowest since 1976/77. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 89.2 million tons, down 8 percent from 2004/05. Soybean production will account for most of the reduction, falling 8 percent from last season's record crop to 2,895 million bushels (78.8 million tons). Other U.S. oilseed production is expected to decline by 0.6 million tons as smaller cottonseed production more than offsets gains for sunflowerseed and canola. Soybean supplies are projected to reach 3,253 million bushels, almost unchanged from 2004/05. Ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 290 million bushels, down 65 million as crush and exports expand modestly. Higher soybean crush reflects moderate increases in domestic soybean meal demand and exports. Soybean exports are projected to increase to 1,125 million bushels for 2005/06. Large U.S. soybean supplies combined with lower than expected Brazilian stocks this fall are projected to boost U.S. soybean exports to record levels. Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 378 million tons, down 2.3 million from 2004/05. If realized, this will be the first year-to-year decline in global oilseed production since 1995/96. Lower production in the U.S. will more than offset a 5 million ton increase in foreign production. The U.S. seasonal average soybean price for 2005/06 is projected at $4.70 to $5.70 per bushel, compared with $5.65 per bushel in 2004/05. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $150 to $180 per short ton, compared with $175 per ton for 2004/05. Soybean oil prices are also projected lower at 20 to 23 cents per pound compared with 22.5 cents per pound for 2004/05. Global 2004/05 oilseed output is projected at 380.3 million tons, down 2.5 million tons from last month. Brazil's soybean crop is reduced 1 million tons to 53.0 million tons, reflecting the impact of dry weather on yields in the southern growing region. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2005/06 is 11.1 million short tons, raw value, down from 11.6 million in 2004/05, mainly due to lower beginning stocks. Production of 8.1 million tons is up marginally. Beet sugar production is lower, at 4.37 million tons, while cane sugar is higher at 3.77 million tons. Imports under the sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ) are put at 1.206 million short tons to reflect only the U.S. commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus a shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. Imports under the other programs, mainly for re-export, are 325,000 tons and other non-program imports are 60,000 tons. Projected use totals 10.32 million tons, comprising 9.95 million tons delivered for domestic food use, 165,000 tons for other domestic deliveries, and 200,000 tons of sugar exports. Year-ending stocks are 759,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties regarding the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products related to the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 and 2006 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. It is also assumed that the current delay in the implementation of the minimal-risk rule is temporary. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Total U.S. meat production in 2006 is forecast above 2005 as gains are expected in both red meat and poultry production. Although beef production likely will be constrained by heifer retention and lower cow numbers, normalized trade in cattle less than 30 months old and higher slaughter weights are expected to raise beef production. Pork production is forecast slightly higher as producers continue their cautious expansion. Although returns to hog producers have been good and feed prices are expected to remain moderate, increased meat supplies are expected to result in lower hog prices, pressuring returns for hog producers during late 2005 and into 2006. Broiler and turkey production is forecast to rise as moderate feed costs and relatively stable broiler and turkey prices encourage expansion. Egg production is forecast higher in 2006 as prices in the latter part of 2005 recover. Red meat and poultry production in 2005 is reduced from last month. The beef production forecast is reduced because slaughter in the second quarter is expected to be lower than previously forecast. Small changes are made to production of other meats. Meat exports in 2006 are forecast higher than 2005 due to increased pork and poultry shipments. Small gains in 2006 beef exports are currently forecast as major markets are assumed closed due to the BSE discovery in 2004. Meat imports are forecast to increase slightly in 2006. Import forecasts for 2005 are reduced slightly from last month reflecting weaker-than-expected beef and pork shipments during the first quarter. Beef imports are also reduced slightly due to expected short-term disruptions in imports of beef from Brazil. The broiler export forecast for 2005 is reduced as first quarter shipments were smaller than previously expected. Cattle and hog prices in 2006 are forecast to weaken as supplies of meat are expected to increase. Broiler prices are expected to be little changed as increases in broiler production are moderate. Turkey prices are forecast to decline slightly. Egg prices will increase as production increases modestly. In 2005, the cattle price forecast is increased to $85 to $89 per cwt and hogs are raised to $48 to $51 per cwt. Tight supplies of cattle and hogs are pushing prices higher. Broiler and turkey prices are unchanged. Milk production in 2006 is forecast above 2005 as relatively strong milk prices over the past 2 years are expected to help stabilize cow numbers in 2006. Milk per cow is expected to increase at a more rapid rate in 2006. Fat-basis commercial use is expected to increase more rapidly than in 2005, but growth in commercial use of skim solids is expected to be somewhat slower than this year. Milk prices are forecast to fall from the strong prices of 2005 as product prices weaken. With weaker nonfat dry milk prices, positive CCC net removals of nonfat dry milk are forecast for 2006. The dairy production forecast for 2005 is raised from last month as slower milk per cow growth is more than offset by higher cow numbers. Fat basis commercial use is little changed from last month and fat basis stocks are higher. Commercial nonfat dry milk exports are expected to continue to help absorb skim solid supplies. Larger milk supplies result in lower milk prices than forecast previously. COTTON: The first U.S. projections for 2005/06 include lower production and domestic mill use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks relative to 2004/05. Production of 19.5 million bales, 16 percent below last season, reflects the most recent three-year national average abandonment rate and yield. Domestic mill use is projected down 8 percent to 5.8 million bales, as growth in textile imports is likely to reduce domestic mills' market share; this estimate does not include impacts from potential safeguards on China textile imports currently under consideration by the Committee for the Implementation of Textile Agreements. Exports are projected to reach a record 14.5 million bales, supported by strong growth in China's import demand. Ending stocks will fall 11 percent to 6.3 million bales, or 31 percent of total use. The world 2005/06 projections include sharply lower production and higher consumption and trade, with ending stocks projected to fall about 8 percent. China's planted area is likely to fall about 15 percent