Turkeys Raised ISSN: 1949-1972 Released September 26, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Turkeys Raised Down 2 percent from 2018 Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2019 is forecasted at 240 million, down 2 percent from the number raised during 2018. The top six states account for 67 percent of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2019. The largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 40.0 million turkeys, down 5 percent from the previous year. North Carolina produced 32.5 million turkeys, unchanged from last year. Arkansas produced 32.0 million turkeys, which is up 2 percent from the previous year. Indiana is up 8 percent from a year ago to 21.5 million turkeys. Missouri produced 19.0 million turkeys, unchanged from last year. Virginia is down 7 percent from the previous year at 15.7 million turkeys. Turkeys Raised - States and United States: 2018 and 2019 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Turkeys raised : 2019 as State :-------------------------------: percent : 2018 : 2019 : of 2018 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 head ----- percent : Arkansas .....................: 31,500 32,000 102 California ...................: 11,000 9,400 85 Indiana ......................: 20,000 21,500 108 Iowa .........................: 11,900 11,700 98 Michigan .....................: 5,300 5,400 102 Minnesota ....................: 42,000 40,000 95 Missouri .....................: 19,000 19,000 100 North Carolina ...............: 32,500 32,500 100 Ohio .........................: 6,700 5,900 88 Pennsylvania .................: 7,000 6,600 94 : South Dakota .................: 4,250 4,400 104 Virginia .....................: 16,800 15,700 93 West Virginia ................: 3,100 3,600 116 : Other States 1/ ..............: 33,700 32,300 96 : United States ................: 244,750 240,000 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkeys raised estimates are collected from all known operations raising 1,000 or more turkeys annually. NASS regional offices maintain a list of all known turkey grow-out operations. Approximately 377 turkey grow-out operations are contacted in September and February. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting, mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by state turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates from the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Turkeys raised estimates are based on a census of all known turkey grow-out operations, and therefore have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, mistakes in reporting or recording, and processing of the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process, and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised is shown in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 240 million turkeys by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent. Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates [Based on data for the past ten years] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :---------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :------------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : Below latest : Above latest ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 -------- ----- number ---- : Number raised ................: 1.2 2.1 2,328 500 5,100 4 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................... (202) 720-3570 Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ....................... (202) 690-3223 Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter.............................................. (202) 720-0585 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses ....... (202) 720-4751 Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Egg Products, Mink, Census of Aquaculture .. (202) 720-8784 Adam Peters - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery .............................. (202) 690-3237 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs .................................................... (202) 690-3676 Fatema Haque - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ................................ (202) 720-3244 Adam Peters - Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ....................................... 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