WASDE-365 August 11, 2000 WHEAT: Projected 2000/01 U.S. ending stocks of wheat are up 15 million bushels from last month as the larger crop more than offsets a 5 million bushel increase in food use. Forecast wheat production is 20 million bushels above last month because of higher spring wheat yields. Food use is up because of the recent upward revision in calendar 1999 mill grind by the Bureau of Census. The projected price range is unchanged from last month at $2.25 to $2.75 per bushel. Global 2000/01 production, use, and stocks projections are little changed in aggregate from last month, although there are several country changes. Lower production prospects in the EU and Ukraine are offset by increases for Kazakhstan, the United States, Canada, and India. Also, larger prospective stocks in the U.S. and Kazakhstan will offset much of the reduction in expected EU ending stocks. COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for U.S. 2000/01 feed grains is for expanding use to only partially offset gains in production to record levels, leaving ending stocks higher than last month and the largest since 1988/89. A record corn crop of 10.369 billion bushels is forecast, up 356 million from last month and 932 million above last year. The first survey-based yield forecast is a record 141.9 bushels per acre, 4.9 bushels above last month's adjusted trend yield. Projected 2000/01 ending stocks of corn are up 207 million bushels from last month because of smaller forecast beginning stocks and larger domestic use and exports. Projected exports are 75 million bushels above last month due to reduced competition from China and Argentina. The projected price range for corn is down 5 cents on each end from last month to $1.45 to $1.85 per bushel. Projected global coarse grain production is up from last month as larger crops in the U.S., Brazil, and Ukraine more than offset reductions for China, EU, Eastern Europe, and Canada. China and the U.S. account for most of this month's rise in projected 2000/01 global ending stocks of coarse grains. China's prospective corn production for 2000/01 is down 7 million tons this month to 115 million because of hot, dry conditions in the Northeast. Prospective corn exports for 2000/01 are reduced 1 million tons to 4 million, while expected 1999/2000 exports are unchanged at 9 million tons. While China's lower crop is expected to cause a large drop in their stocks during 2000/01, ending stocks are up 13 million tons from last month because of historical revisions in stocks and use estimates. While China has not published official grain stocks data, China's corn stocks for the period 1995/96 through 2000/01 have been raised significantly from last month based on statements by various Chinese officials. Also, price levels in China indicate stocks are not as tight as would have been shown using last month's stocks estimates and this month's reduced production. Historical production and trade data are official Chinese data and are not revised this month, but USDA's estimates of use have been reduced and stocks raised. RICE: USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2000/01 U.S. rice crop is 198.2 million cwt, up 4.7 million cwt from last month, but still 12.3 million cwt below the record 1999/2000 crop. The 2000/01 crop is the second largest on record. U.S. average yield for 2000/01 is estimated at a record 6,184 pounds per acre, up 221 pounds per acre from last month's estimate, and 276 pounds above 1999/2000. Harvested area for 2000/01 is lowered 40,000 acres, all in Louisiana. Combined medium/short grain production is estimated at 61.4 million cwt, down fractionally from last month but up 5.1 million cwt from 1999/2000. Long-grain rice production is estimated at 136.8 million cwt, up 4.8 million cwt from July, but 17.3 million cwt below the 1999/2000 record. The export projections for 1999/2000 and 2000/01 are unchanged from last month. Ending stocks for 2000/01 are increased to 39.5 million cwt, up 4.7 million cwt from last month, and up 1.8 million from 1999/2000. The season average price range projection for 2000/01 is lowered $0.50 per cwt on each end to $4.75-$5.75 per cwt compared to a revised $6.10 per cwt for 1999/2000. Global rice prices are expected to remain weak, with stiff competition for exports, particularly for milled rice. Global 2000/01 rice production, consumption, and ending stocks are lowered from last month. The decrease in global rice production is due primarily to smaller crops projected for China, Brazil, Vietnam, and North Korea. China's rice crop is lowered because of reduced area. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseeds stocks for 2000/01 are reduced slightly from last month as projected gains in crush and exports exceed an increase in U.S. oilseed production. U.S. oilseed production is projected at a record 92.2 million tons, up 10.2 million tons from last year, and up 1.2 million from last month. Soybean production is up 49 million bushels from last month to a record 2.989 billion, based on the survey-based yield forecast of 40.7 bushels per acre. This yield is exceeded only by the record 41.4 bushels set in 1994/95. Other oilseed production changes this month include a small increase in peanut production and a small decrease for cottonseed output. Projected U.S. oilseeds use is raised 1.2 million tons from last month, primarily due to increased crush and exports. Crush is increased to 1,625 million bushels based on improved soybean meal export prospects. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at a record 1,010 million bushels. Reduced oilseed crops in China and the EU-15 along with stock building in China to meet needs of recently opened crushing plants are boosting global trade prospects this month. U.S. season average soybean prices for 2000/01 are projected at $3.90 to $4.80 per bushel, down slightly from last month. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $140 to $165 per short ton, down from $140 to $170 last month. Soybean oil prices are projected at 15 to 18 cents per pound, unchanged from last month. Global oilseed production for 2000/01 is projected at a record 308.0 million tons, up 9.7 million tons from 1999/00, but down 0.4 million tons from last month. Soybean production, forecast at 169.1 million tons, is up 0.6 million tons from last month. A larger U.S. harvest offsets the reduction in China, where dry weather has reduced yield prospects. Other oilseed production is reduced 1.0 million tons this month, led by declines in EU-15 rapeseed production, that was hurt by poor late season weather. China peanut production prospects are also lower this month, as yield prospects are reduced because of dry conditions in the North China plain. Global oilseed crush and trade for 2000/01 are up this month, due mostly to increased soybean consumption prospects for China. Soybean stocks data for China are shown for the first time, and show stocks building in 1999/2000 as imports are forecast to reach a record 9.0 million tons. China's soybean stocks are forecast to be drawn down in 2000/01 as crush increases to a record 16.0 million tons, up 9 percent from 1999/2000. China soybean imports are forecast to decline to 7.25 million tons in 2000/01, but up significantly from last month. Increased soybean import demand for China will be met by increased exports from the U.S. and South America. Domestic crush prospects are reduced in South America to meet rising export demand as supply availabilities are tight. Other significant changes this month include a reduction in EU rapeseed crush due to a smaller rapeseed crop. EU soybean meal consumption prospects have been revised upward for 1999/2000 and 2000/01, in part due to smaller rapeseed meal availabilities. SUGAR: Projected fiscal year 2000/01 sugar production is decreased 110,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Lower cane sugar production more than offsets higher beet sugar output. Cane sugar production in Florida and Louisiana is decreased 130,000 tons, based on lower sugarcane yields. Lower production in Hawaii is consistent with revised expectations for 1999/2000. Beet sugar production is increased 50,000 tons, due to higher forecast sugarbeet yields than projected last month. Production implications from the announced payment-in-kind program will not be projected until further details are known. For 1999/2000, cane sugar production in Hawaii is decreased 40,000 tons, due to a lower-than-expected harvest through June. Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) are reduced 92,191 tons, accounting for the additional surrender of Certificates for Quota Eligibility (CQE) and a 5,000-ton reduction in expected shortfall. Imports for re-export are increased 25,000 tons, based on the current pace to date. Exports are reduced 79,000 tons as a result of the CQE surrender and a 25,000-ton decrease in core business. Season- ending stocks include 186,180 tons of CCC-owned sugar from purchases and loan forfeitures. The stocks to use ratio is 18.4 percent, compared with 18.5 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecasts for total meat production in 2000 and 2001 are raised from last month due to greater beef production. Feedlot placements remain high, supporting continued large beef production through the fall. Little apparent retention of heifers for breeding raises the possibility that large numbers of heifers may continue to be placed on feed into next year. Low feed prices and strong demand for Choice grade beef have encouraged cattle feeders to keep cattle on feed longer which has led to an increase in forecast weights. Thus, production in 2000 is raised to 26.8 billion pounds, 1.5 percent above 1999, and production in 2001 is raised to 25.6 billion pounds. Pork production is little changed. Broiler production is reduced slightly from last month as lower egg sets should result in a more gradual rate of increase than previously forecast. The forecast for second-half 2000 turkey production is raised as turkey hatchery data indicates egg sets have been increasing. Forecast prices are little changed in 2000 and 2001 despite forecast higher total meat production. Strong consumer demand for meat is supporting livestock prices despite record levels of meat production. Milk production is reduced slightly in 1999/2000 but increased in 2000/01. Low feed prices are expected to encourage continued expansion in the cow herd through 2000. However, this increase is being partly offset by slower-than-expected growth in milk production per cow. Product prices are forecast to remain weak through most of the period. As a result, the forecasts for Class III, Class IV, and all milk prices have been reduced from last month. With increased milk production in 2000/01, CCC removals of nonfat dry milk are increased to reflect the large offers to the CCC through the end of the price support program in December 2000. COTTON: The U.S. estimates for 2000/01 reflect lower production and ending stocks relative to last month. The first survey-based U.S. crop estimate indicates production of 19.2 million bales, 13 percent above last year and the highest since 1994/95. The domestic mill use and export estimates are unchanged. Ending stocks are pegged at 4.9 million bales, 100,000 below last month and 26.6 percent of total use. World production and consumption for 2000/01 are virtually unchanged. However, world beginning and ending stock estimates are slightly lower than the July forecast. Beginning stocks are reduced in China, due to higher 1999/2000 domestic use and exports, and in Syria, due to historical revisions. Increases in the production estimates for Brazil, Australia and others nearly offset decreases for Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Mali, and the United States. Consumption is raised for China, Syria, and Taiwan, and reduced for Indonesia and others. Lower world trade estimates primarily reflect lower import demand by Brazil and Indonesia, combined with diminished supplies in the major exporting countries of Central Asia, Syria, and Mali. World ending stocks are reduced to 35.1 million bales, down 900,000 from last month. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: JOSEPH W. GLAUBER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on September 12, 2000. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report will be released on the following dates in 2000: September 12, October 12, November 9, and December 12. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. 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WASDE-365-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 1,873.03 2,214.49 256.17 1,846.98 367.51 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,866.11 2,233.62 265.05 1,876.21 357.42 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 1,868.76 2,211.67 265.49 1,882.67 328.99 August : 1,868.90 2,226.32 265.71 1,882.56 343.76 Wheat : 1998/99 : 588.78 727.51 121.85 590.74 136.76 1999/00 (Est.) : 585.67 722.44 127.49 595.99 126.45 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 581.25 707.90 126.95 593.84 114.06 August : 581.30 707.75 127.05 594.42 113.33 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 890.21 1,038.08 107.43 867.44 170.64 1999/00 (Est.) : 877.26 1,047.90 114.30 880.47 167.43 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 888.27 1,041.48 113.52 887.36 154.12 August : 889.51 1,056.94 113.64 887.11 169.83 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 394.05 448.90 26.89 388.79 60.11 1999/00 (Est.) : 403.18 463.29 23.27 399.75 63.54 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 399.23 462.28 25.02 401.48 60.81 August : 398.09 461.63 25.02 401.04 60.60 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 346.71 411.61 86.99 246.80 77.81 1999/00 (Est.) : 332.65 416.14 87.75 250.54 77.86 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 344.91 429.21 91.46 250.07 87.68 August : 355.05 438.71 93.47 251.86 93.39 Wheat : 1998/99 : 69.33 91.79 28.36 37.69 25.74 1999/00 (Est.) : 62.66 90.98 29.65 35.47 25.86 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 61.03 89.61 29.94 33.91 25.76 August : 61.59 90.17 29.94 34.05 26.19 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 271.47 312.69 55.95 205.37 51.37 1999/00 (Est.) : 263.38 317.52 55.30 211.40 50.82 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 277.77 331.96 58.74 212.40 60.82 August : 287.21 340.76 60.76 214.05 65.95 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 5.91 7.12 2.68 3.75 0.69 1999/00 (Est.) : 6.61 7.65 2.80 3.67 1.18 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 6.10 7.64 2.77 3.77 1.10 August : 6.25 7.78 2.77 3.76 1.25 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-365-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 1,526.32 1,802.88 169.17 1,600.18 289.70 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,533.46 1,817.48 177.29 1,625.67 279.56 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 1,523.85 1,782.46 174.03 1,632.60 241.32 August : 1,513.85 1,787.60 172.24 1,630.70 250.37 Wheat : 1998/99 : 519.45 635.71 93.49 553.06 111.02 1999/00 (Est.) : 523.01 631.46 97.83 560.52 100.59 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 520.22 618.29 97.01 559.93 88.30 August : 519.71 617.58 97.11 560.37 87.14 Coarse grains 5/ : 1998/99 : 618.73 725.39 51.49 662.07 119.27 1999/00 (Est.) : 613.88 730.38 58.99 669.07 116.61 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 610.50 709.53 54.78 674.96 93.31 August : 602.29 716.18 52.88 673.06 103.88 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 388.14 441.78 24.20 385.05 59.42 1999/00 (Est.) : 396.57 455.64 20.47 396.08 62.36 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 393.13 454.64 22.24 397.71 59.71 August : 391.85 453.85 22.24 397.27 59.35 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1998/99 : 84.72 128.21 23.69 85.13 44.78 1999/00 (Est.) : 87.03 131.81 27.32 91.16 40.14 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 87.37 128.12 28.10 92.27 36.05 August : 87.31 127.45 27.64 92.47 35.15 : United States 1998/99 : 13.92 18.25 4.34 10.40 3.94 1999/00 (Est.) : 16.97 21.01 6.80 10.10 4.10 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 19.30 23.45 8.20 10.20 5.00 August : 19.16 23.31 8.20 10.20 4.90 : Foreign 3/ 1998/99 : 70.81 109.96 19.34 74.73 40.84 1999/00 (Est.) : 70.06 110.80 20.52 81.06 36.04 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 68.07 104.67 19.90 82.07 31.05 August : 68.15 104.14 19.44 82.27 30.25 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-365-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 294.15 322.48 