from last season due to low prices at harvest; reduced production in China and the United States accounts for about 60 percent of the 12.3-million-bale decline anticipated for the world. World consumption of 111.5 million bales assumes above-average growth for the second consecutive year, based on continued expansion in textile demand and favorable cotton prices relative to polyester. A sharp increase in world trade is driven by anticipated China imports of 15.0 million bales, nearly double the estimated 2004/05 level. World ending stocks are projected at 45.2 million bales. For 2004/05, the U.S. estimates include slightly higher production that is offset by higher exports. Production reflects revisions reported by NASS, while exports reflect sales and shipments to date. World 2004/05 beginning stocks are raised 1.7 million bales to include historical revisions to China's balance sheet beginning in 1994/95 a full explanation of these adjustments will be posted at 9:00 a.m. on May 12 at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/cotton/circular/2005/05/ChinaReport.p df. World 2004/05 production is raised marginally from last month, while a consumption increase of about 900,000 bales includes increases for China, Thailand, and Pakistan. Imports are raised mainly in Thailand and Mexico, partially offset by a decrease for Indonesia. World ending stocks are 1.2 million bales above last month. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 32. APPROVED: CHARLES F. CONNER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE In 2005, the WASDE report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on June 10, July 12, Aug. 12, Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 10 and Dec. 9. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-422-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 1,857.60 2,300.98 240.06 1,947.89 353.09 2004/05 (Est.) : 2,035.84 2,388.93 229.14 1,990.17 398.76 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 1,980.18 2,378.94 230.82 2,000.58 378.36 Wheat : 2003/04 : 553.92 719.70 109.53 588.78 130.92 2004/05 (Est.) : 624.90 755.82 106.27 606.27 149.55 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 615.21 764.77 108.17 617.33 147.44 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 914.21 1,081.49 103.49 945.51 135.98 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,008.89 1,144.87 98.08 970.47 174.40 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 954.65 1,129.06 98.20 966.67 162.39 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 389.47 499.79 27.04 413.60 86.19 2004/05 (Est.) : 402.05 488.23 24.79 413.43 74.80 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 410.31 485.11 24.45 416.59 68.53 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 345.33 395.14 88.61 262.13 44.40 2004/05 (Est.) : 385.57 434.45 82.55 274.22 77.68 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 362.93 445.12 84.14 271.71 89.27 Wheat : 2003/04 : 63.81 78.90 31.56 32.48 14.87 2004/05 (Est.) : 58.74 75.52 28.58 32.22 14.72 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 59.46 76.09 25.86 31.79 18.45 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 275.10 308.49 53.72 226.01 28.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 319.45 350.35 50.58 238.07 61.70 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 296.32 360.16 54.48 235.91 69.78 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 6.42 7.74 3.33 3.65 0.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 7.38 8.59 3.39 3.94 1.26 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 7.14 8.86 3.81 4.02 1.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-422-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 1,512.27 1,905.84 151.46 1,685.75 308.69 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,650.27 1,954.48 146.59 1,715.94 321.08 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 1,617.25 1,933.82 146.68 1,728.88 289.09 Wheat : 2003/04 : 490.11 640.80 77.98 556.30 116.05 2004/05 (Est.) : 566.16 680.31 77.70 574.05 134.83 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 555.75 688.68 82.32 585.54 128.99 Coarse grains 5/ : 2003/04 : 639.11 773.00 49.77 719.50 107.22 2004/05 (Est.) : 689.44 794.52 47.50 732.40 112.71 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 658.33 768.89 43.72 730.76 92.61 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 383.05 492.04 23.71 409.95 85.43 2004/05 (Est.) : 394.67 479.65 21.40 409.49 73.55 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 403.17 476.25 20.64 412.57 67.49 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2003/04 : 95.12 134.72 33.06 98.60 37.34 2004/05 (Est.) : 119.32 156.65 33.73 107.98 49.07 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 107.00 156.07 39.00 111.50 45.17 : United States 2003/04 : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.49 3.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 23.25 26.79 13.40 6.30 7.10 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 19.50 26.64 14.50 5.80 6.30 : Foreign 3/ 2003/04 : 76.86 111.03 19.30 92.11 33.83 2004/05 (Est.) : 96.07 129.87 20.33 101.68 41.97 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 87.50 129.43 24.50 105.70 38.87 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-422-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 336.37 381.60 66.40 278.98 42.25 2004/05 (Est.) : 380.26 422.52 72.62 298.10 57.58 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 378.00 435.58 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 190.72 195.87 57.20 189.95 5.30 2004/05 (Est.) : 202.92 208.22 57.90 202.63 4.71 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 100.53 107.17 38.34 98.31 6.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 107.19 113.95 40.02 105.54 6.99 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 76.60 82.94 24.98 45.53 4.15 2004/05 (Est.) : 96.44 101.20 30.84 48.76 10.84 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 89.21 100.85 31.57 50.31 9.07 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 35.16 37.25 4.17 32.81 0.27 2004/05 (Est.) : 37.78 39.48 5.64 33.55 0.29 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 38.84 40.61 5.99 34.34 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 8.76 11.59 0.74 10.07 0.77 2004/05 (Est.) : 9.41 11.99 0.86 10.32 0.81 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 9.72 12.33 0.99 10.48 0.85 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 259.77 298.66 41.42 233.45 38.10 2004/05 (Est.) : 283.82 321.31 41.78 249.35 46.75 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : 288.79 334.73 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 155.55 158.62 53.03 157.15 5.02 2004/05 (Est.) : 165.14 168.73 52.26 169.08 4.42 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 91.78 95.58 37.60 88.23 5.99 2004/05 (Est.) : 97.78 101.96 39.17 95.21 6.18 2005/06 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-422-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.1 59.7 58.6 * Harvested : 53.1 50.0 51.2 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 44.2 43.2 42.7 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 491 546 541 Production : 2,345 2,158 2,185 Imports : 63 70 70 Supply, total : 2,899 2,775 2,796 Food : 907 890 890 Seed : 80 79 78 Feed and residual : 207 215 200 Domestic, total : 1,193 1,184 1,168 Exports : 1,159 1,050 950 Use, total : 2,353 2,234 2,118 Ending stocks : 546 541 678 CCC inventory : 61 54 Free stocks : 485 487 Outstanding loans : 37 55 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.39 2.55- 3.05 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum :Total =============================================================================== 2004/05 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 26 546 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 691 463 389 146 2,775 Domestic use : 517 243 255 94 75 1,184 Exports : 387 310 125 200 28 1,050 Use, total : 904 553 380 294 103 2,234 Ending stocks May : 180 138 84 95 43 541 Apr : 180 138 84 95 43 541 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2005, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using 10-year average harvested-to-planted ratios and projected yield derived from 1985-2004 trend yield. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 12 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2005/06 will first be published * * in the July 12 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-422-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.0 97.0 97.1 * Harvested : 85.7 86.0 86.2 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.21 3.71 3.44 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 30.9 28.7 61.7 Production : 274.9 319.2 296.1 Imports : 2.4 2.0 2.0 Supply, total : 308.2 350.0 359.8 Feed and residual : 156.0 162.1 157.2 Food, seed & industrial : 69.7 75.7 78.4 Domestic, total : 225.7 237.7 235.6 Exports : 53.7 50.6 54.5 Use, total : 279.4 288.3 290.1 Ending stocks, total : 28.7 61.7 69.8 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 28.7 61.6 Outstanding loans : 4.4 7.1 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.6 80.9 81.4 * Harvested : 70.9 73.6 74.2 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 142.2 160.4 148.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,087 958 2,215 Production : 10,089 11,807 10,985 Imports : 14 10 10 Supply, total : 11,190 12,775 13,210 Feed and residual : 5,798 6,000 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 2,537 2,760 2,870 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,168 1,400 1,500 Domestic, total : 8,335 8,760 8,720 Exports : 1,897 1,800 1,950 Use, total : 10,232 10,560 10,670 Ending stocks, total : 958 2,215 2,540 CCC inventory : 0 1 Free stocks : 958 2,214 Outstanding loans : 164 275 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.42 2.00- 2.10 1.55- 1.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of corn use including fuel alcohol see the ERS Feed Outlook table 5, or ERS feed grain data at http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/. Under "Custom" select data type: supply and use. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 2005, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected based on the relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2004 omitting 2002. Projected yield derived from a linear trend fit over 1960-2004 (1988 omitted), adjusted for 2005 planting progress. WASDE-422-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.4 7.5 7.4 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.8 6.5 6.4 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 52.7 69.8 63.7 * Beginning stocks : 43 34 66 Production : 411 455 405 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 454 488 471 Feed and residual : 180 195 170 Food, seed & industrial : 40 52 53 Total domestic : 220 247 223 Exports : 201 175 180 Use, total : 421 422 403 Ending stocks, total : 34 66 68 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.39 1.65- 1.75 1.35- 1.75 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.3 4.5 4.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.0 3.5 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 69.4 63.6 * Beginning stocks : 69 120 135 Production : 278 279 225 Imports : 21 12 15 Supply, total : 368 412 375 Feed and residual : 84 115 100 Food, seed & industrial : 145 145 140 Total domestic : 229 260 240 Exports : 19 17 15 Use, total : 248 277 255 Ending stocks, total : 120 135 120 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.83 2.50 1.95- 2.35 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.6 4.1 4.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.2 1.8 2.0 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 65.0 64.7 63.5 * Beginning stocks : 50 65 54 Production : 144 116 130 Imports : 90 85 85 Supply, total : 285 266 269 Feed and residual : 144 135 130 Food, seed & industrial : 73 74 74 Total domestic : 217 209 204 Exports : 2 3 3 Use, total : 220 212 207 Ending stocks, total : 65 54 62 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.45 1.00- 1.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2005, Prospective Plantings. Harvested Area-- For Sorghum harvested acres is the five year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 1999-2004 (excluding 2002). For barley and oats harvested acres is the five year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 1999-2004 (excluding 2002). Yield-- For sorghum 10 year average yield (1995-2004, excluding 2002). For barley and oats projected yield derived from 1960-2004 trend yield with oat yield adjusted for rounding. WASDE-422-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.02 3.35 3.36 * Harvested : 3.00 3.32 3.33 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,670 6,942 6,751 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 26.8 23.7 39.4 Production : 199.9 230.8 225.0 Imports : 15.6 14.0 14.5 Supply, total : 242.2 268.5 278.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 114.9 123.1 126.2 Exports, total 4/ : 103.7 106.0 120.0 Rough : 34.4 30.0 33.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 69.3 76.0 87.0 Use, total : 218.6 229.1 246.2 Ending stocks : 23.7 39.4 32.7 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.5 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.08 7.20- 7.40 7.20- 7.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.57 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,451 6,569 Beginning stocks : 15.7 10.3 24.0 Production : 149.0 168.9 172.0 Supply, total 7/ : 174.5 190.2 207.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 83.4 86.2 91.0 Exports 8/ : 80.7 80.0 93.0 Use, total : 164.2 166.2 184.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 24.0 23.5 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.75 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,407 8,212 Beginning stocks : 9.3 12.4 14.3 Production : 50.9 61.9 53.0 Supply, total 7/ : 66.8 77.3 70.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 31.4 37.0 35.2 Exports 8/ : 23.0 26.0 27.0 Use, total : 54.4 63.0 62.2 Ending stocks : 12.4 14.3 8.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2005 "Prospective Plantings". Harvested acres are estimated using average harvested-to-planted ratios by class of rice, 2000-2004. Projected yield derived from a linear trend fit over 1990-2004. WASDE-422-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.4 75.2 73.9 * Harvested : 72.5 74.0 72.6 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 33.9 42.5 39.9 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 178 112 355 Production : 2,454 3,141 2,895 Imports : 6 5 3 Supply, total : 2,638 3,258 3,253 Crushings : 1,530 1,650 1,690 Exports : 880 1,100 1,125 Seed : 92 89 91 Residual : 24 64 58 Use, total : 2,525 2,903 2,964 Ending stocks : 112 355 290 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.34 5.65 4.70 - 5.70 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,491 1,076 1,241 Production : 17,080 18,760 19,065 Imports : 306 105 110 Supply, total : 18,877 19,941 20,416 Domestic : 16,866 17,300 17,650 Exports : 935 1,400 1,500 Use, total : 17,801 18,700 19,150 Ending stocks : 1,076 1,241 1,266 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 29.97 22.50 20.00- : 23.