WASDE-346 - January 12, 1999 NOTE: Supply and demand estimates for U.S. crops in this report reflect Crop Production 1998 Summary, Grain Stocks, Rice Stocks, and Winter Wheat and Rye Seedings reports released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service, as well as recently released NASS historical production and stocks revisions. Historical revisions to supply and demand estimates since 1992/93 will be published in Situation and Outlook reports released by the Economic Research Service. The ERS reports are available at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/field/. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1998/99 ending stocks of wheat are up 73 million bushels from last month as reduced exports and domestic use are only partially offset by a smaller crop. Estimated production is down 7 million bushels from last month because of smaller area and yield. Projected exports are 50 million bushels below last month's forecast because of increased competition and lower global imports. Projected feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels because the December 1 stocks indicated lower-than-expected use for the September-November quarter. Seed use is down 5 million bushels due to the lower- than-expected winter wheat seedings. The projected price range is tightened 5 cents on each end at $2.65 to $2.75 per bushel. Projected 1998/99 global production and use are little changed from last month. A larger crop and exports are forecast for Argentina, while smaller imports are forecast for the Philippines and Venezuela. Most of the rise in projected global ending stocks is due to higher U.S. stocks. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1998/99 ending stocks of corn are up 85 million bushels from last month, as a sharp reduction in domestic use more than offsets reduced production. The 1998 U.S. corn crop, at 9.761 billion bushels, is down 75 million bushels from last month but is still 554 million bushels above revised 1997 production. Feed and residual use for 1998/99 is down 150 million bushels because of the sharp reduction in 1997/98 feed and residual use and lower 1999 pork production. The price range for corn is down 10 cents on the high end to $1.80 to $2.10 per bushel. Projected 1998/99 global coarse grain production and use are down from last month while stocks are up, largely due to changes for the United States. RICE: The U.S. 1998/99 rice crop is estimated at 188.1 million cwt, up nearly 7.7 million cwt from last month and the second largest crop on record. Estimated area planted and harvested are both up 130,000 acres from last month. Yield is estimated at 5,669 pounds per acre, still up slightly from a month ago but down 227 pounds per acre from last year. Imports for 1998/99 are reduced because of the slower-than-expected pace of imports in the first quarter, particularly from Thailand. Forecast domestic and residual use is raised slightly to reflect increased food and seed use. Projected exports for 1998/99 are raised 2 million cwt from last month. Ending stocks are increased 4.4 million cwt. The season-average price range for 1998/99 is lowered $0.75 per cwt on each end to $8.25 to $8.75 per cwt compared to an estimated $9.64 per cwt for 1997/98. The lower price projection reflects prices through the first 5 months of the marketing year; larger domestic supplies; and the expectation that international prices are not likely to strengthen during the rest of the marketing year. World rice production and ending stocks for 1998/99 are up slightly from last month, while global consumption and exports are nearly unchanged. The increase in global production is due primarily to an increase in crops for Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Nepal, and Uruguay. This is partially offset by a reduction in Thailand's 1998/99 crop. Exports for 1998/99 are raised for India and Uruguay, but lowered for Thailand and Egypt. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1998/99 is forecast at a record 84.6 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from last month and up 1.5 million from last year. U.S. 1998/99 soybean production, reported at 2,757 million bushels, is 6 million bushels below last month based on reduced planted and harvested area. Upward revisions in production of all other oilseeds more than offset the reduced soybean crop. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 1998/99 are up 15 million bushels this month to 390 million as reductions in soybean exports and crush of 10 million bushels each more than offset the lower production. Increased South American production and export prospects this month are expected to offer added competition to both U.S. soybean and soybean meal exports. U.S. soybean oil export prospects remain on track as prospective larger South American exports are offset by increased imports of soybean oil in India and some North African and Central American countries. Domestic soybean oil consumption is increased this month based on strong year-to-date disappearance and a strong offtake trend in the past 2 years following relatively flat growth in the early 1990's. Domestic soybean meal use is unchanged this month; strong year-to-date disappearance is expected to be offset by slower growth next summer as producers cut back hog feeding. U.S. soybean prices are forecast at $5.10 to $5.60 per bushel, off 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal prices are lowered $130 to $150 per ton, off $5, while soybean oil prices are down slightly at 25 to 27 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 1998/99 is projected at a record 289.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons from last month and up 4.2 million from last year. Projected foreign production of 204.8 million tons is up 1.0 million from last month. Increases for Brazil and Argentina of 0.5 million tons each more than offset a 0.2- million-ton drop in the Indian soybean crop. Crop conditions are generally favorable as of early January for most of South America. Recent rains have increased yield prospects, but some dry areas in Argentina and extreme southern Brazil pose a minor concern. Other production changes this month include a 0.2- million-ton increase in cottonseed. Global oilseed stocks are increased slightly, mainly reflecting slightly larger U.S. and Brazilian soybean stocks and a reduction in rapeseed stocks in Canada. SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 1998/99 is projected at 12.1 million short tons, raw value, up 1 percent from last month, and up 3.8 percent from 1997/98. Projected sugar production from sugarcane is increased 130,000 tons, mainly due to higher forecast yields and projected sugar content in Florida sugarcane. The projected carryout stocks to use ratio is 18.8 percent, up from 17.5 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 1998 total meat production is raised slightly this month, reflecting slight increases in production of pork and poultry. Forecast meat production in 1999 is lowered as increases in poultry and beef production are more than offset by lower pork output. Lower farrowing intentions indicated by producers in the December 29 Hogs and Pigs report are reflected in lower production in the second half of 1999. Increased beef production forecasts reflect expected higher placements and weights in the first half of 1999. Larger chick placements increase 1999 broiler production forecasts slightly. Large meat supplies, especially pork, will continue to pressure cattle and hog prices, but prices are forecast to increase as supplies diminish in the second half of 1999. Hog and cattle price forecasts through mid-1999 are reduced this month as production continues large, but hog prices later in the year are increased to reflect the drop in pork production. Milk supply and use forecasts for 1998/99 are increased fractionally from last month. Milk price forecasts for 1998/99 