54.76 240.62 31.40 1999/00 (Est.) : 298.27 329.67 63.61 248.16 29.03 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 308.42 333.49 59.41 249.07 29.41 August : 307.99 337.02 60.56 250.62 32.06 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 164.55 170.09 53.94 163.50 6.31 1999/00 (Est.) : 169.35 175.66 54.40 169.44 6.41 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 170.68 177.10 55.14 170.71 5.90 August : 171.82 178.22 55.09 172.14 5.82 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 80.60 87.28 31.61 78.90 7.42 1999/00 (Est.) : 84.95 92.37 32.03 82.49 8.21 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 86.13 94.19 32.76 85.73 7.59 August : 86.26 94.47 32.66 85.94 7.72 : : United States Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 84.36 91.49 22.72 47.81 10.78 1999/00 (Est.) : 82.02 93.35 27.37 47.70 8.56 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 91.01 100.16 27.27 48.71 14.21 August : 92.21 101.22 28.39 49.02 13.78 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 36.81 38.34 6.71 31.30 0.33 1999/00 (Est.) : 36.58 38.12 6.57 31.21 0.35 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 37.35 38.97 6.73 31.93 0.31 August : 37.58 39.13 6.95 31.86 0.31 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 9.44 11.86 1.64 9.22 1.00 1999/00 (Est.) : 9.34 11.85 1.05 9.60 1.20 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 9.52 12.38 1.31 9.96 1.10 August : 9.58 12.50 1.30 9.99 1.21 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 209.78 230.98 32.04 192.81 20.62 1999/00 (Est.) : 216.26 236.32 36.24 200.46 20.48 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 217.41 233.33 32.14 200.36 15.20 August : 215.78 235.80 32.18 201.60 18.28 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 127.74 131.74 47.22 132.20 5.97 1999/00 (Est.) : 132.77 137.54 47.84 138.23 6.06 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 133.33 138.13 48.42 138.78 5.59 August : 134.24 139.10 48.14 140.28 5.51 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 71.16 75.42 29.97 69.67 6.42 1999/00 (Est.) : 75.61 80.53 30.98 72.89 7.02 2000/01 (Proj.) : July : 76.61 81.81 31.45 75.76 6.49 August : 76.68 81.97 31.36 75.95 6.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-365-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 65.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 Harvested : 59.0 53.9 54.4 54.4 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 43.2 42.7 41.2 41.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 722 946 950 950 Production : 2,547 2,302 2,243 2,263 Imports : 103 95 100 100 Supply, total : 3,373 3,343 3,293 3,313 Food : 910 925 935 940 Seed : 81 92 86 86 Feed and residual : 394 286 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,385 1,303 1,246 1,251 Exports : 1,042 1,090 1,100 1,100 Use, total : 2,427 2,393 2,346 2,351 Ending stocks : 946 950 947 962 CCC inventory : 128 104 Free stocks : 818 846 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.65 2.50 2.25- 2.75 2.25- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1999/00 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 435 233 136 87 55 946 Production : 1,055 448 453 247 99 2,302 Supply, total 3/ : 1,490 741 589 340 182 3,343 Domestic use : 548 293 284 89 89 1,303 Exports : 486 230 170 160 44 1,090 Use, total : 1,034 523 454 249 133 2,393 Ending stocks, total : 456 218 135 91 50 950 : 2000/01 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 456 218 135 91 50 950 Production : 883 499 471 295 115 2,263 Supply, total 3/ : 1,341 779 606 393 195 3,313 Domestic use : 514 282 268 96 91 1,251 Exports : 470 230 190 170 40 1,100 Use, total : 984 512 458 266 131 2,351 Ending stocks, total : August : 357 267 148 127 64 962 July : 360 243 144 122 77 947 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price receive by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-365-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 101.0 96.6 98.6 * 98.6 Harvested : 88.9 86.3 88.9 * 89.1 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.05 3.12 3.22 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 38.1 51.3 51.4 50.8 Production : 271.2 263.1 277.6 287.0 Imports : 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 312.3 317.1 331.6 340.4 Feed and residual : 152.3 156.1 156.2 157.8 Food, seed & industrial : 52.7 54.9 55.9 55.9 Domestic, total : 205.0 211.0 212.1 213.7 Exports : 55.9 55.3 58.7 60.8 Use, total : 261.0 266.3 270.8 274.5 Ending stocks, total : 51.3 50.8 60.8 65.9 CCC inventory : 0.3 0.4 Free stocks : 51.0 50.4 Outstanding loans : 10.3 10.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 80.2 77.4 79.6 * 79.6 Harvested : 72.6 70.5 73.1 * 73.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 134.4 133.8 137.0 * 141.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,308 1,787 1,819 1,794 Production : 9,759 9,437 10,013 10,369 Imports : 19 15 10 10 Supply, total : 11,085 11,239 11,842 12,174 Feed and residual : 5,471 5,625 5,650 5,700 Food, seed & industrial : 1,846 1,920 1,960 1,960 Domestic, total : 7,318 7,545 7,610 7,660 Exports : 1,981 1,900 2,050 2,125 Use, total : 9,298 9,445 9,660 9,785 Ending stocks, total : 1,787 1,794 2,182 2,389 CCC inventory : 12 15 Free stocks : 1,775 1,779 Outstanding loans : 391 400 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 1.80 1.50- 1.90 1.45- 1.85 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield is derived from an econometric model fit over 1975-99 using a trend variable, July rainfall and temperatures, and planting progress as of mid-May. WASDE-365-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.3 8.8 * 8.8 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.5 8.1 * 8.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.3 69.7 69.5 * 69.5 Beginning stocks : 49 65 65 65 Production : 520 595 564 578 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 569 660 629 643 Feed and residual : 262 290 260 275 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 55 55 Total domestic : 307 345 315 330 Exports : 197 250 240 240 Use, total : 504 595 555 570 Ending stocks, total : 65 65 74 73 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.66 1.55 1.25- 1.65 1.20- 1.60 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 5.2 5.7 * 5.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.9 4.8 5.2 * 5.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.0 59.2 58.7 * 58.8 Beginning stocks : 119 142 112 112 Production : 352 282 307 308 Imports : 30 28 30 30 Supply, total : 501 451 449 450 Feed and residual : 161 137 145 145 Food, seed & industrial : 170 172 172 172 Total domestic : 331 309 317 317 Exports : 28 30 25 30 Use, total : 360 339 342 347 Ending stocks, total : 142 112 107 103 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.98 2.15 1.65- 2.05 1.65- 2.05 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.9 4.7 4.5 * 4.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.8 2.5 2.5 * 2.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.2 59.6 61.2 * 61.8 Beginning stocks : 74 81 76 76 Production : 166 146 151 153 Imports : 108 99 100 100 Supply, total : 348 326 327 329 Feed and residual : 196 180 180 180 Food, seed & industrial : 69 68 68 68 Total domestic : 265 249 248 248 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 266 250 250 250 Ending stocks, total : 81 76 77 79 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.10 0.85- 1.25 0.95- 1.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-99 period. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in Crop Production. WASDE-365-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.58 3.27 * 3.27 Harvested : 3.32 3.56 3.25 * 3.21 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,669 5,908 5,963 * 6,184 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.9 22.1 37.7 37.7 Production : 188.1 210.5 193.5 198.2 Imports : 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.0 Supply, total : 226.5 243.3 242.2 246.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 119.1 116.6 119.4 119.4 Exports, total 4/ : 85.3 89.0 88.0 88.0 Rough : 25.8 26.5 26.0 26.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 59.6 62.5 62.0 62.0 Use, total : 204.4 205.6 207.4 207.4 Ending stocks : 22.1 37.7 34.8 39.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.3 69.2 69.5 69.