ISSN:1554-9089 WASDE-434 May 12, 2006 Note: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2006/07 season. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2007 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Projections reflect economic analysis, normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: The 2006/07 U.S. wheat outlook is for a decrease in production, exports, and stocks, and higher prices. Total production is forecast down 11 percent from 2005/06 to 1.9 billion bushels. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 12 percent because of increased abandonment and reduced yields. Spring and durum production is projected at 550 million bushels, based on trend yields and the most recent 10- year average of harvest-to-planted ratios. Total wheat supplies are down 8 percent. Total wheat use is projected to decrease 5 percent in 2006/07, mostly because of lower exports. Exports of 900 million bushes are down 100 million bushels, due to tight U.S. supplies. U.S. ending stocks of 447 million bushels are down 18 percent. The 2006/07 price range is $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel, compared with an estimated $3.42 for 2005/06. For 2005/06, wheat exports are reduced 15 million bushels to reflect a slowdown in late-season shipments. The 2006/07 global wheat outlook includes lower production, consumption, and stocks. Exports are down slightly. Wheat production, projected at 600 million tons, is down 3 percent while consumption is down 2 percent. Global ending stocks are projected to be the lowest in 25 years. Lower exports for Russia and Ukraine are partially offset by increases for Argentina, Australia, Canada, and EU-25. Imports are lower for North Africa and EU-25, due to improved domestic production. India's wheat crop is projected at 68 million tons, down from 72 million in 2005/06. Imports for India are projected at 4.5 million tons, up from 200,000 in 2005/06. COARSE GRAINS: The 2006/07 U.S. outlook for coarse grains includes decreased feed grain supplies, higher use, falling stocks, and higher prices. The 2006/07 corn crop is projected at 10.55 billion bushels, 5 percent below last year. Total corn supply, at 12.8 billion bushels, is down 3 percent as the smaller corn crop is only partially offset by higher beginning stocks. Projected 2006/07 corn use expands 6 percent to a record 11.6 billion bushels. Domestic use for ethanol production increases 34 percent from last year to 2.15 billion bushels while exports increase 6 percent to 2.15 billion. The export increase is due to reduced foreign competition and lower global feed-quality wheat supplies. Ending stocks of 1.1 billion bushels are down by about half from year-earlier levels. The projected price range for corn is $2.25 to $2.65 per bushel, compared with $1.95 to $2.05 for 2005/06. Projected stocks of sorghum, barley, and oats are below year-earlier levels, and prices for these crops are higher. For 2005/06, corn exports are increased 75 million bushels to reflect recent strength in sales and shipments. The 2006/07 global coarse grains outlook includes slightly lower production, increased consumption, and lower ending stocks. Smaller coarse grain crops in the United States more than offset higher foreign production. Production increases are significant for Argentina and EU-25. Global coarse grain trade is up slightly while consumption is up 2.7 percent. China's corn stocks continue to fall; global corn ending stocks drop 29 percent to 92 million tons, the lowest in more than 20 years. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2006/07 is projected at 205 million cwt, 18.2 million cwt below 2005/06, and the smallest crop since 2003/04. Planted area is estimated at 2.972 million acres and harvested area is projected at 2.951 million acres, both down about 12 percent from 2005. Average rice yield is projected at a near-record 6,947 pounds per acre, up 311 pounds per acre or nearly 5 percent above weather-reduced yields in 2005/06. Imports for 2006/07 are projected at a record 18 million cwt, up 2 million cwt from revised 2005/06. Domestic and residual use for 2006/07 is projected at a record 129.7 million cwt, 3 million cwt above 2005/06. Exports are projected at 103 million cwt, 13 million cwt below the revised 2005/06 projection. Tighter supplies and higher prices will constrain exports in the new marketing year. Ending stocks are projected at 24.6 million cwt, nearly 10 million cwt below revised 2005/06, and the lowest stocks since 1998/99. The projected seasonal-average price range for 2006/07 is $9.00 to $9.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $7.60 to $7.80 per cwt for 2005/06. Tighter domestic supplies along with higher global prices will help to support prices during the year. Global 2006/07 rice production is projected at a record 417 million tons, up 5.5 million from 2005/06. World consumption is projected at a record 423.2 million tons, up 5.1 million tons. Global exports are expected to be about the same as 2005/06. Ending stocks are expected to decline for the sixth consecutive year to 62 million tons, 6.1 million below 2005/06, and the lowest since 1982/83. The global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.6 percent, down from 16.3 percent in 2005/06, and the lowest since 1974/75. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2006/07 is projected at 94.7 million tons, down 2 percent from 2005/06. Soybean production is projected at 3,080 million bushels, down 6 million bushels from 2005/06. With soybean production projected near last season's level, most of the reduction comes from other oilseeds including sunflowerseed, cottonseed, peanuts, and canola. Soybean supplies are projected to reach a record 3,649 million bushels, up 9 percent from 2005/06 due to sharply higher beginning stocks. Soybean crush is projected to increase to 1,750 million bushels, reflecting sharply higher domestic soybean oil demand, a moderate increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance, and increased soybean meal export prospects. Although increased availability of corn by-products limits prospects for growth in domestic soybean meal use, domestic soybean oil disappearance is projected to increase 6 percent primarily due to rapidly expanding biodiesel production. Soybean exports are projected to increase to 1,090 million bushels for 2006/07. Large U.S. soybean supplies combined with lower- than-expected Brazilian stocks are projected to boost U.S. soybean exports to near-record levels. Ending stocks for 2006/07 are projected at a record 650 million bushels, up 85 million bushels from 2005/06. Global oilseed production for 2006/07 is projected at 390 million tons, down 0.7 million tons from 2005/06, the first year-to-year decline in global oilseed production since 1995/96. Lower production in the United States will be partly offset by a small increase in foreign production. The 2006/07 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $5.10 to $6.10 per bushel, compared with $5.65 per bushel in 2005/06. Despite projected record U.S. soybean stocks, prices are expected to remain firm mainly due to relatively strong corn and soybean oil prices. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $155 to $185 per short ton, compared with $175 per ton for 2005/06. Soybean oil prices are projected at 22.5 to 26.5 cents per pound compared with 23.0 cents per pound for 2005/06. Global oilseed output for 2005/06 is projected at 391 million tons, unchanged from last month. Brazil's soybean crop is reduced 0.5 million tons to 56.5 million tons, reflecting lower-than-expected yields as harvest nears completion. Largely offsetting the reduction in Brazil's soybean crop is an increase in copra production for the Philippines. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2006/07 is 11.5 million short tons, raw value, down from 11.9 million in 2005/06, mainly due to lower assumed imports, more than offsetting higher beginning stocks and production. Production of 8.2 million tons is up about 800,000 tons from 2005/06. Beet sugar production is higher, at 4.7 million tons, while cane sugar is up to 3.53 million tons. Imports under the sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ) are 1.32 million short tons reflecting the U.S. commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus a shortfall of 50,000 tons, and the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement. The Secretary will establish the actual TRQ level at a later date. Imports under the other programs, mainly for re-export, are 325,000 tons and other non-program imports are 175,000 tons. Projected use totals 10.62 million tons, comprising 10.25 million tons delivered for domestic food use, 165,000 tons for other domestic deliveries, and 200,000 tons of sugar exports. Year- ending stocks tighten to 870,000 million tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2006 and 2007 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. The suspension of beef imports by Japan is considered to be temporary pending the resolution of importer concerns. U.S. beef exports to South Korea are not forecast pending implementation of import regulations by South Korea. Total U.S. meat production in 2007 is projected to grow at a considerably slower rate than expected for 2006. Beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey are each forecast to increase around 2 percent next year. As cattle producers expand herds, growth in feedlot supplies and slaughter is expected to slow. In addition, after strong gains in cattle carcass weights in 2005 and 2006, weight gains are expected to be smaller next year. The pig crop in 2007 will expand slowly, and carcass weights will continue to rise gradually. Hog slaughter is expected to continue to be complemented by increasing imports of Canadian feeder pigs for finishing and slaughter in the United States. Broiler expansion in 2007 is forecast to slow as strong production gains, rising feed prices, and weaker 2006 prices result in moderate output next year. Turkey and egg production is forecast slightly higher. Meat production forecasts for 2006 are raised slightly from last month primarily because of higher expected beef output. Beef production through the spring and summer is raised because of high cattle-on-feed numbers that result in increased slaughter. Pork production is reduced slightly due to lower second-quarter slaughter. Broiler production is slightly higher because strong first-quarter output more than offsets lower second-quarter output implied by slowing chick placements. Hatchery data indicates stronger turkey production. Meat exports are forecast to increase in 2007. Beef exports are expected to continue to recover next year. The export outlook does not include shipments to South Korea. Record pork exports are forecast again, and broilers and turkeys continue to increase. Beef imports are forecast to fall below 2006 as domestic cow slaughter rises and foreign beef supplies tighten. Pork imports are forecast higher next year. Beef exports in 2006 are reduced from last month as the recommencement of shipments to Japan are pushed to later in the year. Broiler exports are raised slightly because of stronger- than-expected first quarter shipments. The suspension and subsequent reissuing of poultry import licenses by Russia does not change the 2006 broiler forecast. In 2007, beef and broiler prices are forecast higher than 2006, but hog and turkey prices are forecast lower. Increased demand for Choice beef result in firmer cattle prices, but larger supplies of pork are expected to pressure hog prices. Although 2007 broiler supplies are forecast to increase, slower production growth and improved demand are expected to support a modest price recovery. Turkey prices are forecast lower as higher production begins to weigh on the market. Cattle prices are reduced in 2006 because of increased production. Hog prices are reduced slightly because of a lower- than-expected April price. Broiler prices are lowered on weaker parts prices. Turkey prices are increased due to tight whole-bird supplies. Milk production is forecast to increase gradually in 2007 as weaker milk prices and higher feed costs lead to a reduction in dairy cow inventory. Milk per cow is expected to continue increasing but at a slower rate than in 2006. Domestic disappearance of fat and skim solids is expected to remain relatively robust, helping draw down commercial stocks and boosting butter and cheese prices. Although it is expected that commercial exports will help absorb much of the expected supplies of nonfat dry milk (NDM), 2007 prices are likely to be slightly weaker than in 2006 with increased sales to the CCC. Class III prices are forecast about $1.00 per cwt higher than 2006, but Class IV prices may only average about 25 cents per cwt higher. The all milk price is forecast at $12.85-$13.85 per cwt in 2007. Forecast milk production in 2006 is lowered as projected growth in milk per cow is slightly slower than last month. However, both fat and skim-solids basis commercial use in the first quarter may be weaker than previously forecast. In the face of weaker demand, product price forecasts are reduced and CCC net removals of NDM are increased slightly. With lower forecast cheese and whey prices, the Class III price forecast is reduced. Likewise, lower forecast butter and NDM prices result in a lower Class IV price. The all milk price forecast for 2006 is lowered to $12.35-$12.85 per cwt. COTTON: The first U.S. cotton projections for 2006/07 include lower production, domestic mill use, exports, and ending stocks compared with the current season. Production is forecast at 20.7 million bales, 13 percent below 2005/06. While the area indicated in Prospective Plantings is up slightly from last season, abandonment is forecast at 12 percent based on the 1996-2003 national average. Unusually low abandonment rates for the 2004 and 2005 crops are excluded from the projection due to the current severe dryness in Texas; Texas generally accounts for the majority of national cotton abandonment. The projected yield of 770 pounds per harvested acre is based on the most recent 4- year average. U.S. domestic mill use is projected at 5.8 million bales, a 3 percent reduction from 2005/06, as mills continue to lose market share to rising textile imports. Exports are projected at 16.5 million bales, also 3 percent below 2005/06, due mainly to supply limitations. Ending stocks are projected at 4.9 million bales, 22 percent of total use, which would be the tightest since 2003/04. The world 2006/07 projections show consumption increases outstripping production, resulting in a stocks decline of nearly 10 percent from 2005/06. Production is projected marginally higher at 115.0 million bales, as increases in foreign production more than offset the projected U.S. decline. World consumption is projected at 122.0 million bales, a 4 percent increase, reflecting continued robust world economic growth. China accounts for virtually all of the increase, rising nearly 10 percent. Projected China consumption of 51.0 million bales takes into account recent growth in yarn production and textile trade, as well as growth in China's domestic market due to rapid economic expansion. World trade is forecast about even with 2005/06's 43.5 million bales and includes 20.0 million bales of imports by China. World ending stocks are projected at 47.4 million bales. For 2005/06, the U.S. estimates reflect a marginal end-of-season adjustment in production, but are otherwise unchanged from last month. The 2005/06 world estimates reflect a modest reduction in ending stocks due to lower production and higher consumption. A 1.0-million-bale increase in China's consumption is partially offset by reductions for India and others. Trade estimates are adjusted for several countries. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. APPROVED BY: MIKE JOHANNS SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-434-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2004/05 : 2,046.30 2,405.19 240.33 2,000.81 404.39 2005/06 (Est.) : 1,999.89 2,404.28 240.77 2,022.31 381.98 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 1,981.87 2,363.85 239.20 2,042.99 320.86 Wheat : 2004/05 : 628.76 760.63 110.84 610.30 150.33 2005/06 (Est.) : 620.36 770.69 112.28 626.96 143.73 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 600.47 744.20 108.66 616.07 128.13 Coarse grains 4/ : 2004/05 : 1,014.85 1,155.71 101.45 976.32 179.39 2005/06 (Est.) : 968.02 1,147.40 100.60 977.25 170.15 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 964.39 1,134.54 102.76 1,003.76 130.78 Rice, milled : 2004/05 : 402.69 488.85 28.04 414.18 74.67 2005/06 (Est.) : 411.52 486.19 27.90 418.09 68.09 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 417.01 485.10 27.78 423.15 61.95 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2004/05 : 385.62 434.55 83.72 276.12 74.71 2005/06 (Est.) : 363.10 442.44 87.97 277.60 76.86 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 341.09 423.44 87.65 289.80 46.00 Wheat : 2004/05 : 58.74 75.53 28.92 31.91 14.70 2005/06 (Est.) : 57.28 74.16 27.22 32.06 14.88 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 50.97 68.44 24.49 31.79 12.16 Coarse grains 4/ : 2004/05 : 319.42 350.38 51.30 240.28 58.80 2005/06 (Est.) : 298.74 359.48 57.08 241.51 60.89 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 283.62 346.84 59.89 253.89 33.06 Rice, milled : 2004/05 : 7.46 8.64 3.50 3.93 1.21 2005/06 (Est.) : 7.09 8.81 3.68 4.04 1.09 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 6.51 8.17 3.27 4.12 0.78 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-434-9 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2004/05 : 1,660.68 1,970.64 156.61 1,724.69 329.68 2005/06 (Est.) : 1,636.79 1,961.84 152.80 1,744.70 305.12 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 1,640.78 1,940.40 151.55 1,753.19 274.87 Wheat : 2004/05 : 570.03 685.10 81.92 578.39 135.63 2005/06 (Est.) : 563.08 696.54 85.07 594.90 128.85 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 549.50 675.76 84.17 584.28 115.98 Coarse grains 5/ : 2004/05 : 695.43 805.33 50.15 736.04 120.59 2005/06 (Est.) : 669.28 787.93 43.52 735.74 109.26 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 680.78 787.71 42.88 749.87 97.72 Rice, milled : 2004/05 : 395.22 480.21 24.54 410.25 73.46 2005/06 (Est.) : 404.43 477.38 24.21 414.06 67.00 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 410.50 476.94 24.51 419.03 61.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2004/05 : 120.50 163.59 34.77 108.91 54.29 2005/06 (Est.) : 113.41 167.69 43.50 117.20 52.42 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 115.00 167.42 43.50 122.00 47.42 : United States 2004/05 : 23.25 26.79 14.41 6.69 5.54 2005/06 (Est.) : 23.89 29.46 17.00 6.00 6.50 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 20.70 27.23 16.50 5.80 4.90 : Foreign 3/ 2004/05 : 97.25 136.81 20.36 102.22 48.75 2005/06 (Est.) : 89.52 138.24 26.50 111.20 45.92 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 94.30 140.19 27.00 116.20 42.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-434-10 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2004/05 : 380.79 423.51 74.68 301.68 54.99 2005/06 (Est.) : 390.68 445.67 77.39 312.73 65.17 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 390.00 455.17 Oilmeals : 2004/05 : 205.61 212.88 60.01 203.50 8.34 2005/06 (Est.) : 212.09 220.44 62.67 211.70 7.49 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2004/05 : 111.07 119.14 41.79 108.91 9.09 2005/06 (Est.) : 115.16 124.25 44.05 114.73 8.38 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 2004/05 : 95.94 100.77 30.86 50.17 8.29 2005/06 (Est.) : 96.14 105.08 25.40 51.44 17.30 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 94.65 112.61 30.54 52.22 19.20 Oilmeals : 2004/05 : 39.25 41.08 6.94 33.93 0.22 2005/06 (Est.) : 39.29 41.14 6.63 34.23 0.28 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 40.33 42.33 7.11 34.93 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2004/05 : 9.75 12.37 0.84 10.40 1.13 2005/06 (Est.) : 10.28 13.58 0.83 11.17 1.58 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 10.13 13.93 0.82 11.69 1.42 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2004/05 : 284.85 322.74 43.82 251.52 46.70 2005/06 (Est.) : 294.54 340.58 51.98 261.29 47.88 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : 295.35 342.56 Oilmeals : 2004/05 : 166.35 171.80 53.07 169.57 8.13 2005/06 (Est.) : 172.80 179.29 56.05 177.47 7.21 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2004/05 : 101.32 106.77 40.95 98.51 7.96 2005/06 (Est.) : 104.88 110.67 43.23 103.55 6.79 2006/07 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-434-11 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.7 57.2 57.1 * Harvested : 50.0 50.1 46.1 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 43.2 42.0 40.6 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 546 540 547 Production : 2,158 2,105 1,873 Imports : 71 80 95 Supply, total : 2,775 2,725 2,515 Food : 905 910 915 Seed : 78 78 78 Feed and residual : 190 190 175 Domestic, total : 1,172 1,178 1,168 Exports : 1,063 1,000 900 Use, total : 2,235 2,178 2,068 Ending stocks : 540 547 447 CCC inventory : 54 43 Free stocks : 486 504 Outstanding loans : 58 40 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.42 3.50- 4.10 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum :Total =============================================================================== 2005/06 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 193 159 88 63 38 540 Production : 930 467 309 298 101 2,105 Supply, total 3/ : 1,124 641 420 372 169 2,725 Domestic use : 506 222 250 122 79 1,178 Exports : 435 280 75 175 35 1,000 Use, total : 940 502 324 296 114 2,178 Ending stocks May : 183 138 96 75 55 547 Apr : 173 133 96 75 55 532 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2006, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using 10-year average harvested-to-planted ratios and projected yield derived from 1985-2005 trend yield. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 12 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2006/07 will first be published * * in the July 12 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-434-12 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 97.0 96.3 92.5 * Harvested : 86.0 85.9 81.5 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.71 3.47 3.48 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 28.7 58.8 60.9 Production : 319.2 298.5 283.4 Imports : 2.1 1.8 2.2 Supply, total : 350.0 359.2 346.5 Feed and residual : 165.9 159.5 157.5 Food, seed & industrial : 74.1 81.7 96.0 Domestic, total : 239.9 241.2 253.6 Exports : 51.3 57.1 59.9 Use, total : 291.2 298.3 313.4 Ending stocks, total : 58.8 60.9 33.1 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 58.8 60.9 Outstanding loans : 7.2 5.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 80.9 81.8 78.0 * Harvested : 73.6 75.1 70.8 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 160.4 147.9 149.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 958 2,114 2,226 Production : 11,807 11,112 10,550 Imports : 11 10 10 Supply, total : 12,776 13,236 12,786 Feed and residual : 6,162 6,000 5,950 Food, seed & industrial : 2,686 2,985 3,545 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,323 1,600 2,150 Domestic, total : 8,848 8,985 9,495 Exports : 1,814 2,025 2,150 Use, total : 10,662 11,010 11,645 Ending stocks, total : 2,114 2,226 1,141 CCC inventory : 1 1 Free stocks : 2,113 2,225 Outstanding loans : 280 225 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.06 1.95- 2.05 2.25- 2.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of corn use including fuel alcohol see the ERS Feed Outlook table 5, or ERS feed grain data at http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/. Under "Custom" select data type: supply and use. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 2006, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected based on the relationship between planted and harvested for 2000-2005 omitting 2002. Projected yield derived from a linear trend fit over 1960-2005 (1988 omitted), adjusted for 2006 planting progress. WASDE-434-13 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.5 6.5 6.5 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.5 5.7 5.5 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.6 68.7 65.5 * Beginning stocks : 34 57 51 Production : 454 394 360 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 487 451 411 Feed and residual : 191 150 120 Food, seed & industrial : 55 55 60 Total domestic : 246 205 180 Exports : 184 195 185 Use, total : 430 400 365 Ending stocks, total : 57 51 46 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.79 1.70- 1.80 2.05- 2.45 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 3.9 3.7 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.3 3.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.6 64.8 64.1 * Beginning stocks : 120 128 105 Production : 280 212 205 Imports : 12 5 15 Supply, total : 412 345 325 Feed and residual : 105 55 45 Food, seed & industrial : 155 155 155 Total domestic : 261 210 200 Exports : 23 30 25 Use, total : 284 240 225 Ending stocks, total : 128 105 100 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.51 2.45- 2.85 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.2 4.