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 220 211 250 Production : 36,324 39,324 40,235 Imports : 270 165 165 Supply, total : 36,815 39,700 40,650 Domestic : 32,250 33,450 34,000 Exports : 4,354 6,000 6,400 Use, total : 36,604 39,450 40,400 Ending stocks : 211 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 256.05 175.00 150.00- : 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. *Planted acres are reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted to harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2004 regional trend analysis. WASDE-422-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 2004/05 : 2005/06 Item : 2003/04 :====================:============ : : April May : Projection ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,897 1,343 Production 2/ : 8,649 8,053 8,067 8,140 Beet sugar : 4,692 4,685 4,693 4,370 Cane sugar : 3,957 3,368 3,374 3,770 Florida : 2,154 1,679 1,684 1,950 Hawaii : 251 271 269 250 Louisiana : 1,377 1,260 1,263 1,400 Texas : 175 158 158 170 Imports : 1,754 1,639 1,639 1,591 TRQ 3/ : 1,230 1,229 1,229 1,206 Other program 4/ : 464 350 350 325 Other 5/ : 60 60 60 60 Supply, total : 12,073 11,589 11,603 11,074 : Exports : 288 200 240 200 Deliveries : 9,862 9,980 10,020 10,115 Food : 9,678 9,815 9,875 9,950 Other 6/ : 184 165 145 165 Miscellaneous 7/ : 26 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,176 10,180 10,260 10,315 Ending stocks : 1,897 1,409 1,343 759 Stocks to use ratio : 18.6 13.8 13.1 7.4 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2005/06 are based on March 31 Prospective Plantings and trend yields. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2005/06, includes only the U.S. commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Includes high-tier and other. 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-422-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.48 13.66 13.82 * Harvested : 12.00 13.06 12.57 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 730 855 745 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 5.39 3.51 7.10 Production : 18.26 23.25 19.50 Imports : 0.05 0.03 0.04 Supply, total : 23.69 26.79 26.64 Domestic use : 6.49 6.30 5.80 Exports : 13.76 13.40 14.50 Use, total : 20.25 19.70 20.30 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.07 -0.01 0.04 Ending stocks : 3.51 7.10 6.30 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 61.8 42.8 5/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 2004/05 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area is reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on 2002-2004 U.S. average abandonment. Projected yield per harvested acre based on 2002-2004 U.S.average yield per harvested acre. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2004/05 is 37.5 percent. WASDE-422-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 165.78 553.92 101.99 96.87 588.78 109.53 130.92 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.72 5.64 32.48 31.56 14.87 Total foreign : 152.41 490.11 100.27 91.24 556.30 77.98 116.05 Major exporters 4/ : 27.04 170.69 6.22 57.55 126.73 54.16 23.06 Argentina : 1.53 14.00 0.00 0.08 5.23 9.41 0.90 Australia : 3.14 26.23 0.07 3.23 5.96 18.03 5.46 Canada : 5.73 23.55 0.23 3.44 7.64 15.79 6.08 EU-25 5/ : 16.64 106.90 5.91 50.80 107.90 10.93 10.63 Major importers 6/ : 78.87 149.06 51.89 9.97 210.64 6.81 62.37 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.18 0.20 9.80 1.38 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.85 17.99 7.95 1.30 26.22 1.00 5.56 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.29 15.48 0.30 30.08 0.18 7.46 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 10.09 1.32 9.20 0.32 2.15 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 16.48 60.91 7.11 17.58 65.65 7.85 11.00 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.03 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.65 Kazakhstan : 3.67 11.00 0.01 2.70 6.80 4.11 3.78 Ukraine : 3.25 3.60 3.37 0.43 9.03 0.07 1.13 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 130.92 624.90 104.86 106.84 606.27 106.27 149.55 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.91 5.85 32.22 28.58 14.72 Total foreign : 116.05 566.16 102.96 100.99 574.05 77.70 134.83 Major exporters 4/ : 23.06 200.03 6.29 63.98 134.60 55.00 39.78 Argentina : 0.90 16.00 0.01 0.08 5.30 10.50 1.11 Australia : 5.46 21.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 16.00 5.43 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.20 5.00 9.20 15.00 7.94 EU-25 5/ : 10.63 136.67 6.00 56.00 114.50 13.50 25.30 Major importers 6/ : 62.37 154.29 58.80 8.54 212.31 3.05 60.10 Brazil : 0.51 6.02 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.05 1.38 China : 43.29 91.00 7.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.16 9.45 1.90 27.49 0.60 5.09 N. Africa 8/ : 7.46 16.60 16.50 0.30 31.73 0.21 8.62 Pakistan : 1.58 19.00 1.50 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.53 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.15 0.00 9.75 1.11 9.40 0.29 2.21 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 72.48 2.00 4.50 FSU-12 : 11.00 86.43 4.09 21.31 72.93 13.06 15.53 Russia : 2.65 45.30 1.20 14.00 38.00 6.30 4.85 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.20 2.40 12.00 3.80 3.03 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-422-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 149.55 615.21 103.74 111.04 617.33 108.17 147.44 United States : May : 14.72 59.46 1.91 5.44 31.79 25.86 18.45 Total foreign : May : 134.83 555.75 101.83 105.60 585.54 82.32 128.99 Major exporters 4/ : May : 39.78 189.50 6.34 67.48 138.60 58.50 38.52 Argentina May : 1.11 15.50 0.01 0.08 5.30 10.50 0.82 Australia May : 5.43 23.00 0.08 3.10 5.80 16.50 6.21 Canada May : 7.94 23.50 0.25 4.30 8.50 15.50 7.69 EU-25 5/ May : 25.30 127.50 6.00 60.00 119.00 16.00 23.80 Major importers 6/ : May : 60.10 155.42 56.45 8.10 213.24 3.14 55.59 Brazil May : 1.38 5.00 5.20 0.20 10.20 0.05 1.33 China May : 38.29 93.00 4.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 33.29 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 5.09 18.33 10.30 2.00 27.39 0.60 5.73 N. Africa 8/ May : 8.62 14.03 17.40 0.30 32.73 0.21 7.11 Pakistan May : 2.53 21.00 0.50 0.40 20.00 0.05 3.98 SE Asia 9/ May : 2.21 0.00 9.75 1.18 9.65 0.28 2.03 Selected other : India May : 4.50 74.00 0.02 0.50 73.02 1.00 4.50 FSU-12 May : 15.53 86.75 3.99 22.81 75.23 15.26 15.78 Russia May : 4.85 45.00 1.20 15.00 39.00 7.00 5.05 Kazakhstan May : 3.64 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.40 4.00 3.76 Ukraine May : 3.03 16.70 0.20 3.00 13.00 4.00 2.93 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-422-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 167.28 914.21 101.35 614.96 945.51 103.49 135.98 United States : 30.94 275.10 2.45 156.08 226.01 53.72 28.76 Total foreign : 136.34 639.11 98.90 458.88 719.50 49.77 107.22 Major exporters 4/ : 7.87 70.09 2.51 34.13 47.29 22.74 10.44 Argentina : 1.04 18.60 0.05 5.15 7.51 11.11 1.07 Australia : 1.20 14.81 0.00 5.47 6.70 7.22 2.09 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.09 19.21 23.81 3.64 4.10 Major importers 5/ : 37.94 195.31 79.36 205.62 274.82 5.50 32.30 EU-25 6/ : 21.50 122.91 8.13 101.94 135.47 4.39 12.68 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.15 37.23 0.01 5.59 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 3.77 26.03 15.97 34.20 40.73 0.35 4.69 Saudi Arabia : 2.65 0.20 8.42 8.65 8.84 0.00 2.43 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.04 15.50 3.92 12.73 18.04 0.75 1.67 South Korea : 1.29 0.30 8.99 6.78 9.14 0.00 1.43 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.53 99.46 139.20 7.72 45.61 Other Europe : 3.11 18.84 1.38 17.26 20.86 0.36 2.11 FSU-12 : 11.98 55.42 1.46 39.24 56.61 6.09 6.16 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.95 21.53 33.25 2.47 2.93 Ukraine : 2.65 15.60 0.14 10.50 13.80 2.77 1.