WASDE-410 May 12, 2004 Note: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2004/05 season. Also presented are the first projections of U.S. livestock product supply, use, and prices for the new year (2005 for animal products and 2004/05 for milk). Projections are based on economic analysis, the assumption of normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. Foreign supply and demand balances in today's report incorporate historical revisions in USDA estimates of China's domestic consumption and stocks of corn. A discussion and a comparison of old and new estimates begin on page 35. Data for the European Union in world supply and use tables are now reported for the EU-25 instead of the EU-15. The Foreign Agricultural Service will post release revised historical grain and oilseed estimates for the EU-25 on Production, Supply, and Demand Online, http://www.fas.usda.gov/ps, at 3 p.m. on May 13. WHEAT: The 2004/05 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a significant decline in production, lower exports, and marginally lower ending stocks. Total production is projected down 11 percent from 2003/04 to 2,080 million bushels due to lower area and yields. Today's survey- based forecast of winter wheat production released by NASS is 9 percent below a year earlier because of lower seedings, higher abandonment, and lower yields. Durum and other spring production is projected lower due to smaller seedings reported in the Prospective Plantings report, the assumed 10-year average harvested-to-planted ratios, and trend yields. The smaller total wheat crop is partially offset by larger beginning stocks, but supplies are still down around 8 percent from 2003/04. Projected U.S. use declines 9 percent in 2004/05 because of smaller exports. A return to average flour extraction rates boosts food use by 15 million bushels. Wheat feed and residual use is projected to decline by 25 million bushels. Projected exports of 975 million bushels are 195 million bushels below 2003/04 because larger exportable supplies are expected in the EU-25, Ukraine, and Russia. U.S. ending stocks are projected down 27 million bushels from a year earlier, and remain relatively low at 499 million bushels. The projected price range for 2004/05 is $3.25 to $3.85 per bushel, compared with an estimated $3.40 for 2003/04. The 2004/05 global wheat outlook is for further decline in stocks despite increased production. Prospects are dominated by expected dramatic production increases for the EU-25, Ukraine, India, and Russia. Global wheat production is projected to rise 39 million tons. The EU-25 crop is projected up 20 million tons to a record 126.5 million tons. Ukraine's crop is up more than 11 million tons from last year's crop of just 3.6 million tons and Russia's is projected to increase nearly 6 million tons (17 percent). India's crop is projected to rise by nearly 7 million tons to 72 million tons. World wheat imports are projected to decline 2 million tons. Part of the decline can be traced to projected reductions in the wheat imports of the EU-25 and Ukraine. However, China's wheat imports are projected to rise 5 million tons. Larger feed- quality wheat supplies are not expected to result in substantial increases in imports by some Asian countries due to continuing high ocean freight costs. Although global stocks are projected to shrink, the combined stocks of the four traditional non-U.S. wheat exporters are projected up by nearly 5 million tons (20 percent). Expanding competitor stocks limit the export prospects of the United States. COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for 2004/05 is for increased feed-grain production, expanding domestic use and exports, lower ending stocks, and higher prices. The U.S. 2004/05 corn crop is projected at 10,425 million bushels, 3 percent above last year's record. The projection is based on Prospective Plantings, harvested-to-planted relationships for 1998-2003 (omitting 2002), and trend yields, adjusted for rapid planting progress. The larger corn crop is mostly offset by smaller projected carryin stocks, leaving total 2004/05 corn supplies marginally above this year's level. Total use of corn in 2004/05 expands due to gains in domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is expected to increase 125 million bushels largely due to increased use of corn to produce ethanol for fuel. Projected feed and residual use declines due to lower expected fed cattle and hog numbers and increased use of ethanol byproducts. U.S. corn exports are up 50 million bushels, largely because of less competition from China. With use exceeding production, 2004/05 ending stocks of corn are down 65 million bushels. The projected price range for corn is $2.55 to $2.95 for 2004/05, compared with $2.45 to $2.55 for 2003/04. Projected stocks of other feed grains are little changed. The global coarse grain outlook for 2004/05 is for sharply higher production, but for use to exceed production and for stocks to decline again. Larger crops are expected in the EU-25, the United States, other Europe, Argentina, Ukraine, and several other countries. Although global coarse grain use is up 8 million tons (1 percent), global coarse grain imports are down just over 1 million tons. U.S. and Argentine corn exports are expected to expand while those of China and Brazil decline. Although China's historical corn stocks have been revised upwards (see page 35 for more information), the dramatic decline in those stocks in recent years is expected to continue in 2004/05. Primarily due to the decline in China's corn stocks, global coarse grain stocks are down nearly 18 million tons. However, stocks in the EU-25 are up 3 million tons, while the combined stocks of several major export competitors are up more than 1 million tons. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2004/05 is projected at 217.5 million cwt, 18.3 million cwt above 2003/04. Planted area, based on Prospective Plantings, is 238,000 acres above 2003/04; harvested area is projected at 3.236 million acres. Rice yield is projected at a record 6,721 pounds per acre, up 76 pounds per acre from 2003/04. The higher yield reflects the continued adoption of higher yielding long-grain rice varieties. Long-grain rice production is projected at 162.5 million cwt, 13.5 million cwt above 2003/04, while combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 55 million cwt, nearly 5 million cwt above 2003/04 and the largest crop since 2000/01. Domestic and residual use for 2004/05 is projected at 118.1 million cwt, 2 million cwt above the revised 2003/04 level. Exports are projected at 111 million cwt, 9 million cwt above revised 2003/04 and the second largest on record. Exports of rough rice are projected at 38 million cwt, the same as revised 2003/04. Exports of milled and brown rice are projected at 73 million cwt (rough basis), 9 million cwt above revised 2003/04. Ending stocks of 24.8 million cwt would be 2.3 million cwt above 2003/04, including long-grain ending stocks of 13.4 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain stocks of 9.6 million cwt. U.S. rice prices are expected to remain firm because of tight global supplies and strong international prices. The projected season- average price range for 2004/05 is $8.25 to $8.75 per cwt compared to $7.45 to $7.55 per cwt for 2003/04. Global 2004/05 rice production is projected at 401.8 million tons, up nearly 11 million tons from 2003/04. World consumption is projected at a record 417.9 million tons, up 5 million tons from 2003/04. Global exports are expected to be nearly unchanged from 2003/04, but down 3.2 million tons from 2002/03. Ending stocks are expected to decline for the fifth straight year, to 69.4 million tons, 16.1 million tons below 2003/04, and the lowest since 1983/84. The global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.6 percent, down from 20.7 percent in 2003/04, and the lowest since 1976/77. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 90.2 million tons, up 19 percent from 2003/04. Soybean production will account for most of the gain, rising 23 percent to a record 2,965 million bushels (80.7 million tons). Soybean production is based on area reported in Prospective Plantings and trend yields. Other U.S. oilseed production is expected to decline by 0.3 million tons due to smaller peanut, sunflowerseed, and canola crops. Soybean supplies are projected to reach a record 3,085 million bushels despite the lowest beginning stocks since 1977. Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 190 million bushels, up 75 million bushels from 2003/04, as supply growth outpaces increases in crush and exports. Soybean crush is projected to rebound sharply from 2003/04, driven by higher domestic soybean meal use and increased meal exports. Soybean exports are projected to increase to 1,080 million bushels for 2004/05. Large U.S. soybean supplies combined with reduced South American supplies and exports this fall are expected to boost U.S. soybean exports to a record level in the new marketing year. Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at a record 378 million tons, up 42.2 million tons from 2003/04. Most of the gain will be from soybeans, with crops in the United States and South America projected to recover from weather, disease, and insect problems experienced in 2003/04. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2004/05 is projected at $5.85 to $6.85 per bushel, compared with $7.65 per bushel in 2003/04. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $195 to $225 per short ton, compared with $275 per short ton for 2003/04. Soybean oil prices are also projected lower, at 25 to 29 cents per pound, compared with 32 cents per pound for 2003/04. Global oilseed output for 2003/04 is projected at 335.8 million tons, down 2.5 million tons from last month. Brazil's soybean crop is reduced 2.5 million tons to 53.5 million tons, reflecting the impact of dry weather on yields in the southern growing region. Likewise, Argentina's soybean production is reduced to 34 million tons, down 1 million tons from last month, and below last year's record. Other oilseed changes include an increase for India rapeseed production, reflecting increased area and better than expected yields. SUGAR: NOTE: "Deliveries" replaces "sales" in the U.S. sugar balance sheet to indicate physical movement to sugar users. Stocks include sales which have not been delivered. U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2004/05 is projected at 12.4 million short tons, raw value. Projected production of 8.6 million tons is down 373,000 tons from 2003/04. Beet sugar production is projected at 4.5 million tons, based on area reported in Prospective Plantings and trend sugar-per-acre yields. Cane sugar production is projected at 4.1 million tons based on projected area and yields. Imports under the sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ) are projected at 1.206 million short tons. This reflects the U.S. commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus a shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary of Agriculture will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. Imports under the other programs, mainly for re- export, are 350,000 tons and other non-program imports are 35,000 tons. Projected 2004/05 use totals 10.1 million tons, comprising 9.715 million tons delivered for domestic food use, 190,000 tons for other domestic deliveries, and 150,000 tons of sugar exports. Year-ending stocks are 2.35 million tons. For 2003/04, sugar production is lowered marginally this month to 8.96 million tons, based on processors' production reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Imports and exports are unchanged. Deliveries for domestic and other uses are estimated at 9.86 million tons. Year- ending stocks are 2.2 million tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans regarding the import of ruminant products due to the discovery of a BSE-infected cow in December 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Total U.S. meat production in 2005 is projected to increase slightly from 2004 as lower red meat output is more than offset by higher poultry meat production. Beef production continues to fall as cattle inventories decline and producers retain heifers for breeding. Pork production is projected slightly lower, as producers have indicated they are cautious about expanding. Broiler and turkey production are expected to rise as strong prices in 2004 and good demand fuel expansion in 2005. Egg production is raised for 2005 based on record- high average egg prices in 2004. Red meat and poultry production in 2004 is reduced slightly from last month as lower beef and turkey output offsets increased pork production. Although cow slaughter is forecast to decline, cows are expected to make up a larger share of cattle slaughter, resulting in lower expected average dressed weights and reduced beef production in the first half of the year. The turkey forecast is reduced as hatch data indicate lower production in the second half of 2004. Hog slaughter continues to run higher than expectations. Meat exports in 2005 are forecast higher, primarily due to increased broiler and pork shipments. Beef exports are still limited by import bans imposed by major trading partners due to BSE. Meat imports are forecast slightly lower in 2005 because of reduced pork imports. Pork export forecasts for 2004 are raised as demand by many importing countries is strong in the face of their restrictions on beef and poultry imports. Broiler export forecasts for 2004 are reduced mainly because high prices are expected to dampen export sales. Cattle and hog prices in 2005 are expected to remain strong in the face of continued strong red meat protein demand. Lower broiler prices are expected as a result of higher broiler meat production. Turkey prices are projected to rise. Egg prices will decline from this year's record as producers gradually respond to this year's better returns. The 2004 cattle price forecast is increased this month to $83 to $86 per cwt and hogs are raised to $45 to $47 per cwt. Broiler and turkey prices are also increased. Strong demand for meat continues to push prices higher. However, the egg price forecast is reduced as egg prices have started to decline from record first-quarter levels. Milk production in 2004/05 is projected to rise above 2003/04 as growth in milk-per-cow is expected to be stronger than during the last 2 years. Although milk-feed ratios are expected to be weaker in 2004/05, an expected resumption of prior allocations of rBST will help boost milk per cow. Commercial use is only expected to increase slightly. Milk prices are projected to fall from the strong prices of 2003/04. CCC net removals of nonfat dry milk are forecast higher but cheese and butter are expected to be more closely balanced. The dairy production forecast for 2003/04 is reduced from last month due to slower growth in milk-per-cow. Tighter milk supplies and continued strong fat-basis demand result in even higher milk prices than forecast previously. Class III prices are forecast at $15.60 to $15.80 per cwt and the Class IV price at $12.30 to $12.60 per cwt. The all milk price is forecast is at $16.20 to $16.40 per cwt. COTTON: The first U.S. projections for 2004/05 include lower production, domestic mill use, and exports, and a modest increase in ending stocks. Production is projected at 17.6 million bales, nearly 4 percent below the 2003/04 season, based on the area indicated by the Prospective Plantings report combined with historical average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill use is projected at 5.8 million bales, 8 percent below 2003/04, as rising apparel imports associated with trade liberalization continue to displace consumption at U.S. mills. Exports are projected at 11.5 million bales, a reduction of 17 percent from this season's record, as much higher foreign production limits world import demand. Ending stocks are forecast at 3.9 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales from 2003/04. The forecast stocks-to- use ratio is 22.5 percent. The world projections for 2004/05 reflect record production and consumption, with sharply higher production boosting stocks. Production is forecast at 102.5 million bales, nearly 10 percent above 2003/04, due primarily to the effect of higher world prices on planted area. World consumption is projected to grow about 1 percent to 99.0 million bales; while economic conditions and trade liberalization are favorable to world textile consumption, cotton consumption will be constrained by the lagged effect of the current relatively high world prices. Projected world trade is reduced to a more normal share of world consumption, compared with record world trade in 2003/04, which was driven by a production shortfall in China. World stocks are raised nearly 12 percent from 2003/04 to 36.5 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 39. APPROVED: J.B. PENN ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on June 11, 2004. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2004: June 11, July 12, Aug. 12, Sep. 10, Oct. 12, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. 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WASDE-410-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 1,817.00 2,350.73 241.08 1,911.05 439.68 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,837.96 2,277.64 233.94 1,941.49 336.15 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 1,921.33 2,257.48 230.40 1,960.82 296.65 Wheat : 2002/03 : 566.86 768.74 108.48 601.67 167.07 2003/04 (Est.) : 549.61 716.67 107.46 587.93 128.75 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 588.67 717.41 102.13 594.15 123.26 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 871.82 1,066.39 103.87 901.00 165.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 897.32 1,062.71 101.39 940.82 121.90 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 930.89 1,052.78 102.76 948.81 103.97 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 378.31 515.61 28.73 408.38 107.23 2003/04 (Est.) : 391.02 498.25 25.10 412.74 85.51 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 401.77 487.28 25.51 417.86 69.42 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 293.96 366.50 72.98 248.38 45.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 345.66 395.52 92.98 262.74 39.80 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 347.56 392.06 89.71 264.78 37.56 Wheat : 2002/03 : 43.71 66.96 23.25 30.34 13.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 63.59 79.01 31.84 32.85 14.31 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 56.62 72.70 26.54 32.58 13.59 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 243.72 291.32 45.87 214.51 30.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 275.70 308.87 57.88 226.21 24.79 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 284.03 311.29 59.65 228.45 23.19 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.54 0.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 6.37 7.64 3.26 3.68 0.70 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 6.91 8.07 3.52 3.75 0.