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.89 6.10 5.25- 6.25 4.75- 5.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.61 2.74 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,430 5,629 Beginning stocks : 14.5 14.1 30.5 30.5 Production : 141.6 154.1 132.0 136.8 Supply, total 7/ : 164.7 177.7 172.3 177.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.9 77.7 79.9 79.9 Exports 8/ : 70.7 69.5 68.0 68.0 Use, total : 150.6 147.2 147.9 147.9 Ending stocks : 14.1 30.5 24.4 29.2 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.71 0.82 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,548 6,835 Beginning stocks : 12.3 6.8 6.0 6.0 Production : 46.4 56.3 61.5 61.4 Supply, total 7/ : 60.7 64.3 68.7 68.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 38.9 39.5 39.5 Exports 8/ : 14.6 19.5 20.0 20.0 Use, total : 53.9 58.4 59.5 59.5 Ending stocks : 6.8 6.0 9.2 9.0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1998/99-1.0; 1999/00-1.2 2000/01-1.2. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantitiy of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield is calculated using an Olympic average (high and low years excluded) by State and type of rice. A five year Olympic average for the years 1995-1999 is used in all States except California where a ten year Olympic average for the years 1990-1999 is used. WASDE-365-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 72.0 73.8 74.5 * 74.5 Harvested : 70.4 72.5 73.5 * 73.5 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.9 36.5 40.0 * 40.7 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 200 348 290 280 Production : 2,741 2,643 2,940 2,989 Imports : 3 3 3 5 Supply, total : 2,944 2,994 3,233 3,273 Crushings : 1,590 1,570 1,610 1,625 Exports : 805 975 970 1,010 Seed : 88 90 90 90 Residual : 113 80 83 84 Use, total : 2,595 2,715 2,752 2,808 Ending stocks : 348 280 480 465 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.93 4.65 3.90- 4.90 3.90 - 4.80 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,382 1,520 1,785 1,875 Production : 18,081 17,765 _3/ 18,275 18,445 Imports : 82 90 90 90 Supply, total : 19,546 19,375 20,150 20,410 Domestic : 15,655 16,300 16,650 16,650 Exports : 2,371 1,200 1,750 1,800 Use, total : 18,027 17,500 18,400 18,450 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,875 1,750 1,960 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 19.90 15.70 15.00- 15.00- : 18.00 18.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 218 330 325 325 Production : 37,792 37,335 _3/ 38,235 38,535 Imports : 99 60 65 65 Supply, total : 38,109 37,725 38,625 38,925 Domestic : 30,657 30,400 31,200 31,250 Exports : 7,122 7,000 7,150 7,400 Use, total : 37,779 37,400 38,350 38,650 Ending stocks : 330 325 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 138.50 165.00 140.00- 140.00- : 170.00 165.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,565 million bushels. * Planted and harvested acres reported in June 30 Acreage report for July. July projected yield based on trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-365-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :====================== : : Estimate : July August ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,679 1,639 1,937 1,909 Production 2/3/ : 8,374 9,035 9,083 8,973 Beet sugar : 4,423 4,950 4,730 4,780 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,951 4,085 4,353 4,193 Imports 2/ : 1,824 1,635 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,256 1,112 NA NA Other 6/ : 568 523 448 448 Total supply : 11,877 12,309 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 230 150 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,066 10,250 10,385 10,385 Domestic food use : 9,872 10,115 10,225 10,225 Other 8/ : 194 135 160 160 Miscellaneous 9/ : (58) 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,238 10,400 10,560 10,560 Ending stocks 2/ 10/ : 1,639 1,909 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 16.0 18.4 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2000/01 are based on August Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1999/2000 (projected 2000/01): FL 1,976 (1,960); HI 320 (300); LA 1,680 (1,750); TX 105 (160); PR 4 (23). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1999/2000 available TRQ includes projected shortfall of 60,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. 10/ For 1999/2000, includes 141,240 tons of purchased sugar and 44,940 tons of forfeited sugar held by the Commodity Credit Corporation. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-365-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.39 14.87 15.55 * 15.53 Harvested : 10.68 13.42 14.60 * 14.19 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 625 607 635 * 648 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.89 3.94 4.10 4.10 Production : 13.92 16.97 19.30 19.16 Imports : 0.44 0.10 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 18.25 21.01 23.45 23.31 Domestic use : 10.40 10.10 10.20 10.20 Exports : 4.34 6.80 8.20 8.20 Use, total : 14.75 16.90 18.40 18.40 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.44 0.01 0.05 0.01 Ending stocks : 3.94 4.10 5.00 4.90 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 60.2 44.9 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1998/99 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-June. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. *For July, planted area reported in June 30 Acreage. Projected harvested area based on 1990-1999 average acreage abandonment by State, adjusted for current conditions. Projected yield based on 1990-1999 average yield by State. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2000/01 is 26.8 percent. WASDE-365-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 138.73 588.78 120.80 107.84 590.74 121.85 136.76 United States : 19.66 69.33 2.80 10.73 37.69 28.36 25.74 Total foreign : 119.07 519.45 118.00 97.11 553.06 93.49 111.02 Major exporters 4/ : 22.28 161.67 25.40 53.56 106.43 74.83 28.09 Argentina : 0.42 12.40 0.03 0.25 4.35 8.20 0.30 Australia : 1.35 22.11 0.06 2.79 5.11 16.00 2.40 Canada : 6.01 24.08 0.15 4.22 8.16 14.71 7.37 EU-15 : 14.50 103.09 25.17 46.31 88.81 35.93 18.02 Major importers 5/ : 50.49 178.61 35.91 18.76 212.35 5.40 47.25 Brazil : 0.55 2.19 7.12 0.20 9.30 0.00 0.55 China : 33.46 109.73 0.82 5.00 115.66 0.44 27.90 East. Europe : 7.64 33.23 2.17 11.95 31.59 4.45 7.00 N. Africa : 4.41 14.20 16.79 0.31 28.32 0.23 6.85 Pakistan : 3.21 18.69 3.13 0.40 21.28 0.00 3.75 Selected other : India : 10.08 66.35 1.99 0.35 67.34 0.00 11.08 FSU-12 6/ : 17.24 55.85 5.31 17.07 64.24 8.50 5.65 Russia : 8.00 27.00 2.50 11.15 34.94 1.56 1.00 Kazakstan : 3.00 4.70 0.02 1.10 4.62 2.30 0.80 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 136.76 585.67 126.68 104.94 595.99 127.49 126.45 United States : 25.74 62.66 2.57 7.78 35.47 29.65 25.86 Total foreign : 111.02 523.01 124.11 97.16 560.52 97.83 100.59 Major exporters 4/ : 28.09 162.84 25.83 55.05 107.53 83.03 26.20 Argentina : 0.30 15.00 0.03 0.30 4.50 10.50 0.33 Australia : 2.40 24.10 0.05 3.30 5.63 17.50 3.43 Canada : 7.37 26.85 0.15 4.50 8.45 18.50 7.42 EU-15 : 18.02 96.89 25.60 46.95 88.95 36.53 15.03 Major importers 5/ : 47.25 175.17 33.63 17.36 213.37 4.60 38.08 Brazil : 0.55 2.50 7.00 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.55 China : 27.90 113.88 1.00 5.00 117.00 0.50 25.28 East. Europe : 7.00 28.65 2.23 10.55 30.39 3.33 4.15 N. Africa : 6.85 11.71 15.50 0.31 28.89 0.17 5.00 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.00 0.40 21.40 0.00 2.20 Selected other : India : 11.08 70.78 1.70 0.35 69.25 0.20 14.11 FSU-12 6/ : 5.65 64.94 7.84 17.38 65.21 6.80 6.42 Russia : 1.00 31.00 4.80 11.30 35.50 0.30 1.00 Kazakstan : 0.80 11.20 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.50 2.