Mt An 5-2 (7-09) Sheep and Goats National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 24, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Sheep and Goats" call Everett Olbert at 202-720-4751, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Sheep and Lamb Inventory Down 3 Percent All sheep and lamb inventory in the United States on July 1, 2009 totaled 7.05 million head, down 3 percent from July 1, 2008. Breeding sheep inventory at 4.28 million head on July 1, 2009 was down 3 percent from July 1, 2008. Market sheep and lambs (including newborn lambs), at 2.77 million head, were down 3 percent from last July. The breeding herd consists of 3.47 million ewes one year old and older, 180,000 rams one year old and older, and 630,000 replacement lambs (including newborn lambs). Market lamb inventory at 2.69 million head was comprised of 1.60 million lambs under 65 pounds, 560,000 lambs 65-84 pounds, 290,000 lambs 85-105 pounds, and 240,000 lambs over 105 pounds. Market sheep inventory was 80,000 head. Lamb Crop Down Slightly The 2009 lamb crop in the United States is expected to total 3.70 million head, down slightly from the 2008 lamb crop of 3.71 million head. Lambs born during January through June 2009 totaled 3.25 million head or 88 percent of the yearly total. An additional 450,000 head are expected to be born during the period July through December 2009. Total Goat and Kid Inventory Down 2 Percent All goat inventory on July 1, 2009 totaled 3.71 million head, down 2 percent from the previous July number. Breeding goat inventory totaled 2.79 million head, down 2 percent from July 2008. All market goats and kids totaled 925,000 head, down 2 percent from the previous July. On July 1, 2009 meat and all other goats totaled 3.16 million head, down 1 percent from July 2008. Milk goat inventory was up 4 percent increasing to 385,000 head while angora goat numbers fell 28 percent to 165,000 head. Kid Crop Virtually Unchanged The 2009 kid crop in the United States is expected to total 1.96 million head, virtually unchanged from the 2008 kid crop. The 2009 expected kidding rate of 103 kids per 100 does is up 1 percent from the 2008 kid rate of 102. Sheep and Lambs: Number by Class, United States, July 1, 2008-2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2009 as Class : 2008 : 2009 :% of 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent : All Sheep and Lambs : 7,270 7,050 97 : Breeding Sheep and Lambs : 4,400 4,280 97 Replacement Lambs : Under One Year Old : 630 630 100 Ewes - One Year Old : and Older : 3,590 3,470 97 Rams - One Year Old : and Older : 180 180 100 : Market : 2,870 2,770 97 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Sheep and Lambs Inventory: By Weight Class, United States, July 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Market Lambs : : :----------------------------------------------: : Market Period : Under : 65 : 85 : Over : : Market : Sheep and : 65 : to : to : 105 : Total : Sheep : Lambs : Pounds : 84 lbs :105 lbs : Pounds : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : 2008 : 1,630 585 330 250 2,795 75 2,870 2009 : 1,600 560 290 240 2,690 80 2,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lamb Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 2009 1/ ------------------------------------------------ Period : Number : % of Total ------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Head Percent : Jan-Jun 2/ : 3,250 87.8 Jul-Dec 3/ : 450 12.2 : Total : 3,700 100.0 ------------------------------------------------ 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Eastern States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ Lambs born alive January 1, 2009 through June 30, 2009. 3/ Lambs expected to be born July 1, 2009 through December 31, 2009. Lamb Crop: Per 100 Ewes 1+, United States, 2008-2009 ----------------------------------------------------------- Period :Lamb Crop :Breeding Ewes 1+ :Lambs per 100 Ewes 1+ : : Jan 1 : Jan 1 ----------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 Head 1,000 Head Number : 2008 : 3,710 3,540 105 2009 : 3,700 3,404 109 ----------------------------------------------------------- Goats: Number by Class, United States, July 1, 2008-2009 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item : Total : Breeding : Market : Kid Crop1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Head : 2008 : Angora : 230,000 185,000 45,000 96,000 Milk : 370,000 310,000 60,000 240,000 Meat : 3,200,000 2,360,000 840,000 1,627,000 All : 3,800,000 2,855,000 945,000 1,963,000 : 2009 : Angora : 165,000 130,000 35,000 80,000 Milk : 385,000 325,000 60,000 250,000 Meat : 3,160,000 2,330,000 830,000 1,630,000 All : 3,710,000 2,785,000 925,000 1,960,000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Kid Crop for 2008 refers to the actual kids born during 2008. Kid Crop for 2009 is the kids born alive between January 1 and June 30, 2009 plus the kids expected to be born July through December 2009. Kid Crop: Per 100 Does 1+, United States, 2008-2009 ---------------------------------------------------------- Period : Kid Crop :Breeding Does 1+:Kids per 100 Does 1+ : : Jan 1 : Jan 1 ---------------------------------------------------------- : Head Head Number : 2008 : 1,963,000 1,922,000 102 2009 : 1,960,000 1,897,000 103 ---------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of July 1 Sheep and Goats Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all sheep and goat producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 39,000 operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 4,600 producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and lamb crop for the entire year of 2009. Estimation Procedures: These sheep and goat estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness and with estimates from past years. A projected balance sheet for calendar year 2009 was also used. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared with the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve the current estimate. Previous year estimates are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising sheep and goats are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors, such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for lamb crop in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between the first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for lamb crop estimates over the past 10 years is 3.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 3.70 million head by more than 3.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent. Also shown in the table is a 10-year record showing the range between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate. Estimate changes for Lamb Crop between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 121,000 head, ranging from 4,000 to 260,000 head. The initial inventory estimate of Lamb Crop has been below the latest estimate 4 times and above the latest estimate 6 times in the last 10 years. Reliability of U.S. July 1 Sheep and Lamb Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Lamb Crop : 3.6 6.6 244 121 4 260 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch..............................................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section..............................................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products................................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.........................................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...................................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter....................................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats...........................................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows................................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs................................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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