Turkeys Raised ISSN: 1949-1972 Released September 30, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Turkeys Raised Down 4 Percent from 2014 Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2015 is forecasted at 228 million, down 4 percent from the number raised during 2014. A combination of six states account for nearly two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2015. The largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 40.0 million turkeys, down 12 percent from the previous year. North Carolina is up 2 percent from last year, producing 29.0 million turkeys. Arkansas produced 27.0 million turkeys, which is down 10 percent from the previous year. Indiana is up 1 percent from a year ago to 19.1 million turkeys. Missouri is up 6 percent from last year, producing 18.0 million turkeys. Virginia is up compared to the previous year by 4 percent at 17.4 million turkeys. Number of Turkeys Raised - States and United States: 2014 and 2015 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number raised : 2015 as State :-------------------------------: percent : 2014 : 2015 : of 2014 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 head ----- percent : Arkansas .....................: 30,000 27,000 90 California ...................: 11,000 11,100 101 Indiana ......................: 19,000 19,100 101 Iowa .........................: 10,500 8,400 80 Michigan .....................: 5,100 5,200 102 Minnesota ....................: 45,500 40,000 88 Missouri .....................: 17,000 18,000 106 North Carolina ...............: 28,500 29,000 102 Ohio .........................: 5,100 5,100 100 Pennsylvania .................: 7,000 7,100 101 : South Dakota .................: 4,500 4,000 89 Utah .........................: 4,000 3,600 90 Virginia .....................: 16,800 17,400 104 West Virginia ................: 3,100 3,100 100 : Other States 1/ ..............: 30,400 29,900 98 : United States ................: 237,500 228,000 96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey raised estimates are collected from all known operations raising 1,000 or more turkeys annually. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey grow-out operations. Approximately 400 turkey grow-out operations are contacted in September and February. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Turkey raised estimates are based on a census of all known turkey grow-out operations, and therefore have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process, and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised is shown in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 228 million turkeys by more than 1.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.9 percent. Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates [Based on data for the past ten years] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :---------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :------------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : Below latest : Above latest ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 -------- ----- number ---- : Number raised ................: 1.6 2.9 3,240 500 8,540 6 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........................................................ (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ................................. (202) 720-4447 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage ........................................................ (202) 720-4751 Heidi Gleich - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ......................................... (202) 720-0585 Michael Klamm - Poultry Slaughter ......................................................... (202) 720-3040 Tom Kruchten - Census of Aquaculture ...................................................... (202) 690-4870 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ................................................................ (202) 690-8632 Sammy Neal - Catfish Production, Egg Products, Mink, Trout Production, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ......................................................................... (202) 720-3244 Joshua O'Rear - Honey ..................................................................... (202) 690-3676 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Follow NASS" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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