WASDE-364 July 12, 2000 NOTE: The report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Yields for other crops reflect time series analysis and judgment. Area estimates reflect the June 30 NASS Acreage report. Survey-based area, yield, and production forecasts reported by NASS will be adopted in the August 11 issue of this report. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of wheat are up 138 million bushels from last month because of larger supplies and reduced use. Forecast wheat production is up 31 million bushels due to larger spring wheat and durum production. Reported beginning stocks are 33 million bushels above last month's forecast. Projected feed and residual use is down 49 million bushels because of sharply lower corn prices in recent weeks. Projected exports are down 25 million bushels because of increased competition. The projected price range is down 15 cents on each end to $2.25 to $2.75 per bushel. Global 2000/01 wheat production is up more than 5 million tons from last month as gains for India, Canada, Russia, the EU, Pakistan, and a few other countries more than offset reductions for China, Eastern Europe, and Ukraine. With the larger crops, projected exports are raised for Canada and India, while imports are reduced for Uzbekistan and Pakistan. On the other hand, lower crops are expected to raise expected Eastern European imports but lower Ukraine exports. Much of the gain in projected 2000/01 foreign ending stocks from last month is also due to larger crops, especially in India and Russia. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2000/01 ending stocks of corn are up sharply from last month because of gains in production and beginning stocks. Projected corn production is up 273 million bushels this month because harvested area is raised 2 million acres to reflect the June 30 Acreage report. Total use is up marginally as higher exports more than offset reductions in domestic use. Higher projected U.S. corn exports are due to reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe. The projected price range is down 10 cents on each end to $1.50 to $1.90 per bushel. Forecast 1999/2000 ending stocks of corn are up 60 million bushels from last month, largely because of a reduction in feed and residual use. The June 1 stocks estimate implied smaller-than-expected use in the March-May quarter. The price forecast for the 1999/2000 marketing year, which ends August 31, is $1.80 per bushel, compared with a range of $1.85 to $1.95 forecast last month. Global coarse grain production, use, and trade are down from last month, but ending stocks are higher. Even with the larger U.S. corn crop, global coarse grain production is projected down almost 4 million tons from last month. Hot, dry weather has cut prospective corn production by almost 7 million tons in Eastern Europe, while China's corn crop is down 3 million tons because of lower planted area. Eastern Europe accounts for most of the reduction in projected use, while reductions in ending stocks for Eastern Europe and China offset much of the gain in projected U.S. ending stocks. RICE: U.S. Production in 2000/01 is projected at 193.5 million cwt, down 6.5 million cwt from last month and a decline of 17 million cwt from the record 1999/2000 crop. Planted area is estimated at 3.27 million acres as reported in the NASS Acreage report, down 125,000 acres from last month and the NASS Prospective Plantings report. Yield is adjusted slightly higher because of a change in the distribution of reported area by State and type of rice. Long-grain rice production is lowered nearly 6 million cwt from last month, while combined medium/short grain rice production is down slightly. Projected rice exports are unchanged from last month at 88 million cwt; however, rough rice exports are raised 1 million cwt and milled rice exports are lowered the same amount. Ending stocks are projected at 34.8 million cwt, down 7.1 million cwt from last month and nearly 3 million cwt from the revised 1999/2000 estimate. The 2000/01 season-average price range is raised $0.50 per cwt on each end to $5.25 to $6.25 per cwt. U.S. rice exports for 1999/2000 are raised 1 million cwt to 89 million cwt, with rough rice exports raised 1.5 million cwt and milled rice exports lowered 0.5 million cwt. The pace of rough rice exports continues to be strong to Mexico and Turkey. Ending stocks for 1999/2000 are estimated at 37.7 million cwt, down nearly 1 million cwt from last month. Global rice production in 2000/01 is projected at 399.2 million metric tons, down 1.1 million tons from last month's largely trend-based projection, and a decrease of 3.5 million tons from the record 1999/2000 crop. Global consumption is projected at a record 401.5 million tons. World ending stocks in 2000/01 are projected at 60.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month, but 2.3 million tons below 1999/2000. Although 1999/2000 global rice production is nearly unchanged from last month, there are some significant country-level changes. China's rice crop is lowered 2.1 million tons to 138.9 million tons based on official statistics. India's rice crop is raised 1.75 million tons to 88.25 million tons based on official statistics from India. Vietnam's rice crop is raised 0.4 million tons, to a record 20.9 million tons. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseeds stocks for 2000/01 are projected to rebound sharply to near-record levels as production gains easily outpace gains in crush and exports. U.S. oilseed production is projected at a record 91 million tons, up 9 million tons from last year, but down 0.6 million from last month. Soybean production is up 8.1 million tons to a record 80 million tons or 2.94 billion bushels, based on record acreage and trend yields. Production gains are forecast for cottonseed and rapeseed, while peanuts and sunflowerseed are forecast to decline. Peanut production is down in part due to extremely dry conditions in the Southeast. U.S. oilseeds use is projected to rise from 1999/2000, but by only 2 million tons. U.S. soybean crush accounts for most of the increase, and is projected at 1.61 billion bushels, up 40 million bushels from June. Soybean exports are forecast at 970 million bushels, slightly above last year's record. Supply increases for key importers, notably China and India, and slowing demand for protein meals in the EU are expected to limit U.S. export gains for soybeans and soybean meal. U.S. soybean oil exports are expected to rebound, helped by a slowing of palm oil production and reduced global output of high-oil-content seeds. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2000/01 are projected to decline to $3.90 to $4.90 per bushel compared with $4.65 for 1999/2000. Projected soybean meal prices of $140 to $170 per short ton compare with $167.00 per ton estimated for 1999/2000. Soybean oil prices are projected at 15 to 18 cents compared with 15.7 cents for 1999/2000. Declining global vegetable oil stocks are expected to lend support to prices. Global oilseed production for 2000/01 is projected at a record 308.4 million metric tons, up over 10 million tons from 1999/2000, but down slightly from last month's preliminary projection. Soybean production of 168.5 million tons is up 12.6 million tons from 1999/2000, while other oilseed production is off 2.6 million tons, led by declines in high-oil-content seeds as producers react to low vegetable oil prices. U.S. oilseed production gains account for most of the global increase; foreign production is up only 1.6 million tons. Gains of 4.5 million tons in China and India are nearly offset by reductions in rapeseed production in the EU, Canada, and Australia, and reductions for sunflowerseed in Argentina and Russia. Many exporting countries show slight gains in soybean production. However, soybean supplies are still likely to be down due to sharply reduced carryin stocks. World protein meal and vegetable oil consumption are forecast to reach record levels in 2000/01, although growth is expected to slow. Global protein meal consumption is projected at 170.7 million tons, up only 1 percent from 1999/2000. Soybean meal consumption is forecast up 2 percent as production of competing meals declines. Protein demand growth is limited by a 2-percent reduction in projected EU consumption as grain prices fall relative to protein feeds. Global vegetable oil use of 85.7 million tons is up 3 percent from 1999/2000, a slower rate of growth than in recent years. Some slowing in demand growth is likely in major South Asian import markets. SUGAR: Projected 2000/01 U.S. production is increased 60,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, based on higher sugarbeet and sugarcane area forecast in the NASS Acreage report. Beet sugar production is increased 30,000 tons. Cane sugar production is raised 80,000 tons for Louisiana, more than offsetting a 50,000-ton decrease in Florida. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Production forecasts for red meats and poultry are little changed this month. Feedlot placements remain high, boosting annual beef production over 1999. However, fourth- quarter production is still forecast to decline below a year earlier as second-half feedlot placements decline. Production forecasts for 2001 are unchanged; USDA's July 21 Cattle report will provide the next indication of potential changes in beef production into 2001. USDA's June 23 Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to increase farrowings slightly by the last quarter of the year, but rising sow productivity is expected to increase hog numbers more rapidly. Pork production is increased for 2000 and 2001 as higher hog weights and inventories are forecast. Production is expected to remain below year-earlier levels through the first quarter of 2001, but expand the rest of the year. The hog price forecast for 2001 is reduced. Broiler and turkey production are lowered as the rate of eggs set has slowed in response to lower returns relative to last year. Milk production and CCC net removal forecasts are unchanged but continued weakness in product prices has led to slight reductions in milk price forecasts from last month. COTTON: Larger production, exports, and ending stocks highlight this month's 2000/01 U.S. projections. Production is projected at 19.3 million bales, up 300,000 bales, due to lower expected abandonment based on improved conditions thus far this season, especially in Texas. Exports are raised 200,000 bales as a result of larger U.S. production and higher import demand. These changes raise ending stocks marginally to 5.0 million bales, or about 27 percent of use. This month's world projections for 2000/01 include slightly higher production, consumption, and trade, and lower beginning and ending stocks. World production is up slightly to 87.4 million bales, mainly reflecting larger U.S. output. This month's projections of foreign consumption and trade reflect additional country-specific information. Indicated world consumption of 92.3 million bales is up 1.6 percent from last year, which is consistent with continued strong world economic growth. With consumption far in excess of production, world ending stocks are projected 4.7 million bales below the beginning level; nearly all of the decline is forecast to occur in China. On a month-to-month basis, ending stocks are reduced 0.9 million bales, due mainly to lower beginning stocks. The U.S. forecasts for 1999/2000 are unchanged. Foreign estimates show lower ending stocks as a result of reductions in beginning stocks and production. Beginning stocks are reduced due to prior-year revisions for Argentina and Brazil. Production is reduced mainly in India and Turkey. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: SHIRLEY R. WATKINS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on August 11, 2000. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report will be released on the following dates in 2000: August 11, September 12, October 12, November 9, and December 12. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. Mail subscriptions cost $50.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. This report is also available from the Government Printing Office. Call 202-783-3238 or write Superintendent of Documents, GPO, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO subscription inquires, call 202-512-1806. WASDE-364-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 1,872.76 2,204.73 256.20 1,848.00 356.73 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,864.43 2,221.16 266.65 1,878.25 342.91 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 1,868.86 2,207.93 267.23 1,889.38 318.55 July : 1,868.76 2,211.67 265.49 1,882.67 328.99 Wheat : 1998/99 : 588.58 727.31 121.85 589.54 137.76 1999/00 (Est.) : 585.67 723.43 127.63 596.78 126.65 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 575.81 701.69 126.93 595.44 106.25 July : 581.25 707.90 126.95 593.84 114.06 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 890.21 1,028.59 107.47 869.77 158.82 1999/00 (Est.) : 875.99 1,034.81 115.74 881.60 153.21 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 892.73 1,043.72 115.10 890.93 152.79 July : 888.27 1,041.48 113.52 887.36 154.12 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 393.98 448.83 26.89 388.69 60.14 1999/00 (Est.) : 402.78 462.92 23.28 399.87 63.05 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 400.31 462.51 25.20 403.00 59.51 July : 399.23 462.28 25.02 401.48 60.81 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 346.71 411.61 86.99 246.80 77.81 1999/00 (Est.) : 332.67 416.18 87.13 250.55 78.49 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 337.43 418.87 90.23 253.13 75.51 July : 344.91 429.21 91.46 250.07 87.68 Wheat : 1998/99 : 69.33 91.79 28.36 37.69 25.74 1999/00 (Est.) : 62.66 90.96 29.67 35.44 25.86 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 60.20 87.89 30.62 35.25 22.03 July : 61.03 89.61 29.94 33.91 25.76 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 271.47 312.69 55.95 205.37 51.37 1999/00 (Est.) : 263.38 317.54 54.66 211.43 51.45 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 270.93 323.11 56.84 214.11 52.16 July : 277.77 331.96 58.74 212.40 60.82 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 5.91 7.12 2.68 3.75 0.69 1999/00 (Est.) : 6.64 7.67 2.81 3.68 1.19 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 6.31 7.87 2.77 3.77 1.32 July : 6.10 7.64 2.77 3.77 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-364-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 1,526.05 1,793.12 169.21 1,601.20 278.92 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,531.76 1,804.98 179.51 1,627.70 264.42 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 1,531.42 1,789.06 176.99 1,636.25 243.05 July : 1,523.85 1,782.46 174.03 1,632.60 241.32 Wheat : 1998/99 : 519.25 635.51 93.49 551.86 112.02 1999/00 (Est.) : 523.00 632.47 97.97 561.34 100.79 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 515.61 613.81 96.31 560.19 84.23 July : 520.22 618.29 97.01 559.93 88.30 Coarse grains 5/ : 1998/99 : 618.73 715.90 51.52 664.40 107.45 1999/00 (Est.) : 612.61 717.27 61.08 670.17 101.76 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 621.80 720.61 58.26 676.82 100.62 July : 610.50 709.53 54.78 674.96 93.31 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 388.06 441.71 24.20 384.94 59.45 1999/00 (Est.) : 396.14 455.25 20.47 396.19 61.86 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 394.00 454.65 22.43 399.23 58.19 July : 393.13 454.64 22.24 397.71 59.