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-410-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 1,523.04 1,984.23 168.11 1,662.67 394.54 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,492.30 1,882.12 140.96 1,678.75 296.35 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 1,573.77 1,865.42 140.69 1,696.04 259.09 Wheat : 2002/03 : 523.16 701.78 85.23 571.33 153.69 2003/04 (Est.) : 486.02 637.67 75.61 555.08 114.43 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 532.05 644.71 75.59 561.57 109.67 Coarse grains 5/ : 2002/03 : 628.10 775.07 58.00 686.49 134.45 2003/04 (Est.) : 621.63 753.84 43.51 714.61 97.11 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 646.85 741.49 43.11 720.36 80.79 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 371.78 507.39 24.87 404.85 106.40 2003/04 (Est.) : 384.65 490.61 21.83 409.06 84.81 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 394.87 479.22 21.99 414.11 68.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2002/03 : 88.23 135.64 30.59 98.60 36.49 2003/04 (Est.) : 93.49 129.98 33.03 97.80 32.66 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 102.50 135.16 30.50 99.00 36.46 : United States 2002/03 : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 18.26 23.69 13.80 6.30 3.60 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 17.60 21.24 11.50 5.80 3.90 : Foreign 3/ 2002/03 : 71.02 110.92 18.69 91.33 31.11 2003/04 (Est.) : 75.23 106.29 19.23 91.50 29.06 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 84.90 113.92 19.00 93.20 32.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-410-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 329.75 366.83 71.39 268.00 44.00 2003/04 (Est.) : 335.79 379.80 73.34 285.42 35.58 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 378.00 413.58 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 185.61 191.43 53.41 187.56 4.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 196.88 201.70 58.56 196.89 4.63 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 94.49 102.59 36.19 95.92 6.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 100.98 107.37 37.17 100.96 6.39 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 83.94 91.36 29.45 47.52 5.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 75.62 82.15 25.42 44.02 4.04 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 90.20 94.98 30.24 49.39 6.19 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 36.61 38.08 5.65 32.19 0.24 2003/04 (Est.) : 33.85 35.87 4.01 31.66 0.20 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 38.21 40.01 5.54 34.20 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 9.20 12.03 1.24 9.89 0.89 2003/04 (Est.) : 8.44 11.11 0.63 9.83 0.65 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 9.55 11.94 0.82 10.30 0.83 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 245.82 275.48 41.94 220.48 38.17 2003/04 (Est.) : 260.18 297.65 47.93 241.40 31.54 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : 287.80 318.60 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 149.00 153.35 47.76 155.37 4.58 2003/04 (Est.) : 163.02 165.83 54.55 165.23 4.42 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 85.29 90.56 34.95 86.03 5.50 2003/04 (Est.) : 92.55 96.26 36.53 91.13 5.74 2004/05 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-410-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.3 61.7 59.5 * Harvested : 45.8 52.8 50.4 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.0 44.2 41.3 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 777 491 526 Production : 1,606 2,337 2,080 Imports : 77 75 65 Supply, total : 2,460 2,903 2,671 Food : 918 900 915 Seed : 84 82 82 Feed and residual : 113 225 200 Domestic, total : 1,115 1,207 1,197 Exports : 854 1,170 975 Use, total : 1,969 2,377 2,172 Ending stocks : 491 526 499 CCC inventory : 66 60 Free stocks : 425 466 Outstanding loans : 51 35 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.56 3.40 3.25- 3.85 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum :Total =============================================================================== 2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,063 500 379 298 97 2,337 Supply, total 3/ : 1,254 658 461 382 148 2,903 Domestic use : 518 241 249 116 82 1,207 Exports : 522 265 145 195 43 1,170 Use, total : 1,040 506 394 312 126 2,377 Ending stocks May : 214 152 68 70 22 526 Apr : 216 158 61 70 26 531 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2004, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using 10-year average harvested-to-planted ratios and projected yield derived from 1985-2003 trend yield. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 12 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2004/05 will first be published * * in the July 12 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-410-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.5 98.1 96.6 * Harvested : 82.6 85.8 85.3 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.95 3.21 3.33 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.0 30.9 24.8 Production : 243.6 275.5 283.8 Imports : 2.4 2.1 2.4 Supply, total : 291.0 308.5 310.9 Feed and residual : 149.3 155.5 154.3 Food, seed & industrial : 64.9 70.3 73.8 Domestic, total : 214.2 225.9 228.1 Exports : 45.9 57.9 59.6 Use, total : 260.1 283.7 287.8 Ending stocks, total : 30.9 24.8 23.2 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 30.8 24.7 Outstanding loans : 7.1 5.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.9 78.7 79.0 * Harvested : 69.3 71.1 71.9 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 129.3 142.2 145.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,596 1,087 806 Production : 8,967 10,114 10,425 Imports : 14 10 15 Supply, total : 10,578 11,211 11,246 Feed and residual : 5,558 5,800 5,725 Food, seed & industrial : 2,340 2,555 2,680 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 996 1,195 1,300 Domestic, total : 7,898 8,355 8,405 Exports : 1,592 2,050 2,100 Use, total : 9,491 10,405 10,505 Ending stocks, total : 1,087 806 741 CCC inventory : 5 1 Free stocks : 1,082 805 Outstanding loans : 277 225 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.32 2.45- 2.55 2.55- 2.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of corn use including fuel alcohol see the ERS Feed Outlook table 5, or ERS feed grain data at http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/. Under "Custom" select data type: supply and use. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 2004, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1998-2003 omitting 2002. Projected yield derived from a linear trend fit over 1960-2003 (1988 omitted), adjusted for planting progress. WASDE-410-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.4 8.6 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.1 7.8 7.3 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 50.6 52.7 62.6 * Beginning stocks : 61 43 44 Production : 361 411 455 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 422 454 499 Feed and residual : 169 175 190 Food, seed & industrial : 24 25 35 Total domestic : 193 200 225 Exports : 186 210 225 Use, total : 379 410 450 Ending stocks, total : 43 44 49 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.32 2.45- 2.55 2.50- 2.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.3 4.7 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.7 4.1 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.0 58.9 62.5 * Beginning stocks : 92 69 103 Production : 227 276 255 Imports : 18 15 20 Supply, total : 337 360 378 Feed and residual : 65 65 80 Food, seed & industrial : 173 172 172 Total domestic : 238 237 252 Exports : 30 20 25 Use, total : 268 257 277 Ending stocks, total : 69 103 101 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.72 2.85 2.60- 3.00 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 4.6 4.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.1 2.2 2.1 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.4 65.0 62.9 * Beginning stocks : 63 50 64 Production : 116 145 130 Imports : 95 90 90 Supply, total : 274 284 284 Feed and residual : 150 145 145 Food, seed & industrial : 72 73 74 Total domestic : 222 218 219 Exports : 3 2 3 Use, total : 224 220 222 Ending stocks, total : 50 64 62 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.81 1.48 1.45- 1.75 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2004, Prospective Plantings. Harvested Area-- For Sorghum harvested acres is the five year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 1998-2003 (excluding 2002). For barley harvested acres is the three year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 2000-2003 (excluding 2002). For oats harvested acres reported in March 31, 2004 Prospective Plantings. Yield-- For sorghum 10 year (1994-2003) average yield. For barley and oats projected yield derived from 1960-2003 trend yield. WASDE-410-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.26 * Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.24 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,578 6,645 6,721 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 21.9 Production : 211.0 199.2 217.5 Imports : 14.8 14.0 14.5 Supply, total : 264.8 239.9 253.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 116.0 118.1 Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 102.0 111.0 Rough : 43.0 38.0 38.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.5 64.0 73.0 Use, total : 238.0 218.0 229.1 Ending stocks : 26.8 21.9 24.8 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.5 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 7.45- 7.55 8.25- 8.