are lowered slightly as a result of lower product prices in the first quarter of calendar year 1999. COTTON: U.S. 1998/99 production and ending stocks are raised substantially this month. Forecast production is raised nearly 350,000 bales, due mainly to larger crops in Texas and Georgia. The import estimate is reduced to 350,000 bales as a result of larger U.S. production and the recent decline in U.S. prices relative to foreign prices. Domestic mill use is reduced slightly to reflect textile imports' rising share of retail consumption. These changes leave ending stocks up nearly 15 percent from last month at 3.2 million bales, equal to 21.6 percent of disappearance. Higher world cotton production and lower use result in a significant increase in ending stocks. China's production estimate is raised, consistent with that government's preliminary official estimate. Larger crops in the United States and China are partially offset by decreases in Pakistan and Argentina. The reduced global consumption estimate reflects reductions for Pakistan, Russia, and the United States and increases for Indonesia and Taiwan. World trade is revised down marginally to reflect lower exports for China and Pakistan and larger exports for Argentina and Australia. Estimated world ending stocks are up over 3 percent. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: KEITH J. COLLINS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on February 10, 1999. You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. MAKE PLANS TO ATTEND AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 1999 For a fresh perspective on agricultural prospects and issues shaping your future, attend the USDA's seventy-fifth agricultural outlook forum. The meeting takes place Feb. 22 and 23, 1999, at the Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel in Arlington, Va. For program and registration details: check www.usda.gov/oce, send your postal and e-mail addresses to agforum@oce.usda.gov, call 202-314-3462, or write to Outlook Forum 1999, Room 5143 South Building, USDA, Washington, DC 20250-3812. Can't Attend? Request instructions on how to get speeches on the Internet or by e-mail. To reserve a copy of the printed proceedings or new long-term projections released at the Forum, call 1-800-999-6779. NOTE: WASDE REPORT AVAILABLE IN PDF FORMAT You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm Acrobat files can be viewed or print in their original form, page by page. GET TIMELY DISPATCHES FROM AGRICULTURE'S NEW FRONTIER New forecasts for U.S. agriculture and presentations from USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 98, held February 23-24, 1998, are waiting for you. More than 60 speakers discussed farm prospects and front-burner issues ranging from biotechnology, to organic food standards, to transportation problems. DOWNLOAD SPEECHES: www.usda.gov/oce AGRICULTURAL BASELINE PROJECTIONS TO 2007, WAOB-WOAB-98-1. 124 pages, $21.00. Available now. PROCEEDINGS OF AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 98. WAOB-YCON-98, $25.00. Speeches and illustrations presented by speakers at the February 1998 conference. Off press April. BUY BOTH REPORTS AND SAVE. Ask for WAOB-WAOB-PKG-98, $40.00. WASDE-346-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 1,869.54 2,124.65 252.51 1,834.40 290.24 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,875.23 2,165.48 248.14 1,840.78 324.69 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 1,845.32 2,169.08 240.74 1,863.75 305.34 January : 1,844.04 2,168.73 239.85 1,857.74 310.98 Wheat : 1996/97 : 582.74 688.48 125.27 577.19 111.29 1997/98 (Est.) : 609.71 721.00 118.74 584.35 136.65 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 585.77 722.38 114.69 599.41 122.97 January : 585.69 722.34 114.08 597.39 124.95 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 906.59 1,006.01 107.09 877.92 128.09 1997/98 (Est.) : 881.27 1,009.36 103.16 872.96 136.39 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 882.18 1,017.39 103.24 878.96 138.43 January : 880.54 1,016.93 102.98 875.21 141.72 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 380.21 430.15 20.15 379.29 50.86 1997/98 (Est.) : 384.26 435.12 26.24 383.47 51.65 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 377.36 429.32 22.82 385.38 43.94 January : 377.81 429.46 22.79 385.14 44.32 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 333.15 364.40 81.27 243.18 39.95 1997/98 (Est.) : 333.94 379.69 76.35 244.63 58.72 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 349.17 413.39 83.00 258.15 72.24 January : 347.10 411.29 81.60 253.27 76.42 Wheat : 1996/97 : 61.98 74.73 27.25 35.40 12.07 1997/98 (Est.) : 67.53 82.19 28.31 34.22 19.66 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 69.60 91.72 31.30 37.91 22.51 January : 69.41 91.52 29.94 37.10 24.49 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 265.71 283.08 51.52 204.55 27.01 1997/98 (Est.) : 260.43 290.37 45.25 206.97 38.15 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 273.67 314.58 48.93 216.73 48.93 January : 271.55 312.43 48.82 212.64 50.98 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 5.46 6.59 2.50 3.23 0.87 1997/98 (Est.) : 5.98 7.13 2.78 3.45 0.90 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 5.89 7.10 2.78 3.52 0.81 January : 6.14 7.33 2.84 3.54 0.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-346-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 1,536.39 1,760.25 171.24 1,591.22 250.29 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,541.30 1,785.79 171.79 1,596.15 265.98 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 1,496.15 1,755.69 157.74 1,605.59 233.10 January : 1,496.94 1,757.44 158.25 1,604.47 234.57 Wheat : 1996/97 : 520.76 613.75 98.01 541.79 99.22 1997/98 (Est.) : 542.17 638.81 90.43 550.13 116.99 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 516.17 630.66 83.39 561.50 100.46 January : 516.28 630.81 84.14 560.29 100.46 Coarse grains 5/ : 1996/97 : 640.88 722.93 55.57 673.37 101.08 1997/98 (Est.) : 620.84 718.98 57.90 665.99 98.24 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 608.51 702.81 54.31 662.23 89.50 January : 608.99 704.50 54.16 662.57 90.74 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 374.75 423.56 17.65 376.06 50.00 1997/98 (Est.) : 378.28 427.99 23.46 380.02 50.75 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 371.47 422.22 20.04 381.86 43.14 January : 371.67 422.13 19.95 381.60 43.37 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1996/97 : 89.56 124.15 26.83 88.33 37.84 1997/98 (Est.) : 91.40 129.23 26.51 88.18 41.10 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 84.20 125.33 24.59 85.83 39.32 January : 85.11 126.22 24.46 85.65 40.61 : United States 1996/97 : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Est.) : 18.79 22.78 7.50 11.35 3.89 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 13.45 17.74 4.30 10.60 2.80 January : 13.80 18.03 4.30 10.50 3.20 : Foreign 3/ 1996/97 : 70.61 102.20 19.96 77.20 33.86 1997/98 (Est.) : 72.60 106.45 19.01 76.83 37.22 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 70.74 107.59 20.29 75.23 36.52 January : 71.32 108.18 20.16 75.15 37.41 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-346-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 261.09 283.14 49.42 218.85 16.43 1997/98 (Est.) : 285.16 301.60 53.69 228.92 22.33 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 287.99 310.23 53.42 235.47 25.35 January : 289.39 311.72 54.03 235.75 26.02 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 149.06 155.69 50.32 150.23 5.74 1997/98 (Est.) : 155.76 161.50 51.44 155.35 5.61 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 161.09 166.70 54.84 160.85 5.37 January : 160.86 166.47 54.24 160.74 5.42 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 75.66 82.96 28.90 75.11 7.30 1997/98 (Est.) : 76.72 84.02 29.44 76.60 7.19 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 