WASDE-395 February 11, 2003 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are up 27 million bushels from last month due to lower seed use and exports. Projected exports are 25 million bushels below last month because of reduced global imports and lower-than-expected U.S. sales and shipments to date. The projected price range is up 5 cents on the low end but down 15 cents on the high end, to $3.55 to $3.65 per bushel. Global 2002/03 wheat supply and use projections are little changed from last month. Smaller production in China, Argentina, Ukraine, Kazakstan, and several other countries is largely offset by increases for Russia and Uzbekistan. Although projected imports are up 0.5 million tons for the EU, global imports are reduced. Imports are down from last month in several countries due to a slower pace of purchases to date than expected. Projected exports are increased for Russia, but reduced for Argentina, Ukraine, and the United States. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are up 5 million bushels from last month as higher use for the production of ethanol largely offsets a 25-million-bushel reduction in exports. The projected price range is tightened 5 cents on each end to $2.20 to $2.50 per bushel. Global 2002/03 coarse grain supply and use projections are up slightly from last month. Larger corn crops in Argentina, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine account for most of the rise in global coarse grain production. Global corn imports are up slightly from last month, largely due to higher expected purchases by South Korea. The bigger corn crops in Argentina and Ukraine are expected to lead to larger exports, resulting in reduced exports by the United States. The larger EU corn crop and revised EU beginning stocks of corn account for much of the gain in projected 2002/03 global coarse grain stocks. RICE: Only slight changes are made to U.S. 2002/03 supply and use. U.S. imports for 2002/03 are raised 0.5 million cwt from last month to 12.5 million cwt, based on a higher-than-expected import pace through November. Domestic use for 2002/03 is lowered slightly to 124.9 million cwt based on expected lower seed use. Ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 32.5 million cwt, up slightly from last month, but 17 percent below 2001/02. The projected season-average price range for 2002/03 is raised 10 cents on the low end to $3.75 to $3.95 per cwt compared to $4.25 per cwt for 2001/02. Global production and ending stocks for 2002/03 are raised from last month, while consumption and trade are nearly unchanged. World 2002/03 rice production is projected at 381.7 million tons, up 1.2 million tons from last month, but nearly 17 million tons (4 percent) below 2001/02, and the smallest crop since 1996/97. This month's increase in production is due primarily to larger crops projected for Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 107.5 million tons, 2.4 million tons (2 percent) above last month, 26.5 million tons (20 percent) below 2001/02, and the smallest stocks since 1987/88. This month's increase in stocks is due primarily to larger stocks projected for Indonesia, Iran, Thailand, and Vietnam. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2002/03 are reduced 25 million bushels this month to 165 million bushels, the lowest level since 1996/97. Soybean exports are raised 10 million bushels to 940 million bushels reflecting the strong pace of exports to date. Residual use is increased 15 million bushels this month due to an unusually large difference between U.S. Census Bureau export data and USDA export inspections reported through November. Soybean oil exports are projected at 2.2 billion pounds, off 100 million pounds from last month based on increased competition expected for the remainder of the marketing year. Domestic soybean oil use is also reduced this month. Soybean oil ending stocks are raised 250 million pounds to 1.7 billion pounds. The projected price range for soybeans is $5.10 to $5.70 per bushel compared with $5.10 to $5.80 per bushel last month. The soybean oil price range is unchanged at 20.5 to 23.0 cents per pound. Soybean meal prices are projected at $160 to $175 per short ton, down $5 on the top of the range from last month. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at a record 326.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for all of the change. Soybean production is increased 2 million tons for Brazil to a record 51 million tons as yield prospects have benefited from almost ideal weather. Global sunflowerseed production is raised 0.4 million tons this month as increases in Russia and Ukraine are only partially offset by a reduction for Argentina. Other changes this month include increased cottonseed production for China. Soybean imports by China are projected to reach a record 15 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2002/03 is increased 85,000 tons, raw value, from last month, due to better-than- expected sugar extraction from 2002-crop sugarbeets. Cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased 20,000 tons because of higher expected production in September from the 2003/04 harvest. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is 14.6 percent, compared with 13.5 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Projected 2003 total meat production is raised from last month as higher beef and pork production more than offset lower forecast broiler production. Although the January 1 cattle inventory indicated producers intend to have more heifers enter the beef breeding herd, tight stocks of nondairy-quality hay may cause beef cow slaughter to exceed previous expectations. This, coupled with a continued high level of dairy cow replacements, raises beef production for 2003. Forecast pork production is raised as first-quarter hog slaughter has been running higher than expected. Broiler production forecasts are lowered as weekly eggs set and chicks placed data are below a year earlier. Choice steer prices in 2003 are raised slightly as first-quarter fed cattle marketings are expected to be lower than previously thought. Hog prices are lowered slightly as supplies of pork in the first quarter have been greater than expected. Broiler price forecasts for the first half are raised as supplies of broiler meat are forecast smaller than last month. Meat trade forecasts are little changed from last month. Details of the timing for the allocation of Russia's poultry quota remain unclear, but the U.S. share of the quota is expected to be sufficient to leave the broiler export forecast unchanged from last month. However, the turkey export forecast is reduced. Per capita consumption of meat and eggs reflect revisions to population made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Milk production forecasts for 2002/03 are lowered slightly from last month. Growth in milk per cow continues to lag historical trends and weak milk prices in 2003 are expected to provide little incentive to increase output per cow. Large supplies of dairy products continue to overhang the market. As product prices remain weak, Class prices are forecast to remain below last year. The Class III price forecast is lowered to $9.70 -$10.20 per cwt and the Class IV price is forecast at $9.90-$10.60. The 2002/03 all milk price is forecast at $11.20 to $11.70, the lowest level since the late 1970's. COTTON: This month's 2002/03 U.S. projections include higher mill use and lower ending stocks. Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales to 7.6 million bales, based on increases in the reported rates for November and December. Exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are reduced to 6.2 million bales. World projections for 2002/03 include slightly higher production and consumption, leaving ending stocks virtually unchanged. Production is raised for China as multiple sources there indicate higher yields than previously anticipated; this increase is partially offset by reductions for Australia and India. Consumption is raised mainly in Pakistan and the United States. World trade is adjusted down marginally. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: RODNEY J. BROWN ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on March 11, 2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Mar. 11, Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. USDA Releases New Baseline Agricultural Projections to 1012 USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2012 is available now in electronic form on the Office of the Chief Economist website, http://www.usda.gov/oce. The full report will be available in printed form February 20 at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Copies can be ordered now from the National Technical Information Service at http://www.ntis.gov or 1-800-999-6779. Request document WAOB-2003-1. Background. The new projections cover agricultural crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators such as farm income and food prices through 2012. The baseline is not a USDA forecast about the future, but is instead a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy, the weather, the economy and international developments. Provisions of the 2002 Farm Bill are incorporated into the baseline and are assumed to remain in effect throughout the projection period. Get the Latest News from USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003, February 20-21 Sign Up Now To Receive Speeches by E-mail. Delivery of speech texts will begin about March 3. To subscribe, send an e-mail message to usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu For the message type only: subscribe ag-forum If possible leave subject line blank and do not attach a signature. Video Webcast. USDA will webcast video of the opening-day plenary sessions and a farm organization roundtable. Plenary sessions will include the 2003 agricultural and policy outlook, a keynote address by Secretary of Agriculture Ann M. Veneman, and a panel discussion on competing in the 21st century. Webcast sessions will be available starting Friday, February 21 at www.usda.gov/oce. Download Forum Speeches. Speeches and PowerPoint presentations presented at the Forum will be available for downloading starting on March 3 at www.usda.gov/oce. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. Mail subscriptions cost $50.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. This report is also available from the Government Printing Office. Call 202-783-3238 or write Superintendent of Documents, GPO, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO subscription inquires, call 202-512-1806. WASDE-395-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,841.39 2,403.83 232.66 1,862.82 541.01 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,866.40 2,407.41 236.89 1,895.62 511.79 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 1,807.73 2,316.63 228.52 1,890.95 425.68 February : 1,809.93 2,321.72 228.47 1,892.43 429.29 Wheat : 2000/01 : 583.66 790.70 102.82 585.73 204.97 2001/02 (Est.) : 579.00 783.97 108.09 583.89 200.08 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 567.51 767.30 102.92 595.75 171.55 February : 566.64 766.72 102.24 595.20 171.52 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 859.82 1,069.75 105.73 880.42 189.32 2001/02 (Est.) : 888.96 1,078.28 101.86 900.62 177.66 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 859.95 1,036.21 98.69 887.18 149.03 February : 861.59 1,039.25 99.42 889.01 150.24 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.91 543.38 24.12 396.67 146.72 2001/02 (Est.) : 398.44 545.16 26.94 411.11 134.05 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 380.27 513.12 26.92 408.02 105.10 February : 381.69 515.74 26.81 408.21 107.53 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.86 405.20 83.82 253.96 67.42 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 295.64 368.15 81.01 248.32 38.82 February : 295.64 368.16 79.69 248.77 39.70 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 43.99 67.18 25.17 30.65 11.36 February : 43.99 67.18 24.49 30.59 12.10 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.36 45.05 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 245.04 292.76 52.55 213.76 26.45 February : 245.04 292.76 51.91 214.27 26.58 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.74 8.04 2.94 3.88 1.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 6.60 8.20 3.29 3.92 1.00 February : 6.60 8.22 3.29 3.92 1.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-395-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,501.56 1,982.92 144.55 1,607.45 463.58 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,544.54 2,002.21 153.07 1,641.66 444.37 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 1,512.09 1,948.49 147.52 1,642.63 386.86 February : 1,514.29 1,953.55 148.77 1,643.65 389.59 Wheat : 2000/01 : 522.90 701.65 73.92 549.43 181.13 2001/02 (Est.) : 525.73 703.93 81.93 551.17 178.93 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 523.52 700.12 77.74 565.10 160.19 February : 522.65 699.54 77.74 564.61 159.42 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 586.69 745.04 49.11 665.03 136.62 2001/02 (Est.) : 627.10 761.16 47.15 683.26 132.61 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 614.91 743.45 46.14 673.42 122.58 February : 616.55 746.49 47.51 674.74 123.66 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 391.97 536.23 21.53 392.99 145.83 2001/02 (Est.) : 391.71 537.12 24.00 407.23 132.83 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 373.67 504.91 23.63 404.10 104.10 February : 375.09 507.52 23.52 404.30 106.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.68 134.03 26.58 92.19 42.45 2001/02 (Est.) : 98.35 140.80 29.02 94.51 46.62 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 87.40 134.03 29.57 96.45 37.92 February : 87.64 134.26 29.34 96.77 37.85 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.43 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 17.15 24.60 10.80 7.50 6.30 February : 17.15 24.60 10.80 7.60 6.20 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.49 112.91 19.84 83.33 36.45 2001/02 (Est.) : 78.05 114.48 18.02 86.79 39.19 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 70.26 109.43 18.77 88.95 31.62 February : 70.50 109.66 18.54 89.17 31.65 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-395-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.43 348.28 71.88 254.58 35.50 2001/02 (Est.) : 323.53 359.03 68.19 265.13 36.66 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 323.95 360.50 72.66 268.65 33.76 February : 326.46 363.11 73.33 270.66 33.78 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 175.38 181.38 57.01 175.87 5.21 2001/02 (Est.) : 183.10 188.31 61.08 183.38 4.99 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 186.34 191.92 61.58 185.79 5.76 February : 187.90 192.89 62.83 187.41 5.15 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 89.46 97.64 35.60 88.60 8.41 2001/02 (Est.) : 91.51 99.92 37.37 91.44 7.59 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 92.35 99.98 38.20 92.95 6.52 February : 92.74 100.33 38.72 93.08 6.77 : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 83.46 90.72 26.10 48.93 6.11 February : 83.46 90.74 26.36 48.89 5.43 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.26 32.02 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 38.90 40.35 7.05 33.01 0.29 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 37.64 38.93 5.65 33.00 0.28 February : 37.49 38.77 5.65 32.85 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.51 12.40 1.05 9.70 1.66 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.95 1.55 10.03 1.36 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 9.47 12.22 1.30 10.05 0.88 February : 9.45 12.38 1.23 10.10 1.06 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.54 253.59 43.90 205.51 27.68 2001/02 (Est.) : 233.70 260.73 38.25 214.51 29.78 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 240.49 269.79 46.57 219.72 27.66 February : 243.00 272.38 46.97 221.78 28.35 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 137.17 141.70 49.75 143.84 4.81 2001/02 (Est.) : 144.20 147.96 54.02 150.38 4.70 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 148.70 152.99 55.93 152.79 5.48 February : 150.42 154.12 57.18 154.56 4.87 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 79.95 85.23 34.55 78.90 6.75 2001/02 (Est.) : 81.86 86.97 35.83 81.41 6.23 2002/03 (Proj.) : January : 82.88 87.77 36.91 82.90 5.64 February : 83.29 87.96 37.49 82.98 5.