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 135.98 1008.89 97.02 633.90 970.47 98.08 174.40 United States : 28.76 319.45 2.13 162.18 238.07 50.58 61.70 Total foreign : 107.22 689.44 94.89 471.73 732.40 47.50 112.71 Major exporters 4/ : 10.44 73.65 2.44 35.57 49.37 23.81 13.35 Argentina : 1.07 23.71 0.01 6.25 8.86 14.51 1.41 Australia : 2.09 10.96 0.00 5.51 6.79 4.47 1.79 Canada : 4.10 26.44 2.10 19.27 24.07 2.80 5.78 Major importers 5/ : 32.30 223.13 72.93 210.62 280.75 4.70 42.90 EU-25 6/ : 12.68 150.58 3.14 106.16 139.57 4.01 22.82 Japan : 2.15 0.20 19.99 15.46 20.29 0.00 2.05 Mexico : 5.59 29.38 9.15 22.58 38.75 0.01 5.36 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.69 26.48 16.49 35.00 41.94 0.11 5.60 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 7.10 6.83 7.01 0.00 2.72 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.67 15.87 3.57 13.00 18.81 0.58 1.73 South Korea : 1.43 0.34 8.66 7.09 9.52 0.00 0.91 Selected other : China : 45.61 137.05 1.91 100.60 142.35 6.08 36.14 Other Europe : 2.11 28.87 0.80 19.40 24.73 2.20 4.85 FSU-12 : 6.16 62.86 1.42 38.52 55.10 7.39 7.95 Russia : 2.93 29.55 1.00 19.10 29.45 1.00 3.03 Ukraine : 1.82 23.00 0.07 11.75 15.60 6.21 3.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-422-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 174.40 954.65 96.61 628.29 966.67 98.20 162.39 United States : May : 61.70 296.32 2.15 157.30 235.91 54.48 69.78 Total foreign : May : 112.71 658.33 94.47 471.00 730.76 43.72 92.61 Major exporters 4/ : May : 13.35 70.20 2.13 35.84 49.91 23.56 12.21 Argentina May : 1.41 23.15 0.00 6.65 9.26 14.01 1.29 Australia May : 1.79 10.56 0.00 5.04 6.44 4.47 1.43 Canada May : 5.78 26.50 1.86 19.71 24.61 3.55 5.97 Major importers 5/ : May : 42.90 203.65 73.76 208.57 279.05 5.20 36.07 EU-25 6/ May : 22.82 132.98 3.14 102.15 135.59 4.86 18.49 Japan May : 2.05 0.19 19.84 15.36 20.19 0.00 1.89 Mexico May : 5.36 28.83 9.55 22.78 39.20 0.01 4.53 N Afr/M.East 7/May : 5.60 24.77 16.18 35.28 42.23 0.01 4.31 Saudi Arabia May : 2.72 0.20 7.60 7.63 7.81 0.00 2.71 S.-east Asia 8/May : 1.73 16.27 3.71 13.88 19.74 0.33 1.64 South Korea May : 0.91 0.35 9.01 7.04 9.47 0.00 0.79 Selected other : China May : 36.14 135.70 2.01 101.90 144.50 3.10 26.25 Other Europe May : 4.85 24.68 0.85 19.46 24.59 2.35 3.44 FSU-12 May : 7.95 56.39 1.70 36.47 53.27 6.07 6.70 Russia May : 3.03 28.60 1.25 18.50 29.10 0.81 2.98 Ukraine May : 3.09 18.20 0.09 10.15 14.00 4.98 2.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-422-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 123.60 623.80 76.69 444.63 647.26 76.92 100.13 United States : 27.60 256.28 0.36 147.27 211.72 48.18 24.34 Total foreign : 95.99 367.52 76.33 297.36 435.54 28.74 75.79 Major exporters 4/ : 2.97 24.70 0.29 7.10 13.30 11.50 3.16 Argentina : 0.53 15.00 0.04 3.00 4.60 10.75 0.21 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.25 4.10 8.70 0.75 2.94 Major importers 5/ : 13.44 82.89 49.61 91.27 130.97 1.20 13.78 Egypt : 0.20 5.74 3.74 8.00 9.50 0.00 0.18 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.86 5.75 36.01 46.81 0.46 3.17 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.71 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.34 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.37 3.89 12.60 17.90 0.73 1.66 South Korea : 1.29 0.07 8.78 6.60 8.71 0.00 1.43 Selected other : Brazil : 4.80 42.00 0.35 33.00 38.60 4.44 4.11 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.04 8.74 11.24 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 97.00 128.40 7.55 44.85 Other Europe : 2.58 15.13 0.91 14.35 16.67 0.34 1.61 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.54 0.64 9.56 11.05 1.31 1.35 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 100.13 708.23 74.35 465.26 679.67 74.98 128.70 United States : 24.34 299.92 0.25 152.41 222.51 45.72 56.27 Total foreign : 75.79 408.32 74.10 312.86 457.15 29.26 72.43 Major exporters 4/ : 3.16 31.50 0.16 7.80 14.15 16.00 4.67 Argentina : 0.21 19.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.00 0.52 South Africa : 2.94 12.00 0.15 4.30 8.95 2.00 4.14 Major importers 5/ : 13.78 96.93 45.86 98.75 139.10 1.06 16.41 Egypt : 0.18 5.78 4.30 8.40 9.95 0.00 0.31 EU-25 6/ : 3.17 53.35 2.50 41.70 52.50 0.50 6.02 Japan : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 4.34 22.00 5.50 12.10 27.40 0.01 4.43 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.66 15.67 3.56 12.85 18.65 0.55 1.70 South Korea : 1.43 0.08 8.50 7.00 9.10 0.00 0.91 Selected other : Brazil : 4.11 37.50 2.00 35.00 40.60 1.30 1.71 Canada : 1.14 8.84 2.00 8.00 10.60 0.15 1.23 China : 44.85 128.00 0.10 98.50 131.50 6.00 35.45 Other Europe : 1.61 23.44 0.36 15.94 19.73 1.40 4.29 FSU-12 : 1.35 15.30 0.64 11.39 13.04 1.83 2.42 Russia : 0.16 3.45 0.40 3.10 3.65 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-422-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 128.70 674.27 73.76 463.85 680.87 74.48 122.10 United States : May : 56.27 279.03 0.25 148.60 221.50 49.53 64.53 Total foreign : May : 72.43 395.24 73.51 315.25 459.38 24.95 57.57 Major exporters 4/ : May : 4.67 28.50 0.10 8.00 14.40 15.00 3.87 Argentina May : 0.52 19.00 0.00 3.80 5.50 13.50 0.52 South Africa May : 4.14 9.50 0.10 4.20 8.90 1.50 3.34 Major importers 5/ : May : 16.41 91.61 46.40 98.80 139.30 0.91 14.21 Egypt May : 0.31 5.95 4.20 8.50 10.15 0.00 0.31 EU-25 6/ May : 6.02 47.87 2.50 40.50 51.10 0.60 4.68 Japan May : 1.34 0.00 16.70 12.25 16.75 0.00 1.29 Mexico May : 4.43 21.60 5.90 12.60 28.10 0.01 3.83 S.-east Asia 7/May : 1.70 16.07 3.70 13.70 19.55 0.30 1.61 South Korea May : 0.91 0.08 8.80 6.90 9.00 0.00 0.79 Selected other : Brazil May : 1.71 44.00 0.40 36.00 41.90 2.00 2.21 Canada May : 1.23 8.90 1.80 8.00 10.60 0.20 1.13 China May : 35.45 127.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 3.00 25.65 Other Europe May : 4.29 19.72 0.46 16.06 19.85 1.70 2.92 FSU-12 May : 2.42 11.05 1.01 9.99 11.58 1.13 1.78 Russia May : 0.36 2.00 0.80 2.50 3.00 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-422-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 3/ : 110.32 389.47 24.80 413.60 27.04 86.19 United States : 0.83 6.42 0.50 3.65 3.33 0.76 Total foreign : 109.49 383.05 24.31 409.95 23.71 85.43 Major exporters 4/ : 17.81 131.94 0.04 114.47 19.48 15.84 India : 11.00 87.00 0.00 84.10 3.10 10.80 Pakistan : 0.05 4.85 0.00 2.70 1.95 0.24 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.14 1.71 Vietnam : 3.47 22.08 0.04 18.20 4.30 3.09 Major importers 5/ : 12.34 59.35 9.41 68.13 0.34 12.63 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.70 8.68 0.05 1.27 EU-25 6/ : 0.96 1.72 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.65 36.00 0.00 4.02 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.20 1.29 10.25 0.00 4.05 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.21 2.99 5.15 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.35 0.47 0.00 0.11 China : 67.22 112.46 1.12 135.00 0.88 44.93 Egypt : 0.72 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.83 0.49 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.54 0.73 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.19 4.64 0.21 0.