WASDE-347 - February 10, 1999 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1998/99 ending stocks of wheat are up 80 million bushels from last month because of larger imports and reduced exports. Projected exports are 75 million bushels below last month's forecast because of lower global imports and because of slower-than-expected food aid shipments to Russia and other needy countries. The projected price range is unchanged from last month at $2.65 to $2.75 per bushel. Projected 1998/99 global production is up slightly from last month, mainly because of larger crops in Argentina and Algeria. While the bigger crops are expected to lead to larger Argentine exports and smaller Algerian imports, there are many other changes in trade forecasts. Russia's imports are down 1 million tons because of the delayed food aid shipments from the United States and the EU. Smaller imports also are expected by Iran, Yemen, and Indonesia. Larger purchases by South Korea, Morocco, and Pakistan are partially offsetting. On the export side, projected shipments are down 1.5 million tons this month for the EU, 500,000 tons for Canada, and 2 million tons for the United States. Higher export forecasts for Eastern Europe and Ukraine are partially offsetting. Most of the rise in projected 1998/99 global ending stocks is due to lower exports and higher stocks for the United States, EU, and Canada. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1998/99 ending stocks of corn are down 23 million bushels from last month reflecting a 25-million-bushel increase in exports and 2-million-bushel increase in imports. Larger ending stocks are forecast for oats (due to higher imports) and sorghum (due to smaller exports). The projected price range for corn is unchanged at $1.80 to $2.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain 1998/99 production, use, and ending stocks projections are little changed from last month. Global corn imports are higher because of larger imports by Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia. Higher exports are forecasts for the United States, Hungary, and Romania. While Argentine corn production is up 1 million tons from last month, exports are unchanged because of larger domestic use and stocks. RICE: Slight changes are made this month to U.S. supply and use for 1998/99. On the use side, exports for 1998/99 are lowered 1 million cwt to 86 million cwt because of delayed shipments to Russia. All-rice ending stocks for 1998/99 are projected at 30 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month and an increase of over 8 percent from 1997/98. Ending stocks of long-grain rice are projected at nearly 21 million cwt, up 5 percent from last month and 44 percent from last year, while ending stocks of combined medium/short grain rice are projected at over 8 million cwt, unchanged from last month but down 32 percent from 1997/98. The season-average price for 1998/99 is unchanged at $8.25-$8.75 per cwt compared to a revised $9.70 per cwt for 1997/98. Slight changes are made to global supply and use for 1998/99. World rice production is revised down slightly, primarily because of a reduction in production in the Philippines, which is partially offset by small upward revisions for Australia, Pakistan, and the FSU. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 1998/99 are increased 20 million bushels this month to 410 million bushels, more than double the 1997/98 level. Prospective U.S. soybean exports are cut 20 million bushels to 810 million, based on increased competition from South America. U.S. soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels in the September-August marketing year for soybeans but is unchanged at 1,595 million bushels for October-September marketing year for products. Reduced soybean meal and oil exports this month are largely offset by increases in domestic use. Domestic consumption for both soybean meal and oil have been unusually strong through January but are expected to slow later in the marketing year as hog production slows and the strong pace of economic growth cools a little. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 1998/99 are forecast at $5.00 to $5.40 per bushel, off about 15 cents from last month. Soybean meal prices are cut slightly to $130 to $145 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are reduced to 23.5 to 25.0 cents per pound as prices to date have been weaker than expected. Global consumption of oilseed meals and vegetable oils are nearly unchanged this month. Upward revisions in soybean meal use, mainly for the United States and the EU-15, are largely offset by reductions for China, where soybean meal imports and use have slowed markedly. The strong growth in EU soybean meal use and imports so far in 1998/99 has been helped by declining relative prices for soybean meal and by the EU ban on citrus pulp imports from Brazil. In China, economic growth is still quite robust, but lower profitability in the livestock sector has slowed growth in meal consumption. World oilseed production for 1998/99 is projected at a record 290.7 million metric tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month and 5 million tons from last year. U.S. and foreign production are both at record levels. U.S. oilseed production of 84.6 million tons is unchanged from last month, and foreign oilseed production of 206.1 million tons is up 1.3 million tons, mostly due to a 1.5-million-ton gain in South American soybean crops. Widespread rains in past few weeks for both Argentina and Brazil have been very beneficial for yield prospects. Argentina's soybean crop is increased 0.5 million tons to 18.0 million tons, but is still below the 1997/98 record of 18.7 million tons. Brazil's crop is boosted 1.0 million tons to 30.5 million tons, but is below the upwardly revised record crop of 31.5 million tons for 1997/98. Elsewhere, production is revised down 0.2 million tons for copra in the Philippines. For sunflowerseed, a cut in India's sunflowerseed crop of 0.3 million tons is nearly offset by upward revisions for the FSU. Argentina's peanut crop is also increased by 50,000 tons. SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 1998/99 is projected at 11.9 million short tons, raw value, down 2 percent from last month, and up 1.7 percent from 1997/98. Projected sugar production from sugarbeets is decreased 100,000 tons. Storage losses in beets are expected higher, due to above-normal temperatures since January. Projected imports under the Tariff Rate Quota are decreased 166,000 tons due to cancellation of the January tranche. Imports and deliveries under the re-export program are increased 25,000 tons. The carryout stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.4 percent, down from 18.8 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Estimated 1998 total meat production is virtually unchanged from last month. Projected meat production in 1999 is raised due to increased beef production; pork and poultry production forecasts are unchanged. This month's larger beef production forecast reflects higher-than-expected 1999 beginning inventory numbers for cattle reported in the January 29 Cattle report. The reported 1998 calf crop was higher than anticipated and 1998 death loss was lower. The 1999 annual projection of red meat exports is unchanged but quarterly forecasts are changed to reflect the lack of concessionary sales to Russia so far this quarter. Projected 1999 broiler exports are increased this month to reflect the donations to Russia. Cattle price forecasts for 1999 are lowered as a result of the higher forecast beef production. The annual 1999 hog price forecast is unchanged, but the quarterly pattern reflects more strength in the first quarter. The 1998/99 milk supply and use forecasts are little changed from last month. Milk price forecasts for 1998/99 are lowered slightly to reflect the impact of expected product price changes. Milk production prior to 