Mt An 5-2 (7-10) Sheep and Goats Washington, D.C. Released July 23, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Sheep and Goats" call Everett Olbert at 202-720-4751, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Sheep and Lamb Inventory Down 2 Percent All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on July 1, 2010 totaled 6.90 million head, down 2 percent from July 1, 2009. Breeding sheep inventory at 4.16 million head on July 1, 2010 was down 3 percent from July 1, 2009. Market sheep and lambs (including newborn lambs), at 2.74 million head, were down 1 percent from last July. The breeding herd consists of 3.37 million ewes one year old and older, 175,000 rams one year old and older, and 620,000 replacement lambs (including newborn lambs). Market lamb inventory at 2.65 million head was comprised of 1.58 million lambs under 65 pounds, 550,000 lambs 65-84 pounds, 285,000 lambs 85-105 pounds, and 235,000 lambs over 105 pounds. Market sheep inventory was 90,000 head. Lamb Crop Down 2 Percent The 2010 lamb crop in the United States is expected to total 3.60 million head, down 2 percent from the 2009 lamb crop of 3.69 million head. Lambs born during January through June 2010 totaled 3.15 million head or 88 percent of the yearly total. An additional 450,000 head are expected to be born during the period July through December 2010. The 2010 expected lambing rate of 108 lambs per 100 ewes is unchanged from last year. Total Goat and Kid Inventory Down 1 Percent All goat and kid inventory on July 1, 2010 totaled 3.67 million head, down 1 percent from the previous July number. Breeding goat inventory totaled 2.74 million head, down 2 percent from July 2009. All market goats and kids totaled 925,000 head, unchanged from the previous July. On July 1, 2010, meat and all other goats totaled 3.11 million head, down 2 percent from July 2009. Milk goat inventory was up 1 percent increasing to 390,000 head while angora goat inventory, at 165,000 head, was unchanged from a year ago. Kid Crop Virtually Unchanged The 2010 kid crop in the United States is expected to total 1.95 million head, virtually unchanged from the 2009 kid crop. The 2010 expected kidding rate of 104 kids per 100 does is up 1 percent from the 2009 kid rate of 103. Special Note This will be the final issue of the July Sheep and Goats Report. Questions concerning the discontinuation of the July report should be directed to Joseph Prusacki, Director, Statistics Division at 202-720-3896. NASS will continue to publish the more detailed January Sheep and Goats Report. Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, United States, July 1, 2009-2010 ------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2010 as Class : 2009 : 2010 :% of 2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent : All Sheep and Lambs : 7,050 6,900 98 : Breeding Sheep and Lambs : 4,280 4,160 97 Replacement Lambs : Under One Year Old : 630 620 98 Ewes - One Year Old : and Older : 3,470 3,365 97 Rams - One Year Old : and Older : 180 175 97 : Market : 2,770 2,740 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Weight Class, United States, July 1, 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Period : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : 2009 : 1,600 560 290 240 2,690 80 2,770 2010 : 1,580 550 285 235 2,650 90 2,740 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lamb Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six Month Period, United States, 2009 and Preliminary Lamb Crop 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 3,240.0 87.8 3,150.0 87.5 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 450.0 12.2 450.0 12.5 : Total : 3,690.0 100.0 3,600.0 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, United States, 2009-2010 ----------------------------------------------------------- Period :Lamb Crop :Breeding Ewes 1+ :Lambs per 100 Ewes 1+ : : Jan 1 : Jan 1 ----------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 Head 1,000 Head Number : 2009 : 3,690 3,405 108 2010 : 3,600 3,340 108 ----------------------------------------------------------- Goats: Number by Class, United States, July 1, 2009-2010 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item : Total : Breeding : Market : Kid Crop1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Head : 2009 : Angora : 165,000 130,000 35,000 80,000 Milk : 385,000 325,000 60,000 252,000 Meat : 3,160,000 2,330,000 830,000 1,612,000 All : 3,710,000 2,785,000 925,000 1,944,000 : 2010 : Angora : 165,000 130,000 35,000 70,000 Milk : 390,000 330,000 60,000 265,000 Meat : 3,110,000 2,280,000 830,000 1,610,000 All : 3,665,000 2,740,000 925,000 1,945,000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Kid Crop for 2009 refers to the actual kids born during 2009. Kid Crop for 2010 is the kids born alive between January 1 and June 30, 2010 plus the kids expected to be born July through December 2010. Kid Crop: Per 100 Does 1+, United States, 2009-2010 ---------------------------------------------------------- Period : Kid Crop :Breeding Does 1+:Kids per 100 Does 1+ : : Jan 1 : Jan 1 ---------------------------------------------------------- : Head Head Number : 2009 : 1,944,000 1,895,000 103 2010 : 1,945,000 1,873,000 104 ---------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of July 1 Sheep and Goats Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 4,400 producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and lamb crop for the entire year of 2010. Estimation Procedures: These sheep and goat estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 2010 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for lamb crop in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for lamb crop estimates over the past 10 years is 3.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 3.60 million head by more than 3.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent. Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Estimate changes for lamb crop between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 121,000 head, ranging from 10,000 to 260,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of lamb crop has been below the latest estimate 3 times and above the latest estimate 7 times in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. July 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Lamb Crop : 3.6 6.6 238 121 10 260 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products .................. (202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices ........... (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats ............. (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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