79.91 86.75 30.06 79.88 6.58 January : 80.25 87.45 30.06 80.12 6.95 : : United States Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 74.76 81.40 24.63 44.14 4.65 1997/98 (Est.) : 83.10 88.42 24.45 48.88 6.44 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 84.20 91.37 23.58 48.32 10.91 January : 84.62 91.75 23.48 48.12 11.51 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 33.76 35.03 6.60 28.21 0.23 1997/98 (Est.) : 37.45 39.04 8.69 30.05 0.30 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 37.05 38.85 7.86 30.75 0.24 January : 36.81 38.57 7.63 30.69 0.25 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 8.46 11.19 1.61 8.62 0.96 1997/98 (Est.) : 9.62 12.23 2.13 9.11 0.99 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 9.61 12.20 1.98 9.20 1.03 January : 9.59 12.17 1.99 9.23 0.95 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 186.34 201.74 24.78 174.72 11.78 1997/98 (Est.) : 202.07 213.18 29.24 180.04 15.88 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 203.79 218.86 29.85 187.15 14.44 January : 204.78 219.97 30.55 187.63 14.52 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 115.30 120.66 43.72 122.03 5.52 1997/98 (Est.) : 118.31 122.47 42.75 125.30 5.31 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 124.04 127.85 46.98 130.10 5.13 January : 124.05 127.90 46.61 130.05 5.18 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 67.19 71.77 27.29 66.49 6.34 1997/98 (Est.) : 67.10 71.79 27.31 67.49 6.20 1998/99 (Proj.) : December : 70.29 74.55 28.08 70.68 5.56 January : 70.67 75.28 28.07 70.88 6.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-346-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 75.1 70.4 66.2 65.9 Harvested : 62.8 62.8 59.1 59.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 36.3 39.5 43.3 43.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 376 444 722 722 Production : 2,277 2,481 2,557 2,550 Imports : 92 95 90 90 Supply, total : 2,746 3,020 3,370 3,363 Food : 891 917 925 925 Seed : 102 93 93 88 Feed and residual : 308 248 375 350 Domestic, total : 1,301 1,257 1,393 1,363 Exports : 1,001 1,040 1,150 1,100 Use, total : 2,302 2,297 2,543 2,463 Ending stocks : 444 722 827 900 CCC inventory : 93 94 95 95 Free stocks : 351 628 732 805 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.30 3.38 2.60- 2.80 2.65- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1997/98 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,098 491 472 332 88 2,481 Supply, total 3/ : 1,242 714 517 399 148 3,020 Domestic use : 577 254 257 104 65 1,257 Exports : 358 240 180 205 57 1,040 Use, total : 935 494 437 309 122 2,297 Ending stocks, total : 307 220 80 90 26 722 : 1998/99 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 307 220 80 90 26 722 Production : 1,182 487 443 298 141 2,550 Supply, total 3/ : 1,490 762 523 396 193 3,363 Domestic use : 604 264 298 111 87 1,363 Exports : 493 280 75 215 37 1,100 Use, total : 1,096 544 373 326 124 2,463 Ending stocks, total : January : 393 217 150 70 69 900 December : 370 219 118 55 65 827 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-346-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 104.1 101.4 101.9 101.1 Harvested : 93.8 90.8 90.4 89.0 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.83 2.87 3.02 3.05 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 14.4 27.0 38.2 38.1 Production : 265.5 260.2 273.3 271.2 Imports : 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 282.7 290.0 314.1 312.0 Feed and residual : 155.0 154.8 162.3 158.5 Food, seed & industrial : 49.2 51.8 54.0 53.8 Domestic, total : 204.2 206.6 216.3 212.2 Exports : 51.5 45.3 48.9 48.8 Use, total : 255.7 251.9 265.2 261.1 Ending stocks, total : 27.0 38.1 48.9 51.0 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 26.9 38.0 48.8 50.8 Outstanding loans : 5.0 8.5 8.8 8.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 79.5 80.8 80.2 Harvested : 72.6 72.7 73.8 72.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 127.1 126.7 133.3 134.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 426 883 1,308 1,308 Production : 9,233 9,207 9,836 9,761 Imports : 13 9 10 10 Supply, total : 9,672 10,099 11,154 11,079 Feed and residual : 5,302 5,505 5,850 5,700 Food, seed & industrial : 1,692 1,782 1,880 1,870 Domestic, total : 6,994 7,287 7,730 7,570 Exports : 1,795 1,504 1,700 1,700 Use, total : 8,789 8,791 9,430 9,270 Ending stocks, total : 883 1,308 1,724 1,809 CCC inventory : 2 4 4 5 Free stocks : 881 1,304 1,720 1,804 Outstanding loans : 179 310 325 325 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.71 2.43 1.80- 2.20 1.80- 2.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-346-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 13.1 10.1 9.7 9.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 11.8 9.2 7.8 7.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.3 69.2 66.5 67.3 Beginning stocks : 18 47 49 49 Production : 795 634 521 520 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 814 681 570 569 Feed : 516 365 275 275 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 45 45 Total domestic : 561 420 320 320 Exports : 205 212 195 195 Use, total : 766 632 515 515 Ending stocks, total : 47 49 55 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.34 2.21 1.65- 2.05 1.60- 1.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.2 6.0 5.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.5 58.1 59.9 60.1 Beginning stocks : 100 109 120 119 Production : 392 360 358 352 Imports : 37 40 30 30 Supply, total : 529 510 508 502 Feed : 217 144 185 185 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 389 316 357 357 Exports : 31 74 35 30 Use, total : 419 390 392 387 Ending stocks, total : 109 119 116 115 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.74 2.38 1.80- 2.10 1.85- 2.05 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.6 5.1 4.9 4.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.7 59.5 60.5 60.4 Beginning stocks : 66 67 74 74 Production : 153 167 170 167 Imports : 97 98 100 100 Supply, total : 317 332 344 341 Feed : 153 161 165 165 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 95 95 Total domestic : 248 256 260 260 Exports : 3 2 2 2 Use, total : 250 258 262 262 Ending stocks, total : 67 74 82 79 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.96 1.60 1.10- 1.20 1.05- 1.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-346-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.82 3.13 3.22 3.35 Harvested : 2.80 3.10 3.19 3.32 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,120 5,897 5,660 5,669 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.0 27.2 27.7 27.7 Production : 171.6 183.0 180.4 188.1 Imports : 10.0 9.2 9.5 9.0 Supply, total : 206.6 219.4 217.5 224.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 101.0 106.5 107.9 108.7 Exports, total 4/ : 78.4 85.2 85.0 87.0 Rough : 12.6 26.1 24.0 24.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 65.9 59.1 61.0 63.0 Use, total : 179.4 191.7 192.9 195.7 Ending stocks : 27.2 27.7 24.6 29.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.96 9.64 9.00- 9.50 8.25- 8.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 1.97 2.31 2.61 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,777 5,391 5,430 Beginning stocks : 10.1 14.1 14.3 14.3 Production : 113.6 124.5 132.4 141.6 Supply, total 6/ : 132.5 146.6 155.0 163.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 61.9 62.5 70.9 71.6 Exports 7/ : 56.5 69.7 70.0 72.5 Use, total : 118.4 132.2 140.9 144.1 Ending stocks : 14.1 14.3 14.1 19.7 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.84 0.79 0.71 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,926 7,369 6,548 Beginning stocks : 14.3 12.1 12.3 12.3 Production : 58.0 58.5 48.0 46.4 Supply, total 6/ : 73.1 71.8 61.5 59.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.1 44.0 37.0 37.1 Exports 7/ : 22.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 Use, total : 61.0 59.5 52.0 51.6 Ending stocks : 12.1 12.3 9.5 8.