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-365-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 126.65 581.25 126.01 102.00 593.84 126.95 114.06 August : 126.45 581.30 126.01 101.77 594.42 127.05 113.33 United States : July : 25.86 61.03 2.72 6.12 33.91 29.94 25.76 August : 25.86 61.59 2.72 6.12 34.05 29.94 26.19 Total foreign : July : 100.79 520.22 123.29 95.88 559.93 97.01 88.30 August : 100.59 519.71 123.29 95.65 560.37 97.11 87.14 Major exporters 4/ : July : 26.20 171.56 25.05 57.73 111.01 85.75 26.05 August : 26.20 169.95 24.90 57.70 110.98 85.50 24.57 Argentina Jul : 0.33 15.50 0.03 0.45 4.75 10.50 0.60 Aug : 0.33 15.50 0.03 0.45 4.75 10.50 0.60 Australia Jul : 2.93 23.00 0.05 3.40 5.75 18.00 2.23 Aug : 3.43 23.00 0.05 3.40 5.75 18.00 2.73 Canada Jul : 7.42 26.00 0.15 4.50 8.45 19.00 6.12 Aug : 7.42 26.50 0.15 4.50 8.45 19.50 6.12 EU-15 Jul : 15.53 107.06 24.83 49.38 92.06 38.25 17.11 Aug : 15.03 104.95 24.68 49.35 92.03 37.50 15.13 Major importers 5/ : July : 38.28 162.18 37.23 14.36 209.00 3.15 25.53 August : 38.08 162.68 36.83 14.66 209.46 3.50 24.63 Brazil Jul : 0.55 2.30 7.20 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.55 Aug : 0.55 2.30 7.20 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.55 China Jul : 25.28 102.00 3.50 2.00 114.00 0.50 16.28 Aug : 25.28 102.00 3.50 2.00 114.00 0.50 16.28 East. Europe Jul : 4.15 27.00 3.08 10.45 28.65 2.18 3.40 Aug : 4.15 27.50 2.68 10.75 29.10 2.33 2.90 N. Africa Jul : 4.70 9.28 17.50 0.31 28.91 0.17 2.40 Aug : 5.00 9.28 17.50 0.31 28.91 0.17 2.70 Pakistan Jul : 2.40 21.00 0.05 0.50 21.75 0.00 1.70 Aug : 2.20 21.00 0.05 0.50 21.75 0.00 1.50 Selected other : India Jul : 14.11 74.00 0.05 0.50 71.50 0.20 16.46 Aug : 14.11 74.30 0.05 0.50 71.50 0.20 16.76 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 6.47 62.88 5.69 16.68 64.44 4.60 6.00 Aug : 6.42 63.38 5.69 16.18 63.94 4.60 6.95 Russia Jul : 1.00 34.00 3.00 11.10 35.30 0.50 2.20 Aug : 1.00 34.00 3.00 11.10 35.30 0.50 2.20 Kazakstan Jul : 2.52 7.00 0.02 1.50 5.00 3.50 1.03 Aug : 2.52 8.00 0.02 1.50 5.00 3.50 2.03 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-365-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 147.88 890.21 108.37 571.04 867.44 107.43 170.64 United States : 38.15 271.47 3.07 152.38 205.37 55.95 51.37 Total foreign : 109.73 618.73 105.30 418.66 662.07 51.49 119.27 Major exporters 4/ : 8.66 62.04 1.59 35.23 46.52 17.41 8.36 Argentina : 2.43 17.76 0.01 8.05 10.04 8.58 1.59 Australia : 1.14 9.60 0.02 3.86 5.12 4.98 0.66 Canada : 4.27 26.57 0.83 19.93 23.37 3.21 5.09 Major importers 5/ : 41.49 200.50 65.41 173.72 238.17 26.59 42.63 EU-15 : 21.99 105.55 17.34 73.16 97.33 23.23 24.31 East. Europe : 10.21 51.70 1.64 40.45 52.07 3.09 8.39 Japan : 2.64 0.15 20.92 16.55 21.27 0.00 2.44 Mexico : 2.85 24.70 9.10 17.47 33.50 0.02 3.13 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.94 3.12 13.33 18.06 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.49 7.83 6.10 8.33 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 37.08 144.19 2.62 90.40 127.90 3.36 52.63 FSU-12 6/ : 12.32 37.92 1.51 26.41 45.01 2.30 4.44 Russia : 7.42 18.95 1.19 13.62 25.64 0.14 1.78 Ukraine : 3.31 10.35 0.04 6.18 10.58 1.62 1.50 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.64 877.26 108.58 578.79 880.47 114.30 167.43 United States : 51.37 263.38 2.77 156.27 211.40 55.30 50.82 Total foreign : 119.27 613.88 105.80 422.52 669.07 58.99 116.61 Major exporters 4/ : 8.36 65.41 1.31 35.67 48.11 18.19 8.78 Argentina : 1.59 20.51 0.01 8.48 10.73 9.60 1.78 Australia : 0.66 8.00 0.02 3.54 4.65 3.42 0.61 Canada : 5.09 26.77 0.75 19.35 23.98 3.68 4.95 Major importers 5/ : 42.63 200.97 66.32 176.61 241.28 29.06 39.57 EU-15 : 24.31 103.05 16.16 72.64 96.60 25.90 21.02 East. Europe : 8.39 54.60 1.72 40.70 52.84 3.05 8.81 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.44 16.22 20.78 0.00 2.31 Mexico : 3.13 25.95 9.14 18.89 34.89 0.02 3.31 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.76 3.98 13.95 18.91 0.10 1.43 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 8.95 7.15 9.41 0.00 0.51 Selected other : China : 52.63 138.63 2.55 92.60 130.16 9.03 54.62 FSU-12 6/ : 4.44 40.87 2.05 26.60 41.69 1.77 3.89 Russia : 1.78 21.80 1.68 14.52 24.38 0.15 0.72 Ukraine : 1.50 9.95 0.06 6.17 9.37 0.85 1.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-365-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 153.21 888.27 110.47 587.53 887.36 113.52 154.12 August : 167.43 889.51 110.17 586.77 887.11 113.64 169.83 United States : July : 51.45 277.77 2.73 156.24 212.40 58.74 60.82 August : 50.82 287.21 2.73 157.90 214.05 60.76 65.95 Total foreign : July : 101.76 610.50 107.74 431.29 674.96 54.78 93.31 August : 116.61 602.29 107.44 428.88 673.06 52.88 103.88 Major exporters 4/ : July : 8.78 67.01 1.00 36.41 48.34 19.39 9.07 August : 8.78 66.51 1.00 36.81 48.64 18.89 8.77 Argentina Jul : 1.78 20.76 0.01 8.35 10.54 10.15 1.86 Aug : 1.78 20.76 0.01 8.65 10.84 9.85 1.86 Australia Jul : 0.61 8.56 0.02 3.55 4.53 3.96 0.68 Aug : 0.61 8.56 0.02 3.55 4.53 3.96 0.68 Canada Jul : 4.95 27.77 0.75 20.32 24.46 4.28 4.73 Aug : 4.95 27.27 0.75 20.22 24.36 4.08 4.53 Major importers 5/ : July : 40.47 196.44 66.51 174.86 237.77 27.75 37.90 August : 39.57 195.02 66.78 174.78 239.14 27.21 35.02 EU-15 Jul : 22.07 108.72 15.92 75.44 98.00 26.38 22.32 Aug : 21.02 108.07 15.92 75.52 99.80 25.87 19.34 East. Europe Jul : 8.81 44.30 2.00 35.31 47.64 1.23 6.25 Aug : 8.81 43.53 2.10 34.98 47.04 1.23 6.17 Japan Jul : 2.31 0.16 20.19 16.07 20.48 0.00 2.18 Aug : 2.31 0.16 20.19 16.07 20.48 0.00 2.18 Mexico Jul : 3.26 26.00 9.51 19.43 35.21 0.05 3.51 Aug : 3.31 26.00 9.53 19.44 35.23 0.02 3.60 Southeast Asia Jul : 1.33 14.86 3.90 14.17 19.00 0.10 0.98 Aug : 1.43 14.86 4.05 14.32 19.15 0.10 1.08 South Korea Jul : 0.51 0.49 8.95 7.15 9.36 0.00 0.60 Aug : 0.51 0.49 8.95 7.15 9.36 0.00 0.60 Selected other : China Jul : 38.78 132.60 2.75 99.47 136.30 5.03 32.80 Aug : 54.62 124.60 2.65 95.07 132.35 4.03 45.48 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 3.89 44.43 0.85 27.59 42.97 1.46 4.73 Aug : 3.89 45.53 0.85 27.94 43.62 1.61 5.03 Russia Jul : 0.72 25.75 0.53 14.70 24.68 0.30 2.02 Aug : 0.72 25.75 0.53 14.70 24.68 0.30 2.02 Ukraine Jul : 1.28 10.00 0.11 6.43 9.65 0.80 0.94 Aug : 1.28 10.70 0.11 6.78 10.05 0.80 1.24 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-365-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 98.10 605.94 75.55 402.21 580.87 75.51 123.17 United States : 33.22 247.88 0.48 138.98 185.88 50.31 45.39 Total foreign : 64.88 358.06 75.08 263.23 395.00 25.20 77.78 Major exporters 4/ : 2.36 21.20 0.57 8.00 13.86 8.53 1.73 Argentina : 1.54 13.50 0.00 4.85 6.45 7.88 0.71 South Africa : 0.82 7.70 0.57 3.15 7.41 0.65 1.02 Major importers 5/ : 17.96 95.12 50.21 95.00 134.92 11.68 16.69 EU-15 : 4.47 35.30 11.77 30.12 38.95 8.93 3.66 Japan : 1.45 0.00 16.34 12.10 16.44 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 1.50 17.79 5.62 7.51 23.04 0.02 1.85 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.74 3.12 13.14 17.85 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.08 7.52 5.92 7.62 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 35.98 132.95 0.26 87.00 114.30 3.34 51.55 FSU-12 6/ : 2.73 5.28 0.62 4.26 6.86 0.43 1.33 Russia : 0.55 0.80 0.52 1.05 1.71 0.01 0.15 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 123.17 605.35 75.74 417.23 600.48 79.73 128.04 United States : 45.39 239.72 0.38 142.88 191.65 48.26 45.58 Total foreign : 77.78 365.63 75.35 274.35 408.83 31.47 82.46 Major exporters 4/ : 1.73 25.70 0.35 9.00 14.92 10.50 2.36 Argentina : 0.71 16.00 0.00 5.00 6.80 9.00 0.91 South Africa : 1.02 9.70 0.35 4.00 8.12 1.50 1.45 Major importers 5/ : 16.69 101.73 50.17 100.12 139.86 10.85 17.88 EU-15 : 3.66 37.22 10.70 31.41 39.91 7.96 3.70 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.25 12.15 16.35 0.00 1.26 Mexico : 1.85 19.00 4.60 7.65 23.10 0.02 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.56 3.98 13.76 18.71 0.10 1.43 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.50 6.80 8.55 0.00 0.51 Selected other : China : 51.55 128.08 0.15 90.00 116.95 9.00 53.83 FSU-12 6/ : 1.33 5.46 0.81 4.70 6.35 0.15 1.10 Russia : 0.15 1.10 0.70 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-365-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 114.27 610.06 76.65 427.58 607.86 78.85 116.48 August : 128.04 612.97 76.30 425.65 607.95 78.22 133.05 United States : July : 46.21 254.34 0.25 143.52 193.30 52.07 55.43 August : 45.58 263.39 0.25 144.79 194.57 53.98 60.68 Total foreign : July : 68.06 355.72 76.40 284.06 414.55 26.78 61.04 August : 82.46 349.57 76.05 280.86 413.38 24.24 72.38 Major exporters 4/ : July : 2.36 26.00 0.05 9.00 15.10 10.50 2.81 August : 2.36 26.00 0.05 9.50 15.50 10.20 2.71 Argentina Jul : 0.91 16.50 0.00 5.10 6.90 9.50 1.01 Aug : 0.91 16.50 0.00 5.40 7.20 9.20 1.01 South Africa Jul : 1.45 9.50 0.05 3.90 8.20 1.00 1.80 Aug : 1.45 9.50 0.05 4.10 8.30 1.00 1.70 Major importers 5/ : July : 19.23 96.40 50.17 98.60 137.63 10.14 18.03 August : 17.88 96.20 50.42 99.40 139.23 9.11 16.16 EU-15 Jul : 5.20 38.64 10.58 31.28 39.36 8.92 6.14 Aug : 3.70 38.44 10.68 31.93 40.81 7.92 4.09 Japan Jul : 1.26 0.00 16.10 12.10 16.15 0.00 1.21 Aug : 1.26 0.00 16.10 12.10 16.15 0.00 1.21 Mexico Jul : 2.29 19.00 5.00 8.40 23.60 0.05 2.64 Aug : 2.34 19.00 5.00 8.40 23.60 0.02 2.72 Southeast Asia Jul : 1.33 14.66 3.90 13.98 18.80 0.10 0.98 Aug : 1.43 14.66 4.05 14.13 18.95 0.10 1.08 South Korea Jul : 0.51 0.09 8.50 6.80 8.50 0.00 0.60 Aug : 0.51 0.09 8.50 6.80 8.50 0.00 0.60 Selected other : China Jul : 38.00 122.00 0.25 98.00 123.00 5.00 32.25 Aug : 53.83 115.