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-395-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4 Harvested : 53.1 48.6 45.8 45.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 35.3 35.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 777 777 Production : 2,232 1,957 1,616 1,616 Imports : 90 108 75 75 Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,469 2,469 Food : 950 926 940 940 Seed : 80 84 86 84 Feed and residual : 304 192 100 100 Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,126 1,124 Exports : 1,062 961 925 900 Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,051 2,024 Ending stocks : 876 777 418 445 CCC inventory : 97 99 75 75 Free stocks : 779 678 343 370 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.50- 3.80 3.55- 3.65 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941 Domestic use : 467 303 257 95 80 1,202 Exports : 349 216 199 147 50 961 Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164 Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777 : 2002/03 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 973 612 417 319 147 2,469 Domestic use : 446 247 246 100 85 1,124 Exports : 330 275 110 150 35 900 Use, total : 776 522 356 250 120 2,024 Ending stocks, total : February : 197 90 61 69 27 445 January : 173 90 60 68 27 418 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-395-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.7 98.7 Harvested : 87.7 83.6 82.8 82.8 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 2.96 2.96 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.0 45.0 Production : 272.9 261.7 244.9 244.9 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 292.4 292.4 Feed and residual : 159.8 158.9 150.5 150.5 Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 63.0 63.5 Domestic, total : 215.1 217.0 213.5 214.0 Exports : 56.6 54.7 52.5 51.9 Use, total : 271.7 271.7 266.0 265.9 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.0 26.4 26.6 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 26.3 26.4 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 79.1 79.1 Harvested : 72.4 68.8 69.3 69.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 130.0 130.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,596 Production : 9,915 9,507 9,008 9,008 Imports : 7 10 15 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,619 10,619 Feed and residual : 5,842 5,877 5,600 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,245 2,265 Domestic, total : 7,799 7,931 7,845 7,865 Exports : 1,941 1,889 1,850 1,825 Use, total : 9,740 9,820 9,695 9,690 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,596 924 929 CCC inventory : 8 5 5 5 Free stocks : 1,891 1,591 919 924 Outstanding loans : 253 213 200 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.15- 2.55 2.20- 2.50 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-395-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.3 7.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 50.7 50.7 Beginning stocks : 65 42 61 61 Production : 471 515 370 370 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 431 431 Feed and residual : 222 210 160 160 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45 Total domestic : 258 255 205 205 Exports : 237 241 200 200 Use, total : 494 495 405 405 Ending stocks, total : 42 61 26 26 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.94 2.20- 2.60 2.25- 2.55 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 54.9 54.9 Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93 Production : 319 249 227 227 Imports : 29 24 20 20 Supply, total : 459 380 340 340 Feed and residual : 123 88 80 80 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 295 260 252 252 Exports : 58 27 20 20 Use, total : 353 287 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 106 93 68 68 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.55- 2.75 2.65- 2.75 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 56.8 56.8 Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63 Production : 150 117 119 119 Imports : 106 96 100 100 Supply, total : 332 286 282 282 Feed and residual : 189 148 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72 Total domestic : 257 220 222 222 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 259 223 224 224 Ending stocks, total : 73 63 58 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.70- 1.80 1.70- 1.80 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-395-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.33 3.24 3.24 Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,496 6,578 6,578 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0 Production : 190.9 215.3 211.0 211.0 Imports : 10.8 13.2 12.0 12.5 Supply, total : 229.2 256.9 261.9 262.4 Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 123.9 125.0 124.9 Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 105.0 105.0 Rough : 22.8 31.7 39.0 39.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 66.0 66.0 Use, total : 200.7 218.0 230.0 229.9 Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 32.0 32.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.25 3.65- 3.95 3.75- 3.95 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 2.51 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,213 6,260 6,260 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8 Production : 128.8 167.6 157.2 157.2 Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 188.3 193.5 193.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 88.0 90.7 90.6 Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 82.0 82.0 Use, total : 141.5 161.6 172.7 172.6 Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 20.9 20.9 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 0.70 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 7,729 7,729 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7 Production : 62.1 47.7 53.7 53.7 Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 66.9 67.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 34.3 34.3 Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 23.0 23.0 Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3 Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 9.6 10.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-395-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.8 73.8 Harvested : 72.4 73.0 72.2 72.2 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 37.8 37.8 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 208 208 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,730 2,730 Imports : 4 2 2 2 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,940 2,940 Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,655 1,655 Exports : 996 1,063 930 940 Seed : 91 89 87 87 Residual : 78 82 78 93 3/ Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,750 2,775 Ending stocks : 248 208 190 165 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.38 5.10- 5.80 5.10 - 5.70 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,360 2,360 Production : 18,420 18,898 18,785 18,785 Imports : 73 46 65 65 Supply, total : 20,488 21,821 21,210 21,210 Domestic : 16,210 16,942 17,450 17,300 Exports : 1,401 2,520 2,300 2,200 Use, total : 17,611 19,461 19,750 19,500 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,460 1,710 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.46 20.50- 20.50- : 23.00 23.