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0; 1998/99-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-346-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 64.2 70.0 72.7 72.4 Harvested : 63.3 69.1 71.6 70.8 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 37.6 38.9 38.6 38.9 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 183 132 200 200 Production : 2,380 2,689 2,763 2,757 Imports : 9 5 6 6 Supply, total : 2,573 2,826 2,968 2,963 Crushings : 1,436 1,597 1,605 1,595 Exports : 882 870 840 830 Seed : 82 86 86 87 Residual : 41 72 62 61 Use, total : 2,441 2,626 2,593 2,573 Ending stocks : 132 200 375 390 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.35 6.47 5.15- 5.75 5.10 - 5.60 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,382 1,382 Production : 15,752 18,143 _3/ 18,135 18,070 Imports : 53 60 58 58 Supply, total : 17,821 19,724 19,575 19,510 Domestic : 14,263 15,264 15,350 15,450 Exports : 2,037 3,077 2,700 2,700 Use, total : 16,300 18,341 18,050 18,150 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,382 1,525 1,360 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.50 25.84 25.00- 25.00- : 27.50 27.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 212 210 218 218 Production : 34,210 38,171 _3/ 38,057 37,807 Imports : 102 55 50 50 Supply, total : 34,524 38,436 38,325 38,075 Domestic : 27,320 28,888 29,600 29,600 Exports : 6,994 9,330 8,500 8,250 Use, total : 34,314 38,218 38,100 37,850 Ending stocks : 210 218 225 225 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 270.90 185.54 135.00- 130.00- : 155.00 150.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,610 million bushels. WASDE-346-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :====================== : : Estimate : December January ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,488 1,679 1,679 Production 2/3/ : 7,205 8,020 8,127 8,257 Beet sugar : 4,013 4,389 4,500 4,500 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,192 3,631 3,627 3,757 Imports 2/ : 2,774 2,163 2,178 2,178 TRQ 5/ : 2,277 1,729 1,733 1,733 Other 6/ : 497 434 445 445 Total supply : 11,471 11,671 11,984 12,114 : Exports 2/7/ : 211 179 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,742 9,815 10,025 10,025 Domestic food use : 9,564 9,672 9,855 9,855 Other 8/ : 178 143 170 170 Miscellaneous 9/ : 30 (2) 0 0 Use, total : 9,983 9,992 10,200 10,200 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,488 1,679 1,784 1,914 : Stocks to use ratio : 14.9 16.8 17.5 18.8 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1996/97 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1998/99 are based on January Crop Production report and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1997/98 (projected 1998/99): FL 1,924 (2,075); HI 350 (340); LA 1,262 (1,250); TX 80 (85); PR 16 (7). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1998/99 TRQ includes a forecast 75,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-346-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.65 13.90 12.87 13.42 Harvested : 12.89 13.41 10.39 10.72 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 673 621 618 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.61 3.97 3.89 3.89 Production : 18.94 18.79 13.45 13.80 Imports : 0.40 0.01 0.40 0.35 Supply, total : 21.95 22.78 17.74 18.03 Domestic use : 11.13 11.35 10.60 10.50 Exports : 6.87 7.50 4.30 4.30 Use, total : 17.99 18.85 14.90 14.80 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.01 0.04 0.04 0.03 Ending stocks : 3.97 3.89 2.80 3.20 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 69.3 65.2 65.8 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. 5/ Weighted average for August-November 1998. WASDE-346-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 105.75 582.74 120.03 96.63 577.19 125.27 111.29 United States : 10.23 61.98 2.51 8.37 35.40 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 95.51 520.76 117.51 88.26 541.79 98.01 99.22 Major exporters 4/ : 19.47 167.91 23.22 43.89 96.42 87.18 27.00 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.03 0.45 5.08 10.20 0.80 Australia : 1.48 23.70 0.05 1.18 3.60 19.23 2.40 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.24 4.39 8.22 19.50 9.05 EU-15 : 11.12 98.51 22.90 37.87 79.51 38.26 14.76 Major importers 5/ : 37.36 173.26 37.08 15.86 205.87 3.03 38.80 Brazil : 0.22 3.20 5.57 0.05 8.41 0.00 0.58 China : 24.25 110.57 2.69 3.40 112.39 0.96 24.17 East. Europe : 7.13 26.13 5.15 10.60 31.28 1.57 5.55 N. Africa : 2.00 15.98 14.39 0.36 27.53 0.09 4.76 Pakistan : 2.90 16.91 3.01 0.45 20.12 0.00 2.70 Selected other : India : 12.00 62.10 1.45 0.35 66.84 1.70 7.00 FSU-12 6/ : 10.86 63.30 6.64 22.50 70.81 3.52 6.47 Russia : 2.95 34.90 2.55 14.34 38.07 0.67 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.73 7.70 0.01 1.50 5.12 2.25 1.07 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 111.29 609.71 118.42 101.42 584.35 118.74 136.65 United States : 12.07 67.53 2.58 6.75 34.22 28.31 19.66 Total foreign : 99.22 542.17 115.84 94.67 550.13 90.43 116.99 Major exporters 4/ : 27.00 152.71 21.50 46.23 98.42 79.45 23.34 Argentina : 0.80 14.80 0.02 0.35 4.70 10.50 0.42 Australia : 2.40 19.42 0.03 2.60 5.00 15.50 1.34 Canada : 9.05 24.28 0.20 3.37 7.37 20.17 5.99 EU-15 : 14.76 94.21 21.25 39.92 81.36 33.28 15.59 Major importers 5/ : 38.80 187.51 37.19 17.89 209.52 4.38 49.59 Brazil : 0.58 2.40 5.70 0.00 8.13 0.00 0.54 China : 24.17 123.30 1.90 5.00 114.86 1.14 33.37 East. Europe : 5.55 34.41 1.86 11.33 32.02 2.75 7.05 N. Africa : 4.76 10.18 17.40 0.31 28.05 0.09 4.20 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 4.13 0.30 20.26 0.01 3.21 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.28 1.73 0.35 68.41 0.00 9.60 FSU-12 6/ : 6.47 80.51 6.09 24.00 72.66 3.80 16.60 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.70 16.00 39.61 0.90 8.04 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.95 0.00 1.20 4.80 1.90 3.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-346-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 136.61 585.77 114.54 109.49 599.41 114.69 122.97 January : 136.65 585.69 114.15 108.36 597.39 114.08 124.95 United States : December : 19.66 69.60 2.45 10.21 37.91 31.30 22.51 January : 19.66 69.41 2.45 9.53 37.10 29.94 24.49 Total foreign : December : 116.95 516.17 112.09 99.28 561.50 83.39 100.46 January : 116.99 516.28 111.70 98.83 560.29 84.14 100.46 Major exporters 4/ : December : 23.34 158.76 21.07 51.98 104.46 71.11 27.60 January : 23.34 159.06 21.07 51.98 104.30 71.61 27.56 Argentina Dec : 0.42 10.00 0.03 0.10 4.60 5.50 0.35 Jan : 0.42 10.30 0.03 0.10 4.45 6.00 0.30 Australia Dec : 1.34 21.00 0.03 3.00 5.30 14.00 3.07 Jan : 1.34 21.00 0.03 3.00 5.30 14.00 3.07 Canada Dec : 5.99 24.40 0.20 4.20 8.20 15.50 6.89 Jan : 5.99 24.40 0.20 4.20 8.20 15.50 6.89 EU-15 Dec : 15.59 103.36 20.81 44.68 86.36 36.11 17.30 Jan : 15.59 103.36 20.81 44.68 86.36 36.11 17.30 Major importers 5/ : December : 49.59 178.78 33.26 19.06 213.98 4.04 43.62 January : 49.59 178.78 33.47 19.06 214.19 4.04 43.62 Brazil Dec : 0.54 2.20 6.10 0.20 8.30 0.00 0.54 Jan : 0.54 2.20 6.10 0.20 8.30 0.00 0.54 China Dec : 33.37 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 1.00 28.37 Jan : 33.37 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 1.00 28.37 East. Europe Dec : 7.05 33.87 1.36 12.30 33.77 2.55 5.96 Jan : 7.05 33.87 1.37 12.30 33.78 2.55 5.96 N. Africa Dec : 4.20 13.41 15.60 0.31 28.56 0.09 4.56 Jan : 4.20 13.41 15.60 0.31 28.56 0.09 4.56 Pakistan Dec : 3.21 18.70 2.00 0.30 21.05 0.00 2.86 Jan : 3.21 18.70 2.20 0.30 21.25 0.00 2.86 Selected other : India Dec : 9.60 66.05 1.65 0.35 69.00 0.00 8.30 Jan : 9.60 66.05 1.65 0.35 69.00 0.00 8.30 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 16.60 56.90 7.58 21.02 70.89 3.90 6.29 Jan : 16.60 56.90 7.58 20.77 70.64 4.15 6.29 Russia Dec : 8.04 27.00 4.70 13.70 37.70 0.75 1.29 Jan : 8.04 27.00 4.70 13.45 37.45 1.00 1.29 Kazakstan Dec : 3.32 5.00 0.00 1.30 4.90 1.80 1.62 Jan : 3.32 5.00 0.00 1.30 4.90 1.80 1.