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.8 1.8 2.0 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.7 63.0 62.5 * Beginning stocks : 65 58 52 Production : 116 115 125 Imports : 88 85 95 Supply, total : 268 258 272 Feed and residual : 134 130 145 Food, seed & industrial : 74 74 75 Total domestic : 208 204 220 Exports : 3 2 2 Use, total : 210 206 222 Ending stocks, total : 58 52 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.61 1.60- 2.00 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2006, Prospective Plantings. Harvested Area-- For barley, oats, and sorghum harvested acres is the five year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 2000-2005 (excluding 2002). Yield-- For sorghum 10 year average yield (1996-2005, excluding 2002). For barley and oats projected yield derived from 1960-2005 trend yield with oat yield adjusted for rounding. WASDE-434-14 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.38 2.97 * Harvested : 3.32 3.36 2.95 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,988 6,636 6,947 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 23.7 37.7 34.3 Production : 232.4 223.2 205.0 Imports : 13.2 16.0 18.0 Supply, total : 269.2 276.9 257.3 Domestic & residual 3/ : 122.5 126.7 129.7 Exports, total 4/ : 109.0 116.0 103.0 Rough : 33.9 34.0 36.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 75.1 82.0 67.0 Use, total : 231.5 242.7 232.7 Ending stocks : 37.7 34.3 24.6 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 7.33 7.60- 7.80 9.00- 9.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.57 2.73 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,630 6,493 Beginning stocks : 10.3 22.7 24.9 Production : 170.4 177.5 157.0 Supply, total 7/ : 191.3 211.8 193.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 84.5 93.9 96.5 Exports 8/ : 84.0 93.0 82.0 Use, total : 168.5 186.9 178.5 Ending stocks : 22.7 24.9 15.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.75 0.63 Yield (pounds/acre) : 8,212 7,255 Beginning stocks : 12.4 13.8 8.2 Production : 61.9 45.7 48.0 Supply, total 7/ : 76.8 64.0 62.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 38.0 32.8 33.2 Exports 8/ : 25.0 23.0 21.0 Use, total : 63.0 55.8 54.2 Ending stocks : 13.8 8.2 8.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.1; 2006/07-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2006 "Prospective Plantings". Harvested acres are estimated using an olympic average harvested-to-planted ratios by rice class, 2001-2005. Projected yield is derived from a relationship using yield trend and planting progress by State, 1995-2005. WASDE-434-15 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 75.2 72.1 76.9 * Harvested : 74.0 71.4 75.7 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 42.2 43.3 40.7 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 112 256 565 Production : 3,124 3,086 3,080 Imports : 6 4 4 Supply, total : 3,242 3,346 3,649 Crushings : 1,696 1,720 1,750 Exports : 1,103 900 1,090 Seed : 88 94 91 Residual : 99 68 68 Use, total : 2,986 2,782 2,999 Ending stocks : 256 565 650 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.74 5.65 5.10 - 6.10 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,076 1,699 2,749 Production : 19,360 20,125 19,775 Imports : 26 50 55 Supply, total : 20,462 21,874 22,579 Domestic : 17,439 18,000 19,000 Exports : 1,324 1,125 1,200 Use, total : 18,762 19,125 20,200 Ending stocks : 1,699 2,749 2,379 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 23.01 23.00 22.50- : 26.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 211 172 250 Production : 40,717 40,513 41,685 Imports : 147 165 165 Supply, total : 41,075 40,850 42,100 Domestic : 33,563 33,650 34,250 Exports : 7,340 6,950 7,600 Use, total : 40,903 40,600 41,850 Ending stocks : 172 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 182.89 175.00 155.00- : 185.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. *Planted acres are reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted to harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2005 regional trend analysis. WASDE-434-16 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 2005/06 : 2006/07 Item : 2004/05 :====================:============ : : April May : Projection ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,897 1,331 1,331 1,437 Production 2/ : 7,877 7,519 7,431 8,230 Beet sugar : 4,611 4,403 4,383 4,700 Cane sugar : 3,266 3,116 3,048 3,530 Florida : 1,693 1,436 1,368 1,800 Hawaii : 258 255 255 250 Louisiana : 1,157 1,245 1,245 1,300 Texas : 158 180 180 180 Imports : 2,100 3,090 3,115 1,818 TRQ 3/ : 1,408 2,540 2,540 1,318 Other program 4/ : 500 325 250 325 Other 5/ : 192 225 325 175 Supply, total : 11,874 11,940 11,877 11,485 : Exports : 259 175 175 200 Deliveries : 10,188 10,265 10,265 10,415 Food : 10,019 10,150 10,150 10,250 Other 6/ : 169 115 115 165 Miscellaneous 7/ : 96 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,543 10,440 10,440 10,615 Ending stocks : 1,331 1,500 1,437 870 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 14.4 13.8 8.2 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2005/06 are based on March 31 Prospective Plantings and trend yields. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2006/07, includes only U.S. commitments under current trade agreements, minus shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Includes high-tier and other. 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. WASDE-434-17 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.66 14.25 14.63 * Harvested : 13.06 13.80 12.90 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 855 831 770 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.51 5.54 6.50 Production : 23.25 23.89 20.70 Imports : 0.03 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 26.79 29.46 27.23 Domestic use : 6.69 6.00 5.80 Exports : 14.41 17.00 16.50 Use, total : 21.10 23.00 22.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.15 -0.04 0.03 Ending stocks : 5.54 6.50 4.90 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 41.6 47.8 5/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 2005/06 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area is reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on 1996-2003 U.S. average abandonment. Projected yield per harvested acre based on 2002-2005 U.S.average yield per harvested acre. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2005/06 is 28.8 percent. WASDE-434-18 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World 3/ : 131.87 628.76 109.86 106.86 610.30 110.84 150.33 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.92 5.18 31.91 28.92 14.70 Total foreign : 117.00 570.03 107.94 101.69 578.39 81.92 135.63 Major exporters 4/ : 23.44 201.23 7.72 65.49 135.84 55.91 40.64 Argentina : 1.40 16.00 0.00 0.08 5.01 11.83 0.55 Australia : 5.36 22.60 0.08 3.70 6.40 14.74 6.89 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.25 5.01 9.23 14.97 7.99 EU-25 5/ : 10.60 136.77 7.39 56.70 115.20 14.37 25.20 Major importers 6/ : 62.69 156.40 60.59 8.29 214.40 3.35 61.93 Brazil : 0.51 5.85 5.21 0.30 10.20 0.02 1.35 China : 43.29 91.95 6.75 4.00 102.00 1.17 38.82 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.66 9.60 1.95 28.27 0.60 4.96 N. Africa 8/ : 7.47 17.17 18.41 0.30 32.58 0.22 10.24 Pakistan : 1.38 19.50 1.42 0.40 20.00 0.05 2.25 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.03 0.00 9.75 0.91 9.35 0.37 2.06 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.06 0.01 0.50 72.75 2.12 4.10 FSU-12 : 10.99 86.83 4.57 20.81 72.93 15.19 14.27 Russia : 2.65 45.40 1.20 13.60 37.40 7.95 3.89 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.03 2.10 11.70 4.35 2.61 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 150.33 620.36 107.71 112.84 626.96 112.28 143.73 United States : 14.70 57.28 2.18 5.17 32.06 27.22 14.88 Total foreign : 135.63 563.08 105.54 107.67 594.90 85.07 128.85 Major exporters 4/ : 40.64 186.39 7.84 69.68 140.60 55.50 38.77 Argentina : 0.55 12.50 0.01 0.08 5.10 7.50 0.46 Australia : 6.89 24.50 0.08 3.90 6.60 17.50 7.37 Canada : 7.99 26.80 0.25 5.20 9.40 16.00 9.64 EU-25 5/ : 25.20 122.59 7.50 60.50 119.50 14.50 21.29 Major importers 6/ : 61.93 160.99 57.55 8.20 217.89 4.10 58.48 Brazil : 1.35 4.87 6.20 0.70 10.90 0.75 0.77 China : 38.82 97.00 1.30 3.50 101.00 1.10 35.02 Select. Mideast 7/ : 4.96 19.32 11.70 1.90 29.44 0.65 5.89 N. Africa 8/ : 10.24 14.30 18.60 0.30 33.53 0.21 9.41 Pakistan : 2.25 21.60 0.80 0.40 21.50 0.05 3.10 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.06 0.00 9.65 0.98 9.45 0.39 1.87 Selected other : India : 4.10 72.00 0.20 0.50 74.00 0.50 1.80 FSU-12 : 14.27 92.20 3.94 23.11 75.77 18.74 15.90 Russia : 3.89 47.70 0.80 14.90 38.40 10.00 3.99 Kazakhstan : 3.64 11.00 0.02 2.70 7.40 3.00 4.26 Ukraine : 2.61 18.70 0.05 3.10 13.10 5.50 2.