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 240 240 Production : 39,385 40,292 39,120 38,970 Imports : 51 143 240 240 Supply, total : 39,729 40,818 39,600 39,450 Domestic : 31,643 33,077 33,350 33,200 Exports : 7,703 7,502 6,000 6,000 Use, total : 39,346 40,578 39,350 39,200 Ending stocks : 383 240 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 167.73 160.00- 160.00- : 180.00 175.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Reflects an unusually large difference between U.S. Census Bureau trade data and grain export inspections data reported by USDA. WASDE-395-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===================== : : Estimate : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,180 1,276 1,276 Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,906 8,155 8,260 Beet sugar : 4,680 3,914 4,215 4,300 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,992 3,940 3,960 Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,526 1,605 1,605 TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,149 1,245 1,245 Other program 6/ : 238 296 300 300 Non-program 7/ : 76 81 60 60 Total supply : 12,580 11,612 11,036 11,141 : Exports 2/8/ : 141 108 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,132 10,084 9,800 9,800 Domestic food use : 10,000 9,891 9,600 9,600 Other 9/ : 132 193 200 200 Miscellaneous 10/ : 127 144 -200 -200 Use, total : 10,400 10,336 9,725 9,725 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,276 1,311 1,416 Private : 1,396 1,064 NA NA Other 11/ : 784 212 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.0 12.3 13.5 14.6 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on February Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,150); HI 251 (275); LA 1,587 (1,360); TX 174 (175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, mostly residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, uncommitted CCC-owned sugar. WASDE-395-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 13.96 13.96 Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.41 12.41 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 663 663 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.43 7.43 Production : 17.19 20.30 17.14 17.14 Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 24.60 24.60 Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.50 7.60 Exports : 6.74 11.00 10.80 10.80 Use, total : 15.60 18.72 18.30 18.40 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.18 0.00 0.00 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.43 6.30 6.20 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 29.8 40.5 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-December 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 32.9 percent. WASDE-395-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 207.04 583.66 101.53 106.44 585.73 102.82 204.97 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.44 8.28 36.30 28.90 23.85 Total foreign : 181.19 522.90 99.09 98.16 549.43 73.92 181.13 Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 171.25 3.44 54.00 110.67 59.74 28.85 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 3.40 6.30 15.93 5.22 Canada : 7.70 26.52 0.20 3.70 7.44 17.32 9.66 EU-15 : 12.65 104.73 3.16 46.82 91.93 15.22 13.38 Major importers 5/ : 121.32 144.40 50.28 13.40 204.80 2.59 108.61 Brazil : 1.30 1.66 7.20 0.20 9.51 0.00 0.65 China : 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.88 N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.32 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.87 2.73 9.99 28.88 2.34 4.84 India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.94 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 204.97 579.00 108.49 108.81 583.89 108.09 200.08 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.24 32.72 26.16 21.15 Total foreign : 181.13 525.73 105.57 103.57 551.16 81.92 178.93 Major exporters 4/ : 28.85 151.27 10.25 54.73 111.28 54.25 24.84 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.88 10.07 1.14 Australia : 5.22 24.00 0.08 3.45 6.48 16.41 6.41 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.70 7.81 16.27 6.49 EU-15 : 13.38 91.20 9.82 47.50 92.11 11.49 10.80 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.31 48.82 12.45 203.21 4.12 91.41 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 6.78 0.40 9.78 0.00 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.41 0.31 29.17 0.25 5.79 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.85 1.38 8.68 0.35 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.71 1.74 10.94 30.82 4.14 6.32 India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.21 3.09 26.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.54 19.66 68.60 13.80 17.85 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.18 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.74 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-395-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 199.80 567.51 104.72 117.27 595.75 102.92 171.56 February : 200.08 566.64 104.02 117.07 595.20 102.24 171.52 United States : January : 21.15 43.99 2.04 2.72 30.64 25.17 11.36 February : 21.15 43.99 2.04 2.72 30.59 24.49 12.10 Total foreign : January : 178.64 523.52 102.68 114.54 565.10 77.74 160.19 February : 178.93 522.65 101.98 114.34 564.61 77.74 159.42 Major exporters 4/ : January : 24.63 142.40 9.96 62.53 119.35 38.30 19.35 February : 24.84 141.52 10.46 62.53 119.52 38.10 19.20 Argentina Jan : 0.55 13.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 8.30 0.66 Feb : 1.14 12.50 0.01 0.05 4.85 8.10 0.70 Australia Jan : 6.41 10.00 0.15 4.20 7.20 7.00 2.36 Feb : 6.41 10.00 0.15 4.20 7.20 7.00 2.36 Canada Jan : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14 Feb : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14 EU-15 Jan : 11.18 103.70 9.50 53.28 98.20 15.00 11.18 Feb : 10.80 103.32 10.00 53.28 98.12 15.00 11.00 Major importers 5/ : January : 91.41 140.40 47.60 10.85 201.38 3.98 74.04 February : 91.41 139.40 46.80 10.85 200.38 3.98 73.24 Brazil Jan : 0.90 2.90 7.20 0.35 10.10 0.00 0.90 Feb : 0.90 2.90 7.20 0.35 10.10 0.00 0.90 China Jan : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97 Feb : 76.59 91.00 0.70 7.00 105.61 1.50 61.17 N. Africa 6/ Jan : 5.79 11.10 17.20 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.82 Feb : 5.79 11.10 17.20 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.82 Pakistan Jan : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 Feb : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 SE Asia 7/ Jan : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38 Feb : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38 Selected other : East. Europe Jan : 6.29 30.79 2.24 10.44 30.56 3.35 5.41 Feb : 6.32 30.79 2.04 10.24 30.38 3.55 5.22 India Jan : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 65.05 5.00 28.00 Feb : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 65.05 5.00 28.00 FSU-12 8/ Jan : 17.80 95.75 3.06 24.66 73.88 23.66 19.07 Feb : 17.85 96.58 2.86 24.66 74.26 23.66 19.37 Russia Jan : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 40.50 9.50 6.40 Feb : 6.40 50.60 0.30 17.50 40.60 10.00 6.70 Kazakstan Jan : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.66 5.00 7.55 Feb : 5.20 12.70 0.02 1.80 5.66 5.00 7.25 Ukraine Jan : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 9.00 2.19 Feb : 3.74 20.55 0.10 3.00 13.60 8.50 2.