1998 is adjusted to reflect historical revisions in cow numbers and milk production released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service on January 19. COTTON: Lower disappearance and higher ending stocks characterize the 1998/99 U.S. cotton forecasts this month. Domestic mill use and exports are reduced 100,000 bales each, raising ending stocks 200,000 bales. Weaker domestic mill use reflects the effect of extended December holiday closings due to excess inventories. Exports are reduced based on limited sales since the expiration of Step 2. This month's 1998/99 world cotton forecasts also show lower consumption and larger ending stocks. Production is reduced marginally, as decreases in Pakistan, the African Franc Zone, and Paraguay are partially offset by increases in Turkey and Australia. Consumption is reduced in Turkey, India, Portugal, the United States, and Uzbekistan, as the world's financial difficulties continue to erode textile demand. World trade is reduced 2 percent, as lower exports by China, India, and the United States are only partially offset by export increases for Australia and Uzbekistan. Global ending stocks are raised 2.5 percent to 41.6 million bales. This month's changes include further historical revisions for India from 1993/94 through 1997/98; the historical changes are largely offsetting and have little impact on 1998/99 beginning stocks. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on March 11, 1999. You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. MAKE PLANS TO ATTEND AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 1999 For a fresh perspective on agricultural prospects and issues shaping your future, attend the USDA's seventy-fifth agricultural outlook forum. The meeting takes place Feb. 22 and 23, 1999, at the Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel in Arlington, Va. For program and registration details: check www.usda.gov/oce, send your postal and e-mail addresses to agforum@oce.usda.gov, call 202-314-3462, or write to Outlook Forum 1999, Room 5143 South Building, USDA, Washington, DC 20250-3812. Can't Attend? Request instructions on how to get speeches on the Internet or by e-mail. To reserve a copy of the printed proceedings or new long-term projections released at the Forum, call 1-800-999-6779.NOTE: WASDE REPORT AVAILABLE IN PDF FORMAT You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm Acrobat files can be viewed or print in their original form, page by page. GET TIMELY DISPATCHES FROM AGRICULTURE'S NEW FRONTIER New forecasts for U.S. agriculture and presentations from USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 98, held February 23-24, 1998, are waiting for you. More than 60 speakers discussed farm prospects and front-burner issues ranging from biotechnology, to organic food standards, to transportation problems. DOWNLOAD SPEECHES: www.usda.gov/oce AGRICULTURAL BASELINE PROJECTIONS TO 2007, WAOB-WOAB-98-1. 124 pages, $21.00. Available now. PROCEEDINGS OF AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 98. WAOB-YCON-98, $25.00. Speeches and illustrations presented by speakers at the February 1998 conference. 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WASDE-347-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 1,869.26 2,124.53 252.61 1,833.68 290.84 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,874.96 2,165.80 250.25 1,841.88 323.91 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 1,844.04 2,168.73 239.85 1,857.74 310.98 February : 1,844.72 2,168.63 238.42 1,855.66 312.97 Wheat : 1996/97 : 582.45 689.15 125.37 576.50 112.65 1997/98 (Est.) : 609.52 722.17 122.35 584.69 137.48 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 585.69 722.34 114.08 597.39 124.95 February : 586.20 723.68 111.84 595.77 127.91 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 906.47 1,005.21 107.09 877.71 127.51 1997/98 (Est.) : 881.10 1,008.60 100.63 873.33 135.28 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 880.54 1,016.93 102.98 875.21 141.72 February : 880.84 1,016.11 103.79 874.85 141.26 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 380.34 430.16 20.15 379.48 50.69 1997/98 (Est.) : 384.33 435.02 27.28 383.86 51.16 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 377.81 429.46 22.79 385.14 44.32 February : 377.69 428.84 22.79 385.04 43.80 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 333.15 364.40 81.27 243.18 39.95 1997/98 (Est.) : 333.94 379.69 76.35 244.63 58.72 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 347.10 411.29 81.60 253.27 76.42 February : 347.10 411.56 79.90 253.28 78.37 Wheat : 1996/97 : 61.98 74.73 27.25 35.40 12.07 1997/98 (Est.) : 67.53 82.19 28.31 34.22 19.66 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 69.41 91.52 29.94 37.10 24.49 February : 69.41 91.66 27.90 37.10 26.67 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 265.71 283.08 51.52 204.55 27.01 1997/98 (Est.) : 260.43 290.37 45.25 206.97 38.15 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 271.55 312.43 48.82 212.64 50.98 February : 271.55 312.57 49.20 212.65 50.72 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 5.46 6.59 2.50 3.23 0.87 1997/98 (Est.) : 5.98 7.13 2.78 3.45 0.90 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 6.14 7.33 2.84 3.54 0.95 February : 6.14 7.33 2.81 3.54 0.98 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-347-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 1,536.11 1,760.13 171.33 1,590.51 250.89 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,541.02 1,786.10 173.91 1,597.25 265.20 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 1,496.94 1,757.44 158.25 1,604.47 234.57 February : 1,497.62 1,757.07 158.51 1,602.38 234.60 Wheat : 1996/97 : 520.47 614.42 98.11 541.10 100.58 1997/98 (Est.) : 541.99 639.99 94.04 550.48 117.82 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 516.28 630.81 84.14 560.29 100.46 February : 516.79 632.02 83.94 558.67 101.24 Coarse grains 5/ : 1996/97 : 640.76 722.13 55.57 673.15 100.50 1997/98 (Est.) : 620.67 718.23 55.37 666.36 97.12 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 608.99 704.50 54.16 662.57 90.74 February : 609.29 703.54 54.59 662.20 90.54 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 374.88 423.57 17.65 376.25 49.82 1997/98 (Est.) : 378.36 427.89 24.50 380.42 50.25 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 371.67 422.13 19.95 381.60 43.37 February : 371.54 421.51 19.98 381.50 42.82 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1996/97 : 89.56 125.04 26.83 89.08 37.95 1997/98 (Est.) : 91.57 129.52 26.56 88.36 41.12 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 85.11 126.22 24.46 85.65 40.61 February : 84.86 125.98 23.95 84.61 41.60 : United States 1996/97 : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Est.) : 18.79 22.78 7.50 11.35 3.89 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 13.80 18.03 4.30 10.50 3.20 February : 13.80 18.03 4.20 10.40 3.40 : Foreign 3/ 1996/97 : 70.61 103.09 19.96 77.95 33.98 1997/98 (Est.) : 72.78 106.74 19.06 77.01 37.24 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 71.32 108.18 20.16 75.15 37.41 February : 71.07 107.95 19.75 74.21 38.