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 4.00 44.98 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 1.10 6.68 0.26 5.04 6.65 0.25 1.15 Aug : 1.10 6.68 0.26 5.04 6.65 0.25 1.15 Russia Jul : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 Aug : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-365-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 3/ : 54.85 394.05 25.87 388.79 26.89 60.11 United States : 0.88 5.91 0.33 3.75 2.68 0.69 Total foreign : 53.98 388.14 25.54 385.05 24.20 59.42 Major exporters 4/ : 11.67 125.96 0.07 108.27 16.42 13.01 Thailand : 1.05 15.18 0.00 8.90 6.68 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 20.11 0.06 15.61 4.56 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.06 52.71 12.56 61.82 1.38 9.12 Indonesia : 3.53 32.10 3.90 35.50 0.00 4.03 Selected other : China : 26.72 139.10 0.17 136.00 2.71 27.29 Japan : 3.05 8.15 0.65 9.10 0.20 2.55 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 3/ : 60.11 403.18 21.10 399.75 23.27 63.54 United States : 0.69 6.61 0.34 3.67 2.80 1.18 Total foreign : 59.42 396.57 20.76 396.08 20.47 62.36 Major exporters 4/ : 13.01 130.10 0.09 112.74 12.45 18.01 Thailand : 0.65 15.85 0.00 9.00 6.00 1.50 Vietnam : 0.00 20.90 0.04 17.54 3.40 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 9.12 53.62 9.57 62.92 1.36 8.03 Indonesia : 4.03 32.10 2.00 35.70 0.00 2.43 Selected other : China : 27.29 138.94 0.20 137.00 2.80 26.63 Japan : 2.55 8.35 0.72 9.45 0.40 1.77 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 63.05 399.23 23.95 401.48 25.02 60.81 August : 63.54 398.09 24.00 401.04 25.02 60.60 United States : July : 1.19 6.10 0.35 3.77 2.77 1.10 August : 1.18 6.25 0.35 3.76 2.77 1.25 Total foreign : July : 61.86 393.13 23.60 397.71 22.24 59.71 August : 62.36 391.85 23.65 397.27 22.24 59.35 Major exporters 4/ : July : 18.01 130.00 0.09 113.39 14.30 20.41 August : 18.01 129.85 0.09 113.24 14.30 20.41 Thailand Jul : 1.50 15.85 0.00 9.10 6.60 1.65 Aug : 1.50 15.85 0.00 9.10 6.60 1.65 Vietnam Jul : 0.00 20.75 0.04 16.79 4.00 0.00 Aug : 0.00 20.60 0.04 16.64 4.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : July : 7.55 52.82 11.48 63.76 1.29 6.79 August : 8.03 52.62 11.53 63.76 1.29 7.11 Indonesia Jul : 2.43 32.00 3.00 36.00 0.00 1.43 Aug : 2.43 32.10 3.00 36.00 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China Jul : 26.63 137.20 0.25 136.75 3.00 24.33 Aug : 26.63 136.50 0.25 136.75 3.00 23.63 Japan Jul : 1.77 8.00 0.75 9.10 0.40 1.02 Aug : 1.77 8.00 0.75 9.10 0.40 1.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-365-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 25.18 159.85 40.24 135.72 159.53 38.63 27.11 United States : 5.44 74.60 0.08 43.26 48.74 21.90 9.48 Total foreign : 19.75 85.25 40.16 92.46 110.80 16.74 17.62 Major exporters 3/ : 13.74 54.30 1.10 39.17 42.18 14.43 12.53 Argentina : 7.23 20.00 0.50 17.51 18.27 3.23 6.22 Brazil : 6.50 31.30 0.60 21.01 23.20 8.90 6.30 Major importers 4/ : 5.38 18.63 31.72 37.96 50.32 0.88 4.53 EU-15 : 1.00 1.54 16.77 16.23 17.77 0.70 0.85 Japan : 0.63 0.16 4.81 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.62 China : 3.47 15.15 3.85 12.61 19.43 0.18 2.86 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 27.11 156.14 46.80 136.53 159.94 46.33 23.77 United States : 9.48 71.93 0.08 42.73 47.35 26.54 7.61 Total foreign : 17.62 84.21 46.72 93.81 112.59 19.80 16.16 Major exporters 3/ : 12.53 55.00 1.20 38.65 41.67 17.50 9.56 Argentina : 6.22 20.70 0.50 16.90 17.67 5.10 4.65 Brazil : 6.30 31.40 0.70 21.10 23.30 10.20 4.90 Major importers 4/ : 4.53 17.43 37.61 40.11 52.67 0.92 5.97 EU-15 : 0.85 1.14 16.79 15.98 17.27 0.71 0.79 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.80 3.68 4.96 0.00 0.64 China : 2.86 14.29 9.00 14.62 21.64 0.20 4.31 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 19.87 168.53 43.83 139.02 162.87 44.06 25.30 August : 23.77 169.08 45.50 140.83 164.71 45.61 28.02 United States : July : 7.88 80.01 0.08 43.82 48.51 26.40 13.07 August : 7.61 81.34 0.14 44.22 48.94 27.49 12.66 Total foreign : July : 11.99 88.51 43.75 95.20 114.36 17.66 12.23 August : 16.16 87.74 45.36 96.61 115.77 18.13 15.37 Major exporters 3/ : July : 9.66 57.30 1.00 39.65 42.65 15.30 10.01 August : 9.56 57.30 1.00 39.25 42.25 15.90 9.71 Argentina Jul : 4.55 21.50 0.50 17.00 17.75 4.10 4.70 Aug : 4.65 21.50 0.50 17.00 17.75 4.20 4.70 Brazil Jul : 5.10 32.80 0.50 22.00 24.20 8.90 5.30 Aug : 4.90 32.80 0.50 21.60 23.80 9.40 5.00 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.69 19.02 34.38 39.87 52.71 0.91 1.47 August : 5.97 18.20 35.99 41.46 54.31 0.88 4.97 EU-15 Jul : 0.85 1.15 16.33 15.72 16.95 0.75 0.64 Aug : 0.79 1.15 16.44 15.75 16.95 0.71 0.71 Japan Jul : 0.60 0.19 4.70 3.67 4.93 0.00 0.56 Aug : 0.64 0.19 4.70 3.67 4.96 0.00 0.58 China Jul : 0.00 15.80 5.75 14.40 21.40 0.15 0.00 Aug : 4.31 15.00 7.25 15.95 22.97 0.15 3.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-365-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 3.63 107.60 39.34 106.98 39.06 4.53 United States : 0.20 34.28 0.09 27.81 6.46 0.30 Total foreign : 3.44 73.31 39.25 79.17 32.60 4.23 Major exporters 3/ : 1.31 34.81 0.10 8.46 26.35 1.41 Argentina : 0.36 14.00 0.00 0.46 13.40 0.50 Brazil : 0.94 16.60 0.10 6.65 10.15 0.84 India : 0.00 4.21 0.00 1.34 2.80 0.07 Major importers 4/ : 0.94 24.21 26.67 45.58 5.06 1.18 EU-15 : 0.75 12.91 20.05 27.76 5.04 0.92 China : 0.00 10.02 1.40 11.41 0.01 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.53 108.27 38.85 108.88 38.42 4.34 United States : 0.30 33.87 0.05 27.58 6.35 0.30 Total foreign : 4.23 74.40 38.80 81.30 32.07 4.05 Major exporters 3/ : 1.41 33.77 0.10 8.46 25.49 1.32 Argentina : 0.50 13.67 0.00 0.47 13.27 0.43 Brazil : 0.84 16.66 0.10 6.83 9.88 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 25.74 25.95 46.47 5.18 1.23 EU-15 : 0.92 12.71 19.99 27.59 5.14 0.89 China : 0.00 11.62 0.40 12.01 0.01 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 4.34 110.26 39.12 110.51 39.06 4.15 August : 4.34 111.60 39.43 112.10 39.22 4.05 United States : July : 0.30 34.69 0.06 28.30 6.49 0.25 August : 0.30 34.96 0.06 28.35 6.71 0.25 Total foreign : July : 4.05 75.57 39.06 82.20 32.57 3.90 August : 4.05 76.64 39.38 83.75 32.51 3.80 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.32 34.88 0.10 8.68 26.27 1.35 August : 1.32 34.56 0.10 8.68 26.04 1.26 Argentina Jul : 0.43 13.75 0.00 0.48 13.24 0.46 Aug : 0.43 13.75 0.00 0.48 13.24 0.46 Brazil Jul : 0.90 17.38 0.10 6.96 10.52 0.89 Aug : 0.90 17.07 0.10 6.96 10.30 0.80 India Jul : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.25 2.50 0.00 Aug : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.25 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.23 25.40 26.20 46.66 5.11 1.05 August : 1.23 26.61 26.51 48.22 5.08 1.05 EU-15 Jul : 0.89 12.50 18.90 26.45 5.08 0.76 Aug : 0.89 12.52 19.72 27.31 5.06 0.76 China Jul : 0.00 11.49 1.50 12.98 0.02 0.00 Aug : 0.00 12.68 1.00 13.67 0.02 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-365-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 2.37 24.64 7.84 24.43 8.19 2.23 United States : 0.63 8.20 0.04 7.10 1.08 0.69 Total foreign : 1.74 16.44 7.80 17.33 7.11 1.54 Major exporters 3/ : 0.91 10.01 0.85 4.67 6.27 0.83 Argentina : 0.33 3.16 0.00 0.11 3.08 0.31 Brazil : 0.42 3.93 0.21 2.73 1.50 0.33 EU-15 : 0.16 2.92 0.64 1.83 1.69 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 3.02 2.19 5.29 0.08 0.21 China : 0.35 2.05 0.95 3.08 0.08 0.19 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.41 0.00 0.02 