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 12.2 Production : 157.2 149.0 162.5 Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 173.9 184.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.2 79.8 84.0 Exports 8/ : 99.2 82.0 87.0 Use, total : 178.4 161.8 171.0 Ending stocks : 15.7 12.2 13.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,299 Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 7.9 Production : 53.7 50.1 55.0 Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 64.2 67.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 36.2 34.1 Exports 8/ : 25.3 20.0 24.0 Use, total : 59.6 56.2 58.1 Ending stocks : 9.3 7.9 9.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2004 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres are estimated using average harvested-to-planted ratios by class of rice, 1999-2003. Yield is projected using the average annual percentage increase in yield, 2001-2003. WASDE-410-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.0 73.4 75.4 * Harvested : 72.5 72.3 74.1 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.0 33.4 40.0 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 208 178 115 Production : 2,756 2,418 2,965 Imports : 5 8 5 Supply, total : 2,969 2,604 3,085 Crushings : 1,615 1,475 1,665 Exports : 1,045 900 1,080 Seed : 89 92 91 Residual : 41 22 59 Use, total : 2,791 2,489 2,895 Ending stocks : 178 115 190 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.53 7.65 5.85 - 6.85 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,021 Production : 18,438 16,495 _3/ 18,730 Imports : 46 235 105 Supply, total : 20,843 18,221 19,856 Domestic : 17,091 16,350 17,400 Exports : 2,261 850 1,200 Use, total : 19,352 17,200 18,600 Ending stocks : 1,491 1,021 1,256 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.04 32.00 25.00- : 29.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 240 220 175 Production : 38,213 35,030 _3/ 39,610 Imports : 166 475 165 Supply, total : 38,619 35,725 39,950 Domestic : 32,386 31,300 33,800 Exports : 6,013 4,250 5,900 Use, total : 38,399 35,550 39,700 Ending stocks : 220 175 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 181.57 275.00 195.00- : 225.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,470 million bushels. *Planted acres are reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted to harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional trend analysis. WASDE-410-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 2003/04 : 2004/05 Item : 2002/03 :====================:============ : : April* May : Projection ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,528 1,251 1,661 2,223 Production 2/ : 8,379 8,994 8,963 8,590 Beet sugar : 4,415 4,862 4,875 4,520 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,964 4,132 4,088 4,070 Imports : 1,730 1,659 1,659 1,591 TRQ 4/ : 1,210 1,224 1,224 1,206 Other program 5/ : 488 400 400 350 Other 6/ : 32 35 35 35 Supply, total : 11,637 11,904 12,283 12,404 : Exports : 142 200 200 150 Deliveries : 9,674 9,715 9,860 9,905 Food : 9,466 9,500 9,670 9,715 Other 7/ : 208 215 190 190 Miscellaneous 8/ : 160 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,976 9,915 10,060 10,055 Ending stocks : 1,661 1,989 2,223 2,349 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.6 20.1 22.1 23.4 ====================================================================== * Note: April 2003/04 supply and use estimates are from April 2004 WASDE and are not comparable to this month's 2002/03, May 2003/04, and projected 2004/05. 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2004/05 are based on March Prospective Plantings and trend yields. 3/ Production by state for 2003/04 (projected 2004/05): FL 2,151 (2,040); HI 286 (270); LA 1,458 (1,575); TX 193 (185); PR 0 (0). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2004/05, includes only the US commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical discrepancies. WASDE-410-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.96 13.48 14.40 * Harvested : 12.42 12.00 12.70 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 665 730 665 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 7.45 5.38 3.60 Production : 17.21 18.26 17.60 Imports : 0.07 0.05 0.04 Supply, total : 24.72 23.69 21.24 Domestic use : 7.27 6.30 5.80 Exports : 11.90 13.80 11.50 Use, total : 19.17 20.10 17.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.17 -0.01 0.04 Ending stocks : 5.38 3.60 3.90 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 44.5 62.7 5/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 2003/04 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area is reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on 1999-2003 U.S. average abandonment. Projected yield per harvested acre based on 1999-2003 U.S.average yield per harvested acre. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2003/04 is 17.7 percent. WASDE-410-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 201.87 566.86 107.59 112.51 601.67 108.48 167.07 United States : 21.15 43.71 2.11 3.08 30.34 23.25 13.37 Total foreign : 180.72 523.16 105.49 109.42 571.33 85.23 153.69 Major exporters 4/ : 30.84 163.04 14.60 66.94 136.07 45.25 27.15 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.06 0.29 3.38 6.10 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.12 8.26 9.40 5.65 EU-25 5/ : 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 Major importers 6/ : 96.57 143.51 54.42 11.38 210.57 5.22 78.71 Brazil : 0.90 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.44 0.50 6.65 N. Africa 8/ : 5.61 11.70 18.77 0.30 29.67 0.38 6.04 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.44 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.00 9.30 1.63 9.06 0.37 1.53 Selected other : India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 : 16.64 96.96 4.10 23.91 73.66 25.82 18.23 Russia : 6.48 50.55 1.05 16.00 39.32 12.62 6.13 Kazakhstan : 4.70 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 6.24 5.42 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.07 549.61 102.13 99.63 587.93 107.46 128.75 United States : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 32.85 31.84 14.31 Total foreign : 153.69 486.02 100.09 93.51 555.08 75.61 114.43 Major exporters 4/ : 27.15 168.62 7.29 60.55 128.83 50.50 23.74 Argentina : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.00 1.76 Australia : 3.14 25.00 0.08 3.00 5.70 17.50 5.02 Canada : 5.65 23.50 0.20 3.50 7.70 15.50 6.15 EU-25 5/ : 16.83 106.62 7.00 53.97 110.15 9.50 10.81 Major importers 6/ : 78.71 147.17 50.65 9.77 209.83 6.44 60.26 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.60 0.30 10.00 1.30 0.81 China : 60.38 86.00 3.00 6.00 104.50 2.50 42.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.65 16.83 8.60 0.95 25.46 1.00 5.62 N. Africa 8/ : 6.04 16.04 14.90 0.30 30.08 0.26 6.64 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.10 0.40 18.90 0.20 1.63 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.53 0.00 9.15 1.27 8.96 0.33 1.39 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.02 0.60 68.60 5.50 6.72 FSU-12 : 18.23 61.41 7.24 17.28 65.99 9.83 11.06 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 2.23 Kazakhstan : 5.42 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.20 4.64 Ukraine : 3.26 3.60 3.50 0.73 10.03 0.02 0.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-410-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 128.75 588.67 99.98 104.30 594.15 102.13 123.26 United States : May : 14.31 56.62 1.77 5.44 32.58 26.54 13.59 Total foreign : May : 114.43 532.05 98.22 98.86 561.57 75.59 109.67 Major exporters 4/ : May : 23.74 188.00 5.29 64.78 133.38 55.00 28.64 Argentina May : 1.76 14.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 1.79 Australia May : 5.02 24.00 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 6.49 Canada May : 6.15 23.50 0.20 3.80 8.00 15.50 6.35 EU-25 5/ May : 10.81 126.50 5.00 58.00 114.30 14.00 14.01 Major importers 6/ : May : 60.26 143.83 57.10 8.31 209.48 3.19 48.52 Brazil May : 0.81 4.70 5.50 0.40 10.20 0.10 0.71 China May : 42.38 84.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 31.38 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 5.62 16.74 9.45 1.30 26.14 0.70 4.97 N. Africa 8/ May : 6.64 16.18 14.90 0.30 30.63 0.26 6.83 Pakistan May : 1.63 19.00 0.20 0.40 19.30 0.05 1.48 SE Asia 9/ May : 1.39 0.00 9.55 1.38 9.27 0.33 1.34 Selected other : India May : 6.72 72.00 0.02 0.50 69.22 2.00 7.52 FSU-12 May : 11.06 79.29 3.99 19.41 69.88 11.16 13.30 Russia May : 2.23 40.00 1.00 13.00 36.50 3.50 3.23 Kazakhstan May : 4.64 11.50 0.02 1.80 6.50 5.50 4.15 Ukraine May : 0.31 15.00 0.50 2.50 12.00 2.00 1.