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1998/99 : 84.65 128.52 23.98 84.93 45.05 1999/00 (Est.) : 86.64 131.69 27.05 90.84 40.76 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 87.00 128.99 27.70 92.00 36.99 July : 87.37 128.12 28.10 92.27 36.05 : United States 1998/99 : 13.92 18.25 4.34 10.40 3.94 1999/00 (Est.) : 16.97 21.01 6.80 10.10 4.10 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 19.00 23.15 8.00 10.20 4.90 July : 19.30 23.45 8.20 10.20 5.00 : Foreign 3/ 1998/99 : 70.74 110.28 19.64 74.53 41.11 1999/00 (Est.) : 69.67 110.68 20.25 80.74 36.66 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 68.00 105.84 19.70 81.80 32.09 July : 68.07 104.67 19.90 82.07 31.05 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-364-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 293.65 318.46 54.54 239.79 28.64 1999/00 (Est.) : 297.87 326.51 62.95 248.24 25.07 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 310.00 335.04 July : 308.42 333.49 59.41 249.07 29.41 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 163.89 169.43 53.96 162.72 6.32 1999/00 (Est.) : 169.57 175.89 54.68 168.91 6.42 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : July : 170.68 177.10 55.14 170.71 5.90 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 80.49 87.41 31.56 79.17 7.42 1999/00 (Est.) : 84.90 92.33 31.96 83.14 8.06 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : July : 86.13 94.19 32.76 85.73 7.59 : : United States Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 84.36 91.49 22.63 47.81 10.78 1999/00 (Est.) : 82.02 93.28 27.08 47.67 8.80 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 91.58 101.01 27.52 48.76 14.65 July : 91.01 100.16 27.27 48.71 14.21 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 36.81 38.34 6.71 31.30 0.33 1999/00 (Est.) : 36.56 38.08 6.59 31.15 0.34 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 37.35 38.98 6.77 31.90 0.31 July : 37.35 38.97 6.73 31.93 0.31 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 9.44 11.86 1.65 9.21 1.00 1999/00 (Est.) : 9.31 11.83 1.11 9.59 1.13 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 9.65 12.39 1.44 9.92 1.15 July : 9.52 12.38 1.31 9.96 1.10 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 209.29 226.97 31.91 191.98 17.86 1999/00 (Est.) : 215.85 233.23 35.86 200.57 16.27 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : 218.42 July : 217.41 233.33 32.14 200.36 15.20 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 127.08 131.09 47.25 131.42 5.98 1999/00 (Est.) : 133.01 137.81 48.09 137.76 6.08 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : July : 133.33 138.13 48.42 138.78 5.59 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 71.05 75.55 29.91 69.96 6.43 1999/00 (Est.) : 75.59 80.50 30.85 73.55 6.93 2000/01 (Proj.) : June : July : 76.61 81.81 31.45 75.76 6.49 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-364-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 65.8 62.8 61.7 * 62.9 Harvested : 59.0 53.9 52.5 * 54.4 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 43.2 42.7 42.1 * 41.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 722 946 917 950 Production : 2,547 2,302 2,212 2,243 Imports : 103 94 100 100 Supply, total : 3,373 3,342 3,229 3,293 Food : 908 920 935 935 Seed : 81 92 85 86 Feed and residual : 396 290 275 225 Domestic, total : 1,385 1,302 1,295 1,246 Exports : 1,042 1,090 1,125 1,100 Use, total : 2,427 2,392 2,420 2,346 Ending stocks : 946 950 809 947 CCC inventory : 128 104 Free stocks : 818 846 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.65 2.50 2.40- 2.90 2.25- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1999/00 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 435 233 136 87 55 946 Production : 1,055 448 453 247 99 2,302 Supply, total 3/ : 1,491 740 589 340 182 3,342 Domestic use : 545 292 284 89 92 1,302 Exports : 490 230 170 160 40 1,090 Use, total : 1,035 522 454 249 132 2,392 Ending stocks, total : 456 218 135 91 50 950 : 2000/01 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 456 218 135 91 50 950 Production : 887 470 467 290 128 2,243 Supply, total 3/ : 1,344 750 602 388 208 3,293 Domestic use : 514 277 268 96 91 1,246 Exports : 470 230 190 170 40 1,100 Use, total : 984 507 458 266 131 2,346 Ending stocks, total : 360 243 144 122 77 947 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June 11 Crop Production. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1995-1999. For July: Area planted, area harvested, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production report. WASDE-364-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 101.0 96.6 96.9 * 98.6 * Harvested : 88.9 86.3 86.8 * 88.9 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.05 3.12 3.12 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 38.1 51.3 49.4 51.4 Production : 271.2 263.1 270.6 277.6 Imports : 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 312.3 317.1 322.7 331.6 Feed and residual : 152.3 156.1 157.4 156.2 Food, seed & industrial : 52.7 54.9 56.3 55.9 Domestic, total : 205.0 211.0 213.7 212.1 Exports : 55.9 54.7 56.8 58.7 Use, total : 261.0 265.7 270.6 270.8 Ending stocks, total : 51.3 51.4 52.1 60.8 CCC inventory : 0.3 0.4 Free stocks : 51.0 51.0 Outstanding loans : 10.3 9.1 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 80.2 77.4 77.9 * 79.6 * Harvested : 72.6 70.5 71.1 * 73.1 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 134.4 133.8 137.0 * 137.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,308 1,787 1,759 1,819 Production : 9,759 9,437 9,740 10,013 Imports : 19 15 10 10 Supply, total : 11,085 11,239 11,509 11,842 Feed and residual : 5,471 5,625 5,700 5,650 Food, seed & industrial : 1,846 1,920 1,975 1,960 Domestic, total : 7,318 7,545 7,675 7,610 Exports : 1,981 1,875 1,975 2,050 Use, total : 9,298 9,420 9,650 9,660 Ending stocks, total : 1,787 1,819 1,859 2,182 CCC inventory : 12 15 Free stocks : 1,775 1,804 Outstanding loans : 391 350 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 1.80 1.65- 2.05 1.50- 1.90 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June-- Corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1996-99, excluding 1998. For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. For June and July: Projected yield is derived from an econometric model fit over 1975-99 using a trend variable, July rainfall and temperatures, and planting progress as of mid-May. WASDE-364-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.3 9.0 * 8.8 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.5 8.0 * 8.1 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.3 69.7 69.5 * 69.5 * Beginning stocks : 49 65 45 65 Production : 520 595 556 564 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 569 660 601 629 Feed and residual : 262 290 260 260 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 55 55 Total domestic : 307 345 315 315 Exports : 197 250 240 240 Use, total : 504 595 555 555 Ending stocks, total : 65 65 46 74 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.66 1.55 1.35- 1.75 1.25- 1.65 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 5.2 5.7 * 5.7 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.9 4.8 5.3 * 5.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.0 59.2 61.0 * 58.7 * Beginning stocks : 119 142 112 112 Production : 352 282 320 307 Imports : 30 27 30 30 Supply, total : 501 451 462 449 Feed and residual : 161 137 145 145 Food, seed & industrial : 170 172 172 172 Total domestic : 331 309 317 317 Exports : 28 30 25 25 Use, total : 360 339 342 342 Ending stocks, total : 142 112 120 107 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.98 2.15 1.80- 2.20 1.65- 2.05 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.9 4.7 4.4 * 4.5 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.8 2.5 2.5 * 2.5 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.2 59.6 59.8 * 61.2 * Beginning stocks : 74 81 78 76 Production : 166 146 148 151 Imports : 108 100 100 100 Supply, total : 348 328 326 327 Feed and residual : 196 181 180 180 Food, seed & industrial : 69 68 68 68 Total domestic : 265 250 248 248 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 266 252 250 250 Ending stocks, total : 81 76 76 77 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.10 0.90- 1.30 0.85- 1.25 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June-- Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1996-99, excluding 1998 for sorghum and 1997-99 for barley. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-99 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 31, Prospective Plantings. For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-99 period. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in Crop Production. WASDE-364-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.58 3.40 * 3.27 * Harvested : 3.32 3.56 3.37 * 3.25 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,669 5,908 5,935 * 5,963 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.9 22.1 38.5 37.7 Production : 188.1 210.5 200.0 193.5 Imports : 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.0 Supply, total : 226.5 243.3 249.5 242.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 119.1 116.6 119.6 119.4 Exports, total 4/ : 85.3 89.0 88.0 88.0 Rough : 25.8 26.5 25.0 26.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 59.6 62.5 63.0 62.0 Use, total : 204.4 205.6 207.6 207.4 Ending stocks : 22.1 37.7 41.9 34.8 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.3 69.5 69.5 69.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.89 6.10- 6.20 4.75- 5.75 5.25- 6.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.61 2.74 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,430 5,629 Beginning stocks : 14.5 14.1 31.0 30.5 Production : 141.6 154.1 138.2 132.0 Supply, total 7/ : 164.7 177.7 179.0 172.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.9 77.7 80.0 79.9 Exports 8/ : 70.7 69.5 69.0 68.0 Use, total : 150.6 147.2 149.0 147.9 Ending stocks : 14.1 30.5 30.0 24.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.71 0.82 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,548 6,835 Beginning stocks : 12.3 6.8 6.3 6.0 Production : 46.4 56.3 61.8 61.5 Supply, total 7/ : 60.7 64.3 69.3 68.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 38.9 39.6 39.5 Exports 8/ : 14.6 19.5 19.0 20.0 Use, total : 53.9 58.4 58.6 59.5 Ending stocks : 6.8 6.0 10.7 9.2 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1998/99-1.0; 1999/00-1.2 2000/01-1.2. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For June: Planted acres reported in March 31, 2000 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1995-99. For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. For June and July: Projected yield is calculated using an Olympic average (high and low years excluded) by State and type of rice. A five year Olympic average for the years 1995-1999 is used in all States except California where a ten year Olympic average for the years 1990-1999 is used. WASDE-364-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 72.0 73.8 74.9 * 74.5 ** Harvested : 70.4 72.5 73.9 * 73.5 ** : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.9 36.5 40.0 * 40.0 ** : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 200 348 300 290 Production : 2,741 2,643 2,955 2,940 Imports : 3 3 3 3 Supply, total : 2,944 2,994 3,258 3,233 Crushings : 1,590 1,570 1,610 1,610 Exports : 801 965 980 970 Seed : 88 90 90 90 Residual : 116 80 83 83 Use, total : 2,595 2,705 2,763 2,752 Ending stocks : 348 290 495 480 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.93 4.65 4.00- 5.00 3.90 - 4.90 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,382 1,520 1,785 1,785 Production : 18,081 17,725 _3/ 18,275 18,275 Imports : 82 90 90 90 Supply, total : 19,546 19,335 20,150 20,150 Domestic : 15,655 16,300 16,500 16,650 Exports : 2,372 1,250 1,800 1,750 Use, total : 18,027 17,550 18,300 18,400 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,785 1,850 1,750 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 19.90 15.70 15.00- 15.00- : 18.00 18.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 218 330 325 325 Production : 37,792 37,335 _3/ 38,235 38,235 Imports : 99 60 65 65 Supply, total : 38,109 37,725 38,625 38,625 Domestic : 30,662 30,400 31,200 31,200 Exports : 7,117 7,000 7,150 7,150 Use, total : 37,779 37,400 38,350 38,350 Ending stocks : 330 325 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 138.50 167.00 145.00- 140.00- : 175.00 170.00 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,565 million bushels. * Planted acres reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on normal planted-to-harvested ratio. **Planted and harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report. Projected yield based on U.S. yield trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-364-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :====================== : : Estimate : June July ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,679 1,639 1,938 1,937 Production 2/3/ : 8,374 9,075 9,023 9,083 Beet sugar : 4,423 4,950 4,700 4,730 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,951 4,125 4,323 4,353 Imports 2/ : 1,824 1,702 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,256 1,204 NA NA Other 6/ : 568 498 448 448 Total supply : 11,877 12,416 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 230 229 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,066 10,250 10,385 10,385 Domestic food use : 9,872 10,115 10,225 10,225 Other 8/ : 194 135 160 160 Miscellaneous 9/ : (58) 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,238 10,479 10,560 10,560 Ending stocks 2/ 10/ : 1,639 1,937 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 16.0 18.5 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2000/01 are based on June Acreage report and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1999/2000 (projected 2000/01): FL 1,976 (2,040); HI 360 (330); LA 1,680 (1,800); TX 105 (160); PR 4 (23). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1999/2000 available TRQ includes projected shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. 10/ Includes 141,240 tons of sugar purchased by the Commodity Credit Corportation. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-364-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.39 14.87 15.56 * 15.55 * Harvested : 10.68 13.42 14.36 * 14.60 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 625 607 635 * 635 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.89 3.94 4.10 4.10 Production : 13.92 16.97 19.00 19.30 Imports : 0.44 0.10 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 18.25 21.01 23.15 23.45 Domestic use : 10.40 10.10 10.20 10.20 Exports : 4.34 6.80 8.00 8.20 Use, total : 14.75 16.90 18.20 18.40 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.44 0.01 0.05 0.05 Ending stocks : 3.94 4.10 4.90 5.00 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 60.2 44.9 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1999/2000 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-May. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * For June, planted area reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. For July, planted area reported in June 30 Acreage. Projected harvested area based on 1990-1999 average acreage abandonment by State, with July adjusted for current conditions. Projected yield based on 1990-1999 average yield by State. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 1999/2000 is 23.5 percent. WASDE-364-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 138.73 588.58 120.80 106.74 589.54 121.85 137.76 United States : 19.66 69.33 2.80 10.78 37.69 28.36 25.74 Total foreign : 119.07 519.25 118.00 95.96 551.86 93.49 112.02 Major exporters 4/ : 22.28 161.47 25.40 52.41 105.23 74.83 29.09 Argentina : 0.42 12.20 0.03 0.10 4.15 8.20 0.30 Australia : 1.35 22.11 0.06 2.79 5.11 16.00 2.40 Canada : 6.01 24.08 0.15 4.22 8.16 14.71 7.37 EU-15 : 14.50 103.09 25.17 45.31 87.81 35.93 19.02 Major importers 5/ : 50.49 178.61 35.91 18.76 212.35 5.40 47.25 Brazil : 0.55 2.19 7.12 0.20 9.30 0.00 0.55 China : 33.46 109.73 0.82 5.00 115.66 0.44 27.90 East. Europe : 7.64 33.23 2.17 11.95 31.59 4.45 7.00 N. Africa : 4.41 14.20 16.79 0.31 28.32 0.23 6.85 Pakistan : 3.21 18.69 3.13 0.40 21.28 0.00 3.75 Selected other : India : 10.08 66.35 1.99 0.35 67.34 0.00 11.08 FSU-12 6/ : 17.24 55.85 5.31 17.07 64.24 8.50 5.65 Russia : 8.00 27.00 2.50 11.15 34.94 1.56 1.00 Kazakstan : 3.00 4.70 0.02 1.10 4.62 2.30 0.80 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 137.76 585.67 125.16 104.65 596.78 127.63 126.65 United States : 25.74 62.66 2.56 7.89 35.44 29.67 25.86 Total foreign : 112.02 523.00 122.61 96.76 561.34 97.97 100.79 Major exporters 4/ : 29.09 162.84 25.33 55.05 107.53 83.53 26.20 Argentina : 0.30 15.00 0.03 0.30 4.50 10.50 0.33 Australia : 2.40 24.10 0.05 3.30 5.63 18.00 2.93 Canada : 7.37 26.85 0.15 4.50 8.45 18.50 7.42 EU-15 : 19.02 96.89 25.10 46.95 88.95 36.53 15.53 Major importers 5/ : 47.25 175.17 33.53 17.36 213.37 4.30 38.28 Brazil : 0.55 2.50 7.00 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.55 China : 27.90 113.88 1.00 5.00 117.00 0.50 25.28 East. Europe : 7.00 28.65 2.23 10.55 30.39 3.33 4.15 N. Africa : 6.85 11.71 15.20 0.31 28.89 0.17 4.70 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.20 0.40 21.40 0.00 2.40 Selected other : India : 11.08 70.78 1.70 0.35 69.25 0.20 14.11 FSU-12 6/ : 5.65 64.94 7.79 17.18 65.11 6.80 6.47 Russia : 1.00 31.00 4.80 11.30 35.50 0.30 1.00 Kazakstan : 0.80 11.20 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.50 2.