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-347-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 261.24 283.30 49.42 219.00 16.48 1997/98 (Est.) : 285.64 302.11 53.84 228.96 22.56 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 289.39 311.72 54.03 235.75 26.02 February : 290.67 313.24 53.95 236.02 27.38 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 149.17 155.94 50.40 150.40 5.80 1997/98 (Est.) : 155.82 161.62 51.58 155.43 5.58 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 160.86 166.47 54.24 160.74 5.42 February : 160.92 166.50 54.02 160.61 5.62 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 75.52 82.96 28.84 75.00 7.48 1997/98 (Est.) : 76.76 84.24 29.61 76.56 7.27 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 80.25 87.45 30.06 80.12 6.95 February : 79.74 87.01 29.89 79.96 6.82 : : United States Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 74.76 81.40 24.63 44.14 4.65 1997/98 (Est.) : 83.10 88.42 24.45 48.88 6.44 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 84.62 91.75 23.48 48.12 11.51 February : 84.62 91.74 22.91 48.01 12.06 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 33.76 35.03 6.60 28.21 0.23 1997/98 (Est.) : 37.45 39.04 8.69 30.05 0.30 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 36.81 38.57 7.63 30.69 0.25 February : 36.78 38.53 7.32 30.92 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 8.45 11.18 1.61 8.61 0.96 1997/98 (Est.) : 9.64 12.25 2.13 9.13 0.99 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 9.59 12.17 1.99 9.23 0.95 February : 9.60 12.16 1.92 9.29 0.94 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 186.49 201.90 24.78 174.86 11.82 1997/98 (Est.) : 202.54 213.69 29.39 180.08 16.12 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 204.78 219.97 30.55 187.63 14.52 February : 206.06 221.50 31.04 188.01 15.32 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 115.41 120.90 43.81 122.19 5.57 1997/98 (Est.) : 118.37 122.59 42.90 125.38 5.28 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 124.05 127.90 46.61 130.05 5.18 February : 124.14 127.97 46.70 129.68 5.33 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 67.06 71.78 27.23 66.39 6.51 1997/98 (Est.) : 67.13 71.99 27.48 67.44 6.28 1998/99 (Proj.) : January : 70.67 75.28 28.07 70.88 6.00 February : 70.15 74.85 27.96 70.67 5.88 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-347-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 75.1 70.4 65.9 65.9 Harvested : 62.8 62.8 59.0 59.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 36.3 39.5 43.2 43.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 376 444 722 722 Production : 2,277 2,481 2,550 2,550 Imports : 92 95 90 95 Supply, total : 2,746 3,020 3,363 3,368 Food : 891 917 925 925 Seed : 102 93 88 88 Feed and residual : 308 248 350 350 Domestic, total : 1,301 1,257 1,363 1,363 Exports : 1,001 1,040 1,100 1,025 Use, total : 2,302 2,297 2,463 2,388 Ending stocks : 444 722 900 980 CCC inventory : 93 94 95 125 Free stocks : 351 628 805 855 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.30 3.38 2.65- 2.75 2.65- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1997/98 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,098 491 472 332 88 2,481 Supply, total 3/ : 1,242 714 517 399 148 3,020 Domestic use : 577 254 257 104 65 1,257 Exports : 358 240 180 205 57 1,040 Use, total : 935 494 437 309 122 2,297 Ending stocks, total : 307 220 80 90 26 722 : 1998/99 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 307 220 80 90 26 722 Production : 1,182 487 443 298 141 2,550 Supply, total 3/ : 1,490 764 523 397 195 3,368 Domestic use : 604 264 298 111 87 1,363 Exports : 438 260 75 215 37 1,025 Use, total : 1,042 524 373 326 124 2,388 Ending stocks, total : February : 448 239 150 71 71 980 January : 393 217 150 70 69 900 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-347-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 104.1 101.4 101.1 101.1 Harvested : 93.8 90.8 89.0 89.0 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.83 2.87 3.05 3.05 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 14.4 27.0 38.1 38.1 Production : 265.5 260.2 271.2 271.2 Imports : 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.8 Supply, total : 282.7 290.0 312.0 312.1 Feed and residual : 155.0 154.8 158.5 158.5 Food, seed & industrial : 49.2 51.8 53.8 53.8 Domestic, total : 204.2 206.6 212.2 212.2 Exports : 51.5 45.3 48.8 49.2 Use, total : 255.7 251.9 261.1 261.4 Ending stocks, total : 27.0 38.1 51.0 50.7 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 Free stocks : 26.9 38.0 50.8 50.4 Outstanding loans : 5.0 8.5 8.8 8.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 79.5 80.2 80.2 Harvested : 72.6 72.7 72.6 72.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 127.1 126.7 134.4 134.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 426 883 1,308 1,308 Production : 9,233 9,207 9,761 9,761 Imports : 13 9 10 12 Supply, total : 9,672 10,099 11,079 11,081 Feed and residual : 5,302 5,505 5,700 5,700 Food, seed & industrial : 1,692 1,782 1,870 1,870 Domestic, total : 6,994 7,287 7,570 7,570 Exports : 1,795 1,504 1,700 1,725 Use, total : 8,789 8,791 9,270 9,295 Ending stocks, total : 883 1,308 1,809 1,786 CCC inventory : 2 4 5 12 Free stocks : 881 1,304 1,804 1,774 Outstanding loans : 179 310 325 325 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.71 2.43 1.80- 2.10 1.80- 2.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-347-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 13.1 10.1 9.6 9.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 11.8 9.2 7.7 7.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.3 69.2 67.3 67.3 Beginning stocks : 18 47 49 49 Production : 795 634 520 520 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 814 681 569 569 Feed : 516 365 275 275 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 45 45 Total domestic : 561 420 320 320 Exports : 205 212 195 185 Use, total : 766 632 515 505 Ending stocks, total : 47 49 54 64 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.34 2.21 1.60- 1.90 1.55- 1.85 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.1 6.7 6.3 6.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.2 5.9 5.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.5 58.1 60.1 60.1 Beginning stocks : 100 109 119 119 Production : 392 360 352 352 Imports : 37 40 30 30 Supply, total : 529 510 502 502 Feed : 217 144 185 185 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 389 316 357 357 Exports : 31 74 30 30 Use, total : 419 390 387 387 Ending stocks, total : 109 119 115 115 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.74 2.38 1.85- 2.05 1.90- 2.00 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.6 5.1 4.9 4.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.7 59.5 60.4 60.4 Beginning stocks : 66 67 74 74 Production : 153 167 167 167 Imports : 97 98 100 105 Supply, total : 317 332 341 346 Feed : 153 161 165 165 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 95 95 Total domestic : 248 256 260 260 Exports : 3 2 2 2 Use, total : 250 258 262 262 Ending stocks, total : 67 74 79 84 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.96 1.60 1.05- 1.15 1.10- 1.20 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-347-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.82 3.13 3.35 3.35 Harvested : 2.80 3.10 3.32 3.32 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,120 5,897 5,669 5,669 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.0 27.2 27.7 27.7 Production : 171.6 183.0 188.1 188.1 Imports : 10.0 9.2 9.0 9.0 Supply, total : 206.6 219.4 224.7 224.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 101.0 106.5 108.7 108.7 Exports, total 4/ : 78.4 85.2 87.0 86.0 Rough : 12.6 26.1 24.0 24.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 65.9 59.1 63.0 62.0 Use, total : 179.4 191.7 195.7 194.7 Ending stocks : 27.2 27.7 29.0 30.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.96 9.70 8.25- 8.75 8.25- 8.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 1.97 2.31 2.61 2.61 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,777 5,391 5,430 5,430 Beginning stocks : 10.1 14.1 14.3 14.3 Production : 113.6 124.5 141.6 141.6 Supply, total 6/ : 132.5 146.6 163.8 163.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 61.9 62.5 71.6 71.6 Exports 7/ : 56.5 69.7 72.5 71.5 Use, total : 118.4 132.2 144.1 143.1 Ending stocks : 14.1 14.3 19.7 20.7 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.84 0.79 0.71 0.71 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,926 7,369 6,548 6,548 Beginning stocks : 14.3 12.1 12.3 12.3 Production : 58.0 58.5 46.4 46.4 Supply, total 6/ : 73.1 71.8 59.9 59.