Mt An 5-2 (7-05) Sheep and Goats National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 21, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Sheep" call Scott Hollis at 202-720-4751, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Sheep and Lamb Inventory Shows Slight Decrease All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on July 1, 2006 totaled 7.77 million head, down slightly from July 1, 2005, but 2 percent above July 1, 2004. Breeding sheep inventory at 4.64 million head on July 1, 2006 was down slightly from July 1, 2005. Market sheep and lambs (including newborn lambs), at 3.14 million head, were also down slightly from last July. The breeding herd consists of 3.78 million ewes one year old and older, 185,000 rams one year old and older, and 670,000 replacement lambs (including newborn lambs). Market lamb inventory at 3.06 million head was comprised of 1.80 million lambs under 65 pounds, 630,000 lambs 65-84 pounds, 370,000 lambs 85-105 pounds, and 260,000 lambs over 105 pounds. Market sheep inventory was 80,000 head. . The 2006 lamb crop in the United States is expected to total 4.10 million head, down 1 percent from the 2005 lamb crop of 4.13 million head. Lambs born during January through June 2006 totaled 3.62 million head or 88 percent of the yearly total. An additional 480,000 head are expected to be born during the period July through December 2006. Region 3 (CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY) accounted for 34.1 percent of all sheep and lambs. Region 2 (NM & TX) accounted for 18.9 percent, Region 1 (AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA) for 16.5 percent, Region 4 (IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK) for 15.4 percent, and Region 5 (all other States) for 15.1 percent. Total Goat and Kid Inventory Up 3 Percent This is the first publication of July 1 estimates of total goat inventory and kid crop for the United States. Estimates for July 2006 and 2005 are being published. Survey procedures can be found on page 6 of this report. All goat inventory on July 1, 2006 totaled 3.47 million head, up 3 percent from the previous July. Breeding goat inventory totaled 2.58 million head, up 3 percent from July 2005. All market goats and kids totaled 890,000 head, up 5 percent from the previous July. On July 1, 2006 meat and all other goats totaled 2.86 million head, up 4 percent from July 2005. Milk goat inventory remained steady at 320,000 head while angora goat numbers fell 2 percent to 285,000 head. The 2006 kid crop is expected to total 1.97 million head, up 7 percent from the 2005 kid crop of 1.84 million head. Contents Page All Sheep and Lambs Inventory, July 1, 2005-20061 Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory, July 1, 2005-20061 Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory, July 1, 2005-20063 Lamb Crop, 2006. . . . . . . . . 4 Goats, Number by Class, July 1, 2005-20065 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . . 7 All Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Sheep : 2006 : Breeding Sheep : Market Sheep : and Lambs : as % : and Lambs : and Lambs Regions 1/ :------------------: of :---------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Pct ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ : Region 1 : 1,300 1,280 98 805 800 495 480 : Region 2 : 1,500 1,470 98 1,000 980 500 490 : Region 3 : 2,650 2,650 100 1,460 1,460 1,190 1,190 : Region 4 : 1,200 1,200 100 665 665 535 535 : Region 5 : 1,150 1,170 102 725 730 425 440 : US : 7,800 7,770 100 4,655 4,635 3,145 3,135 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Breeding Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding Sheep-One Year Old & Older : :Total Breeding :-------------------------------------: Replacement : Sheep and Regions 1/ : Ewes : Rams : Lambs : Lambs :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 685 680 30 30 90 90 805 800 : Region 2 : 815 805 45 45 140 130 1,000 980 : Region 3 : 1,220 1,220 40 40 200 200 1,460 1,460 : Region 4 : 535 535 30 30 100 100 665 665 : Region 5 : 535 540 40 40 150 150 725 730 : US : 3,790 3,780 185 185 680 670 4,655 4,635 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Regions 1/ : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 140 140 125 60 465 15 480 : Region 2 : 330 105 20 15 470 20 490 : Region 3 : 810 155 95 110 1,170 20 1,190 : Region 4 : 240 140 85 55 520 15 535 : Region 5 : 275 90 45 20 430 10 440 : US : 1,795 630 370 260 3,055 80 3,135 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Region and United States, July 1, 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Region 1/ : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : Region 1 : 140 150 120 55 465 30 495 : Region 2 : 335 115 25 15 490 10 500 : Region 3 : 820 150 80 120 1,170 20 1,190 : Region 4 : 240 135 85 55 515 20 535 : Region 5 : 275 85 40 15 415 10 425 : US : 1,810 635 350 260 3,055 90 3,145 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, Number by Region and United States, 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Total : Breeding : Lambs per Regions : Lambs Born :Lambs Expected: Lamb : Ewes 1+ :100 Ewes 1+ 2/ : Jan-Jun 3/ : Jul-Dec 4/ : Crop : Jan 1 : Jan 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------------ 1,000 Head ------------------ Number : Region 1 : 530 200 730 703 104 : Region 2 : 540 120 660 792 83 : Region 3 : 1,280 20 1,300 1,074 121 : Region 4 : 600 60 660 489 135 : Region 5 : 670 80 750 599 125 : US : 3,620 480 4,100 3,657 112 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other States. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2006. 4/ Lambs expected to be born July through December 2006. Goats: Number by Class, United States, July 1, 2005-2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item : Total : Breeding : Market : Kid Crop1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Head : 2005 : Angora : 290,000 230,000 60,000 148,100 Milk : 320,000 270,000 50,000 199,500 Meat : 2,740,000 2,000,000 740,000 1,488,100 All : 3,350,000 2,500,000 850,000 1,835,700 : 2006 : Angora : 285,000 225,000 60,000 150,000 Milk : 320,000 270,000 50,000 215,000 Meat : 2,860,000 2,080,000 780,000 1,600,000 All : 3,465,000 2,575,000 890,000 1,965,000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Kid Crop for 2005 refers to the actual kids born during 2005. Kid Crop for 2006 is the kids born alive during January 1, through June 30, 2006 plus the kids expected to be born July through December 2006 Reliability of July 1 Sheep and Goats Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 39,000 operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 4,600 producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and lamb crop for the entire year of 2006. Estimation Procedures: These sheep and goat estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 2006 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for lamb crop in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for lamb crop estimates over the past 10 years is 2.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 4.10 million head by more than 2.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 5.4 percent. Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Estimate changes for Lamb Crop between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 100,000 head, ranging from 4,000 to 406,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of Lamb Crop has been below the latest estimate 10 times and above the latest estimate 0 times in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. July 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : Lamb Crop : 2.9 5.4 221.0 100 4 406 0 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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