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-410-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 194.56 871.82 102.76 596.24 901.00 103.87 165.39 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.56 149.40 214.51 45.87 30.94 Total foreign : 149.53 628.10 100.19 446.84 686.49 58.00 134.45 Major exporters 4/ : 8.45 56.01 4.88 31.95 44.74 16.86 7.74 Argentina : 0.96 19.45 0.00 5.12 7.33 11.94 1.14 Australia : 2.00 6.55 0.01 4.09 5.40 2.08 1.08 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 35.78 203.43 78.60 201.77 270.65 9.91 37.26 EU-25 6/ : 21.07 137.45 6.35 102.03 135.51 8.63 20.72 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.33 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.41 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.78 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.91 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.55 23.68 25.18 39.47 45.88 0.97 6.57 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.05 15.15 4.15 13.72 19.03 0.31 1.02 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.94 6.69 9.24 0.00 1.25 Selected other : China : 85.58 130.62 1.83 98.43 136.29 15.34 66.39 Other Europe : 2.25 22.24 1.02 17.35 21.10 1.40 3.02 FSU-12 : 11.39 60.74 0.90 34.95 52.74 8.09 12.20 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.30 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.11 0.43 9.30 13.26 3.99 2.90 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 165.39 897.32 99.82 616.14 940.82 101.39 121.90 United States : 30.94 275.70 2.23 155.63 226.21 57.88 24.79 Total foreign : 134.45 621.63 97.59 460.51 714.61 43.51 97.11 Major exporters 4/ : 7.74 63.70 2.93 34.14 47.28 18.72 8.37 Argentina : 1.14 16.10 0.01 4.68 6.94 9.17 1.15 Australia : 1.08 12.96 0.00 5.59 6.91 5.25 1.88 Canada : 3.14 26.31 2.07 19.53 24.13 3.28 4.11 Major importers 5/ : 37.26 191.52 77.57 203.82 272.84 4.57 28.94 EU-25 6/ : 20.72 121.35 7.26 100.90 134.17 3.82 11.34 Japan : 2.41 0.20 19.99 15.49 20.32 0.00 2.28 Mexico : 3.91 27.55 9.53 20.11 36.15 0.05 4.79 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.57 26.46 22.05 41.61 48.27 0.30 6.50 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.02 15.60 4.10 13.61 18.97 0.40 1.35 South Korea : 1.25 0.30 9.73 7.56 10.13 0.00 1.15 Selected other : China : 66.39 123.30 1.61 100.50 139.30 8.08 43.92 Other Europe : 3.02 17.95 1.32 16.96 20.70 0.22 1.36 FSU-12 : 12.20 55.32 1.21 39.28 56.95 5.95 5.84 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.70 21.48 33.20 3.00 2.20 Ukraine : 2.90 15.60 0.30 10.70 14.30 2.31 2.19 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-410-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 121.90 930.89 98.41 618.97 948.81 102.76 103.97 United States : May : 24.79 284.03 2.47 154.43 228.45 59.65 23.19 Total foreign : May : 97.11 646.85 95.94 464.53 720.36 43.11 80.79 Major exporters 4/ : May : 8.37 67.06 2.96 34.49 47.93 20.94 9.52 Argentina May : 1.15 19.35 0.01 4.98 7.29 11.56 1.66 Australia May : 1.88 11.66 0.00 5.39 6.61 4.95 1.97 Canada May : 4.11 26.32 2.25 19.78 24.73 3.40 4.55 Major importers 5/ : May : 28.94 210.03 75.96 206.60 276.99 5.07 32.88 EU-25 6/ May : 11.34 139.95 3.06 101.49 135.40 4.51 14.44 Japan May : 2.28 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Mexico May : 4.79 27.45 10.94 22.17 38.31 0.01 4.85 N Afr/M.East 7/May : 6.50 26.07 23.64 41.94 49.00 0.15 7.06 S.-east Asia 8/May : 1.35 15.92 3.91 13.87 19.37 0.40 1.41 South Korea May : 1.15 0.33 9.51 7.14 9.79 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China May : 43.92 124.30 2.01 102.80 142.85 4.08 23.30 Other Europe May : 1.36 22.68 0.96 17.78 21.65 1.10 2.25 FSU-12 May : 5.84 55.95 1.10 34.81 51.79 5.69 5.41 Russia May : 2.20 30.10 0.80 18.30 29.10 2.00 2.00 Ukraine May : 2.19 16.80 0.07 9.45 13.30 3.16 2.60 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-410-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 147.97 600.99 76.57 435.07 626.80 78.05 122.15 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.18 200.63 40.45 27.60 Total foreign : 107.42 373.22 76.20 293.89 426.17 37.60 94.55 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.45 6.60 12.65 12.30 2.95 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.00 2.50 4.00 11.20 0.63 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.45 4.10 8.65 1.10 2.32 Major importers 5/ : 11.25 89.33 49.04 93.83 133.91 2.31 13.40 Egypt : 0.25 6.00 4.86 9.10 10.90 0.00 0.21 EU-25 6/ : 2.66 49.08 4.33 38.38 49.24 2.00 4.83 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.87 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.28 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.25 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.44 18.74 0.30 1.01 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.78 0.00 1.25 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 44.50 0.78 34.00 37.50 4.63 3.87 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 84.79 121.30 0.03 96.00 125.90 15.24 64.97 Other Europe : 1.76 17.68 0.54 14.37 16.84 0.65 2.49 FSU-12 : 1.50 8.54 0.19 6.39 7.86 0.85 1.51 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.15 614.30 77.13 448.34 649.50 77.26 86.96 United States : 27.60 256.90 0.25 147.33 212.23 52.07 20.46 Total foreign : 94.55 357.40 76.88 301.02 437.27 25.19 66.49 Major exporters 4/ : 2.95 20.30 0.71 6.70 12.80 9.50 1.66 Argentina : 0.63 12.50 0.01 2.60 4.10 8.50 0.54 South Africa : 2.32 7.80 0.70 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.12 Major importers 5/ : 13.40 80.88 51.00 92.49 132.66 0.85 11.78 Egypt : 0.21 6.15 4.50 8.90 10.70 0.00 0.16 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.00 5.00 35.00 45.80 0.40 2.62 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.80 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 3.25 20.30 6.30 11.00 26.20 0.05 3.60 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.01 15.32 4.10 13.34 18.69 0.40 1.34 South Korea : 1.25 0.07 9.50 7.40 9.67 0.00 1.15 Selected other : Brazil : 3.87 41.50 0.55 35.00 38.80 4.00 3.12 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.00 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.91 China : 64.97 114.00 0.10 98.00 128.60 8.00 42.47 Other Europe : 2.49 14.27 0.78 13.98 16.46 0.20 0.89 FSU-12 : 1.51 11.54 0.50 9.67 11.16 1.03 1.36 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.40 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-410-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 86.96 642.58 75.00 454.30 662.74 77.74 66.80 United States : May : 20.46 264.81 0.38 145.42 213.50 53.34 18.81 Total foreign : May : 66.49 377.77 74.61 308.88 449.24 24.40 47.98 Major exporters 4/ : May : 1.66 24.80 0.51 6.80 12.90 12.00 2.07 Argentina May : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.20 11.00 0.85 South Africa May : 1.12 9.30 0.50 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.22 Major importers 5/ : May : 11.78 93.26 48.21 97.60 138.75 0.91 13.58 Egypt May : 0.16 6.20 4.70 9.00 10.90 0.00 0.16 EU-25 6/ May : 2.62 51.00 2.50 40.10 51.50 0.50 4.12 Japan May : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Mexico May : 3.60 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 3.69 S.-east Asia 7/May : 1.34 15.64 3.91 13.60 19.09 0.40 1.41 South Korea May : 1.15 0.07 9.30 7.00 9.32 0.00 1.20 Selected other : Brazil May : 3.12 43.50 0.40 36.20 40.00 4.50 2.52 Canada May : 0.91 9.50 2.20 8.70 11.40 0.30 0.91 China May : 42.47 115.00 0.20 100.00 131.60 4.00 22.07 Other Europe May : 0.89 17.92 0.53 14.58 17.06 0.60 1.68 FSU-12 May : 1.36 9.57 0.61 8.26 9.65 0.83 1.07 Russia May : 0.11 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-410-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 3/ : 137.30 378.31 26.12 408.38 28.73 107.23 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.54 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 136.08 371.78 25.65 404.85 24.87 106.40 Major exporters 4/ : 30.58 115.90 0.04 111.11 18.78 16.64 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.65 1.99 0.05 Thailand : 2.40 17.20 0.00 9.92 7.55 2.13 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.07 55.27 12.05 67.13 0.41 11.85 Brazil : 0.54 7.02 1.25 8.10 0.02 0.69 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.65 1.13 2.44 0.33 0.89 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 0.68 2.20 1.90 4.00 0.00 0.78 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.50 2.15 2.51 5.05 0.06 1.04 Selected other : Burma : 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 1.59 8.09 0.63 8.79 0.20 1.32 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.68 4.93 0.13 5.07 0.57 1.10 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 3/ : 107.23 391.02 24.72 412.74 25.10 85.51 United States : 0.83 6.37 0.45 3.68 3.26 0.70 Total foreign : 106.40 384.65 24.27 409.06 21.83 84.81 Major exporters 4/ : 16.64 131.94 0.04 114.85 17.15 16.61 India : 11.00 88.00 0.00 83.75 2.75 12.50 Pakistan : 0.05 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.90 0.35 Thailand : 2.13 17.70 0.00 10.20 8.75 0.88 Vietnam : 3.47 21.34 0.04 18.20 3.75 2.89 Major importers 5/ : 11.85 58.38 10.31 68.64 0.44 11.47 Brazil : 0.69 8.60 0.60 8.40 0.05 1.44 EU-25 6/ : 0.89 1.68 1.14 2.45 0.33 0.93 Indonesia : 4.34 34.25 1.25 36.65 0.00 3.19 Nigeria : 0.78 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 0.58 Philippines : 3.81 9.10 1.35 10.25 0.00 4.01 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.04 2.27 3.20 5.32 0.06 1.13 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.20 1.56 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.15 China : 67.22 115.00 1.30 135.40 1.20 46.92 Egypt : 0.77 3.97 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.74 Japan : 1.32 7.09 0.70 8.44 0.20 0.47 Mexico : 0.17 0.17 0.60 0.73 0.00 0.21 South Korea : 1.10 4.45 0.18 4.92 0.11 0.