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.1 44.0 37.1 37.1 Exports 7/ : 22.0 15.5 14.5 14.5 Use, total : 61.0 59.5 51.6 51.6 Ending stocks : 12.1 12.3 8.3 8.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0; 1998/99-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-347-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 64.2 70.0 72.4 72.4 Harvested : 63.3 69.1 70.8 70.8 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 37.6 38.9 38.9 38.9 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 183 132 200 200 Production : 2,380 2,689 2,757 2,757 Imports : 9 5 6 6 Supply, total : 2,573 2,826 2,963 2,963 Crushings : 1,436 1,597 1,595 1,590 Exports : 882 870 830 810 Seed : 82 86 87 88 Residual : 41 72 61 65 Use, total : 2,441 2,626 2,573 2,553 Ending stocks : 132 200 390 410 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.35 6.47 5.10- 5.60 5.00 - 5.40 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,382 1,382 Production : 15,752 18,143 18,070 18,070 3/ Imports : 53 60 58 63 Supply, total : 17,821 19,724 19,510 19,515 Domestic : 14,263 15,264 15,450 15,600 Exports : 2,037 3,077 2,700 2,550 Use, total : 16,300 18,341 18,150 18,150 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,382 1,360 1,365 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.50 25.84 25.00- 23.50- : 27.00 25.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 212 210 218 218 Production : 34,210 38,171 37,807 37,757 3/ Imports : 102 55 50 50 Supply, total : 34,524 38,436 38,075 38,025 Domestic : 27,320 28,888 29,600 29,850 Exports : 6,994 9,330 8,250 7,900 Use, total : 34,314 38,218 37,850 37,750 Ending stocks : 210 218 225 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 270.90 185.54 130.00- 130.00- : 150.00 145.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,595 million bushels. WASDE-347-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :====================== : : Estimate : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,488 1,679 1,679 Production 2/3/ : 7,205 8,020 8,257 8,157 Beet sugar : 4,013 4,389 4,500 4,400 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,192 3,631 3,757 3,757 Imports 2/ : 2,774 2,163 2,178 2,037 TRQ 5/ : 2,277 1,729 1,733 1,567 Other 6/ : 497 434 445 470 Total supply : 11,471 11,671 12,114 11,873 : Exports 2/7/ : 211 179 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,742 9,815 10,025 10,025 Domestic food use : 9,564 9,672 9,855 9,815 Other 8/ : 178 143 170 210 Miscellaneous 9/ : 30 (2) 0 0 Use, total : 9,983 9,992 10,200 10,200 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,488 1,679 1,914 1,673 : Stocks to use ratio : 14.9 16.8 18.8 16.4 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1996/97 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1998/99 are based on February Crop Production report and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1997/98 (projected 1998/99): FL 1,924 (2,075); HI 350 (340); LA 1,262 (1,250); TX 80 (85); PR 16 (7). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1998/99 TRQ includes a forecast 75,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-347-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.65 13.90 13.42 13.42 Harvested : 12.89 13.41 10.72 10.72 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 673 618 618 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.61 3.97 3.89 3.89 Production : 18.94 18.79 13.80 13.80 Imports : 0.40 0.01 0.35 0.35 Supply, total : 21.95 22.78 18.03 18.03 Domestic use : 11.13 11.35 10.50 10.40 Exports : 6.87 7.50 4.30 4.20 Use, total : 17.99 18.85 14.80 14.60 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.01 0.04 0.03 0.03 Ending stocks : 3.97 3.89 3.20 3.40 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 69.3 65.2 64.2 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. 5/ Weighted average for August-December 1998. WASDE-347-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 106.70 582.45 120.00 96.83 576.50 125.37 112.65 United States : 10.23 61.98 2.51 8.37 35.40 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 96.47 520.47 117.49 88.46 541.10 98.11 100.58 Major exporters 4/ : 19.47 167.91 23.22 44.09 96.42 87.18 27.00 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.03 0.45 5.08 10.20 0.80 Australia : 1.48 23.70 0.05 1.18 3.60 19.23 2.40 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.24 4.39 8.22 19.50 9.05 EU-15 : 11.12 98.51 22.90 38.07 79.51 38.26 14.76 Major importers 5/ : 38.02 173.26 37.09 15.86 205.67 3.03 39.66 Brazil : 0.22 3.20 5.57 0.05 8.41 0.00 0.58 China : 24.25 110.57 2.69 3.40 112.39 0.96 24.17 East. Europe : 7.78 26.13 5.15 10.60 31.08 1.57 6.41 N. Africa : 2.00 15.98 14.39 0.36 27.53 0.09 4.76 Pakistan : 2.90 16.91 3.01 0.45 20.12 0.00 2.70 Selected other : India : 12.00 62.10 1.45 0.35 66.84 1.70 7.00 FSU-12 6/ : 10.86 63.02 6.63 22.50 70.51 3.62 6.37 Russia : 2.95 34.90 2.55 14.34 38.07 0.67 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.73 7.70 0.01 1.50 5.12 2.25 1.07 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 112.65 609.52 122.18 103.32 584.69 122.35 137.48 United States : 12.07 67.53 2.58 6.75 34.22 28.31 19.66 Total foreign : 100.58 541.99 119.60 96.57 550.48 94.04 117.82 Major exporters 4/ : 27.00 152.71 26.01 47.88 99.68 82.21 23.84 Argentina : 0.80 14.80 0.03 0.35 4.71 10.50 0.42 Australia : 2.40 19.42 0.04 2.60 5.00 15.50 1.35 Canada : 9.05 24.28 0.20 3.37 7.37 20.17 5.99 EU-15 : 14.76 94.21 25.75 41.57 82.61 36.03 16.08 Major importers 5/ : 39.66 187.51 36.66 17.89 209.37 4.38 50.07 Brazil : 0.58 2.40 5.70 0.00 8.13 0.00 0.54 China : 24.17 123.30 1.91 5.00 114.87 1.14 33.37 East. Europe : 6.41 34.41 1.76 11.33 31.98 2.75 7.85 N. Africa : 4.76 10.18 16.96 0.31 27.93 0.09 3.89 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 4.13 0.30 20.26 0.01 3.21 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.28 1.73 0.35 68.41 0.00 9.60 FSU-12 6/ : 6.37 80.31 5.97 24.50 72.22 4.65 15.77 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.70 16.00 39.61 0.90 8.04 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.95 0.01 1.20 4.81 1.90 3.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-347-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 136.65 585.69 114.15 108.36 597.39 114.08 124.95 February : 137.48 586.20 111.42 108.21 595.77 111.84 127.91 United States : January : 19.66 69.41 2.45 9.53 37.10 29.94 24.49 February : 19.66 69.41 2.59 9.53 37.10 27.90 26.67 Total foreign : January : 116.99 516.28 111.70 98.83 560.29 84.14 100.46 February : 117.82 516.79 108.83 98.68 558.67 83.94 101.24 Major exporters 4/ : January : 23.34 159.06 21.07 51.98 104.30 71.61 27.56 February : 23.84 159.51 21.07 53.38 105.09 70.11 29.22 Argentina Jan : 0.42 10.30 0.03 0.10 4.45 6.00 0.30 Feb : 0.42 10.75 0.03 0.10 4.40 6.50 0.30 Australia Jan : 1.34 21.00 0.03 3.00 5.30 14.00 3.07 Feb : 1.35 21.00 0.03 3.00 5.30 14.00 3.08 Canada Jan : 5.99 24.40 0.20 4.20 8.20 15.50 6.89 Feb : 5.99 24.40 0.20 4.20 8.20 15.00 7.39 EU-15 Jan : 15.59 103.36 20.81 44.68 86.36 36.11 17.30 Feb : 16.08 103.36 20.81 46.08 87.20 34.61 18.45 Major importers 5/ : January : 49.59 178.78 33.47 19.06 214.19 4.04 43.62 February : 50.07 179.38 33.27 19.06 214.69 4.44 43.60 Brazil Jan : 0.54 2.20 6.10 0.20 8.30 0.00 0.54 Feb : 0.54 2.20 5.80 0.20 8.00 0.00 0.54 China Jan : 33.37 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 1.00 28.37 Feb : 33.37 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 1.00 28.37 East. Europe Jan : 7.05 33.87 1.37 12.30 33.78 2.55 5.96 Feb : 7.85 33.87 1.37 12.30 33.98 2.95 6.16 N. Africa Jan : 4.20 13.41 15.60 0.31 28.56 0.09 4.56 Feb : 3.89 14.01 15.30 0.31 28.76 0.09 4.35 Pakistan Jan : 3.21 18.70 2.20 0.30 21.25 0.00 2.86 Feb : 3.21 18.70 2.60 0.30 21.65 0.00 2.86 Selected other : India Jan : 9.60 66.05 1.65 0.35 69.00 0.00 8.30 Feb : 9.60 66.05 1.65 0.35 69.00 0.00 8.30 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 16.60 56.90 7.58 20.77 70.64 4.15 6.29 Feb : 15.77 56.50 6.58 19.27 67.54 5.10 6.20 Russia Jan : 8.04 27.00 4.70 13.45 37.45 1.00 1.29 Feb : 8.04 26.90 3.70 12.35 36.35 1.00 1.29 Kazakstan Jan : 3.32 5.00 0.00 1.30 4.90 1.80 1.62 Feb : 3.32 5.00 0.00 1.30 4.90 1.80 1.