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-395-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.93 859.82 102.71 587.12 880.42 105.73 189.32 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70 Total foreign : 161.07 586.69 99.99 427.30 665.04 49.11 136.62 Major exporters 4/ : 9.87 62.29 3.41 36.13 48.51 19.69 7.36 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 5.89 4.36 1.31 Canada : 5.67 24.03 2.80 20.19 24.51 3.66 4.33 Major importers 5/ : 31.79 155.73 69.39 161.63 217.60 10.68 28.62 EU-15 : 19.52 107.38 3.03 78.12 102.73 10.05 17.14 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.09 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.61 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.30 8.89 6.53 9.00 0.00 1.23 Selected other : China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 93.38 128.19 7.30 83.60 East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.91 30.66 40.99 1.25 2.43 FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.73 2.46 5.94 Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49 Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.87 1.45 1.94 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 189.32 888.96 100.32 600.04 900.62 101.86 177.66 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 159.00 217.36 54.71 45.05 Total foreign : 136.62 627.10 97.77 441.03 683.26 47.15 132.61 Major exporters 4/ : 7.36 61.62 5.22 36.39 48.56 18.59 7.05 Argentina : 1.22 18.44 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.21 1.22 Australia : 1.31 11.08 0.05 5.06 6.47 4.61 1.35 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.12 20.73 25.06 2.52 3.46 Major importers 5/ : 28.62 159.52 67.74 162.10 218.26 5.43 32.20 EU-15 : 17.14 106.67 4.25 77.75 102.21 4.99 20.86 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.94 15.52 20.14 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.06 27.17 8.89 20.13 36.12 0.05 2.95 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.27 3.83 14.32 19.00 0.39 1.28 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.83 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 83.60 121.89 1.97 95.10 129.78 8.63 69.06 East. Europe : 2.43 52.09 1.67 37.21 47.47 3.99 4.73 FSU-12 6/ : 5.94 62.35 1.03 33.87 51.40 6.68 11.23 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.94 17.03 0.13 9.29 12.96 3.50 2.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-395-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 176.26 859.95 98.44 586.65 887.18 98.69 149.03 February : 177.66 861.59 99.03 587.58 889.01 99.42 150.24 United States : January : 45.05 245.04 2.67 150.56 213.76 52.55 26.45 February : 45.05 245.04 2.67 150.56 214.27 51.91 26.58 Total foreign : January : 131.21 614.91 95.78 436.08 673.42 46.14 122.58 February : 132.61 616.55 96.36 437.01 674.74 47.50 123.66 Major exporters 4/ : January : 7.22 50.80 5.27 32.41 44.63 13.10 5.55 February : 7.05 52.04 5.44 32.92 45.14 14.06 5.34 Argentina Jan : 1.32 17.24 0.03 6.07 8.18 9.21 1.20 Feb : 1.22 18.49 0.03 6.07 8.18 10.41 1.15 Australia Jan : 1.44 5.56 0.10 3.94 5.26 1.10 0.74 Feb : 1.35 5.56 0.15 3.99 5.30 1.10 0.65 Canada Jan : 3.46 19.59 4.23 17.98 22.43 1.78 3.07 Feb : 3.46 19.59 4.36 18.43 22.90 1.52 2.99 Major importers 5/ : January : 30.94 155.76 67.07 157.46 214.83 6.60 32.33 February : 32.20 156.54 67.74 158.36 215.73 7.20 33.55 EU-15 Jan : 19.59 105.14 3.22 74.86 100.19 6.38 21.37 Feb : 20.86 106.07 3.22 75.15 100.49 6.99 22.67 Japan Jan : 2.34 0.23 18.34 14.21 18.84 0.00 2.08 Feb : 2.34 0.23 18.54 14.41 19.04 0.00 2.08 Mexico Jan : 2.98 25.37 10.65 20.17 36.15 0.02 2.83 Feb : 2.95 25.37 10.62 20.17 36.15 0.02 2.78 Southeast Asia Jan : 1.29 14.72 3.76 13.75 18.43 0.20 1.13 Feb : 1.28 14.57 3.76 13.65 18.34 0.20 1.08 South Korea Jan : 1.16 0.36 8.80 6.51 9.07 0.00 1.26 Feb : 1.16 0.36 9.30 7.01 9.57 0.00 1.26 Selected other : China Jan : 69.06 132.90 2.10 97.06 131.85 11.02 61.19 Feb : 69.06 132.90 2.10 97.06 131.85 11.02 61.19 East. Europe Jan : 4.50 49.28 1.54 36.85 47.14 3.38 4.80 Feb : 4.73 49.36 1.60 36.85 47.13 3.44 5.12 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 11.14 60.83 1.03 35.57 52.74 8.72 11.55 Feb : 11.23 60.53 0.73 35.27 52.59 8.52 11.38 Russia Jan : 6.75 33.90 0.80 19.20 30.60 3.60 7.25 Feb : 6.74 33.30 0.50 18.70 30.10 3.60 6.84 Ukraine Jan : 2.54 17.05 0.06 9.05 12.52 4.55 2.57 Feb : 2.64 17.10 0.06 9.20 12.82 4.35 2.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-395-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 171.04 587.71 75.62 426.15 604.84 77.32 153.91 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.40 198.10 49.31 48.24 Total foreign : 127.42 335.85 75.45 277.76 406.74 28.01 105.67 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 22.88 0.42 8.05 13.75 10.96 1.13 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.04 7.48 0.40 4.15 8.15 1.28 0.49 Major importers 5/ : 11.64 76.68 48.30 85.94 123.86 0.88 11.87 EU-15 : 3.63 37.82 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.74 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.60 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.06 8.74 6.46 8.62 0.00 1.23 Selected other : Brazil : 0.55 41.54 0.32 30.50 34.50 6.26 1.65 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.75 7.92 10.12 0.12 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 91.00 118.00 7.28 83.13 East. Europe : 2.93 18.12 1.70 16.68 20.38 0.87 1.50 FSU-12 6/ : 1.03 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.01 0.47 1.41 Russia : 0.29 1.55 0.15 1.50 1.90 0.00 0.09 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 153.91 598.30 73.85 438.14 619.25 74.45 132.96 United States : 48.24 241.48 0.26 149.27 201.45 47.98 40.55 Total foreign : 105.67 356.82 73.60 288.86 417.80 26.47 92.41 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 23.50 0.82 7.55 13.05 10.80 1.59 Argentina : 0.64 14.40 0.02 3.35 4.85 9.60 0.60 South Africa : 0.49 9.10 0.80 4.20 8.20 1.20 0.99 Major importers 5/ : 11.87 81.43 45.32 87.71 125.83 0.51 12.28 EU-15 : 3.74 39.68 2.93 32.60 41.60 0.07 4.68 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.17 20.40 4.03 9.30 24.50 0.05 2.04 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.07 3.83 14.12 18.80 0.39 1.28 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.61 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.16 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.54 0.43 30.50 34.50 1.90 1.21 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.66 11.96 0.20 1.06 China : 83.13 114.09 0.05 93.00 120.00 8.61 68.65 East. Europe : 1.50 27.74 1.12 21.40 24.88 3.14 2.35 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.81 0.68 5.70 7.05 0.41 1.44 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-395-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 131.57 590.52 73.59 432.78 617.30 73.35 104.79 February : 132.96 592.53 74.00 433.31 618.91 74.16 106.58 United States : January : 40.55 228.80 0.38 142.25 199.27 46.99 23.47 February : 40.55 228.80 0.38 142.25 199.78 46.36 23.60 Total foreign : January : 91.02 361.72 73.21 290.53 418.03 26.36 81.32 February : 92.41 363.73 73.62 291.06 419.13 27.80 82.98 Major exporters 4/ : January : 1.69 21.50 0.77 7.60 13.10 9.60 1.26 February : 1.59 22.50 0.77 7.60 13.10 10.60 1.16 Argentina Jan : 0.70 13.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 8.60 0.72 Feb : 0.60 14.