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-364-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 125.88 575.81 127.11 104.56 595.44 126.93 106.25 July : 126.65 581.25 126.01 102.00 593.84 126.95 114.06 United States : June : 24.97 60.20 2.72 7.48 35.25 30.62 22.03 July : 25.86 61.03 2.72 6.12 33.91 29.94 25.76 Total foreign : June : 100.91 515.61 124.39 97.08 560.19 96.31 84.23 July : 100.79 520.22 123.29 95.88 559.93 97.01 88.30 Major exporters 4/ : June : 26.10 168.45 25.80 57.28 110.60 84.55 25.20 July : 26.20 171.56 25.05 57.73 111.01 85.75 26.05 Argentina Jun : 0.33 15.00 0.03 0.30 4.50 10.50 0.35 Jul : 0.33 15.50 0.03 0.45 4.75 10.50 0.60 Australia Jun : 2.93 23.00 0.05 3.40 5.75 18.00 2.23 Jul : 2.93 23.00 0.05 3.40 5.75 18.00 2.23 Canada Jun : 7.42 24.50 0.15 4.50 8.45 18.00 5.62 Jul : 7.42 26.00 0.15 4.50 8.45 19.00 6.12 EU-15 Jun : 15.44 105.95 25.58 49.08 91.90 38.05 17.01 Jul : 15.53 107.06 24.83 49.38 92.06 38.25 17.11 Major importers 5/ : June : 39.63 164.77 37.48 16.16 211.21 3.35 27.33 July : 38.28 162.18 37.23 14.36 209.00 3.15 25.53 Brazil Jun : 0.55 2.20 7.20 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.45 Jul : 0.55 2.30 7.20 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.55 China Jun : 26.40 104.00 3.50 3.00 115.00 0.50 18.40 Jul : 25.28 102.00 3.50 2.00 114.00 0.50 16.28 East. Europe Jun : 4.45 28.70 2.88 11.35 29.85 2.28 3.90 Jul : 4.15 27.00 3.08 10.45 28.65 2.18 3.40 N. Africa Jun : 4.65 9.28 17.50 0.31 28.91 0.17 2.35 Jul : 4.70 9.28 17.50 0.31 28.91 0.17 2.40 Pakistan Jun : 2.70 20.00 0.50 0.40 21.75 0.00 1.45 Jul : 2.40 21.00 0.05 0.50 21.75 0.00 1.70 Selected other : India Jun : 14.11 71.00 0.05 0.50 71.00 0.00 14.16 Jul : 14.11 74.00 0.05 0.50 71.50 0.20 16.46 FSU-12 6/ Jun : 6.37 61.83 6.14 16.78 64.54 5.10 4.70 Jul : 6.47 62.88 5.69 16.68 64.44 4.60 6.00 Russia Jun : 1.00 33.00 3.00 11.10 35.30 0.50 1.20 Jul : 1.00 34.00 3.00 11.10 35.30 0.50 2.20 Kazakstan Jun : 2.52 7.00 0.02 1.50 5.00 3.50 1.03 Jul : 2.52 7.00 0.02 1.50 5.00 3.50 1.03 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-364-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 138.38 890.21 108.37 576.46 869.77 107.47 158.82 United States : 38.15 271.47 3.07 152.38 205.37 55.95 51.37 Total foreign : 100.23 618.73 105.30 424.08 664.40 51.52 107.45 Major exporters 4/ : 9.24 62.04 1.59 35.73 46.88 17.41 8.59 Argentina : 2.43 17.76 0.01 8.05 10.04 8.58 1.59 Australia : 1.14 9.60 0.02 3.86 5.12 4.98 0.66 Canada : 4.27 26.57 0.83 19.93 23.37 3.21 5.09 Major importers 5/ : 41.39 200.50 65.41 173.72 237.15 26.63 43.51 EU-15 : 21.89 105.55 17.34 73.16 96.33 23.23 25.21 East. Europe : 10.21 51.70 1.64 40.45 52.07 3.09 8.39 Japan : 2.64 0.15 20.92 16.55 21.27 0.00 2.44 Mexico : 2.85 24.70 9.10 17.47 33.48 0.05 3.11 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.94 3.12 13.33 18.06 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.49 7.83 6.10 8.33 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 27.10 144.19 2.62 95.42 130.86 3.36 39.69 FSU-12 6/ : 12.32 37.92 1.51 26.41 45.01 2.30 4.44 Russia : 7.42 18.95 1.19 13.62 25.64 0.14 1.78 Ukraine : 3.31 10.35 0.04 6.18 10.58 1.62 1.50 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 158.82 875.99 108.22 579.74 881.60 115.74 153.21 United States : 51.37 263.38 2.80 156.29 211.43 54.66 51.45 Total foreign : 107.45 612.61 105.42 423.45 670.17 61.08 101.76 Major exporters 4/ : 8.59 65.40 1.41 35.46 48.12 18.49 8.78 Argentina : 1.59 20.51 0.01 8.48 10.73 9.60 1.78 Australia : 0.66 8.00 0.02 3.54 4.65 3.42 0.61 Canada : 5.09 26.77 0.85 19.45 24.08 3.68 4.95 Major importers 5/ : 43.51 200.97 65.72 175.05 238.88 30.85 40.47 EU-15 : 25.21 103.05 15.76 71.19 94.30 27.65 22.07 East. Europe : 8.39 54.60 1.72 40.70 52.84 3.05 8.81 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.44 16.22 20.78 0.00 2.31 Mexico : 3.11 25.95 9.11 18.88 34.86 0.05 3.26 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.76 3.80 13.85 18.83 0.10 1.33 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 8.95 7.15 9.41 0.00 0.51 Selected other : China : 39.69 138.63 2.65 97.07 133.16 9.03 38.78 FSU-12 6/ : 4.44 40.87 2.05 26.60 41.69 1.77 3.89 Russia : 1.78 21.80 1.68 14.52 24.38 0.15 0.72 Ukraine : 1.50 9.95 0.06 6.17 9.37 0.85 1.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-364-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 150.99 892.73 112.91 589.01 890.93 115.10 152.79 July : 153.21 888.27 110.47 587.53 887.36 113.52 154.12 United States : June : 49.45 270.93 2.73 157.58 214.11 56.84 52.16 July : 51.45 277.77 2.73 156.24 212.40 58.74 60.82 Total foreign : June : 101.54 621.80 110.17 431.44 676.82 58.26 100.62 July : 101.76 610.50 107.74 431.29 674.96 54.78 93.31 Major exporters 4/ : June : 8.83 68.81 0.80 36.32 48.33 19.69 10.42 July : 8.78 67.01 1.00 36.41 48.34 19.39 9.07 Argentina Jun : 1.83 20.76 0.05 8.22 10.58 10.15 1.91 Jul : 1.78 20.76 0.01 8.35 10.54 10.15 1.86 Australia Jun : 0.61 8.56 0.00 3.65 4.52 3.96 0.68 Jul : 0.61 8.56 0.02 3.55 4.53 3.96 0.68 Canada Jun : 4.95 29.57 0.55 20.32 24.46 4.58 6.03 Jul : 4.95 27.77 0.75 20.32 24.46 4.28 4.73 Major importers 5/ : June : 41.32 201.59 67.54 175.86 240.55 30.19 39.71 July : 40.47 196.44 66.51 174.86 237.77 27.75 37.90 EU-15 Jun : 23.86 106.60 17.11 74.68 98.00 26.92 22.65 Jul : 22.07 108.72 15.92 75.44 98.00 26.38 22.32 East. Europe Jun : 8.23 51.58 1.91 38.71 50.31 3.13 8.28 Jul : 8.81 44.30 2.00 35.31 47.64 1.23 6.25 Japan Jun : 2.31 0.16 20.19 14.49 20.48 0.00 2.18 Jul : 2.31 0.16 20.19 16.07 20.48 0.00 2.18 Mexico Jun : 3.26 26.00 9.51 19.43 35.21 0.05 3.51 Jul : 3.26 26.00 9.51 19.43 35.21 0.05 3.51 Southeast Asia Jun : 1.18 14.86 3.90 14.17 19.00 0.10 0.83 Jul : 1.33 14.86 3.90 14.17 19.00 0.10 0.98 South Korea Jun : 0.51 0.49 8.91 6.91 9.31 0.00 0.60 Jul : 0.51 0.49 8.95 7.15 9.36 0.00 0.60 Selected other : China Jun : 38.67 135.60 2.85 96.57 134.40 6.03 36.69 Jul : 38.78 132.60 2.75 99.47 136.30 5.03 32.80 FSU-12 6/ Jun : 3.88 45.78 0.88 28.97 44.00 1.19 5.35 Jul : 3.89 44.43 0.85 27.59 42.97 1.46 4.73 Russia Jun : 0.82 26.50 0.53 15.55 25.20 0.30 2.34 Jul : 0.72 25.75 0.53 14.70 24.68 0.30 2.02 Ukraine Jun : 1.18 10.10 0.11 6.71 9.95 0.50 0.94 Jul : 1.28 10.00 0.11 6.43 9.65 0.80 0.