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-347-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 98.74 906.47 103.73 575.32 877.71 107.09 127.51 United States : 14.44 265.71 2.93 155.09 204.55 51.52 27.01 Total foreign : 84.31 640.76 100.80 420.23 673.15 55.57 100.50 Major exporters 4/ : 6.48 66.85 1.26 32.85 41.91 23.60 9.07 Argentina : 0.71 18.93 0.08 4.79 6.78 11.84 1.11 Australia : 0.66 10.15 0.01 4.50 5.74 4.41 0.67 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 19.14 21.77 5.40 4.85 Major importers 5/ : 25.18 197.43 64.70 171.89 234.43 24.85 28.03 EU-15 : 9.83 103.75 16.90 72.58 95.52 22.79 12.17 East. Europe : 5.17 49.96 1.85 38.22 49.69 1.93 5.37 Japan : 2.18 0.24 20.66 16.44 20.85 0.00 2.22 Mexico : 3.43 26.49 5.37 15.87 31.55 0.04 3.70 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.31 3.99 13.41 18.33 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.49 8.80 7.03 9.18 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 35.70 141.32 2.11 89.55 128.59 4.00 46.54 FSU-12 6/ : 4.25 52.02 1.71 33.69 53.69 1.40 2.89 Russia : 1.49 31.65 0.83 19.92 32.64 0.35 0.98 Ukraine : 1.74 9.51 0.03 5.70 10.19 0.28 0.81 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 127.51 881.10 99.33 581.25 873.33 100.63 135.28 United States : 27.01 260.43 2.94 154.97 206.97 45.25 38.15 Total foreign : 100.50 620.67 96.39 426.27 666.36 55.37 97.12 Major exporters 4/ : 9.07 67.31 2.04 35.38 46.18 22.34 9.90 Argentina : 1.11 24.67 0.01 6.44 9.12 14.26 2.41 Australia : 0.67 9.47 0.01 4.40 5.63 3.09 1.44 Canada : 4.85 25.12 1.52 19.88 23.44 3.75 4.30 Major importers 5/ : 28.03 206.93 62.92 174.49 235.37 22.22 40.30 EU-15 : 12.17 109.39 16.36 75.34 97.27 18.05 22.61 East. Europe : 5.37 58.58 1.07 42.01 53.38 3.10 8.55 Japan : 2.22 0.20 21.03 16.28 20.69 0.00 2.76 Mexico : 3.70 23.16 7.93 16.49 31.73 0.50 2.56 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.18 3.31 11.42 16.11 0.57 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 7.60 6.06 8.31 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 46.54 114.65 1.76 93.83 129.55 6.20 27.20 FSU-12 6/ : 2.89 67.72 1.49 37.69 57.90 3.04 11.17 Russia : 0.98 40.85 0.61 20.99 33.84 1.55 7.05 Ukraine : 0.81 15.35 0.00 8.23 12.73 0.98 2.46 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-347-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 136.39 880.54 100.92 576.48 875.21 102.98 141.72 February : 135.27 880.84 100.80 575.40 874.85 103.79 141.26 United States : January : 38.15 271.55 2.73 158.63 212.64 48.82 50.98 February : 38.15 271.55 2.87 158.64 212.65 49.20 50.72 Total foreign : January : 98.24 608.99 98.18 417.86 662.57 54.16 90.74 February : 97.12 609.29 97.93 416.76 662.20 54.59 90.54 Major exporters 4/ : January : 10.40 61.65 1.19 35.93 45.66 18.64 8.94 February : 9.90 62.85 1.20 35.33 46.16 19.04 8.75 Argentina Jan : 2.41 17.49 0.01 6.37 8.48 10.16 1.28 Feb : 2.41 18.49 0.01 6.37 8.98 10.26 1.68 Australia Jan : 1.44 8.11 0.01 4.46 5.64 2.93 0.99 Feb : 1.44 8.31 0.01 4.46 5.64 3.23 0.89 Canada Jan : 4.50 26.50 0.76 20.74 23.58 3.55 4.63 Feb : 4.30 26.50 0.77 20.14 23.58 3.55 4.44 Major importers 5/ : January : 40.47 197.58 61.46 170.26 232.35 28.11 39.04 February : 40.30 198.68 60.84 169.46 231.83 27.93 40.06 EU-15 Jan : 22.78 104.15 18.40 74.00 96.01 25.46 23.86 Feb : 22.60 104.15 17.09 72.07 94.30 24.53 25.02 East. Europe Jan : 8.55 50.36 0.74 39.93 51.18 2.25 6.21 Feb : 8.55 50.76 0.64 39.66 50.93 2.95 6.06 Japan Jan : 2.76 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.59 Feb : 2.76 0.23 20.39 16.39 20.79 0.00 2.59 Mexico Jan : 2.56 25.10 7.07 16.53 32.22 0.10 2.41 Feb : 2.56 25.40 7.07 16.78 32.52 0.10 2.41 Southeast Asia Jan : 1.04 15.25 2.75 11.74 17.30 0.30 1.44 Feb : 1.04 15.65 2.75 12.09 17.64 0.35 1.46 South Korea Jan : 0.50 0.49 6.80 5.10 7.31 0.00 0.49 Feb : 0.50 0.49 7.30 5.60 7.81 0.00 0.49 Selected other : China Jan : 27.20 135.65 2.40 95.40 130.85 4.10 30.30 Feb : 27.20 135.65 2.70 95.60 131.15 4.10 30.30 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 11.62 39.81 2.63 28.46 49.07 1.18 3.82 Feb : 11.17 37.54 2.23 27.94 46.77 1.39 2.78 Russia Jan : 7.05 20.90 1.75 15.60 28.50 0.20 1.00 Feb : 7.05 18.95 1.35 14.65 26.55 0.20 0.60 Ukraine Jan : 2.46 10.30 0.00 5.70 10.50 0.65 1.61 Feb : 2.46 10.15 0.00 6.34 10.70 0.87 1.05 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-347-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 69.78 590.68 71.06 392.46 567.96 73.31 92.50 United States : 10.82 234.52 0.34 134.67 177.64 45.60 22.43 Total foreign : 58.96 356.17 70.72 257.80 390.32 27.71 70.06 Major exporters 4/ : 2.60 24.51 0.11 6.78 11.27 12.75 3.20 Argentina : 0.40 15.50 0.00 2.78 4.32 10.83 0.75 South Africa : 2.20 9.01 0.11 4.00 6.95 1.92 2.45 Major importers 5/ : 12.62 94.38 48.28 92.67 131.78 9.73 13.78 EU-15 : 2.33 34.79 10.17 27.50 35.96 8.06 3.28 Japan : 1.07 0.00 15.96 12.00 16.10 0.00 0.93 Mexico : 2.60 18.92 3.14 7.10 22.17 0.04 2.45 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.11 3.99 13.22 18.12 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.07 8.34 6.64 8.30 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 34.70 127.47 0.08 86.00 113.35 3.89 45.00 FSU-12 6/ : 1.58 5.02 0.43 3.55 5.93 0.30 0.80 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.19 0.44 1.29 0.00 0.16 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 92.50 574.16 70.70 406.99 580.21 71.83 86.44 United States : 22.43 233.86 0.22 139.83 185.09 38.21 33.22 Total foreign : 70.06 340.29 70.47 267.16 395.12 33.61 53.22 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 26.91 0.35 8.20 13.35 13.75 3.36 Argentina : 0.75 19.36 0.00 3.90 6.00 12.50 1.61 South Africa : 2.45 7.55 0.35 4.30 7.35 1.25 1.75 Major importers 5/ : 13.78 100.93 47.17 94.91 132.61 12.50 16.77 EU-15 : 3.28 38.60 10.22 31.09 38.82 8.91 4.38 Japan : 0.93 0.00 16.42 11.80 15.90 0.00 1.45 Mexico : 2.45 17.00 4.37 7.07 21.82 0.50 1.50 Southeast Asia : 1.24 12.98 3.31 11.23 15.91 0.57 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.53 6.05 7.98 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 45.00 104.30 0.28 91.00 117.41 6.17 26.00 FSU-12 6/ : 0.80 10.66 0.43 6.89 9.15 0.60 2.14 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.19 1.55 2.49 0.00 0.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-347-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 86.94 594.73 69.56 409.15 583.61 70.78 98.06 February : 86.44 596.83 69.83 409.57 585.28 71.34 97.99 United States : January : 33.22 247.94 0.25 144.79 192.29 43.18 45.95 February : 33.22 247.94 0.31 144.79 192.29 43.82 45.36 Total foreign : January : 53.72 346.79 69.31 264.37 391.33 27.60 52.11 February : 53.22 348.89 69.52 264.78 393.00 27.52 52.63 Major exporters 4/ : January : 3.66 22.50 0.25 7.90 12.75 11.00 2.66 February : 3.36 23.50 0.25 7.90 13.25 11.00 2.86 Argentina Jan : 1.61 13.50 0.00 3.90 5.50 9.00 0.61 Feb : 1.61 14.50 0.00 3.90 6.00 9.00 1.11 South Africa Jan : 2.05 9.00 0.25 4.00 7.25 2.00 2.05 Feb : 1.75 9.00 0.25 4.00 7.25 2.00 1.75 Major importers 5/ : January : 16.95 92.43 45.68 91.62 130.24 11.71 13.11 February : 16.77 93.33 45.74 91.77 130.74 11.44 13.66 EU-15 Jan : 4.56 34.06 11.57 30.52 38.01 9.54 2.64 Feb : 4.38 34.06 10.63 29.32 37.18 8.61 3.28 Japan Jan : 1.45 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.26 Feb : 1.45 0.00 16.00 12.10 16.20 0.00 1.26 Mexico Jan : 1.50 18.00 4.25 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Feb : 1.50 18.00 4.25 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Southeast Asia Jan : 1.04 15.05 2.75 11.55 17.10 0.30 1.44 Feb : 1.04 15.45 2.75 11.90 17.44 0.35 1.46 South Korea Jan : 0.50 0.09 6.50 4.90 6.60 0.00 0.49 Feb : 0.50 0.09 7.00 5.40 7.10 0.00 0.49 Selected other : China Jan : 26.00 124.00 0.25 93.00 117.25 4.00 29.00 Feb : 26.00 124.00 0.35 93.00 117.35 