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 9.60 0.62 South Africa Jan : 0.99 8.00 0.75 4.20 8.20 1.00 0.54 Feb : 0.99 8.00 0.75 4.20 8.20 1.00 0.54 Major importers 5/ : January : 11.08 78.73 46.46 87.01 125.34 0.32 10.61 February : 12.28 79.12 46.96 87.61 125.95 0.42 12.00 EU-15 Jan : 3.49 38.90 2.50 32.40 41.40 0.10 3.39 Feb : 4.68 39.44 2.50 32.60 41.60 0.20 4.82 Japan Jan : 1.39 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.19 Feb : 1.39 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.19 Mexico Jan : 2.04 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 2.03 Feb : 2.04 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 2.03 Southeast Asia Jan : 1.29 14.52 3.76 13.56 18.24 0.20 1.13 Feb : 1.28 14.37 3.76 13.46 18.14 0.20 1.08 South Korea Jan : 1.16 0.06 8.50 6.30 8.46 0.00 1.26 Feb : 1.16 0.06 9.00 6.80 8.96 0.00 1.26 Selected other : Brazil Jan : 1.27 36.00 0.40 31.20 35.20 1.50 0.97 Feb : 1.21 36.00 0.40 31.20 35.20 1.50 0.91 Canada Jan : 1.06 9.06 4.00 10.26 12.56 0.40 1.16 Feb : 1.06 9.06 4.00 10.22 12.52 0.40 1.20 China Jan : 68.65 125.00 0.10 95.00 122.00 11.00 60.75 Feb : 68.65 125.00 0.10 95.00 122.00 11.00 60.75 East. Europe Jan : 2.11 26.29 0.84 21.10 24.62 2.55 2.07 Feb : 2.35 26.37 0.89 21.10 24.62 2.60 2.39 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 1.41 7.64 0.73 6.52 7.86 0.36 1.56 Feb : 1.44 8.24 0.43 6.52 7.86 0.66 1.58 Russia Jan : 0.09 1.10 0.60 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.09 Feb : 0.08 1.50 0.30 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.18 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-395-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 3/ : 145.47 397.91 21.48 396.67 24.12 146.72 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.68 2.59 0.89 Total foreign : 144.61 391.97 21.14 392.99 21.53 145.83 Major exporters 4/ : 21.41 127.10 0.04 105.10 15.16 28.29 India : 17.72 84.87 0.00 75.85 1.68 25.05 Thailand : 1.71 17.06 0.00 9.35 7.52 1.90 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.25 3.53 0.91 Major importers 5/ : 14.93 53.52 9.32 64.48 0.36 12.93 Indonesia : 6.02 32.96 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.61 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.36 1.85 94.10 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.66 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 3/ : 146.72 398.44 25.64 411.11 26.94 134.05 United States : 0.89 6.74 0.42 3.88 2.94 1.22 Total foreign : 145.83 391.71 25.22 407.23 24.00 132.83 Major exporters 4/ : 28.29 134.02 0.06 117.22 18.24 26.91 India : 25.05 91.60 0.00 87.35 6.30 23.00 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.24 2.40 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.24 1.34 Major importers 5/ : 12.93 54.37 12.07 65.68 0.42 13.27 Indonesia : 4.61 33.09 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.84 Selected other : China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Japan : 1.66 8.24 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.46 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 132.84 380.28 25.64 408.02 26.92 105.10 February : 134.05 381.69 25.63 408.21 26.81 107.53 United States : January : 1.22 6.60 0.38 3.92 3.29 1.00 February : 1.22 6.60 0.40 3.92 3.29 1.02 Total foreign : January : 131.62 373.67 25.26 404.10 23.63 104.10 February : 132.83 375.09 25.23 404.30 23.52 106.51 Major exporters 4/ : January : 26.06 119.25 0.04 112.45 17.25 15.65 February : 26.91 120.10 0.04 112.77 17.25 17.02 India Jan : 23.00 78.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Feb : 23.00 78.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Thailand Jan : 1.51 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.75 0.66 Feb : 2.40 17.20 0.00 9.92 7.75 1.93 Vietnam Jan : 1.39 20.90 0.04 17.60 4.25 0.48 Feb : 1.34 21.05 0.04 17.60 4.25 0.58 Major importers 5/ : January : 12.80 54.16 12.10 66.89 0.41 11.75 February : 13.27 54.74 12.10 66.87 0.41 12.82 Indonesia Jan : 4.90 32.83 3.25 36.79 0.00 4.19 Feb : 4.84 33.20 3.25 36.79 0.00 4.50 Selected other : China Jan : 82.30 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.35 Feb : 82.17 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.22 Japan Jan : 1.46 8.07 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.06 Feb : 1.46 8.07 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-395-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 27.76 175.10 55.13 146.84 171.86 55.50 30.63 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.62 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 19.86 100.04 55.04 102.21 122.66 28.40 23.88 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 4.91 18.12 45.25 46.04 59.52 1.91 6.85 EU-15 : 0.69 1.05 19.34 16.80 18.47 1.68 0.92 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.63 184.30 56.36 158.19 183.89 55.15 32.24 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.90 28.92 5.66 Total foreign : 23.88 105.63 56.29 111.93 132.99 26.24 26.58 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.40 46.40 49.94 23.12 21.27 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.85 22.04 6.00 10.19 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.85 18.13 44.73 49.14 62.93 2.28 4.50 EU-15 : 0.92 1.21 20.58 17.90 19.68 1.96 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.88 5.21 0.00 0.67 China : 4.91 15.41 10.38 20.31 28.12 0.30 2.29 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 32.19 190.89 60.92 165.30 191.95 61.40 30.65 February : 32.24 192.88 61.29 166.82 193.86 61.83 30.72 United States : January : 5.66 74.29 0.05 45.04 49.54 25.31 5.16 February : 5.66 74.29 0.05 45.04 49.94 25.58 4.48 Total foreign : January : 26.53 116.60 60.87 120.26 142.42 36.09 25.49 February : 26.58 118.59 61.24 121.78 143.91 36.25 26.24 Major exporters 3/ : January : 21.45 86.20 1.30 51.66 55.55 33.00 20.40 February : 21.27 88.20 1.20 52.81 56.73 33.00 20.94 Argentina Jan : 10.29 33.50 0.40 23.00 24.29 9.70 10.20 Feb : 10.19 33.50 0.30 23.40 24.69 9.30 10.00 Brazil Jan : 11.15 49.00 0.90 27.75 30.26 20.60 10.19 Feb : 11.07 51.00 0.90 28.50 31.04 21.00 10.93 Major importers 4/ : January : 4.41 18.98 49.02 51.80 66.15 1.90 4.37 February : 4.50 18.98 50.00 52.52 66.81 2.22 4.46 EU-15 Jan : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Feb : 1.08 0.95 20.60 17.90 19.74 1.92 0.97 Japan Jan : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 Feb : 0.67 0.28 5.05 3.98 5.30 0.00 0.70 China Jan : 2.29 16.40 14.50 22.45 30.55 0.28 2.37 Feb : 2.29 16.40 15.00 22.95 31.05 0.28 2.37 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-395-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.10 116.57 41.36 117.10 41.14 3.79 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.84 80.84 41.31 88.39 34.15 3.44 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.13 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.86 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.86 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.72 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.21 30.15 27.34 51.48 6.05 1.18 EU-15 : 0.78 13.35 20.16 27.69 5.94 0.66 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.79 125.26 46.69 125.92 46.01 3.80 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.01 6.80 0.22 Total foreign : 3.44 88.70 46.56 95.91 39.21 3.58 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.62 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.94 Argentina : 0.10 16.45 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.26 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 32.56 30.23 55.63 7.12 1.21 EU-15 : 0.66 14.23 22.17 30.27 6.06 0.73 China : 0.00 16.18 0.02 15.16 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 4.38 130.50 46.99 130.07 47.10 4.70 February : 3.80 131.83 48.27 131.42 48.39 4.09 United States : January : 0.22 35.49 0.22 30.26 5.44 0.23 February : 0.22 35.35 0.22 30.12 5.44 0.23 Total foreign : January : 4.16 95.01 46.77 99.81 41.66 4.47 February : 3.58 96.48 48.05 101.30 42.95 3.86 Major exporters 3/ : January : 1.37 43.42 0.20 10.36 32.96 1.66 February : 0.94 44.38 0.40 10.24 34.26 1.21 Argentina Jan : 0.26 18.10 0.00 0.25 17.76 0.35 Feb : 0.26 18.46 0.00 0.25 18.16 0.31 Brazil Jan : 1.07 21.92 0.20 8.52 13.40 1.27 Feb : 0.65 22.51 0.40 8.40 14.30 0.85 India Jan : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.60 1.80 0.05 Feb : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.60 1.80 0.05 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.33 34.21 29.55 56.76 7.05 1.28 February : 1.21 34.83 30.59 58.43 7.05 1.16 EU-15 Jan : 0.85 14.04 21.43 29.46 6.03 0.82 Feb : 0.73 14.23 22.02 30.24 6.03 0.70 China Jan : 0.00 17.88 0.05 16.93 1.00 0.00 Feb : 0.00 18.27 0.05 17.32 1.