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-410-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 85.51 401.77 24.55 417.86 25.51 69.42 United States : May : 0.70 6.91 0.46 3.75 3.52 0.79 Total foreign : May : 84.81 394.87 24.09 414.11 21.99 68.63 Major exporters 4/ : May : 16.61 134.40 0.04 118.15 16.75 16.15 India May : 12.50 90.00 0.00 86.50 2.75 13.25 Pakistan May : 0.35 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.60 Thailand May : 0.88 17.90 0.00 10.30 8.00 0.48 Vietnam May : 2.89 21.50 0.04 18.60 4.00 1.83 Major importers 5/ : May : 11.47 58.19 10.03 68.87 0.46 10.35 Brazil May : 1.44 8.10 0.60 8.45 0.05 1.64 EU-25 6/ May : 0.93 1.71 1.15 2.46 0.35 0.98 Indonesia May : 3.19 34.40 2.00 36.60 0.00 2.99 Nigeria May : 0.58 2.30 1.60 4.03 0.00 0.45 Philippines May : 4.01 9.10 0.50 10.50 0.00 3.11 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 1.13 2.30 3.10 5.41 0.06 1.07 Selected other : Burma May : 1.56 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.01 C. Am & Car. 8/May : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 China May : 46.92 122.50 1.30 135.70 1.20 33.82 Egypt May : 0.74 4.00 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.71 Japan May : 0.47 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 0.47 Mexico May : 0.21 0.19 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.18 South Korea May : 0.70 4.80 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-410-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World : 47.41 88.23 30.29 98.60 30.59 0.25 36.49 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.38 Total foreign : 39.96 71.02 30.22 91.33 18.69 0.08 31.11 Major exporters 4/ : 11.12 24.20 1.44 14.11 14.18 0.01 8.45 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.94 6.83 3/ 1.82 5.30 0.00 1.65 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.12 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.72 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.89 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.23 Major importers : 26.75 43.78 23.91 70.60 3.31 0.06 20.47 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 5.13 10.60 1.22 13.30 0.05 0.00 3.59 Mexico : 0.72 0.19 2.30 2.10 0.07 0.03 1.02 China : 12.61 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 7.68 EU-25 8/ : 1.74 2.16 3.92 4.83 1.59 0.06 1.34 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.26 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.46 0.16 8.87 8.91 0.06 0.08 2.45 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.40 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.94 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World : 36.49 93.49 33.52 97.80 33.03 0.02 32.66 United States : 5.38 18.26 0.05 6.30 13.80 -0.01 3.60 Total foreign : 31.11 75.23 33.47 91.50 19.23 0.03 29.06 Major exporters 4/ : 8.45 24.30 2.60 14.42 13.94 -0.04 7.04 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.75 9.60 0.15 0.03 1.98 Central Asia 5/ : 1.65 6.76 0.01 1.89 5.08 0.00 1.44 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.53 3/ 0.20 4.55 0.00 1.31 S. Hemis. 7/ : 1.89 2.86 0.48 1.12 2.86 -0.08 1.33 Australia : 1.23 1.40 3/ 0.08 2.05 -0.10 0.61 Major importers : 20.47 47.69 26.22 70.46 3.79 0.06 20.07 Brazil : 2.88 5.65 0.48 3.75 1.10 -0.10 4.26 India : 3.59 13.10 0.90 13.10 0.45 0.00 4.04 Mexico : 1.02 0.31 1.45 2.00 0.09 0.03 0.67 China : 7.68 22.40 8.70 31.50 0.20 0.00 7.08 EU-25 8/ : 1.34 1.96 3.22 4.03 1.45 0.06 0.98 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.29 4.10 2.20 6.20 0.45 0.00 0.94 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.45 0.17 7.85 8.43 0.06 0.08 1.90 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.60 0.07 1.70 1.95 0.01 0.03 0.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-410-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World : May : 32.66 102.50 30.80 99.00 30.50 0.00 36.46 United States : May : 3.60 17.60 0.04 5.80 11.50 0.04 3.90 Total foreign : May : 29.06 84.90 30.76 93.20 19.00 -0.04 32.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the historical difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. WASDE-410-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 30.71 184.88 54.15 157.98 183.96 53.59 32.18 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.87 28.95 5.66 Total foreign : 23.96 106.21 54.09 111.72 133.10 24.64 26.52 Major exporters 3/ : 16.41 77.05 1.40 46.60 50.14 23.39 21.33 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.00 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.82 18.20 42.24 48.62 62.59 0.37 4.30 China : 4.91 15.41 10.38 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 EU-25 : 0.85 1.31 18.25 17.32 19.28 0.04 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.88 5.21 0.00 0.67 Mexico : 0.18 0.07 4.51 4.61 4.66 0.00 0.10 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 32.18 197.28 63.21 165.35 190.76 62.10 39.81 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.97 47.50 28.44 4.85 Total foreign : 26.52 122.27 63.08 121.39 143.25 33.66 34.96 Major exporters 3/ : 21.33 92.50 1.72 51.90 55.92 32.04 27.59 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.48 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.32 27.17 29.76 20.13 15.00 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.79 51.66 53.98 67.88 0.34 6.52 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.99 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.08 0.89 17.11 16.18 18.02 0.05 1.02 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.70 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 39.29 193.41 62.50 172.87 199.50 62.69 33.00 May : 39.81 190.05 61.77 171.45 198.01 61.89 31.72 United States : April : 4.85 65.80 0.22 40.14 43.25 24.49 3.13 May : 4.85 65.80 0.22 40.14 43.25 24.49 3.13 Total foreign : April : 34.43 127.61 62.28 132.73 156.26 38.19 29.87 May : 34.96 124.25 61.55 131.31 154.76 37.40 28.59 Major exporters 3/ : April : 27.06 95.00 1.00 58.10 62.69 36.32 24.06 May : 27.59 91.50 1.00 57.30 61.83 35.32 22.94 Argentina Apr : 12.51 35.00 0.30 25.25 26.78 10.25 10.78 May : 12.48 34.00 0.30 24.70 26.23 9.75 10.80 Brazil Apr : 14.45 56.00 0.70 31.50 34.47 23.50 13.18 May : 15.00 53.50 0.70 31.25 34.16 23.00 12.04 Major importers 4/ : April : 6.52 18.30 51.00 56.16 70.60 0.36 4.86 May : 6.52 18.41 50.63 55.93 70.43 0.35 4.78 China Apr : 4.47 16.20 20.50 29.25 37.89 0.28 3.00 May : 4.47 16.20 20.25 29.00 37.64 0.28 3.00 EU-25 Apr : 1.02 0.65 17.00 16.00 17.81 0.05 0.81 May : 1.02 0.73 17.03 16.05 17.94 0.04 0.81 Japan Apr : 0.70 0.28 5.15 4.04 5.43 0.00 0.70 May : 0.70 0.28 5.00 4.00 5.36 0.00 0.63 Mexico Apr : 0.05 0.10 4.30 4.37 4.40 0.00 0.04 May : 0.05 0.13 4.30 4.39 4.43 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-410-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 3.78 125.18 41.44 125.88 40.35 4.18 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.00 6.81 0.22 Total foreign : 3.44 88.63 41.31 95.88 33.53 3.96 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.67 0.33 9.28 30.49 1.09 Argentina : 0.10 16.50 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.80 11.98 0.75 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.14 32.29 25.96 56.60 1.38 1.41 EU-25 : 0.83 13.84 20.95 34.22 0.32 1.08 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.18 130.89 43.37 132.71 42.08 3.65 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.38 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.96 96.22 43.22 103.33 36.63 3.45 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 42.77 0.32 9.86 33.44 0.88 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.75 21.46 0.32 8.12 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.51 1.23 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.41 36.53 26.57 62.29 1.13 1.09 EU-25 : 1.08 12.93 21.64 34.56 0.33 0.77 China : 0.00 21.50 0.00 20.70 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 3.65 137.03 48.81 137.65 48.35 3.49 May : 3.65 135.88 46.73 136.61 46.20 3.45 United States : April : 0.20 31.78 0.43 28.40 3.86 0.16 May : 0.20 31.78 0.43 28.40 3.86 0.16 Total foreign : April : 3.45 105.25 48.38 109.26 44.49 3.33 May : 3.45 104.10 46.30 108.21 42.35 3.29 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.88 49.45 0.28 10.57 39.28 0.75 May : 0.88 48.79 0.28 10.18 39.03 0.74 Argentina Apr : 0.20 19.97 0.00 0.24 19.84 0.10 May : 0.20 19.51 0.00 0.24 19.38 0.10 Brazil Apr : 0.64 24.88 0.28 8.74 16.45 0.60 May : 0.64 24.68 0.28 8.55 16.45 0.60 India Apr : 0.04 4.60 0.00 1.59 3.00 0.04 May : 0.04 4.60 0.00 1.39 3.20 0.04 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.09 38.27 29.99 65.26 2.97 1.11 May : 1.09 37.98 28.69 65.50 1.15 1.11 EU-25 Apr : 0.61 12.80 21.69 32.36 2.15 0.58 May : 0.77 12.84 23.60 36.07 0.34 0.79 China Apr : 0.00 23.30 0.05 22.55 0.80 0.00 May : 0.00 23.10 0.05 22.35 0.80 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-410-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 2.71 28.85 8.06 28.69 8.39 2.55 United States : 1.25 8.57 0.02 7.64 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.46 20.28 8.04 21.05 7.24 1.48 Major exporters 3/ : 0.50 11.68 0.20 5.45 6.40 0.53 Argentina : 0.10 3.88 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.13 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-25 : 0.20 3.10 0.05 2.23 0.90 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.46 4.48 2.00 6.48 0.06 0.41 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 India : 0.18 0.86 1.55 2.39 0.00 0.19 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.55 30.39 8.71 30.73 9.14 1.78 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.48 22.02 8.69 22.98 8.11 1.11 Major exporters 3/ : 0.53 12.48 0.16 5.51 7.32 0.35 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.19 0.07 3.07 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.23 2.90 0.09 2.32 0.71 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.07 8.45 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.72 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.25 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.11 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 1.78 31.60 9.10 31.45 9.57 1.45 May : 1.78 31.36 9.09 31.59 9.19 1.45 United States : April : 0.68 7.48 0.11 7.42 0.39 0.46 May : 0.68 7.48 0.11 7.42 0.39 0.46 Total foreign : April : 1.10 24.12 8.99 24.03 9.19 0.99 May : 1.11 