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.23 24.71 7.03 24.24 7.38 2.34 United States : 0.69 8.06 0.04 7.39 0.54 0.85 Total foreign : 1.54 16.65 6.99 16.84 6.84 1.49 Major exporters 3/ : 0.83 9.88 0.78 4.80 5.92 0.77 Argentina : 0.31 3.05 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.27 Brazil : 0.33 3.95 0.22 2.86 1.32 0.32 EU-15 : 0.20 2.88 0.56 1.83 1.62 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.18 1.42 4.43 0.08 0.31 China : 0.19 2.38 0.60 2.80 0.08 0.30 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 2.19 25.21 7.40 25.21 7.64 1.95 August : 2.34 25.46 7.45 25.51 7.58 2.16 United States : July : 0.81 8.29 0.04 7.55 0.79 0.79 August : 0.85 8.37 0.04 7.55 0.82 0.89 Total foreign : July : 1.38 16.92 7.36 17.66 6.85 1.15 August : 1.49 17.09 7.41 17.96 6.76 1.27 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.76 10.03 0.73 4.86 6.00 0.67 August : 0.77 9.96 0.71 4.86 5.88 0.69 Argentina Jul : 0.27 3.07 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.25 Aug : 0.27 3.07 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.25 Brazil Jul : 0.31 4.12 0.15 2.89 1.42 0.27 Aug : 0.32 4.04 0.15 2.89 1.35 0.27 EU-15 Jul : 0.18 2.84 0.58 1.86 1.59 0.15 Aug : 0.18 2.85 0.56 1.86 1.55 0.17 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.16 3.24 1.85 5.09 0.05 0.11 August : 0.31 3.44 1.85 5.32 0.05 0.23 China Jul : 0.15 2.37 0.90 3.27 0.05 0.10 Aug : 0.30 2.58 0.90 3.50 0.05 0.23 Pakistan Jul : 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.26 0.00 0.01 Aug : 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.26 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-365-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World : 43.49 84.72 25.23 85.13 23.69 -0.15 44.78 United States : 3.89 13.92 0.44 10.40 4.34 -0.44 3.94 Total foreign : 39.60 70.81 24.79 74.73 19.34 0.29 40.84 Major exporters 5/ : 11.87 37.68 1.64 23.80 15.34 0.07 11.98 Pakistan : 1.52 6.30 0.93 7.00 0.01 0.03 1.71 India : 4.17 12.73 0.51 12.62 0.20 0.00 4.59 Central Asia 6/ : 1.56 6.60 0.01 1.24 5.39 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.92 4.03 4/ 0.26 3.57 0.00 1.11 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.52 5.40 0.20 1.18 4.88 0.02 2.04 Australia : 1.10 3.29 4/ 0.19 3.04 0.00 1.17 Argentina : 1.04 0.92 0.02 0.38 1.10 0.01 0.49 Major importers : 25.94 30.05 17.98 43.90 2.76 0.21 27.10 Brazil : 1.49 2.10 1.36 3.60 0.03 0.00 1.32 Mexico : 0.36 1.04 1.49 2.15 0.22 0.04 0.49 China : 19.96 20.70 0.36 19.20 0.68 0.00 21.13 Europe : 1.99 2.30 5.37 6.28 1.34 0.09 1.94 Turkey : 0.56 3.86 1.14 4.60 0.36 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.05 8.27 8.07 0.13 0.09 1.63 Indonesia : 0.14 0.01 2.33 2.20 0.00 0.04 0.24 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.47 1.46 0.04 0.00 0.41 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World : 44.78 87.03 27.10 91.16 27.32 0.28 40.14 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.10 6.80 0.01 4.10 Total foreign : 40.84 70.06 27.00 81.06 20.52 0.27 36.04 Major exporters 5/ : 11.98 39.72 1.99 25.04 15.67 0.07 12.90 Pakistan : 1.71 8.40 0.37 7.50 0.50 0.03 2.46 India : 4.59 12.30 1.20 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.74 Central Asia 6/ : 1.54 7.41 0.01 1.38 5.82 0.00 1.76 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.11 4.00 4/ 0.26 3.69 0.00 1.16 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.04 5.09 0.28 1.21 4.24 0.02 1.93 Australia : 1.17 3.30 4/ 0.19 3.10 0.00 1.18 Argentina : 0.49 0.58 0.05 0.40 0.35 0.01 0.35 Major importers : 27.10 27.49 18.77 48.21 3.73 0.20 21.23 Brazil : 1.32 2.90 1.30 3.95 0.05 0.00 1.52 Mexico : 0.49 0.67 1.85 2.40 0.15 0.03 0.43 China : 21.13 17.60 0.10 22.20 1.70 0.00 14.93 Europe : 1.94 2.61 5.36 6.21 1.52 0.08 2.10 Turkey : 0.59 3.68 1.90 5.40 0.18 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.63 0.04 8.26 8.05 0.13 0.10 1.65 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.00 1.95 0.00 0.05 0.26 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.53 1.48 0.04 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 1.38 million bales in 1998/99 and 2.13 million in 1999/2000. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-365-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World : July : 40.76 87.37 28.62 92.27 28.10 0.32 36.05 August : 40.14 87.31 28.08 92.47 27.64 0.28 35.15 United States : July : 4.10 19.30 0.05 10.20 8.20 0.05 5.00 August : 4.10 19.16 0.05 10.20 8.20 0.01 4.90 Total foreign : July : 36.66 68.07 28.57 82.07 19.90 0.27 31.05 August : 36.04 68.15 28.03 82.27 19.44 0.27 30.25 Major exporters 5/ : July : 13.18 38.59 1.73 25.37 16.02 0.07 12.04 August : 12.90 38.15 1.73 25.50 15.47 0.07 11.72 Pakistan Jul : 2.46 7.30 0.30 7.60 0.40 0.03 2.03 Aug : 2.46 7.30 0.30 7.60 0.40 0.03 2.03 India Jul : 4.74 12.30 1.00 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.39 Aug : 4.74 12.30 1.00 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.39 Central Asia 6/Jul : 1.76 7.25 0.01 1.48 5.91 0.00 1.63 Aug : 1.76 6.81 0.01 1.48 5.52 0.00 1.58 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Jul : 1.16 4.13 4/ 0.25 3.91 0.00 1.13 Aug : 1.16 3.98 4/ 0.25 3.76 0.00 1.13 S. Hemis 8/ Jul : 1.95 5.43 0.22 1.18 4.45 0.02 1.95 Aug : 1.93 5.53 0.22 1.22 4.55 0.02 1.89 Australia Jul : 1.18 3.20 4/ 0.20 3.00 0.00 1.18 Aug : 1.18 3.30 4/ 0.20 3.10 0.00 1.18 Argentina Jul : 0.37 0.85 0.02 0.38 0.50 0.01 0.35 Aug : 0.35 0.85 0.02 0.42 0.50 0.01 0.29 Major importers Jul : 21.51 26.60 20.53 48.71 2.68 0.20 17.06 Aug : 21.23 26.90 20.04 48.74 2.68 0.20 16.56 Brazil Jul : 1.42 2.90 1.50 4.20 0.09 0.00 1.53 Aug : 1.52 3.20 1.20 4.20 0.09 0.00 1.63 Mexico Jul : 0.43 0.30 2.30 2.50 0.08 0.03 0.43 Aug : 0.43 0.30 2.30 2.50 0.08 0.03 0.43 China Jul : 15.28 17.50 0.70 22.00 0.70 0.00 10.78 Aug : 14.93 17.50 0.70 22.20 0.70 0.00 10.23 Europe Jul : 2.14 2.36 5.66 6.43 1.55 0.08 2.09 Aug : 2.10 2.36 5.52 6.31 1.55 0.08 2.04 Turkey Jul : 0.59 3.50 2.10 5.50 0.14 0.00 0.55 Aug : 0.59 3.50 2.10 5.50 0.14 0.00 0.55 Sel. Asia 9/ Jul : 1.65 0.05 8.28 8.08 0.12 0.10 1.67 Aug : 1.65 0.05 8.23 8.03 0.12 0.10 1.67 Indonesia Jul : 0.26 0.01 2.25 2.20 0.00 0.05 0.27 Aug : 0.26 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.00 0.05 0.27 S. Korea Jul : 0.42 4/ 1.50 1.50 0.04 0.00 0.39 Aug : 0.42 4/ 1.50 1.50 0.04 0.00 0.39 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.13 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-365-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1999 : III : 6838 4672 11624 7486 1362 8986 20610 1728 39.8 IV : 6522 5110 11756 7367 1393 8894 20650 1786 40.4 Annual : 26386 19278 46134 29741 5297 35590 81724 6912 162.7 : 2000 : I : 6653 4824 11595 7602 1284 9019 20614 1754 42.6 II : 6697 4470 11279 7706 1391 9235 20514 1743 43.1 III *: 7000 4600 11702 7650 1375 9160 20862 1760 40.8 IV *: 6425 4975 11508 7700 1400 9235 20743 1815 41.0 Annual : Jul Proj : 26518 18899 45855 30752 5359 36658 82513 7079 167.4 Aug Proj : 26775 18869 46084 30658 5450 36649 82733 7072 167.5 : 2001 : I *: 6475 4750 11336 8000 1275 9415 20751 1770 42.6 II *: 6450 4525 11079 8200 1375 9720 20799 1770 43.2 Annual : Jul Proj : 25100 19050 44565 32300 5450 38315 82880 7170 167.1 Aug Proj : 25575 19050 45040 32300 5450 38315 83355 7170 167.