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-395-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.58 26.75 7.58 26.30 7.96 2.66 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.67 18.40 7.55 18.94 7.32 1.36 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 10.52 0.69 4.97 6.55 0.55 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.41 4.32 0.07 3.08 1.53 0.19 EU-15 : 0.21 3.01 0.62 1.78 1.81 0.25 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.69 0.06 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.66 28.80 8.93 28.57 9.31 2.51 United States : 1.30 8.57 0.02 7.68 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.36 20.23 8.91 20.88 8.17 1.44 Major exporters 3/ : 0.55 11.79 0.76 5.12 7.40 0.58 Argentina : 0.10 3.87 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.12 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.25 3.21 0.61 1.90 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.40 2.14 6.52 0.06 0.26 China : 0.28 3.52 0.37 3.86 0.06 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.23 0.28 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 2.55 30.28 9.96 30.52 10.27 1.98 February : 2.51 30.53 10.05 30.52 10.42 2.15 United States : January : 1.07 8.52 0.03 7.92 1.04 0.66 February : 1.07 8.52 0.03 7.85 1.00 0.78 Total foreign : January : 1.48 21.75 9.93 22.61 9.23 1.32 February : 1.44 22.01 10.02 22.67 9.43 1.37 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.66 12.76 0.74 5.26 8.40 0.51 February : 0.58 13.00 0.74 5.23 8.59 0.50 Argentina Jan : 0.12 4.28 0.00 0.13 4.17 0.10 Feb : 0.12 4.35 0.00 0.13 4.24 0.10 Brazil Jan : 0.25 5.30 0.15 3.25 2.30 0.15 Feb : 0.18 5.44 0.15 3.18 2.42 0.16 EU-15 Jan : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.88 1.93 0.26 Feb : 0.28 3.21 0.59 1.92 1.93 0.24 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.26 4.71 3.05 7.61 0.10 0.31 February : 0.26 4.80 3.15 7.73 0.10 0.38 China Jan : 0.25 3.89 0.80 4.54 0.10 0.30 Feb : 0.25 3.98 0.90 4.65 0.10 0.38 Pakistan Jan : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 Feb : 0.01 0.06 0.25 0.31 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-395-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 45.35 88.68 26.62 92.19 26.58 -0.56 42.45 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.74 -0.48 6.00 Total foreign : 41.44 71.49 26.61 83.32 19.84 -0.08 36.45 Major exporters 4/ : 14.37 37.11 2.34 25.86 15.77 -0.09 12.28 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.93 1.57 13.54 0.09 0.00 3.77 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.38 0.01 1.59 5.12 0.00 1.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.26 0.00 0.75 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.14 5.78 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.86 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 25.14 31.16 17.51 48.97 2.75 0.01 22.08 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.20 0.32 -0.17 2.97 Mexico : 0.49 0.39 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.54 China : 17.76 20.30 0.24 23.50 0.45 0.00 14.35 Europe : 1.80 2.49 4.70 5.61 1.72 0.07 1.59 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.17 0.13 0.00 0.88 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.40 0.06 0.09 1.75 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.45 0.02 0.05 0.41 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 42.45 98.35 29.41 94.51 29.02 0.06 46.62 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.72 11.00 0.18 7.43 Total foreign : 36.45 78.05 29.39 86.79 18.02 -0.12 39.19 Major exporters 4/ : 12.28 39.82 3.16 25.90 14.19 -0.09 15.27 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.86 4.38 0.28 0.99 3.94 -0.14 2.74 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Argentina : 0.32 0.30 0.03 0.28 0.22 0.01 0.15 Major importers : 22.08 35.10 19.11 52.18 2.54 -0.03 21.61 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.95 0.67 -0.20 2.32 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.00 0.34 0.00 12.86 Europe : 1.59 2.62 4.53 5.45 1.26 0.07 1.95 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.75 0.16 9.11 8.52 0.05 0.08 2.36 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.62 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-395-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : January : 46.63 87.40 29.85 96.45 29.57 -0.06 37.92 February : 46.62 87.64 29.70 96.77 29.34 0.00 37.85 United States : January : 7.43 17.14 0.03 7.50 10.80 0.00 6.30 February : 7.43 17.14 0.03 7.60 10.80 0.00 6.20 Total foreign : January : 39.20 70.26 29.82 88.95 18.77 -0.05 31.62 February : 39.19 70.50 29.66 89.17 18.54 0.00 31.65 Major exporters 4/ : January : 15.32 35.57 2.82 26.85 14.44 -0.03 12.46 February : 15.27 35.31 2.62 27.03 14.21 0.02 11.94 Pakistan Jan : 3.26 8.00 0.60 8.80 0.15 0.03 2.89 Feb : 3.26 8.00 0.70 9.00 0.15 0.03 2.79 India Jan : 4.49 11.20 1.80 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.84 Feb : 4.49 11.10 1.50 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.44 Central Asia 5/Jan : 1.94 6.88 3/ 1.89 5.30 0.00 1.62 Feb : 1.94 6.88 3/ 1.89 5.30 0.00 1.62 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jan : 1.48 3.87 3/ 0.21 3.89 0.00 1.25 Feb : 1.48 3.87 3/ 0.21 3.79 0.05 1.30 S. Hemis 7/ Jan : 2.79 3.12 0.35 1.10 3.62 -0.08 1.63 Feb : 2.74 2.96 0.35 1.08 3.48 -0.08 1.56 Australia Jan : 2.26 1.50 3/ 0.14 2.70 -0.10 1.02 Feb : 2.21 1.40 3/ 0.13 2.60 -0.10 0.98 Argentina Jan : 0.15 0.30 0.10 0.40 0.02 0.01 0.12 Feb : 0.15 0.30 0.10 0.40 0.02 0.01 0.12 Major importers Jan : 21.59 31.66 19.87 53.37 2.89 -0.03 16.90 Feb : 21.61 32.16 19.92 53.42 2.89 -0.03 17.42 Brazil Jan : 2.32 3.60 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.76 Feb : 2.32 3.60 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.76 Mexico Jan : 0.67 0.19 1.85 2.05 0.05 0.03 0.58 Feb : 0.67 0.19 1.90 2.10 0.05 0.03 0.58 China Jan : 12.86 21.50 2.25 27.00 0.75 0.00 8.86 Feb : 12.86 22.00 2.25 27.00 0.75 0.00 9.36 Europe Jan : 1.96 2.17 4.52 5.47 1.50 0.07 1.61 Feb : 1.95 2.17 4.52 5.47 1.50 0.07 1.61 Turkey Jan : 1.45 4.10 2.10 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.12 Feb : 1.45 4.10 2.10 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.12 Sel. Asia 8/ Jan : 2.35 0.10 8.10 8.45 0.07 0.08 1.96 Feb : 2.36 0.10 8.10 8.45 0.07 0.08 1.98 Indonesia Jan : 0.45 0.06 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.39 Feb : 0.45 0.06 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.39 S. Korea Jan : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 Feb : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-395-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7155 165.3 : 2002 : I : 6376 4779 11259 7855 1385 9372 20631 1771 42.3 II : 6833 4800 11733 8249 1448 9835 21568 1794 44.0 III : 7097 4832 12030 8257 1413 9813 21843 1821 41.8 IV : 6783 5255 12148 7940 1471 9544 21692 1835 41.5 Annual : Jan Est : 27081 19681 47177 32262 5696 38501 85678 7211 169.8 Feb Est : 27089 19666 47170 32301 5717 38564 85734 7221 169.6 : 2003 : I*: 6325 4825 11251 7750 1375 9255 20506 1770 42.9 II*: 6825 4670 11593 8225 1450 9810 21403 1785 44.3 III*: 6675 4750 11520 8300 1425 9855 21375 1825 42.0 IV*: 6125 5210 11434 8200 1475 9800 21234 1850 42.0 Annual : Jan Proj : 25700 19390 45492 32525 5700 38745 84237 7235 171.4 Feb Proj : 25950 19455 45798 32475 5725 38720 84518 7230 171.