23.87 8.98 24.17 8.80 0.99 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.33 13.57 0.08 5.36 8.28 0.33 May : 0.35 13.43 0.14 5.66 7.91 0.34 Argentina Apr : 0.05 4.70 0.00 0.11 4.60 0.04 May : 0.05 4.60 0.00 0.11 4.50 0.04 Brazil Apr : 0.10 6.01 0.07 3.26 2.82 0.10 May : 0.10 5.97 0.07 3.23 2.82 0.09 EU-25 Apr : 0.18 2.86 0.01 1.99 0.86 0.19 May : 0.20 2.86 0.07 2.33 0.59 0.21 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.38 6.22 2.79 9.02 0.04 0.34 May : 0.38 6.15 2.96 9.12 0.03 0.35 China Apr : 0.25 5.12 1.94 7.09 0.02 0.20 May : 0.25 5.08 2.10 7.21 0.01 0.21 India Apr : 0.13 1.06 0.75 1.79 0.02 0.14 May : 0.13 1.06 0.75 1.79 0.02 0.14 Pakistan Apr : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 May : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-410-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2003 : II : 6905 4750 11752 8275 1439 9846 21598 1802 44.0 III : 7084 4815 11991 8448 1409 9985 21976 1823 41.7 IV : 5975 5509 11587 8240 1423 9780 21367 1858 41.5 Annual : 26248 19982 46621 32749 5650 38902 85523 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I : 5836 5130 11063 8201 1302 9620 20683 1816 42.7 II*: 6550 4950 11594 8565 1390 10080 21674 1830 43.7 III*: 6700 4965 11757 8800 1360 10290 22047 1865 41.6 IV*: 6000 5440 11536 8500 1390 10010 21546 1880 41.7 Annual : Apr Proj : 25155 20380 45915 34040 5525 40045 85960 7330 170.1 May Proj : 25086 20485 45950 34066 5442 40000 85950 7391 169.8 : 2005 : I*: 5725 5050 10869 8400 1315 9830 20699 1845 43.1 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 24350 20315 45036 35125 5575 41190 86226 7495 172.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2003 : II : 78.49 42.64 59.6 60.6 73.9 11.00 III : 83.07 42.90 63.4 59.1 89.9 13.30 IV : 99.38 36.89 64.6 67.4 110.7 14.40 Annual : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.52 : 2004 : I : 82.16 44.18 73.2 62.1 114.8 14.07 II*: 85-87 50-52 74-76 62-64 84-86 18.90-19.20 III*: 80-84 46-48 71-75 63-67 87-93 17.45-18.05 IV*: 84-92 38-42 68-74 65-71 96-104 14.95-15.85 Annual : Apr Proj : 75-79 40-42 70-73 62-65 104-109 15.70-16.20 May Proj : 83-86 45-47 71-75 63-66 95-100 16.30-16.80 : 2005 : I*: 80-86 44-48 67-73 59-63 96-104 12.85-13.85 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 82-89 44-47 68-74 64-69 91-99 13.05-14.05 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-409-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2003 : 691 26349 3006 30046 2523 518 27005 64.9 2004 Proj. Apr : 519 25256 3220 28995 430 575 27990 66.5 May : 518 25187 3315 29020 465 525 28030 66.7 2005 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 525 24451 3340 28316 600 550 27166 64.1 : PORK : 2003 : 533 20003 1185 21721 1717 532 19472 51.9 2004 Proj. Apr : 532 20401 1170 22103 1825 540 19738 52.0 May : 532 20506 1130 22168 1945 460 19763 52.2 2005 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 460 20336 1090 21886 2035 460 19391 50.7 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2003 : 1238 46757 4358 52353 4247 1059 47047 118.6 2004 Proj. Apr : 1060 46051 4563 51674 2259 1124 48291 120.2 May : 1059 46086 4625 51770 2415 994 48361 120.6 2005 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 994 45172 4613 50779 2639 1019 47121 116.4 : BROILERS : 2003 : 763 32399 12 33173 4932 608 27633 81.5 2004 Proj. Apr : 608 33676 12 34296 4955 600 28741 83.8 May : 608 33701 12 34321 4600 600 29121 85.1 2005 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 600 34749 12 35361 4900 600 29861 86.4 : TURKEYS : 2003 : 333 5576 1 5911 482 354 5074 17.4 2004 Proj. Apr : 354 5453 1 5808 470 325 5012 17.0 May : 354 5371 2 5727 455 325 4946 16.8 2005 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 325 5502 1 5828 495 325 5007 16.9 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2003 : 1101 38477 16 39595 5511 965 33118 100.4 2004 Proj. Apr : 965 39608 17 40590 5545 929 34115 102.0 May : 965 39563 18 40546 5195 929 34421 103.1 2005 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 929 40741 17 41687 5495 929 35262 104.6 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2003 : 2339 85234 4374 91948 9758 2024 80165 219.0 2004 Proj. Apr : 2025 85659 4580 92264 7804 2053 82406 222.2 May : 2024 85649 4643 92316 7610 1923 82782 223.7 2005 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1923 85913 4630 92466 8134 1948 82383 221.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-410-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2004 Projected : 2005 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2002 : 2003 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 NA 15.0 Production : 7268.0 7273.0 7330.0 7391.0 NA 7495.0 Imports : 15.0 13.3 12.0 12.0 NA 12.0 Total supply : 7293.4 7296.6 7355.7 7416.7 NA 7522.0 : Use : Exports : 174.0 146.4 110.0 110.0 NA 140.0 Hatching use : 961.3 959.4 1035.0 999.3 NA 1030.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 13.7 16.0 15.0 NA 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6147.8 6177.1 6194.7 6292.4 NA 6338.0 Per capita (number) : 255.9 254.7 252.3 256.8 NA 256.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Proj 1/: 2004/05 Proj 1/ Commodity :2001/02:2002/03:-----------------:------------------ : 1/ : 1/ : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 NA 8.7 Production : 169.3 170.4 169.9 169.6 NA 171.5 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 NA 1.0 Marketings : 168.2 169.3 168.9 168.5 NA 170.6 Imports 2/ : 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 NA 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 182.1 185.5 185.1 184.7 NA 184.4 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 170.6 173.3 176.4 176.0 NA 176.1 Ending commercial stks. 2: 11.2 11.0 8.7 8.7 NA 8.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 NA 0.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 9.6 8.8 4.0 2.6 NA 3.8 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 11.03 10.63 14.90- 15.60- NA 11.85- : 15.20 15.80 NA 12.85 : Class IV : 11.22 10.05 12.05- 12.30- NA 11.00- : 12.55 12.60 NA 12.20 : All milk 5/ : 12.74 11.91 15.55- 16.20- NA 13.15- : 15.85 16.40 NA 14.15 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4: Butter : 0 29 -5 -6 NA 0 Cheese : 9 47 6 7 NA 6 Nonfat dry milk : 817 719 335 220 NA 320 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 NA 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-410-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 23-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.0 million tons (2.8%) ranging from -32.5 to 30.0 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 10 times. Reliability of May Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.8 15.0 -32.5 30.0 13 10 U.S. : 5.4 3.3 -7.2 9.8 11 12 Foreign : 2.9 13.6 -25.3 28.7 12 11 Exports : World : 4.2 4.8 -16.3 12.7 15 8 U.S. : 8.8 3.0 -10.0 7.8 13 10 Foreign : 4.8 4.0 -12.0 5.3 16 7 Domestic use : World : 1.9 9.9 -28.0 19.9 14 9 U.S. : 6.3 2.0 -6.4 4.0 15 8 Foreign : 1.8 8.8 -24.7 18.4 15 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.4 11.8 -21.5 26.9 14 9 U.S. : 16.7 3.7 -9.0 14.1 13 10 Foreign : 10.0 9.8 -17.8 16.8 12 11 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.1 24.6 -31.9 75.3 8 15 U.S. : 10.1 20.5 -35.9 70.3 11 12 Foreign : 2.3 13.3 -27.4 42.8 6 17 Exports : World : 5.9 6.2 -10.0 15.5 15 8 U.S. : 15.8 8.2 -22.8 15.3 10 13 Foreign : 13.5 7.0 -20.8 14.2 13 10 Domestic use : World : 1.7 14.1 -18.2 32.4 8 15 U.S. : 4.5 8.0 -16.6 33.0 15 8 Foreign : 1.7 10.5 -11.4 32.8 9 14 Ending stocks : World : 17.5 22.4 -71.4 48.1 13 10 U.S. : 38.2 17.9 -57.6 43.8 10 13 Foreign : 15.8 11.3 -23.9 20.5 15 8 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.7 -21.8 15.2 15 8 U.S. : 5.9 0.3 -1.0 0.5 14 9 Foreign : 2.3 7.7 -22.0 15.3 15 8 Exports : World : 8.6 1.7 -7.5 1.1 16 7 U.S. : 9.3 0.3 -1.0 0.7 14 6 Foreign : 9.2 1.5 -7.1 1.0 17 6 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.7 -19.4 5.0 19 4 U.S. : 7.5 0.2 -0.5 0.6 8 14 Foreign : 1.7 5.8 -20.0 5.2 20 3 Ending stocks : World : 11.6 4.6 -15.6 9.0 15 8 U.S. : 29.4 0.3 -0.8 0.9 11 10 Foreign : 12.4 4.6 -16.4 9.1 15 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-410-33 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.8 4.5 -11.3 12.0 10 13 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 13.6 2.7 -6.7 6.4 13 10 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 6.2 2.4 -7.5 5.4 16 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 47.4 3.0 -4.5 8.4 6 17 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.6 3.9 -13.7 11.4 14 9 U.S. : 9.3 1.4 -2.8 3.1 10 13 Foreign : 4.9 3.4 -12.2 10.5 13 10 Exports : World : 5.7 1.4 -4.2 2.7 11 12 U.S. : 20.2 1.1 -2.4 3.0 15 8 Foreign : 6.4 1.2 -3.5 1.9 10 13 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.2 -7.6 5.0 10 13 U.S. : 8.5 0.7 -1.4 1.3 12 11 Foreign : 2.7 2.0 -6.9 3.9 10 13 Ending stocks : World : 15.9 5.6 -13.8 15.4 14 9 U.S. : 34.7 1.5 -3.4 3.7 10 13 Foreign : 14.8 4.6 -13.1 12.7 14 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 23 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-410-34 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 10.5 708 -1378 2379 9 14 Exports : 17.1 306 -850 583 10 13 Domestic use : 5.1 308 -558 1095 16 7 Ending stocks : 45.8 628 -2091 1459 10 13 : SORGHUM : Production : 17.0 106 -228 171 10 13 Exports : 17.9 42 -105 97 11 12 Domestic use : 16.6 64 -162 100 11 12 Ending stocks : 51.8 71 -238 191 8 15 : BARLEY : Production : 10.1 37 -73 206 7 16 Exports : 32.2 19 -92 53 13 8 Domestic use : 10.6 38 -72 95 12 11 Ending stocks : 15.2 26 -60 78 9 14 : OATS : Production : 16.6 42 -77 231 6 17 Exports : 78.7 