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-346-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 99.42 906.59 103.73 575.17 877.92 107.09 128.09 United States : 14.44 265.71 2.93 155.09 204.55 51.52 27.01 Total foreign : 84.98 640.88 100.80 420.08 673.37 55.57 101.08 Major exporters 4/ : 6.48 66.85 1.26 32.85 41.91 23.60 9.07 Argentina : 0.71 18.93 0.08 4.79 6.78 11.84 1.11 Australia : 0.66 10.15 0.01 4.50 5.74 4.41 0.67 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 19.14 21.77 5.40 4.85 Major importers 5/ : 25.18 197.43 64.70 171.89 234.43 24.85 28.03 EU-15 : 9.83 103.75 16.90 72.58 95.52 22.79 12.17 East. Europe : 5.17 49.96 1.85 38.22 49.69 1.93 5.37 Japan : 2.18 0.24 20.66 16.44 20.85 0.00 2.22 Mexico : 3.43 26.49 5.37 15.87 31.55 0.04 3.70 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.31 3.99 13.41 18.33 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.49 8.80 7.03 9.18 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 35.70 141.32 2.11 89.55 128.59 4.00 46.54 FSU-12 6/ : 4.93 52.15 1.71 33.54 53.91 1.40 3.47 Russia : 1.49 31.65 0.83 19.92 32.64 0.35 0.98 Ukraine : 1.74 9.51 0.03 5.70 10.19 0.28 0.81 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 128.09 881.27 100.43 579.29 872.96 103.16 136.39 United States : 27.01 260.43 2.94 154.97 206.97 45.25 38.15 Total foreign : 101.08 620.84 97.49 424.32 665.99 57.90 98.24 Major exporters 4/ : 9.07 67.31 2.05 35.58 45.19 22.84 10.40 Argentina : 1.11 24.67 0.01 6.44 8.62 14.76 2.41 Australia : 0.67 9.47 0.01 4.40 5.63 3.09 1.44 Canada : 4.85 25.12 1.52 20.38 23.24 3.75 4.50 Major importers 5/ : 28.03 206.95 63.96 172.38 234.22 24.25 40.47 EU-15 : 12.17 109.39 17.42 73.63 96.12 20.08 22.78 East. Europe : 5.37 58.58 1.07 42.01 53.38 3.10 8.55 Japan : 2.22 0.20 21.03 16.28 20.69 0.00 2.76 Mexico : 3.70 23.16 7.93 16.49 31.73 0.50 2.56 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.20 3.29 11.03 16.11 0.57 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 7.60 6.06 8.31 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 46.54 114.65 1.81 93.83 129.59 6.20 27.20 FSU-12 6/ : 3.47 67.87 1.49 37.64 58.18 3.04 11.62 Russia : 0.98 40.85 0.61 20.99 33.84 1.55 7.05 Ukraine : 0.81 15.35 0.00 8.23 12.73 0.98 2.46 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-346-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 135.21 882.18 101.02 579.97 878.96 103.24 138.43 January : 136.39 880.54 100.92 576.48 875.21 102.98 141.72 United States : December : 38.17 273.67 2.73 162.46 216.73 48.93 48.93 January : 38.15 271.55 2.73 158.63 212.64 48.82 50.98 Total foreign : December : 97.03 608.51 98.28 417.51 662.23 54.31 89.50 January : 98.24 608.99 98.18 417.86 662.57 54.16 90.74 Major exporters 4/ : December : 10.40 61.65 1.19 35.93 45.66 18.64 8.94 January : 10.40 61.65 1.19 35.93 45.66 18.64 8.94 Argentina Dec : 2.41 17.49 0.01 6.37 8.48 10.16 1.28 Jan : 2.41 17.49 0.01 6.37 8.48 10.16 1.28 Australia Dec : 1.44 8.11 0.01 4.46 5.64 2.93 0.99 Jan : 1.44 8.11 0.01 4.46 5.64 2.93 0.99 Canada Dec : 4.50 26.50 0.76 20.74 23.58 3.55 4.63 Jan : 4.50 26.50 0.76 20.74 23.58 3.55 4.63 Major importers 5/ : December : 38.95 197.51 61.56 170.42 232.41 28.11 37.49 January : 40.47 197.58 61.46 170.26 232.35 28.11 39.04 EU-15 Dec : 22.76 104.15 18.40 74.00 96.01 25.46 23.84 Jan : 22.78 104.15 18.40 74.00 96.01 25.46 23.86 East. Europe Dec : 7.19 50.28 0.74 40.09 51.13 2.25 4.82 Jan : 8.55 50.36 0.74 39.93 51.18 2.25 6.21 Japan Dec : 2.65 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.48 Jan : 2.76 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.59 Mexico Dec : 2.55 25.10 7.17 16.53 32.32 0.10 2.40 Jan : 2.56 25.10 7.07 16.53 32.22 0.10 2.41 Southeast Asia Dec : 1.04 15.25 2.75 11.74 17.30 0.30 1.44 Jan : 1.04 15.25 2.75 11.74 17.30 0.30 1.44 South Korea Dec : 0.50 0.49 6.80 5.10 7.31 0.00 0.49 Jan : 0.50 0.49 6.80 5.10 7.31 0.00 0.49 Selected other : China Dec : 27.20 135.65 2.40 95.40 130.85 4.10 30.30 Jan : 27.20 135.65 2.40 95.40 130.85 4.10 30.30 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 11.38 39.81 2.63 27.91 48.72 1.33 3.78 Jan : 11.62 39.81 2.63 28.46 49.07 1.18 3.82 Russia Dec : 7.06 20.90 1.75 15.60 28.50 0.20 1.01 Jan : 7.05 20.90 1.75 15.60 28.50 0.20 1.00 Ukraine Dec : 2.56 10.30 0.00 5.70 10.50 0.80 1.56 Jan : 2.46 10.30 0.00 5.70 10.50 0.65 1.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-346-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 69.89 590.39 71.06 392.38 567.79 73.31 92.49 United States : 10.82 234.52 0.34 134.67 177.64 45.60 22.43 Total foreign : 59.07 355.88 70.72 257.71 390.15 27.71 70.06 Major exporters 4/ : 2.60 24.51 0.11 6.78 11.27 12.75 3.20 Argentina : 0.40 15.50 0.00 2.78 4.32 10.83 0.75 South Africa : 2.20 9.01 0.11 4.00 6.95 1.92 2.45 Major importers 5/ : 12.62 94.38 48.28 92.67 131.78 9.73 13.78 EU-15 : 2.33 34.79 10.17 27.50 35.96 8.06 3.28 Japan : 1.07 0.00 15.96 12.00 16.10 0.00 0.93 Mexico : 2.60 18.92 3.14 7.10 22.17 0.04 2.45 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.11 3.99 13.22 18.12 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.07 8.34 6.64 8.30 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 34.70 127.47 0.08 86.00 113.35 3.89 45.00 FSU-12 6/ : 1.69 4.73 0.43 3.47 5.76 0.30 0.80 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.19 0.44 1.29 0.00 0.16 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 92.49 573.98 71.69 406.00 579.53 73.16 86.94 United States : 22.43 233.86 0.22 139.83 185.09 38.21 33.22 Total foreign : 70.06 340.11 71.47 266.18 394.44 34.94 53.72 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 26.91 0.35 7.90 12.55 14.25 3.66 Argentina : 0.75 19.36 0.00 3.90 5.50 13.00 1.61 South Africa : 2.45 7.55 0.35 4.00 7.05 1.25 2.05 Major importers 5/ : 13.78 100.96 48.12 94.26 132.58 13.32 16.95 EU-15 : 3.28 38.60 11.20 30.83 38.78 9.74 4.56 Japan : 0.93 0.00 16.42 11.80 15.90 0.00 1.45 Mexico : 2.45 17.00 4.37 7.07 21.82 0.50 1.50 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.00 3.29 10.84 15.91 0.57 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.53 6.05 7.98 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 45.00 104.30 0.33 91.00 117.45 6.17 26.00 FSU-12 6/ : 0.80 10.46 0.43 6.86 9.12 0.60 1.96 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.19 1.55 2.49 0.00 0.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-346-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 85.80 597.04 69.56 413.31 588.13 70.93 94.71 January : 86.94 594.73 69.56 409.15 583.61 70.78 98.06 United States : December : 33.22 249.85 0.25 148.60 196.35 43.18 43.79 January : 33.22 247.94 0.25 144.79 192.29 43.18 45.95 Total foreign : December : 52.58 347.19 69.31 264.72 391.78 27.75 50.92 January : 53.72 346.79 69.31 264.37 391.33 27.60 52.11 Major exporters 4/ : December : 3.66 22.50 0.25 7.90 12.75 11.00 2.66 January : 3.66 22.50 0.25 7.90 12.75 11.00 2.66 Argentina Dec : 1.61 13.50 0.00 3.90 5.50 9.00 0.61 Jan : 1.61 13.50 0.00 3.90 5.50 9.00 0.61 South Africa Dec : 2.05 9.00 0.25 4.00 7.25 2.00 2.05 Jan : 2.05 9.00 0.25 4.00 7.25 2.00 2.05 Major importers 5/ : December : 15.59 92.23 45.68 91.82 130.24 11.71 11.55 January : 16.95 92.43 45.68 91.62 130.24 11.71 13.11 EU-15 Dec : 4.56 34.06 11.57 30.52 38.01 9.54 2.64 Jan : 4.56 34.06 11.57 30.52 38.01 9.54 2.64 Japan Dec : 1.45 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.26 Jan : 1.45 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.26 Mexico Dec : 1.50 18.00 4.25 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Jan : 1.50 18.00 4.25 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Southeast Asia Dec : 1.04 15.05 2.75 11.55 17.10 0.30 1.44 Jan : 1.04 15.05 2.75 11.55 17.10 0.30 1.44 South Korea Dec : 0.50 0.09 6.50 4.90 6.60 0.00 0.49 Jan : 0.50 0.09 6.50 4.90 6.60 0.00 0.49 Selected other : China Dec : 26.00 124.00 0.25 93.00 117.25 4.00 29.00 Jan : 26.00 124.00 0.25 