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 3/ : 86.19 402.05 24.60 413.43 24.79 74.80 United States : 0.76 7.38 0.45 3.94 3.39 1.26 Total foreign : 85.43 394.67 24.16 409.49 21.40 73.55 Major exporters 4/ : 15.84 130.06 0.04 114.83 17.70 13.41 India : 10.80 86.00 0.00 84.00 3.00 9.80 Pakistan : 0.24 4.92 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.41 Thailand : 1.71 17.00 0.00 9.48 8.50 0.73 Vietnam : 3.09 22.14 0.04 18.60 4.20 2.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.63 59.56 9.38 68.65 0.34 12.58 Brazil : 1.27 8.40 0.55 8.83 0.10 1.28 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.83 0.70 35.85 0.00 3.70 Nigeria : 1.15 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.57 Philippines : 4.05 9.40 1.25 10.40 0.00 4.30 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.27 3.45 5.22 0.06 1.43 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.15 1.33 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.11 China : 44.93 126.00 0.90 135.10 0.50 36.23 Egypt : 0.49 3.93 0.00 3.33 0.75 0.35 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.68 8.30 0.20 1.82 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.80 0.00 0.13 South Korea : 0.82 5.00 0.22 4.74 0.00 1.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-422-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 74.80 410.31 23.90 416.59 24.45 68.53 United States : May : 1.26 7.14 0.46 4.02 3.81 1.04 Total foreign : May : 73.55 403.17 23.44 412.57 20.64 67.49 Major exporters 4/ : May : 13.41 135.10 0.04 116.29 17.00 15.26 India May : 9.80 90.00 0.00 85.00 3.00 11.80 Pakistan May : 0.41 5.00 0.00 2.80 2.00 0.61 Thailand May : 0.73 17.80 0.00 9.49 8.00 1.04 Vietnam May : 2.47 22.30 0.04 19.00 4.00 1.81 Major importers 5/ : May : 12.58 59.44 9.19 69.11 0.34 11.76 Brazil May : 1.28 8.10 0.55 9.10 0.10 0.74 EU-25 6/ May : 1.13 1.80 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.18 Indonesia May : 3.70 34.90 0.70 35.60 0.00 3.70 Nigeria May : 0.57 2.60 1.40 4.35 0.00 0.22 Philippines May : 4.30 9.30 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.25 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 1.43 2.27 3.25 5.32 0.06 1.57 Selected other : Burma May : 1.33 10.73 0.00 10.40 0.15 1.51 C. Am & Car. 8/May : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.10 China May : 36.23 127.50 0.90 135.20 0.60 28.83 Egypt May : 0.35 4.00 0.00 3.35 0.75 0.25 Japan May : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Mexico May : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.83 0.00 0.10 South Korea May : 1.30 4.90 0.25 4.66 0.00 1.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-422-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World : 39.60 95.12 33.96 98.60 33.06 -0.31 37.34 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.49 13.76 -0.07 3.51 Total foreign : 34.22 76.86 33.92 92.11 19.30 -0.24 33.83 Major exporters 4/ : 11.51 30.74 3.18 18.26 14.83 -0.16 12.49 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.75 6.74 0.01 1.82 4.99 0.00 1.69 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.44 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 4.85 9.36 0.95 5.02 3.90 -0.20 6.44 Australia : 1.30 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.12 0.89 Brazil : 2.88 6.02 0.55 3.95 0.96 -0.10 4.63 Major importers : 20.45 42.67 26.11 67.18 3.05 -0.09 19.08 India : 3.59 13.80 0.80 13.50 0.63 0.00 4.06 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.12 0.03 1.10 China : 10.40 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 -0.25 9.61 EU-25 8/ : 1.51 1.96 3.10 3.85 1.71 0.06 0.95 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.37 4.10 2.37 6.20 0.36 0.00 1.28 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.33 0.15 7.68 8.13 0.06 0.08 1.89 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.56 0.06 1.68 1.85 0.00 0.03 0.42 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World : 37.34 119.32 33.79 107.98 33.73 -0.34 49.07 United States : 3.51 23.25 0.03 6.30 13.40 -0.01 7.10 Total foreign : 33.83 96.07 33.76 101.68 20.33 -0.33 41.97 Major exporters 4/ : 12.49 37.82 1.91 19.52 15.87 -0.16 16.99 Pakistan : 2.03 11.30 1.00 10.40 0.60 0.03 3.31 Central Asia 5/ : 1.69 7.93 3/ 1.96 5.34 0.00 2.32 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.28 4.72 3/ 0.20 3.96 0.00 1.84 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.53 0.51 5.29 4.36 -0.20 8.04 Australia : 0.89 2.70 3/ 0.07 1.90 -0.12 1.76 Brazil : 4.63 6.40 0.20 4.20 1.80 -0.10 5.33 Major importers : 19.08 54.23 27.29 75.50 3.00 -0.19 22.30 India : 4.06 18.00 0.60 15.00 0.90 0.00 6.76 Mexico : 1.10 0.63 1.90 2.10 0.18 0.03 1.33 China : 9.61 29.00 8.00 38.00 0.03 -0.35 8.93 EU-25 8/ : 0.95 2.30 3.16 3.55 1.69 0.06 1.11 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.28 4.15 3.15 6.75 0.15 0.00 1.68 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.89 0.16 9.00 8.65 0.06 0.08 2.26 Indonesia : 0.37 0.04 2.25 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.39 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.30 2.20 0.01 0.03 0.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-422-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World : May : 49.07 107.00 39.30 111.50 39.00 -0.30 45.17 United States : May : 7.10 19.50 0.04 5.80 14.50 0.04 6.30 Total foreign : May : 41.97 87.50 39.26 105.70 24.50 -0.34 38.87 China : May : 8.93 25.50 15.00 41.00 0.03 -0.35 8.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the estimated difference between stocks based on supply less total use and estimated ending stocks. WASDE-422-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 33.26 197.04 62.75 165.02 190.73 61.57 40.75 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.95 47.52 28.42 4.85 Total foreign : 27.60 122.03 62.62 121.08 143.21 33.15 35.89 Major exporters 3/ : 22.36 92.00 1.71 51.90 55.94 31.65 28.49 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.38 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.47 Brazil : 12.11 52.00 1.32 27.17 29.76 19.73 15.93 Major importers 4/ : 4.28 18.79 51.34 53.57 67.66 0.31 6.44 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.06 0.89 16.87 16.29 17.87 0.02 0.93 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 40.75 188.55 53.95 164.21 190.53 55.30 37.41 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.78 23.95 3.06 Total foreign : 35.89 121.77 53.80 122.58 145.76 31.36 34.35 Major exporters 3/ : 28.49 89.60 0.88 55.72 60.37 29.03 29.57 Argentina : 12.47 33.00 0.54 25.04 26.62 6.71 12.68 Brazil : 15.93 52.60 0.33 29.33 32.24 19.82 16.80 Major importers 4/ : 6.44 17.50 43.57 49.26 63.36 0.34 3.81 China : 4.47 15.39 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.71 14.64 14.21 15.53 0.01 0.74 Japan : 0.71 0.23 4.69 3.66 4.97 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.89 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 37.41 219.23 61.87 174.28 203.47 62.45 52.59 May : 37.41 216.88 61.60 173.40 202.57 62.24 51.08 United States : April : 3.06 85.48 0.14 44.91 49.08 29.39 10.21 May : 3.06 85.48 0.14 44.91 49.08 29.94 9.67 Total foreign : April : 34.35 133.74 61.74 129.38 154.39 33.06 42.38 May : 34.35 131.39 61.47 128.50 153.49 32.31 41.41 Major exporters 3/ : April : 29.57 97.50 0.75 56.52 61.56 30.51 35.74 May : 29.57 95.80 0.75 56.40 61.44 29.92 34.76 Argentina Apr : 12.68 39.00 0.45 25.32 26.97 7.67 17.49 May : 12.68 39.00 0.45 25.32 26.97 