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-434-19 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 143.73 600.47 107.83 106.54 616.07 108.66 128.13 United States : May : 14.88 50.97 2.59 4.76 31.79 24.49 12.16 Total foreign : May : 128.85 549.50 105.24 101.78 584.28 84.17 115.98 Major exporters 4/ : May : 38.77 191.00 6.56 68.48 139.50 63.00 33.82 Argentina May : 0.46 15.50 0.01 0.08 5.10 10.50 0.37 Australia May : 7.37 24.00 0.00 3.90 6.60 18.00 6.77 Canada May : 9.64 26.00 0.25 5.00 9.30 18.00 8.59 EU-25 5/ May : 21.29 125.50 6.30 59.50 118.50 16.50 18.09 Major importers 6/ : May : 58.48 164.39 54.08 6.83 218.92 3.24 54.79 Brazil May : 0.77 4.40 6.20 0.30 10.70 0.03 0.65 China May : 35.02 97.50 1.50 3.00 100.00 1.00 33.02 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 5.89 18.80 10.53 1.50 29.54 0.65 5.03 N. Africa 8/ May : 9.41 18.73 16.10 0.30 34.83 0.21 9.20 Pakistan May : 3.10 21.00 0.60 0.40 22.00 0.05 2.65 SE Asia 9/ May : 1.87 0.00 9.85 0.92 9.70 0.38 1.64 Selected other : India May : 1.80 68.00 4.50 0.50 70.50 0.50 3.30 FSU-12 May : 15.90 76.23 4.14 20.61 72.20 12.15 11.93 Russia May : 3.99 42.00 1.20 14.20 37.40 6.50 3.29 Kazakhstan May : 4.26 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.60 4.50 3.67 Ukraine May : 2.76 10.00 0.20 1.50 10.50 1.00 1.46 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-434-20 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World 3/ : 140.86 1014.85 100.89 641.51 976.32 101.45 179.39 United States : 28.76 319.42 2.20 165.97 240.28 51.30 58.80 Total foreign : 112.10 695.43 98.70 475.54 736.04 50.15 120.59 Major exporters 4/ : 10.53 75.13 3.03 36.47 49.84 24.94 13.90 Argentina : 1.00 24.90 0.01 6.60 9.06 15.24 1.61 Australia : 2.25 11.57 0.00 5.41 6.63 4.62 2.58 Canada : 4.09 26.45 2.47 19.16 23.74 2.85 6.42 Major importers 5/ : 33.98 225.80 76.22 214.31 283.45 4.61 47.95 EU-25 6/ : 12.87 150.75 3.67 106.54 138.82 4.01 24.46 Japan : 2.15 0.20 19.71 15.25 20.08 0.00 1.98 Mexico : 5.68 28.95 8.94 22.13 38.28 0.03 5.26 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.16 28.55 20.29 39.06 46.12 0.06 8.82 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 6.91 6.65 6.84 0.00 2.71 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.62 16.73 3.24 13.37 19.38 0.52 1.69 South Korea : 1.42 0.34 8.72 6.66 9.01 0.00 1.47 Selected other : China : 45.48 138.25 2.07 100.21 141.17 7.62 37.02 Other Europe : 1.75 29.05 0.48 19.88 25.11 2.22 3.94 FSU-12 : 5.96 62.95 1.06 38.09 54.62 8.10 7.26 Russia : 2.93 29.60 0.68 19.00 29.40 1.13 2.67 Ukraine : 1.62 23.00 0.02 11.35 15.20 6.77 2.67 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 179.39 968.02 99.84 627.03 977.25 100.60 170.15 United States : 58.80 298.74 1.94 159.61 241.51 57.08 60.89 Total foreign : 120.59 669.28 97.89 467.42 735.74 43.52 109.26 Major exporters 4/ : 13.90 65.22 2.45 36.55 50.14 20.30 11.13 Argentina : 1.61 17.40 0.00 6.21 8.67 9.36 0.98 Australia : 2.58 13.96 0.00 6.06 7.29 6.02 3.22 Canada : 6.42 25.98 1.57 19.66 24.53 4.15 5.29 Major importers 5/ : 47.95 201.73 77.41 209.49 278.43 5.46 43.19 EU-25 6/ : 24.46 131.79 3.50 100.11 132.34 4.46 22.94 Japan : 1.98 0.19 19.57 15.14 19.97 0.00 1.77 Mexico : 5.26 25.83 11.20 22.58 38.98 0.01 3.31 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 8.82 26.54 18.69 38.58 45.49 0.78 7.78 Saudi Arabia : 2.71 0.20 7.60 7.63 7.81 0.00 2.70 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.69 16.78 3.57 14.38 20.14 0.23 1.67 South Korea : 1.47 0.33 8.54 6.57 8.90 0.00 1.43 Selected other : China : 37.02 142.10 2.16 101.12 143.17 5.03 33.08 Other Europe : 3.94 26.80 0.57 19.04 25.03 1.91 4.37 FSU-12 : 7.26 55.08 0.99 33.49 49.45 8.19 5.68 Russia : 2.67 27.60 0.53 17.70 27.75 1.66 1.39 Ukraine : 2.67 18.14 0.08 8.45 11.99 6.36 2.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-434-21 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 170.15 964.39 100.74 636.55 1003.76 102.76 130.78 United States : May : 60.89 283.62 2.33 157.62 253.89 59.89 33.06 Total foreign : May : 109.26 680.78 98.42 478.93 749.87 42.88 97.72 Major exporters 4/ : May : 11.13 69.46 3.70 38.30 52.47 21.34 10.48 Argentina May : 0.98 21.57 0.00 7.11 9.67 11.96 0.93 Australia May : 3.22 13.46 0.00 6.27 7.49 5.77 3.42 Canada May : 5.29 25.04 2.87 20.39 25.76 3.10 4.35 Major importers 5/ : May : 43.19 213.03 76.40 214.23 283.91 5.48 43.24 EU-25 6/ May : 22.94 136.81 2.95 101.62 134.15 5.01 23.54 Japan May : 1.77 0.17 19.17 14.97 19.80 0.00 1.31 Mexico May : 3.31 28.43 11.20 23.18 39.68 0.00 3.26 N Afr/M.East 7/May : 7.78 29.48 18.35 40.19 47.56 0.25 7.81 Saudi Arabia May : 2.70 0.20 8.00 7.83 8.01 0.00 2.89 S.-east Asia 8/May : 1.67 17.53 3.16 15.07 20.73 0.23 1.40 South Korea May : 1.43 0.33 8.83 6.86 9.19 0.00 1.40 Selected other : China May : 33.08 143.06 2.34 102.92 147.23 4.03 27.22 Other Europe May : 4.37 23.94 0.54 18.97 24.53 1.86 2.46 FSU-12 May : 5.68 55.57 0.88 34.18 49.57 7.68 4.87 Russia May : 1.39 28.20 0.55 17.50 27.30 1.50 1.34 Ukraine May : 2.55 18.55 0.07 9.75 13.15 5.80 2.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-434-22 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World 3/ : 104.37 712.30 76.88 471.92 685.35 78.00 131.32 United States : 24.34 299.91 0.28 156.53 224.75 46.08 53.70 Total foreign : 80.04 412.39 76.61 315.39 460.60 31.92 77.62 Major exporters 4/ : 3.18 32.22 0.36 8.60 15.00 16.77 3.98 Argentina : 0.22 20.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.57 0.96 South Africa : 2.96 11.72 0.35 5.10 9.80 2.20 3.02 Major importers 5/ : 14.06 98.03 47.19 100.62 140.18 0.70 18.39 Egypt : 0.48 5.84 5.40 9.50 11.30 0.00 0.42 EU-25 6/ : 3.18 53.48 2.95 42.00 51.70 0.16 7.75 Japan : 1.34 0.00 16.49 12.20 16.70 0.00 1.13 Mexico : 4.37 22.05 5.92 12.60 27.90 0.03 4.42 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 16.53 3.23 13.20 19.20 0.51 1.66 South Korea : 1.42 0.08 8.64 6.62 8.67 0.00 1.47 Selected other : Brazil : 7.88 35.00 0.68 32.10 38.50 0.68 4.38 Canada : 1.14 8.84 2.37 7.91 10.31 0.24 1.80 China : 44.85 130.29 0.00 98.00 131.00 7.59 36.56 Other Europe : 1.22 23.70 0.24 16.63 20.32 1.63 3.20 FSU-12 : 1.36 15.39 0.55 11.01 12.71 2.42 2.17 Ukraine : 0.84 8.80 0.01 5.30 6.00 2.33 1.32 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 131.32 686.47 74.88 465.80 688.48 73.51 129.31 United States : 53.70 282.26 0.25 152.41 228.23 51.44 56.54 Total foreign : 77.62 404.21 74.62 313.40 460.25 22.08 72.76 Major exporters 4/ : 3.98 21.50 0.75 8.10 14.50 9.75 1.98 Argentina : 0.96 14.00 0.00 3.70 5.40 9.00 0.56 South Africa : 3.02 7.50 0.75 4.40 9.10 0.75 1.42 Major importers 5/ : 18.39 90.07 47.86 97.40 136.67 0.51 19.14 Egypt : 0.42 5.86 4.30 8.30 10.10 0.00 0.48 EU-25 6/ : 7.75 48.32 3.00 39.00 48.50 0.30 10.26 Japan : 1.13 0.00 16.50 12.10 16.60 0.00 1.03 Mexico : 4.42 19.20 7.50 12.90 28.40 0.01 2.71 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.66 16.58 3.56 14.20 19.95 0.20 1.64 South Korea : 1.47 0.06 8.40 6.50 8.50 0.00 1.43 Selected other : Brazil : 4.38 41.00 0.50 33.50 40.00 1.10 4.78 Canada : 1.80 9.47 1.50 8.50 11.00 0.20 1.57 China : 36.56 134.00 0.03 99.00 133.00 5.00 32.58 Other Europe : 3.20 22.18 0.29 16.00 20.50 1.50 3.67 FSU-12 : 2.17 13.13 0.48 9.99 11.63 2.38 1.76 Ukraine : 1.32 7.15 0.00 4.40 5.10 2.30 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-434-23 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 129.31 680.28 76.36 474.19 717.33 77.99 92.26 United States : May : 56.54 267.98 0.25 151.14 241.18 54.61 28.98 Total foreign : May : 72.76 412.30 76.11 323.06 476.15 23.38 63.27 Major exporters 4/ : May : 1.98 26.50 0.70 8.60 15.10 12.00 2.08 Argentina May : 0.56 17.50 0.00 4.30 6.10 11.50 0.46 South Africa May : 1.42 9.00 0.70 4.30 9.00 0.50 1.62 Major importers 5/ : May : 19.14 94.62 47.45 99.90 139.67 1.20 20.34 Egypt May : 0.48 5.87 4.80 8.60 10.60 0.00 0.55 EU-25 6/ May : 10.26 50.00 2.50 40.00 49.80 1.00 11.96 Japan May : 1.03 0.00 16.20 12.00 16.50 0.00 0.73 Mexico May : 2.71 21.30 7.50 13.20 28.80 0.00 2.71 S.