93.00 117.25 4.00 29.00 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 2.16 4.89 0.89 4.13 6.29 0.40 1.25 Jan : 1.96 4.89 0.89 4.13 6.29 0.25 1.20 Russia Dec : 0.56 1.00 0.65 1.25 2.05 0.00 0.16 Jan : 0.56 1.00 0.65 1.25 2.05 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-346-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 3/ : 49.94 380.21 16.98 379.29 20.15 50.86 United States : 0.81 5.46 0.32 3.23 2.50 0.87 Total foreign : 49.13 374.75 16.67 376.06 17.65 50.00 Major exporters 4/ : 12.37 117.28 0.00 106.54 12.46 10.65 Thailand : 0.85 13.66 0.00 8.55 5.26 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.74 3.27 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.72 51.62 7.49 59.71 1.33 5.79 Indonesia : 2.62 32.08 0.81 33.98 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China : 21.73 136.57 0.33 132.13 0.94 25.56 Japan : 2.48 9.41 0.50 9.25 0.10 3.05 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 3/ : 50.86 384.26 23.68 383.47 26.24 51.65 United States : 0.87 5.98 0.29 3.45 2.78 0.90 Total foreign : 50.00 378.28 23.39 380.02 23.46 50.75 Major exporters 4/ : 10.65 120.37 0.00 105.07 15.44 10.52 Thailand : 0.71 15.05 0.00 8.60 6.37 0.79 Vietnam : 0.00 18.87 0.00 15.10 3.78 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.79 48.20 13.11 61.03 1.22 4.85 Indonesia : 1.53 30.23 5.90 35.46 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 25.56 140.49 0.25 135.85 3.50 26.95 Japan : 3.05 9.12 0.60 9.20 0.60 2.97 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 51.95 377.36 20.84 385.38 22.82 43.94 January : 51.65 377.81 21.13 385.14 22.79 44.32 United States : December : 0.90 5.89 0.30 3.52 2.78 0.81 January : 0.90 6.14 0.29 3.54 2.84 0.95 Total foreign : December : 51.05 371.47 20.54 381.86 20.04 43.14 January : 50.75 371.67 20.85 381.60 19.95 43.37 Major exporters 4/ : December : 10.61 119.05 0.00 106.85 13.90 8.91 January : 10.52 118.40 0.00 106.30 13.85 8.77 Thailand Dec : 0.85 14.95 0.00 9.00 5.80 1.00 Jan : 0.79 14.30 0.00 8.70 5.50 0.89 Vietnam Dec : 0.00 18.50 0.00 15.00 3.50 0.00 Jan : 0.00 18.50 0.00 15.00 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : December : 5.22 52.48 9.74 61.00 1.21 5.24 January : 4.85 52.85 9.77 61.19 1.21 5.07 Indonesia Dec : 2.18 33.00 2.00 35.20 0.00 1.98 Jan : 2.20 33.00 2.00 35.20 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Dec : 26.95 133.00 0.50 137.00 1.25 22.20 Jan : 26.95 133.00 0.30 137.00 1.25 22.00 Japan Dec : 2.82 7.90 0.70 9.15 0.40 1.87 Jan : 2.97 8.10 0.70 9.20 0.40 2.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-346-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 17.51 131.67 36.39 115.47 135.74 36.96 12.88 United States : 4.99 64.78 0.24 39.08 42.43 24.00 3.59 Total foreign : 12.51 66.89 36.15 76.39 93.31 12.96 9.29 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.77 1.20 31.49 33.86 11.32 6.80 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.56 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.80 0.90 19.90 21.68 8.42 3.40 Major importers 4/ : 1.76 16.40 27.43 31.32 43.24 0.56 1.80 EU-15 : 0.82 1.14 15.31 14.67 16.09 0.35 0.84 Japan : 0.55 0.15 5.04 3.81 5.11 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.69 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 12.88 155.80 40.22 126.84 149.51 40.20 19.19 United States : 3.59 73.18 0.14 43.46 47.78 23.69 5.44 Total foreign : 9.29 82.63 40.08 83.38 101.74 16.51 13.75 Major exporters 3/ : 6.80 52.50 2.70 33.50 36.45 14.12 11.43 Argentina : 3.40 18.70 1.00 13.00 13.85 3.17 6.08 Brazil : 3.40 31.00 1.70 20.00 22.00 8.75 5.35 Major importers 4/ : 1.80 18.35 29.90 35.04 47.43 0.94 1.68 EU-15 : 0.84 1.57 16.87 16.34 17.71 0.75 0.82 Japan : 0.64 0.15 4.87 3.72 5.02 0.00 0.63 China : 0.00 14.73 2.94 10.40 17.50 0.17 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 19.15 154.13 39.02 129.28 151.12 38.93 22.24 January : 19.19 154.76 38.90 129.37 151.17 38.81 22.87 United States : December : 5.44 75.19 0.16 43.68 47.72 22.86 10.21 January : 5.44 75.03 0.16 43.41 47.43 22.59 10.61 Total foreign : December : 13.71 78.94 38.85 85.60 103.40 16.07 12.03 January : 13.75 79.73 38.74 85.96 103.75 16.22 12.26 Major exporters 3/ : December : 11.43 49.10 1.40 35.30 38.25 13.90 9.78 January : 11.43 50.10 1.40 36.00 38.95 14.05 9.93 Argentina Dec : 6.08 17.00 0.40 14.20 15.15 3.20 5.13 Jan : 6.08 17.50 0.40 14.70 15.65 3.20 5.13 Brazil Dec : 5.35 29.00 1.00 20.50 22.40 8.30 4.65 Jan : 5.35 29.50 1.00 20.70 22.60 8.45 4.80 Major importers 4/ : December : 1.68 17.45 29.53 34.38 46.29 0.70 1.66 January : 1.68 17.45 29.53 34.38 46.29 0.70 1.66 EU-15 Dec : 0.82 1.74 15.80 15.70 16.95 0.52 0.88 Jan : 0.82 1.74 15.80 15.70 16.95 0.52 0.88 Japan Dec : 0.63 0.18 4.70 3.65 4.96 0.00 0.54 Jan : 0.63 0.18 4.70 3.65 4.96 0.00 0.54 China Dec : 0.00 13.50 3.60 10.13 16.92 0.18 0.00 Jan : 0.00 13.50 3.60 10.13 16.92 0.18 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-346-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 4.31 91.78 34.35 92.70 33.96 3.78 United States : 0.19 31.04 0.09 24.78 6.34 0.19 Total foreign : 4.12 60.75 34.26 67.92 27.61 3.59 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.65 0.20 6.36 21.79 1.08 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.72 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.84 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.58 2.45 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 19.63 23.32 38.63 4.54 1.22 EU-15 : 1.12 11.62 14.71 22.07 4.49 0.90 China : 0.00 6.95 3.60 10.53 0.02 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.78 100.74 36.46 100.29 36.94 3.76 United States : 0.19 34.63 0.05 26.21 8.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.59 66.12 36.40 74.08 28.47 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 30.12 0.10 7.24 22.66 1.41 Argentina : 0.25 10.60 0.00 0.39 9.86 0.60 Brazil : 0.84 15.73 0.10 5.55 10.30 0.81 India : 0.00 3.80 0.00 1.30 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.22 22.16 24.83 42.63 4.49 1.08 EU-15 : 0.90 12.75 16.34 24.60 4.46 0.92 China : 0.00 8.31 4.07 12.36 0.02 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 3.76 102.39 38.38 102.22 38.59 3.71 January : 3.76 102.43 38.57 102.45 38.55 3.76 United States : December : 0.20 34.52 0.05 26.85 7.71 0.20 January : 0.20 34.30 0.05 26.85 7.48 0.20 Total foreign : December : 3.56 67.87 38.33 75.37 30.88 3.51 January : 3.56 68.13 38.52 75.60 31.06 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : December : 1.41 31.75 0.10 7.01 24.85 1.40 January : 1.41 32.10 0.10 7.04 25.13 1.44 Argentina Dec : 0.60 11.57 0.00 0.40 11.20 0.57 Jan : 0.60 11.98 0.00 0.40 11.58 0.60 Brazil Dec : 0.81 16.12 0.10 5.75 10.45 0.83 Jan : 0.81 16.28 0.10 5.75 10.60 0.84 India Dec : 0.00 4.06 0.00 0.86 3.20 0.00 Jan : 0.00 3.84 0.00 0.89 2.95 0.00 Major importers 4/ : December : 1.08 21.48 25.77 42.77 4.44 1.13 January : 1.08 21.48 25.96 42.96 4.44 1.13 EU-15 Dec : 0.92 12.22 16.95 24.82 4.29 0.99 Jan : 0.92 12.22 17.14 25.01 4.29 0.99 China Dec : 0.00 8.10 4.40 12.49 0.01 0.00 Jan : 0.00 8.10 4.40 12.49 0.01 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-346-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 2.64 20.67 5.88 20.71 5.92 2.55 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.47 0.92 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 13.52 5.85 14.24 5.00 1.86 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.27 0.64 4.50 4.40 0.85 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.72 0.18 2.60 1.29 0.38 EU-15 : 0.20 2.63 0.46 1.80 1.32 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 2.05 1.93 3.80 0.08 0.47 China : 0.35 1.39 1.67 2.89 0.08 0.45 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.02 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.55 22.95 6.80 22.87 6.79 2.64 United States : 0.69 8.23 0.03 6.92 1.40 0.63 Total foreign : 1.86 14.72 6.78 15.95 5.40 2.01 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.93 0.69 4.67 4.88 0.92 Argentina : 0.30 2.25 0.00 0.10 2.11 0.34 Brazil : 0.38 3.74 0.20 2.72 1.18 0.42 EU-15 : 0.17 2.94 0.49 1.84 1.60 0.16 Major importers 4/ : 0.47 2.52 2.11 4.47 0.04 0.60 China : 0.45 1.66 1.65 3.15 0.04 0.58 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.02 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 2.63 23.35 6.89 23.53 6.92 2.41 January : 2.64 23.38 7.07 23.70 7.02 2.36 United States : December : 0.63 8.23 0.03 6.96 1.23 0.69 January : 0.63 8.20 0.03 7.01 1.23 0.62 Total foreign : December : 2.00 15.12 6.86 16.57 5.69 1.72 January : 2.01 15.18 7.04 16.70 5.80 1.74 Major exporters 3/ : December : 0.92 9.09 0.71 4.74 5.09 0.89 January : 0.92 9.23 0.71 4.74 5.22 0.89 Argentina Dec : 0.34 2.45 0.00 0.11 2.34 0.34 Jan : 0.34 2.55 0.00 0.11 2.44 0.34 Brazil Dec : 0.42 3.82 0.21 2.78 1.28 0.40 Jan : 0.42 3.86 0.21 2.78 1.32 0.40 EU-15 Dec : 0.16 2.82 0.50 1.86 1.47 0.15 Jan : 0.16 2.82 0.50 1.86 1.47 0.15 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.60 2.54 2.20 4.87 0.05 0.42 January : 0.60 2.50 2.28 4.91 0.05 0.42 China Dec : 0.58 1.62 1.75 3.50 0.05 0.40 Jan : 0.58 1.62 1.75 3.50 0.05 0.40 Pakistan Dec : 0.02 0.01 0.25 0.26 0.00 0.02 Jan : 0.02 0.01 0.28 0.28 0.00 0.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-346-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World : 34.59 89.56 29.08 88.33 26.83 0.25 37.84 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total foreign : 31.99 70.61 28.68 77.20 19.96 0.25 33.86 Major exporters 5/ : 10.94 39.56 0.59 23.33 15.94 0.07 11.75 Pakistan : 1.36 7.32 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.02 1.82 India : 4.16 13.92 0.04 12.37 1.19 0.00 4.56 Central Asia 6/ : 2.02 6.57 0.01 1.10 6.03 0.00 1.47 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.42 3.67 0.01 0.30 3.31 0.00 0.49 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.48 5.35 0.23 1.30 4.41 0.02 2.33 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.38 0.00 0.95 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 19.21 27.26 22.87 46.39 2.45 0.18 20.32 Brazil : 1.15 1.29 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.96 Mexico : 0.34 1.08 0.95 1.60 0.45 0.04 0.28 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.35 0.01 0.00 14.76 Europe : 2.03 1.95 6.22 6.65 1.61 0.05 1.88 Turkey : 0.54 3.60 1.36 4.74 0.21 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.95 0.05 8.31 8.15 0.18 0.10 1.88 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World : 37.84 91.40 26.81 88.18 26.51 0.25 41.10 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.01 11.35 7.50 0.04 3.89 Total foreign : 33.86 72.60 26.79 76.83 19.01 0.21 37.22 Major exporters 5/ : 11.75 39.69 0.65 23.70 15.79 0.07 12.53 Pakistan : 1.82 7.00 0.15 7.10 0.35 0.03 1.49 India : 4.56 12.26 0.25 12.50 0.30 0.00 4.27 Central Asia 6/ : 1.47 7.21 0.01 1.09 5.68 0.00 1.92 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.49 4.32 4/ 0.31 3.59 0.00 0.91 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.33 5.70 0.23 1.30 4.50 0.02 2.44 Australia : 0.95 3.06 4/ 0.21 2.71 0.00 1.09 Argentina : 1.04 1.35 0.03 0.45 1.00 0.00 0.97 Major importers : 20.32 29.69 20.61 45.68 1.92 0.14 22.87 Brazil : 0.96 1.75 1.85 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 0.28 0.96 1.60 2.05 0.25 0.04 0.51 China : 14.76 21.10 1.83 20.80 0.03 0.00 16.86 Europe : 1.88 2.13 6.22 6.75 1.38 0.05 2.05 Turkey : 0.56 3.70 1.45 5.00 0.10 0.00 0.61 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.05 7.65 7.68 0.16 0.05 1.69 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.92 1.85 0.00 0.05 0.14 South Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.32 1.38 0.05 0.00 0.41 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.61 million bales in 1996/97 and 1.81 million in 1997/98. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-346-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World : December : 41.13 84.20 24.67 85.83 24.59 0.27 39.32 January : 41.10 85.11 24.75 85.65 24.46 0.25 40.61 United States : December : 3.89 13.45 0.40 10.60 4.30 0.04 2.80 January : 3.89 13.80 0.35 10.50 4.30 0.03 3.20 Total foreign : December : 37.24 70.74 24.27 75.23 20.29 0.23 36.52 January : 37.22 71.32 24.40 75.15 20.16 0.22 37.41 Major exporters 5/ : December : 12.50 40.00 0.45 23.90 15.64 0.08 13.32 January : 12.53 39.57 0.53 23.77 15.72 0.07 13.07 Pakistan Dec : 1.49 7.50 0.10 7.30 0.20 0.03 1.57 Jan : 1.49 7.20 0.20 7.20 0.10 0.03 1.57 India Dec : 4.27 13.00 0.13 12.30 0.40 0.00 4.70 Jan : 4.27 13.00 0.13 12.30 0.40 0.00 4.70 Central Asia 6/Dec : 1.92 6.62 0.01 1.16 5.33 0.00 2.06 Jan : 1.92 6.62 0.01 1.16 5.33 0.00 2.06 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Dec : 0.80 4.29 4/ 0.34 3.79 0.00 0.96 Jan : 0.91 4.26 4/ 0.34 3.76 0.00 1.07 S. Hemis 8/ Dec : 2.52 6.04 0.20 1.35 4.53 0.03 2.85 Jan : 2.44 5.94 0.18 1.31 4.73 0.02 2.50 Australia Dec : 1.09 3.30 4/ 0.23 2.90 0.00 1.27 Jan : 1.09 3.30 4/ 0.23 3.00 0.00 1.17 Argentina Dec : 1.05 1.50 0.03 0.49 0.90 0.01 1.18 Jan : 0.97 1.40 0.01 0.45 1.00 0.00 0.92 Major importers Dec : 22.93 27.47 18.36 43.96 3.40 0.14 21.25 Jan : 22.87 28.47 18.51 44.11 3.20 0.14 22.40 Brazil Dec : 1.16 1.80 1.45 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.16 Jan : 1.16 1.80 1.45 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.16 Mexico Dec : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 Jan : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 China Dec : 16.86 18.80 0.65 19.80 1.50 0.00 15.01 Jan : 16.86 19.80 0.65 19.80 1.30 0.00 16.21 Europe Dec : 2.05 2.11 6.30 6.81 1.40 0.05 2.21 Jan : 2.05 2.11 6.30 6.81 1.40 0.05 2.21 Turkey Dec : 0.61 3.70 0.90 4.40 0.20 0.00 0.61 Jan : 0.61 3.70 0.90 4.40 0.20 0.00 0.61 Sel. Asia 9/ Dec : 1.75 0.05 7.61 7.50 0.15 0.05 1.70 Jan : 1.69 0.05 7.76 7.65 0.15 0.05 1.64 Indonesia Dec : 0.12 0.02 1.90 1.85 0.00 0.05 0.14 Jan : 0.14 0.02 2.00 1.95 0.00 0.05 0.16 S. Korea Dec : 0.41 4/ 1.33 1.33 0.05 0.00 0.36 Jan : 0.41 4/ 1.33 1.33 0.05 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.50 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-346-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1997 : Annual : 25384 17244 43209 27271 5478 33258 76467 6471 156.6 : 1998 : I : 6215 4687 11038 6845 1290 8258 19296 1637 39.2 II : 6463 4430 11015 6991 1321 8453 19468 1635 40.9 III : 6638 4625 11380 6942 1302 8375 19755 1653 38.7 IV : 6350 5250 11723 7075 1325 8525 20248 1705 38.8 Annual : Dec Proj : 25686 18942 45123 27798 5238 33556 78679 6625 157.4 Jan Proj : 25666 18992 45156 27853 5238 33611 78767 6630 157.6 : 1999 : I *: 6150 4900 11172 7175 1175 8485 19657 1665 39.9 II *: 6050 4650 10813 7400 1325 8870 19683 1675 41.6 III *: 6200 4600 10911 7400 1375 8910 19821 1700 39.6 IV *: 5875 4725 10720 7400 1375 8905 19625 1750 39.4 Annual : Dec Proj : 24075 19425 43963 29225 5250 35020 78983 6790 160.1 Jan Proj : 24275 18875 43616 29375 5250 35170 78786 6790 160.6 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1997 : Annual : 66.32 51.36 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.34 : 1998 : I : 61.73 34.74 56.4 55.1 79.0 14.60 II : 64.16 39.42 61.0 59.1 66.5 13.73 III : 58.97 33.30 70.4 63.4 76.0 15.37 IV : 61.05 19.50 64.5 71.2 81.7 17.87 Annual : Dec Proj : 61.84 32.24 62.8 62.0 76.0 15.35-15.45 Jan Proj : 61.48 31.74 63.1 62.2 75.8 15.39 1999 : I *: 64-66 23-25 57-59 55-57 74-77 16.70-17.10 II *: 70-76 32-34 57-61 58-62 63-67 13.25-13.95 III *: 67-73 36-38 58-62 61-67 67-73 12.60-13.60 IV *: 69-75 40-44 56-60 69-75 77-83 14.10-15.10 Annual : Dec Proj : 69-75 32-34 56-60 60-65 70-75 14.20-15.00 Jan Proj : 68-72 33-35 57-61 61-65 70-75 14.15-14.95 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-346-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1997 : 377 25490 2343 28210 2136 465 25609 66.9 1998 Proj. Dec : 465 25792 2611 28868 2158 400 26310 68.2 Jan : 465 25772 2611 28848 2158 400 26290 68.1 1999 Proj. Dec : 400 24181 2790 27371 2340 350 24681 63.3 Jan : 400 24381 2790 27571 2340 350 24881 63.8 : PORK : 1997 : 366 17274 633 18273 1044 408 16821 48.7 1998 Proj. Dec : 408 18972 680 20060 1232 475 18353 52.7 Jan : 408 19022 695 20125 1232 500 18393 52.8 1999 Proj. Dec : 475 19455 700 20630 1355 490 18785 53.4 Jan : 500 18905 700 20105 1355 475 18275 52.