7.57 17.59 Brazil Apr : 16.80 54.00 0.28 29.58 32.76 20.25 18.08 May : 16.80 53.00 0.28 29.58 32.76 20.25 17.08 Major importers 4/ : April : 3.81 20.31 50.89 53.84 69.05 0.38 5.57 May : 3.81 20.31 50.54 53.49 68.70 0.38 5.57 China Apr : 2.10 18.00 22.80 29.00 38.85 0.35 3.70 May : 2.10 18.00 22.80 29.00 38.85 0.35 3.70 EU-25 Apr : 0.74 0.80 15.66 14.90 16.30 0.01 0.89 May : 0.74 0.80 15.36 14.60 16.00 0.01 0.89 Japan Apr : 0.65 0.28 4.70 3.65 4.99 0.00 0.64 May : 0.65 0.28 4.65 3.60 4.94 0.00 0.64 Mexico Apr : 0.04 0.13 4.10 4.19 4.23 0.00 0.04 May : 0.04 0.13 4.10 4.19 4.23 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-422-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 4.04 130.05 41.81 129.49 42.34 4.07 United States : 0.22 34.65 0.15 29.36 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.82 95.40 41.66 100.14 36.87 3.87 Major exporters 3/ : 0.95 42.67 0.35 9.93 32.88 1.16 Argentina : 0.13 18.59 0.00 0.33 18.04 0.35 Brazil : 0.78 21.35 0.35 8.10 13.61 0.77 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.50 1.23 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.38 35.85 25.66 60.53 1.17 1.20 EU-25 : 1.05 12.83 20.35 33.02 0.34 0.87 China : 0.00 21.00 0.00 20.21 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.07 129.32 44.02 128.99 44.21 4.21 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.25 29.26 3.95 0.19 Total foreign : 3.87 96.37 43.77 99.74 40.26 4.02 Major exporters 3/ : 1.16 46.96 0.27 10.02 36.62 1.75 Argentina : 0.35 19.76 0.00 0.62 18.55 0.94 Brazil : 0.77 22.78 0.27 8.28 14.76 0.78 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 33.16 26.77 58.91 1.09 1.13 EU-25 : 0.87 11.18 21.86 32.67 0.40 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.56 0.65 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 4.21 137.25 44.75 136.75 45.26 4.19 May : 4.21 136.96 45.21 137.03 45.67 3.68 United States : April : 0.19 35.54 0.15 30.30 5.35 0.23 May : 0.19 35.67 0.15 30.35 5.44 0.23 Total foreign : April : 4.02 101.71 44.60 106.45 39.91 3.96 May : 4.02 101.29 45.06 106.69 40.23 3.45 Major exporters 3/ : April : 1.75 47.40 0.20 11.76 35.94 1.65 May : 1.75 47.26 0.20 11.72 36.34 1.15 Argentina Apr : 0.94 19.76 0.00 0.76 19.03 0.92 May : 0.94 19.96 0.00 0.76 19.73 0.42 Brazil Apr : 0.78 23.22 0.20 8.71 14.81 0.68 May : 0.78 23.22 0.20 8.71 14.81 0.68 India Apr : 0.04 4.42 0.00 2.30 2.10 0.05 May : 0.04 4.08 0.00 2.26 1.80 0.05 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.13 36.55 26.78 62.11 1.23 1.12 May : 1.13 36.34 27.28 62.41 1.23 1.12 EU-25 Apr : 0.85 11.73 21.75 33.11 0.36 0.86 May : 0.85 11.49 22.25 33.37 0.36 0.86 China Apr : 0.00 22.95 0.05 22.18 0.82 0.00 May : 0.00 22.95 0.06 22.19 0.82 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-422-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 2.62 30.35 8.53 30.20 9.42 1.87 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.55 21.99 8.51 22.46 8.39 1.20 Major exporters 3/ : 0.58 12.39 0.11 5.36 7.34 0.38 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.11 0.07 2.99 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.27 2.90 0.04 2.26 0.73 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.13 8.51 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.26 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.87 30.03 8.36 29.73 8.99 1.53 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.42 0.49 Total foreign : 1.20 22.28 8.22 22.08 8.57 1.05 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.68 0.08 5.09 7.70 0.34 Argentina : 0.05 4.51 0.00 0.11 4.41 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.64 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.10 EU-25 : 0.23 2.53 0.04 2.03 0.57 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.54 9.02 0.03 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 1.53 32.09 9.29 31.83 9.47 1.61 May : 1.53 31.90 9.28 31.64 9.49 1.59 United States : April : 0.49 8.51 0.05 7.85 0.61 0.59 May : 0.49 8.51 0.05 7.85 0.64 0.56 Total foreign : April : 1.05 23.58 9.24 23.98 8.86 1.03 May : 1.05 23.39 9.23 23.79 8.85 1.03 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.34 13.01 0.09 5.20 7.93 0.31 May : 0.34 12.91 0.09 5.09 7.93 0.31 Argentina Apr : 0.04 4.71 0.00 0.12 4.59 0.04 May : 0.04 4.71 0.00 0.12 4.59 0.04 Brazil Apr : 0.10 5.65 0.05 3.01 2.68 0.10 May : 0.10 5.65 0.05 3.01 2.68 0.10 EU-25 Apr : 0.21 2.65 0.04 2.07 0.65 0.17 May : 0.21 2.55 0.04 1.97 0.65 0.17 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.44 6.20 3.94 10.10 0.03 0.45 May : 0.44 6.13 3.98 10.08 0.03 0.45 China Apr : 0.33 5.17 2.36 7.57 0.02 0.27 May : 0.33 5.18 2.30 7.52 0.02 0.27 India Apr : 0.11 1.02 1.50 2.45 0.01 0.17 May : 0.11 0.94 1.60 2.47 0.01 0.17 Pakistan Apr : 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.01 May : 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-422-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2004 : II : 6253 4897 11237 8492 1366 9983 21220 1847 43.8 III : 6360 5047 11493 8839 1390 10365 21858 1870 42.2 IV : 6097 5435 11623 8537 1389 10053 21676 1906 42.0 Annual : 24548 20509 45419 34063 5454 40021 85440 7443 170.8 : 2005 : I : 5727 5136 10951 8453 1302 9876 20827 1855 43.2 II*: 6200 4925 11211 8775 1375 10275 21486 1885 44.8 III*: 6875 5075 12043 9075 1375 10585 22628 1895 42.8 IV*: 6400 5560 12059 8825 1400 10350 22409 1920 43.0 Annual : Apr Proj : 25535 20760 46669 35125 5485 41115 87784 7550 173.5 May Proj : 25202 20696 46264 35128 5452 41086 87350 7555 173.8 : 2006 : I*: 5950 5175 11219 8750 1310 10185 21404 1865 44.2 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 25975 20940 47311 36275 5535 42325 89636 7635 177.9 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2004 : II : 88.15 54.91 79.3 66.6 79.7 18.53 III : 83.58 56.58 75.7 73.1 66.2 15.50 IV : 85.09 54.35 68.3 77.1 68.0 16.07 Annual : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.05 : 2005 : I : 89.09 51.92 71.9 65.9 64.5 15.67 II*: 90-92 54-56 72-74 67-69 59-61 14.55-14.85 III*: 81-85 48-50 72-76 70-74 63-67 13.90-14.50 IV*: 81-87 40-44 71-77 74-80 67-73 14.80-15.70 Annual : Apr Proj : 83-87 48-50 71-75 69-72 64-67 14.75-15.25 May Proj : 85-89 48-51 72-75 69-72 63-66 14.70-15.20 : 2006 : I*: 74-80 45-49 70-76 60-66 67-73 13.90-14.90 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 76-82 44-48 71-77 66-71 68-73 13.15-14.15 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-422-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2004 : 518 24650 3680 28848 461 637 27750 66.1 2005 Proj. Apr : 637 25637 3740 30014 630 575 28809 67.9 May : 637 25304 3701 29642 625 575 28442 67.1 2006 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 575 26077 3740 30392 660 575 29157 68.1 : PORK : 2004 : 532 20529 1100 22161 2179 543 19439 51.3 2005 Proj. Apr : 543 20780 1040 22363 2530 545 19288 50.4 May : 543 20716 1015 22274 2545 545 19184 50.1 2006 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 545 20960 1020 22525 2745 545 19235 49.8 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2004 : 1059 45555 4961 51575 2649 1187 47739 119.0 2005 Proj. Apr : 1187 46804 4960 52951 3168 1128 48655 120.0 May : 1187 46399 4889 52475 3179 1130 48166 118.8 2006 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1130 47446 4935 53511 3413 1130 48968 119.6 : BROILERS : 2004 : 608 33699 27 34334 4768 713 28853 84.3 2005 Proj. Apr : 713 34749 28 35490 5025 650 29815 86.3 May : 713 34752 36 35501 4969 650 29882 86.5 2006 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 650 35887 36 36573 5110 675 30788 88.3 : TURKEYS : 2004 : 354 5383 5 5742 443 288 5011 17.0 2005 Proj. Apr : 288 5413 4 5705 510 250 4945 16.7 May : 288 5381 5 5674 516 250 4908 16.5 2006 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 250 5462 4 5716 525 300 4891 16.3 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2004 : 966 39585 34 40584 5423 1004 34157 102.4 2005 Proj. Apr : 1004 40667 36 41707 5695 903 35109 104.1 May : 1004 40638 45 41687 5621 903 35163 104.3 2006 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 903 41864 44 42811 5775 979 36057 105.8 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2004 : 2025 85140 4995 92159 8072 2191 81896 221.4 2005 Proj. Apr : 2191 87471 4996 94658 8863 2031 83764 224.1 May : 2191 87037 4934 94163 8800 2033 83330 223.0 2006 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 2033 89310 4979 96322 9188 2109 85025 225.