Turkeys Raised ISSN: 1949-1972 Released September 24, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Turkeys Raised Down 3 percent from 2019 Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2020 forecasted at 222 million, down 3 percent from the number raised during 2019. The top six states account for 69 percent of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2020. The largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 39.0 million turkeys, down 2 percent from the previous year. Arkansas is up 3 percent from the previous year at 31.0 million turkeys produced. North Carolina produced 30.0 million turkeys, down 3 percent from a year ago. Indiana produced 20.0 million turkeys, unchanged from last year. Virginia is up 2 percent from last year at 16.3 million turkeys. Missouri produced 16.0 million turkeys, down 3 percent from the previous year. Turkeys Raised - States and United States: 2019 and 2020 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Turkeys raised : 2020 as State :-------------------------------: percent : 2019 : 2020 : of 2019 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 head ----- percent : Arkansas .....................: 30,000 31,000 103 California ...................: 8,500 8,000 94 Indiana ......................: 20,000 20,000 100 Iowa .........................: 11,700 11,700 100 Michigan .....................: 5,300 5,400 102 Minnesota ....................: 40,000 39,000 98 Missouri .....................: 16,500 16,000 97 North Carolina ...............: 31,000 30,000 97 Ohio .........................: 5,900 5,900 100 Pennsylvania .................: 6,200 6,600 106 : South Dakota .................: 4,500 4,500 100 Virginia .....................: 16,000 16,300 102 West Virginia ................: 3,100 3,300 106 : Other States 1/ ..............: 30,300 24,300 80 : United States ................: 229,000 222,000 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkeys raised estimates are collected from all known operations raising 1,000 or more turkeys annually. NASS regional offices maintain a list of all known turkey grow-out operations. Approximately 295 turkey grow-out operations are contacted in September and February. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting, mail and telephone. Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by state turkey or poultry associations. Revision Policy: Estimates from the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Turkeys raised estimates are based on a census of all known turkey grow-out operations, and therefore have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, mistakes in reporting or recording, and processing of the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process, and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised is shown in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 222 million turkeys by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.3 percent. Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates [Based on data for the past ten years] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :---------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :------------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : Below latest : Above latest ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent --------- 1,000 -------- ----- number ---- : Turkeys raised ...............: 1.8 3.3 2,898 500 11,000 5 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ..................................... (202) 692-0069 Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .................. (202) 690-3223 Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter......................................... (202) 720-0585 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses .. (202) 720-4751 Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ........... (202) 720-8784 Fatema Haque - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ........................... (202) 720-3244 Adam Peters - Honey, Honey Bee Colonies .................................. (202) 690-4870 Autumn Stone - Layers, Eggs, Egg Products ................................ (202) 690-3676 Takiyah Walker - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ...................... 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