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-364-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 88.61 605.94 75.55 408.73 583.20 75.55 111.35 United States : 33.22 247.88 0.48 138.98 185.88 50.31 45.39 Total foreign : 55.39 358.06 75.08 269.75 397.32 25.24 65.96 Major exporters 4/ : 2.94 21.20 0.57 8.50 14.22 8.53 1.96 Argentina : 1.54 13.50 0.00 4.85 6.45 7.88 0.71 South Africa : 1.40 7.70 0.57 3.65 7.77 0.65 1.25 Major importers 5/ : 17.86 95.12 50.21 95.00 133.89 11.72 17.58 EU-15 : 4.37 35.30 11.77 30.12 37.95 8.93 4.56 Japan : 1.45 0.00 16.34 12.10 16.44 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 1.50 17.79 5.62 7.51 23.02 0.05 1.84 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.74 3.12 13.14 17.85 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.08 7.52 5.92 7.62 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 26.00 132.95 0.26 93.02 117.26 3.34 38.62 FSU-12 6/ : 2.73 5.28 0.62 4.26 6.86 0.43 1.33 Russia : 0.55 0.80 0.52 1.05 1.71 0.01 0.15 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 111.35 604.96 75.45 420.20 602.04 80.43 114.27 United States : 45.39 239.72 0.38 142.88 191.65 47.63 46.21 Total foreign : 65.96 365.25 75.06 277.32 410.39 32.80 68.06 Major exporters 4/ : 1.96 25.70 0.35 8.70 14.85 10.80 2.36 Argentina : 0.71 16.00 0.00 5.00 6.80 9.00 0.91 South Africa : 1.25 9.70 0.35 3.70 8.05 1.80 1.45 Major importers 5/ : 17.58 101.73 49.59 98.87 137.78 11.89 19.23 EU-15 : 4.56 37.22 10.30 30.26 37.91 8.96 5.20 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.25 12.15 16.35 0.00 1.26 Mexico : 1.84 19.00 4.60 7.65 23.10 0.05 2.29 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.56 3.80 13.66 18.63 0.10 1.33 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.50 6.80 8.55 0.00 0.51 Selected other : China : 38.62 128.08 0.25 95.00 119.95 9.00 38.00 FSU-12 6/ : 1.33 5.46 0.81 4.70 6.35 0.15 1.10 Russia : 0.15 1.10 0.70 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-364-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 112.31 614.73 77.85 427.96 611.25 79.69 115.79 July : 114.27 610.06 76.65 427.58 607.86 78.85 116.48 United States : June : 44.69 247.41 0.25 144.79 194.95 50.17 47.23 July : 46.21 254.34 0.25 143.52 193.30 52.07 55.43 Total foreign : June : 67.62 367.32 77.60 283.17 416.29 29.53 68.56 July : 68.06 355.72 76.40 284.06 414.55 26.78 61.04 Major exporters 4/ : June : 2.36 26.00 0.05 9.00 15.10 10.50 2.81 July : 2.36 26.00 0.05 9.00 15.10 10.50 2.81 Argentina Jun : 0.91 16.50 0.00 5.10 6.90 9.50 1.01 Jul : 0.91 16.50 0.00 5.10 6.90 9.50 1.01 South Africa Jun : 1.45 9.50 0.05 3.90 8.20 1.00 1.80 Jul : 1.45 9.50 0.05 3.90 8.20 1.00 1.80 Major importers 5/ : June : 19.14 103.30 50.65 99.56 140.73 11.72 20.64 July : 19.23 96.40 50.17 98.60 137.63 10.14 18.03 EU-15 Jun : 5.86 38.77 11.11 31.26 39.93 8.59 7.20 Jul : 5.20 38.64 10.58 31.28 39.36 8.92 6.14 Japan Jun : 1.26 0.00 16.10 10.50 16.15 0.00 1.21 Jul : 1.26 0.00 16.10 12.10 16.15 0.00 1.21 Mexico Jun : 2.29 19.00 5.00 8.40 23.60 0.05 2.64 Jul : 2.29 19.00 5.00 8.40 23.60 0.05 2.64 Southeast Asia Jun : 1.18 14.66 3.90 13.98 18.80 0.10 0.83 Jul : 1.33 14.66 3.90 13.98 18.80 0.10 0.98 South Korea Jun : 0.51 0.09 8.50 6.60 8.50 0.00 0.60 Jul : 0.51 0.09 8.50 6.80 8.50 0.00 0.60 Selected other : China Jun : 37.92 125.00 0.25 95.00 121.00 6.00 36.17 Jul : 38.00 122.00 0.25 98.00 123.00 5.00 32.25 FSU-12 6/ Jun : 1.11 7.18 0.26 5.24 6.85 0.25 1.45 Jul : 1.10 6.68 0.26 5.04 6.65 0.25 1.15 Russia Jun : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 Jul : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-364-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 3/ : 54.85 393.98 25.87 388.69 26.89 60.14 United States : 0.88 5.91 0.33 3.75 2.68 0.69 Total foreign : 53.98 388.06 25.54 384.94 24.20 59.45 Major exporters 4/ : 11.67 125.96 0.07 108.27 16.42 13.01 Thailand : 1.05 15.18 0.00 8.90 6.68 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 20.11 0.06 15.61 4.56 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.06 52.59 12.56 61.67 1.38 9.16 Indonesia : 3.53 32.10 3.90 35.50 0.00 4.03 Selected other : China : 26.72 139.10 0.17 136.00 2.71 27.29 Japan : 3.05 8.15 0.65 9.10 0.20 2.55 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 3/ : 60.14 402.78 21.04 399.87 23.28 63.05 United States : 0.69 6.64 0.34 3.68 2.81 1.19 Total foreign : 59.45 396.14 20.70 396.19 20.47 61.86 Major exporters 4/ : 13.01 130.10 0.09 112.74 12.45 18.01 Thailand : 0.65 15.85 0.00 9.00 6.00 1.50 Vietnam : 0.00 20.90 0.04 17.54 3.40 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 9.16 53.18 9.50 62.92 1.36 7.55 Indonesia : 4.03 32.10 2.00 35.70 0.00 2.43 Selected other : China : 27.29 138.94 0.20 137.00 2.80 26.63 Japan : 2.55 8.35 0.72 9.45 0.40 1.77 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 62.20 400.31 23.30 403.00 25.20 59.51 July : 63.05 399.23 23.95 401.48 25.02 60.81 United States : June : 1.21 6.31 0.35 3.77 2.77 1.32 July : 1.19 6.10 0.35 3.77 2.77 1.10 Total foreign : June : 60.99 394.00 22.95 399.23 22.43 58.19 July : 61.86 393.13 23.60 397.71 22.24 59.71 Major exporters 4/ : June : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- July : 18.01 130.00 0.09 113.39 14.30 20.41 Thailand Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 1.50 15.85 0.00 9.10 6.60 1.65 Vietnam Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 0.00 20.75 0.04 16.79 4.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : June : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- July : 7.55 52.82 11.48 63.76 1.29 6.79 Indonesia Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 2.43 32.00 3.00 36.00 0.00 1.43 Selected other : China Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 26.63 137.20 0.25 136.75 3.00 24.33 Japan Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 1.77 8.00 0.75 9.10 0.40 1.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-364-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 21.67 159.41 40.65 135.05 158.98 38.42 24.33 United States : 5.44 74.60 0.08 43.26 48.82 21.81 9.48 Total foreign : 16.23 84.81 40.56 91.79 110.16 16.60 14.84 Major exporters 3/ : 13.74 54.20 1.10 39.17 42.18 14.43 12.43 Argentina : 7.23 19.90 0.50 17.51 18.27 3.23 6.12 Brazil : 6.50 31.30 0.60 21.01 23.20 8.90 6.30 Major importers 4/ : 1.86 18.63 32.13 37.45 49.85 0.93 1.85 EU-15 : 0.95 1.54 17.18 16.33 17.89 0.75 1.02 Japan : 0.63 0.16 4.81 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.62 China : 0.00 15.15 3.85 12.00 18.82 0.18 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 24.33 155.89 45.35 136.87 160.20 45.49 19.87 United States : 9.48 71.93 0.08 42.73 47.35 26.26 7.88 Total foreign : 14.84 83.96 45.26 94.15 112.85 19.23 11.99 Major exporters 3/ : 12.43 55.00 1.20 39.05 42.07 16.90 9.66 Argentina : 6.12 20.70 0.50 16.90 17.67 5.10 4.55 Brazil : 6.30 31.40 0.70 21.50 23.70 9.60 5.10 Major importers 4/ : 1.85 17.43 36.15 40.30 52.78 0.95 1.69 EU-15 : 1.02 1.14 16.68 15.92 17.25 0.74 0.85 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.75 3.68 4.96 0.00 0.60 China : 0.00 14.29 7.70 14.86 21.79 0.20 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 19.87 168.53 43.83 139.02 162.87 44.06 25.30 United States : July : 7.88 80.01 0.08 43.82 48.51 26.40 13.07 Total foreign : July : 11.99 88.51 43.75 95.20 114.36 17.66 12.23 Major exporters 3/ : July : 9.66 57.30 1.00 39.65 42.65 15.30 10.01 Argentina Jul : 4.55 21.50 0.50 17.00 17.75 4.10 4.70 Brazil Jul : 5.10 32.80 0.50 22.00 24.20 8.90 5.30 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.69 19.02 34.38 39.87 52.71 0.91 1.47 EU-15 Jul : 0.85 1.15 16.33 15.72 16.95 0.75 0.64 Japan Jul : 0.60 0.19 4.70 3.67 4.93 0.00 0.56 China Jul : 0.00 15.80 5.75 14.40 21.40 0.15 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-364-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 3.64 107.04 39.18 106.32 39.01 4.53 United States : 0.20 34.28 0.09 27.82 6.46 0.30 Total foreign : 3.44 72.76 39.09 78.51 32.55 4.23 Major exporters 3/ : 1.31 34.81 0.10 8.46 26.35 1.41 Argentina : 0.36 14.00 0.00 0.46 13.40 0.50 Brazil : 0.94 16.60 0.10 6.65 10.15 0.84 India : 0.00 4.21 0.00 1.34 2.80 0.07 Major importers 4/ : 0.94 23.79 26.52 44.93 5.13 1.18 EU-15 : 0.75 12.98 19.90 27.60 5.11 0.92 China : 0.00 9.54 1.40 10.93 0.01 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.53 108.59 38.31 108.61 38.48 4.34 United States : 0.30 33.87 0.05 27.58 6.35 0.30 Total foreign : 4.23 74.72 38.26 81.03 32.13 4.05 Major exporters 3/ : 1.41 34.09 0.10 8.50 25.77 1.32 Argentina : 0.50 13.67 0.00 0.47 13.27 0.43 Brazil : 0.84 16.98 0.10 6.82 10.20 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.21 2.30 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 25.95 25.41 46.17 5.15 1.23 EU-15 : 0.92 12.67 19.25 26.84 5.11 0.89 China : 0.00 11.88 0.60 12.46 0.01 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 4.34 110.26 39.12 110.51 39.06 4.15 United States : July : 0.30 34.69 0.06 28.30 6.49 0.25 Total foreign : July : 4.05 75.57 39.06 82.20 32.57 3.90 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.32 34.88 0.10 8.68 26.27 1.35 Argentina Jul : 0.43 13.75 0.00 0.48 