4.00 29.00 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 1.96 4.89 0.89 4.13 6.29 0.25 1.20 Feb : 2.14 5.09 0.89 4.45 6.50 0.25 1.37 Russia Jan : 0.56 1.00 0.65 1.25 2.05 0.00 0.16 Feb : 0.56 0.80 0.65 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-347-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 3/ : 49.82 380.34 16.76 379.48 20.15 50.69 United States : 0.81 5.46 0.32 3.23 2.50 0.87 Total foreign : 49.01 374.88 16.44 376.25 17.65 49.82 Major exporters 4/ : 12.37 117.28 0.00 106.54 12.46 10.65 Thailand : 0.85 13.66 0.00 8.55 5.26 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.74 3.27 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.72 51.62 7.49 59.71 1.33 5.79 Indonesia : 2.62 32.08 0.81 33.98 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China : 21.73 136.57 0.33 132.13 0.94 25.56 Japan : 2.48 9.41 0.50 9.25 0.10 3.05 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 3/ : 50.69 384.33 23.53 383.86 27.28 51.16 United States : 0.87 5.98 0.29 3.45 2.78 0.90 Total foreign : 49.82 378.36 23.24 380.42 24.50 50.25 Major exporters 4/ : 10.65 120.37 0.00 104.37 16.24 10.41 Thailand : 0.71 15.05 0.00 8.60 6.37 0.79 Vietnam : 0.00 18.87 0.00 15.10 3.78 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.79 48.24 13.13 61.05 1.22 4.89 Indonesia : 1.53 30.23 5.90 35.46 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 25.56 140.49 0.25 135.85 3.73 26.71 Japan : 3.05 9.12 0.60 9.20 0.60 2.97 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 51.65 377.81 21.13 385.14 22.79 44.32 February : 51.16 377.69 21.25 385.04 22.79 43.80 United States : January : 0.90 6.14 0.29 3.54 2.84 0.95 February : 0.90 6.14 0.29 3.54 2.81 0.98 Total foreign : January : 50.75 371.67 20.85 381.60 19.95 43.37 February : 50.25 371.54 20.96 381.50 19.98 42.82 Major exporters 4/ : January : 10.52 118.40 0.00 106.30 13.85 8.77 February : 10.41 118.45 0.00 106.35 13.85 8.66 Thailand Jan : 0.79 14.30 0.00 8.70 5.50 0.89 Feb : 0.79 14.30 0.00 8.70 5.50 0.89 Vietnam Jan : 0.00 18.50 0.00 15.00 3.50 0.00 Feb : 0.00 18.50 0.00 15.00 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : January : 4.85 52.85 9.77 61.19 1.21 5.07 February : 4.89 52.60 9.97 61.19 1.21 5.06 Indonesia Jan : 2.20 33.00 2.00 35.20 0.00 2.00 Feb : 2.20 33.00 2.00 35.20 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Jan : 26.95 133.00 0.30 137.00 1.25 22.00 Feb : 26.71 133.00 0.30 137.00 1.25 21.76 Japan Jan : 2.97 8.10 0.70 9.20 0.40 2.17 Feb : 2.97 8.10 0.70 9.20 0.40 2.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-347-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 17.51 131.68 36.39 115.51 135.74 36.96 12.88 United States : 4.99 64.78 0.24 39.08 42.43 24.00 3.59 Total foreign : 12.51 66.90 36.15 76.43 93.31 12.96 9.29 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.77 1.20 31.49 33.86 11.32 6.80 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.56 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.80 0.90 19.90 21.68 8.42 3.40 Major importers 4/ : 1.76 16.40 27.43 31.32 43.24 0.56 1.80 EU-15 : 0.82 1.14 15.31 14.67 16.09 0.35 0.84 Japan : 0.55 0.15 5.04 3.81 5.11 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.69 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 12.88 156.30 40.22 126.87 149.61 40.34 19.44 United States : 3.59 73.18 0.14 43.46 47.78 23.69 5.44 Total foreign : 9.29 83.12 40.08 83.41 101.83 16.66 14.00 Major exporters 3/ : 6.80 53.00 2.70 33.50 36.55 14.27 11.68 Argentina : 3.40 18.70 1.00 13.00 13.85 3.17 6.08 Brazil : 3.40 31.50 1.70 20.00 22.10 8.90 5.60 Major importers 4/ : 1.80 18.35 29.90 35.04 47.43 0.94 1.68 EU-15 : 0.84 1.57 16.87 16.34 17.71 0.75 0.82 Japan : 0.64 0.15 4.87 3.72 5.02 0.00 0.63 China : 0.00 14.73 2.94 10.40 17.50 0.17 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 19.19 154.76 38.90 129.37 151.17 38.81 22.87 February : 19.44 156.31 38.95 129.75 151.68 38.81 24.20 United States : January : 5.44 75.03 0.16 43.41 47.43 22.59 10.61 February : 5.44 75.03 0.16 43.27 47.43 22.04 11.16 Total foreign : January : 13.75 79.73 38.74 85.96 103.75 16.22 12.26 February : 14.00 81.28 38.78 86.48 104.26 16.77 13.04 Major exporters 3/ : January : 11.43 50.10 1.40 36.00 38.95 14.05 9.93 February : 11.68 51.60 1.40 36.30 39.38 14.60 10.70 Argentina Jan : 6.08 17.50 0.40 14.70 15.65 3.20 5.13 Feb : 6.08 18.00 0.40 15.00 16.08 3.00 5.40 Brazil Jan : 5.35 29.50 1.00 20.70 22.60 8.45 4.80 Feb : 5.60 30.50 1.00 20.70 22.60 9.20 5.30 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.68 17.45 29.53 34.38 46.29 0.70 1.66 February : 1.68 17.45 29.58 34.51 46.33 0.70 1.68 EU-15 Jan : 0.82 1.74 15.80 15.70 16.95 0.52 0.88 Feb : 0.82 1.74 16.00 15.90 17.15 0.52 0.88 Japan Jan : 0.63 0.18 4.70 3.65 4.96 0.00 0.54 Feb : 0.63 0.18 4.60 3.54 4.85 0.00 0.56 China Jan : 0.00 13.50 3.60 10.13 16.92 0.18 0.00 Feb : 0.00 13.50 3.60 10.13 16.92 0.18 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-347-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 4.31 91.81 34.35 92.74 33.96 3.77 United States : 0.19 31.04 0.09 24.78 6.34 0.19 Total foreign : 4.12 60.77 34.26 67.96 27.61 3.58 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.65 0.20 6.36 21.79 1.08 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.72 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.84 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.58 2.45 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 19.63 23.32 38.65 4.54 1.20 EU-15 : 1.12 11.62 14.71 22.08 4.49 0.88 China : 0.00 6.95 3.60 10.53 0.02 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.77 100.77 36.46 100.36 36.94 3.69 United States : 0.19 34.63 0.05 26.21 8.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.58 66.14 36.40 74.16 28.47 3.50 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 30.12 0.10 7.24 22.66 1.41 Argentina : 0.25 10.60 0.00 0.39 9.86 0.60 Brazil : 0.84 15.73 0.10 5.55 10.30 0.81 India : 0.00 3.80 0.00 1.30 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 22.16 24.83 42.68 4.49 1.02 EU-15 : 0.88 12.75 16.34 24.65 4.46 0.86 China : 0.00 8.31 4.07 12.36 0.02 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 3.76 102.43 38.57 102.45 38.55 3.76 February : 3.69 102.76 38.57 102.53 38.59 3.90 United States : January : 0.20 34.30 0.05 26.85 7.48 0.20 February : 0.20 34.25 0.05 27.08 7.17 0.25 Total foreign : January : 3.56 68.13 38.52 75.60 31.06 3.56 February : 3.50 68.51 38.52 75.45 31.43 3.66 Major exporters 3/ : January : 1.41 32.10 0.10 7.04 25.13 1.44 February : 1.41 32.34 0.10 6.86 25.50 1.49 Argentina Jan : 0.60 11.98 0.00 0.40 11.58 0.60 Feb : 0.60 12.22 0.00 0.43 11.75 0.65 Brazil Jan : 0.81 16.28 0.10 5.75 10.60 0.84 Feb : 0.81 16.28 0.10 5.55 10.80 0.84 India Jan : 0.00 3.84 0.00 0.89 2.95 0.00 Feb : 0.00 3.84 0.00 0.89 2.95 0.00 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.08 21.48 25.96 42.96 4.44 1.13 February : 1.02 21.68 25.96 43.16 4.44 1.07 EU-15 Jan : 0.92 12.22 17.14 25.01 4.29 0.99 Feb : 0.86 12.38 17.64 25.66 4.29 0.93 China Jan : 0.00 8.10 4.40 12.49 0.01 0.00 Feb : 0.00 8.10 3.90 12.00 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-347-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 2.64 20.68 5.88 20.71 5.92 2.55 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.47 0.92 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 13.53 5.85 14.24 5.00 1.86 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.27 0.64 4.50 4.40 0.85 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.72 0.18 2.60 1.29 0.38 EU-15 : 0.20 2.63 0.46 1.80 1.32 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 2.05 1.93 3.80 0.08 0.47 China : 0.35 1.39 1.67 2.89 0.08 0.45 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.02 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.55 22.95 6.80 22.88 6.79 2.64 United States : 0.69 8.23 0.03 6.92 1.40 0.63 Total foreign : 1.86 14.72 6.78 15.96 5.40 2.01 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.93 0.69 4.67 4.88 0.92 Argentina : 0.30 2.25 