-east Asia 7/May : 1.64 17.33 3.15 14.90 20.55 0.20 1.37 South Korea May : 1.43 0.07 8.70 6.80 8.80 0.00 1.40 Selected other : Brazil May : 4.78 40.50 0.75 34.50 41.50 1.00 3.53 Canada May : 1.57 9.00 2.80 9.00 12.00 0.20 1.17 China May : 32.58 135.00 0.10 101.00 137.00 4.00 26.68 Other Europe May : 3.67 19.94 0.21 16.19 20.28 1.60 1.94 FSU-12 May : 1.76 13.58 0.45 10.64 12.03 2.03 1.73 Ukraine May : 1.07 7.50 0.00 5.00 5.50 2.00 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-434-24 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 3/ : 86.17 402.69 26.35 414.18 28.04 74.67 United States : 0.76 7.46 0.42 3.93 3.50 1.21 Total foreign : 85.41 395.22 25.94 410.25 24.54 73.46 Major exporters 4/ : 17.20 130.31 0.32 112.62 19.59 15.62 India : 10.80 85.31 0.00 82.51 4.50 9.10 Pakistan : 0.40 4.92 0.00 2.63 2.64 0.04 Thailand : 1.71 17.36 0.00 9.48 7.27 2.31 Vietnam : 4.30 22.72 0.32 18.00 5.17 4.16 Major importers 5/ : 12.56 60.24 9.26 68.67 0.59 12.80 Brazil : 1.34 9.00 0.55 9.00 0.30 1.59 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.83 0.50 35.85 0.05 3.45 Nigeria : 1.00 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.42 Philippines : 4.05 9.45 1.50 10.40 0.00 4.59 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.31 3.25 5.07 0.06 1.42 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 9.57 0.00 10.30 0.19 0.71 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.07 0.42 0.48 0.00 0.13 China : 44.93 125.36 0.61 135.10 0.66 35.14 Egypt : 0.72 4.13 0.00 3.25 1.10 0.50 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.78 8.30 0.20 1.92 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.75 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 0.85 5.00 0.19 4.86 0.27 0.91 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 3/ : 74.67 411.52 26.21 418.09 27.90 68.09 United States : 1.21 7.09 0.51 4.04 3.68 1.09 Total foreign : 73.46 404.43 25.70 414.06 24.21 67.00 Major exporters 4/ : 15.62 133.92 0.40 113.89 19.13 16.93 India : 9.10 87.86 0.00 83.50 3.80 9.66 Pakistan : 0.04 5.50 0.00 2.64 2.83 0.08 Thailand : 2.31 18.00 0.05 9.50 7.30 3.56 Vietnam : 4.16 22.56 0.35 18.25 5.20 3.62 Major importers 5/ : 12.80 59.61 10.39 69.64 0.41 12.76 Brazil : 1.59 7.80 0.60 9.15 0.18 0.66 EU-25 6/ : 1.13 1.71 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.09 Indonesia : 3.45 34.96 0.60 35.60 0.00 3.41 Nigeria : 0.42 2.70 1.80 4.35 0.00 0.57 Philippines : 4.59 9.60 1.80 11.00 0.00 4.99 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.42 2.38 3.55 5.39 0.06 1.90 Selected other : Burma : 0.71 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.20 0.55 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.13 0.07 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.10 China : 35.14 127.40 0.60 135.20 0.80 27.14 Egypt : 0.50 4.13 0.00 3.28 1.00 0.36 Japan : 1.92 8.26 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.43 Mexico : 0.17 0.18 0.60 0.78 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 0.91 4.77 0.40 4.85 0.13 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-434-25 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 68.09 417.01 26.06 423.15 27.78 61.95 United States : May : 1.09 6.51 0.57 4.12 3.27 0.78 Total foreign : May : 67.00 410.50 25.49 419.03 24.51 61.17 Major exporters 4/ : May : 16.93 136.55 0.40 116.71 19.30 17.87 India May : 9.66 90.00 0.00 86.00 4.00 9.66 Pakistan May : 0.08 5.20 0.00 2.64 2.35 0.29 Thailand May : 3.56 18.35 0.10 9.57 8.25 4.19 Vietnam May : 3.62 23.00 0.30 18.50 4.70 3.72 Major importers 5/ : May : 12.76 60.69 9.79 70.25 0.38 12.61 Brazil May : 0.66 8.50 0.60 9.25 0.15 0.36 EU-25 6/ May : 1.09 1.78 0.98 2.60 0.18 1.07 Indonesia May : 3.41 35.09 0.60 35.65 0.00 3.45 Nigeria May : 0.57 2.80 1.70 4.45 0.00 0.62 Philippines May : 4.99 9.65 1.75 11.20 0.00 5.19 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 1.90 2.38 3.10 5.49 0.05 1.83 Selected other : Burma May : 0.55 10.70 0.00 10.50 0.25 0.50 C. Am & Car. 8/May : 0.10 0.07 0.42 0.50 0.00 0.09 China May : 27.14 129.00 0.80 135.30 0.80 20.84 Egypt May : 0.36 4.14 0.00 3.30 0.80 0.40 Japan May : 2.43 7.94 0.65 8.20 0.20 2.62 Mexico May : 0.18 0.18 0.60 0.80 0.00 0.16 South Korea May : 1.10 4.70 0.27 4.84 0.10 1.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-434-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World : 43.10 120.50 33.29 108.91 34.77 -1.08 54.29 United States : 3.51 23.25 0.03 6.69 14.41 0.15 5.54 Total foreign : 39.59 97.25 33.27 102.22 20.36 -1.23 48.75 Major exporters 4/ : 14.69 45.79 1.65 23.50 16.61 -0.19 22.21 Central Asia 5/ : 1.71 8.01 3/ 1.51 5.90 0.00 2.32 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.30 5.01 3/ 0.20 4.13 0.00 1.97 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.32 0.45 5.26 4.20 -0.20 7.94 Australia : 0.89 3.00 3/ 0.07 2.00 -0.12 1.95 Brazil : 4.63 5.90 0.21 4.20 1.56 -0.10 5.08 India : 4.19 19.00 0.80 14.80 0.70 0.00 8.49 Major importers 8/ : 23.01 47.57 28.84 73.96 2.41 -1.06 24.12 Mexico : 1.14 0.63 1.81 2.10 0.14 0.03 1.32 China : 14.96 29.00 6.39 38.50 0.03 -1.25 13.06 EU-25 9/ : 0.96 2.30 3.06 3.47 1.66 0.06 1.14 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.45 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.48 4.15 3.41 7.10 0.15 0.00 1.79 Pakistan : 2.03 11.30 1.70 10.75 0.38 0.03 3.88 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.40 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.48 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.28 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.58 Bangladesh : 0.35 0.06 1.85 1.88 0.00 0.01 0.38 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World : 54.29 113.41 44.09 117.20 43.50 -1.33 52.42 United States : 5.54 23.89 0.03 6.00 17.00 -0.04 6.50 Total foreign : 48.75 89.52 44.06 111.20 26.50 -1.29 45.92 Major exporters 4/ : 22.21 43.15 1.50 24.46 21.89 -0.19 20.69 Central Asia 5/ : 2.32 8.39 3/ 1.46 6.96 0.00 2.29 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.97 4.52 3/ 0.19 4.67 0.00 1.63 S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.94 8.90 0.37 5.03 6.02 -0.20 6.36 Australia : 1.95 2.70 3/ 0.06 3.20 -0.12 1.52 Brazil : 5.08 4.70 0.15 4.00 2.00 -0.10 4.03 India : 8.49 18.30 0.60 16.00 2.50 0.00 8.89 Major importers 8/ : 24.12 42.83 40.14 82.21 2.92 -1.11 23.08 Mexico : 1.32 0.64 1.60 2.00 0.35 0.03 1.18 China : 13.06 26.20 19.00 46.50 0.03 -1.30 13.04 EU-25 9/ : 1.14 2.48 2.44 2.90 1.89 0.06 1.21 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.79 3.55 3.45 6.90 0.20 0.00 1.69 Pakistan : 3.88 9.75 1.70 11.75 0.35 0.03 3.21 Indonesia : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand : 0.58 0.05 2.05 2.13 0.00 0.03 0.53 Bangladesh : 0.38 0.07 2.05 2.08 0.00 0.01 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade. WASDE-434-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World : May : 52.42 115.00 44.00 122.00 43.50 -1.50 47.42 United States : May : 6.50 20.70 0.03 5.80 16.50 0.03 4.90 Total foreign : May : 45.92 94.30 43.97 116.20 27.00 -1.53 42.52 China : May : 13.04 28.00 20.00 51.00 0.03 -1.50 11.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the estimated difference between stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. WASDE-434-28 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 42.43 186.75 54.28 163.61 190.03 55.84 37.59 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.60 24.13 3.06 Total foreign : 37.57 119.97 54.13 121.98 145.44 31.71 34.53 Major exporters 3/ : 30.66 87.91 0.88 55.33 59.75 29.52 30.18 Argentina : 14.58 33.00 0.54 25.02 26.50 6.93 14.70 Brazil : 15.99 51.00 0.33 29.32 32.11 19.82 15.40 Major importers 4/ : 5.98 17.43 43.57 48.77 63.22 0.34 3.42 China : 4.47 15.39 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.87 0.63 14.64 13.91 15.44 0.01 0.70 Japan : 0.31 0.23 4.69 3.54 4.93 0.00 0.30 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.89 3.92 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 37.59 215.58 64.61 175.26 205.27 64.79 47.73 United States : 3.06 85.01 0.15 46.16 51.25 30.01 6.96 Total foreign : 34.53 130.57 64.46 129.10 154.01 34.78 40.77 Major exporters 3/ : 30.18 96.05 1.24 57.29 61.91 32.30 33.26 Argentina : 14.70 39.00 0.69 27.31 28.84 9.31 16.24 Brazil : 15.40 53.00 0.53 28.97 31.86 20.14 16.93 Major importers 4/ : 3.42 19.55 52.82 53.44 69.00 0.42 6.37 China : 2.10 17.40 25.80 30.36 40.21 0.39 4.70 EU-25 : 0.70 0.79 15.50 14.10 15.89 0.01 1.09 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.30 3.15 4.50 0.00 0.26 