13.24 0.46 Brazil Jul : 0.90 17.38 0.10 6.96 10.52 0.89 India Jul : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.25 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.23 25.40 26.20 46.66 5.11 1.05 EU-15 Jul : 0.89 12.50 18.90 26.45 5.08 0.76 China Jul : 0.00 11.49 1.50 12.98 0.02 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-364-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 2.61 24.56 7.86 24.53 8.17 2.33 United States : 0.63 8.20 0.04 7.10 1.08 0.69 Total foreign : 1.98 16.36 7.82 17.43 7.09 1.64 Major exporters 3/ : 0.90 10.04 0.84 4.71 6.28 0.80 Argentina : 0.33 3.16 0.00 0.11 3.08 0.31 Brazil : 0.42 3.93 0.21 2.73 1.50 0.33 EU-15 : 0.15 2.95 0.63 1.87 1.70 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.60 2.94 2.19 5.33 0.08 0.32 China : 0.58 1.97 0.95 3.12 0.08 0.30 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.41 0.00 0.02 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.33 24.79 7.22 24.73 7.42 2.19 United States : 0.69 8.04 0.04 7.39 0.57 0.81 Total foreign : 1.64 16.75 7.18 17.34 6.85 1.38 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 9.96 0.80 4.83 5.97 0.76 Argentina : 0.31 3.05 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.27 Brazil : 0.33 4.03 0.22 2.86 1.40 0.31 EU-15 : 0.17 2.88 0.58 1.86 1.59 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.32 3.25 1.58 4.91 0.08 0.16 China : 0.30 2.45 0.60 3.12 0.08 0.15 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 2.19 25.21 7.40 25.21 7.64 1.95 United States : July : 0.81 8.29 0.04 7.55 0.79 0.79 Total foreign : July : 1.38 16.92 7.36 17.66 6.85 1.15 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.76 10.03 0.73 4.86 6.00 0.67 Argentina Jul : 0.27 3.07 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.25 Brazil Jul : 0.31 4.12 0.15 2.89 1.42 0.27 EU-15 Jul : 0.18 2.84 0.58 1.86 1.59 0.15 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.16 3.24 1.85 5.09 0.05 0.11 China Jul : 0.15 2.37 0.90 3.27 0.05 0.10 Pakistan Jul : 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.26 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-364-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World : 43.87 84.65 25.28 84.93 23.98 -0.15 45.05 United States : 3.89 13.92 0.44 10.40 4.34 -0.44 3.94 Total foreign : 39.99 70.74 24.84 74.53 19.64 0.29 41.11 Major exporters 5/ : 12.25 37.68 1.64 23.64 15.64 0.07 12.21 Pakistan : 1.52 6.30 0.93 7.00 0.01 0.03 1.71 India : 4.17 12.73 0.51 12.62 0.20 0.00 4.59 Central Asia 6/ : 1.56 6.60 0.01 1.24 5.39 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.92 4.03 4/ 0.26 3.57 0.00 1.11 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.52 5.40 0.20 1.18 4.88 0.02 2.04 Australia : 1.10 3.29 4/ 0.19 3.04 0.00 1.17 Argentina : 1.04 0.92 0.02 0.38 1.10 0.01 0.49 Major importers : 25.95 30.05 18.03 43.94 2.76 0.21 27.11 Brazil : 1.49 2.10 1.36 3.60 0.03 0.00 1.32 Mexico : 0.36 1.04 1.49 2.15 0.22 0.04 0.49 China : 19.96 20.70 0.36 19.20 0.68 0.00 21.13 Europe : 2.00 2.30 5.41 6.33 1.34 0.09 1.96 Turkey : 0.56 3.86 1.14 4.60 0.36 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.05 8.27 8.07 0.13 0.09 1.63 Indonesia : 0.14 0.01 2.33 2.20 0.00 0.04 0.24 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.47 1.46 0.04 0.00 0.41 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World : 45.05 86.64 27.23 90.84 27.05 0.28 40.76 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.10 6.80 0.01 4.10 Total foreign : 41.11 69.67 27.13 80.74 20.25 0.27 36.66 Major exporters 5/ : 12.21 39.63 1.95 24.94 15.59 0.07 13.18 Pakistan : 1.71 8.40 0.37 7.50 0.50 0.03 2.46 India : 4.59 12.30 1.20 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.74 Central Asia 6/ : 1.54 7.41 0.01 1.38 5.82 0.00 1.76 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.11 4.00 4/ 0.26 3.69 0.00 1.16 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.04 5.04 0.25 1.19 4.16 0.02 1.95 Australia : 1.17 3.20 4/ 0.19 3.00 0.00 1.18 Argentina : 0.49 0.58 0.05 0.38 0.35 0.01 0.37 Major importers : 27.11 27.29 18.94 48.06 3.58 0.20 21.51 Brazil : 1.32 2.70 1.40 3.95 0.05 0.00 1.42 Mexico : 0.49 0.67 1.85 2.40 0.15 0.03 0.43 China : 21.13 17.60 0.10 22.00 1.55 0.00 15.28 Europe : 1.96 2.61 5.48 6.31 1.52 0.08 2.14 Turkey : 0.59 3.68 1.90 5.40 0.18 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.63 0.04 8.21 8.00 0.13 0.10 1.65 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.00 0.05 0.26 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.55 1.50 0.04 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 1.38 million bales in 1998/99 and 2.13 million in 1999/2000. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-364-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World : June : 41.99 87.00 28.00 92.00 27.70 0.30 36.99 July : 40.76 87.37 28.62 92.27 28.10 0.32 36.05 United States : June : 4.10 19.00 0.05 10.20 8.00 0.05 4.90 July : 4.10 19.30 0.05 10.20 8.20 0.05 5.00 Total foreign : June : 37.89 68.00 27.95 81.80 19.70 0.25 32.09 July : 36.66 68.07 28.57 82.07 19.90 0.27 31.05 Major exporters 5/ : July : 13.18 38.59 1.73 25.37 16.02 0.07 12.04 Pakistan Jul : 2.46 7.30 0.30 7.60 0.40 0.03 2.03 India Jul : 4.74 12.30 1.00 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.39 Central Asia 6/Jul : 1.76 7.25 0.01 1.48 5.91 0.00 1.63 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Jul : 1.16 4.13 4/ 0.25 3.91 0.00 1.13 S. Hemis 8/ Jul : 1.95 5.43 0.22 1.18 4.45 0.02 1.95 Australia Jul : 1.18 3.20 4/ 0.20 3.00 0.00 1.18 Argentina Jul : 0.37 0.85 0.02 0.38 0.50 0.01 0.35 Major importers Jul : 21.51 26.60 20.53 48.71 2.68 0.20 17.06 Brazil Jul : 1.42 2.90 1.50 4.20 0.09 0.00 1.53 Mexico Jul : 0.43 0.30 2.30 2.50 0.08 0.03 0.43 China Jul : 15.28 17.50 0.70 22.00 0.70 0.00 10.78 Europe Jul : 2.14 2.36 5.66 6.43 1.55 0.08 2.09 Turkey Jul : 0.59 3.50 2.10 5.50 0.14 0.00 0.55 Sel. Asia 9/ Jul : 1.65 0.05 8.28 8.08 0.12 0.10 1.67 Indonesia Jul : 0.26 0.01 2.25 2.20 0.00 0.05 0.27 S. Korea Jul : 0.42 4/ 1.50 1.50 0.04 0.00 0.39 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.13 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-364-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1999 : III : 6838 4672 11624 7486 1362 8986 20610 1728 39.8 IV : 6522 5110 11756 7367 1393 8894 20650 1786 40.4 Annual : 26386 19278 46134 29741 5297 35590 81724 6912 162.7 : 2000 : I : 6653 4824 11595 7602 1284 9018 20613 1754 42.6 II : 6690 4475 11275 7750 1350 9240 20515 1750 43.3 III *: 6925 4625 11652 7700 1350 9190 20842 1760 40.8 IV *: 6250 4975 11333 7700 1375 9210 20543 1815 40.7 Annual : Jun Proj : 26258 18774 45467 31002 5409 36958 82425 7079 167.4 Jul Proj : 26518 18899 45855 30752 5359 36658 82513 7079 167.4 : 2001 : I *: 6400 4750 11261 8000 1275 9415 20676 1770 42.3 II *: 6425 4525 11054 8200 1375 9720 20774 1770 43.2 Annual : Jun Proj : 25100 18850 44365 32500 5450 38515 82880 7170 167.1 Jul Proj : 25100 19050 44565 32300 5450 38315 82880 7170 167.