0.00 0.10 2.11 0.34 Brazil : 0.38 3.74 0.20 2.72 1.18 0.42 EU-15 : 0.17 2.94 0.49 1.84 1.60 0.16 Major importers 4/ : 0.47 2.52 2.11 4.47 0.04 0.60 China : 0.45 1.66 1.65 3.15 0.04 0.58 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.02 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 2.64 23.38 7.07 23.70 7.02 2.36 February : 2.64 23.48 7.10 23.77 7.10 2.36 United States : January : 0.63 8.20 0.03 7.01 1.23 0.62 February : 0.63 8.20 0.03 7.08 1.16 0.62 Total foreign : January : 2.01 15.18 7.04 16.70 5.80 1.74 February : 2.01 15.29 7.07 16.69 5.94 1.74 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.92 9.23 0.71 4.74 5.22 0.89 February : 0.92 9.32 0.71 4.70 5.36 0.88 Argentina Jan : 0.34 2.55 0.00 0.11 2.44 0.34 Feb : 0.34 2.60 0.00 0.11 2.48 0.35 Brazil Jan : 0.42 3.86 0.21 2.78 1.32 0.40 Feb : 0.42 3.86 0.21 2.73 1.37 0.39 EU-15 Jan : 0.16 2.82 0.50 1.86 1.47 0.15 Feb : 0.16 2.86 0.50 1.86 1.51 0.15 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.60 2.50 2.28 4.91 0.05 0.42 February : 0.60 2.50 2.28 4.91 0.05 0.42 China Jan : 0.58 1.62 1.75 3.50 0.05 0.40 Feb : 0.58 1.62 1.75 3.50 0.05 0.40 Pakistan Jan : 0.02 0.01 0.28 0.28 0.00 0.02 Feb : 0.02 0.01 0.28 0.28 0.00 0.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-347-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World : 35.48 89.56 29.06 89.08 26.83 0.25 37.95 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total foreign : 32.88 70.61 28.65 77.95 19.96 0.25 33.98 Major exporters 5/ : 11.83 39.56 0.57 24.09 15.94 0.07 11.87 Pakistan : 1.36 7.32 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.02 1.82 India : 5.05 13.92 0.02 13.12 1.19 0.00 4.68 Central Asia 6/ : 2.02 6.57 0.01 1.10 6.03 0.00 1.47 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.42 3.67 0.01 0.30 3.31 0.00 0.49 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.48 5.35 0.23 1.30 4.41 0.02 2.33 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.38 0.00 0.95 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 19.21 27.26 22.87 46.39 2.45 0.18 20.32 Brazil : 1.15 1.29 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.96 Mexico : 0.34 1.08 0.95 1.60 0.45 0.04 0.28 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.35 0.01 0.00 14.76 Europe : 2.03 1.95 6.22 6.65 1.61 0.05 1.88 Turkey : 0.54 3.60 1.36 4.74 0.21 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.95 0.05 8.31 8.15 0.18 0.10 1.88 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World : 37.95 91.57 26.77 88.36 26.56 0.25 41.12 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.01 11.35 7.50 0.04 3.89 Total foreign : 33.98 72.78 26.76 77.01 19.06 0.21 37.24 Major exporters 5/ : 11.87 39.86 0.52 23.79 15.84 0.07 12.56 Pakistan : 1.82 7.18 0.12 7.10 0.38 0.03 1.61 India : 4.68 12.26 0.15 12.58 0.31 0.00 4.19 Central Asia 6/ : 1.47 7.21 0.01 1.09 5.68 0.00 1.92 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.49 4.32 4/ 0.31 3.59 0.00 0.91 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.33 5.70 0.23 1.30 4.50 0.02 2.44 Australia : 0.95 3.06 4/ 0.21 2.71 0.00 1.09 Argentina : 1.04 1.35 0.03 0.45 1.00 0.00 0.97 Major importers : 20.32 29.69 20.70 45.78 1.92 0.14 22.87 Brazil : 0.96 1.75 1.85 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 0.28 0.96 1.60 2.05 0.25 0.04 0.51 China : 14.76 21.10 1.83 20.80 0.03 0.00 16.86 Europe : 1.88 2.13 6.22 6.75 1.38 0.05 2.05 Turkey : 0.56 3.70 1.45 5.00 0.10 0.00 0.61 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.05 7.75 7.78 0.16 0.05 1.69 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.92 1.85 0.00 0.05 0.14 South Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.32 1.38 0.05 0.00 0.41 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.61 million bales in 1996/97 and 1.81 million in 1997/98. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-347-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World : January : 41.10 85.11 24.75 85.65 24.46 0.25 40.61 February : 41.12 84.86 24.50 84.61 23.95 0.32 41.60 United States : January : 3.89 13.80 0.35 10.50 4.30 0.03 3.20 February : 3.89 13.80 0.35 10.40 4.20 0.03 3.40 Total foreign : January : 37.22 71.32 24.40 75.15 20.16 0.22 37.41 February : 37.24 71.07 24.15 74.21 19.75 0.29 38.20 Major exporters 5/ : January : 12.53 39.57 0.53 23.77 15.72 0.07 13.07 February : 12.56 39.10 0.94 23.36 15.70 0.07 13.47 Pakistan Jan : 1.49 7.20 0.20 7.20 0.10 0.03 1.57 Feb : 1.61 6.90 0.30 7.20 0.10 0.03 1.48 India Jan : 4.27 13.00 0.13 12.30 0.40 0.00 4.70 Feb : 4.19 13.00 0.40 12.00 0.20 0.00 5.39 Central Asia 6/Jan : 1.92 6.62 0.01 1.16 5.33 0.00 2.06 Feb : 1.92 6.62 0.01 1.06 5.53 0.00 1.96 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Jan : 0.91 4.26 4/ 0.34 3.76 0.00 1.07 Feb : 0.91 4.04 4/ 0.33 3.67 0.00 0.95 S. Hemis 8/ Jan : 2.44 5.94 0.18 1.31 4.73 0.02 2.50 Feb : 2.44 5.99 0.18 1.31 4.81 0.02 2.47 Australia Jan : 1.09 3.30 4/ 0.23 3.00 0.00 1.17 Feb : 1.09 3.40 4/ 0.23 3.10 0.00 1.17 Argentina Jan : 0.97 1.40 0.01 0.45 1.00 0.00 0.92 Feb : 0.97 1.40 0.01 0.45 1.00 0.00 0.92 Major importers Jan : 22.87 28.47 18.51 44.11 3.20 0.14 22.40 Feb : 22.87 28.76 17.88 43.63 2.85 0.21 22.81 Brazil Jan : 1.16 1.80 1.45 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.16 Feb : 1.16 1.80 1.45 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.16 Mexico Jan : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 Feb : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.20 0.04 0.52 China Jan : 16.86 19.80 0.65 19.80 1.30 0.00 16.21 Feb : 16.86 19.80 0.65 19.80 0.90 0.00 16.61 Europe Jan : 2.05 2.11 6.30 6.81 1.40 0.05 2.21 Feb : 2.05 2.16 6.17 6.68 1.40 0.13 2.18 Turkey Jan : 0.61 3.70 0.90 4.40 0.20 0.00 0.61 Feb : 0.61 3.94 0.35 4.00 0.20 0.00 0.70 Sel. Asia 9/ Jan : 1.69 0.05 7.76 7.65 0.15 0.05 1.64 Feb : 1.69 0.05 7.81 7.70 0.15 0.05 1.64 Indonesia Jan : 0.14 0.02 2.00 1.95 0.00 0.05 0.16 Feb : 0.14 0.02 2.00 1.95 0.00 0.05 0.16 S. Korea Jan : 0.41 4/ 1.33 1.33 0.05 0.00 0.36 Feb : 0.41 4/ 1.33 1.33 0.05 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.60 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-347-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1997 : Annual : 25384 17244 43209 27271 5478 33258 76467 6473 156.1 : 1998 : I : 6215 4687 11038 6845 1290 8258 19296 1645 39.2 II : 6463 4430 11015 6991 1321 8453 19468 1644 40.9 III : 6638 4625 11380 6942 1302 8375 19755 1658 38.7 IV : 6340 5239 11703 7046 1366 8540 20243 1710 39.1 Annual : Jan Est : 25666 18992 45156 27853 5238 33611 78767 6630 157.6 Feb Est : 25656 18981 45136 27824 5279 33626 78762 6657 157.9 : 1999 : I *: 6275 4900 11297 7175 1175 8485 19782 1680 39.9 II *: 6325 4650 11088 7400 1325 8870 19958 1685 41.5 III *: 6325 4600 11036 7400 1375 8910 19946 1705 39.5 IV *: 6050 4725 10895 7400 1375 8905 19800 1750 39.4 Annual : Jan Proj : 24275 18875 43616 29375 5250 35170 78786 6790 160.6 Feb Proj : 24975 18875 44316 29375 5250 35170 79486 6820 160.6 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1997 : Annual : 66.32 51.40 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.34 : 1998 : I : 61.73 34.62 56.4 55.1 79.0 14.60 II : 64.16 39.34 61.0 59.1 66.5 13.73 III : 58.97 33.22 70.4 63.4 76.0 15.37 IV : 61.06 19.48 64.5 71.2 81.7 17.83 Annual : Jan Est : 61.48 31.74 63.1 62.2 75.8 15.39 Feb Est : 61.48 31.67 63.1 62.2 75.8 15.38 1999 : I *: 62-64 25-27 57-59 56-58 75-77 16.55-16.85 II *: 64-68 32-34 57-61 58-62 63-67 13.00-13.60 III *: 63-69 36-38 58-62 61-67 67-73 12.55-13.45 IV *: 64-70 38-42 56-60 69-75 77-83 14.00-15.00 Annual : Jan Proj : 68-72 33-35 57-61 61-65 70-75 14.15-14.95 Feb Proj : 63-68 33-35 57-61 61-65 70-75 14.05-14.75 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-347-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1997 : 377 25490 2343 28210 2136 465 25609 66.9 1998 Est. Jan : 465 25772 2611 28848 2158 400 26290 68.1 Feb : 465 25762 2611 28838 2158 395 26285 68.1 1999 Proj. Jan : 400 24381 2790 27571 2340 350 24881 63.8 Feb : 395 25081 2705 28181 2340 370 25471 65.4 : PORK : 1997 : 366 17274 633 18273 1044 408 16821 48.7 1998 Est. Jan : 408 19022 695 20125 1232 500 18393 52.8 Feb : 408 19011 695 20114 1232 586 18296 52.5 1999 Proj. Jan : 500 18905 700 20105 1355 475 18275 52.0 Feb : 586 18905 700 20191 1355 475 18361 52.