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-422-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.3 13.7 14.5 14.5 NA 14.0 Production : 7297.0 7443.0 7550.0 7555.2 NA 7635.0 Imports : 13.3 12.7 12.0 13.0 NA 12.8 Total supply : 7320.6 7469.4 7576.5 7582.7 NA 7661.8 : Use : Exports : 146.2 166.7 200.0 200.0 NA 200.0 Hatching use : 959.4 987.2 1027.0 1026.6 NA 1110.0 Ending stocks : 13.7 14.5 14.0 14.0 NA 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6201.3 6301.0 6335.5 6342.1 NA 6337.8 Per capita (number) : 255.7 257.2 256.1 256.4 NA 253.8 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2003 : 2004 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.4 170.8 173.5 173.8 NA 177.9 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 NA 1.1 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 9.9 8.3 7.2 7.2 NA 7.5 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 172.5 172.7 NA 176.8 Imports : 5.0 5.2 4.9 5.1 NA 4.9 Total cml. supply : 184.2 183.3 184.6 184.9 NA 189.2 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.3 7.2 7.2 7.5 NA 7.4 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 NA 0.3 Commercial use 2/ : 174.7 176.2 177.4 177.4 NA 181.6 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.5 NA 8.2 NA 8.1 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 NA 172.7 NA 176.8 Imports : 5.0 4.8 NA 5.0 NA 4.8 Total cml. supply : 182.8 183.0 NA 185.9 NA 189.7 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.5 8.2 NA 8.1 NA 8.2 CCC net removals 1/ : 8.1 1.3 -0.3 -0.3 NA 1.5 Commercial use 2/ : 166.2 173.5 NA 178.1 NA 180.0 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : 29 -7 0 0 NA 8 Cheese : 41 6 0 0 NA 7 Nonfat dry milk : 664 105 -25 -25 NA 125 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 NA 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-422-32 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.3031 1.6431 NA 1.460- NA 1.330- : 1.510 1.430 : Butter : 1.1194 1.8239 NA 1.455- NA 1.350- : 1.535 1.480 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8090 0.8405 NA 0.880- NA 0.820- : 0.920 0.890 : Dry whey : 0.1667 0.2319 NA 0.225- NA 0.175- : 0.255 0.205 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 11.42 15.39 13.60- 13.55- NA 11.95- : 14.10 14.05 12.95 : Class IV : 10.00 13.20 12.30- 12.05- NA 11.05- : 12.90 12.65 12.15 : All milk 3/ : 12.52 16.05 14.75- 14.70- NA 13.15- : 15.25 15.20 14.15 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-422-33 Note: Tables on pages 33-35 present a 24-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.8 million tons (2.9%) ranging from -35.0 to 30.0 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 10 times. Reliability of May Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.9 15.8 -35.0 30.0 14 10 U.S. : 5.4 3.2 -7.2 9.8 12 12 Foreign : 3.0 14.3 -32.9 28.7 13 11 Exports : World : 4.4 5.0 -16.3 12.7 16 8 U.S. : 8.8 2.9 -10.0 7.8 14 10 Foreign : 5.0 4.1 -12.0 5.3 17 7 Domestic use : World : 1.9 10.1 -28.0 19.9 15 9 U.S. : 6.1 1.9 -6.4 4.0 15 9 Foreign : 1.8 9.1 -24.7 18.4 16 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.6 12.2 -24.4 26.9 15 9 U.S. : 16.4 3.6 -9.0 14.1 14 10 Foreign : 10.2 10.3 -23.3 16.8 13 11 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.2 26.1 -72.3 75.3 9 15 U.S. : 10.2 21.1 -35.9 70.3 12 12 Foreign : 2.3 13.7 -36.8 42.8 7 17 Exports : World : 5.9 6.2 -10.0 15.5 15 9 U.S. : 15.7 8.2 -22.8 15.3 9 15 Foreign : 13.1 6.8 -20.8 14.2 14 10 Domestic use : World : 1.7 14.5 -23.4 32.4 9 15 U.S. : 4.5 8.1 -16.6 33.0 16 8 Foreign : 1.7 10.6 -16.2 32.8 10 14 Ending stocks : World : 17.3 23.1 -71.4 48.1 14 10 U.S. : 38.6 18.7 -57.6 43.8 11 13 Foreign : 15.2 11.2 -25.9 18.6 17 7 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.4 -21.8 15.2 15 9 U.S. : 5.9 0.3 -1.0 0.5 15 9 Foreign : 2.2 7.5 -22.0 15.3 15 9 Exports : World : 8.3 1.6 -7.5 1.1 17 7 U.S. : 9.3 0.3 -1.0 0.7 14 7 Foreign : 8.9 1.5 -7.1 0.9 17 7 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.7 -19.4 5.0 19 5 U.S. : 7.5 0.2 -0.5 0.6 9 14 Foreign : 1.7 5.8 -20.0 5.2 20 4 Ending stocks : World : 11.4 4.6 -15.6 9.0 16 8 U.S. : 29.9 0.3 -0.8 0.9 12 10 Foreign : 12.1 4.6 -16.4 9.1 16 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-422-34 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.7 4.5 -11.3 12.0 11 13 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 13.1 2.6 -6.7 6.4 13 10 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 5.8 2.3 -7.5 4.2 16 8 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 47.7 3.1 -5.0 8.4 7 17 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.9 4.3 -16.7 11.4 15 9 U.S. : 9.9 1.6 -5.5 3.1 11 13 Foreign : 5.1 3.7 -12.2 10.5 14 10 Exports : World : 5.8 1.5 -4.2 2.7 12 12 U.S. : 19.9 1.1 -2.4 3.0 16 8 Foreign : 6.4 1.2 -3.5 1.9 11 13 Mill use : World : 2.8 2.4 -8.0 5.0 11 13 U.S. : 8.4 0.7 -1.4 1.3 13 11 Foreign : 2.9 2.3 -7.5 3.9 12 12 Ending stocks : World : 15.9 5.7 -13.8 15.4 16 8 U.S. : 35.2 1.6 -3.4 3.7 11 13 Foreign : 15.1 4.8 -13.1 12.7 16 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 24 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-422-35 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 10.6 736 -1382 2379 10 14 Exports : 16.9 301 -850 583 10 14 Domestic use : 5.0 310 -558 1095 17 7 Ending stocks : 46.0 659 -2091 1459 11 13 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.3 101 -228 171 10 13 Exports : 18.6 43 -105 97 11 13 Domestic use : 15.7 62 -162 100 12 12 Ending stocks : 52.7 69 -238 191 9 15 : BARLEY : Production : 10.0 36 -73 206 8 16 Exports : 35.0 18 -92 53 13 10 Domestic use : 10.5 37 -72 95 13 11 Ending stocks : 16.4 27 -60 78 11 13 : OATS : Production : 16.4 41 -77 231 6 18 Exports : 75.4 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 7.9 27 -39 160 8 16 Ending stocks : 16.7 19 -62 77 6 15 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.9 1482 -3696 4162 15 9 Exports : 17.8 1109 -2750 2364 12 11 Domestic use : 3.4 770 -1800 1559 14 10 Ending stocks : 32.9 78 -234 388 9 14 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.7 670 -1973 1443 15 9 Exports : 27.8 453 -1700 925 12 12 Domestic use : 3.0 398 -985 608 17 7 Ending stocks : 34.4 495 -998 1188 13 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.8 451 -538 1319 16 7 Pork : 1.9 313 -779 826 17 6 Broilers : 1.1 242 -497 659 14 9 Turkeys : 1.6 69 -234 173 11 12 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.9 57 -83 125 18 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.9 1.3 -4.5 5.2 11 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 33 and 34 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 24 for crops and 23 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2004 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----- End of File -----