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 8.1 28 -39 160 8 15 Ending stocks : 16.7 19 -62 77 6 14 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.2 1583 -3696 4162 15 8 Exports : 18.7 1161 -2750 2364 12 11 Domestic use : 3.6 827 -1800 1559 14 9 Ending stocks : 35.5 83 -234 388 9 14 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.1 723 -1973 1760 14 9 Exports : 29.0 470 -1700 925 11 12 Domestic use : 3.3 434 -985 1050 17 6 Ending stocks : 36.0 517 -998 1188 12 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.8 447 -398 1319 16 6 Pork : 2.0 328 -779 826 16 6 Broilers : 1.1 253 -497 659 14 8 Turkeys : 1.7 71 -234 173 10 12 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.9 57 -83 125 17 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.7 1.0 -3.2 3.1 9 13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 23 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2003 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1980/81 thru 2002/03 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-410-35 Revised Estimates of China Corn Consumption and Ending Stocks Supply and demand estimates for corn and coarse grain published in the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report incorporate significant revisions of USDA's estimates of China's corn consumption and stocks. China's government does not publish estimates of grain stocks. Recently, however, information from China's National Bureau of Statistics' surveys of urban households (August 2002) and rural households (November 2003), official statements, and evidence from trade and price patterns indicated that revisions in stock estimates were needed. Domestic consumption and ending stocks of corn for China are revised beginning with the 1993/94 marketing year (see page 36). Historical world corn and coarse grain estimates on page 37 and 38 reflect these changes. Revised estimates for China's coarse grains, which are available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm in spreadsheet format, only reflect changes in corn use and stocks; estimates for China's other coarse grains are not revised. There are two parts to the corn consumption revisions. First, USDA lowered estimates of non-feed consumption (consisting of food, industrial, and seed use) back to 1993/94. Estimated food consumption was lowered. However, industrial use (for production of starch, alcohol, and other products) is surging. The net effect is that China's overall non-feed consumption is growing at an average annual rate of 2-3 percent a year, not the 5-8 percent previously estimated. Second, feed use is lowered from 1994/95 to 1999/2000 and then raised in subsequent years. These changes make corn feed use more consistent with USDA's meat production estimates for China, USDA's estimates of the feed use of soybean meal and other protein meals, and with structural changes that have occurred in China's livestock sector. WASDE-410-36 China corn supply and use as of April 2004 Thousand metric tons =========================================================================== : : : : : : Total : :Beginning: : : : :domestic : Ending : stocks :Production:Imports:Exports :Feed Use: use : stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/1994: 84,534 102,700 0 11,594 66,000 93,500 82,140 1994/1995: 82,140 99,280 4,287 1,333 74,000 100,600 83,774 1995/1996: 83,774 112,000 1,476 157 79,000 106,000 91,093 1996/1997: 91,093 127,470 75 3,892 83,000 111,000 103,746 1997/1998: 103,746 104,309 287 6,173 86,000 113,000 89,169 1998/1999: 89,169 132,954 262 3,338 87,000 115,500 103,547 1999/2000: 103,547 128,086 71 9,935 90,000 118,000 103,769 2000/2001: 103,769 106,000 89 7,276 91,000 119,940 82,642 2001/2002: 82,642 114,088 39 8,611 92,000 123,300 64,858 2002/2003: 64,858 121,300 29 15,244 93,000 126,500 44,443 2003/2004: 44,443 114,000 100 8,000 94,000 129,100 21,443 =========================================================================== China corn supply and use as of May 2004 Thousand metric tons =========================================================================== : : : : : : Total : :Beginning: : : : :domestic : Ending : stocks :Production:Imports:Exports :Feed Use: use : stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/1994: 84,534 102,700 0 11,594 66,000 92,900 82,740 1994/1995: 82,740 99,280 4,287 1,333 71,000 97,000 87,974 1995/1996: 87,974 112,000 1,476 157 75,000 101,200 100,093 1996/1997: 100,093 127,470 75 3,892 79,000 105,750 117,996 1997/1998: 117,996 104,309 287 6,173 82,500 109,500 106,919 1998/1999: 106,919 132,954 262 3,338 86,500 113,920 122,877 1999/2000: 122,877 128,086 71 9,935 89,500 117,300 123,799 2000/2001: 123,799 106,000 89 7,276 92,000 120,240 102,372 2001/2002: 102,372 114,088 39 8,611 94,000 123,100 84,788 2002/2003: 84,788 121,300 29 15,244 96,000 125,900 64,973 2003/2004: 64,973 114,000 100 8,000 98,000 128,600 42,473 2004/2005: 42,473 115,000 200 4,000 100,000 131,600 22,073 =========================================================================== WASDE-410-37 World corn supply and use as of April 2004 Thousand metric tons =========================================================================== : : : : : Total : : :Beginning: : : :domestic: : Ending : stocks :Production:Imports:Feed use: use : Exports : stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/1994: 163,335 476,319 56,973 342,156 511,093 58,765 128,561 1994/1995: 128,561 559,375 68,911 374,233 539,389 66,058 148,547 1995/1996: 148,547 516,658 65,702 368,747 541,640 70,334 123,565 1996/1997: 123,565 591,689 64,856 391,240 564,993 65,543 150,261 1997/1998: 150,261 574,309 63,211 404,338 577,241 63,314 147,329 1998/1999: 147,329 606,336 66,480 404,223 583,529 66,914 170,136 1999/2000: 170,136 607,255 71,724 421,945 605,706 76,888 171,685 2000/2001: 171,685 588,033 75,769 426,464 608,191 77,218 151,527 2001/2002: 151,527 598,691 74,438 434,376 622,014 76,260 128,204 2002/2003: 128,204 602,162 76,450 432,062 627,888 77,354 102,478 2003/2004: 102,478 612,510 76,399 443,806 647,356 76,122 67,632 =========================================================================== World corn supply and use as of May 2004 Thousand metric tons =========================================================================== : : : : : Total : : :Beginning: : : :domestic: : Ending : stocks :Production:Imports:Feed use: use : Exports : stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/1994: 162,538 476,069 56,973 342,156 509,601 58,765 129,006 1994/1995: 129,006 559,045 68,911 371,233 535,528 66,058 152,523 1995/1996: 152,523 515,858 65,702 364,747 536,312 70,334 132,069 1996/1997: 132,069 592,664 64,856 387,265 560,121 65,543 164,612 1997/1998: 164,612 574,119 63,211 400,813 573,684 63,314 165,047 1998/1999: 165,047 605,416 66,480 403,723 581,464 66,914 188,999 1999/2000: 188,999 606,830 71,733 421,470 604,562 76,888 191,267 2000/2001: 191,267 589,463 75,648 427,514 609,292 77,218 171,438 2001/2002: 171,438 598,889 74,413 436,486 622,358 76,272 147,969 2002/2003: 147,969 600,988 76,570 435,071 626,804 78,053 122,153 2003/2004: 122,153 614,302 77,134 448,343 649,498 77,262 86,957 2004/2005: 86,957 642,579 74,996 454,298 662,741 77,737 66,795 =========================================================================== WASDE-410-38 World coarse grain supply and use as of April 2004 Thousand metric tons =========================================================================== : : : : : Total : : :Beginning: : : :domestic: : Ending : stocks :Production:Imports:Feed use: use : Exports : stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/1994: 220,149 798,487 83,933 546,037 838,260 87,452 180,376 1994/1995: 180,376 869,597 94,304 570,005 857,897 93,433 192,076 1995/1996: 192,076 801,164 88,827 547,732 840,362 94,445 152,878 1996/1997: 152,878 907,848 91,130 576,092 874,025 93,471 186,701 1997/1998: 186,701 882,431 85,455 582,029 871,774 86,143 197,358 1998/1999: 197,358 890,810 93,558 574,260 870,960 93,778 217,208 1999/2000: 217,208 877,239 101,184 585,031 883,629 107,198 210,818 2000/2001: 210,818 859,024 103,614 586,785 881,682 105,844 188,160 2001/2002: 188,160 890,915 101,443 597,998 904,352 103,750 174,723 2002/2003: 174,723 872,278 102,713 592,162 901,313 103,230 145,688 2003/2004: 145,688 891,613 100,024 610,403 935,046 101,165 102,255 =========================================================================== World coarse grain supply and use as of May 2004 Thousand metric tons =========================================================================== : : : : : Total : : :Beginning: : : :domestic: : Ending : stocks :Production:Imports:Feed use: use : Exports : stocks =========================================================================== : 1993/1994: 219,350 798,187 83,933 546,080 836,716 87,452 180,821 1994/1995: 180,821 869,227 94,304 567,036 853,996 93,433 196,052 1995/1996: 196,052 800,904 88,827 543,767 835,574 94,445 161,382 1996/1997: 161,382 909,051 91,130 572,157 869,381 93,471 201,052 1997/1998: 201,052 881,410 85,455 578,619 867,386 86,143 215,076 1998/1999: 215,076 890,534 93,560 573,893 869,539 93,778 236,071 1999/2000: 236,071 876,979 101,193 584,021 882,517 107,151 230,533 2000/2001: 230,533 861,092 103,493 588,025 883,343 105,844 208,282 2001/2002: 208,282 891,369 101,409 600,269 905,088 103,683 194,563 2002/2003: 194,563 871,823 102,755 596,241 900,997 103,871 165,389 2003/2004: 165,389 897,323 99,819 616,138 940,816 101,386 121,896 2004/2005: 121,896 930,887 98,409 618,968 948,809 102,761 103,974 =========================================================================== ----------- End of File ------------------