Turkeys Raised ISSN: 1949-1972 Released September 30, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Turkeys Raised Down 5 Percent from 2012 Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2013 is forecasted at 242 million, down 5 percent from the number raised during 2012. A combination of six states account for nearly two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2013. The largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 45.0 million turkeys, down 2 percent from the previous year. North Carolina decreased by 3 percent from last year, producing 35.0 million turkeys. Arkansas produced 29.0 million turkeys, which is unchanged from the previous year. Indiana increased by 3 percent from a year ago to 17.0 million turkeys. Missouri decreased by 3 percent from last year, producing 17.0 million turkeys. Virginia decreased the number of turkeys raised compared to the previous year by 6 percent now at 16.0 million. Number of Turkeys Raised - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number raised 1/ : 2013 as State :-------------------------------: percent : 2012 : 2013 : of 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 head ----- percent : Arkansas .....................: 29,000 29,000 100 California ...................: 15,500 13,000 84 Indiana ......................: 16,500 17,000 103 Minnesota ....................: 46,000 45,000 98 Missouri .....................: 17,500 17,000 97 North Carolina ...............: 36,000 35,000 97 Ohio .........................: 5,500 5,000 91 Pennsylvania .................: 7,000 6,500 93 South Carolina ...............: 12,000 11,500 96 South Dakota .................: 4,600 4,500 98 : Utah .........................: 4,100 4,000 98 Virginia .....................: 17,000 16,000 94 West Virginia ................: 3,300 3,100 94 : Other States 2/ ..............: 39,500 35,400 90 : United States ................: 253,500 242,000 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes young turkeys lost. 2/ Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of approximately 600 United States turkey producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all turkey producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large operations were sampled more heavily than small operations. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising turkeys are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised is shown in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 242 million turkeys by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.2 percent. Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates [Based on data for the past ten years] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :---------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :------------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : Below latest : Above latest ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 -------- ----- number ---- : Number raised ................: 1.8 3.2 3,522 356 8,540 6 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ................................... (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ............ (202) 720-4447 Cody Brokmeyer - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised .. (202) 690-3237 David Colwell - Cold Storage ......................................... (202) 720-8784 Tom Kruchten - Census of Aquaculture, Honey .......................... (202) 690-4870 Dawn Keen - Egg Products ............................................. (202) 720-4448 Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ........................................... (202) 690-8632 Miste Salmon - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery .................... 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