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1999 : III : 65.12 35.70 58.1 73.8 66.2 14.87 IV : 69.65 36.29 57.6 76.9 63.2 13.83 Annual : 65.56 34.00 58.1 69.0 65.6 14.36 : 2000 : I : 69.32 41.14 54.6 62.9 63.3 11.90 II : 71.50 50.43 55.7 69.0 62.1 12.03 III *: 66-68 48-50 57-59 72-74 63-65 12.70-13.10 IV *: 68-72 40-42 54-58 75-81 65-69 13.65-14.35 Annual : Jun Proj : 69-71 45-46 55-57 69-71 61-63 12.60-13.00 Jul Proj : 68-70 45-46 55-57 70-72 63-65 12.55-12.85 : 2001 : I *: 69-75 42-46 51-55 60-64 60-66 12.05-13.05 II *: 72-78 45-49 54-58 63-69 53-57 10.90-11.90 Annual : Jun Proj : 70-76 43-47 53-58 65-71 59-63 12.30-13.30 Jul Proj : 72-77 42-46 53-58 65-71 59-63 12.30-13.30 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-364-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1999 : 393 26493 2874 29760 2411 411 26938 69.0 2000 Proj. Jun : 411 26364 3029 29804 2515 365 26924 68.4 Jul : 411 26624 3029 30064 2515 390 27159 69.0 2001 Proj. Jun : 365 25206 3050 28621 2435 365 25821 65.0 Jul : 390 25206 3050 28646 2435 365 25846 65.1 : PORK : 1999 : 584 19308 827 20720 1285 489 18945 53.8 2000 Proj. Jun : 489 18804 1005 20298 1275 500 18523 52.1 Jul : 489 18929 1005 20423 1275 500 18648 52.5 2001 Proj. Jun : 500 18880 1005 20385 1305 500 18580 51.9 Jul : 500 19080 1005 20585 1305 500 18780 52.4 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1999 : 994 46284 3813 51092 3701 914 46476 124.7 2000 Proj. Jun : 914 45616 4148 50678 3796 879 46003 122.3 Jul : 914 46004 4148 51066 3796 904 46366 123.2 2001 Proj. Jun : 879 44514 4169 49562 3744 879 44939 118.6 Jul : 904 44714 4169 49787 3744 879 45164 119.2 : BROILERS : 1999 : 711 29468 4 30183 4866 796 24521 77.1 2000 Proj. Jun : 796 30711 4 31510 5030 850 25630 79.9 Jul : 796 30463 4 31263 5030 850 25383 79.1 2001 Proj. Jun : 850 32165 4 33019 5050 880 27089 83.7 Jul : 850 31967 4 32821 5050 880 26891 83.1 : TURKEYS : 1999 : 304 5230 1 5535 379 254 4902 17.9 2000 Proj. Jun : 254 5341 0 5595 425 250 4920 17.8 Jul : 254 5291 0 5546 434 250 4862 17.6 2001 Proj. Jun : 250 5380 1 5631 410 275 4945 17.8 Jul : 250 5380 1 5631 420 275 4935 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1999 : 1022 35252 7 36281 5638 1058 29585 95.7 2000 Proj. Jun : 1058 36600 6 37664 5874 1105 30683 98.2 Jul : 1058 36303 6 37367 5843 1105 30418 97.4 2001 Proj. Jun : 1105 38109 7 39221 5900 1165 32155 101.9 Jul : 1105 37911 7 39023 5870 1165 31987 101.4 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1999 : 2016 81537 3820 87372 9340 1972 76061 220.4 2000 Proj. Jun : 1972 82216 4154 88342 9669 1984 76687 220.4 Jul : 1972 82307 4154 88433 9638 2009 76784 220.6 2001 Proj. Jun : 1984 82623 4176 88783 9644 2044 77094 220.5 Jul : 2009 82625 4176 88810 9614 2044 77151 220.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-364-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2000 Projected : 2001 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1998 : 1999 : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.4 8.4 7.6 7.6 5.0 5.0 Production : 6657.9 6912.0 7079.1 7079.1 7170.0 7170.0 Imports : 5.8 7.4 4.0 5.5 5.0 5.0 Total supply : 6671.2 6927.8 7090.7 7092.2 7180.0 7180.0 : Use : Exports : 218.8 161.7 163.0 163.0 170.0 170.0 Hatching use : 921.8 941.7 967.4 967.4 1015.0 1015.0 Ending stocks : 8.4 7.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5522.2 5816.8 5955.3 5956.8 5990.0 5990.0 Per capita (number) : 244.9 255.5 259.2 259.3 258.6 258.6 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Proj 1/: 2000/01 Proj 1/ Commodity :1997/98:1998/99:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.9 5.8 7.4 7.4 7.0 7.3 Production : 156.5 161.2 167.1 167.1 167.0 167.0 Farm use : 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 155.1 159.8 165.8 165.8 165.7 165.7 Imports 2/ : 4.1 4.8 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 165.1 170.4 177.3 177.3 176.7 177.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 158.6 162.7 169.4 169.1 169.6 169.9 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.8 7.4 7.0 7.3 6.8 6.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.3 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.5 5.4 8.6 8.6 2.6 2.6 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 13.28 14.04 10.00- 10.00- 10.60- 10.55- : 10.20 10.20 11.60 11.55 : Class IV : NA NA 11.55- 11.45- 10.75- 10.75- : 11.85 11.75 11.95 11.95 : All milk 6/ : 14.60 15.37 12.60- 12.55- 12.20- 12.15- : 12.80 12.75 13.20 13.15 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 21 1 15 15 10 10 Cheese : 8 6 15 15 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 368 449 705 705 215 215 Dry whole milk : 15 12 35 35 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-364-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 19-year record of the differences between the July projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the July projection and the final estimate have averaged 14.6 million tons (2.8%) ranging from -34.6 to 23.7 million tons. The July projection has been below the estimate 11 times and above 8 times. Reliability of July Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.8 14.6 -34.6 23.7 11 8 U.S. : 2.7 1.8 -6.2 5.4 8 11 Foreign : 3.0 14.1 -32.0 21.1 11 8 Exports : World : 4.5 5.1 -14.5 11.3 10 9 U.S. : 8.4 2.8 -10.0 7.8 12 7 Foreign : 5.4 4.4 -10.5 7.1 11 8 Domestic use : World : 2.0 10.5 -25.7 17.4 12 7 U.S. : 6.4 1.9 -5.0 3.6 10 9 Foreign : 1.9 9.2 -22.4 15.9 13 6 Ending stocks : World : 9.4 11.6 -23.0 27.0 11 8 U.S. : 13.5 3.4 -10.2 13.9 11 8 Foreign : 9.7 9.3 -25.0 13.8 11 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 2.3 18.8 -33.8 53.6 9 10 U.S. : 8.0 16.6 -32.6 57.7 9 10 Foreign : 1.9 10.8 -25.1 24.2 7 12 Exports : World : 6.3 6.5 -11.1 17.8 12 7 U.S. : 16.0 8.5 -20.9 15.0 7 11 Foreign : 13.4 6.7 -13.3 14.2 10 9 Domestic use : World : 1.5 12.2 -20.4 26.7 8 11 U.S. : 4.4 7.8 -14.5 22.2 13 6 Foreign : 1.6 9.7 -9.8 30.5 9 10 Ending stocks : World : 14.5 18.0 -60.2 41.0 12 7 U.S. : 32.3 16.3 -50.5 39.5 8 11 Foreign : 12.2 8.9 -19.8 9.9 14 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.8 -24.0 13.0 15 4 U.S. : 4.1 0.2 -0.5 0.3 9 8 Foreign : 2.4 7.8 -24.3 12.7 15 4 Exports : World : 8.3 1.6 -6.7 0.7 12 7 U.S. : 6.9 0.2 -0.7 0.7 10 7 Foreign : 9.5 1.5 -6.5 0.7 13 6 Domestic use : World : 1.9 6.5 -22.4 22.9 12 7 U.S. : 7.2 0.2 -0.4 0.5 9 10 Foreign : 2.0 6.5 -22.9 22.8 12 7 Ending stocks : World : 12.9 5.0 -15.1 8.0 16 3 U.S. : 18.2 0.2 -0.5 0.8 10 8 Foreign : 14.1 5.1 -15.7 8.4 16 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-364-32 Reliability of July Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.9 4.4 -11.9 7.5 8 11 U.S. : 5.8 3.3 -9.8 9.7 10 9 Foreign : 6.1 3.4 -9.1 6.2 10 9 Exports : World : 6.2 1.9 -4.1 3.8 12 7 U.S. : 11.7 2.3 -6.0 6.2 10 9 Foreign : 18.8 1.6 -4.5 2.6 10 9 Domestic use : World : 3.6 4.2 -9.9 6.9 12 7 U.S. : 4.7 1.7 -4.4 4.5 12 7 Foreign : 4.0 3.1 -5.9 4.6 12 7 Ending stocks : World : 14.7 2.6 -4.7 7.8 11 8 U.S. : 34.3 2.5 -4.0 7.9 7 12 Foreign : 14.8 1.6 -3.7 3.5 12 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.2 3.4 -13.3 10.3 12 7 U.S. : 8.5 1.3 -2.8 3.6 12 7 Foreign : 4.1 2.8 -12.1 10.5 9 9 Exports : World : 5.0 1.2 -4.1 2.7 9 10 U.S. : 18.4 0.9 -2.1 2.8 12 7 Foreign : 6.6 1.2 -3.4 2.0 7 12 Mill use : World : 2.8 2.3 -7.8 3.4 8 11 U.S. : 7.2 0.6 -1.4 0.8 12 6 Foreign : 2.8 2.1 -7.1 4.0 7 12 Ending stocks : World : 15.1 5.1 -14.3 15.3 12 7 U.S. : 36.4 1.5 -3.4 2.4 8 11 Foreign : 14.9 4.4 -13.9 12.9 14 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 19 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-364-33 Reliability of United States July Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 9.1 615 -1103 2034 11 8 Exports : 17.8 322 -775 546 7 12 Domestic use : 4.9 287 -558 770 12 7 Ending stocks : 39.0 570 -1840 1343 9 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 11.0 77 -213 171 12 7 Exports : 17.1 42 -115 97 11 8 Domestic use : 11.4 53 -139 113 10 9 Ending stocks : 57.0 79 -174 157 7 12 : BARLEY : Production : 6.1 28 -87 62 6 12 Exports : 32.3 21 -92 43 13 5 Domestic use : 8.9 34 -47 87 9 9 Ending stocks : 21.4 40 -50 114 7 12 : OATS : Production : 10.5 31 -39 144 4 14 Exports : 81.2 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 6.1 23 -39 67 7 12 Ending stocks : 14.6 19 -33 68 9 10 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.6 1336 -3271 4432 13 6 Exports : 14.0 924 -2450 1764 9 10 Domestic use : 4.8 1044 -1550 4470 11 8 Ending stocks : 34.5 80 -204 413 7 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.5 620 -1753 1553 12 7 Exports : 26.0 409 -1550 1219 11 8 Domestic use : 3.2 390 -985 758 14 5 Ending stocks : 37.5 497 -916 1568 7 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.2 293 -258 694 12 6 Pork : 1.0 152 -277 400 9 9 Broilers : 0.7 147 -301 373 11 7 Turkeys : 1.3 51 -134 101 13 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.8 47 -48 115 13 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.6 0.8 -2.7 2.1 8 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 19 for crops and 18 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1999 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1998/99 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-364-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- END OF FILE -----