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.64 3.73 3.76 0.00 0.05 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 45.57 222.26 65.44 183.35 213.75 65.77 53.75 May : 47.73 221.80 65.36 182.30 212.57 66.38 55.94 United States : April : 6.96 84.00 0.11 46.81 51.21 24.49 15.37 May : 6.96 84.00 0.11 46.81 51.21 24.49 15.37 Total foreign : April : 38.61 138.26 65.33 136.54 162.54 41.28 38.38 May : 40.77 137.80 65.25 135.49 161.37 41.88 40.57 Major exporters 3/ : April : 31.08 101.50 1.14 59.57 64.14 38.63 30.96 May : 33.26 101.00 1.24 58.68 63.32 39.14 33.04 Argentina Apr : 14.12 40.50 0.70 28.80 30.42 10.45 14.45 May : 16.24 40.50 0.80 29.20 30.82 10.50 16.22 Brazil Apr : 16.88 57.00 0.43 29.62 32.36 25.53 16.42 May : 16.93 56.50 0.43 28.33 31.14 25.99 16.73 Major importers 4/ : April : 6.36 20.60 52.94 56.90 73.19 0.43 6.27 May : 6.37 20.62 53.17 57.10 73.38 0.43 6.35 China Apr : 4.70 18.30 27.00 34.61 45.10 0.40 4.50 May : 4.70 18.30 27.00 34.61 45.10 0.40 4.50 EU-25 Apr : 1.09 0.86 14.40 13.40 15.19 0.01 1.15 May : 1.09 0.86 14.80 13.70 15.49 0.01 1.25 Japan Apr : 0.26 0.23 4.10 2.90 4.29 0.00 0.30 May : 0.26 0.23 4.10 2.90 4.29 0.00 0.30 Mexico Apr : 0.04 0.13 3.73 3.82 3.85 0.00 0.04 May : 0.05 0.15 3.73 3.84 3.88 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU-25, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-434-29 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 5.79 128.40 44.65 127.92 45.26 5.66 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.26 28.53 4.69 0.19 Total foreign : 5.59 95.44 44.39 99.39 40.57 5.46 Major exporters 3/ : 2.67 46.47 0.23 9.30 36.81 3.25 Argentina : 0.97 19.69 0.00 0.48 18.74 1.43 Brazil : 1.65 22.36 0.23 7.70 14.76 1.78 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.22 32.86 26.91 58.72 1.08 1.18 EU-25 : 0.87 10.95 21.91 32.49 0.39 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.54 0.67 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 5.66 138.35 45.68 136.55 46.52 6.61 United States : 0.19 36.94 0.13 30.45 6.66 0.16 Total foreign : 5.46 101.41 45.54 106.11 39.86 6.45 Major exporters 3/ : 3.25 47.71 0.19 10.48 36.59 4.08 Argentina : 1.43 21.53 0.00 0.50 20.50 1.97 Brazil : 1.78 22.42 0.19 8.70 14.24 1.45 India : 0.04 3.77 0.00 1.29 1.85 0.66 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 36.93 27.80 63.56 1.17 1.18 EU-25 : 0.85 11.09 22.10 32.68 0.51 0.86 China : 0.00 24.03 0.07 23.46 0.63 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 5.63 144.08 47.97 143.78 48.38 5.52 May : 6.61 143.27 48.28 143.41 48.75 6.00 United States : April : 0.16 36.84 0.15 30.62 6.31 0.23 May : 0.16 36.75 0.15 30.53 6.31 0.23 Total foreign : April : 5.47 107.24 47.82 113.16 42.08 5.29 May : 6.45 106.51 48.13 112.89 42.44 5.77 Major exporters 3/ : April : 3.16 49.94 0.19 11.60 38.74 2.95 May : 4.08 49.16 0.19 11.08 38.97 3.38 Argentina Apr : 1.15 22.61 0.00 0.90 21.65 1.21 May : 1.97 22.87 0.00 0.55 22.46 1.84 Brazil Apr : 1.45 23.39 0.19 9.13 14.19 1.70 May : 1.45 22.21 0.19 9.13 13.21 1.51 India Apr : 0.56 3.95 0.00 1.57 2.90 0.04 May : 0.66 4.07 0.00 1.40 3.30 0.03 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.12 39.90 28.79 67.70 1.01 1.11 May : 1.18 39.95 29.06 67.97 1.03 1.19 EU-25 Apr : 0.86 10.55 22.50 32.50 0.54 0.86 May : 0.86 10.75 22.50 32.65 0.59 0.86 China Apr : 0.00 27.38 0.38 27.33 0.43 0.00 May : 0.00 27.38 0.55 27.53 0.40 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ China, EU-25, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), and Other Europe. WASDE-434-30 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 2.94 29.96 8.24 29.90 8.60 2.64 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.43 0.49 Total foreign : 2.27 22.22 8.10 22.25 8.18 2.15 Major exporters 3/ : 1.38 12.71 0.10 5.43 7.35 1.41 Argentina : 0.71 4.63 0.00 0.39 4.09 0.86 Brazil : 0.42 5.59 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.37 EU-25 : 0.24 2.50 0.07 2.09 0.54 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 5.55 3.55 8.99 0.02 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.75 7.17 0.02 0.34 India : 0.10 1.00 0.76 1.75 0.01 0.10 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.64 32.26 8.73 31.75 9.08 2.79 United States : 0.49 8.78 0.01 7.91 0.60 0.77 Total foreign : 2.15 23.48 8.72 23.84 8.48 2.02 Major exporters 3/ : 1.41 13.07 0.16 5.65 7.68 1.31 Argentina : 0.86 5.09 0.00 0.41 4.75 0.79 Brazil : 0.37 5.46 0.00 3.09 2.41 0.33 EU-25 : 0.18 2.52 0.16 2.16 0.51 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 6.27 3.75 9.91 0.05 0.50 China : 0.34 5.42 1.74 7.21 0.04 0.25 India : 0.10 0.85 1.94 2.63 0.01 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 2.16 33.91 9.25 33.37 9.34 2.61 May : 2.79 33.91 9.03 33.37 9.31 3.06 United States : April : 0.77 9.09 0.03 8.17 0.51 1.22 May : 0.77 9.13 0.02 8.17 0.51 1.25 Total foreign : April : 1.39 24.82 9.22 25.21 8.83 1.39 May : 2.02 24.78 9.01 25.20 8.80 1.81 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.69 13.45 0.37 5.76 7.95 0.80 May : 1.31 13.41 0.36 5.94 7.86 1.29 Argentina Apr : 0.14 5.29 0.00 0.30 5.00 0.14 May : 0.79 5.45 0.00 0.43 5.07 0.74 Brazil Apr : 0.33 5.76 0.02 3.13 2.53 0.44 May : 0.33 5.51 0.01 3.13 2.37 0.35 EU-25 Apr : 0.23 2.40 0.35 2.34 0.42 0.23 May : 0.20 2.45 0.35 2.39 0.42 0.20 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.50 7.09 3.88 11.04 0.06 0.37 May : 0.50 7.10 3.73 10.91 0.11 0.31 China Apr : 0.25 6.17 2.10 8.22 0.05 0.25 May : 0.25 6.17 2.00 8.12 0.10 0.20 India Apr : 0.25 0.90 1.70 2.72 0.01 0.12 May : 0.25 0.92 1.70 2.75 0.01 0.11 Pakistan Apr : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 May : 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU-25. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-434-31 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2005 : II : 6189 5021 11295 8934 1397 10469 21764 1860 45.8 III : 6560 5000 11643 8939 1375 10445 22088 1871 44.1 IV : 6209 5526 11822 8904 1405 10432 22254 1915 43.7 Annual : 24683 20685 45711 35365 5504 41386 87097 7504 177.0 : 2006 : I : 6078 5321 11486 8937 1354 10416 21902 1878 45.5 II*: 6850 5050 11987 9100 1425 10655 22642 1905 46.9 III*: 6950 5200 12236 9100 1410 10645 22881 1910 44.8 IV*: 6375 5675 12142 9050 1445 10630 22772 1935 44.7 Annual : Apr Proj : 26025 21325 47707 36175 5575 42275 89982 7650 182.2 May Proj : 26253 21246 47851 36187 5634 42346 90197 7628 182.0 : 2007 : I*: 6330 5375 11796 9075 1375 10575 22371 1895 46.3 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 26755 21740 48854 36825 5730 43085 91939 7735 183.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2005 : II : 87.96 52.09 72.6 67.7 55.9 14.77 III : 81.79 50.51 72.1 76.5 66.6 14.97 IV : 90.27 45.67 66.7 83.6 75.0 15.17 Annual : 87.28 50.05 70.8 73.4 65.5 15.14 : 2006 : I : 89.24 42.63 62.7 67.3 71.4 13.53 II*: 79-81 44-46 59-61 70-72 62-64 11.70-12.00 III*: 76-80 44-46 61-65 75-79 65-69 11.85-12.45 IV*: 80-86 38-42 60-66 77-83 75-81 12.35-13.25 Annual : Apr Proj : 82-86 42-44 62-65 71-74 70-73 12.55-13.05 May Proj : 81-84 42-44 61-63 72-75 68-71 12.35-12.85 : 2007 : I*: 82-88 37-41 63-69 62-68 70-76 12.30-13.30 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 81-87 39-42 64-69 68-74 71-77 12.85-13.85 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-434-32 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2005 : 637 24784 3599 29020 689 571 27760 65.5 2006 Proj. Apr : 571 26127 3490 30188 1050 575 28563 66.7 May : 571 26355 3510 30436 930 575 28931 67.6 2007 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 575 26857 3340 30772 1310 575 28887 66.9 : PORK : 2005 : 543 20706 1024 22273 2660 494 19119 50.0 2006 Proj. Apr : 494 21345 1015 22854 2890 515 19449 50.4 May : 494 21266 1015 22775 2890 515 19370 50.2 2007 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 515 21760 1040 23315 3035 515 19765 50.8 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2005 : 1187 45846 4803 51836 3358 1080 47398 117.0 2006 Proj. Apr : 1080 47842 4689 53611 3950 1105 48556 118.7 May : 1080 47986 4709 53775 3832 1104 48839 119.4 2007 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1104 48989 4564 54657 4357 1104 49196 119.3 : BROILERS : 2005 : 713 34986 34 35733 5148 924 29662 85.9 2006 Proj. Apr : 924 35788 36 36748 5300 850 30598 87.7 May : 924 35800 36 36759 5325 800 30634 87.9 2007 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 800 36431 36 37267 5405 770 31092 88.4 : TURKEYS : 2005 : 288 5432 8 5728 569 206 4953 16.7 2006 Proj. Apr : 206 5502 8 5716 600 250 4866 16.2 May : 206 5560 8 5774 575 250 4949 16.5 2007 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 250 5655 4 5909 620 280 5009 16.