Pou 3-2 (8-07) Turkeys Raised National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 23, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Turkeys Raised" call Toby Paterson at 202-720-0585, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Turkeys Raised Up 4 Percent from 2006 The preliminary estimate of turkeys raised in the United States during 2007 is 272 million, up 4 percent from the number raised during 2006. The following six States are expected to account for about two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2007: Minnesota, at 46.0 million turkeys, is up 2 percent from last year; North Carolina, at 39.0 million turkeys, is up 4 percent from last year; Arkansas, at 31.0 million turkeys, is up 3 percent from a year ago; Virginia, at 21.5 million turkeys, is unchanged from 2006; Missouri, at 21.0 million turkeys, is up 5 percent from last year; and California, at 16.8 million turkeys, is up 6 percent from last year. Number Raised by State and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number Raised 1/ : 2007 State :-------------------------------------------------: as % of : 2006 2/ : 2007 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Percent : AR : 30,000 31,000 103 CA : 15,800 16,800 106 IL : 2,700 2,800 104 IN : 13,800 15,400 112 IA : 8,200 7,800 95 MD : 730 800 110 MA : 62 62 100 MI : 4,600 4,200 91 MN : 45,000 46,000 102 MO : 20,000 21,000 105 NJ : 33 34 103 NY : 630 620 98 NC : 37,500 39,000 104 ND : 1,800 2,000 111 OH : 5,100 5,100 100 PA : 10,500 10,500 100 SC : 9,600 10,500 109 SD : 4,200 4,600 110 VT : 55 60 109 VA : 21,500 21,500 100 WV : 3,600 3,700 103 : Oth Sts 3/ : 27,050 28,200 104 : US 4/ : 262,460 271,676 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes young turkeys lost. 2/ Revised. 3/ CO, KS, NE, OK, TX, UT, and WI combined to avoid disclosing individual operations. 4/ 28 State total. Turkeys Raised Estimates Data Sources: The monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey provides the basis for the preliminary turkeys raised estimates published in August. Turkey hatchery estimates are made in 18 States each month and provide the number of eggs in incubators, poults hatched, and net poults placed in production. United States import and export data are included in the preliminary estimates for turkeys raised. Estimation Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production, as well as breeder turkeys which reach maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in August. Final estimates, published in January, use indications from the December Growers Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when preliminary raised estimates are made in August. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data, and at the U.S. level, are usually less than one-half of one percent of the final estimate published in January. Estimates are also reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after five-year census data revisions have been published. Reliability: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates are based on a census of known active hatcheries and, therefore, have no sampling variability. However, estimates may be subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. These errors are minimized through strict quality controls in the edit and summarization process, and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 0.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 272 million turkeys by more than 0.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.7 percent. Reliability of Turkeys Raised Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between :Number of Years : Root : 90 Percent : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Percent 1,000 -------- 1,000 ------- Number : Number : Raised : 0.9 1.7 4,412 1,794 0 4,848 4 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 Darin Jantzi, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section(202) 720-3570 David Colwell - Cold Storage(202) 720-8784 Fleming Gibson - Egg Products, Poultry Slaughter, Catfish Processing, Mink . .(202) 690-3237 Darin Jantzi - Layers, Eggs(202) 720-3570 Sharyn Lavender - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey(202) 720-3244 Toby Paterson - Catfish Production, Trout Production, Census of Aquaculture, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised(202) 720-0585 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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USDA Data Users' Meeting October 29, 2007 Crowne Plaza Chicago O'Hare Rosemont, Illinois (847) 671-6350 The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 30, 2007. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For registration details or additional information for the Industry Outlook Meeting see the Livestock and Marketing Information Center (LMIC) homepage at www.lmic.info or contact Jim Robb at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.