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1997 : 759 43358 3059 47176 3185 895 43096 117.8 1998 Est. Jan : 895 45305 3400 49600 3395 917 45288 122.9 Feb : 895 45285 3413 49593 3395 998 45200 122.6 1999 Proj. Jan : 917 43765 3575 48257 3700 842 43715 117.6 Feb : 998 44465 3518 48981 3700 862 44419 119.4 : BROILERS : 1997 : 641 27041 5 27687 4664 607 22416 72.7 1998 Est. Jan : 607 27613 5 28225 4466 700 23059 74.2 Feb : 607 27584 5 28196 4516 712 22968 73.9 1999 Proj. Jan : 700 29116 4 29820 4325 750 24745 78.8 Feb : 712 29116 4 29832 4425 750 24657 78.5 : TURKEYS : 1997 : 328 5412 1 5741 598 415 4727 17.6 1998 Est. Jan : 415 5174 1 5590 428 275 4886 18.1 Feb : 415 5215 1 5631 438 309 4883 18.1 1999 Proj. Jan : 275 5186 1 5462 430 250 4781 17.5 Feb : 309 5186 1 5496 430 250 4815 17.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1997 : 975 32964 6 33944 5646 1029 27268 90.8 1998 Est. Jan : 1029 33309 6 34344 5314 982 28046 92.6 Feb : 1029 33323 6 34358 5384 1027 27946 92.3 1999 Proj. Jan : 982 34848 5 35835 5167 1005 29662 96.9 Feb : 1027 34848 5 35880 5267 1005 29607 96.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1997 : 1734 76322 3065 81120 8831 1924 70364 208.6 1998 Est. Jan : 1924 78614 3406 83944 8709 1899 73335 215.5 Feb : 1924 78608 3419 83951 8779 2025 73147 214.9 1999 Proj. Jan : 1899 78613 3580 84092 8867 1847 73377 214.4 Feb : 2025 79313 3523 84861 8967 1867 74026 216.1 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-347-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1998 Projected : 1999 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1996 : 1997 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.2 8.5 7.4 7.4 8.0 8.4 Production : 6350.7 6473.1 6629.8 6657.0 6790.0 6820.0 Imports : 5.4 6.9 5.6 5.6 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6367.3 6488.5 6642.8 6670.0 6802.0 6832.4 : Use : Exports : 253.1 227.8 226.5 221.5 243.0 231.0 Hatching use : 863.8 894.8 921.6 921.6 970.0 970.0 Ending stocks : 8.5 7.4 8.0 8.4 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5241.8 5358.6 5486.7 5518.5 5584.0 5626.4 Per capita (number) : 236.8 240.0 243.7 245.1 245.6 247.5 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Proj 1/: 1998/99 Proj 1/ Commodity :1995/96:1996/97:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 Production : 153.8 155.9 157.0 156.9 159.9 159.9 Farm use : 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 152.3 154.5 155.6 155.5 158.6 158.6 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 159.7 162.2 165.6 165.5 168.1 168.1 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.7 155.6 159.1 159.0 162.0 162.0 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 1.1 2.7 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.3 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) : 13.50 11.88 13.28 13.28 13.45- 13.35- : 13.95 13.85 All milk 5/ : 14.49 13.53 14.56 14.56 15.15- 14.95- : 15.65 15.45 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 24 21 21 5 5 Cheese : 5 10 8 8 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 84 222 368 368 285 275 Dry whole milk : 7 7 15 15 9 9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-347-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 17-year record of the differences between the February projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the February projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.5 million tons (0.5%) ranging from -7.3 to 6.8 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 12 times and above 5 times. Reliability of February Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.5 2.5 -7.3 6.8 12 5 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 8 3 Foreign : 0.6 2.5 -7.3 6.8 12 5 Exports : World : 2.5 2.8 -10.9 5.0 10 7 U.S. : 3.3 1.1 -1.4 3.0 7 10 Foreign : 3.6 2.8 -9.5 4.1 13 4 Domestic use : World : 0.9 4.7 -9.7 9.1 9 8 U.S. : 3.8 1.2 -2.4 2.4 6 11 Foreign : 0.9 4.2 -8.2 8.5 9 8 Ending stocks : World : 3.0 3.6 -10.9 4.1 10 7 U.S. : 7.7 1.5 -4.4 3.2 11 6 Foreign : 3.3 2.8 -9.1 3.7 8 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.4 -17.6 7.3 12 5 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 10 3 Foreign : 1.1 6.5 -17.6 7.3 10 6 Exports : World : 3.8 3.8 -10.4 13.8 12 5 U.S. : 8.0 4.0 -8.7 12.2 9 8 Foreign : 5.8 3.0 -6.9 7.2 10 7 Domestic use : World : 1.0 8.3 -16.2 28.9 7 10 U.S. : 2.9 5.1 -17.3 11.5 6 11 Foreign : 1.1 6.7 -12.5 22.2 10 7 Ending stocks : World : 7.6 10.1 -29.9 16.4 14 3 U.S. : 10.0 6.1 -16.9 18.5 9 8 Foreign : 8.9 6.1 -20.3 9.7 14 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.4 4.3 -13.0 1.8 14 3 U.S. : 1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.1 6 1 Foreign : 1.4 4.3 -13.0 1.8 14 3 Exports : World : 7.7 1.3 -5.2 1.3 14 3 U.S. : 6.2 0.2 -0.5 0.2 8 7 Foreign : 8.8 1.2 -5.0 1.2 14 3 Domestic use : World : 1.2 3.7 -12.8 2.3 11 6 U.S. : 5.5 0.1 -0.3 0.4 8 9 Foreign : 1.2 3.7 -13.0 2.5 11 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.8 2.5 -7.5 4.0 13 4 U.S. : 14.1 0.2 -0.3 0.4 10 7 Foreign : 7.0 2.5 -7.3 4.0 13 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-347-30 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.6 1.8 -3.9 2.1 11 6 U.S. : 1.1 0.6 -1.6 1.8 7 7 Foreign : 3.1 1.6 -4.6 2.2 13 4 Exports : World : 3.1 0.9 -1.9 1.7 10 7 U.S. : 5.7 1.1 -2.2 3.7 9 8 Foreign : 14.3 1.2 -3.3 2.3 8 9 Domestic use : World : 2.0 2.2 -5.4 2.5 9 8 U.S. : 2.4 0.9 -3.0 1.0 12 5 Foreign : 2.3 1.7 -3.4 2.1 10 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.2 2.0 -3.9 5.1 9 8 U.S. : 20.3 1.6 -3.4 4.9 6 11 Foreign : 12.6 1.4 -2.8 3.1 10 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.0 1.7 -5.4 2.8 12 5 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 3 13 Foreign : 2.6 1.8 -5.7 2.7 12 5 Exports : World : 3.6 0.9 -2.5 0.9 9 8 U.S. : 7.3 0.4 -1.0 1.0 6 10 Foreign : 4.9 0.9 -3.5 1.0 9 8 Mill use : World : 1.8 1.5 -6.0 1.3 8 9 U.S. : 3.8 0.3 -0.9 0.3 14 3 Foreign : 1.9 1.4 -5.5 1.6 8 9 Ending stocks : World : 9.0 3.0 -6.0 7.9 7 9 U.S. : 11.2 0.5 -0.7 2.1 5 12 Foreign : 9.5 2.8 -6.2 7.4 9 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 17 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-347-31 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.1 3 -8 38 2 1 Exports : 8.1 135 -379 384 9 8 Domestic use : 3.0 173 -474 345 7 10 Ending stocks : 12.4 243 -635 838 10 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 14.8 35 -90 97 10 6 Domestic use : 9.3 45 -178 100 9 8 Ending stocks : 34.3 42 -69 148 6 11 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 8 2 Exports : 12.0 9 -35 23 6 10 Domestic use : 5.6 23 -38 70 9 7 Ending stocks : 9.4 17 -52 24 11 5 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 1 Exports : 36.8 1 -1 3 3 5 Domestic use : 3.2 13 -26 36 7 10 Ending stocks : 11.4 16 -47 21 10 7 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.4 710 -2328 717 13 4 Exports : 7.7 517 -1900 941 12 5 Domestic use : 1.9 428 -1200 525 13 4 Ending stocks : 35.7 85 -214 208 6 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.4 344 -1173 365 12 5 Exports : 18.3 275 -700 814 7 10 Domestic use : 2.1 255 -735 300 13 4 Ending stocks : 17.5 248 -692 415 9 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.4 563 -741 1613 10 5 Pork : 3.2 508 -1240 1717 9 6 Broilers : 1.6 318 -729 484 10 5 Turkeys : 2.2 93 -177 161 9 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.5 89 -140 169 9 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.5 -3.2 3.6 6 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 17 for crops and 15 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1997 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1996/97 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ---- END OF FILE ----