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1997 : 759 43358 3059 47176 3185 895 43096 117.8 1998 Proj. Dec : 895 45272 3384 49551 3395 892 45264 122.8 Jan : 895 45305 3400 49600 3395 917 45288 122.9 1999 Proj. Dec : 892 44112 3575 48579 3700 857 44022 118.5 Jan : 917 43765 3575 48257 3700 842 43715 117.6 : BROILERS : 1997 : 641 27041 5 27687 4664 607 22416 72.7 1998 Proj. Dec : 607 27559 5 28170 4466 625 23079 74.2 Jan : 607 27613 5 28225 4466 700 23059 74.2 1999 Proj. Dec : 625 28968 4 29597 4325 650 24622 78.4 Jan : 700 29116 4 29820 4325 750 24745 78.8 : TURKEYS : 1997 : 328 5412 1 5741 598 415 4727 17.6 1998 Proj. Dec : 415 5174 1 5590 428 300 4861 18.0 Jan : 415 5174 1 5590 428 275 4886 18.1 1999 Proj. Dec : 300 5186 1 5487 430 275 4781 17.5 Jan : 275 5186 1 5462 430 250 4781 17.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1997 : 975 32964 6 33944 5646 1029 27268 90.8 1998 Proj. Dec : 1029 33254 6 34289 5314 932 28042 92.6 Jan : 1029 33309 6 34344 5314 982 28046 92.6 1999 Proj. Dec : 932 34699 5 35637 5167 930 29539 96.5 Jan : 982 34848 5 35835 5167 1005 29662 96.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1997 : 1734 76322 3065 81120 8831 1924 70364 208.6 1998 Proj. Dec : 1924 78526 3390 83840 8709 1824 73306 215.4 Jan : 1924 78614 3406 83944 8709 1899 73335 215.5 1999 Proj. Dec : 1824 78811 3580 84216 8867 1787 73561 215.0 Jan : 1899 78613 3580 84092 8867 1847 73377 214.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-346-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1998 Projected : 1999 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1996 : 1997 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.2 8.5 7.4 7.4 5.0 8.0 Production : 6350.7 6470.8 6625.3 6629.8 6790.0 6790.0 Imports : 5.4 6.9 5.6 5.6 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6367.3 6486.3 6638.3 6642.8 6799.0 6802.0 : Use : Exports : 253.1 227.8 226.5 226.5 243.0 243.0 Hatching use : 863.8 894.8 921.6 921.6 970.0 970.0 Ending stocks : 8.5 7.4 5.0 8.0 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5241.8 5356.3 5485.2 5486.7 5581.0 5584.0 Per capita (number) : 236.8 239.9 243.6 243.7 245.5 245.6 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Proj 1/: 1998/99 Proj 1/ Commodity :1995/96:1996/97:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 Production : 154.1 156.4 157.0 157.0 159.3 159.9 Farm use : 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 152.5 155.0 155.6 155.6 158.0 158.6 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 159.9 162.7 165.6 165.6 167.5 168.1 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.9 156.1 159.1 159.1 161.4 162.0 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 1.1 2.7 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) : 13.50 11.88 13.28 13.28 13.45- 13.45- : 14.05 13.95 All milk 5/ : 14.49 13.53 14.56 14.56 15.10- 15.15- : 15.70 15.65 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 24 21 21 5 5 Cheese : 5 10 8 8 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 84 222 368 368 285 285 Dry whole milk : 7 7 15 15 9 9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-346-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 17-year record of the differences between the January projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the January projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.5 million tons (0.7%) ranging from -8.3 to 6.4 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 11 times and above 6 times. Reliability of January Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.7 3.5 -8.3 6.4 11 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 8 3 Foreign : 0.8 3.5 -8.3 6.4 11 6 Exports : World : 3.2 3.6 -14.0 5.2 10 7 U.S. : 4.0 1.4 -3.9 2.7 9 8 Foreign : 4.4 3.4 -12.6 5.6 12 5 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.4 -14.3 11.0 11 6 U.S. : 4.9 1.5 -2.6 3.0 6 11 Foreign : 1.0 5.0 -14.8 8.6 11 6 Ending stocks : World : 3.9 4.6 -11.1 8.1 11 6 U.S. : 8.4 1.9 -4.6 3.3 10 7 Foreign : 4.0 3.6 -8.7 5.2 11 6 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.3 -17.9 8.2 9 8 U.S. : 0.3 0.6 -4.6 1.3 10 3 Foreign : 1.2 6.9 -17.3 8.2 9 8 Exports : World : 4.2 4.3 -10.8 13.3 11 6 U.S. : 9.8 4.9 -11.1 12.4 9 8 Foreign : 7.6 3.8 -8.2 8.0 8 9 Domestic use : World : 1.0 8.6 -16.0 29.0 7 10 U.S. : 2.9 5.1 -18.8 11.5 7 10 Foreign : 1.1 6.9 -10.9 22.8 10 7 Ending stocks : World : 7.7 10.7 -31.8 17.6 13 4 U.S. : 11.5 6.9 -24.3 20.8 9 8 Foreign : 10.1 6.7 -19.3 10.8 14 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.5 4.7 -12.6 1.8 15 2 U.S. : 1.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2 6 1 Foreign : 1.5 4.7 -12.6 1.8 15 2 Exports : World : 8.1 1.4 -5.4 1.0 13 4 U.S. : 6.0 0.2 -0.6 0.2 8 7 Foreign : 9.4 1.3 -5.2 1.0 13 4 Domestic use : World : 1.2 3.9 -12.3 1.9 13 4 U.S. : 5.9 0.1 -0.3 0.5 8 9 Foreign : 1.2 4.0 -12.4 2.2 14 3 Ending stocks : World : 7.5 2.6 -7.3 3.9 12 5 U.S. : 14.7 0.2 -0.3 0.4 9 7 Foreign : 7.8 2.6 -7.1 3.8 12 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-346-30 Reliability of January Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.8 1.9 -5.6 2.9 10 7 U.S. : 1.3 0.7 -1.6 1.8 7 8 Foreign : 3.6 1.9 -6.2 2.6 11 6 Exports : World : 3.8 1.1 -2.1 2.7 10 7 U.S. : 6.4 1.3 -2.4 4.3 9 8 Foreign : 16.1 1.3 -3.7 2.1 9 8 Domestic use : World : 2.4 2.7 -5.7 3.6 10 7 U.S. : 2.7 1.0 -3.6 0.8 11 6 Foreign : 2.8 2.0 -3.7 3.6 10 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.4 1.8 -3.4 5.0 8 9 U.S. : 21.1 1.6 -2.6 4.9 5 12 Foreign : 13.3 1.4 -2.9 2.7 10 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.2 1.8 -5.4 3.6 11 5 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 3 13 Foreign : 2.7 1.9 -5.7 3.5 11 5 Exports : World : 3.9 0.9 -2.7 0.9 8 9 U.S. : 8.2 0.4 -1.0 0.8 9 8 Foreign : 5.1 0.9 -3.4 1.0 9 8 Mill use : World : 2.0 1.7 -6.3 1.8 8 9 U.S. : 4.0 0.3 -0.9 0.5 12 4 Foreign : 2.1 1.5 -5.8 2.0 8 9 Ending stocks : World : 9.7 3.2 -6.1 8.1 8 9 U.S. : 14.7 0.6 -0.8 2.1 4 13 Foreign : 10.1 3.0 -6.3 7.6 10 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 17 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-346-31 Reliability of United States January Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.3 20 -148 38 4 1 Exports : 9.7 166 -379 384 9 8 Domestic use : 3.0 176 -574 345 7 10 Ending stocks : 14.1 279 -986 838 10 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.5 4 -53 14 1 3 Exports : 15.1 36 -90 97 11 5 Domestic use : 10.5 51 -148 127 9 8 Ending stocks : 34.0 37 -78 98 6 11 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 8 2 Exports : 15.9 12 -37 23 6 10 Domestic use : 5.2 21 -43 70 9 7 Ending stocks : 8.0 14 -52 18 12 5 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 1 Exports : 55.5 1 -1 7 4 6 Domestic use : 3.5 15 -39 36 9 8 Ending stocks : 12.6 17 -47 34 9 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.7 815 -2728 713 12 5 Exports : 8.6 584 -2050 941 10 7 Domestic use : 2.2 483 -1200 575 11 6 Ending stocks : 33.7 78 -214 188 5 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.8 388 -1418 575 12 5 Exports : 19.9 301 -800 839 8 9 Domestic use : 2.5 300 -885 400 13 4 Ending stocks : 18.3 252 -501 538 9 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.8 654 -661 1688 10 5 Pork : 3.2 510 -1240 1717 9 6 Broilers : 1.6 314 -729 512 10 5 Turkeys : 2.3 95 -177 181 10 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.5 89 -140 169 9 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -4.8 5.6 6 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 17 for crops and 15 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1997 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1996/97 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----- End of File -----