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.10 III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.37 IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.5 11.93 Annual : Jan Est : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.12 Feb Est : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.12 : 2003 : I*: 76-78 34-36 59-61 60-62 74-76 11.35-11.65 II*: 72-76 39-41 58-62 62-66 63-67 10.70-11.30 III*: 72-78 38-42 59-63 65-71 67-73 10.95-11.85 IV*: 74-80 36-38 58-62 71-77 77-83 12.05-13.05 Annual : Jan Proj : 72-77 37-40 57-61 64-69 66-70 11.40-12.20 Feb Proj : 73-78 37-39 58-62 65-69 70-75 11.25-11.95 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-395-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3164 29901 2269 606 27026 66.4 2002 Est. Jan : 606 27186 3210 31002 2500 680 27822 67.4 Feb : 606 27194 3210 31010 2475 695 27840 67.8 2003 Proj. Jan : 680 25805 3305 29790 2565 350 26875 64.4 Feb : 695 26055 3305 30055 2565 350 27140 65.4 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 951 20588 1560 536 18492 50.4 2002 Est. Jan : 536 19703 1057 21296 1619 550 19127 51.3 Feb : 536 19688 1057 21281 1619 532 19130 51.6 2003 Proj. Jan : 550 19412 1080 21042 1645 600 18797 50.0 Feb : 532 19477 1080 21089 1645 540 18904 50.5 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4260 51085 3836 1160 46089 118.5 2002 Est. Jan : 1160 47317 4429 52906 4125 1248 47533 120.4 Feb : 1160 47310 4430 52900 4101 1241 47558 121.2 2003 Proj. Jan : 1248 45632 4557 51437 4215 968 46254 116.1 Feb : 1241 45938 4557 51736 4215 907 46614 117.7 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5555 712 25482 76.9 2002 Est. Jan : 712 31916 12 32640 4865 800 26978 80.1 Feb : 712 31955 12 32678 4865 767 27046 80.8 2003 Proj. Jan : 800 32177 12 32989 5250 775 26964 79.3 Feb : 767 32128 12 32907 5250 700 26957 79.8 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5004 17.6 2002 Est. Jan : 241 5621 1 5863 456 350 5057 17.5 Feb : 241 5642 1 5884 446 334 5103 17.8 2003 Proj. Jan : 350 5625 1 5976 490 325 5160 17.7 Feb : 334 5650 1 5985 470 350 5164 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6224 960 30823 95.6 2002 Est. Jan : 960 38081 16 39057 5458 1156 32445 99.1 Feb : 960 38143 16 39120 5448 1106 32565 100.0 2003 Proj. Jan : 1156 38322 17 39495 5900 1108 32486 98.3 Feb : 1106 38297 17 39420 5840 1056 32523 98.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4278 89093 10060 2120 76912 214.1 2002 Est. Jan : 2120 85398 4445 91963 9583 2404 79978 219.5 Feb : 2120 85453 4446 92020 9549 2347 80123 221.2 2003 Proj. Jan : 2404 83954 4574 90932 10115 2076 78740 214.4 Feb : 2347 84235 4574 91156 10055 1963 79137 216.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-395-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Estimated : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 10.0 10.4 Production : 7033.5 7155.0 7211.0 7221.0 7235.0 7230.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 14.8 14.8 8.0 12.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7175.2 7236.2 7246.2 7253.0 7252.4 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.0 177.6 172.6 168.0 168.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 959.8 964.0 965.0 965.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.0 10.4 12.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6021.8 6088.8 6099.2 6108.0 6109.4 Per capita (number) : 252.1 253.7 252.7 254.6 251.1 252.6 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Est 1/ : 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 11.3 11.3 Production : 167.4 165.2 168.9 168.9 171.0 170.7 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.7 167.6 169.8 169.5 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.8 5.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.6 181.6 185.9 185.9 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.1 170.1 170.0 174.9 174.1 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 11.3 11.3 9.8 10.6 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 9.6 9.6 6.8 6.9 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.03 11.03 9.85- 9.70- : 10.35 10.20 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.22 11.22 10.05- 9.90- : 10.75 10.60 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 12.76 12.76 11.35- 11.20- : 11.85 11.70 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 45 35 Cheese : 17 17 9 9 20 25 Nonfat dry milk : 690 525 817 817 565 570 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-395-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the February projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the February projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.3 million tons (0.4%) ranging from -7.3 to 6.8 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 16 times and above 5 times. Reliability of February Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.4 2.3 -7.3 6.8 16 5 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 9 6 Foreign : 0.5 2.3 -7.3 6.8 16 5 Exports : World : 2.7 3.0 -10.9 5.0 13 8 U.S. : 3.3 1.1 -1.4 3.0 9 12 Foreign : 3.6 3.0 -9.5 4.1 16 5 Domestic use : World : 0.9 4.5 -9.7 9.1 10 11 U.S. : 3.4 1.0 -2.4 2.4 9 12 Foreign : 0.8 4.1 -8.2 8.5 10 11 Ending stocks : World : 3.4 4.2 -11.4 4.1 13 8 U.S. : 7.5 1.5 -4.4 3.2 13 8 Foreign : 3.8 3.5 -10.4 3.7 12 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.7 -17.7 7.3 15 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 11 5 Foreign : 1.1 6.8 -17.7 7.3 13 7 Exports : World : 3.7 3.8 -10.4 13.8 16 5 U.S. : 7.5 3.8 -8.7 12.2 11 10 Foreign : 6.1 3.2 -7.0 7.2 13 8 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.5 -16.2 28.9 9 12 U.S. : 2.6 4.7 -17.3 11.5 9 12 Foreign : 1.0 6.4 -12.5 22.2 12 9 Ending stocks : World : 7.3 10.1 -29.9 16.4 17 4 U.S. : 8.4 5.1 -16.9 18.5 11 10 Foreign : 8.9 6.8 -20.3 9.7 17 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.4 4.7 -14.0 1.9 17 4 U.S. : 1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.2 7 3 Foreign : 1.4 4.7 -14.0 1.8 17 4 Exports : World : 7.4 1.4 -5.2 1.3 17 4 U.S. : 5.8 0.2 -0.5 0.2 11 8 Foreign : 8.5 1.3 -5.0 1.2 17 4 Domestic use : World : 1.1 3.7 -12.8 2.3 15 6 U.S. : 5.4 0.1 -0.4 0.4 10 11 Foreign : 1.1 3.7 -13.0 2.5 15 6 Ending stocks : World : 7.1 3.2 -13.6 4.0 17 4 U.S. : 16.5 0.2 -0.3 0.4 11 10 Foreign : 7.4 3.2 -13.8 4.0 17 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-395-32 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.7 2.1 -4.8 2.1 15 6 U.S. : 1.0 0.5 -1.6 1.8 8 9 Foreign : 3.2 2.0 -5.2 2.2 17 4 Exports : World : 4.1 1.5 -7.0 3.9 13 8 U.S. : 5.4 1.1 -2.3 3.7 12 9 Foreign : 14.4 1.7 -5.9 5.1 11 10 Domestic use : World : 2.0 2.5 -5.4 2.5 13 8 U.S. : 2.3 0.9 -3.0 1.0 15 6 Foreign : 2.3 1.9 -4.2 2.1 14 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.6 2.0 -3.9 5.1 13 8 U.S. : 21.5 1.6 -3.4 4.9 6 15 Foreign : 14.2 1.9 -5.3 3.1 14 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.8 1.5 -5.4 2.8 15 6 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 6 14 Foreign : 2.2 1.5 -5.7 2.7 15 6 Exports : World : 3.2 0.8 -2.5 0.9 11 10 U.S. : 6.9 0.4 -1.0 1.0 9 11 Foreign : 4.4 0.8 -3.5 1.0 11 10 Mill use : World : 1.8 1.5 -6.0 1.3 11 10 U.S. : 3.8 0.3 -0.9 0.8 16 4 Foreign : 1.9 1.4 -5.5 1.6 12 9 Ending stocks : World : 8.0 2.7 -6.0 7.9 11 9 U.S. : 12.4 0.6 -1.5 2.1 7 14 Foreign : 8.4 2.6 -6.2 7.4 12 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-395-33 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.1 3 -8 38 2 1 Exports : 7.7 132 -379 384 10 11 Domestic use : 2.7 161 -474 345 10 11 Ending stocks : 10.3 202 -635 838 13 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 14.0 33 -90 97 13 7 Domestic use : 9.2 42 -178 100 10 11 Ending stocks : 29.5 35 -69 148 9 12 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 9 4 Exports : 10.8 8 -35 23 7 12 Domestic use : 5.3 21 -38 70 11 9 Ending stocks : 9.5 16 -52 24 13 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 2 Exports : 29.8 1 -1 3 3 5 Domestic use : 3.1 12 -26 36 10 11 Ending stocks : 10.2 14 -47 21 11 10 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.2 669 -2328 717 16 5 Exports : 7.5 513 -1900 941 14 7 Domestic use : 1.9 451 -1200 691 15 6 Ending stocks : 32.1 80 -214 208 9 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.2 323 -1173 365 15 6 Exports : 16.7 253 -700 814 9 12 Domestic use : 1.8 233 -735 300 15 5 Ending stocks : 16.3 251 -692 415 11 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.5 613 -741 1613 14 5 Pork : 2.8 454 -1240 1717 13 6 Broilers : 1.8 391 -729 1000 12 7 Turkeys : 1.9 84 -177 161 12 7 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 84 -127 169 12 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.9 1.4 -3.2 3.6 9 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-395-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- End of file ----------------