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1999 : III : 65.12 35.70 58.1 73.8 66.2 14.87 IV : 69.65 36.29 57.6 76.9 63.2 13.83 Annual : 65.56 34.00 58.1 69.0 65.6 14.36 : 2000 : I : 69.32 41.14 54.6 62.9 63.3 11.90 II : 71.59 50.43 55.7 69.0 62.1 12.03 III *: 65-67 47-49 57-59 72-74 63-65 12.35-12.65 IV *: 68-72 40-42 54-58 76-80 65-69 12.95-13.55 Annual : Jul Proj : 68-70 45-46 55-57 70-72 63-65 12.55-12.85 Aug Proj : 68-70 45-46 55-57 70-72 63-65 12.30-12.50 : 2001 : I *: 69-75 42-46 51-55 60-64 60-66 11.65-12.55 II *: 72-78 45-49 54-58 63-69 53-57 10.90-11.90 Annual : Jul Proj : 72-77 42-46 53-58 65-71 59-63 12.30-13.30 Aug Proj : 72-77 42-46 53-58 65-71 59-63 12.20-13.20 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-365-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1999 : 393 26493 2874 29760 2411 411 26938 69.0 2000 Proj. Jul : 411 26624 3029 30064 2515 390 27159 69.0 Aug : 411 26881 3029 30321 2515 390 27416 69.6 2001 Proj. Jul : 390 25206 3050 28646 2435 365 25846 65.1 Aug : 390 25681 3050 29121 2435 365 26321 66.3 : PORK : 1999 : 584 19308 827 20720 1285 489 18945 53.8 2000 Proj. Jul : 489 18929 1005 20423 1275 500 18648 52.5 Aug : 489 18899 1005 20393 1260 500 18633 52.5 2001 Proj. Jul : 500 19080 1005 20585 1305 500 18780 52.4 Aug : 500 19080 1005 20585 1305 500 18780 52.4 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1999 : 994 46284 3813 51092 3701 914 46476 124.7 2000 Proj. Jul : 914 46004 4148 51066 3796 904 46366 123.2 Aug : 914 46233 4148 51295 3781 904 46610 123.8 2001 Proj. Jul : 904 44714 4169 49787 3744 879 45164 119.2 Aug : 904 45189 4169 50262 3744 879 45639 120.4 : BROILERS : 1999 : 711 29468 4 30183 4866 796 24521 77.1 2000 Proj. Jul : 796 30463 4 31263 5030 850 25383 79.1 Aug : 796 30370 4 31169 5055 850 25264 78.7 2001 Proj. Jul : 850 31967 4 32821 5050 880 26891 83.1 Aug : 850 31967 4 32821 5050 880 26891 83.1 : TURKEYS : 1999 : 304 5230 1 5535 379 254 4902 17.9 2000 Proj. Jul : 254 5291 0 5546 434 250 4862 17.6 Aug : 254 5381 0 5635 419 250 4967 18.0 2001 Proj. Jul : 250 5380 1 5631 420 275 4935 17.8 Aug : 250 5380 1 5631 420 275 4935 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1999 : 1022 35252 7 36281 5638 1058 29585 95.7 2000 Proj. Jul : 1058 36303 6 37367 5843 1105 30418 97.4 Aug : 1058 36294 6 37357 5823 1105 30428 97.5 2001 Proj. Jul : 1105 37911 7 39023 5870 1165 31987 101.4 Aug : 1105 37911 7 39023 5830 1165 32027 101.6 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1999 : 2016 81537 3820 87372 9340 1972 76061 220.4 2000 Proj. Jul : 1972 82307 4154 88433 9638 2009 76784 220.6 Aug : 1972 82527 4154 88652 9603 2009 77039 221.3 2001 Proj. Jul : 2009 82625 4176 88810 9614 2044 77151 220.6 Aug : 2009 83100 4176 89285 9574 2044 77666 222.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-365-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2000 Projected : 2001 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1998 : 1999 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.4 8.4 7.6 7.6 5.0 6.5 Production : 6657.9 6912.0 7079.1 7072.1 7170.0 7170.0 Imports : 5.8 7.4 5.5 7.5 5.0 5.0 Total supply : 6671.2 6927.8 7092.2 7087.2 7180.0 7181.5 : Use : Exports : 218.8 161.7 163.0 163.0 170.0 170.0 Hatching use : 921.8 941.7 967.4 962.9 1015.0 1015.0 Ending stocks : 8.4 7.6 5.0 6.5 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5522.2 5816.8 5956.8 5954.8 5990.0 5991.5 Per capita (number) : 244.9 255.5 259.3 259.2 258.6 258.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Proj 1/: 2000/01 Proj 1/ Commodity :1997/98:1998/99:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.9 5.8 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 Production : 156.5 161.2 167.1 167.0 167.0 167.6 Farm use : 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 155.1 159.8 165.8 165.6 165.7 166.3 Imports 2/ : 4.1 4.8 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.9 Total cml. supply 2/ : 165.1 170.4 177.3 177.4 177.0 177.6 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 158.6 162.7 169.1 169.1 169.9 170.4 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.8 7.4 7.3 7.5 6.8 6.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.4 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.5 5.4 8.6 8.6 2.6 3.0 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 13.28 14.04 10.00- 9.85- 10.55- 10.10- : 10.20 10.05 11.55 11.10 : Class IV : NA NA 11.45- 11.35- 10.75- 10.70- : 11.75 11.65 11.95 11.90 : All milk 6/ : 14.60 15.37 12.55- 12.45- 12.15- 11.85- : 12.75 12.65 13.15 12.85 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 21 1 15 12 10 15 Cheese : 8 6 15 15 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 368 449 705 705 215 255 Dry whole milk : 15 12 35 35 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-365-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 19-year record of the differences between the August projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the August projection and the final estimate have averaged 12.8 million tons (2.4%) ranging from -32.1 to 19.5 million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 10 times and above 9 times. Reliability of August Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.4 12.8 -32.1 19.5 10 9 U.S. : 1.8 1.2 -3.4 4.2 7 12 Foreign : 2.6 12.1 -31.1 17.8 10 9 Exports : World : 4.2 4.7 -12.0 10.2 12 7 U.S. : 9.2 3.1 -10.0 7.8 8 10 Foreign : 5.3 4.3 -11.3 7.2 12 7 Domestic use : World : 1.8 9.6 -23.4 15.4 10 9 U.S. : 6.4 2.0 -3.7 3.6 9 10 Foreign : 1.7 8.5 -21.1 14.5 11 8 Ending stocks : World : 8.1 10.1 -23.2 23.7 12 7 U.S. : 14.1 3.5 -11.1 12.6 11 8 Foreign : 8.6 8.0 -23.8 11.2 11 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.8 14.6 -45.9 26.9 13 6 U.S. : 5.3 11.2 -21.8 31.4 13 6 Foreign : 1.7 10.1 -28.8 13.8 10 9 Exports : World : 5.9 6.1 -10.9 17.4 11 8 U.S. : 15.2 8.1 -19.7 14.9 8 10 Foreign : 14.0 7.1 -15.4 14.2 10 9 Domestic use : World : 1.5 12.5 -29.4 24.3 8 11 U.S. : 4.2 7.5 -15.9 17.0 12 7 Foreign : 1.6 9.8 -20.2 23.3 11 8 Ending stocks : World : 13.4 17.3 -53.5 22.3 14 5 U.S. : 25.8 12.7 -43.5 22.1 9 10 Foreign : 13.2 9.8 -19.6 9.6 15 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.5 -24.4 3.5 14 5 U.S. : 5.0 0.3 -0.6 0.4 11 8 Foreign : 2.3 7.5 -24.7 3.8 15 4 Exports : World : 9.0 1.6 -6.8 0.7 12 7 U.S. : 7.6 0.2 -0.7 0.9 10 7 Foreign : 10.3 1.6 -6.7 0.8 13 6 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.3 -23.5 3.5 14 5 U.S. : 7.0 0.2 -0.4 0.5 11 8 Foreign : 1.6 5.3 -24.0 3.7 13 6 Ending stocks : World : 12.5 4.7 -14.9 6.5 15 4 U.S. : 17.1 0.2 -0.4 0.7 10 8 Foreign : 13.3 4.7 -15.6 6.8 15 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-365-32 Reliability of August Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.9 3.4 -9.1 5.0 10 9 U.S. : 4.8 2.7 -6.4 6.2 8 11 Foreign : 6.1 3.5 -10.2 6.1 10 9 Exports : World : 5.8 1.8 -3.9 2.7 13 6 U.S. : 10.5 2.1 -4.9 5.5 10 9 Foreign : 19.0 1.6 -4.0 2.4 9 10 Domestic use : World : 3.4 4.0 -8.8 4.2 12 7 U.S. : 4.3 1.6 -3.9 3.5 13 6 Foreign : 4.1 3.3 -6.7 4.0 13 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.8 2.4 -6.5 5.9 8 11 U.S. : 35.6 2.6 -2.8 6.8 5 14 Foreign : 15.0 1.6 -4.3 3.3 11 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.7 3.0 -11.1 10.5 10 9 U.S. : 5.8 0.9 -1.9 3.9 11 7 Foreign : 3.9 2.7 -10.7 10.2 9 9 Exports : World : 5.0 1.2 -3.6 2.3 8 11 U.S. : 16.7 0.8 -2.1 2.0 10 9 Foreign : 6.2 1.1 -3.3 1.9 8 11 Mill use : World : 2.7 2.2 -7.1 3.3 7 12 U.S. : 6.2 0.5 -1.2 0.9 12 5 Foreign : 2.7 2.0 -6.4 4.0 7 12 Ending stocks : World : 13.7 4.6 -12.5 14.2 12 7 U.S. : 34.6 1.4 -2.4 3.1 7 12 Foreign : 13.8 4.1 -13.0 12.3 14 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 19 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-365-33 Reliability of United States August Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 5.8 401 -889 1079 12 7 Exports : 16.3 294 -750 546 7 12 Domestic use : 4.8 285 -553 510 12 7 Ending stocks : 30.2 446 -1674 740 9 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 6.1 41 -82 83 12 7 Exports : 18.0 43 -115 97 11 8 Domestic use : 9.7 45 -114 81 9 10 Ending stocks : 42.0 60 -201 133 7 12 : BARLEY : Production : 4.5 20 -63 67 8 11 Exports : 30.0 19 -82 38 9 8 Domestic use : 7.9 30 -47 82 10 8 Ending stocks : 16.6 30 -61 94 8 11 : OATS : Production : 6.8 19 -26 57 5 14 Exports : 81.2 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 4.3 16 -39 35 7 12 Ending stocks : 15.7 20 -40 37 10 9 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.3 1262 -2858 3592 13 6 Exports : 13.0 866 -2050 1800 9 10 Domestic use : 3.7 821 -1550 1909 14 5 Ending stocks : 35.1 80 -204 428 7 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.2 574 -1583 1173 11 8 Exports : 27.0 409 -1350 1219 9 10 Domestic use : 3.1 385 -1085 708 15 4 Ending stocks : 33.3 471 -941 1078 6 13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.8 927 -566 2536 11 6 Pork : 2.5 412 -1315 1242 7 10 Broilers : 2.0 435 -1337 622 12 5 Turkeys : 2.4 100 -444 235 12 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 97 -111 188 12 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.8 -6.9 4.6 10 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 19 for crops and 17 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1984 thru 1999 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1983/84 thru 1998/99 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-365-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- END OF FILE -----