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2005 : 1005 40935 42 41981 5847 1132 35002 103.9 2006 Proj. Apr : 1132 41814 45 42991 6035 1102 35854 105.2 May : 1132 41885 45 43061 6035 1052 35974 105.7 2007 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1052 42615 41 43708 6155 1052 36501 106.3 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2005 : 2192 86781 4845 93818 9205 2212 82401 220.9 2006 Proj. Apr : 2212 89656 4734 96602 9985 2207 84410 223.9 May : 2212 89870 4754 96836 9867 2156 84813 225.2 2007 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 2156 91604 4605 98365 10512 2156 85697 225.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-434-33 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2006 Projected : 2007 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2004 : 2005 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.7 14.5 16.0 16.0 NA 18.0 Production : 7440.0 7503.6 7650.0 7628.0 NA 7735.0 Imports : 12.7 8.6 6.8 6.8 NA 6.8 Total supply : 7466.4 7526.7 7672.8 7650.8 NA 7759.8 : Use : Exports : 167.5 205.9 192.0 172.0 NA 179.0 Hatching use : 988.1 999.8 1010.0 1009.0 NA 1010.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 16.0 17.0 18.0 NA 18.0 Consumption : Total : 6296.3 6305.1 6453.8 6451.8 NA 6552.8 Per capita (number) : 257.1 255.1 258.4 258.6 NA 260.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2006 Projected : 2007 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2004 : 2005 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.9 177.0 182.2 182.0 NA 183.1 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 NA 1.0 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.3 7.2 8.0 8.0 NA 8.2 Marketings : 169.8 175.9 181.1 180.9 NA 182.1 Imports : 5.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 NA 5.1 Total cml. supply : 183.4 187.7 193.7 193.4 NA 195.4 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 7.2 8.0 8.2 8.2 NA 7.9 CCC net removals 1/ : -0.1 -0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 176.4 179.7 185.5 185.2 NA 187.5 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.2 8.9 9.0 NA 9.0 Marketings : 169.8 175.9 181.1 180.9 NA 182.1 Imports : 4.8 4.5 4.8 4.8 NA 5.7 Total cml. supply : 183.1 188.6 194.9 194.7 NA 196.8 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.2 9.0 9.0 9.0 NA 8.8 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.3 -1.0 1.2 1.3 NA 2.3 Commercial use 2/ : 173.7 180.7 184.7 184.4 NA 185.7 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : -7 0 0 0 NA 0 Cheese : 6 -2 0 0 NA 0 Nonfat dry milk : 105 -81 100 110 NA 195 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 NA 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-434-34 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2006 Projected : 2007 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2004 : 2005 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.6431 1.4875 1.225- 1.205- NA 1.295- : 1.275 1.255 1.395 : Butter : 1.8239 1.5405 1.195- 1.150- NA 1.215- : 1.275 1.230 1.345 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8405 0.9409 0.845- 0.845- NA 0.815- : 0.885 0.885 0.885 : Dry whey : 0.2319 0.2782 0.280- 0.275- NA 0.240- : 0.310 0.305 0.270 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 15.39 14.05 11.45- 11.25- NA 11.95- : 11.95 11.75 12.95 : Class IV : 13.20 12.87 10.65- 10.45- NA 10.45- : 11.25 11.05 11.55 : All milk 3/ : 16.05 15.14 12.55- 12.35- NA 12.85- : 13.05 12.85 13.85 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-434-35 Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a 25-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.3 million tons (2.8%) ranging from -35.0 to 30.0 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 15 times and above 10 times. Reliability of May Projections =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2005/06 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.8 15.3 -35.0 30.0 15 10 U.S. : 5.3 3.2 -7.2 9.8 12 13 Foreign : 2.9 14.0 -32.9 28.7 14 11 Exports : World : 4.3 4.9 -16.3 12.7 17 8 U.S. : 8.7 2.9 -10.0 7.8 15 10 Foreign : 4.8 4.0 -12.0 5.3 18 7 Domestic use : World : 1.9 10.0 -28.0 19.9 16 9 U.S. : 5.9 1.9 -6.4 4.0 16 9 Foreign : 1.8 9.1 -24.7 18.4 17 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.3 11.9 -24.4 26.9 15 10 U.S. : 16.9 3.6 -9.0 14.1 14 11 Foreign : 9.8 9.9 -23.3 16.8 13 12 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.1 25.3 -72.3 75.3 10 15 U.S. : 9.8 20.4 -35.9 70.3 13 12 Foreign : 2.3 13.3 -36.8 42.8 8 17 Exports : World : 5.7 6.0 -10.0 15.5 15 10 U.S. : 15.1 7.9 -22.8 15.3 10 15 Foreign : 12.6 6.6 -20.8 14.2 14 11 Domestic use : World : 1.7 14.0 -23.4 32.4 10 15 U.S. : 4.4 8.0 -16.6 33.0 17 8 Foreign : 1.6 10.2 -16.2 32.8 10 15 Ending stocks : World : 16.7 22.4 -71.4 48.1 15 10 U.S. : 37.5 18.2 -57.6 43.8 11 14 Foreign : 15.1 11.2 -25.9 18.6 18 7 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.1 7.2 -21.8 15.2 16 9 U.S. : 5.7 0.3 -1.0 0.5 15 10 Foreign : 2.1 7.2 -22.0 15.3 16 9 Exports : World : 8.4 1.7 -7.5 1.1 18 7 U.S. : 9.0 0.3 -1.0 0.7 14 8 Foreign : 9.0 1.6 -7.1 0.9 18 7 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.6 -19.4 5.0 20 5 U.S. : 7.3 0.2 -0.5 0.6 10 14 Foreign : 1.7 5.6 -20.0 5.2 21 4 Ending stocks : World : 11.0 4.5 -15.6 9.0 16 9 U.S. : 28.8 0.3 -0.8 0.9 12 11 Foreign : 11.7 4.5 -16.4 9.1 16 9 =============================================================================== 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-434-36 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2005/06 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.6 4.5 -11.3 12.0 12 13 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 13.5 2.7 -6.7 6.4 13 11 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 5.7 2.2 -7.5 4.2 17 8 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 47.7 3.3 -7.5 8.4 8 17 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 5.0 4.4 -16.7 11.4 16 9 U.S. : 10.2 1.7 -5.5 3.1 12 13 Foreign : 5.0 3.6 -12.2 10.5 15 10 Exports : World : 5.9 1.6 -4.2 2.7 13 12 U.S. : 19.7 1.2 -2.5 3.0 17 8 Foreign : 6.3 1.2 -3.5 1.9 12 13 Mill use : World : 2.8 2.5 -8.0 5.0 12 13 U.S. : 8.2 0.7 -1.4 1.3 14 11 Foreign : 2.9 2.4 -7.5 3.9 13 12 Ending stocks : World : 15.9 5.8 -13.8 15.4 17 8 U.S. : 33.9 1.5 -3.4 3.7 12 13 Foreign : 15.1 4.9 -13.1 12.7 17 8 =============================================================================== 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2005/06 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 25 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-434-37 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2005/06 2/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 10.2 712 -1382 2379 11 14 Exports : 16.2 289 -850 583 10 14 Domestic use : 5.0 308 -558 1095 18 7 Ending stocks : 44.5 642 -2091 1459 11 14 : SORGHUM : Production : 15.8 98 -228 171 10 14 Exports : 17.9 41 -105 97 12 13 Domestic use : 15.5 60 -162 100 12 13 Ending stocks : 51.0 67 -238 191 9 16 : BARLEY : Production : 9.8 35 -73 206 8 17 Exports : 35.6 18 -92 53 14 10 Domestic use : 10.6 37 -72 95 13 12 Ending stocks : 16.3 27 -60 78 11 14 : OATS : Production : 17.9 42 -77 231 7 18 Exports : 74.4 2 -5 8 7 10 Domestic use : 7.6 26 -39 160 8 16 Ending stocks : 16.8 19 -62 77 6 16 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.7 1437 -3696 4162 16 9 Exports : 17.4 1087 -2750 2364 13 11 Domestic use : 3.3 749 -1800 1559 14 11 Ending stocks : 31.6 75 -234 388 9 14 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.7 682 -1973 1443 16 9 Exports : 28.0 450 -1700 925 12 13 Domestic use : 3.0 396 -985 608 18 7 Ending stocks : 35.2 532 -1413 1188 14 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.9 454 -538 1319 16 8 Pork : 1.8 301 -779 826 17 7 Broilers : 1.0 242 -497 659 15 9 Turkeys : 1.6 68 -234 173 12 12 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.9 57 -83 125 18 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.9 1.4 -4.5 5.2 12 12 =============================================================================== 1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2005/06 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 25 for crops and 24 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2005 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------------- End of File ----------------